Player Spotlight: Clinton Portis (1 Viewer)

2004 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Ultimately, each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Clinton Portis, RB, Washington Redskins

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Detailed viewpoints from two Footballguys Staff Members

Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

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Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
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For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
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For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

I struggled with what to do with Mark Brunell. Well, I really struggled with what to do with Clinton Portis. He's a third year back who just switched teams playing for a Hall of Fame coach who's watched more NASCAR than football for the past dozen years. Unquestionable is the fact that Portis put together two of the best freshman/sophmore seasons in the history of the NFL. Unquestionable is the fact that Danny Snyder is paying Portis to continue doing exactly that in Washington. After that ... all we have is questions.

Here's my best guess (and its sure to change by September):

310 Rushes for 1630 Yards (5.25 ypc)/12 RuTDs/55 Rec for 440 Yards (8 ypc)/2 ReTDs

Those numbers make him #3 on my RB Board (using FBG scoring)

I believe that there are three things working against Clinton Portis.One he is no longer in Denver. As a result, his average yardage is going to be under 5.0; I'll project around 4.75. It is a lot easier to average 5.5 yards/ carry when folks are not hitting you during the first 3 yards!The second thing is that he will not play 16 games; he will loose at least two games being "knicked up".The third is that Joe Gibbs is going to use a RBBC to try and minimize the potential damage to Portis and to utilize all of his RB weapons.That's the bad news. The good news is that Brunell will find him out in the flat and use the space cleared by Coles and Co. I believe that his receptions will double to 4 per game.Projections:280 rushes [20 carries per game for 14 games]1330 rushing yards12 rushing td's56 receptions [4 receptions per game for 14 games]560 receiving yards2 receiving td's

I dont like projexcting Portis. I have never been a fan, nor have I thought he was anything special running behind the Den line. I think Portis has a number of things going against him (as I touched on in the other Portis thread). That said, I think he will get his, I worry about his TD numbers though.

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I dont like projexcting Portis. I have never been a fan, nor have I thought he was anything special running behind the Den line. I think Portis has a number of things going against him (as I touched on in the other Portis thread). That said, I think he will get his, I worry about his TD numbers though.

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you're worrying about 15 TDs??

That said, I think he will get his, I worry about his TD numbers though.

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are you saying that you scaled him back to 16 TDs?

1550 yds/ 13 rush TDs275 rec/ 1 TDHe's the obvious back in Washington, the scrubs will get a few crumbs, no RBBC by any measure.

That said, I think he will get his, I worry about his TD numbers though.

1300/15 300/1

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are you saying that you scaled him back to 16 TDs?

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Portis went for 307 1659 14 39 324 0 in 2003. I think Portis could have had a number more TDs in 2003 if we stayed healthy. I think Portis could put up better numbers in Den this season than being in Was. Therefore, I scaled his TDs back.I scored Portis rushing TDs this season thinking 1 3-TD game, 3 2-TD games, and 8 TDs in 10 games, DNP 2 games. The receiving TD was just that, a throw in.

JAA

PS I am not looking to predict Portis' scoring per se, more like trying to get within 20% of his actual 2004 fantasy production. I can do that because I am not in any TD only leagues and 90% of the scoring systems in my 8 leagues are the same.

Clinton Portis is a stud.....period. If Gibbs is smart, the offense will focus on getting Portis 350+ touches. Only question marks will be.....how will Gibbs utilize Portis on third downs? Will he be called to catch more passes in WAS than DEN? Was Portis' great numbers a function of the great offensive line that DEN has?Questions are minor in my book.325/1525/14 rushing, 45/375/2 receiving.Still a top 5 back.

This is insane, trying to figure this out in May. But....what the heck, here are my projections(subject to change with the wind): 311 carries/1477 yards(4.75ypc)/12 TD's 50 receptions/560 yards(11.2ypc)/6 TD's I would have to agree with Dancing Bear's synopsis, the passing game will allow Portis to get open in the flat more..... and I'm sure we all know what he can do, in open space. His carries from the line of scrimmage will not be as productive as Portis is used to. He will notice the tougher Defenses from the start. My only concern is that Cartwright or Betts will be used for goal line and third down work, which would affect Portis' Touchdown totals.

Some of the factors I've seen in threads about Portis since the trade seem to be somewhat farfetched to me:1. Gibbs will use RBBC - seems very doubtful to me. Canidate looked extremely one-dimensional last year, and I can't see him in the third down back role. Could see him cut sometime during training camp. Betts could be an adequate back-up, but he's not nearly as explosive as Portis, and doesn't seem to run inside any better. Rock Cartwright? C'Mon..2. Portis will get banged up and miss games - I'm going to tell everyone to go back and read Doug Drinen's "Conventional Wisdom" article, which I will qoute from here:"In light of what we've seen above, I think the more appropriate tactic is to leave him where he is unless there are special circumstances causing you to believe he won't stay healthy. If, after carefully examining the situation, you feel that the injury history is relevant in this particular case -- maybe, for example, a player has been plagued with a certain kind of injury that you believe is more likely to act up -- then it might still make sense to bump the guy down. But "because he has a history of injuries" is not sufficient. "Hope it's OK to quote you Doug. In this case, I don't see that Portis should be ranked down due to injuries from last year - if Fred Taylor can start 16 games, ANYBODY can.OK, so if these two reasons for downgrading Portis aren't persuasive, why should we think Portis will do well? 1. System. Gibbs teams have usually had strong running attacks. In 12 seasons, the Skins were top-10 in rushing yards 7 times, and below-average only twice. They were also top-10 in rushing TDs 8 times, including 5 straight years of top-5 performance in the mid-80's. 2. Line. The Skins line has been underachieving for the last two years, which is probably more of a reflection of the Spurrier dysfunctional era than of the talent involved. They have three potential Pro-Bowl guys (Thomas, Samuels, and Jensen), got Cory Raymer back, and have some young depth (Dockery, Brandon Winey). They also get Joe Bugel back, which is something of a change from the last two years. Line should be vastly improved, but it remains to be seen if they remember how to run block, considering how little was done the last two years. Still, they should appreciate being able to play attacking football once again.Therefore, I'm going to project Portis at 16 games:320 attempts1600 yards (5.0 per carry)14 TDs48 Receptions420 yards2 TDsA top-5 back.

