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2/3/22 Bengals line opened at +3.5, currently +4.5 (1 Viewer)

Hot Sauce Guy

Hot Sauce Guy

Footballguy
I believe ML is +170

Last week was a productive debate/discussion, so I figured I’d get it started again. 

Once again I’ll ask: is the +4 a gift from the gambling gods, or an Admiral Akbar (a trap)

A lot of hype about the Rams DL vs the Bengals OL, but I don’t see much about a very good Cinci defense that achieved something historic against the Chiefs: they shut out Mahomes for an entire half.

The Rams are good - they’re also banged up. They have 2 primary weapons in the receiving game & possibly no Higbee.

Cinci has more depth at WR & arguably a better running back stable (though Mixon hasn’t been great down the stretch & playoffs).
 

I don’t think I can pick Chase over Kupp, but then I don’t know if I can pick Kupp over Chase. I like Higgins more than OBJ, though the Rams use OBJ well. And it sounds like Uzomah is trending well towards playing, so let’s say both starting TEs are a wash. 

Super Bowls aren’t typically blowouts IIRC. I don’t see a blowout here either. 

The O/U is 48, and I like the game to be south of that, but others might have other opinions here.

Your thoughts? 

 
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It's -4.5 at most books now. I do think the Rams pass rush will be the difference. I lean under as well but this COULD evolve into a shootout. My prediction is LAR over CIN 24 - 17

 
The Bengals staff impressed the heck out of me and I’d give the QB advantage to Burrow. Can’t call a Bengals win outright but I’d run not walk with Bengals +4.5

 
I rolled with my gut & bet Cinci +4. 

As with the Chiefs game, I feel like the Bengals can score on just about every drive, whether it’s 3 with their K or 7 with Chase/Higgins (the latter of whom I expect to take full advantage of not being locked up on Ramsey).

I’m tempted to bet Cinci ML as well, but I’ll wait until we get closer to game day to decide that.

I’ve done really well with the underdogs all through the playoffs, so I hesitate to stop now. 

 
Teasers are not always the best way to go, but if you can get it up to +10.5 & U54.5 it could be a decent way to bet this game. Two solid defenses should keep things in check. 🏈🏈

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I rolled with my gut & bet Cinci +4. 

As with the Chiefs game, I feel like the Bengals can score on just about every drive, whether it’s 3 with their K or 7 with Chase/Higgins (the latter of whom I expect to take full advantage of not being locked up on Ramsey).

I’m tempted to bet Cinci ML as well, but I’ll wait until we get closer to game day to decide that.

I’ve done really well with the underdogs all through the playoffs, so I hesitate to stop now. 
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In a way I like money line better. There is definitely a scenario where the Bengals can’t get off the field or block the pass rush and the whole game looks like Chiefs 1h. But if the Bengals are covering the spread late down 3 or 4, do you wanna bet against them getting the win right now?  

 
Agree with Leroy Hoard that a teaser with Bengals and the under is a good bet. I'm leaning towards the under right now,I agree that both defenses could control this game. However I can also see a shootout developing. My strongest opinion right now would be the under,but it's still over a week away and that could change. I'll wait on the final injury report and throw some action somewhere.

 
At -3, I felt like it could go either way, but at -4.5 I’m all in on the Bengals. I predict Rams by a FG or less, or even a Bengals win by 1-3 points. My prediction is Rams 23-20 or 24-21 either way. I see plenty of FGs so I’m betting the under.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Teasers are not always the best way to go, but if you can get it up to +10.5 & U54.5 it could be a decent way to bet this game. Two solid defenses should keep things in check. 🏈🏈
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Very much agree.  Not quite a WONG teaser but it makes a lot of sense here

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Teasers are not always the best way to go, but if you can get it up to +10.5 & U54.5 it could be a decent way to bet this game. Two solid defenses should keep things in check. 🏈🏈
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Great idea. I just dropped $100 on a parlay teaser of the 2. 

Pays $90, but it seems like a relatively safe investment. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Should we talk prop bets? The Super Bowl is prop heaven, after all. 
💡 
 

what props do y’all like? 
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Not sure, but here are some first TD prices:

Cooper Kupp (+500)

Joe Mixon (+700)

Cam Akers (+750)

Ja'Marr Chase (+750)

Odell Beckham Jr. (+850)

Tee Higgins (+1000)

Tyler Boyd (+1300)

Sony Michel (+1300)

Tyler Higbee (+1500)

Kendall Blanton (+1500)

Van Jefferson (+1500)

C.J. Uzomah (+1800)

Drew Sample (+2000)

LA Rams Defense (+2500)

CIN Bengals Defense (+3000)

Joe Burrow (+3000)

Samaje Perine (+3000)

Ben Skowronek (+3000)

Brycen Hopkins (+4500)

Matthew Stafford (+5000)

Johnny Mundt (+5000)

Chris Evans (+5500)

Brandon Powell (+8000)

No Touchdown Scored (+9000)

 
IHEARTFF said:
Higbee +1500
Click to expand...
I think the Higbee & Uzomah lines reflect their possible absence, since neither are practicing & we don't yet know if either will play. 

