1.01 pick in redraft PPRs (1 Viewer)

[Sweetness_34]

So who you got? Charles or McCoy or Forte or ADP or even Calvin Johnson? And what about someone like Jimmy Graham if you play in the FBGPC where you get 1.5 pts per reception for TEs.

I am worried about Charles because his TDs were way higher than the rest and we all know TDs are so unpredictable. he had 4 TDs in one game against the Raiders....is he really going to repeat that?

The issue with McCoy is will Sproles eat up his catches?

The issue with Graham? Will they get a contract signed and not be an issue where he decides not to play until game 6?

Thoughts from the pool?

 

[cstu]

Safest pick out there is Graham, even without the 1.5 PPR for TE's. I'm not worried about him holding out.

If you need to start 2 RB I would go with Charles. The TD's are variable but he's in line for the same workload as last year. Barring injury he's in the top 5 even with less TD's.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

 

[Matty2D]

I was a huge Charles and McCoy fan last year, but I think Adrian Peterson would be my choice. He's going to get more work catching the ball and he finally has an OC that knows how to move the ball even with bad QB play.

 

[hotboyz]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004. He threw for 28, 31, 31, 27, 33 and 33, in his next 6 seasons respectively. Record breaking seasons don't happen very often, so why pay for last season's stats?

 

[steveski]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004. He threw for 28, 31, 31, 27, 33 and 33, in his next 6 seasons respectively. Record breaking seasons don't happen very often, so why pay for last season's stats?

The Broncos are stacked with receiving options and I don't think Ball is a great runner. If I had to guess if this season would be more similar to last season or more similar to those Colts seasons, I'd guess the former.

Not saying I'd take him 1st overall, but I also don't really see a reason for his numbers to go down substantially from last years.

 

[Tybeeman]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

I'd be taking McCoy over Charles for the reason Ghost points out.

 

[Sweet Love]

I think it is a bit of a crapshoot with McCoy, Charles, ADP, Graham and Forte...I've seen Forte go at the end of this bunch (pretty consistently), so I am kind of preferring him over the rest (just based on VBD).

If you put a gun to my head, McCoy would be my answer.

 

[pantherclub]

Graham

Calvin

Peyton

Brees

(maybe Rodgers if you are feeling frisky)

 

[thriftyrocker]

The issue with Graham is he was a different player after he got the plantar fascia injury, and it can be an injury that takes a long time to recover from. Mid 1st its an easy pick but in debate for 1.1, you have to consider it

 

[Sweet Love]

The issue with Graham is he was a different player after he got the plantar fascia injury, and it can be an injury that takes a long time to recover from. Mid 1st its an easy pick but in debate for 1.1, you have to consider it

I am beginning to wonder about him too...for example, we have a few reasons as to why he may not perform as expected (contract, foot), but what reasons do we have for his equaling his performance last year?

 

[steveski]

The issue with Graham is he was a different player after he got the plantar fascia injury, and it can be an injury that takes a long time to recover from. Mid 1st its an easy pick but in debate for 1.1, you have to consider it

I agree. Plus he'd go very long stretches or even a complete game without a catch. If I'm picking at 1.01 then I'm sure that I'm picking a guy that will score me some points when he's in the game. I know it's very rare for him to get shut out, but how difficult would it be for a team to mimic what the Patriots did and put their top corner on Graham? Yes, he may not get completely shut down like that, but it could limit him a lot.

If you're going to pick Graham 1st overall then do yourself a favor and at least try to trade back to the 4 or 5 spot and get something in return.

 

[steveski]

The issue with Graham is he was a different player after he got the plantar fascia injury, and it can be an injury that takes a long time to recover from. Mid 1st its an easy pick but in debate for 1.1, you have to consider it

I am beginning to wonder about him too...for example, we have a few reasons as to why he may not perform as expected (contract, foot), but what reasons do we have for his equaling his performance last year?

The reason he would equal his performance last year and every other year is that he is uncoverable my LBs, which he is being covered by 90% of the time.

But I agree with the concerns with Graham. He's an obvious first rounder and would (and do) take him in the mid 1st myself, but 1.01 is too risky for me.

