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10.9.19 Edition: Most Likely To Happen... (1 Viewer)

Which of these do you think is most likely to happen?

  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election

    Votes: 28 20.0%

  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Loses 2020 Election To The Democrat

    Votes: 100 71.4%

  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Republican Candidate wins 2020 Electi

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Democratic Candidate wins 2020 Electi

    Votes: 12 8.6%
  • Total voters
    140
I voted 2nd option (survives, loses to Dem) but I think it’s almost as likely option 1 happens (survives, wins), for a variety of obvious reasons.

I have a very dim view of our future.

 
This is different to me than trying to take many, many dimensions of differences between posters here and the  general public and boil it down to a single value from 1 to 10.   In this case it seems like just answering a series of questions

  • What is the probability that the House votes to impeach?  I don't think we see the word use if this wasn't almost a certainty.   To keep the math simple say 90%.   
  • If the House fails to impeach I think it makes reelection a safe bet.  Again to keep math simple say 60% reelected.
  • Last week you asked about being removed by the Senate.  I added a few other ways which he might be removed to the calculation which will all be treated as the same thing.  I think that I said that as of what has already happened it would be about 10% chance but I think that would grow as Trump's antics would push the chances up.  See this week's letter refusing to cooperate as an example.  But still only 30% or so.  To keep things simple we will say 30% remove, 60% "survives", and 10% not impeached at all.
  • If the House impeaches, but the Senate refuses to remove I'd like to say that it switches 60-40 to defeat but the pessimist in me thinks it is still about 50-50.   If Trump is removed by the Senate I think it has to be at least 60-40 for the democrat.  
So from here

  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election  (6% + 30% = 36%) 
  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Loses 2020 Election To The Democrat (4% + 30% = 34%)
  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Republican Candidate wins 2020 Election (12%)
  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Democratic Candidate wins 2020 Election (18%)
On one hand this is so depressing.  On the other hand it is pretty close and my pessimism is baked in.  Just a little bit of optimism flips one and two.

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
This is different to me than trying to take many, many dimensions of differences between posters here and the  general public and boil it down to a single value from 1 to 10.   In this case it seems like just answering a series of questions

  • What is the probability that the House votes to impeach?  I don't think we see the word use if this wasn't almost a certainty.   To keep the math simple say 90%.   
  • If the House fails to impeach I think it makes reelection a safe bet.  Again to keep math simple say 60% reelected.
  • Last week you asked about being removed by the Senate.  I added a few other ways which he might be removed to the calculation which will all be treated as the same thing.  I think that I said that as of what has already happened it would be about 10% chance but I think that would grow as Trump's antics would push the chances up.  See this week's letter refusing to cooperate as an example.  But still only 30% or so.  To keep things simple we will say 30% remove, 60% "survives", and 10% not impeached at all.
  • If the House impeaches, but the Senate refuses to remove I'd like to say that it switches 60-40 to defeat but the pessimist in me thinks it is still about 50-50.   If Trump is removed by the Senate I think it has to be at least 60-40 for the democrat.  
So from here

  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election  (6% + 30% = 36%) 
  • Trump Survives Impeachment and Loses 2020 Election To The Democrat (4% + 30% = 34%)
  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Republican Candidate wins 2020 Election (12%)
  • Trump is removed with Impeachment before the 2020 Election and Democratic Candidate wins 2020 Election (18%)
On one hand this is so depressing.  On the other hand it is pretty close and my pessimism is baked in.  Just a little bit of optimism flips one and two.
Click to expand...
So you're saying there is a 48% chance that the Republican nominee wins the 2020 election.

You seem radical.

 
Voted for "Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election".

Here's why:

1. Trump will never lose his base. Ever.

2. The impeachment will not help him, but it won't hurt him either, because...

3. He's going to take down Biden with his phony "Joe Biden needs to be investigated!" act.

4. That will leave Liz Warren as the Democratic candidate.

5. Liz Warren will lose bigly because this country is not ready for a female liberal president. They might accept a male liberal, but not a female liberal.

 
Mister CIA said:
This is reverse-jinx fantasy football BS, circa 1998.
Click to expand...
I wish it was just that. I think you’re (lots of people) underestimating the danger, considering a complicit Republican Party, Foreign disinformation, and the appeal of the last gasp power grab to a group that has been steadily losing the culture war.

 
House votes to impeach.  Mitch does what Mitch does best and the Senate doesn’t “convict”. Trump proclaims exoneration, plays the victim and losses to a Dem.  

