2007 Redraft Lessons Learned? (1 Viewer)

[the hairy scotsman]

It was a crazy season.

What did you guys see this season that made you question "conventional wisdom" in redrafts?

What did you see that reinforced your old notions?

A discussion of anything new and different you learned this year about general personnel trends, etc, that you think you might apply to future seasons is what I'm looking for here...or of simply what was proven to be true again. A lot of weird and unexpected sh&t went down this year. How did it affect your views of the next redraft?

 

[Texasmouth]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

The waiver wire is almost as important as the draft. Thank you Grant and Graham.

Tony Romo was no fluke.

PPR leagues > non PPR leagues

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

 

[delusional]

Gore?

eh rb / rb doesnt always win, this was more of a fluke season then any i seen in a long time anyways

 

[BuckeyeArt]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

 

[saintfool]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

i thought he was talking about LJ off the cuff there...

 

[Texasmouth]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

i thought he was talking about LJ off the cuff there...

LJBrodie Croyle. Offensive line retired over the past two seasons.Missed training camp over contract.

 

[netnalp]

Confirmed - Don't take a QB really early, but not too late. (Romo 7th round in two leagues and Big Ben 9th in another).

Busted - I need to take a TE early to get a top one.

TE depth is pretty deep now so no need to jump on TE in early rounds.

(In my 14 team, I took Shockey in the 5th and Santana Moss 6th round. Could have grabbed any of these two Plaxico/Winslow/Braylon Edwards/Witten/MBIII/Santonio Holmes later I got Owen Daniels in the 11th and his stats were close to Shockey's. This decision had the biggest impact on my team IMHO. Went 5-8, 4th highest in total points, 5th in overall breakdown with 116-89-3, so league schedule had an impact too.)

 

[Dodge]

Balance in the favor of taking WRs over RBs early in non-PPR leagues with a few exceptions.

 

[saintfool]

Confirmed - Don't take a QB really early, but not too late. (Romo 7th round in two leagues and Big Ben 9th in another).

Confirmed - TE depth is pretty deep now so no need to jump on TE in early rounds.

(In my 14 team, I took Shockey in the 5th and Santana Moss 6th round. Could have grabbed any of these two Plaxico/Winslow/Braylon Edwards/Witten. I got Owen Daniels in the 11th and his stats were close to Shockey's.

Hasn't it been the case since maybe Gonzo's rookie year? there have been only a couple of "must have" TEs. The rest of them are all about the same.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

i thought he was talking about LJ off the cuff there...

LJBrodie Croyle. Offensive line retired over the past two seasons.Missed training camp over contract.

Still thrown by the rookie QB thing, although I guess you meant 1st year starter.

 

[netnalp]

Confirmed - Don't take a QB really early, but not too late. (Romo 7th round in two leagues and Big Ben 9th in another).

Confirmed - TE depth is pretty deep now so no need to jump on TE in early rounds.

(In my 14 team, I took Shockey in the 5th and Santana Moss 6th round. Could have grabbed any of these two Plaxico/Winslow/Braylon Edwards/Witten. I got Owen Daniels in the 11th and his stats were close to Shockey's.

Hasn't it been the case since maybe Gonzo's rookie year? there have been only a couple of "must have" TEs. The rest of them are all about the same.

I agree, it's my opinion though that the drop off is getting smaller between the top 5 and the rest. I'm not certain it was the case, it just seems the 2nd tier has gotten better and deeper than even 3 years ago.

 

[Texasmouth]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

i thought he was talking about LJ off the cuff there...

LJBrodie Croyle. Offensive line retired over the past two seasons.Missed training camp over contract.

Still thrown by the rookie QB thing, although I guess you meant 1st year starter.

Yeah, that is what I meant. He was basically a rookie.

 

[Texasmouth]

Confirmed - Don't take a QB really early, but not too late. (Romo 7th round in two leagues and Big Ben 9th in another).Busted - I need to take a TE early to get a top one. TE depth is pretty deep now so no need to jump on TE in early rounds. (In my 14 team, I took Shockey in the 5th and Santana Moss 6th round. Could have grabbed any of these two Plaxico/Winslow/Braylon Edwards/Witten/MBIII/Santonio Holmes later I got Owen Daniels in the 11th and his stats were close to Shockey's. This decision had the biggest impact on my team IMHO. Went 5-8, 4th highest in total points, 5th in overall breakdown with 116-89-3, so league schedule had an impact too.)