 

[ImTheScientist]

So who you got? Charles or McCoy or Forte or ADP or even Calvin Johnson? And what about someone like Jimmy Graham if you play in the FBGPC where you get 1.5 pts per reception for TEs.

I am worried about Charles because his TDs were way higher than the rest and we all know TDs are so unpredictable. he had 4 TDs in one game against the Raiders....is he really going to repeat that?

The issue with McCoy is will Sproles eat up his catches?

The issue with Graham? Will they get a contract signed and not be an issue where he decides not to play until game 6?

Thoughts from the pool?

Is this for the draft with guppies?

 

[pantherclub]

So who you got? Charles or McCoy or Forte or ADP or even Calvin Johnson? And what about someone like Jimmy Graham if you play in the FBGPC where you get 1.5 pts per reception for TEs.

I am worried about Charles because his TDs were way higher than the rest and we all know TDs are so unpredictable. he had 4 TDs in one game against the Raiders....is he really going to repeat that?

The issue with McCoy is will Sproles eat up his catches?

The issue with Graham? Will they get a contract signed and not be an issue where he decides not to play until game 6?

Thoughts from the pool?

Out of curiosity.....are you asking advice for your draft with guppies?

I honest to God cannot believe he still posts on here acting like he has any remote sense of what he is doing.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004. He threw for 28, 31, 31, 27, 33 and 33, in his next 6 seasons respectively. Record breaking seasons don't happen very often, so why pay for last season's stats?

The Broncos are stacked with receiving options and I don't think Ball is a great runner. If I had to guess if this season would be more similar to last season or more similar to those Colts seasons, I'd guess the former.

Not saying I'd take him 1st overall, but I also don't really see a reason for his numbers to go down substantially from last years.

Those Colts' teams were also stacked with receiving options and Joseph Addai wasn't a "great" runner.

 

[karmarooster]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004. He threw for 28, 31, 31, 27, 33 and 33, in his next 6 seasons respectively. Record breaking seasons don't happen very often, so why pay for last season's stats?

The Broncos are stacked with receiving options and I don't think Ball is a great runner. If I had to guess if this season would be more similar to last season or more similar to those Colts seasons, I'd guess the former.

Not saying I'd take him 1st overall, but I also don't really see a reason for his numbers to go down substantially from last years.

Can you provide any example where a record breaking season wasn't followed by one with numbers substantially less the next year?

LT TD record: 31 TDs in 2006, 18 in 2007

Priest Holmes TD record: 27 TDs down to 15 TDs

Shaun Alexander: 28 TDs down to 7

OK, maybe RBs aren't a good example:

Jerry Rice TD record: 22 down to 9

Randy Moss TD record: 23 down to 11

Gronk TD record: 18 down to 11

OK, maybe we should stick with QBs:

Manning himself: 49 down to 28

Brady: 50 down to 28 (ignoring 2009)

The only record breaking numbers that hold are up are Drew Brees when it comes to yardage. Everyone (rightly) assumes Manning will be up around 5,000 yards passing with a decent chance of apporximating his record yardage numbers. But as far as touchdowns? He's not throwing 50.

Whether or not 5,000 yards and 40-45 TDs is worth the #1 overall pick is a reasonable question, but 5,500/55 isn't.

 

[Ghost Rider]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

a. A QB should NEVER be the first pick.

b. The odds of Manning throwing that many touchdowns again is about the same as a giraffe climbing out your butt tonight. Players NEVER follow up historic seasons like that by doing the same thing. Never.

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

Regarding the schedule, I am aware. I'll look at it more closely as my auctions draw near, but McCoy definitely has the advantage of playing in a division of soft defenses. And the AFC West plays the NFC West, which won't help Charles.

 

[Gottabesweet]

Charles or Mccoy still 1.1 in a setting where you start RB, 2WR, TE, 1RB/WR/TE and 1 WR/TE?

 

[georg013]

Give me Calvin.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I never considered a TE at 1.01 but at 1.5 PPR and Graham being such a huge advantage over any other TE that hes gotta be a top 4 pick.

I would still go ADP at 1.01

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

a. A QB should NEVER be the first pick.

b. The odds of Manning throwing that many touchdowns again is about the same as a giraffe climbing out your butt tonight. Players NEVER follow up historic seasons like that by doing the same thing. Never.

