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2006 Steal of the Draft (1 Viewer)

Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)

TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.
You don't think the Steelers will get another goalline back?Interesting.

 
Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)

TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.
I love how Pitt did some screens at the end of the year for him. Something they got away from for awhile.Unless he gains 15 pounds, I don't see any way Parker is ever the goalline back (I'd see him adding 3rd down duties next year before adding goalline work). The guy is a pinball machine with how he runs. Parker would be scary good if he ever learned how to set up blocks then hit his 3rd gear.

 
Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)

TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.
What's your take on Haynes if it is just him and FWP?
 
Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)

TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.
I love how Pitt did some screens at the end of the year for him. Something they got away from for awhile.Unless he gains 15 pounds, I don't see any way Parker is ever the goalline back (I'd see him adding 3rd down duties next year before adding goalline work). The guy is a pinball machine with how he runs. Parker would be scary good if he ever learned how to set up blocks then hit his 3rd gear.
That would be part of development, to me. Seems like he still needs to learn to run...but he was so good this year without knowing how, imagine if he learns.
 
QB - Bledsoe - 6th best QB this year. Will be asked to do it again. Will be drafted near the bottom. Wait on your QB gang!RB - Dom Davis - With Bush being the talk, look for Dom's stock to plummet. So low in fact, I bet Bush is drafted HIGHER ON THE HYPE, but he'll find a way to outperform Bush and his ADP. Don't sleep on Dom.Willie Parker - With Bettis riding off to the sunset fresh off a super bowl victory, the reigns will be handed to Fast Willie. He'll do a good job too. Man he's fast. Jamal Lewis - Look for a BIG rebound from the big guy.WR - Mark Clayton - Really showed us something near the end of the season.Nate Burleson - Too good to be held back by 1 bad year.Drew Bennett - The kid when healthy is a player.. Mcnair just loves his damn tight ends too much. With McNair gone, Look for a big rebound.Mark Bradley - I know, a Bear WR as a sleeper? By definition, he'll outperform his ADP by a couple of rounds. The injury prevented him from taking over the #2 spot. With him, the Bears would have advanced. Don't sleep on Bradley.TE - Kellen Winslow - Can be top 3. Will be drafted much lower.

 
I seem to agree with Levin about steals vs. values but since others have drawn a cloudy line I'll mix and match the values with the steals:

Derrick Mason. Why? On a piss poor Ravens team last season, Mason ranked #16 in the league in yardage. He was #7 in receptions. People seem to be naming Boller and Clayton as the chic picks but we generally agree td's are hard to predict from year to year. So how can a guy who grabbed the second fewest touchdowns of the top thirty receivers do worse? He scored 3 all of last year. I see nothing but (relative) upside.

Deion Branch. 998 yards and 5 td's, despite missing time to injuries. Still managed to finish in the top twenty for receptions. In case you hadn't noticed, Tom Brady led the league in passing yards. Let's face it-Dillon isn't going to build a time machine between now and the start of next season.

Brandon Lloyd. The guy was a good #3 receiver until Alex Smith took over. If Smith doesn't turn out to be the bust he appears, Lloyd might be decent.

Lee Evans. He's been mentioned already, so I won't say much other than Losman = lock on. Joey Harrington part deux.

Kevan Barlow. Is he a leader? No. Does he have "heart"? Doesn't look that way. Some posters here seem to think he'll be cut and never given a second chance elsewhere. I'm hoping he's cut and given a job somewhere possibly condusive to rb's...Arizona? People claim Denny would never run and their o-line is terrible but the suck factor of Shipp and Arrington are making people forget Emmitt running for close to 1000 yards and snagging NINE touchdowns. The Grimace has said they didn't run the ball enough this past season...

Frank Gore. Somebody has to run the ball for the Niners, I can't imagine it'll still be Kevan. Ran for nearly 5 yards a carry and now Norv Turner is the offensive coordinator.

Of course there's always the perennial values:

Rod Smith

Eddie Kennison

Warrick Dunn

***To those who get points for kickoff/punt returns-keep an eye on Wes Welker. He cracked the Dolphins starting lineup last year and finished top twenty in those type leagues.