You wont be getting Romo or Big Ben that late this coming season. I cant believe you got Romo in the 7th. Maybe people in your league weren't up to par or something. He went 5th round at the latest in all 7 leagues I was in. The league he slipped to the 5th was a league that doesnt have a high QB scoring system. Witten will go earlier next season. KW2 will go earlier. MBIII will be a second rounder at the latest.

 

[LionsFan78]

Know your league’s scoring, inside and out. Don’t just understand them, but take the time to apply them to your ranking lists (either your own, or whatever you use). You’ll get a good idea of how your league’s scoring effects certain players, and why many guys finished where they did.

 

[Texasmouth]

Know your league’s scoring, inside and out. Don’t just understand them, but take the time to apply them to your ranking lists (either your own, or whatever you use). You’ll get a good idea of how your league’s scoring effects certain players, and why many guys finished where they did.

 

[saintfool]

I agree, it's my opinion though that the drop off is getting smaller between the top 5 and the rest. I'm not certain it was the case, it just seems the 2nd tier has gotten better and deeper than even 3 years ago.

i think the top 3-5 are still head and shoulders above the rest. i will agree that the 2nd tier is much deeper now than it has been.

 

[J-Rock]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Never draft a guy coming off of 400 carries that misses training camp and loses his entire offensive line and has a rookie QB.

Drawing a blank here.

Jackson.

Kinda thrown by the "loses entire offensive line and has a rookie QB" comments.

i thought he was talking about LJ off the cuff there...

LJBrodie Croyle. Offensive line retired over the past two seasons.Missed training camp over contract.

Still thrown by the rookie QB thing, although I guess you meant 1st year starter.

Yeah, that is what I meant. He was basically a rookie.

Kinda surprised the Kevan Barlow lesson was forgotten already.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

This is pretty much the opposite of true, but continue.

 

[Texasmouth]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

This is pretty much the opposite of true, but continue.

Sorry but i agree with J-Rock. The RB-RB BS is just that. BS. I went LJ, Steve Smith, Roy Williams in one league.

I went LJ, Steve Smith, TO in another league.

In my dynasty I had MBIII and Fred Taylor as my starters going into the season.

I went to the playoffs in all three leagues. Won the championship in the first one and in the dynasty. It had little to do with my RB and everything to do with my RB.

I grabbed different guys from the waiver but my WR stayed the same all season. I grabbed Ernest Graham and Ryan Grant off the waiver wire.

I have been playing fantasy football for 11 years. I had ALWAYS gone RB-RB until last season. In 2006 I went Steve Smith/Torry Holt in the first two rounds, got me to the Championship game.

RB-RB is a myth, especially if you play in PPR leagues, which all of mine are.

 

[LionsFan78]

Also something that can be forgotten in the many months between season and draft, but don’t be afraid to take risks during the draft. Especially when drafting with an early or late pick. With so many picks in between yours, sometimes you have to take a risk, and make what some may refer to as a “reach”. The safe, “I’ll take what they leave me” approach will rarely give you an advantage over everyone else. If somebody is there that you want, somebody you feel is the right pick, and you don’t think he’ll be there for you when it comes back around, then screw what everyone else thinks. Step up, grab him and move on.

 

[the hairy scotsman]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

This is pretty much the opposite of true, but continue.

Sorry but i agree with J-Rock. The RB-RB BS is just that. BS. I went LJ, Steve Smith, Roy Williams in one league.

I went LJ, Steve Smith, TO in another league.

In my dynasty I had MBIII and Fred Taylor as my starters going into the season.

I went to the playoffs in all three leagues. Won the championship in the first one and in the dynasty. It had little to do with my RB and everything to do with my RB.

I grabbed different guys from the waiver but my WR stayed the same all season. I grabbed Ernest Graham and Ryan Grant off the waiver wire.