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

Regarding the schedule, I am aware. I'll look at it more closely as my auctions draw near, but McCoy definitely has the advantage of playing in a division of soft defenses. And the AFC West plays the NFC West, which won't help Charles.

rules a & b are not hard and fast, depending on league. and didnt Drew Brees bascialyl break the passing yardage record in back to back seasons (or come relatively close?? ) I could be remembering wrong.

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

 

[zamboni]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

Manning threw 49 TDs in 2004. He threw for 28, 31, 31, 27, 33 and 33, in his next 6 seasons respectively. Record breaking seasons don't happen very often, so why pay for last season's stats?

And Brady hasn't hit 40 since throwing for the then-record 50 TDs.

 

[zamboni]

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

I can see him at around 40 as well, but that's the point - probably not good value at 1.01 if that were the case.

What could also hurt Peyton's numbers is if the defense improves and he's not forced to get into as many shootouts. Those are exogenous factors that are tough to assess but very relevant.

 

[pantherclub]

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

I can see him at around 40 as well, but that's the point - probably not good value at 1.01 if that were the case.

What could also hurt Peyton's numbers is if the defense improves and he's not forced to get into as many shootouts. Those are exogenous factors that are tough to assess but very relevant.

was Petersons stats last year enough to justify him as the top pick?

I see your point about Peyton but he is as safe of a bet as there is. Peyton, Brees, Calvin or Graham (unless his foot concerns you)

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

I can see him at around 40 as well, but that's the point - probably not good value at 1.01 if that were the case.

What could also hurt Peyton's numbers is if the defense improves and he's not forced to get into as many shootouts. Those are exogenous factors that are tough to assess but very relevant.

I dont think the defense will improve that much unless Von Miller is 100% and is on the field all year.

Denver will have to throw to beat the SF, Seattle & NE of the world, plus it might take awhile for all the new faces on D the gel.

I have 1.01 in my oldest re-draft 12 man ppr, and due to league specifics (payouts for top qb, top overall scorer, etc.) Peyton is the only pick to make IMO.

 

[Sweetness_34]

I agree with those that say - tread carefully regarding chasing Peyton's career year. However, people conveniently forget that Graham had his career year too last year and so did Jamaal Charles.

Charles:

2013: 70 catches and 19 combined TDs

2012: 36 catches and 6 combined TDs

2011: Injured so not counting

2010: 45 catches and 8 combined TDs

Graham:

2013: 86 catches and 16 TDs

2012: 85 catches and 9 TDs

2011: 99 catches and 11 TDs

2010: 31 catches and 5 TDs (missed some games though that year)

Do you expect Graham to repeat 16 TDs and Charles to repeat 19 TDs too?

 

[pantherclub]

I agree with those that say - tread carefully regarding chasing Peyton's career year. However, people conveniently forget that Graham had his career year too last year and so did Jamaal Charles.

Charles:

2013: 70 catches and 19 combined TDs

2012: 36 catches and 6 combined TDs

2011: Injured so not counting

2010: 45 catches and 8 combined TDs

Graham:

2013: 86 catches and 16 TDs

2012: 85 catches and 9 TDs

2011: 99 catches and 11 TDs

2010: 31 catches and 5 TDs (missed some games though that year)

Do you expect Graham to repeat 16 TDs and Charles to repeat 19 TDs too?

its not about repeating its about being safe

 

[One]

I like Charles & McCoy, but Forte is interesting in a PPR as well.

 

[zamboni]

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

I can see him at around 40 as well, but that's the point - probably not good value at 1.01 if that were the case.

What could also hurt Peyton's numbers is if the defense improves and he's not forced to get into as many shootouts. Those are exogenous factors that are tough to assess but very relevant.

was Petersons stats last year enough to justify him as the top pick?

Not quite, but you have to put your cards somewhere and I would focus on the lower supply region of 3-down RBs.

 

[Ghost Rider]

How can Peyton Manning not be the obvious #1 selection? I know the QB position is deep but Peyton Manning is in a tier all to himself theres not a single bigger difference maker in Fantasy Football than Peyton Manning

a. A QB should NEVER be the first pick.

b. The odds of Manning throwing that many touchdowns again is about the same as a giraffe climbing out your butt tonight. Players NEVER follow up historic seasons like that by doing the same thing. Never.

