Keys Myaths
Pokerguy
The topic says it all. Who will be the steal of the draft in 2006, and most importantly, why? For purposes of this thread, I'm defining a steal as someone who will finish at least three rounds *ahead* of their draft spot.
I'll edit this first post as we go...in order of most nominations plus supporting posters.
The summary of all those nominated below, with nominating and supporting posters in parentheses:
1. Drew Carter, WR, Carolina (RoarinSonoran, Keys Myaths, jeff_eaglz, -OZ-): Could be the #2 in Carolina...and we all know how good #1s are in Carolina. Now, watch the little Steve Smith get injured again. A risk, but high, high reward late in the draft.
2. Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee (Mister CIA, Bloom, -OZ-, On The Rocks): "Speaking of TEs and guys named Ben ... both of them."
3. Ben Watson, TE, NE (Mister CIA, Keys Myaths, Bloom): "Speaking of TEs and guys named Ben ... both of them."
4. Darrell Jackson (cstu, Mad Sweeney, -OZ-): "He will slide out of the top 20 because of his injury. He will stay healthy and get 10+ TD's."
5. Rod Smith, WR, Denver (iSnitch, Marc Levin, msommer): "Will finish borderline top twenty yet again-while being drafted much later. Every year critics say "This is the year his age will catch up with him!" And every year they've been wrong."
6. Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville (cstu, Finatic): "Showed signs of breaking out this year, but his broken ankle will keep his value down next year. Solid receiving core with the ageless Jimmy Smith and young guys Jones, Wilford and Williams."
7. Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota (Finatic, Rounders): "New HC Childress will actually allow him to play more than Mike Tice ever did.He will flourish in the WCO and become the Midwest version of Brian Westbrook"
8. David Givens, WR, New England (wannabee, Bloom): "I see his ppg average is higher than most would think. Health is his only issue. But, he will probably sign elsewhere as a free agent. But, because of his health issues, he will be undervalued."
9. Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh (Steel Dillo, Bloom): "Heath Miller will be a top 3 TE if Ben stays healthy."
10. Ernest Wilford, WR, Jacksonville (Patoons, rockbottom895): "Took over the #2 spot halfway through the season and just started coming on nicely. Had great chemistry will Lefty before he broke his ankle. Still finished around top 30 with 700/ 7 TDs. Great size and great red zone target ability has sleeper written all over him. Could be a stereotypical "3rd year breakout". I'm seeing somewhere like 1200/8."
11. Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay (Bears_Man2, -OZ-): I don't see how you can look go from looking like an All-Pro as a rookie and looking like a man amongst boys to a nobody in one year. He's admitted he was out of shape after knee surgery and probably helped contribute to his other nagging injuries along the way. I don't really like hearing him making excuses that he's out of shape at 23 years old, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt & hope his injuries were more serious than we were led to believe. Looking for a return to 1000 yard form in his 3rd year.
12. Donald Driver, WR, GB (Marc Levin, msommer): "For the 4th year in a row."
13. Alex Smith, TE, Tampa Bay (Floyd the Barber, msommer): "Had a highly productive rookie year, came on down the stretch and developed a nice chemistry with Chris Simms - amazing for a rookie when you consider the complexity of Jon Gruden's offense. A full off-season as the starters and getting all of Gruden's attentions will no doubt elevate both.:
14. Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay (-OZ-, msommer): "His days of being a top 10 RB are probably over, but he'll start somewhere and is currently being treated as a complete has-been."
15. Onterrio Smith, RB, Minnesota (Bledsoe to Moulds, Knowledge Reigns Supreme): "The eternal steal of the draft." Will he be forgotten in a lot of formats?
16. Zach Hilton, TE, NO (jeff_eaglz, David Yudkin, wannabee): "He has solid hands and is a HUGE target at 6'8". If used correctly he could be a Top 10 TE next season, ESPECIALLY if a WCO HC comes in to NO next year. The dropoff of Joe Horn would tend to lend itself to support this theory that the TE could be the #2 option next season - if Stallworth is ready for the #1 role for the 2006 campaign."
17. Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit (zamboni, LHUCKS): "Things could have hardly been much worse on the offensive side of the ball this past year, so there is plenty of room for improvement with better QB play and perhaps FINALLY the emergence of their highly drafted WRs (excluding Rogers, who is probably gone)."
18. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston (softball, Workhorse): "He came on like a hurricane to end things. But FF'rs have long memories for getting burned bad. And he burned alot of people. I say he goes in late 4th early 5th and is worth a number 2."
19. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh (SaosiN, iSnitch): "TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable."
20. Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore (Bloom, jurb26): "I expect Baltimore to franchise him and get a solid vet QB. he won't have spent most of the offseason in jail, and the ankle will feel better. I think they still make him the centerpiece of the running game, and he returns to the top 10-15 RBs."
21. Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago (cstu): "The talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time."
22. Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee (The Readbeard): "McNair threw for 3100 yds and 16 TD (Volek added 4), so lets say that the Titans draft Young, Volek goes bye-bye for a 3rd round pick, McNair has a Kitna-esque last hurrah as The Mentor and his owners ride his 3,600yds and 24 TDs to the championship a la 2003."
23. Javon Walker, WR, GB (Marc Levin): "Coming back with a bombtrack."
24. Randy Moss, WR, Oakland (Marc Levin): "Both Oakland receivers (Moss/Porter) should also be available for the best value either have had in quite a while."
25. Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland (Marc Levin): "Both Oakland receivers (Moss/Porter) should also be available for the best value either have had in quite a while."
26. Eric Moulds, WR, ??? (Marc Levin): "Will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag."
27. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona (Boulder Toads): "His WRs will both be drafted in the first 4 rounds but this guy might be available in rounds 7-10 after everyone has already drafted their QB. I think the Cards put something together in 2006 & the passing game only benefits..."
28. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh (FUBAR): "The Bus retires, leaving more of the burden on Ben who rises to the challenge."
29. Michael Vick, QB, Atlanta (The Real Deal): "Came on strong in the 2nd half. Still young and most people have given up on him. It usually takes a QB much longer to "break out". Will finally put it together for a full season next year and likely won't be drafted in top 10."
30. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle (The Real Deal): "Will have DJax, Engram, JJ healthy all of next year. Also, with SA coming off a career year and likely see falloff in TDs next year and Hass will throw for more. Hass may end up in top 5 next year and will be borderline top 10 next year."
31. Eric Shelton, RB, Carolina (jeff_eaglz): "2nd round draft pick last season by Carolina out of Louisville. 6'3" and 245. He was hurt all year in Carolina and was viewed as the possible challenger to Foster last August / September before breaking his foot. Next season the focus for Carolina will be the rehab of both Foster and Davis (assuming both are back - do not know contract status). With that in mind, Shelton will be more under the radar. Better for us."
32. Brandon Lloyd, WR, San Francisco (modus): "SF will straighten out their offense next season and while they won't have huge passing yards, they really only have one target."
33. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco (Otis): "His ability is widely overlooked. He is 3x the back that Kevan Barlow is, and will have the chance to unseat him. I also think the situation there improves vastly next year (it still won't be a powerhouse, but it will be a big step up). He'll perform admirably as an RB2, and RB steals are usually the most valuable in the draft, so he'll be well worth his ADP."
34. Ricky Williams, RB, Miami (Slinger): "Nobody wants to pay too much for him. He may end up on another team and in a better situation. Even if he stays with Miami, he'll be the best backup RB in the league. He'll be very productive in relations to where he'll be drafted."
35. Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville (dslaw): "Still learning the WR position and will have a healthy Leftwich."
36. Samie Parker, WR, Kansas City (slimflop): "Could take over for Kennison as #1 WR. I doubt he sets the league on fire but has some sleeper potential."
37. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York (Patoons): "I don't believe the Jets are happy with McCareins performance. He drops a lot of balls over the middle. Cotchery started to come on when given the opportunity late in the year. I think it may be an open battle for the #2. I don't believe he will be drafted, so maybe he's more of a flyer."
38. Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago (Colin Dowling): "Unlikely to go in the top-4 rounds, but he should have a shot to finish in the top-20 RBs. I know nothing will be resolved right now since there is no camp battle yet, but going in to next season, I suspect that Jones is going tohave to beat him out flat in training camp. Even if they end up in RBBC, he'll offer great value."
