Morton Muffley
Footballguy
All true, but a summary of your above kinda reads like an Onion headline:
- 74-year old man complains about weather, people, and government; refuses to change either perspective or approach
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Here is the current landscape using 538 numbers for all states Biden is currently leading in . . .
State, Percentage, Lead
DC 87.6 79.2
MA 65.7 36.6
VT 64.4 35.3
RI 64.3 32.9
HI 62.6 31.2
NY 62.0 29.9
MD 61.5 29.5
CA 61.1 29.0
CT 59.4 25.4
ME1 57.3 23.1
DE 57.7 22.7
WA 58.6 22.7
NJ 56.1 19.5
OR 57.5 19.5
IL 54.9 14.9
ME 53.6 14.2
CO 53.7 13.6
VA 52.9 11.7
NM 53.0 11.3
NH 53.6 11.3
MN 51.2 9.3
WI 51.7 8.5
MI 50.6 8.0
NE2 50.3 6.2
NV 49.7 6.1
PA 50.2 5.1
AZ 49.0 3.0
ME2 46.6 2.7
NC 49.1 2.1
IA 47.7 1.6
FL 48.7 1.4
GA 48.2 1.4
If the bar is a 3 point lead or greater for Biden to win that state, Biden would have 290 electoral votes (if he actually wins those states) . . . all the ones on this list down to AZ.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Well that’s it everything else breaks right for Trump. I don’t think you can just assume everything goes right for him and nothing for Biden.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Remove PA from the list I just posted and Biden would have 270 . . . and still win. You are also giving Trump every other state that is in play (which IMO probably won't happen).
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Just based on the probabilities Yudkin gave, everything below Penn. has a slightly higher percentage of a Trump win (maybe I'm misunderstanding what that percentage means). The ones in the Biden column with low 50s probability aren't locks either. I'm just saying there's a decent amount of variability here.
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PA, FL and AZ are key for Trump. He needs to win them all and not lose Georgia or Texas. If he doesn’t win both FL and AZ, PA may not matter.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Sure, it won't go exactly by the current numbers - but that could include surprise Trump wins in states that seem to favor Biden at this time as well.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IMO, the odds favor that there are more Biden votes unaccounted for in the polls than Trump votes. I think Trump rallied all his troops to vote last time, and he hasn't added many new recruits. The Democrats got complacent and a fair amount of voters didn't bother to vote in 2016. So there's a pocket of votes right there. I also think there are a bunch of other people that haven't voted in a while or never voted before that will break for Biden this time. And of course, I think there will be way more Trump to Biden defectors than there will be Hillary to Trump defectors. I don't expect that the millions of additional voters this time around are a majority of new Trump supporters. In reality, I think the "silent majority" this time around will be Democrats. If nothing else, a ton of Trump fans are far from silent.
![[scooter]](/data/avatars/m/22/22287.jpg?1659477690){kind=avatar}
[scooter]
Footballguy
(41% x 64%) + (59% x 35%) = 46.9% for Biden
(41% x 25%) + (59% x 56%) = 43.3% for Trump
If you give Trump 70% of uncommitted voters (assuming that Jorgensen's 2% holds), you end up with 49.2% for Biden and 48.8% for Trump.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Biden is polling at 51.7% and up 8.4% in WI. With the margin of error typically 3-4 points, if Jorgensen does get 2%, then the polls would have been off a lot more than expected. In 2016, Hillary was projected at 49.6, Trump at 44.3, and Johnson at 4.9. Trump won at 47.8, Hillary dropped to 47, and Johnson slipped to 3.6. Trump is now polling at 43.2 . . and there are fewer independent votes to pick up this time around. If he gets an Election Day bump the same as last time (+3.5), he would get to 46.7. If Biden fell the same as Hillary did (-2.6), then Biden would finish at 49.1.
Bottom line, Biden seems to be positioned way better than Hillary was in WI. The polls would have to be off by even more than they were in 2016 no matter who votes early and who still is yet to vote in 2020.