I have been playing fantasy football for 11 years. I had ALWAYS gone RB-RB until last season. In 2006 I went Steve Smith/Torry Holt in the first two rounds, got me to the Championship game.

RB-RB is a myth, especially if you play in PPR leagues, which all of mine are.

This is what I'm talking about. This year seemed to be the kind of year that disproved the RB, RB theory, and we seem to have been headed this direction more and more for years. With all the injuries to the starters, there was a lot to be gained off the WW. RBs were also devalued by more and more teams going to 2 back rotations. Do you guys think this is a trend or an anomaly?I went RB, WR, WR, and it didn't work out for me due to injuries, but I think Texasmouth is on the right track here.

I re-learned something else, too. When debating between two players at the same spot in the draft, you absolutely must roll with the player from the time-tested offense. For me, it was between Gore and Addai at 1.06. I waffled for a long time and finally chose Gore because he was the more "proven" back. I still believe he's the more talented back, but what did that get me? I took him and Marvin 1 and 2. They killed me.

 

[Gr00vus]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

This is pretty much the opposite of true, but continue.

 

[Darth Cheney]

TAKE......THE......BEST......PLAYER.......AVAILABLE!!!!!! That's it....it's that simple. At least until the sixth or seventh round. This RB/RB crap is exactly that.

 

[Dexter Manley]

When choosing between similarly ranked players at the same position, look at the playoff schedule.

And when looking at the playoff schedule, don't just look at the perceived quality of opposing teams, but also which players will be playing at locations which have high risks of having bad weather during the playoffs.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Going WR, WR with a late 1st round pick can be a winning strategy. It's a lot easier to find a very productive RB later in the draft or on the waiver wire than it is to find a WR of the same caliber.

I know this theory has been out there for a while but I finally had the balls to try it this year with the 11th pick in a 12 team redraft (start 3WR non PPR). I ended up losing in the championship game.

This is pretty much the opposite of true, but continue.

Sorry but i agree with J-Rock. The RB-RB BS is just that. BS. I went LJ, Steve Smith, Roy Williams in one league.

I went LJ, Steve Smith, TO in another league.

In my dynasty I had MBIII and Fred Taylor as my starters going into the season.

I went to the playoffs in all three leagues. Won the championship in the first one and in the dynasty. It had little to do with my RB and everything to do with my RB.

I grabbed different guys from the waiver but my WR stayed the same all season. I grabbed Ernest Graham and Ryan Grant off the waiver wire.

I have been playing fantasy football for 11 years. I had ALWAYS gone RB-RB until last season. In 2006 I went Steve Smith/Torry Holt in the first two rounds, got me to the Championship game.

RB-RB is a myth, especially if you play in PPR leagues, which all of mine are.

Saying that finding a RB is easier than finding a WR late in the draft is not the same thing as saying you don't believe you have to go RB-RB in a draft. How many years in a row am I going to have to list the top 15 RBs or so side-by-side with the top 15 WRs and compare the ADPs? It's much easier to get a top WR late in the draft compared to a RB and it's not even close.

 

[LionsFan78]

One last one that comes to mind...

Either start a run on a certain position....or don't join in! Every year, you reach that point where a position (usually QB's, TE's and D/ST's) start FLYING off the board. First instinct might be "Oh no, I must grab one before there's none left!!!". Worst thing you can do IMO is to just join in and grab what's left. Just move on and exploit value at a different position.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

This year seemed to be the kind of year that disproved the RB, RB theory, and we seem to have been headed this direction more and more for years.

Not to get into the "RB-RB-RB" debate which I don't subscribe to, but I find it funny that any time QBs have an exceptionally good year fantasy wise, the "well I guess the stud RB theory is out the window" argument comes out.I'm expecting a huge overreaction to this, just like there was after Manning's 2004 season.Remember how "the old rules don't apply anymore" logic came out (kinda like real estate) after that year? Then people went nuts to compare the 2004 passing numbers to the 2003 numbers and make wild conclusions about stats based on that. Those of us that dug a little deeper saw that 2003 was a down year compared to previous years and being that 2004 was a pretty good uptick it made it look even bigger in comparison.I'm not saying passing stats aren't inflating by some percentage year to year since 1994, but to go and patent the jump to conclusions mat based on a good passing year which coincidently happened in a year with lots of RB injuries is silly.