 
Deion Branch. 998 yards and 5 td's, despite missing time to injuries. Still managed to finish in the top twenty for receptions. In case you hadn't noticed, Tom Brady led the league in passing yards. Let's face it-Dillon isn't going to build a time machine between now and the start of next season.
I'm not sure I agree to this one. The Pats spread the ball out like crazy. While Branch seems to come up big some weeks, he disappears. I think people get misty eyed over his post-season numbers. He's had four 100 yard receiving games in 8 playoff games. But he's only had four 100 yard receiving games in 53 regular season games (one each year).
 
The topic says it all. Who will be the steal of the draft in 2006, and most importantly, why? For purposes of this thread, I'm defining a steal as someone who will finish at least three rounds *ahead* of their draft spot.
How can there be more than one "the steal"s? ;) I'll lend my support to a few more potential "steals"

16. Zach Hilton, TE, NO

19. Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago

26. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh

32. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco

34. Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville

42. Reggie Brown, WR, Philidelphia (
 
Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
 
The topic says it all. Who will be the steal of the draft in 2006, and most importantly, why? For purposes of this thread, I'm defining a steal as someone who will finish at least three rounds *ahead* of their draft spot.
How can there be more than one "the steal"s? ;)
Shaddup. :)
 
Deion Branch. 998 yards and 5 td's, despite missing time to injuries. Still managed to finish in the top twenty for receptions. In case you hadn't noticed, Tom Brady led the league in passing yards. Let's face it-Dillon isn't going to build a time machine between now and the start of next season.
I'm not sure I agree to this one. The Pats spread the ball out like crazy. While Branch seems to come up big some weeks, he disappears. I think people get misty eyed over his post-season numbers. He's had four 100 yard receiving games in 8 playoff games. But he's only had four 100 yard receiving games in 53 regular season games (one each year).
:goodposting:
 
Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)

TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.
What's your take on Haynes if it is just him and FWP?
I sure hope that Veron Haynes isn't going to be the #2 back next year if Bettis retires..nor do I hope its Staley...I am hoping Willie Parker is either #1 or #2 or they get someone else to be #1 or #2 if Bettis retires.Heres where my mind is for the outcomes I would feel fine with

1.

#1 Willie Parker

#2 Bettis/Haynes

If Bettis Retires:

2.

#1 Someone new

#2 Willie Parker/Veron Haynes

3.

#1 Willie Parker

#2 Someone new/Veron Haynes

I will be fine with any of those outcomes but I don't like Veron Haynes being #2 only and I hope Staley is not on the team next year.

 
Deion Branch.  998 yards and 5 td's, despite missing time to injuries.  Still managed to finish in the top twenty for receptions.  In case you hadn't noticed, Tom Brady led the league in passing yards.  Let's face it-Dillon isn't going to build a time machine between now and the start of next season.
I'm not sure I agree to this one. The Pats spread the ball out like crazy. While Branch seems to come up big some weeks, he disappears. I think people get misty eyed over his post-season numbers. He's had four 100 yard receiving games in 8 playoff games. But he's only had four 100 yard receiving games in 53 regular season games (one each year).
:goodposting:
I would agree with this post. I love Branch and his ability, but that offense spreads it around way too much. Branch is a great flex player because of his propensity to blow up, but I wouldn't want to depend on him every week. It's almost impossible to tell who is going to have a big game in one week vs the next with the Pats.
 
Ben WatsonAshley LelieDarrell Jackson (moves near the top 5 for WR)Chester TaylorReggie BrownRoddy White (someone has to step up other then Crumpler)Ben Troupe

 
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Deion Branch. 998 yards and 5 td's, despite missing time to injuries. Still managed to finish in the top twenty for receptions. In case you hadn't noticed, Tom Brady led the league in passing yards. Let's face it-Dillon isn't going to build a time machine between now and the start of next season.
I'm not sure I agree to this one. The Pats spread the ball out like crazy. While Branch seems to come up big some weeks, he disappears. I think people get misty eyed over his post-season numbers. He's had four 100 yard receiving games in 8 playoff games. But he's only had four 100 yard receiving games in 53 regular season games (one each year).
:goodposting:
I would agree with this post. I love Branch and his ability, but that offense spreads it around way too much. Branch is a great flex player because of his propensity to blow up, but I wouldn't want to depend on him every week. It's almost impossible to tell who is going to have a big game in one week vs the next with the Pats.
That, plus I expect a dropoff from the Patriots' passing game next year. The defense was awful for most of the year, causing Brady to have to throw every other play. I don't think that happens next year.
 