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I just that cases of Covid are exploding in these states as well as Minnesota. What I heard reported is that until now there was a large part of the population that thought it was blown out of proportion. Now 80%+ either have it or knows someone that has it . :(
ETA
Obviously very sad but for the purposes of this thread helps explain why Biden's lead keeps expanding.
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Straight fiction. Any Trump supporter who thinks this is anything close to reality better have some whiskey on hand next week.
Redwes25
Footballguy
Part of polling error is undecided and how they break as a poll makes assumptions around undecides, etc.. Big reason for polling error last time was basically all undecideds brook towards Trump. I think there are a lot less undecideds this time around. Also, the main reason for polling error was they didn't take into eduction into how folks vote. Almost all major polls are now adjusting for that factor. Could we have a situation where everything repeats and we have to discount everything by 3 percent (that is possible) but think unlikely.
Redwes25
Footballguy
We shall see how this plays out. I think Trump has a shot to win but he is the underdog given all information we have seen. I actually think Biden supporters are more realistic here and are not discounting a Trump win. Seems like Trump supporters on the other hand can only see the results on the election one way.
caustic
Footballguy
Redwes25
Footballguy
The chart you showed is an improvement for Trump from last presidential election. That seems like fiction to me - No way does he pick up 4 states that went to Hilary last election. That is why it is fiction.
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[scooter]
Footballguy
The disconnect is off the charts. One guy has NH (currently Biden +10.4) going to Biden, but has NM (currently Biden +12.9) going to Trump?! Another guy is speculating that the NM senate race (currently D+13.7) could flip. And lots of people are acting like Tony B's upcoming interview with Tucker Carlson will result in the imminent arrests of.......I dunno, everyone? And they're all whining about Twitter while simultaneously posting on Twitter. People are complaining that they can't link to the NY Post....while simultaneously linking to the NY Post. It's the Keystone Cop Echo Chamber!
Goodell's Alias
Footballguy
If she only got those states last year, that may explain the 2016 surprise of her losing!
Redwes25
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Of course Trump could beat Biden. Just like the Jets could beat KC.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For Trump to win by the margin in that Twitter post, he has to carry every battleground state. If people want to say the polls are totally unreliable, so be it. But here is the current polling data and how things would play out this election using the actual error from the 2016 election involving Hillary Clinton:
2020 polling data and 2016 actual error rate
PA: Biden +5.1 + (-4.4) = Biden +0.7
WI: Biden +8.5 + (-6.1) = Biden +2.4
MI: Biden +8.0 + (-4.6) = Biden +3.4
MN: Biden +9.3 + (-4.1) = Biden +5.2
NH: Biden +11.4 + (-2.4) = Biden +9.0
AZ: Biden +3.5 + (-1.4) = Biden +2.1
NV: Biden +6.1 + (+2.0) = Biden +8.1
GA: Biden +1.4 + (-1.1) = Biden +0.3
FL: Biden +1.4 + (-1.8) = Trump +0.4
NC: Biden +2.1 + (-4.4) = Trump +2.3
IA: Biden +1.5 + (-6.2) = Trump +4.7
So if 538 was off the same amount in each state as they were last time, Biden would earn 306 electoral votes this time. And if the polling results in 2020 are off by a greater magnitude this time, then it's time to do away with polls as their accuracy would be completely out the window.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Sure . . . polls have been SLIGHTLY inaccurate over the years. But they haven't been off by the amounts currently being reflected in a number of states.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
IIRC, there was only one state that Hillary was projected to win where that actual outcome was off by 5% (WI). I posted earlier that Biden is up by more than 5 points in 23 states, DC, and 2 other districts. Those add up to 278 electoral votes (and ignores AZ, NC, IA, FL, and GA). Trump would have to win one of the states where Biden is up by 5 points and essentially every remaining state to win. I'm not saying it can't happen, but IMO the chances that there are two states off by that much is pretty slim (assuming there are no shenanigans to discredit votes and take things to court). Of course, today isn't election day, so those poll numbers could also chance in the next few days. And I am not convinced that Biden won't win one of the other 5 states that he is leading in. I still predict that Biden will get the majority of the predicted 17 million additional voters in 2020 compared to 2016, so if the polls are off, IMO, they will be under representing votes for Biden. But, as the saying goes, that's why they play the game.