 

[the hairy scotsman]

This year seemed to be the kind of year that disproved the RB, RB theory, and we seem to have been headed this direction more and more for years.

Not to get into the "RB-RB-RB" debate which I don't subscribe to, but I find it funny that any time QBs have an exceptionally good year fantasy wise, the "well I guess the stud RB theory is out the window" argument comes out.I'm expecting a huge overreaction to this, just like there was after Manning's 2004 season.

Remember how "the old rules don't apply anymore" logic came out (kinda like real estate) after that year? Then people went nuts to compare the 2004 passing numbers to the 2003 numbers and make wild conclusions about stats based on that. Those of us that dug a little deeper saw that 2003 was a down year compared to previous years and being that 2004 was a pretty good uptick it made it look even bigger in comparison.

I'm not saying passing stats aren't inflating by some percentage year to year since 1994, but to go and patent the jump to conclusions mat based on a good passing year which coincidently happened in a year with lots of RB injuries is silly.

I'm not really saying anything is or isn't. I'm just looking for everyone's ideas.My notion of devalued RBs didn't come from the QB position having a big year. It came from a down year for RBs, in terms of the "go-to" type of back.

 

[Tchula]

I learned not to avoid rookie RB's. I thought i was very iffy at the rb spot with ADP and Lynch as two of my three starters. Boy was i wrong.

 

[pats3in4]

Never overestimate how much a sleeper you think a guy is and how late you think you'll be able to snag him.

In my 12-team league with 4 WR spots on each roster, that means 48 WRs are getting picked. As most teams filled out their top 3 and a few even all four (about 39 WRs off the board), most guys in my league were working on their IDP picks, 2nd TEs and the like well into the late rounds. Wes Welker was still available, but I figured with only about 9 more WR4s to be picked over the next several rounds and everybody focusing on other positions, I could wait and snag him towards the end. Wrong. When I was all set to snare him with my next pick, the guy in front of me took him.

Pay attention to your leaguemates' drafting habits

In my league there was an early run on QBs. I stayed out, but then got stuck drafting Jay Cutler as my QB1. I got him around where his normal ADP would be, but that didn't do me much good.

 

[BassNBrew]

Draft players off teams that will score a pile of points. I think we need to put more analysis into which offenses will perform well and a little less on the individuals.

TDs regress to the mean...Fast Willie was over valued last year and will be under valued this year.

TO will be injured when it counts.

Don't draft the guy on the Madden cover.

Don't overspend for last year's top defense.

 

[Lobo237]

Know your league’s scoring, inside and out. Don’t just understand them, but take the time to apply them to your ranking lists (either your own, or whatever you use). You’ll get a good idea of how your league’s scoring effects certain players, and why many guys finished where they did.

and in the same vein, know your roster requirements. Do you have a flex spot? Start just 1 rb, 2 qb's? Learn what positions you have to start and where can you take advantage. Plenty of people go into autopilot over the standard league format when drafting and miss out on players who could be more useful to them because of it. Hoarding rb's does no good if you can only start 1. You might want to grab a qb earlier than you would if you have to start 2. Learn your league rules inside and out to put together your team.

 

[BassNBrew]

Don't let hype talk you out of drafting guys like Jennings this year. He looked great last year but everyone starting beating him up and pimping the new rook.

 

[LionsFan78]

and in the same vein, know your roster requirements. Do you have a flex spot? Start just 1 rb, 2 qb's? Learn what positions you have to start and where can you take advantage. Plenty of people go into autopilot over the standard league format when drafting and miss out on players who could be more useful to them because of it. Hoarding rb's does no good if you can only start 1. You might want to grab a qb earlier than you would if you have to start 2. Learn your league rules inside and out to put together your team.

1000% yes

 

[Restricted]

I learned not to avoid rookie RB's. I thought i was very iffy at the rb spot with ADP and Lynch as two of my three starters. Boy was i wrong.