Clinton Portis is playing for a coach that will demand his team to be successful at running the football. There is too much talk about Portis leaving Denver and that's why he was successful. However, what people aren't focused on is that he's going to a team/coach where they will give him the ball. Clinton Portis will have a very good year under Coach Gibbs.1550 yds, 13 td's350 receiving, 2 td's

Hope it's OK to quote you Doug. In this case, I don't see that Portis should be ranked down due to injuries from last year - if Fred Taylor can start 16 games, ANYBODY can.

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:rotflmao: Sheer genius. I didn't see Doug post this. Thanks for sharing.I for one was sold on Portis as a Bronco but not on Portis as a Skin. Portis' success was partly to do with the system. His new system has a new HC, a new (old) QB, and an O-Line and blocking schemes that Portis is not used to.

1200 yards, 12 TD's. 270 yards receiving and 1 TD.

That puts him around the top 10 but just barely. I think in 2005 we will see his numbers rebound back toward what we have come to expect from Portis but I think this year he will struggle a bit. Now, I say that he will rebound in 2005 as long as Danny Boy doesn't get get all twitchy again and decide he wants someone else to coach because he doesn't like the toy he has and wants a new toy or he's going to cry....

The only question (in my mind) is whether Portis can stay healthy. If he plays 15-16 games, regardless of system, blocking schemes, etc. the guy is a top 3 RB. Gibbs should understand this better than anyone. I am sure Portis will get his 20-25 touches per game so I am guessing:14 games290 carries1450 yards5.0 YPC14 TD32 recps300 yards2 TDs

All of the questions I see about Portis are IMO very weak. 1. Portis is injury prone. Untill last year, this was never a question. He went threw his rookie year with out injury and the ones he had last year were not the kind that will repeat themsleves. Lets break down Portis' injurys form last year. Hurts ribs vs. SD and leaves game early. A game in which he still managed 129 yds on only 12 carries. Dispite what most would lead you to believe, he came back the following week and tried and wanted to play threw it. However, the coaches and staff felt it was better to get him out. So he then gets 10 carries for 42 yards vs. Oak. The next week, again the coaches decide it is better to rest Portis vs. the lowly Det Lions and take their chances at winning anyways, as they have a very big game coming up the week after that vs. undefeated KC. Portis rests vs. Det, Den wins any ways and well he lights up KC the following week for over 200 tot yards and a td. Then towards the end of the season, he hurts his ankle vs. Clev. (an injury that would put anyone out at least a week) Sits out the next week vs. Indy (which he should have medically) and misses the last game of the year as everything was locked up as far as their playoff schedule goes. So what I gather form this, is that first of all, none of these injuries are repetative in nature and 2nd Portis will play through the pain much more than what is lead on to believe. He just won't do it when it puts his team in jeopordy (or if someone else can do the job better given his state).2. The Den Oline will be missed. Yes of course the Den Oline will be missed. How much, Not a great deal if you ask me. Just a few years ago, Wash was regarded as having one of the best young Olines in football. 2 stud tackles and at least 1 beast up the middle with addition of Thomas. 3 out of 5 guys who are in the top of their postition isn't all that bad if yo ask me. Spurrier gets a hole of this group and causes serious regression. Terrible blocking schemes and just an overall lack of focus in the Oline play all together. This unit will be much, much better this year with Gibbs incontrol. Now will they be better than Den, not likely. However the drop off is not nearly as bad as people are leading it to be.3. Portis will be in a RBBC in Wash. This has got to be one of the funniest things I have heard. Just because Gibbs has used it before does not mean he will with Portis. Just last year, people were asking the question who is the more tallented RB, Portis or LT? Both of which are the 2 most tallented guys in the NFL IMO. All of a sudden Portis leaves Den to go to Wash and now what was one of the most tallented RBs in the NFL is to sit in a RBBC? Now if this same thing had happened to LT would the same people be calling RBBC, or is it just that they have something else on their mind about Portis? Bottom line is that Portis is a better RB then every other guy on Wash roster. He does every thing that a RB is asked to do better as well. He was brought in and given a huge contract to be the focal point of this O. So why then will this be a RBBC? Now granted, Portis will not be a 25+ carry back a great deal, nor would he really prefer to be. However, he will be used more in the passing game and should get just as many if not more carries in Wash than he did in Den. I will agree that his gaudy YPC should go dwon though in a much tougher division. 300 carries, 1560yds, 14 tds45 rec, 450 yds, 3 tds

