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2006 Steal of the Draft (1 Viewer)

:shrug: How bored are we to be debating steal/value/flyer/sleeper?

RE: Matt Jones -

I'm wondering where his ADP will be next year, but he is a potential WR1 that should be had much later.
You come round here March - June much?
I lurked for a long time, ignored most of that type of talk.
You might want to go back to lurking :rolleyes:
And we're not bored, it's a good debate.I'd rather debate this than Peyton Manning part XVIII.

 
How about Samie Parker he came on strong at the end of the season. Could take over for Kennison as #1 WR. I doubt he sets the league on fire but has some sleeper potential. He's quick and gets separation route running will improve but drops catchable balls. If he improves he will earn more looks.

 
How about Samie Parker he came on strong at the end of the season. Could take over for Kennison as #1 WR. I doubt he sets the league on fire but has some sleeper potential. He's quick and gets separation route running will improve but drops catchable balls. If he improves he will earn more looks.
Another year, another Chiefs sleeper WR. :D I still think Kennison will be the #1, but Parker is a decent late round pick in case Kennison gets hurt.
 
How about Samie Parker he came on strong at the end of the season. Could take over for Kennison as #1 WR. I doubt he sets the league on fire but has some sleeper potential. He's quick and gets separation route running will improve but drops catchable balls. If he improves he will earn more looks.
Another year, another Chiefs sleeper WR. :D I still think Kennison will be the #1, but Parker is a decent late round pick in case Kennison gets hurt.
I think the Chiefs' sleeper WR is better as Gonzo gets older, but even now, I don't see it in redrafts.
 
Ima have to say Julius Jones. He was 1st rounder this year, but because he was injured again people may see him as injury prone, but that is not true which if he gets picked in the 2nd - 3rd round he could produce as that # 1 RB :boxing:

 
Jerricho Cotchery is a guy that I'm keeping an eye on. I don't believe the Jets are happy with McCareins performance. He drops a lot of balls over the middle. Cotchery started to come on when given the opportunity late in the year. I think it may be an open battle for the #2. I don't believe he will be drafted, so maybe he's more of a flyer. The knock on him was that he had poor route running ability. From the looks of it, he definitely has improved that over the past year plus. I think he could be looking at 40-50/600-700 4 TD's next season. Probably not a valuable guy for guys in smaller leagues, but large leagues and deep lineups- he could show some value. Definitely a guy I think it is worth to take a shot on.

 
Cedric Benson. Unlikely to go in the top-4 rounds, but he should have a shot to finish in the top-20 RBs. I know nothing will be resolved right now since there is no camp battle yet, but going in to next season, I suspect that Jones is going tohave to beat him out flat in training camp. Even if they end up in RBBC, he'll offer great value.

 
Cedric Benson. Unlikely to go in the top-4 rounds, but he should have a shot to finish in the top-20 RBs. I know nothing will be resolved right now since there is no camp battle yet, but going in to next season, I suspect that Jones is going tohave to beat him out flat in training camp. Even if they end up in RBBC, he'll offer great value.
Very good point. I know I'd have a hard time taking him even in the top 6 rounds in most leagues, behind Perry and a few other young backs. But, I acknowledge that if he beat out Jones, he could be huge.
 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals.  You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.
Some of us took LJ in the 6th and 7th round. His ADP was in the 6th round overall, so anyone who took him in the 4th was overreaching a little (unless they had Priest). He won two titles for me in leagues I took him in the 6th and 7th and I didn't need to start him until Preist went down. I certainly think LJ was a huge steal. He was the #1 RB down the stretch. I cannot think of any other guy who could have been that much of a bargain. Palmer is also somewhat of a steal since you could have had him anywhere from the 6-9th round and he played like a 1st round pick. IMO, other steals were S Moss, Galloway, Glenn, Eli, Curtis, Kennison, Chambers, Cooley, T Jones.

 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.
Some of us took LJ in the 6th and 7th round. His ADP was in the 6th round overall, so anyone who took him in the 4th was overreaching a little (unless they had Priest). He won two titles for me in leagues I took him in the 6th and 7th and I didn't need to start him until Preist went down. I certainly think LJ was a huge steal. He was the #1 RB down the stretch. I cannot think of any other guy who could have been that much of a bargain. Palmer is also somewhat of a steal since you could have had him anywhere from the 6-9th round and he played like a 1st round pick. IMO, other steals were S Moss, Galloway, Glenn, Eli, Curtis, Kennison, Chambers, Cooley, T Jones.
IMO, a steal is a guy that outperforms his ADP by at least a couple rounds and a sleeper is a late round pick that outperforms his ADP and is also a steal.
 