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

Regarding the schedule, I am aware. I'll look at it more closely as my auctions draw near, but McCoy definitely has the advantage of playing in a division of soft defenses. And the AFC West plays the NFC West, which won't help Charles.

rules a & b are not hard and fast, depending on league. and didnt Drew Brees bascialyl break the passing yardage record in back to back seasons (or come relatively close?? ) I could be remembering wrong.

I think Peyton will be closer to 40/42 tds than 50 but I dont see him going under 33 either. (barring injury of course) . I expect Julius & Demaryious to be really dangerous and Welker had a down year, give him another cap/pre-season with Peyton and lets see how he does

i get what you are saying, but taking Peyton first means you will not have a stud RB or WR immediately out of the gate, and your margin for error in getting one that pans out as a stud in the middle rounds is much thinner. Meanwhile, if you take one of the stud RBs or Megatron first, you have a likely guaranteed stud, and you can still get a top 10-12 QB in Rounds 3-6. Quarterbacks are deep this year, too, so it makes more sense to wait on one, while shoring up with top tier guys at RB or WR (or even TE). But it's definitely not an exact science.

 

[pantherclub]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I agree with those that say - tread carefully regarding chasing Peyton's career year. However, people conveniently forget that Graham had his career year too last year and so did Jamaal Charles.

Charles:

2013: 70 catches and 19 combined TDs

2012: 36 catches and 6 combined TDs

2011: Injured so not counting

2010: 45 catches and 8 combined TDs

Graham:

2013: 86 catches and 16 TDs

2012: 85 catches and 9 TDs

2011: 99 catches and 11 TDs

2010: 31 catches and 5 TDs (missed some games though that year)

Do you expect Graham to repeat 16 TDs and Charles to repeat 19 TDs too?

There is a big difference between those guys having a career year and Peyton having the best year a QB has ever had. Besides, Charles and Graham are both still young, so what you are calling career years could end up not being much better than what their normal years become as they glide through their primes. In other words, Peyton is more likely to have a bigger drop-off, percentage-wise, than those guys are.

 

[Ghost Rider]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

It all depends on how you define bust, thought. Some think if you take a RB 1st overall and he doesn't finish as RB1 that he is therefore a bust, but many of us do not see it that way. The way I see it, if you take a RB first or someone like Megatron, and they finish in, say, the top 5 at their position, they are absolutely not a bust.

Also, I think it is understandable to be apprehensive after so many 1st rounders busted last year (Spiller, Richardson, Martin, Foster, Rice), but that many consensus 1st round RBs busting in one year was unusual. It probably didn't help that a lot of 2nd and 3rd tier RBs in drafts last year were busts or slight disappointments (Ridley, SJax, Morris, MJD, L Miller).

 

[pantherclub]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

It all depends on how you define bust, thought. Some think if you take a RB 1st overall and he doesn't finish as RB1 that he is therefore a bust, but many of us do not see it that way. The way I see it, if you take a RB first or someone like Megatron, and they finish in, say, the top 5 at their position, they are absolutely not a bust.

Also, I think it is understandable to be apprehensive after so many 1st rounders busted last year (Spiller, Richardson, Martin, Foster, Rice), but that many consensus 1st round RBs busting in one year was unusual. It probably didn't help that a lot of 2nd and 3rd tier RBs in drafts last year were busts or slight disappointments (Ridley, SJax, Morris, MJD, L Miller).

I am saying bust as in not even in the top 15-20

 

[zamboni]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

Sure, stud RBs often bust (or fail to live up to expectations), but as others have said, you can put your bets on a stud RB at 1.01 and still get a quality QB afterwards. If you go QB at 1.01 and he busts, then you have to hope to hell that your RB far exceeds expectations. More wiggle room when you gamble on a stud RB and backfill thereafter than going QB first..

 

[Sweetness_34]

I agree with those that say - tread carefully regarding chasing Peyton's career year. However, people conveniently forget that Graham had his career year too last year and so did Jamaal Charles.