I don't have much to add in commentary, just a gut feeling on the stats:1991 Redskins under Gibbs: 348 1346 3.87 11Portis last season: 290 1591 5.5 14 Portis this season:290 carries, 1450 yards, 11 TDs34 catches, 330 yards, 3 TDs

Thanks to NFL.com, here is Washington's schedule 2004 Schedule Date Opponent Result Sept. 12 Tampa Bay 1:00 p.m. Sept. 19 at New York Giants 1:00 p.m. Sept. 27 Dallas 9:00 p.m. Oct. 3 at Cleveland 1:00 p.m. Oct. 10 Baltimore 8:30 p.m. Oct. 17 at Chicago 1:00 p.m. Oct. 24 Open Date Oct. 31 Green Bay 1:00 p.m. Nov. 7 at Detroit 1:00 p.m. Nov. 14 Cincinnati 4:05 p.m. Nov. 21 at Philadelphia 4:15 p.m. Nov. 28 at Pittsburgh 1:00 p.m. Dec. 5 New York Giants 4:15 p.m. Dec. 12 Philadelphia 8:30 p.m. Dec. 18 at San Francisco 5:00 p.m. Dec. 26 at Dallas 4:15 p.m. Jan. 2 Minnesota 1:00 p.m. He has some nice matchups, especially at the end of the season with Philadelphia, San Fran and Minneota to end the season. I say he goes for 1500 yards with 17 touchdowns. 350 yards receiving with another score. He's the number 2 pick on my board

Here's Portis's 2003 season from the Game Recaps.Week 1. Clinton Portis was the star of the Denver offense, tallying two TDs and over 100 yards. Portis briefly left the game in the 4th quarter, due to a minor injury, but returned on the next series. Portis played well after the outcome was decided, which certainly does not hurt his productivity.Week 2. Clinton Portis gained 100 yards rushing in the first quarter alone, and set up the Broncos for short TD passes on all three first-half scores. On Denver's second drive, he took the team down to the Chargers' 1 before Plummer found Sharpe in the end zone on third down. Portis had 129 yards overall on just 12 carries, including a 58-yard burst early in the first quarter. He left the game in the first half after suffering a blow to the chest.Week 3. Clinton Portis (10-42 yards rushing, 1-0 receiving; 2 targets) burst out of the gates with 32 yards on his first four carries. He only gained 11 on his next 8 attempts, but that opening drive explosion laid the foundation for the play action fakes that would torment the Raiders early. However, Portis re-aggravated his bruised sternum early in the second quarter, and sat on the sideline for the rest of the second and all of the third quarter. He did return to the game with 9 minutes left in the fourth quarter, and played one series after RB Mike Anderson went down with an injury of his own. After last week's issue with coach Mike Shanahan "fibbing" about Plummer's shoulder injury during the game, it was interesting to note that the official word was that Portis was being held out of the game on a "coach's decision".Week 4. Clinton Portis was inactive for the game with a bruised chest.Week 5. A seemingly completely healthy Portis finished with 220 total yards (137 of which came on two plays) including the 65-yard scoring jaunt off the right side early in the second half. Still, with Denver leading 20-17 early in the fourth quarter and facing a first-and-goal from KC's 4-yard line, Portis carried three straight times for just two yards and Denver settled for another Elam field goal and a 23-17 advantage. Portis' 72-yard reception on a reverse pass from Rod Smith came during Denver's second possession and likely would have gone for an 80-yard touchdown had the ball not been just a little under thrown. As it was, a wide-open Portis had to stop and come back to catch the ball. Portis had a 12-yard run nullified by a holding penalty in the first half. He also had 2 fumbles that amazingly and luckily bounced back to him.Week 6. The normally spectacular Portis was anything but against a fierce Pittsburgh defense. He finished with just 47 yards rushing, his lowest full-game output since Week 10 of last season. Perhaps more alarming than his rushing total was the fact that he committed his third fumble in the last two games. Unlike his two fumbles last week against Kansas City (both recovered by Denver), the opposition pounced on this one at its own 25-yard line. It was Portis' first lost fumble in 141 touches. Portis added five receptions for 26 yards.Week 7. Clinton Portis (25-117-1 TD rushing, 3-43 receiving, 4 targets) had a strong game, but was under-utilized late in the contest due to Denver being down by as many as 18 points in the second half. Portis accounted for 112 all-purpose yards in the first half, a significant portion of the Denver productivity (Denver had 132 net yards at halftime).Week 8. Clinton Portis finished with respectable-looking numbers (22-86 rushing, 6-29 receiving), but take away runs of 15 and 17 yards and his rushing numbers don't look nearly as impressive (20-54). He was integral during Denver's first-half field-goal drive, carrying six straight times for 29 yards on a drive that stalled at Baltimore's 9-yard line. Despite such effectiveness early, Portis carried just once in a Ravens-dominated second quarter for minus-2 yards. On the day, Portis was tackled behind the line of scrimmage four times resulting in minus-10 yards. Week 9. The Broncos got on the scoreboard first thanks to a 15-yard TD run by RB Clinton Portis early in the first quarter. Portis ran for 111 yards on 26 carries.Week 10. Bye.Week 11. Clinton Portis (25-106 rushing, 2-6 receiving, 2 targets) ran well, in particular on one play that he broke to the outside. He had gotten past the initial defenders on a third and short play and was streaking down the left sideline when he put on the brakes, causing two defenders to overrun him and if he had not slipped when trying to start up again he may have gone all the way for a touchdown. He was taken out of the game late in the third quarter or he would have had an even better stat line.Week 12. Clinton Portis (14 carries, 165 yards, 3 catches, 23 yards) ran at will on the Bears. The end zone eluded him again, however, and he now has scored just twice in the last six games. Portis left the game limping in the fourth quarter with what's being reported as a heel injury, although the injury is not believed to be severe.Week 13. Clinton Portis (34 carries for 170 yards, 1 catch for 7 yards on 3 targets) was absolutely monstrous, earning over 60 percent of Denver's total yards for the game. The team fed Portis continuously in the game, and he already had 20 carries (for 72 yards) in the first half. He danced a little early, making only marginal headway, but later showed both the patience and power that you expect from him. A 3rd quarter run with a spin through the Raider defense and power burst for 30 total yards was a perfect example of the things Portis can do on the field. On the nail-meets-coffin drive in the middle of the fourth quarter, Portis ran the ball 8 times for 62 yards (Plummer and Quentin Griffin gained the other 6 in the drive) and scored on a one yard pop to the endzone. Week 14. Clinton Portis (22-218/5TD rushing, 2-36 rec) what more can be said. He came to play. His two longest runs were the product of great blocking combined with Portis putting moves on the Chiefs safeties that will bring applause during film sessions on Tuesday (in Denver that is). Quentin Griffin did come in late to spell Portis, but will likely move back to the 3rd back once Mike Anderson finishes his suspension next week. Rueben Droughns did score on a great play fake by Plummer and a short 3 yard TD pass.Week 15. Clinton Portis was having a modest afternoon heading into the fourth quarter with 26 carries for 86 yards and a TD. Then he reeled off 53 yards on the next 12 carries, including a 13-yard TD run. His 38 carries are a career high, and the final run in overtime right before Jason Elam's game-winning field goal, resulted in Portis being helped off the field with a right knee and ankle sprain. Initial x-rays following the game were negative, but he'll undergo an MRI on Monday. If he's out for any length of time, Mike Shanahan will be criticized for moving the ball a few insignificant yards closer for the field goal. Portis has rushed for 1,591 yards this year, breaking his rookie total. He has 14 touchdowns on the season - one short of his rookie total - and has 10 100-yard rushing performances.Week 16. Was inactive.Week 17. Was inactive.Playoffs vs. Colts: Clinton Portis (17/68, 1/10 receiving, fumble, 5 targets) Lost a number of first half opportunities where Griffin came into the game for plays. Portis lined up in the slot over 10 times on the game, each time, he was put in motion returning to the backfield, and then got the ball. Portis was very successful rushing to the right, testing the left side of the Colt's defense. Portis lost gains of 2, 4 and 9 yards on offensive holding calls.