I don't think you have a real definition of a steal - your 4th to 7th round players playing at 1st to 4th round level are your "sleepers." IMO, top half of the draft sleepers per se can not be steals. You flyers can certainly be steals.
I don't see why sleepers/steals have to be mutually exclusive, but that's fine. If I'm getting first round value out of a 4th or 5th round pick...that means I'm getting a top 12 fantasy player out of about the 50th choice. To me, that's stealing him.I understand why you see the definition that way...but I see this as two definitions for the same word. I don't think either one is wrong.
Larry Johnson was a 4th round player who played at 1st round level - as was Steve Smith - neither were steals.The players available in rounds 4 and 5 are anticipated starters and your anticiapted starters (by definition, IMO) can't be steals - they can be sleepers though.
Some of us took LJ in the 6th and 7th round. His ADP was in the 6th round overall, so anyone who took him in the 4th was overreaching a little (unless they had Priest). He won two titles for me in leagues I took him in the 6th and 7th and I didn't need to start him until Preist went down. I certainly think LJ was a huge steal. He was the #1 RB down the stretch. I cannot think of any other guy who could have been that much of a bargain. Palmer is also somewhat of a steal since you could have had him anywhere from the 6-9th round and he played like a 1st round pick. IMO, other steals were S Moss, Galloway, Glenn, Eli, Curtis, Kennison, Chambers, Cooley, T Jones.
IMO, a steal is a guy that outperforms his ADP by at least a couple rounds and a sleeper is a late round pick that outperforms his ADP and is also a steal.
Hey, someone agrees with me. :) That's comforting.

 
Ima have to say Julius Jones. He was 1st rounder this year, but because he was injured again people may see him as injury prone, but that is not true which if he gets picked in the 2nd - 3rd round he could produce as that # 1 RB :boxing:
My criteria is 3 rounds above the average draft position...so he'd have to be at least a fourth round pick (which I don't see) performing as a #1 RB.
 
Bfred...would this be a steal??? A guy who is projected to score 151 fantasy points but posts 237. That's roughly a 57% increase in expected production.

 
My loose definition of a steal (which is coming off the top of my head here) is defined by the ratio of his draft slot (where I get him) to where his performance slots (not his ADP, but where his performance ranks). First cut at this would be that a steal would be a "2", i.e. STEAL = DRAFT SLOT / PERFORMANCE SLOT >= 2.Therefore getting someone at 3.01 who performs as a 1.12 is a "steal". So is someone who is drafted in Round 6 who performs like a 3rd rounder. Steals get a little harder in the double-digit rounds, but someone in the 20th that performs like a spot starter / 9th/10th rounder counts too.See if that fits everyone's interpretations....

 
Okay...couldn't resist.L. ColesRex GrossmanKevin JonesRonnie BrownReggie BrownByron LeftwichSODMuhsin MuhammadKoren RobinsonVincent JacksonAaron BrooksCourtney RobyAntonio Bryant

 
My loose definition of a steal (which is coming off the top of my head here) is defined by the ratio of his draft slot (where I get him) to where his performance slots (not his ADP, but where his performance ranks).

First cut at this would be that a steal would be a "2", i.e.

STEAL = DRAFT SLOT / PERFORMANCE SLOT >= 2.

Therefore getting someone at 3.01 who performs as a 1.12 is a "steal". So is someone who is drafted in Round 6 who performs like a 3rd rounder. Steals get a little harder in the double-digit rounds, but someone in the 20th that performs like a spot starter / 9th/10th rounder counts too.

See if that fits everyone's interpretations....
That's pretty much dead on, I think.
 
Kevin Jones
Jones is my pick as well. Granted, the head coach/offensive system is a wildcard, and KJ fell on his face this year. But we saw that this guy has some talent down the stretch in 2004, enough that many were viewing him as a potential top 10 RB going into 2005.Things could have hardly been much worse on the offensive side of the ball this past year, so there is plenty of room for improvement with better QB play and perhaps FINALLY the emergence of their highly drafted WRs (excluding Rogers, who is probably gone).