First post updated...you guys might want to start supporting nominees in order to move them up if you want...
Why would I want my guy to move up? If he does, he will no longer be the "steal of the draft." ;)
 
1. There can be many steals, but just ONE steal of the draft (SOD).2. To me, a steal is someone who is drafted as a backup on your FF roster but ends ups with starter stats.3. The SOD is the steal with biggest differential between where he was drafted and his final FF rank for his position. 4. Value is picking someone up one roster position lower than he performs. If you draft a WR as your WR2 and performs like a WR1, that is value.

 
Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
:thumbup:

Plenty of 1st-round picks have sat behind incumbents for a couple years

 
1. There can be many steals, but just ONE steal of the draft (SOD).

2. To me, a steal is someone who is drafted as a backup on your FF roster but ends ups with starter stats.

3. The SOD is the steal with biggest differential between where he was drafted and his final FF rank for his position.

4. Value is picking someone up one roster position lower than he performs. If you draft a WR as your WR2 and performs like a WR1, that is value.
1. Yup. We're getting nominations for it.2. That's fine. We all have our opinions. What constitutes SOD has been debated back and forth several times. :)

3. I don't agree, because I'd rather have a 7th round pick that acted like a 1st round pick than a 33rd round pick who acted like a 23rd round pick.

4. See #2.

 
I haven't seen FWP nominated. Fine, the Bus retires. Big Ben will start throwing the ball more. But a team that runs nearly 80% of the time is suddenly going to turn into the pass happy Colts? Cowher will still be the coach so they'll still run the ball early and often. Right now I see no reason Parker shouldn't benefit the most.

 
Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
:thumbup: Plenty of 1st-round picks have sat behind incumbents for a couple years
Have many RBs, though?
Not many 1st round picks sit around, as far as I can remember. LJ sat for one year, then Preist got injured the next year and we all know what happened this year. Alexander sat for one year, then took over the next year after Ricky Watters got injured. McCallister sat for one year behind Ricky Williams, and then took over after Ricky got traded. I don't think there's a lot of evidence of 1st round backs sitting for a couple of years. Benson will probably take over sooner rather than later.

 
Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
:thumbup: Plenty of 1st-round picks have sat behind incumbents for a couple years
Have many RBs, though?
Not many 1st round picks sit around, as far as I can remember. LJ sat for one year, then Preist got injured the next year and we all know what happened this year. Alexander sat for one year, then took over the next year after Ricky Watters got injured. McCallister sat for one year behind Ricky Williams, and then took over after Ricky got traded. I don't think there's a lot of evidence of 1st round backs sitting for a couple of years. Benson will probably take over sooner rather than later.
I didn't think so, especially since the learning curve for RBs is so much lower than the learning curve for other positions.
 
I haven't seen FWP nominated. Fine, the Bus retires. Big Ben will start throwing the ball more. But a team that runs nearly 80% of the time is suddenly going to turn into the pass happy Colts? Cowher will still be the coach so they'll still run the ball early and often. Right now I see no reason Parker shouldn't benefit the most.
If he drops to the 4th round or lower, it'll be a mistake.
 
Drew Bennett, WR, TennesseeInjuries really took a toll on Tennessee this year, Bennett included. At least one of Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, or Tyrone Calico will emerge to take some of the pressure off Bennett and allow him to return to 2004 form.

 
Does Perry not count? I understand he was injured his rookie year, but last year he was a backup to Rudi.

Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
:thumbup: Plenty of 1st-round picks have sat behind incumbents for a couple years
Have many RBs, though?
Not many 1st round picks sit around, as far as I can remember. LJ sat for one year, then Preist got injured the next year and we all know what happened this year. Alexander sat for one year, then took over the next year after Ricky Watters got injured. McCallister sat for one year behind Ricky Williams, and then took over after Ricky got traded. I don't think there's a lot of evidence of 1st round backs sitting for a couple of years. Benson will probably take over sooner rather than later.
 
First post updated...I'm only putting up nominations/support if you nominate one or two...otherwise, it gets flooded with one person's opinion shooting people up. :shrug:Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.

 
someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick.
If Billy Volek ends up being the starter for the Titans in 2006 then you almost have to bump Bennett up from wherever you have him now. They were lightning it up in the later portion of the 2004 season.
 
someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick.
If Billy Volek ends up being the starter for the Titans in 2006 then you almost have to bump Bennett up from wherever you have him now. They were lightning it up in the later portion of the 2004 season.
See, I'll agree with that. I don't think you bump him up to top 15, but he gets bumped up from where he is now.But I don't see Tennessee starting Volek next year. It's either McNair, or whatever rookie QB they draft.