Put me on the side that thinks his numbers will suffer in Washington. Portis is a talented back, but he will miss the Denver Oline(and Shanahan)14 games played275 carries1238 yards9 TD's33 catches320 yards1 TD

I think the only thing Portis will miss, is playing against Kansas City twice a year. I see a decrease in numbers for him this year, but nothing to get too worried about.290 carries, 1400 yards, 10 TD's40 receptions, 400 yards, 1 TD's.1800/11

1. the number one comment is how good portis was because he ran behind the denver o-line, well since denvers offensive line was ranked 15th overall, i can hardly wait to see him run behind samuels ans jansen!!2. 2190 yrds 19 td's, 5.1 yrds/carry, 320 yrds recieving , 2 td's3. he will play all 16 games this year, to be fair he only missed 1 game due to a bruised sternem, the othe games he wanted to play, but shanahan wanted him to rest, and what the hell was shanahan thinking by trying to keep running portis last year within the 20 yrd line, when he has elam sitting on the bench waiting to kick the winner, i think shanahan should take thge hit for that one, and portis shouldn't be labelled "injury prone". clevland knew what was going on and all defense had eyes for portis.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

2. 2190 yrds 19 td's, 5.1 yrds/carry, 320 yrds recieving , 2 td's

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so, you think Portis will get 430 carries.

2. 2190 yrds 19 td's, 5.1 yrds/carry, 320 yrds recieving , 2 td's

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so, you think Portis will get 430 carries.

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Why not? If he's going to break the rushing record by 85 yards, he might as well break the attempts record too.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

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No, Anderson and Gary were effective in the system but they weren't consistently dominant the way Portis has been, very different levels of talent here.

I disagree with Jason Wood's last statement.Portis does have speed and talent, but ...Since 1996 the Denver Broncos O-Line has dominated the league and produced 7 top 6 finishes out of 8. The only year they did not produce a dominant back was in 2001 when Shanahan could not decide what to do with Terrell Davis and company.Davis finished 2nd among RB's in 1996 in ppg.Davis finished 2nd among RB's in 1997 in ppg.Davis finished 1st among RB's in 1998 in ppg.Gary finished 6th among RB's in 1999 in ppg.Anderson finished 2nd among RB's in 2000 in ppg.No clear starting RB in 2001 ...Portis finished 4th among RB's in 2002 in ppg.Portis finished 1st among RB's in 2003 in ppg.Very few RB's can produce year in year out without a good O-Line. Barry Sanders is the only one in the past 20 years to do it. I would like to see a couple of analyses done by the "stat kings" at footballguys.com.a) distribution of yardage by carry for each game. Sanders typically had nearly 1/3 [33%] of his carries result in losses because of the horrible Detroit O-Line. I bet that Denver's backs have averaged less than 10% since 1996!b) yardage run before first contact. Emmitt Smith was a great back to be sure, but the Dallas O-Line used to open up huge holes for him, and Emmitt was rarely hit before he ran 3 yards down field!Joe Gibbs has a great track record, and Joe Bugel certainly put together some outstanding lines ... but were able to do this prior to free agency and they were able to "groom" their team for years. You cannot make a tomato a banana no matter how hard you try. The Washington O-Line is not even close to the Denver O-Line.Portis will average less than 5.0 ypc, and he will not play 16 games.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

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No, Anderson and Gary were effective in the system but they weren't consistently dominant the way Portis has been, very different levels of talent here.