 
Kevin Jones
Jones is my pick as well. Granted, the head coach/offensive system is a wildcard, and KJ fell on his face this year. But we saw that this guy has some talent down the stretch in 2004, enough that many were viewing him as a potential top 10 RB going into 2005.Things could have hardly been much worse on the offensive side of the ball this past year, so there is plenty of room for improvement with better QB play and perhaps FINALLY the emergence of their highly drafted WRs (excluding Rogers, who is probably gone).
To me, they need some sort of QB first...and more importantly, a defense. I still won't touch him until about the 4th-5th round at the earliest.Dynasty, I'd be a little higher on him.

 
Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .Kyle BollerFrank GoreCedric HoustonLee EvansMark ClaytonAntnio BryantLaveranues ColesReggie BrownZach Hilton

 
Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .

Kyle Boller
Why Boller, though?I do agree with most of those...but Boller has the most question marks to me...

To me, he had a great game against two teams that just rolled up and died. Minnesota and GB were both in bad mental states, and basically just handed those games to Baltimore, IMO.

I think his games surrounding those two (Houston, Denver, and Cleveland) show that he's still not ready...

Again, my opinion, but just curious to hear you expand on this one.

 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.

 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
Why would they stop throwing as much to TJ and Chad, after all they've proven?
 
Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .

Kyle Boller
Why Boller, though?I do agree with most of those...but Boller has the most question marks to me...

To me, he had a great game against two teams that just rolled up and died. Minnesota and GB were both in bad mental states, and basically just handed those games to Baltimore, IMO.

I think his games surrounding those two (Houston, Denver, and Cleveland) show that he's still not ready...

Again, my opinion, but just curious to hear you expand on this one.
I did not specifically ENDORSE any of those players, only that they played well and should be pretty far back in the pack come draft day.As for Boller, he was the #4 QB over the last 6 weeks of the season. He went in the 16th - 18th rounds in some of my leagues (in the QB 25-30 range). I'm no whiz at value, but that seemed to be a pretty good investment this year. Most people will have the same opinion of him next year as well.

I don't think Boller will be a regular start for fantasy purposes, but he showed that he could be productive.

 
Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .

Kyle Boller
Why Boller, though?I do agree with most of those...but Boller has the most question marks to me...

To me, he had a great game against two teams that just rolled up and died. Minnesota and GB were both in bad mental states, and basically just handed those games to Baltimore, IMO.

I think his games surrounding those two (Houston, Denver, and Cleveland) show that he's still not ready...

Again, my opinion, but just curious to hear you expand on this one.
I did not specifically ENDORSE any of those players, only that they played well and should be pretty far back in the pack come draft day.As for Boller, he was the #4 QB over the last 6 weeks of the season. He went in the 16th - 18th rounds in some of my leagues (in the QB 25-30 range). I'm no whiz at value, but that seemed to be a pretty good investment this year. Most people will have the same opinion of him next year as well.

I don't think Boller will be a regular start for fantasy purposes, but he showed that he could be productive.
Fair enough...I just worry that his production was from two games...and those two games, I feel, were under strange circumstances.

But, there's something to be said for the fact that Boller was able to take advantage of those situations, from a fantasy perspective.

 
Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .

Kyle Boller
Why Boller, though?I do agree with most of those...but Boller has the most question marks to me...

To me, he had a great game against two teams that just rolled up and died. Minnesota and GB were both in bad mental states, and basically just handed those games to Baltimore, IMO.

I think his games surrounding those two (Houston, Denver, and Cleveland) show that he's still not ready...

Again, my opinion, but just curious to hear you expand on this one.
I did not specifically ENDORSE any of those players, only that they played well and should be pretty far back in the pack come draft day.As for Boller, he was the #4 QB over the last 6 weeks of the season. He went in the 16th - 18th rounds in some of my leagues (in the QB 25-30 range). I'm no whiz at value, but that seemed to be a pretty good investment this year. Most people will have the same opinion of him next year as well.

I don't think Boller will be a regular start for fantasy purposes, but he showed that he could be productive.
Fair enough...I just worry that his production was from two games...and those two games, I feel, were under strange circumstances.