 
Does Perry not count? I understand he was injured his rookie year, but last year he was a backup to Rudi.

Thomas Jones - the talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time.
I agree 100 percent. Cedric Benson isn't automatic just because he was a 1st rounder.
:thumbup: Plenty of 1st-round picks have sat behind incumbents for a couple years
Have many RBs, though?
Not many 1st round picks sit around, as far as I can remember. LJ sat for one year, then Preist got injured the next year and we all know what happened this year. Alexander sat for one year, then took over the next year after Ricky Watters got injured. McCallister sat for one year behind Ricky Williams, and then took over after Ricky got traded. I don't think there's a lot of evidence of 1st round backs sitting for a couple of years. Benson will probably take over sooner rather than later.
I guess Perry would count too, but it seemed at the time like a strange 1st round pick by the Bengals since they had Rudi. Perry kinda screwed himself by being injured all year though. He probably had a decent chance last year for at least splitting carries this year if he wasn't injured. Most likely Perry could get a chance here if Rudi gets injured (although Rudi hasn't gotten injured at all so far).
 
Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
We're defining a steal as someone who will have value three rounds above where they will be picked, right? Drew Bennett is going to be low on people's radars next year. Probably a 13th-14th round pick. Titans have too much talent and are too well-coached to be this bad again next year. If the Titans can get healthy this off-season, they'll be back.
 
Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
We're defining a steal as someone who will have value three rounds above where they will be picked, right? Drew Bennett is going to be low on people's radars next year. Probably a 13th-14th round pick. Titans have too much talent and are too well-coached to be this bad again next year. If the Titans can get healthy this off-season, they'll be back.
Depends on the "definition of the day".
My loose definition of a steal (which is coming off the top of my head here) is defined by the ratio of his draft slot (where I get him) to where his performance slots (not his ADP, but where his performance ranks).

First cut at this would be that a steal would be a "2", i.e.

STEAL = DRAFT SLOT / PERFORMANCE SLOT >= 2.

Therefore getting someone at 3.01 who performs as a 1.12 is a "steal". So is someone who is drafted in Round 6 who performs like a 3rd rounder. Steals get a little harder in the double-digit rounds, but someone in the 20th that performs like a spot starter / 9th/10th rounder counts too.

See if that fits everyone's interpretations....
That's pretty much dead on, I think.
So if you pick up Bennett in Round 13 or 14 and he performs like your WR2 / flex as would a typical Round 7 guy, then I'd vote him for SOD.
 
First post updated...I'm only putting up nominations/support if you nominate one or two...otherwise, it gets flooded with one person's opinion shooting people up. :shrug:

Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
:ph34r: Is this the same Drew Bennett you wanted a first rounder for? :shock:
 
First post updated...I'm only putting up nominations/support if you nominate one or two...otherwise, it gets flooded with one person's opinion shooting people up. :shrug:

Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
:ph34r: Is this the same Drew Bennett you wanted a first rounder for? :shock:
Heh, yep.I don't value draft picks the way others do. Your team was going to be in the bottom half that year, and I value that like a 9th-11th round overall pick.

 
First post updated...I'm only putting up nominations/support if you nominate one or two...otherwise, it gets flooded with one person's opinion shooting people up.  :shrug:

Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick.  I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
:ph34r: Is this the same Drew Bennett you wanted a first rounder for? :shock:
Heh, yep.I don't value draft picks the way others do. Your team was going to be in the bottom half that year, and I value that like a 9th-11th round overall pick.
:o it was this week
 
First post updated...I'm only putting up nominations/support if you nominate one or two...otherwise, it gets flooded with one person's opinion shooting people up. :shrug:

Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick. I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
:ph34r: Is this the same Drew Bennett you wanted a first rounder for? :shock:
Heh, yep.I don't value draft picks the way others do. Your team was going to be in the bottom half that year, and I value that like a 9th-11th round overall pick.
:o it was this week
No, no...you're misunderstanding me.I estimated your 1st round pick in 2007 to be somewhere in the 1.09-1.11 range.

To me, that's equal to a 9th-11th round overall dynasty pick. I think Bennett falls there. That's why I made the offer.