Here are the props I've bet so far: 

(Caesar's) 

  • Bengals to win, both Chase & Kupp score (+600)
  • Player to commit 1st turnover: Stafford +200  (he do be throwing him some Ints)
  • Mixon 1st TD for Bengals & Kupp 1st TD for Rams (+1600)
  • Stafford over 299.5 PaYd, Chase over 99.5 ReYd (+450)
  • Last scoring play of the game: Bengals FG (+400)
  • Distance of 1st  TD in the game: Over 8.5 yards (-115)
Not putting huge $ on any of the props (or my regular bets either for that matter) - just some fun little wagers to keep the game interesting. 

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think the Higbee & Uzomah lines reflect their possible absence, since neither are practicing & we don't yet know if either will play. 

Here are the props I've bet so far: 

(Caesar's) 

  • Bengals to win, both Chase & Kupp score (+600)
  • Player to commit 1st turnover: Stafford +200  (he do be throwing him some Ints)
  • Mixon 1st TD for Bengals & Kupp 1st TD for Rams (+1600)
  • Stafford over 299.5 PaYd, Chase over 99.5 ReYd (+450)
  • Last scoring play of the game: Bengals FG (+400)
  • Distance of 1st  TD in the game: Over 8.5 yards (-115)
Not putting huge $ on any of the props (or my regular bets either for that matter) - just some fun little wagers to keep the game interesting. 
Click to expand...
Forgot about Higbee health. Maybe not free money after all. You got some decent odds on yours. 
 

If Higbee isn’t 100%, then I like Tyler Boyd +1300 as a nice option. 

 
IHEARTFF said:
Forgot about Higbee health. Maybe not free money after all. You got some decent odds on yours. 
Click to expand...
last year I went .500 on my prop bets. Came out about $200 ahead for the effort. But man it made the game exciting as hell.

The killer last year was Succup Over 1.5 FG. He had 1 already. They were at the 30-something on 4th & 4 and lined up to kick it. And the dumbest offsides in history happened. IIRC, on the very next play Brady tossed a TD & there wasn’t another FGA by the Bucs all game. That was my $200 prop. If that one didn’t go south I woulda done an awful lot better for that game.  :rant:

 
I think the Rams match up too well with the Bengals. They have a stud CB who can limit Chase. Stud D Line that can limit the ground game and match up vs Cincy's porous OLine very well.

Although Bengals have been keeping games close, I like the Rams to win a low scoring game. I'll say 24-17

So I like Rams -4 and U48.5

 
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jobarules said:
I think the Rams match up too well with the Bengals. They have a stud CB who can limit Chase. Stud D Line that can limit the ground game and match up vs Cincy's porous OLine very well.
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The flip side is also true though. 

The Bengals arguably have a better secondary, and a D-Line that isn't too far behind the Rams. Considering the Rams rely on the pass heavily, this could be a recipe for the Bengals to have an advantage. 

The biggest advantage the Rams have, IMO, is the OL. Bengals OL isn't as stout as the Rams OL. And matched up against the Rams pass rush, the Bengals will have to get the ball out faster to keep Burrow vertical. 

The biggest advantage the Bengals have, IMO, is that they have a better secondary, and Stafford has shown a propensity to throw head-scratching interceptions. This isn't new, and going to the Rams clearly didn't fix this. He's had a relatively clean playoff run (thanks partly to Tartt dropping a gift that hit him in the numbers, which if he'd made we would all be talking about the 49ers instead of the Rams) but he also went through a several game stretch with a troubling trend of pick-6s. 

Given the team's respective advantages/disadvantages, I'd say this is game is likely to be close. It comes down to what adjustments the Bengals can make to their offense to keep Burrow clean, and whether Stafford can avoid making JimmyG-esque mistakes. 

The recent trend has been more passing than rushing in Super Bowls. So it might not matter which team is more stout against the run. That is TBD for this game, because we won't know until we see it. 

 
I should have bet this when Bengals were +4.5, I'm seeing +3.5 right now which still peaks my interest. 

Some props I'm eyeing:

Joe Burrow Over 276 yards passing

Joe Burrow Over 11.5 yards rushing

Cooper Kupp over 107.5 yards receiving

Jamar Chase over 80 yards receiving

Joe Mixon under 62.5 yards rushing

Samaje Perine over 13.5 receiving yards

Cam Akers most rushing yards +100

 
Timmay said:
I should have bet this when Bengals were +4.5, I'm seeing +3.5 right now which still peaks my interest. 