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I agree with Wood. I would also point out that Portis was a fair amount more dominant than TD in his first two years as well.On the old board I created a thread that examined Portis's rookie season and attempted to rate it in a historical context. The general conclusion, aided by some research by Doug Drinen IIRC, was that Portis's rookie season was one of the top 5 or so of all time.That fits right in with Maurile's point, I believe. And I agree with the earlier poster that I see nothing in Portis's short career that would cause me to label him injury prone.I'm not prepared to make an accurate prediction right now, but off the top of my head, I'd say 1900+ total yards and 12+ total TDs is a conservative estimate. He bettered that last season, despite playing only the equivalent of 11.5 games, as noted by Maurile, so there is obviously upside potential in those numbers. He's as close to a lock to be a top 5 back as anyone.

You guys have a good amount of respect for the Denver line, and rightly so, but you're discounting the 'Skins o-line in the process. I also think you're ignoring another critical component - the passing game. The Redskins have a massive o-line, with big, athletic guards and tackles. These guys will mash in the running game. Samuels is indicative of how this line has slid in the last couple of years. He was a Pro Bowler in 2001, which was his best season, and on his way to being one of the top LT's in the game. Then along comes Spurrier with his asinine blocking schemes and pass-first-no-matter-what mentality and everybody on that line regressed, with the possible exception of Randy Thomas (who of course was only victimized by Spurrier's "genius" for one year). No more. They're going to run first and they're going to have help from some big-bodied H-backs in run blocking and passing situations because Gibbs is passionate about two fundamental things: establishing the run, and protecting the QB. The second thing you're ignoring is that Portis has never played with a particularly strong passing game, and he still put up outstanding numbers. Brian Griese and Jake Plummer? Gibbs favorite tactic in the passing game is to take deep shots down the field using play-action fakes, which puts the LB's and safeties in a terrible dilemma when they're given a run look. Do they cheat up and risk getting beaten deep by a guy like Coles, or do they play back, give up the easy 5-7 yard gain, and run the risk with Portis of having to tackle him alone in the open field if he manages to break a DL's or LB's tackle. The 'Skins WR corps is at least arguably better and certainly deeper than Denver's of the last two years (I happen to think that Coles is better than Smith at this stage of Smith's career). Portis should have plenty of running lanes to exploit. All right, off of the soapbox. 1450/13300/3He's a top five back.

1500 rush17 TD400 rec1 tdI undervalued him a bit too much due to injury last year. This year, even with the team change, he's in my top 3-4 for sure.EDIT: TD's were too low.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

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No, Anderson and Gary were effective in the system but they weren't consistently dominant the way Portis has been, very different levels of talent here.

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1997 Terrell Davis, 15 games played, 1750 rushing yards, 15 TD's1998 Terrell Davis, 16 games played, 2003 rushing yards, 21 TD's

1999 Orlandis Gary, 12 games played, 1159 rushing yards, 7 TD's

2000 Mike Anderson, 16 games played(12 games started) 1487 rushing yards, 15 TD's

2001 RBBC

2002 Clinton Portis, 16 games played(12 games started) 1508 yards rushing, 15 TD's

2003 Clinton Portis, 13 games played, 1591 yards rushing, 14 TD's

Ok, so Gary's numbers were short of the rest, but has anyone seen Gary play since he left Denver? the guy shouldnt even be in the NFL, and yet he still averaged almost 100 yards rushing a game in 1999 for Denver.

And Wood, you are right, Anderson was no where near as dominant as Portis(note bolded areas) Obvious sarcasm

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

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No, Anderson and Gary were effective in the system but they weren't consistently dominant the way Portis has been, very different levels of talent here.

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1997 Terrell Davis, 15 games played, 1750 rushing yards, 15 TD's1998 Terrell Davis, 16 games played, 2003 rushing yards, 21 TD's

1999 Orlandis Gary, 12 games played, 1159 rushing yards, 7 TD's

2000 Mike Anderson, 16 games played(12 games started) 1487 rushing yards, 15 TD's

2001 RBBC

2002 Clinton Portis, 16 games played(12 games started) 1508 yards rushing, 15 TD's

2003 Clinton Portis, 13 games played, 1591 yards rushing, 14 TD's

Ok, so Gary's numbers were short of the rest, but has anyone seen Gary play since he left Denver? the guy shouldnt even be in the NFL, and yet he still averaged almost 100 yards rushing a game in 1999 for Denver.

And Wood, you are right, Anderson was no where near as dominant as Portis(note bolded areas) Obvious sarcasm

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Anderson's rookie year was indeed impressive, and I have to give him credit for amassing 5.1 yards per carry that year. That said, whether it was circumstance or not, he wasn't able to duplicate that level of success ever again. Perhaps it was nothing more than Shanny's obsession with TD's recovery followed by the arrival of Portis, but the fact remains that while Anderson's one season was comparable to Portis, Clinton has done it two years counting.And while it's VERY difficult to compare Anderson's production in 2002-2003 to Portis' because Anderson arguably couldn't work himself into a rhythm as a part time player, it still is worth noting that behind the exact same offensive lines, Anderson has averaged 4.2 yards per carry to Portis' 5.5; that's a meaningful difference.