-fish-
Footballguy
McCullough claims he is basing his map on both Biden and Trump's internal polling, but the Biden campaign is actively sharing its polling as part of fundraising efforts and it is nothing like what he claims it is. But he is having a 3-part interview with Giuliani on his radio show, which he's advertising by posting a pro-Trump map.
Terminalxylem
Footballguy
Obviously the polls aren’t perfect, but what better tool exists to predict election outcomes - what do you base your confidence in a Trump win?
tri-man 47
Footballguy
I agree. The actual error percentages in 2016 were based on (a) a much larger share of undecided voters and (b) a predominantly unpopular Democratic candidate. This time, with a very small percentage of undecided voters and a majority showing a favorable view of Biden, the error rates on all the states showing Biden with a significant lead will be much less. Add on top of that an already heavier percentage of young and minority voters, both of whom favor Biden.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Riddle me this. Trumpsters can skip polls all they want. But if Biden backers are above 50% in a ton of states (something that Hillary did not do in most states), how will Trump be able to catch up? He could get every undecided vote and convert everyone currently supporting a third party candidate . . . and that won’t get him over 50%. How many Biden supporters do you think will flip in a handful of days? And why would they?
-fish-
Footballguy
2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
Russians Who Pose Election Threat Have Hacked Nuclear Plants and Power Grid
This is my biggest fear. They hack the election, Trump "wins", everyone once again says "polls, wth?" and Trump and his supporters say "told you so".
This is my biggest fear. They hack the election, Trump "wins", everyone once again says "polls, wth?" and Trump and his supporters say "told you so".
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AAABatteries
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
I live in a small town on the water and all summer there were a bunch of Trump signs in the yards of houses along the main street/tourist area. They've almost all been replaced with Biden signs now. It's been quite a noticeable change. I think they were trying to keep the tourists away.
Mr Anonymous
Footballguy
If Trump somehow wins at all, much less by some huge electoral margin, I think we can all agree that the current version of polling is complete garbage and would need a total overhaul.
Vicious attacks, like standing around polling places with weaponry displayed? Oh wait, those are Trump supporters.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Some of the same "very fine people" who thought an act of treason (kidnapping a governor) would be a very fine idea.
sho nuff
Footballguy
Why would we kist blanket agree with that?
It depends on where the polls miss and where outside the margin of error. Polls themselves were not all that inaccurate at all in 2016...most within the margin of error. No, the xx% chance to win stuff is not a poll...its analysis of polling and too many went just off national polling (which was actually pretty accurate when it comes to the popular vote...which is what national polling is about).
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Capella
Footballguy
Steeler
Footballguy
I understand we live in a totally polarized political environment but this is pretty lame. I can see why people don't like Trump. I'm asking why he thinks the republic is being eroded by one President - that's the part I was asking about - it seems hyperbolic. I could guess why someone thinks Trump is eroding the republic but I don't want to guess, so I asked.Lehigh98 said:
ETA: the answer can be high-level. Like his rhetoric, his policies, executive orders, whatever.
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Gr00vus
Footballguy
Can we start with lying about the prevalence of vote fraud, combined with a campaign to suppress mail in votes in the middle of a pandemic?
How do we feel about obstruction of justice during an investigation into whether he engaged in improprieties relating to efforts to get himself elected?
How about destaffing key positions throughout various Federal agencies?
What about hiring partisan supporters to head the justice department?
How do we feel about obstruction of justice during an investigation into whether he engaged in improprieties relating to efforts to get himself elected?
How about destaffing key positions throughout various Federal agencies?
What about hiring partisan supporters to head the justice department?
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Threatening to withhold federal aid to states that don’t vote for him or who have governors who don’t kiss up to him enough?
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