Some props I'm eyeing:

Joe Burrow Over 276 yards passing

Joe Burrow Over 11.5 yards rushing

Cooper Kupp over 107.5 yards receiving

Jamar Chase over 80 yards receiving

Joe Mixon under 62.5 yards rushing

Samaje Perine over 13.5 receiving yards

Cam Akers most rushing yards +100
Click to expand...
The Kupp prop opened at 103.5, so it seems to have moved. 

 
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Gonna ride the bengals wave of winnings with a little super bowl teaser.

Bengals +10.5 and under 55 (pays -114)

Not exactly a wong teaser for the points but it does take me past 7 and 10.

 
One prop I liked that I might throw a little on was Chase o3.5 yards rushing.

I also like the o1.5 FGs for both kickers.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Gonna ride the bengals wave of winnings with a little super bowl teaser.

Bengals +10.5 and under 55 (pays -114)

Not exactly a wong teaser for the points but it does take me past 7 and 10.
Click to expand...
That would be my bet too. I like matching underdogs with unders. The lower the score the better.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Gonna ride the bengals wave of winnings with a little super bowl teaser.

Bengals +10.5 and under 55 (pays -114)

Not exactly a wong teaser for the points but it does take me past 7 and 10.
Click to expand...
I jumped on that one after @Leroy Hoard suggested it last week. Too hard to resist the parlay since it’s basically even money, while getting an extra 6 on both sides. Mine was +10 & U 54 

 
jobarules said:
One prop I liked that I might throw a little on was Chase o3.5 yards rushing.

I also like the o1.5 FGs for both kickers.
Click to expand...
That one absolutely killed me last year. I had Succup at home with O1.

he had one in the bag, and when lined up for the bet-winner at the ~30 on 4th & 4, some idiot jumped offsides. 

The very next play was a Brady to (I think) Scotty Miller TD. 

Bucs didn’t have another FG try in the game. 
:wall:

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I believe ML is +170

Last week was a productive debate/discussion, so I figured I’d get it started again. 

Once again I’ll ask: is the +4 a gift from the gambling gods, or an Admiral Akbar (a trap)

A lot of hype about the Rams DL vs the Bengals OL, but I don’t see much about a very good Cinci defense that achieved something historic against the Chiefs: they shut out Mahomes for an entire half.

The Rams are good - they’re also banged up. They have 2 primary weapons in the receiving game & possibly no Higbee.

Cinci has more depth at WR & arguably a better running back stable (though Mixon hasn’t been great down the stretch & playoffs).
 

I don’t think I can pick Chase over Kupp, but then I don’t know if I can pick Kupp over Chase. I like Higgins more than OBJ, though the Rams use OBJ well. And it sounds like Uzomah is trending well towards playing, so let’s say both starting TEs are a wash. 

Super Bowls aren’t typically blowouts IIRC. I don’t see a blowout here either. 

The O/U is 48, and I like the game to be south of that, but others might have other opinions here.

Your thoughts? 
Click to expand...
I think the historical margin of victory or final score in SBs is something in the area of 38-17 and I think that hits here, Bengals winning it in a rout.  Rams are away team, at home. Bengals are unafraid  kids. That's dangerous. Stafford has made some bonehead plays in postseason, shouldn't be here if the SF defender holds onto that gift INT late, SF is playing this game. Burrow and the Bengals have beaten Chiefs 2x this season, Titans on road in postseason, among others. they're a stifling, unsung defense - truly a no name variety. We've seen L.A. be suspect against the run in postseason. Mixon should be a killer here. Will OBJ flake out again?

Will Donald revert to his dirty, cheap shot 'late QB hits' once things start to go the Bengals' way, kinda like he did to Brady? Rams have all the pressure in the world in this one, Bengals playing with house money. I don't see how the Rams can keep up in a shootout, and I don't see how they can get back in the game if the Bengals start hot and get out to a 10/13/14 pt lead. too many hot-head players on the Rams roster - Donald, Ramsey, OBJ -any one whom can cause a 15-yard penalty at any time.

Matt Stafford is a great story, Disney feel good coming of age tour de fource what ever silly names yoju want to put on it. but this game will become too big for him. last time I heard so many talking heads talk so glowingly about a SB team, the Giants beat the snot out of media darling  NE in 2007/8 SB.Physically whipped them up and down the field for 4 quarters,  then did it  again in 2011. Bengals are superior in this game. Lambs have McVay , a liability in big games like this. TB came back from the dead to tie it, late. TB had a brain fart and decided to blitz and not triple Kupp. just a silly error that cost them the game. I don't think Rams will be close in this game, NE crushed them a few years ago, McVay tends to choke ala Reid in big games. Bengals are going to crush the Lambs here. it's more likely to be an ugly lopsided blow out victory than it is the be a close fought, hand-2-hand combat dogfight scrap to the bitter end. history says 38-17 is the typical SB score. I do NOT see the Rams scoring 38 to the Bengals 17. nope.other way around. Rams sacked Brady 1x I believe, so the 9 sacks of Burrow v Tenn don't matter here. 

