Gr00vus
Footballguy
O.k., then what about Missouri, where morning consult has Trump up 9? We don't question that one, but we do question Pennsylvania?
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2020 Presidential Election Polling Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter TripItUp
- Start date
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
These are pretty solid IMHO. Georgia would go blue with bend-over-backwards convenient-for-all voting, but they don't have that. Still see GA edging out for Trump.
Texas as well ... that would be a major surprise if TX went for Biden.
Juxtatarot
Footballguy
There has been more polling in PA. +9 seems a little high. Trump +9 in Indiana and Missouri seems to be closer to the averages. That said, it's not out of the realm of possibility that Biden takes PA by 9.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
I'm talking about the same polling outfit in each case. Why would we expect the same pollster to be off in one state, but not another?
Doug B
Footballguy
[notslaggingonJackstraw]
The "unlikelihood" of the 2016 election results get exaggerated in people's minds, I think. It had a 29% chance of happening per 538. A .290 hitter in baseball has a 29% chance of getting a base hit every at-bat -- no one expects the .290 guy to ground out to short each and every time up.
[/notslaggingonJackstraw]
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
The news is fake. Except when it's favorable.It's funny, and I suppose it sort of makes sense, for as much as people question the accuracy of polls in battleground states like Pennsylvania, nobody does for states like Indiana. Do we not believe morning consult when it has Biden up 9 in Pennsylvania, but we do believe morning consult when it has Trump up 11 in Indiana (by the way morning consult had Trump up 17 in Indiana back in August). Do shy Trump voters only exist in battle ground states?
Is there a plausible scenario where Trump wins this election? It's a non-zero chance. But I'm not seeing it.
- mortal lock states for Biden: CA 55, NY 29, IL 20, NJ 14, WA 12, MA 11, MD 10, CT 7, OR 7, HI 4, RI 4, DE 3, DC 3, VT 3, ME (dst 1) 1. TOTAL 183
- mortal lock states for Trump: TN 11, AL 9, KY 8, LA 8, OK 7, AR 6, MS 6, WV 5, ID 4, ND 3, WY 3, NE (district 1 & 3) 2. TOTAL 72
- likely for Biden: VA 13, CO 9, NM 5, NH 4, ME (state) 2 TOTAL 33
- likely for Trump: SD 3. TOTAL 3
That's a massive lead in the 32* states and 3 districts least likely to have outcomes different from the polls, these are all well outside the margin of error.
- leaning Biden: PA 20, MI 16, MN 10, WI 10, NV 6, TOTAL 62
- leaning Trump: IN 11, MO 10, SC 9, KS 6, UT 6, MT 3, AK 3, NE (state) 2. TOTAL 50
Some of the 12* leaning states above could swing the other direction, but if they don't, the election is over before we get to toss ups.
If one or more of those states do swing from Biden to Trump, he still has to have a clean sweep of virtually every single state below to pull off the upset.
7 true battleground states plus 2 single electoral vote districts:
- Toss up: TX 38, FL 29, OH 18, GA 16, NC 15, AZ 11, IA 6, ME (district 2) 1, NE (district 2) 1. TOTAL 135
example 1:
125 safe/likely plus 135 tossup plus NV and either MN or WI - 276. Just short, needs both MN & WI (plus 7 toss up states and both toss up districts.)
example 2:
125 safe/likely plus 135 tossup = 260. PA puts him over the top, MI leaves him at 276 - will also need 1 more from MN, WI or NV.
Possible. But seems super unlikely.
*in addition to 50 states and DC, there are 2 district single electors in ME and 3 district single electors in NE, so 56 voting entities (?) total
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Joe Summer
Footballguy
Their blanket theory is that Trump has roughly 10% of additional (hidden) support in every single state. So, per their theory, he's really up by 19 in Missouri.
And there is some meat to that theory. In 2016, for example, the polls showed Trump up in Missouri by 9.5, and he won by 18.5; they showed Trump up 10.7 in Indiana, and he won by 19.
But there are 2 big flaws in their theory. The first flaw is that Trump's hidden support tends to be proportional to how conservative a state is. For example, in blue states, the "shy" vote was relatively small, if nonexistent.
The second flaw is that the polling companies have already compensated for this. They are adjusting their polls so that white males and people without a college degree are overrepresented in them. So, 1-in-10 might hang up the phone, but the other 9 are weighted at a rate of 1.1 to compensate for it.
Therefore, if the electorate has similar demographics to 2016, then Biden still likely wins. (And if the electorate reverts to what it looked like in 2012 or 2004, then Biden wins in a landslide.)
tri-man 47
Footballguy
And what about Trump's hidden supporters who just ...stay hidden and don't vote. As with 2016 and Dems who just couldn't give a vote to Hillary, what about Reps who just can't give another vote to Trump? So much focus is on the enthusiastic Trump base. But what about the Rep base who are not enthusiastic?
BobbyLayne
Footballguy
Four key differences from 2016:
• Candidate: HRC having a beer with the regular folk? Gitouttahere with that crap. Joe will do. Boring; possibly senile, but likeable. Takes the train every day, drives a corvette. I don’t wanna marry him (or let my daughter near him) but he’s kinda normal. I really want normal, as do a lot of people. As a nation we are exhausted by Trumps theatrics.
