1st & 2nd Round Pick Value (1 Viewer)

[FishaOfMen]

In Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto on ESPN.com, he stressed that first and second round picks were far and away the most important pics of a draft. He showed that the average points scored over a season by first and second round picks were pretty close in 2012 in 2013 and that there was a significant drop-off afterwards.

http://espn.go.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/NFLDK2K14_berrymanifesto/matthew-berry-fantasy-football-draft-day-strategy-revealed-draft-day-manifesto

I was fairly convinced by his arguments until I realized that quarterbacks could skew his numbers (Their high point totals would greatly increase averages.) In most ESPN standard leagues, there were three quarterbacks picked in the first two rounds, and then people waited until later rounds to pick quarterbacks. This doesn’t nullify Berry's point, but it makes me want to investigate further. If Berry's point is true, it will significantly change my auction strategy. Previously I had relied on drafts chock-full of 3rd & 4th round players.

What Berry should’ve done was compare postseason VBD’s of players drafted to determine the discrepancy between player production in different rounds. Does anyone know if this information is available? Does anyone even keep track of postseason VBD’s? Additional thoughts?

 

[RandyDB]

check out the 8-9 podcast of Fantasy Football weekly with Paul Charchian

he does something that sounds like what you might be looking for.

 

[LawFitz]

Previously I had relied on drafts chock-full of 3rd & 4th round players.

How has this worked out for you in the past?

I tend to do the opposite. I sacrifice depth for 3-4 first and second round players. That strategy has served me best in 12 years of auction drafting. However, I play in a ten-team league, where the waiver wire plays a fairly big role, so YMMV.

 

[FishaOfMen]

Previously I had relied on drafts chock-full of 3rd & 4th round players.

How has this worked out for you in the past?

I tend to do the opposite. I sacrifice depth for 3-4 first and second round players. That strategy has served me best in 12 years of auction drafting. However, I play in a ten-team league, where the waiver wire plays a fairly big role, so YMMV.

It's actually worked out pretty well. I won my 12-team PPR league two years ago with a 13-1-1 record. I came in second last year. It seems that all the values are in the third and fourth rounds in my league. For instance, last year I acquired Vincent Jackson for $17 with a $200 budget. He was a clear-cut third-round pick and I had him valued at $24.

After thinking about it more, it seems that the importance of first and second round picks are baked into their auction values. Thus, it's not worth paying more then a player's value even for early round picks.