39. Chris Henry, WR, Cincy (Kirby): "They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped. 31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action."
40. David Carr, QB, Houston (einstein2u): "He has the tools, if Plummer can be a pro bowler, so can Carr."
41. Plaxico Burress, WR, New York (Verbal Kint): "He and Eli started to gel at times this year and their chemistry will only be better next year as Eli continues to progress. Manning has the arm for a good deep ball, which plays to his talents better than Hasselbeck did. He seems to have gotten past the dropsies he had in Seattle. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight."
42. Reggie Brown, WR, Philidelphia (loqutis): "Without TO standing in front of him crying for the ball, and another year under his belt he could put up solid numbers"
43. Najeh Davenport, RB, GB (loqutis): "He'll be the starter if Green doesn't sign. Slowly accumulating carries over the last couple of years and about to bust out before he broke a bone. I had a ton of excuses for Ahman Green when the GB running game was inept. turns out all they needed to do was plug in Najeh. In his first start of the season he ran for 54 yards on 12 carries (4.5 ypc) and 2 TDs. He's an UFA so if he doesn't sign with GB he may land somewhere else."
44. T.J. Duckett, RB, Atlanta (Two Deep): "If he was to be the featured back or even a goal line back, lets say in a place like Philly or Minny I could see him putting up some good numbers. Hell he got 8tds this year and they weren't consistent with his use."
46. Drew Bennett, WR, Tennessee (Don Quixote): "Injuries really took a toll on Tennessee this year, Bennett included. At least one of Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, or Tyrone Calico will emerge to take some of the pressure off Bennett and allow him to return to 2004 form."
I'll edit this first post as we go...in order of most nominations plus supporting posters.
The summary of all those nominated below, with nominating and supporting posters in parentheses:
1. Drew Carter, WR, Carolina (RoarinSonoran, Keys Myaths, jeff_eaglz, -OZ-): Could be the #2 in Carolina...and we all know how good #1s are in Carolina. Now, watch the little Steve Smith get injured again. A risk, but high, high reward late in the draft.
2. Ben Troupe, TE, Tennessee (Mister CIA, Bloom, -OZ-, On The Rocks): "Speaking of TEs and guys named Ben ... both of them."
3. Ben Watson, TE, NE (Mister CIA, Keys Myaths, Bloom): "Speaking of TEs and guys named Ben ... both of them."
4. Darrell Jackson (cstu, Mad Sweeney, -OZ-): "He will slide out of the top 20 because of his injury. He will stay healthy and get 10+ TD's."
5. Rod Smith, WR, Denver (iSnitch, Marc Levin, msommer): "Will finish borderline top twenty yet again-while being drafted much later. Every year critics say "This is the year his age will catch up with him!" And every year they've been wrong."
6. Byron Leftwich, QB, Jacksonville (cstu, Finatic): "Showed signs of breaking out this year, but his broken ankle will keep his value down next year. Solid receiving core with the ageless Jimmy Smith and young guys Jones, Wilford and Williams."
7. Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota (Finatic, Rounders): "New HC Childress will actually allow him to play more than Mike Tice ever did.He will flourish in the WCO and become the Midwest version of Brian Westbrook"
8. David Givens, WR, New England (wannabee, Bloom): "I see his ppg average is higher than most would think. Health is his only issue. But, he will probably sign elsewhere as a free agent. But, because of his health issues, he will be undervalued."
9. Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh (Steel Dillo, Bloom): "Heath Miller will be a top 3 TE if Ben stays healthy."
10. Ernest Wilford, WR, Jacksonville (Patoons, rockbottom895): "Took over the #2 spot halfway through the season and just started coming on nicely. Had great chemistry will Lefty before he broke his ankle. Still finished around top 30 with 700/ 7 TDs. Great size and great red zone target ability has sleeper written all over him. Could be a stereotypical "3rd year breakout". I'm seeing somewhere like 1200/8."