Charles:

2013: 70 catches and 19 combined TDs

2012: 36 catches and 6 combined TDs

2011: Injured so not counting

2010: 45 catches and 8 combined TDs

Graham:

2013: 86 catches and 16 TDs

2012: 85 catches and 9 TDs

2011: 99 catches and 11 TDs

2010: 31 catches and 5 TDs (missed some games though that year)

Do you expect Graham to repeat 16 TDs and Charles to repeat 19 TDs too?

There is a big difference between those guys having a career year and Peyton having the best year a QB has ever had. Besides, Charles and Graham are both still young, so what you are calling career years could end up not being much better than what their normal years become as they glide through their primes. In other words, Peyton is more likely to have a bigger drop-off, percentage-wise, than those guys are.

Oh so age matters now? lol....didn't Peyton just have his career year despite being 35+?

 

[fightingillini]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

Sure, stud RBs often bust (or fail to live up to expectations), but as others have said, you can put your bets on a stud RB at 1.01 and still get a quality QB afterwards. If you go QB at 1.01 and he busts, then you have to hope to hell that your RB far exceeds expectations. More wiggle room when you gamble on a stud RB and backfill thereafter than going QB first..

And RB15 is still a solid RB2, it's not like the stud RB isn't valuable, he's just less valuable than initially projected.

It would be interesting to see the "60% bust rate" broken down by RBs that got hurt vs RBs that just underperformed. I would venture a guess that the vast majority of 1st round stud RBs that busted is due to missing time with injuries (or in Spiller's case, playing through a injury that clearly affected him).

And say Pantherclub is correct and stud RBs bust at 60% clip. That means 40% chance that they won't.....which gives you a big advantage over the competition. And if your stud RB exceeds expectations.....you're talking championship. If your stud RB busts and finishes RB15, you can still win the title if you got great value in later rounds, waiver wire, or trades. In other words, you can't really lose it with your stud RB busting to say RB15. Now if your stud RB goes down for the year, well, that's just bad luck. So I would rather up my odds of winning the title and take at RB at 1.01 even though there's a good chance he might not live up to expectations (or get hurt).

Peyton has to have a career year again to be worth the 1.01 pick. You only take Peyton at 1.01 if you have to start 2QBs. And that's just to hold serve on value. You need Peyton to have a career year AND hit on your later RBs to compete for a championship. Much tougher road IMO.

 

[jurb26]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

I'd be taking McCoy over Charles for the reason Ghost points out.

Strength of schedule is the absolute worst predictor of future success. More often than not, the strength of schedule is totally wrong.

 

[ffgiant]

This is not a good year to have the No. 1 draft pick for NFL teams. I guess similar things can be said about fantasy draft. I don't see a clear cut player on top of the draft board. I'd rather trade down. Not a big fan for any of the RBs mentioned.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

I'd be taking McCoy over Charles for the reason Ghost points out.

Strength of schedule is the absolute worst predictor of future success. More often than not, the strength of schedule is totally wrong.

while that is true. Im willing to bet Jcharles doesnt do too well against SF & Sea and Ariz and STL are no slouches either.

 

[jurb26]

I'll take Charles as the 1.01 rather easily. He's the unquestioned top offensive threat in KC, arguably the best duel threat RB in the NFL and Reid's system is ultra friendly to his skill set. Yeah Charles had a career year last year and many of us predicted it. He did it because Reid finally used him properly and well, he stayed healthy. I'm going to assume Charles has no greater risk of getting injured than the others here and I don't see why Reid would suddenly alter his approach. Not only is Charles one of the best RBs in the NFL, he's also the best receiver in KC. This matter because it's PPR and he will again catch 70 or so balls. Maybe his TDs do drop from 19, understandable given how high a number that is. Still, I think he will have more receptions than any other RB in the NFL. Combine that with his touches on the ground and I see him as the best choice for 1.01.

 

[jurb26]

Charles. He should still score a lot (he scored in 13 of 16 games last year), he'll catch a million balls (he had 70 last year to McCoy's 52, and Sproles will likely take some of those away from McCoy), and he's always a big play waiting to happen. The one possible drawback could be the schedule, which probably favors the other two top RBs over Charles.