Furthermore, although Shanny has never utilized his RBs as major receiving threats, Portis has shown himself to be a better receiver in his short career.

2. 2190 yrds  19 td's, 5.1 yrds/carry,  320 yrds recieving , 2 td's

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so, you think Portis will get 430 carries.

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Why not? If he's going to break the rushing record by 85 yards, he might as well break the attempts record too.

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I'm glad you guys already ragged this so I won't have to.....How about the bold 21 TD prediction?This was obviously posted by someone who hopes to be the future Mrs. Portis

If you ignore the name and just look at the situation, you have:One of the top-3 best RBs in football the past two seasons that a team determined be a winner went and signed to a high money contract, after getting a former SB coach. Then look at the surrounding cast. Two solid WRs, one who could be spectacular. And improving QB. A very strong OL. No real competition from the other RBs on the team.You look at it that way and you'd say they are going to ride this guy as far as he'll take them, and I'd say you are right.Insert Clinton Portis, and a reasonable projection is:322Rush, 1804RushYds, 14RushTDs, 48Rec, 453RecYds, 2RecTDs

There's no comparison between Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary, on the one hand, and Portis on the other. Anderson and Gary ran with toughness and effort and balance and did a pretty good job of getting up through the hole, but you could say all that about 80% of the RBs in the NFL. Portis is special. His quickness, his burst, his moves, the way he changes direction and makes people miss, his overall Barry Sandersishness as a runner -- all are unmatched in the league today except maybe by Tomlinson.

Portis's PPG numbers are really amazing when you consider that he missed about half of the week 2 game, about half of the week 3 game, over a quarter of the week 11 game, and about a quarter of the week 12 game. If you divide his total points by 11.5 games instead of 13 games, Portis was the #1 fantasy RB in PPG last year.

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Couldnt you pretty much say that about any of Denvers back over the last 10 years?

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No, Anderson and Gary were effective in the system but they weren't consistently dominant the way Portis has been, very different levels of talent here.

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1997 Terrell Davis, 15 games played, 1750 rushing yards, 15 TD's1998 Terrell Davis, 16 games played, 2003 rushing yards, 21 TD's

1999 Orlandis Gary, 12 games played, 1159 rushing yards, 7 TD's

2000 Mike Anderson, 16 games played(12 games started) 1487 rushing yards, 15 TD's

2001 RBBC

2002 Clinton Portis, 16 games played(12 games started) 1508 yards rushing, 15 TD's

2003 Clinton Portis, 13 games played, 1591 yards rushing, 14 TD's

Ok, so Gary's numbers were short of the rest, but has anyone seen Gary play since he left Denver? the guy shouldnt even be in the NFL, and yet he still averaged almost 100 yards rushing a game in 1999 for Denver.

And Wood, you are right, Anderson was no where near as dominant as Portis(note bolded areas) Obvious sarcasm

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Anderson's rookie year was indeed impressive, and I have to give him credit for amassing 5.1 yards per carry that year. That said, whether it was circumstance or not, he wasn't able to duplicate that level of success ever again. Perhaps it was nothing more than Shanny's obsession with TD's recovery followed by the arrival of Portis, but the fact remains that while Anderson's one season was comparable to Portis, Clinton has done it two years counting.And while it's VERY difficult to compare Anderson's production in 2002-2003 to Portis' because Anderson arguably couldn't work himself into a rhythm as a part time player, it still is worth noting that behind the exact same offensive lines, Anderson has averaged 4.2 yards per carry to Portis' 5.5; that's a meaningful difference.

Furthermore, although Shanny has never utilized his RBs as major receiving threats, Portis has shown himself to be a better receiver in his short career.

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Thats another way of looking at it, and maybe Portis goes on and does great in Washington. But the fact is, Denver RB's have been averaging 1600 yards and 14 TD's a year since 1997. I do think Portis is talented, perhaps maybe even the most talented back from that group, at least the most explosive. But i think it is far from a safe bet that Portis will go to Washington and be able to put up "Denver" running back numbers there.Also, as MAurile pointed out, Portis seems to get banged up pretty easy, and while he may be a explosive back, will he be able to make it through a 300+ carry season, i am not so sure.

These are two big question marks in my mind, and would certainly scare me from spending a top 3-5 pick on him. I personally would rather take someone a little safer like Alexander or Amhan Green, as i am a little more confident as what kind of numbers i will get from them.

There's no comparison between Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary, on the one hand, and Portis on the other. Anderson and Gary ran with toughness and effort and balance and did a pretty good job of getting up through the hole, but you could say all that about 80% of the RBs in the NFL. Portis is special. His quickness, his burst, his moves, the way he changes direction and makes people miss, his overall Barry Sandersishness as a runner -- all are unmatched in the league today except maybe by Tomlinson.