 
Last edited by a moderator:
cosjobs said:
what if he quits or dies? Probably at least a 20% chance of that. 
Click to expand...
i feel like trump quitting (or being "managed out" with some type of arranged deal where he skates on certain crimes) is a huge possibility at this point and is tantamount to him being removed by the senate in terms of this poll. it's an outcome the senate would vastly prefer to actually having to stand up and vote on (see, for example, nixon) 

 
[scooter] said:
Voted for "Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election".

Here's why:

1. Trump will never lose his base. Ever.

2. The impeachment will not help him, but it won't hurt him either, because...

3. He's going to take down Biden with his phony "Joe Biden needs to be investigated!" act.

4. That will leave Liz Warren as the Democratic candidate.

5. Liz Warren will lose bigly because this country is not ready for a female liberal president. They might accept a male liberal, but not a female liberal.
Click to expand...
Sadly, voted the same for the same reasons.

 
I'm surprised only 14% of us think a re-election is likely. In the end, many vote for self-interest and party agenda over all else. Chances of impeachment/removal seem slim.And Ds don't seem poised to nominate someone who will create the aile-crossing or enthusiasm for high turnout needed. It's not a slam dunk, but seems most likely with where we are today.

 
I think it's highly likely that he's impeached, highly unlikely he's removed from office, and highly unlikely he wins re-election.

 
ShamrockPride said:
What are the obvious reasons he would win?
Click to expand...
The obvious reasons he could win are-

  • Voter suppression.  
  • 30-20 red state head start
  • Getting too late for the economy to tank  (not cheering for it)
  • RGB's health...maybe Thomas' health
  • "Inordinate fear of" socialism
  • Democrats chase the few independents that don't already have a strong lean rather than get out the base
  • Democrats chase the few extremes that have little other place to go rather than get out the base (this is more to do with presentation than the ideas itself.  For example M4A explained one way would appeal to the base and even center-right, explained another will only appeal to the extreme left.)
  • A "rally around the president" event happens   
  • Russians are really good at influencing voters
  • The wear and tear of the Trump presidency just has too many voters feeling too beat down to bother to vote.  They gave all they could in 2018.

 
Trump survives and the election doesn’t happen or is ignored. I don’t see him doing debates and I don’t see him admitting defeat. It’s worst case scenario but that’s the direction we have been going for awhile.

 
[scooter] said:
Voted for "Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election".

Here's why:

1. Trump will never lose his base. Ever.

2. The impeachment will not help him, but it won't hurt him either, because...

3. He's going to take down Biden with his phony "Joe Biden needs to be investigated!" act.

4. That will leave Liz Warren as the Democratic candidate.

5. Liz Warren will lose bigly because this country is not ready for a female liberal president. They might accept a male liberal, but not a female liberal.
Click to expand...
Unfortunately I believe this is how it plays out as well.  The American voter's attention span is too short and will be quickly turned to how Warren and Co. will turn this country into a socialist cesspool and everything in our lives will suck if you vote for the Democrat.  She's missing the likability factor of Sanders, Mayor Pete, and Biden and Democrats are making a huge mistake if she wins the nomination.  

 
Captain Cranks said:
Unfortunately I believe this is how it plays out as well.  The American voter's attention span is too short and will be quickly turned to how Warren and Co. will turn this country into a socialist cesspool and everything in our lives will suck if you vote for the Democrat.  She's missing the likability factor of Sanders, Mayor Pete, and Biden and Democrats are making a huge mistake if she wins the nomination.  
Click to expand...
Personally, I feel that every Democratic candidate has a fatal flaw which can be exploited by Trump. (e.g., "Sanders is more socialist than Warren and also too old!")

It seems like Biden would be the safest choice, and has the best chance of withstanding Trump's attacks during the general election (even with Trump's phony "corruption" attacks). But the Democrats are going to eat their own during the primaries and I don't think Biden will survive the feeding frenzy.

 
[scooter] said:
Voted for "Trump Survives Impeachment and Wins 2020 Election".

Here's why:

1. Trump will never lose his base. Ever.

2. The impeachment will not help him, but it won't hurt him either, because...

3. He's going to take down Biden with his phony "Joe Biden needs to be investigated!" act.

4. That will leave Liz Warren as the Democratic candidate.

5. Liz Warren will lose bigly because this country is not ready for a female liberal president. They might accept a male liberal, but not a female liberal.
Click to expand...
Which is really sad because we had no problem electing the first internet troll POTUS.