Charles schedule is brutual and he lost 2 starting Olinemen

I'd be taking McCoy over Charles for the reason Ghost points out.

Strength of schedule is the absolute worst predictor of future success. More often than not, the strength of schedule is totally wrong.

while that is true. Im willing to bet Jcharles doesnt do too well against SF & Sea and Ariz and STL are no slouches either.

The beauty of Chalres is that in games he struggles on the ground, he pretty much makes up for it in the air. So I don't really care that much if he post paltry numbers in 1 or the other because he almost never will in both. These good defenses may take something away from him but not both.

 

[pantherclub]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

Sure, stud RBs often bust (or fail to live up to expectations), but as others have said, you can put your bets on a stud RB at 1.01 and still get a quality QB afterwards. If you go QB at 1.01 and he busts, then you have to hope to hell that your RB far exceeds expectations. More wiggle room when you gamble on a stud RB and backfill thereafter than going QB first..

sortof but not really

 

[pantherclub]

These supposed stud running backs bust out at over a 60% clip.

Sure, stud RBs often bust (or fail to live up to expectations), but as others have said, you can put your bets on a stud RB at 1.01 and still get a quality QB afterwards. If you go QB at 1.01 and he busts, then you have to hope to hell that your RB far exceeds expectations. More wiggle room when you gamble on a stud RB and backfill thereafter than going QB first..

And RB15 is still a solid RB2, it's not like the stud RB isn't valuable, he's just less valuable than initially projected.

It would be interesting to see the "60% bust rate" broken down by RBs that got hurt vs RBs that just underperformed. I would venture a guess that the vast majority of 1st round stud RBs that busted is due to missing time with injuries (or in Spiller's case, playing through a injury that clearly affected him).

And say Pantherclub is correct and stud RBs bust at 60% clip. That means 40% chance that they won't.....which gives you a big advantage over the competition. And if your stud RB exceeds expectations.....you're talking championship. If your stud RB busts and finishes RB15, you can still win the title if you got great value in later rounds, waiver wire, or trades. In other words, you can't really lose it with your stud RB busting to say RB15. Now if your stud RB goes down for the year, well, that's just bad luck. So I would rather up my odds of winning the title and take at RB at 1.01 even though there's a good chance he might not live up to expectations (or get hurt).

Peyton has to have a career year again to be worth the 1.01 pick. You only take Peyton at 1.01 if you have to start 2QBs. And that's just to hold serve on value. You need Peyton to have a career year AND hit on your later RBs to compete for a championship. Much tougher road IMO.

For fantasy purposes they are exactly the same

 

[Ack88]

For my money, AP, Charles, and McCoy are all very tightly grouped. Feel like it's splitting hairs to choose. But, since this is ppr, and Charles is the most likely candidate to accrue the most receptions, I'll take him.

Ideally, I'd like pick #3 this year so I can get one of the elite rb and the best available player in round 2.

This, of course, presumes you start 2rb.

My top tier:

Charles

McCoy

AP

Calvin

Graham

My next group:

Ball

Lacy

Dez

Demarius

AJ Green

Rodgers

Brees

Manning

 

[cloppbeast]

Don't pay for last season, go with Adrian Peterson. He'll catch more passes than he's ever seen with Norv Turner calling plays.

Can't go wrong with Calivn, either; although I prefer Peterson slightly.

McCoy will probably catch fewer passes with the addition of Sproles - a big deal in PPR formats.

You could find a few of reasons to avoid Charles - offensive line gets significantly worse, work load likely decreases. High risk.

Graham at 1.01 has too much audacity. Foolish. Trade back if you want him.

Take Manning in the second.

 

[fightingillini]

Don't pay for last season, go with Adrian Peterson. He'll catch more passes than he's ever seen with Norv Turner calling plays.

Can't go wrong with Calivn, either; although I prefer Peterson slightly.

McCoy will probably catch fewer passes with the addition of Sproles - a big deal in PPR formats.

You could find a few of reasons to avoid Charles - offensive line gets significantly worse, work load likely decreases. High risk.

Graham at 1.01 has too much audacity. Foolish. Trade back if you want him.

Take Manning in the second.

You really think Manning is going to be available in the 2nd? He's not going to last past the 1st 10 picks in any draft this year.