• Third Party drain off: In an election where three key states were decided by <80K, we saw hundreds of thousands of votes in those same states wasted on non-viable candidates.
• Late October surprise: Comey’s announcement he was RE-opening the email investigation - while NOT disclosing the extent they already knew Russia was interfering with the election - had some effect. Not for lack of trying, no such event this year.
• Straight but curious: ya know, maybe we should try something new. We might like it. Well, gip. So much for that idea. Trump now has an established record, and it ain’t good.
2020 is not 2016.
• Candidate: HRC having a beer with the regular folk? Gitouttahere with that crap. Joe will do. Boring; possibly senile, but likeable. Takes the train every day, drives a corvette. I don’t wanna marry him (or let my daughter near him) but he’s kinda normal. I really want normal, as do a lot of people. As a nation we are exhausted by Trumps theatrics.
• Third Party drain off: In an election where three key states were decided by <80K, we saw hundreds of thousands of votes in those same states wasted on non-viable candidates.
• Late October surprise: Comey’s announcement he was RE-opening the email investigation - while NOT disclosing the extent they already knew Russia was interfering with the election - had some effect. Not for lack of trying, no such event this year.
• Straight but curious: ya know, maybe we should try something new. We might like it. Well, gip. So much for that idea. Trump now has an established record, and it ain’t good.
2020 is not 2016.
AAABatteries
Footballguy
A lot has been made about Georgia's voter suppression and I don't disagree there's some truth there. But most counties have had early voting for three weeks and it appears many took advantage of it. Even one vote is one too many getting turned away but on some level I'm willing to give a chance to prove they can get it right tomorrow.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
A+ poll. Interesting. Continues to show PA for Biden. AZ razor thin margin. Seems reasonable.
The Z Machine
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I've been on the record saying I expect a Biden win. But if Trump does hold AZ, he's Pennsylvania away from being a strong favorite. It's all about if the PA polling is right at that point.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
This is very true. If Trump wins AZ, easy to see the cross-correlations with places like FL....which leads it all back to PA....
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Yeah I think we're on the same page. I don't see a world where Trump could win PA but not win FL for instance. So by me saying he's PA away from being that strong favorite, I'd assume in that case he has FL and in all likelihood NC and GA. And really when it comes to the EV math, that's all it would take. So I guess I view PA as the tipping point state. I personally feel AZ is the next one just on the Trump side of that which may be different enough from PA they could break opposite directions.
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2Squirrels1Nut
Footballguy
I seethe odds on Biden wining at -185 now. I don't recall a higher number than that.
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
CentralPA
Footballguy
Probably not. Polling workers aren't supposed to start counting the mail in votes until the polls open tomorrow morning.
tuffnutt
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
There's a shot we won't know AZ. Remember in 2016 AZ wasn't officially called til the next day. I think in the 2018 Synema/McSally race that McSally led on election night but Synema caught up in the week that followed.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Yep, if it comes down to ballots counted after election day no matter the outcome it's going to be nasty.
Doug B
Footballguy
I wish I understood why this was controversial in any way. Ballots have been counted after Election Day forever and ever. It's set in stone and has always been legal and legitimate.
CentralPA
Footballguy
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Shula-holic
Footballguy
Well I do get it. When you think about the most corrupt political cities in the US, Philly is right up there. I don't live there, can't speak to it. Used to date a girl from PA and she joked about it all the time though. The fact that Philly is saying it could take days to count the ballots plays into the old story of when asked how many votes you have left the answer is going to be, well how many do we need?
When things are as tense as they are, if PA ends up tight and let's say Trump is narrowly ahead, but all of a sudden Philly comes up with the votes days later to flip the state and election to Biden, to me it's pretty obvious what the reaction will be. I'm not sure what the safeguards are there and I'm pretty politically observant. Take the average voter who isn't that, he or she definitely has no clue. You could flip the scenario, say Biden leads by 10,000 votes and there's one PA county left in the rural areas unreported. Remember in 2016 when that one county initially said we aren't reporting til tomorrow? What if Biden led and all of a sudden some rural county finds mail in ballots for Trump. I don't think either side is going to be ready to accept that, and by either side I don't mean posters here.
I understand we are in a pandemic and I understand the need to vote by mail. But we are setting ourselves up to potentially be on top of a powder keg regardless if this thing is close, and don't even think about states whose outcome changes after election night due to late ballots.
Edited to add this, I get what your point is they've always counted. But as a percentage of the total vote, mail in ballots are magnitudes more of the proportion of votes than they have been and therefore much more likely to change the results as we knew them on election night. Add in the issues with the USPS, the hostility in this election, and how one state could flip this election, it all sets up to if things all broke the wrong way a very bad outcome.