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To compare Clinton Portis to Barry Sanders, is no different than Comparing Mike Anderson to Portis. Portis has certainly proven he is fast and runs well behind one of the best systems a RB has probably ever had. Barry is almost the exact opposite, Barry wasnt all that fast(in terms of NFL RB's) and did more with nothing than any player i have ever seen. And while Portis does have some nifty moves, he couldnt hold Barrys jock in that deparment. The only player who you could even argue has moves like Sanders is Dante Hall(with Charlie Garner being the closest RB)I am not saying Portis wil not have some level of success in Washington, i think he will, but i do think it will be a little different for him when he is not able to go untouched for the first 3 yards on every carry.

There's no comparison between Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary, on the one hand, and Portis on the other. Anderson and Gary ran with toughness and effort and balance and did a pretty good job of getting up through the hole, but you could say all that about 80% of the RBs in the NFL. Portis is special. His quickness, his burst, his moves, the way he changes direction and makes people miss, his overall Barry Sandersishness as a runner -- all are unmatched in the league today except maybe by Tomlinson.

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I agree, but it's tough to explain Anderson's numbers. I've posted my opinion on this a couple of times, but this is what I think the numbers reflect.Terrel Davis was a great back in a great RB system. Just never recovered from his injury.

Olandis Gary was a good back in a great RB system. You could argue that he never produced after leaving Denver, but you could also argue he never produced the same after tearing his ACL

Mike Anderson was a good back in a great RB system. The problem is that the numbers put Anderson closer to TD and Portis than they do to Gary. The only explainations I can come up with is either a) Anderson was a bit of a fluke in 2000 and couple a lot of teams by surprise, or b) Anderson is really a great back that has never been given a true chance to repeat his performance. I lean towards a).

Clinton Portis was a great back in a great RB system. Whether Washington turns into as good a system as Denver remains to be seen, but Portis will always be a great back.

Portis is good, but i think it is a little early to call him a "great back"

Here is a breakdown of the Den Rushing leaders since 1995:1995: Davis, 237/1117, 4.7, 7 tds rushing, 49/367, 7.5, 1 td rec1996: Davis, 345/1538, 4.5, 13 tds rushing, 36/310, 8.6, 2 tds rec1997: Davis, 369/1750, 4.7, 15 tds rushing, 42/287, 6.8, 0 tds rec1998: Davis, 392/2008, 5.1, 21 tds rushing, 25/217, 8.7, 2 tds rec1999: Gary, 276/1159, 4.2, 7 tds rushing, 21/159, 7.6, 0 tds rec2000: Anderson, 297/1487, 5.0, 15 tds rushing, 23/169, 7.3, 0 tds rec2001: Davis, 167/701, 4.2, 0 tds rushing, 12/69, 5.8, 0 tds rec2002: Portis, 273/1508, 5.5, 15 tds rushing, 33/364, 11, 2 tds rec2003, Portis, 290/1591, 5.5, 14 tds rushing, 38/314, 8.4, 0 tds recOver these seasons: Portis averaged, 151 YPG and 1.24 TDPG, 5.96 yds per touch, and a td every 20.5 touches.Anderson averaged, 138 YPG, 1.25 TDPG, 5.2 yds per touch, and a td every 21.33 touches.Davis averaged, 116 YPG, 0.85 TDPG, 5.0 tds per touch, and a td every 27.44 touches.Gary averaged, 110 YPG, 0.58 TDPG, 4.44 yds per touch, and a td every 42.43 touches.I think this clearly shows who has been the best RB in this time span for the Broncos. Portis has simply done more with every touch of the ball than all of the other guys.

Here is a breakdown of the Den Rushing leaders since 1995:1995: Davis, 237/1117, 4.7, 7 tds rushing, 49/367, 7.5, 1 td rec1996: Davis, 345/1538, 4.5, 13 tds rushing, 36/310, 8.6, 2 tds rec1997: Davis, 369/1750, 4.7, 15 tds rushing, 42/287, 6.8, 0 tds rec1998: Davis, 392/2008, 5.1, 21 tds rushing, 25/217, 8.7, 2 tds rec1999: Gary, 276/1159, 4.2, 7 tds rushing, 21/159, 7.6, 0 tds rec2000: Anderson, 297/1487, 5.0, 15 tds rushing, 23/169, 7.3, 0 tds rec2001: Davis, 167/701, 4.2, 0 tds rushing, 12/69, 5.8, 0 tds rec2002: Portis, 273/1508, 5.5, 15 tds rushing, 33/364, 11, 2 tds rec2003, Portis, 290/1591, 5.5, 14 tds rushing, 38/314, 8.4, 0 tds recOver these seasons: Portis averaged, 151 YPG and 1.24 TDPG, 5.96 yds per touch, and a td every 20.5 touches.Anderson averaged, 138 YPG, 1.25 TDPG, 5.2 yds per touch, and a td every 21.33 touches.Davis averaged, 116 YPG, 0.85 TDPG, 5.0 tds per touch, and a td every 27.44 touches.Gary averaged, 110 YPG, 0.58 TDPG, 4.44 yds per touch, and a td every 42.43 touches.I think this clearly shows who has been the best RB in this time span for the Broncos. Portis has simply done more with every touch of the ball than all of the other guys.

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I dont think it is really fair to include any of Davis's post injury stats, as he was clearly never the same after that. Plus, he wasnt the "main" back either, so with the 2001 season subtracted, Davis' averages where right in the same range as Portis, as Mike Andersons are as well, so really, the only thing i get from this, is Gary is not a very good RB, which i dont think is news to anyone.

I dont think it is really fair to include any of Davis's post injury stats, as he was clearly never the same after that. Plus, he wasnt the "main" back either, so with the 2001 season subtracted, Davis' averages where right in the same range as Portis, as Mike Andersons are as well, so really, the only thing i get from this, is Gary is not a very good RB, which i dont think is news to anyone.