11. Michael Clayton, WR, Tampa Bay (Bears_Man2, -OZ-): I don't see how you can look go from looking like an All-Pro as a rookie and looking like a man amongst boys to a nobody in one year. He's admitted he was out of shape after knee surgery and probably helped contribute to his other nagging injuries along the way. I don't really like hearing him making excuses that he's out of shape at 23 years old, but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt & hope his injuries were more serious than we were led to believe. Looking for a return to 1000 yard form in his 3rd year.
12. Donald Driver, WR, GB (Marc Levin, msommer): "For the 4th year in a row."
13. Alex Smith, TE, Tampa Bay (Floyd the Barber, msommer): "Had a highly productive rookie year, came on down the stretch and developed a nice chemistry with Chris Simms - amazing for a rookie when you consider the complexity of Jon Gruden's offense. A full off-season as the starters and getting all of Gruden's attentions will no doubt elevate both.:
14. Ahman Green, RB, Green Bay (-OZ-, msommer): "His days of being a top 10 RB are probably over, but he'll start somewhere and is currently being treated as a complete has-been."
15. Onterrio Smith, RB, Minnesota (Bledsoe to Moulds, Knowledge Reigns Supreme): "The eternal steal of the draft." Will he be forgotten in a lot of formats?
16. Zach Hilton, TE, NO (jeff_eaglz, David Yudkin, wannabee): "He has solid hands and is a HUGE target at 6'8". If used correctly he could be a Top 10 TE next season, ESPECIALLY if a WCO HC comes in to NO next year. The dropoff of Joe Horn would tend to lend itself to support this theory that the TE could be the #2 option next season - if Stallworth is ready for the #1 role for the 2006 campaign."
17. Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit (zamboni, LHUCKS): "Things could have hardly been much worse on the offensive side of the ball this past year, so there is plenty of room for improvement with better QB play and perhaps FINALLY the emergence of their highly drafted WRs (excluding Rogers, who is probably gone)."
18. Andre Johnson, WR, Houston (softball, Workhorse): "He came on like a hurricane to end things. But FF'rs have long memories for getting burned bad. And he burned alot of people. I say he goes in late 4th early 5th and is worth a number 2."
19. Willie Parker, RB, Pittsburgh (SaosiN, iSnitch): "TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable."
20. Jamal Lewis, RB, Baltimore (Bloom, jurb26): "I expect Baltimore to franchise him and get a solid vet QB. he won't have spent most of the offseason in jail, and the ankle will feel better. I think they still make him the centerpiece of the running game, and he returns to the top 10-15 RBs."
21. Thomas Jones, RB, Chicago (cstu): "The talk is going to be all about Cedric Benson, but Jones has proved that he can get it done and Benson will have to earn playing time."
22. Steve McNair, QB, Tennessee (The Readbeard): "McNair threw for 3100 yds and 16 TD (Volek added 4), so lets say that the Titans draft Young, Volek goes bye-bye for a 3rd round pick, McNair has a Kitna-esque last hurrah as The Mentor and his owners ride his 3,600yds and 24 TDs to the championship a la 2003."
23. Javon Walker, WR, GB (Marc Levin): "Coming back with a bombtrack."
24. Randy Moss, WR, Oakland (Marc Levin): "Both Oakland receivers (Moss/Porter) should also be available for the best value either have had in quite a while."
25. Jerry Porter, WR, Oakland (Marc Levin): "Both Oakland receivers (Moss/Porter) should also be available for the best value either have had in quite a while."
26. Eric Moulds, WR, ??? (Marc Levin): "Will be the 2006 steal of the draft - new life ala Keenan McCardell or Keyshawn Johnson for one last hurrah year of top-20 performance with a below 40 price tag."
27. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona (Boulder Toads): "His WRs will both be drafted in the first 4 rounds but this guy might be available in rounds 7-10 after everyone has already drafted their QB. I think the Cards put something together in 2006 & the passing game only benefits..."
28. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh (FUBAR): "The Bus retires, leaving more of the burden on Ben who rises to the challenge."
29. Michael Vick, QB, Atlanta (The Real Deal): "Came on strong in the 2nd half. Still young and most people have given up on him. It usually takes a QB much longer to "break out". Will finally put it together for a full season next year and likely won't be drafted in top 10."
30. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle (The Real Deal): "Will have DJax, Engram, JJ healthy all of next year. Also, with SA coming off a career year and likely see falloff in TDs next year and Hass will throw for more. Hass may end up in top 5 next year and will be borderline top 10 next year."
31. Eric Shelton, RB, Carolina (jeff_eaglz): "2nd round draft pick last season by Carolina out of Louisville. 6'3" and 245. He was hurt all year in Carolina and was viewed as the possible challenger to Foster last August / September before breaking his foot. Next season the focus for Carolina will be the rehab of both Foster and Davis (assuming both are back - do not know contract status). With that in mind, Shelton will be more under the radar. Better for us."
32. Brandon Lloyd, WR, San Francisco (modus): "SF will straighten out their offense next season and while they won't have huge passing yards, they really only have one target."
33. Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco (Otis): "His ability is widely overlooked. He is 3x the back that Kevan Barlow is, and will have the chance to unseat him. I also think the situation there improves vastly next year (it still won't be a powerhouse, but it will be a big step up). He'll perform admirably as an RB2, and RB steals are usually the most valuable in the draft, so he'll be well worth his ADP."
34. Ricky Williams, RB, Miami (Slinger): "Nobody wants to pay too much for him. He may end up on another team and in a better situation. Even if he stays with Miami, he'll be the best backup RB in the league. He'll be very productive in relations to where he'll be drafted."
35. Matt Jones, WR, Jacksonville (dslaw): "Still learning the WR position and will have a healthy Leftwich."
36. Samie Parker, WR, Kansas City (slimflop): "Could take over for Kennison as #1 WR. I doubt he sets the league on fire but has some sleeper potential."
37. Jerricho Cotchery, WR, New York (Patoons): "I don't believe the Jets are happy with McCareins performance. He drops a lot of balls over the middle. Cotchery started to come on when given the opportunity late in the year. I think it may be an open battle for the #2. I don't believe he will be drafted, so maybe he's more of a flyer."
38. Cedric Benson, RB, Chicago (Colin Dowling): "Unlikely to go in the top-4 rounds, but he should have a shot to finish in the top-20 RBs. I know nothing will be resolved right now since there is no camp battle yet, but going in to next season, I suspect that Jones is going tohave to beat him out flat in training camp. Even if they end up in RBBC, he'll offer great value."
39. Chris Henry, WR, Cincy (Kirby): "They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped. 31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action."
40. David Carr, QB, Houston (einstein2u): "He has the tools, if Plummer can be a pro bowler, so can Carr."
41. Plaxico Burress, WR, New York (Verbal Kint): "He and Eli started to gel at times this year and their chemistry will only be better next year as Eli continues to progress. Manning has the arm for a good deep ball, which plays to his talents better than Hasselbeck did. He seems to have gotten past the dropsies he had in Seattle. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight."
42. Reggie Brown, WR, Philidelphia (loqutis): "Without TO standing in front of him crying for the ball, and another year under his belt he could put up solid numbers"
43. Najeh Davenport, RB, GB (loqutis): "He'll be the starter if Green doesn't sign. Slowly accumulating carries over the last couple of years and about to bust out before he broke a bone. I had a ton of excuses for Ahman Green when the GB running game was inept. turns out all they needed to do was plug in Najeh. In his first start of the season he ran for 54 yards on 12 carries (4.5 ypc) and 2 TDs. He's an UFA so if he doesn't sign with GB he may land somewhere else."
44. T.J. Duckett, RB, Atlanta (Two Deep): "If he was to be the featured back or even a goal line back, lets say in a place like Philly or Minny I could see him putting up some good numbers. Hell he got 8tds this year and they weren't consistent with his use."
46. Drew Bennett, WR, Tennessee (Don Quixote): "Injuries really took a toll on Tennessee this year, Bennett included. At least one of Brandon Jones, Roydell Williams, Courtney Roby, or Tyrone Calico will emerge to take some of the pressure off Bennett and allow him to return to 2004 form."
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My additions to the "bargain" column:
Perfectly fair for you to think that way...I just happen to disagree.
TOADS