But, there's something to be said for the fact that Boller was able to take advantage of those situations, from a fantasy perspective.
Based on Billick's end-of-season comments, I don't think we can even be sure that Boller will be the starter next year. I imagine there will be some serious competition for that starting role.
 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
If Henry stays out of trouble, he could get something like 70-80% of stokley's 2004 numbers, but i dont see more than that with chad and housh to share with.
 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J.  They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
Why would they stop throwing as much to TJ and Chad, after all they've proven?
:confused: They won't stop throwing to either of them.. but Henry will move ahead of T.J. eventually, he's too explosive not to. T.J. was put in the slot most of the time when Henry was on the field, and he's going to be on the field even more next year.
 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J.  They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
If Henry stays out of trouble, he could get something like 70-80% of stokley's 2004 numbers, but i dont see more than that with chad and housh to share with.
I was thinking 55 - 800 - 10
 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
If Henry stays out of trouble, he could get something like 70-80% of stokley's 2004 numbers, but i dont see more than that with chad and housh to share with.
I was thinking 55 - 800 - 10
10 TDs for a #3 WR next year?I really can't see that.

 
I vote for Plaxico Burress. He and Eli started to gel at times this year and their chemistry will only be better next year as Eli continues to progress. Manning has the arm for a good deep ball, which plays to his talents better than Hasselbeck did. He seems to have gotten past the dropsies he had in Seattle. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight.I don't seem him being drafted until around WR18 at the earliest, but he could easily surge into the top 10.

 
I vote for Plaxico Burress. He and Eli started to gel at times this year and their chemistry will only be better next year as Eli continues to progress. Manning has the arm for a good deep ball, which plays to his talents better than Hasselbeck did. He seems to have gotten past the dropsies he had in Seattle. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight.

I don't seem him being drafted until around WR18 at the earliest, but he could easily surge into the top 10.
Burress played in Pittsburgh, not Seattle.
 
I vote for Plaxico Burress. He and Eli started to gel at times this year and their chemistry will only be better next year as Eli continues to progress. Manning has the arm for a good deep ball, which plays to his talents better than Hasselbeck did. He seems to have gotten past the dropsies he had in Seattle. Hopefully he keeps his head on straight.

I don't seem him being drafted until around WR18 at the earliest, but he could easily surge into the top 10.
Burress played in Pittsburgh, not Seattle.
Your right :bag: (blame it on having a 3 week old & having sleep depravation) :D still, I think he's got tremendous upside from his draft position next year.
 
Chris Henry is a stud and will eventually move ahead of T.J. They won't be able to double Chris and Chad, and that's the only way they can be stopped.

31 422 6 as a rookie in limited action.
If Henry stays out of trouble, he could get something like 70-80% of stokley's 2004 numbers, but i dont see more than that with chad and housh to share with.
I was thinking 55 - 800 - 10
10 TDs for a #3 WR next year?I really can't see that.
While I like Chris Henry, my favorite #3 WR down the stretch was Bryant Johnson in Arizona.
 
Rudi Johnson - RB - CIN"Worried over the uncertain status of QB Carson Palmer's knee and pre-season buzz surrounding RB Chris Perry's 3rd down speed and pass-catching abilities, CIN RB Rudi Johnson's torrid 2005 end-of-season fantasy performance will be lost on many fantasy drafters. A reasonable bet to fall out of most 12-team first rounds, and possible 2nd rounds as well, Johnson will wildly outperform his ADP. In short, he wil be the 2006/2007 SOD."

 
J.Lewis - This seems to be a forgotten man anymore. He was hobbled by an injury which he was never fully allowed to recover from in jail and also limited in his training. He was half the RB he can be this year, plan and simple. He is only 27 yrs old and still has the talent and ability to be a dominant RB in the NFL. This year he will be healhty and fully trained. Watch out!

 
Reggie Brown

45 receptions 571 yards and 4 TDs as a Rookie.

Without TO standing in front of him #####ing for the ball, and another year under his belt he could put up solid numbers

Najeh Davenport

He'll be the starter if Green doesn't sign. Slowly accumulating carries over the last couple of years and about to bust out before he broke a bone. I had a ton of excuses for Ahman Green when the GB running game was inept. turns out all they needed to do was plug in Najeh. In his first start of the season he ran for 54 yards on 12 carries (4.5 ypc) and 2 TDs. He's an UFA so if he doesn't sign with GB he may land somewhere else.

 
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Guys that played well at the end of the year that should fall in drafts . . .