I really do believe that one of the cast off misfit cheap shot players on the Rams will have a critical penalty in this game that will costs LA dearly. I can't see Ramsey keeping it real for 4 quarters in the SB. Nor can I see self-centered ego-maniac Donald keeping himself penalty free. Or Obj. I just dont see it. 

 
Game script thoughts....

TBD whether the rams open a big first half lead...I suspect the game will be within 7 by halftime, leading to a Bengals victory.  If the Rams are up by 13 at the half, Rams win.

Whatever happens in the first half, I think both offenses will "eventually overwhelm" the defenses in the second half and the game will "devolve" into trading points in the second half, with the winner determined by halftime spread as above.

Halftime: Rams 13 Bengals 10

Final: Rams 30 Bengals 33

Bengals have the ball last and Joe Cool runs the ball in for a game winning rush TD with 11 seconds left.

 
The more I think about it the more I think I should have teased the over to make it over 42 to go along with Cincy +10.5.

That said, I'm still pretty confident in under 55.

 
Tanner9919 said:
I think the historical margin of victory or final score in SBs is something in the area of 38-17
Click to expand...


That used to be true. Most of the Super Bowls in the 80s and 90s were blowouts. Much less true since then, though. I think more than half of all SBs since 2000 have been one-score games.  

I like Bengals with the points and the under. 

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
That used to be true. Most of the Super Bowls in the 80s and 90s were blowouts. Much less true since then, though. I think more than half of all SBs since 2000 have been one-score games.  

I like Bengals with the points and the under. 
Click to expand...
I was just gonna say this. 

 
I'm not much of a prop bettor, but this one caught me eye at another site:

Van Jefferson : 17.5 yard longest reception - Over

Van is anything but a PPR king, but when he does catch them it's usually bombs away from Stafford. 💣

 
Moneyline players can get from +160 to +166 on Bengals right now.

I know they weren't expecting this lower seed matchup before the playoffs, but wasn't the AFC at one time the favorite this year?

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Moneyline players can get from +160 to +166 on Bengals right now.

I know they weren't expecting this lower seed matchup before the playoffs, but wasn't the AFC at one time the favorite this year?
Click to expand...
Yes.  When the bills and KC were still alive.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
I'm not much of a prop bettor, but this one caught me eye at another site:

Van Jefferson : 17.5 yard longest reception - Over

Van is anything but a PPR king, but when he does catch them it's usually bombs away from Stafford. 💣
Click to expand...
I bet over 31.5 ($20) if you told me he’d go 4/8 I’d be certain he went way over 31 yards. 

 
Always one leg too many on the same game parlays.  I had $40 on:  

Bengals +4.5  ✅

Under 49 pts total ✅

Kupp anytime TD ✅

Higgins anytime TD ✅

Stafford over 1.5 pass TD ✅

Burrow over 1.5 pass TD 😡    Stupid Mixon throwing TDs what the hell is that all about

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
I think the Higbee & Uzomah lines reflect their possible absence, since neither are practicing & we don't yet know if either will play. 

Here are the props I've bet so far: 

(Caesar's) 

  • Bengals to win, both Chase & Kupp score (+600)
  • Player to commit 1st turnover: Stafford +200  (he do be throwing him some Ints)
  • Mixon 1st TD for Bengals & Kupp 1st TD for Rams (+1600)
  • Stafford over 299.5 PaYd, Chase over 99.5 ReYd (+450)
  • Last scoring play of the game: Bengals FG (+400)
  • Distance of 1st  TD in the game: Over 8.5 yards (-115)
Not putting huge $ on any of the props (or my regular bets either for that matter) - just some fun little wagers to keep the game interesting. 
Click to expand...
As it turns out, my friend did not bet all of these. He couldn’t get action on the combos. So I didn’t get the Stafford/Chase bet, nor did I get the Mixon/Kupp bet.

I did get:

  • Distance of 1st  TD in the game: Over 8.5 yards ✅ 
  • Player to commit 1st turnover: Stafford ✅
  • 1st turnover Rams Stafford Int
  • 1st half under 23.5 ✅
  • Rams +4✅
  • Rams +4.5✅
  • parlay Rams +4.5 & U 48✅
  • teaser parlay Rams +10.5 & U54 ✅
It was a very good day. 

 
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