Explain your theory to the person who took Brandon Jackson who went into a better situation than ADP and equal to Lynch's. I'd think rookie RBs probably have a 40-50% success rate and should be taken with caution.

 

[Banger]

Draft players off teams that will score a pile of points. I think we need to put more analysis into which offenses will perform well and a little less on the individuals.

TDs regress to the mean...Fast Willie was over valued last year and will be under valued this year.

TO will be injured when it counts.

Don't draft the guy on the Madden cover.

Don't overspend for last year's top defense.

I agree strongly with 3 of the 5.

The TD's regress to the mean is a great comment. Look at Witten this past year, he was severely underrated since he only had 1 td the prior year although his yardage was very strong.

Defenses are a crapshoot although the one defense I will target next year will be SD.

 

[Peak]

Know your league’s scoring, inside and out. Don’t just understand them, but take the time to apply them to your ranking lists (either your own, or whatever you use). You’ll get a good idea of how your league’s scoring effects certain players, and why many guys finished where they did.

You should know your league's rules better than your opponents.

 

[redman]

Don't shy away from proven RB's who are in schemes that emphasize the run and who weren't overworked the year before (Portis).

Unless you're going to draft a WR early (late 1st or early 2nd round), don't bother drafting one until after you've drafted your RB1, RB2, and (probably) QB and TE. There are plenty of less proven WR's who you can win with and pick up in the middle rounds. Plenty of teams won this year with guys like Santonio Holmes and Greg Jennings.

 

[the hairy scotsman]

Don't overspend for last year's top defense.

Guilty.I got cocky and did some things in the '07 draft that I never woulda done before. It cost me bigtime.

 

[pollardsvision]

don't write off the most talented WR in NFL history simply because of what happened when he played under art shell and an inn-keeper for an OC

 

[pollardsvision]

I learned not to avoid rookie RB's. I thought i was very iffy at the rb spot with ADP and Lynch as two of my three starters. Boy was i wrong.

Explain your theory to the person who took Brandon Jackson who went into a better situation than ADP and equal to Lynch's. I'd think rookie RBs probably have a 40-50% success rate and should be taken with caution.

i think he means, don't shy away from TALENTED rookie RBs

 

[beavers]

Some have been mentioned, but here's my top ten:

1. Don't wait too long for a tight end. However, don't stretch for one either because none of them except Witten played well in the playoffs.

2. Now that Turner is a FA, handcuffing is a thing of the past. I started out handcuffing the Jax and Atl RB's hoping the situation would settle and it never did.

3. Don't be afraid to draft RB, WR, WR, RB. In fact, I drafted RB (LT), WR (SS), WR (Marvin), WR (Housh) then finally my 2nd RB (MJD). It was a 10 man league. PS. I won that league with Daniels as a TE.

4. Pick the up and coming QB instead of paying a lot for one. A few seasons ago, I drafted Carson late and he exploded. This year was no different with Big Ben and Hass. Rivers is a prospect for next year b/c of how he ended 07.

5. Pay attention to the offseason -- Oline, coach changes, etc.

6. Don't overpay for last year's defense.

7. Be patient with running backs. While your league mates are stocking up on RB's, take a risk on adding WR depth. If there is a rush for WR's in the first few rounds, take the stud RB's.

8. Don't draft a QB in the first round. Even with Brady's season, I won't be drafting him in rd. 1.

9. Do not overlook Cleveland Browns and rookie RB's. DRAFT THE BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE!

10. Last but not least, do not draft a rookie WR expecting something special (see Calvin Johnson)

ETA: Be flexible with your draft and go with the flow.

 

[ipljeff]

 

[The Kansas Comet]

Never overestimate how much a sleeper you think a guy is and how late you think you'll be able to snag him.

I missed out on Minnesota's defense because I waited a round too long.

 

[Big Dumb Ape]

The lesson here is to not learn lessons from the previous year. Next year will be different than this year. If you don't get a stud QB or TE, wait. Good RB/WR depth enables you to take risks that can pay off. Don't over/undervalue players based on the previous year. Buy low, sell high, and work the hell out of the wire. Then hope you get lucky with injuries and in the playoffs.