 
Eh, I hate these. We know how much of this board falls. I guess if this were a bar bet with a friend I'd put $20 down that Trumpy resigns by May.

 
trader jake said:
You're missing a few crocodiles in your moat.
Click to expand...
I’m allowed to speculate as much as anyone. I’ve been pretty much right all a long. In the summer of 16 I said he would win the GOP when most thought he was a novelty. I’ve said the GOP wouldn’t challenge him on anything and they haven’t. I have said the Mueller legacy will rest on on evidence but on public opinion and that’s how it played out. Trump was able to retain support of his voting block through all of that and I don’t see him losing it over an election.

 
I don't think the National narrative changes from 18 and the EC pathway isn't great for R's. 

He survives impeachment.....but loses the election.   It will be closer than D's will want it to be, I think Trump will mine some votes from a demographic we won't think he will, but it will be definitive.  

 
Max Power said:
I dont think the black vote will come out for Warren and Trump will pull more of that demographic in 2020. 
Click to expand...
This is wrong. If Warren is the nominee she may very well lose (in fact I’m afraid of it) but blacks won’t be the reason why. No matter who the Democrat is they will come out in huge numbers, matching 2008 or perhaps exceeding it. 

I think a lot of you have yet to realize just how much poison Trump has become to a good chunk of the electorate. 

 
timschochet said:
This is wrong. If Warren is the nominee she may very well lose (in fact I’m afraid of it) but blacks won’t be the reason why. No matter who the Democrat is they will come out in huge numbers, matching 2008 or perhaps exceeding it. 

I think a lot of you have yet to realize just how much poison Trump has become to a good chunk of the electorate. 
Click to expand...
You're making some pretty sketchy assumptions about African Americans here, Tim.

 
Kal El said:
Gut feeling: he gets through the impeachment but gets crushed in the election.
Click to expand...
By whom?  The democrats are a mess; there is no clear front runner and god help us all if Hillary runs again.  It's bad enough that Weekend at Bernie's is running again.  Trump has his base.  His base votes.  Trump has already demonstrated he will win at all costs.  

He's going to run away with the 2020 election.  There will be no impeachment.  

 
snitwitch said:
i feel like trump quitting (or being "managed out" with some type of arranged deal where he skates on certain crimes) is a huge possibility at this point and is tantamount to him being removed by the senate in terms of this poll. it's an outcome the senate would vastly prefer to actually having to stand up and vote on (see, for example, nixon) 
Click to expand...
i think that the only way that he would ever quit is if he felt like there was a 75% chance that he was going to be removed by the senate.  although honestly in that case, i'm sure he would still just spin it as deep state and conspiracies and maintain a base for his next venture.

 
timschochet said:
This is wrong. If Warren is the nominee she may very well lose (in fact I’m afraid of it) but blacks won’t be the reason why. No matter who the Democrat is they will come out in huge numbers, matching 2008 or perhaps exceeding it. 

I think a lot of you have yet to realize just how much poison Trump has become to a good chunk of the electorate. 
Click to expand...
It's not wrong, I think you are overestimating how bad people think Trump are. We shall see though. 

And I hope you can acknowledge how poorly Warren is viewed by black voters. 

 
timschochet said:
This is wrong. If Warren is the nominee she may very well lose (in fact I’m afraid of it) but blacks won’t be the reason why. No matter who the Democrat is they will come out in huge numbers, matching 2008 or perhaps exceeding it. 

I think a lot of you have yet to realize just how much poison Trump has become to a good chunk of the electorate. 
Click to expand...
Yeah, this is objectively a joke of a statement by any measure.

 
Ilov80s said:
I’m allowed to speculate as much as anyone. 
Click to expand...
Agree on that, but you stated there would not be an election. ?? Or was that a typo?  Speculation is fine (hell, it's what we do here), but if you really believe there just won't be an election at all we'll just agree to disagree.

 
trader jake said:
Agree on that, but you stated there would not be an election. ?? Or was that a typo?  Speculation is fine (hell, it's what we do here), but if you really believe there just won't be an election at all we'll just agree to disagree.
Click to expand...
I typed that. No election or disputed election or a lack of acceptance on the election results. I just don’t see a smooth transition of power.

Do you think he will do debates again? 

 
Ilov80s said:
I typed that. No election or disputed election or a lack of acceptance on the election results. I just don’t see a smooth transition of power.

Do you think he will do debates again? 
Click to expand...
Got it, makes sense.  Disputing the election results is much different than no election (which is what I thought you were saying).  Trump was telegraphing that game plan in 2016, so it seems reasonable to expect it should he lose in 2020.

I suspect Trump will participate in the debates.  He's a narcissist and will do so to do his thing.  If he does well he can crow.  If he does poorly he can tweet all about the liar of a candidate opposite of him, how the media/questions were slanted against him, etc.

 
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