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CentralPA
Footballguy
Doug B
Footballguy
Yes, but hissy fits don't have the force of law. He's the President, not the Sultan.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
I'm under the impression the number of vote by mail ballots in PA is significantly higher than it ever has been. If I'm wrong in that assumption then strike that. But by default, more quantity of vote by mail leads to more quantity of ballots in the mail straggling in after election day that may have valid postmarks. Therefore the potential exists more than ever before for that quantity to cause someone to win other than who was ahead on election night.
I can try to find it later but I think Caustic posted somewhere that somewhere north of 600,000 ballots had been requested as vote by mail in PA that had yet to arrive. That's hugely significant at this late date.
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Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
I still don't get this. Whether you count them election night or the days following, you still have stringent standards in place that make cheating near impossible. Has this ever happened?
It seems like this is more of an excuse to discount votes. Because we are aware of the party that tends to vote early, it makes sense that one party would not want them to count. Not because of some possible shenanigans, but because counting those votes might cost them the election.
Shula-holic
Footballguy
Let me clarify, I'm not saying they shouldn't count if they have the valid postmarks, signatures, etc. But I'm saying that the average voter isn't going to get that. I don't know what the safeguards are and I follow this stuff. I'm sure I could research it and would be willing to do so. In this heated environment the average voter isn't going to believe that if their guy loses because of ballots coming in after election day that it was fair. They are more likely to believe there was a plan to steal the election. That's just what I believe from the temperature out there and I hope it doesn't happen.
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Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
One thing I do agree with Trump about is that Florida's system of pre-counting and releasing results on election night is way better than PA's.
Osaurus
Footballguy
I was under the impression there was opposition to early counting in many states by his own party.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
mrip541
Footballguy
I believe Nate Silver noted that Quinnipiac has had a number of "borderline outliers" in Biden's favor.
Drunken Cowboy
Footballguy
Here is a good source for the data
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
Also worth noting, the return rate is way higher for democrats.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
Mystery Achiever
Footballguy
To quote Jake from State Farm and Joe Biden: Here's the deal.
- PA didn't have no excuse absentee balloting til this year, so the number is, by definition. much higher
- 683k ballots distributed are outstanding. I don't know if someone surrenders theirs in order to vote in person if it gets recorded as received. I also don't know if someone requested a 2nd ballot because they never received the 1st if that counts as one or two.
- Ballots cannot even be processed. let alone counted, before Election Day. Strictly because the GOP blocked it. That forces a delay even without the stragglers that may or may not come in.
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Doug B
Footballguy
Here is a representative counting process in San Mateo County, California to establish a baseline for mail-in counting. Might differ from state to state, but locally the safeguards are:
1) Representatives of the various political parties observe the ballot-counting: Typically, this will be both Democratic and Republican observers where counting takes place. Observers are allowed to view damaged ballots, challenged-signature ballots (see link), etc.
2) Due recounts and audits. If the outcome of an election in a given state (and I think even down to the level of an individual precinct) is initially counted within a certain percentage range (1%?) between the winning candidates and other candidates, recounts are automatic. Requests to audit ballots (Step 10 in the link) are also routinely approved for a few weeks after a close election (within a certain threshhold).
EDIT: This graphic from California's Secretary of State's office gives more details about how recounts, audits, and challenges take place in that state. Louisiana is similar.
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caustic
Footballguy
They’ve definitely produced some of Biden’s best numbers this cycle but don’t have much of a history of left-wing bias. They’re a quality, live-caller pollster.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
We are back to the common theme from the past few days. A late surge in conservative poll reporting is giving the perception that the race is tightening. 538 incorporates these polling results but hasn't dramatically changed how they view and weigh the polls . . .
538 / RCP
FL +2.4 / +1.0
PA +4.8 / +2.9
WI +8.2 / +6.6
NC +1.9 / -0.6
MI +8.0 / +5.1
OH -0.4 / -1.2
MN +9.3 / +4.3
IA -1.4 / -1.4
AZ +2.6 / +0.9
NV +4.9 / +3.6
TX _1.3 / -1.2
GA +1.3 / -0.2
It remains to be seen which set of numbers better reflects how things are at the moment, but 538 has not really moved much in the last few days while RCP has changed on the fly way more in that time.
538 / RCP
FL +2.4 / +1.0
PA +4.8 / +2.9
WI +8.2 / +6.6
NC +1.9 / -0.6
MI +8.0 / +5.1
OH -0.4 / -1.2
MN +9.3 / +4.3
IA -1.4 / -1.4
AZ +2.6 / +0.9
NV +4.9 / +3.6
TX _1.3 / -1.2
GA +1.3 / -0.2
It remains to be seen which set of numbers better reflects how things are at the moment, but 538 has not really moved much in the last few days while RCP has changed on the fly way more in that time.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
So the GOP blocked them from counting early, and now they're going to try and get them discounted because they aren't counted in time?
Anarchy99
Footballguy
On top of that, some counties in PA have indicated they don't have the manpower to man the polls and tabulate the in-person votes that they have already said they won't be able to touch ANY mail-in ballots until Wednesday.
tri-man 47
Footballguy
That's an incredibly low number for a sitting President, especially for one who had a strong economy (had) and no new military involvements. This is an election thread, so I'll say no more.
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