Kyle Boller

Frank Gore

Cedric Houston

Lee Evans

Mark Clayton

Antnio Bryant

Laveranues Coles

Reggie Brown

Zach Hilton
Reggie Brown needs a #1 to complement him. He could be a good #2, but that's the usual story with Philly WRs (sans TO).Zach Hilton (TE-NO) has serious talent and many don't know him or his name. He has solid hands and is a HUGE target at 6'8". If used correctly he could be a Top 10 TE next season, ESPECIALLY if a WCO HC comes in to NO next year. The dropoff of Joe Horn would tend to lend itself to support this theory that the TE could be the #2 option next season - if Stallworth is ready for the #1 role for the 2006 campaign.

I endorse Hilton. However - this is the tricky part - his value will fluctuate in many drafts (which will likely mess with his ADP) - PPR? Must start a TE? Flex include a TE? 1 or 2 flex?

If you have a mandatory TE, he is worth a late pick for sure and could be the SOD. His value goes up for PPR and goes even further up if you have a flex slot that can include a TE.

:meninblack neuralizer flash:

 
Rudi Johnson - RB - CIN

"Worried over the uncertain status of QB Carson Palmer's knee and pre-season buzz surrounding RB Chris Perry's 3rd down speed and pass-catching abilities, CIN RB Rudi Johnson's torrid 2005 end-of-season fantasy performance will be lost on many fantasy drafters. A reasonable bet to fall out of most 12-team first rounds, and possible 2nd rounds as well, Johnson will wildly outperform his ADP. In short, he wil be the 2006/2007 SOD."
Who in the world thinks he's falling out of the *second* round, and what league do I sign up for to get that?
 
For those that completely missed out on Zach Hilton (and playing for the Saints it was easy to do so):

Code:
| 11  nwe  |    6    72  |  0 || 12  nyj  |    3    33  |  1 || 13  tam  |    4    50  |  0 || 14  atl  |    4    41  |  0 || 15  car  |    1     7  |  0 || 16  det  |    7    83  |  0 || 17  tam  |    5    74  |  0 |
Projected over a full season, that would give him 69-823-2. I doubt anyone but the shrewdest of sharks will have their eyes on him, and he should be a very cheap investment.
 
For those that completely missed out on Zach Hilton (and playing for the Saints it was easy to do so):

| 11 nwe | 6 72 | 0 || 12 nyj | 3 33 | 1 || 13 tam | 4 50 | 0 || 14 atl | 4 41 | 0 || 15 car | 1 7 | 0 || 16 det | 7 83 | 0 || 17 tam | 5 74 | 0 |Projected over a full season, that would give him 69-823-2. I doubt anyone but the shrewdest of sharks will have their eyes on him, and he should be a very cheap investment.
This is a great post.And I want everyone in my leagues to ignore it. :) TIA.

 
4.  Mewelde Moore, RB, Minnesota (Finatic):  "New HC Childress will actually allow him to play more than Mike Tice ever did.He will flourish in the WCO and become the Midwest version of Brian Westbrook"
Well reasoned and one I hadn't considered yet. Still, MM has DeShaun Foster disease.
I disagree with the Foster disease comment. You have to remember Mike Tice was the one saying he was hurt. Moore kept returning punts during that time and he also kept saying he was good to go. You can not judge anything on what Mike "The Dullard" Tice says.
 
T.J. Duckett : there has been rumors that he may be traded. If he was to be the featured back or even a goal line back, lets say in a place like Philly or Minny I could see him putting up some good numbers. Hell he got 8tds this year and they weren't consistent with his use.

 
For those that completely missed out on Zach Hilton (and playing for the Saints it was easy to do so):

| 11 nwe | 6 72 | 0 || 12 nyj | 3 33 | 1 || 13 tam | 4 50 | 0 || 14 atl | 4 41 | 0 || 15 car | 1 7 | 0 || 16 det | 7 83 | 0 || 17 tam | 5 74 | 0 |Projected over a full season, that would give him 69-823-2. I doubt anyone but the shrewdest of sharks will have their eyes on him, and he should be a very cheap investment.
This is a great post.And I want everyone in my leagues to ignore it. :) TIA.
Hush I say..... hush!!!
 
but, who knows if a change at QB and coach, plus Horn healthy will change things. I do agree he could be special. He is a huge guy.

 
Who in the world thinks he's falling out of the *second* round
Actually, you're right. I regretted it the second I hit "Add Reply."
Don't get me wrong, you're right about him slipping. I think he'll slip too, honestly.I just don't think he'll slip far enough to be a steal.

 
Willie Parker (if the Bus retires)TD's with screens.. and he will have to punch it in if the bus retires unless we draft LenDale White if he is avaliable.

 

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