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OK, I agree, Davis' post injury stats prob aren't fair to include. So here is how they look then:124.5 YPG, 1 TDPG, 5.1 yds per touch, and a td every 24.5 touches.Still Portis is the better RB! IMO he is far better at that. He is 0.76 yds per touch better then the next guy on the list, and 0.86 yds per touch better than Davis. That is close to a yard extra on evey touch of the ball! Add that to the fact that he scored more often than any of the other guys and I don't see how you can say it is still close. The only catagory he did not lead in was tds per game where Anderson beat him by a whopping 0.01. His yds per carry were better than everyone elses, as well as yds per rec.Portis, 5.5, 11.1 Davis, 4.8, 7.8Anderson, 5.0, 7.3Gary, 4.2, 7.6I'm sorry, but when one guy dominates just about every catagory such as Portis has. I don't see how you can still say it is close.

I can't believe people are hating on Portis this much. I know Denver had good run blockers, but didn't Joe Gibbs have some small line known as the Hogs???? I have to believe Washington's O-line will be better than average this season and that Portis will get his touches, health permitting. And unless you've looked at his medical chart, it's hard to see how past injuries impact future performance, just look at how "Fragile Fred" has done the last two years

Let's examine the facts for a minute.The Denver O-Line has produced a top 10 performane in 7 of the last 8 years.Portis has a history of top 10 performances with the Denver O-Line [2 years running - pun intended].Portis has not been healthy for an entire season yet. Who ever heard of a bruised sternum?The Washington O-Line has not produced a top 10 performance since 2000. You cannot ignore this fact; no matter whether the coach was Schottenheimer, Spurrier or now Gibbs.Now for the speculation.Portis will play 14 games, and:280 carries in 14 games1330 yards [his 5+ ypc are GONE; 4.75 ypc]12 TD56 receptions in 14 games560 yards2 TDThis is still a top 10 performance with around 17 ppg, but it is not 20 ppg or elite 5!

I dont think it is really fair to include any of Davis's post injury stats, as he was clearly never the same after that. Plus, he wasnt the "main" back either, so with the 2001 season subtracted, Davis' averages where right in the same range as Portis, as Mike Andersons are as well, so really, the only thing i get from this, is Gary is not a very good RB, which i dont think is news to anyone.

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OK, I agree, Davis' post injury stats prob aren't fair to include. So here is how they look then:124.5 YPG, 1 TDPG, 5.1 yds per touch, and a td every 24.5 touches.Still Portis is the better RB! IMO he is far better at that. He is 0.76 yds per touch better then the next guy on the list, and 0.86 yds per touch better than Davis. That is close to a yard extra on evey touch of the ball! Add that to the fact that he scored more often than any of the other guys and I don't see how you can say it is still close. The only catagory he did not lead in was tds per game where Anderson beat him by a whopping 0.01. His yds per carry were better than everyone elses, as well as yds per rec.Portis, 5.5, 11.1 Davis, 4.8, 7.8Anderson, 5.0, 7.3Gary, 4.2, 7.6I'm sorry, but when one guy dominates just about every catagory such as Portis has. I don't see how you can still say it is close.

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It can be argued that Portis' style fit Denver better, in that his strength(his quickness and elusiveness) worked well with a offensive line that pretty much put him 3 yards downfield without getting touched. Will that be the case in Washington? Will he be able to handle over 300 carries? Will Portis be as successful against a tougher schedule? Wills Gibbs use him the same as Shanahan? Will the Redskins keep games close enough to run the ball 25-30 times a game, or will they be playing catchup alot?These questions leave me a bit skeptical of Portis, and like i said before, clearly leaves him outside of my top 5-6 RB's.

I agree. He is definitely outside the top 5!He has at least 7 defenses that he faces which will put the hurt on him [PHI, TB, DAL, BAL]; this list may expand with the possibility of CLE, CIN, and NYG defenses playing more stoutly than the likes of Kansas City, Oaklan, or San Diego.It is not even close!

Portis is good, but i think it is a little early to call him a "great back"

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Should we wait till after lunch, then? He is a great runner. One of the three best in the NFL, and I don't think that would be disputed by very many people in the league. Notice that no team ever traded away Champ Bailey plus a #2 to make Mike Anderson or Olandis Gary the highest-paid RB in the history of the league. When you watch Clinton Portis run, watch him accelerate, watch him stop and start and change direction and find a hole that wasn't supposed to be there, I don't know how you can avoid calling him a great runner. There's nobody better right now, except probably LaDainian Tomlinson and maybe Priest Holmes.

Will he be able to handle over 300 carries? Will Portis be as successful against a tougher schedule? Wills Gibbs use him the same as Shanahan? Will the Redskins keep games close enough to run the ball 25-30 times a game, or will they be playing catchup alot?

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These are all very good, very legitimate questions. There are reasons to doubt whether Portis can be nearly as productive in Washington as he was in Denver. I just don't think questioning his talent is one of them.

Portis has not been healthy for an entire season yet. Who ever heard of a bruised sternum?

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Everyone who has ever had one:11:

Portis has not been healthy for an entire season yet. Who ever heard of a bruised sternum?

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When was Portis injured in his rookie season? He played all 16 games in 2002.If he got injured in one of those games, it sure didn't stop him from playing in the following week's game.