 
Mr. Eric Moulds

will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag.
I was just looking up some players for WSL, and this jumped out at me:Eric Moulds

games 1-11: 54/510/3, or an average of about 5/46/0.3 per game

game 12: blew up at coach

game 13: benched

games 14-16: 27/306/1, or an average of 9/102/0.3 per game

What does this mean? Which was the aberration, his early season performance or his last-minute resurrection?

If it's the former, he could be poised for a huge comeback in the right situation.

 
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Mr. Eric Moulds

will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag.
I was just looking up some players for WSL, and this jumped out at me:Eric Moulds

games 1-11: 54/510/3, or an average of about 5/46/0.3 per game

game 12: blew up at coach

game 13: benched

games 14-16: 27/306/1, or an average of 9/102/0.3 per game

What does this mean? Which was the aberration, his early season performance or his last-minute resurrection?

If it's the former, he could be poised for a huge comeback in the right situation.
I'd like to see the splits based on starting QB. That seemed to be the determining factor, IIRC.
 
I'm going to agree with Andre Johnson.Kubiak will emphasize the downfield passing game and Johnson will be a prodcutive player once again.

 
Eric Moulds

games 1-11: 54/510/3, or an average of about 5/46/0.3 per game

game 12: blew up at coach

game 13: benched

games 14-16: 27/306/1, or an average of 9/102/0.3 per game

What does this mean? Which was the aberration, his early season performance or his last-minute resurrection?

If it's the former, he could be poised for a huge comeback in the right situation.
I'd like to see the splits based on starting QB. That seemed to be the determining factor, IIRC.
Good call.9 games with Losman (including when he came in for an injured Holcomb):

7 games, 27 rec, 226 yds, 0 TD

+1 blowup with coach

+1 benching

7 games with Holcomb:

7 games, 54 rec, 588 yds, 4 TD

The seven Holcomb games project to 123 rec, 1344 yds, 9 TDs!!

 
Eric Moulds

games 1-11: 54/510/3, or an average of about 5/46/0.3 per game

game 12: blew up at coach

game 13: benched

games 14-16: 27/306/1, or an average of 9/102/0.3 per game

What does this mean? Which was the aberration, his early season performance or his last-minute resurrection?

If it's the former, he could be poised for a huge comeback in the right situation.
I'd like to see the splits based on starting QB. That seemed to be the determining factor, IIRC.
Good call.9 games with Losman (including when he came in for an injured Holcomb):

7 games, 27 rec, 226 yds, 0 TD

+1 blowup with coach

+1 benching

7 games with Holcomb:

7 games, 54 rec, 588 yds, 4 TD

The seven Holcomb games project to 123 rec, 1344 yds, 9 TDs!!
Thank you for doing this.I think that raises a huge point in the Moulds debate. He could be fantastic with Holcomb at QB.

 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
Just kidding. :mellow:
 
Anyway, someone's going to have to convince me on the Drew Bennett pick.  I just didn't see anything out of him this year pre-injury, so I don't see what I can expect out of him this year.
We're defining a steal as someone who will have value three rounds above where they will be picked, right? Drew Bennett is going to be low on people's radars next year. Probably a 13th-14th round pick. Titans have too much talent and are too well-coached to be this bad again next year. If the Titans can get healthy this off-season, they'll be back.
Bennett was taken in the 45th pick overall range in my redraft leagues this year. I can't see him falling to the 13th or 14th round.And I don't see him being much of a steal based on where he'll be drafted, as the hype on Bennett pretty much stems from an insane 3-game stretch in 2004, and he's been fairly ordinary before and after that time.

 
Cedric Houston ( Jets )They will give him a shot at starting and he will make the most out of it.He did look good when he played this season even if they had no QB.

 
Well, I don' think he's been mentioned yet and I am positive he will go undrafted in all but the absolute LARGEST of leagues (in adition i just want to be different) and that man is TODD PINKSTON. I think if he wasn't injured in preseason he would have greatly helped reduce the blow of losing TO and with him gone his numbers should increase. I think 700 yrds and 5 TD's is a possible output because oponents will sleep on him early in the year and focus on westbrook. Plus most leagues you don't lose points for droped passes :P

 
Cedric Houston ( Jets )

They will give him a shot at starting and he will make the most out of it.

He did look good when he played this season even if they had no QB.
I think they draft RB in the second round given the depth at the position in this years draft :praysforCalhoun:
 

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