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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (4 Viewers)

Jayrod said:
BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
I figured he was the best buy for a consistant scorer week in and week out. (and he's been over 20 each of the first 3 weeks).To offset his bye week, I have no one else on that bye week (I did have Ray Rice...but that's changed now). Pairing him with Romo, TO or Witten would have been too risky, but Dallas TD, Folk, Felix or Crayton wouldn't have been too big of a deal.
Just a quick note - There are 26 teams that have Tony Romo, Marion Barber, Terrell Owens, and Jason Witten. Of those 26 teams, one has 5 more Dallas players (9 total), and 4 other teams have 8 total. All 26 teams are still active.
Uhhhh.... :goodposting:The risk lies in week 10 when ALL of them are on a bye together.
 
136.7 with Cotchery (-5.8) to go tonight.Projected cutoff is 123.5? :kicksrock:
No. As of right now, the cutoff is 123.55. After tonight's game, the cutoff will rise. Seeing that you have a 13 point cushion and Cotchery (-5.8) left, I think you are safe.
To follow up on that, I put in the FBG projections for the MNF players (think I caught them all, got all the big ones anyway), and the cut rises only to 128. Should be about a 5 point rise if everyone plays to their projections. Last week was unusual in that there were huge numbers from popular players, and a good number of open scores from the hurricane bye.
 
BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
Can you explain your logic? Every team has a bye at some point, what makes the Cowboys Bye so tough, and does that mean you have no Bucs, Redskins, or Ravens? That's why you mix up your players, to avoid big Bye headaches but you can't avoid individual players. I don't see any logic in avoiding one of the highest power offenses in the league in this format because they have a bye week.1250 teams will get cut next week, 15% of the remaining entries. There are 6 teams on BYE (Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Seahawks), that seems pretty brutal to me, but I didn't plan to make it through just one week, and I certainly wouldn't have started with week 10 in mind.
 
Week 4 is my biggest Bye Week concern (with 4 players out). I picked players with early byes when the cuts were less competitive. Hope that works out later. Only two byes in Week 8 (both kickers), two in Week 9 (Saints D and Meachem) and 3 in Week 10 (Romo, Barber, Crayton).

I made a last minute kicker change and didn't look at my bye weeks --- have both Prater and Gould off in Week 8. Thus no kicker. But those are my only two players out in Week 8, so not too as worried as the Cutler, Marshall, ADP folks that week.

But damn...would have liked to have had a kicker that week.

 
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Can you explain your logic? Every team has a bye at some point, what makes the Cowboys Bye so tough, and does that mean you have no Bucs, Redskins, or Ravens? That's why you mix up your players, to avoid big Bye headaches but you can't avoid individual players. I don't see any logic in avoiding one of the highest power offenses in the league in this format because they have a bye week.1250 teams will get cut next week, 15% of the remaining entries. There are 6 teams on BYE (Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Seahawks), that seems pretty brutal to me, but I didn't plan to make it through just one week, and I certainly wouldn't have started with week 10 in mind.
I can explain the logic, but maybe not his.The last bye week is week 10, and the cutoffs get more and more difficult to make as the weeks go on, so the toughest bye week to get past, would be the one furthest in the schedule, or week 10.But I agree with you, that taking players on one of the highest scoring teams would probably counter the week 10 things, if the price is right.
 
I can explain the logic, but maybe not his.The last bye week is week 10, and the cutoffs get more and more difficult to make as the weeks go on, so the toughest bye week to get past, would be the one furthest in the schedule, or week 10.But I agree with you, that taking players on one of the highest scoring teams would probably counter the week 10 things, if the price is right.
That makes sense to me, but I worry about getting to week 10. Then I have to rely on Gore, Thomas Jones, Slaton, or Rice to step up. I certainly didn't put all my eggs in one basket, and I even paid a price to back Barber up with Felix Jones, but avoiding a player all together because of his Bye doesn't appeal to me.
 
Multiple big byes in week 10 are potential killers, but like it was mentioned, it is equally important to have good talent as well. I have Romo and Portis on bye in week 10, but I also intentionally covered their byes with a depth in the position. The thing that kills with byes is having a large part of a position on bye in a given week, with no room for error on your remaining players or else you put 0's in the score slots. Being front loaded with your byes is also advantageous, because the cuts are easier early than late.

 
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BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
Can you explain your logic? Every team has a bye at some point, what makes the Cowboys Bye so tough, and does that mean you have no Bucs, Redskins, or Ravens? That's why you mix up your players, to avoid big Bye headaches but you can't avoid individual players. I don't see any logic in avoiding one of the highest power offenses in the league in this format because they have a bye week.1250 teams will get cut next week, 15% of the remaining entries. There are 6 teams on BYE (Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Seahawks), that seems pretty brutal to me, but I didn't plan to make it through just one week, and I certainly wouldn't have started with week 10 in mind.
30+% of the remaining teams will be cut in week 10. Not a great week to have one of your studs on bye if you can avoid it, IMO. At various points during the month of August I had Romo, Barber, and/or Owens in my lineup but eventually all three were left out because I didn't want to risk going into week 10 that shorthanded.
 
BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
Can you explain your logic? Every team has a bye at some point, what makes the Cowboys Bye so tough, and does that mean you have no Bucs, Redskins, or Ravens? That's why you mix up your players, to avoid big Bye headaches but you can't avoid individual players. I don't see any logic in avoiding one of the highest power offenses in the league in this format because they have a bye week.1250 teams will get cut next week, 15% of the remaining entries. There are 6 teams on BYE (Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Seahawks), that seems pretty brutal to me, but I didn't plan to make it through just one week, and I certainly wouldn't have started with week 10 in mind.
The logic is that in week 10, I think there is a 30% cut. So you have to be in the top 2/3... not just a 15% cut or whatever next week. That seems like a more difficult cut to make to me so I avoided almost all Cowboys, Bucs, Skins, Ravens.
 
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BR33ZE said:
Can someone explain the thought process of rostering MBIII in this format?I had him on my roster for a while, but decided the week 10 bye week was not worth his value. That's a tough week to get past from the looks of it so I avoided most all the Cowboys because of it.
Can you explain your logic? Every team has a bye at some point, what makes the Cowboys Bye so tough, and does that mean you have no Bucs, Redskins, or Ravens? That's why you mix up your players, to avoid big Bye headaches but you can't avoid individual players. I don't see any logic in avoiding one of the highest power offenses in the league in this format because they have a bye week.1250 teams will get cut next week, 15% of the remaining entries. There are 6 teams on BYE (Lions, Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, Giants, and Seahawks), that seems pretty brutal to me, but I didn't plan to make it through just one week, and I certainly wouldn't have started with week 10 in mind.
The logic is that in week 10, I think there is a 30% cut. So you have to be in the top 2/3... not just a 15% cut or whatever next week. That seems like a more difficult cut to make to me so I avoided almost all Cowboys, Bucs, Skins, Ravens.
I admit I thought about this, however I decided to still roll with Owens and loaded up with LT2 and ADP to hopefully pull me through Week 10.
 
I think covering the bye weeks for your most expensive players is more important than when those bye weeks are, although later bye weeks are more crucial than early ones. Not that my team is great or anything, but I'll use it as an example...

Week 4 - Maurice Morris ($11), Ricky Williams ($8), Jason Hanson ($1), Miami defense ($1) - No high-priced players here, but I have Clinton Portis, Maurice Jones-Drew, Leon Washington, Ray Rice, and Steve Slaton to cover for the 2 RB's that are off. Kris Brown will be my only kicker, and I'll have only the Jets defense vs the Cardinals. I should be fine.

Week 5 - Jerricho Cotchery ($23), Leon Washington ($7), Dustin Keller ($2), New York Jets defense ($2) - I shouldn't need Leon at RB. My WR corps will be Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith (CAR), Derrick Mason, Reggie Williams, and Steve Breaston. I assume my flex score will come from my deep RB's corps, so I think I can afford to have Cotchery off. Missing Keller at TE won't hurt since I have Tony Gonzalez. And, I'll have to take whatever points the Dolphin D can put up against the Chargers. Another week I feel good about.

Week 6 - Tony Gonzalez ($23) - Gonzo is my only player off week 6, and with good reason. I chose to roster only 2 TE's, and went with the unknown rookie Keller. Therefore, I wanted to be at full strength in the other positions. I have to feel good when I have 21 of my 22 roster spots playing.

Week 7 - Maurice Jones-Drew ($34), Reggie Williams ($8), Kurt Warner ($5), Steve Breaston ($1) - Get to choose from Cutler and Delhomme at QB. MJD will be covered by Portis and company. And at WR, I'll have my top 4 guys (Marshall, Smith, Cotchery, and Mason). Should be fine in the only week that I have only 4 WR's to pick from.

Week 8 - Brandon Marshall ($23), Jay Cutler ($14) - Hurts to lose the Cutler-to-Marshall duo, but that's why they are my only players off. Possibly my toughest week, so let's hope the Delhomme-to-Smith duo connects and my stable of 7 RB's can put up 3 great scores.

Week 9 - Steve Smith ($23), Jake Delhomme ($12) - Like a mirror of week 8 for me, with only a QB/WR duo off. There are less Delhomme/Smith owners as there are Cutler/Marshall owners, so we will see.

Week 10 - Clinton Portis ($33) - Well, I also had Mason ($12) and Rice ($4), but they have already had their bye week. Having 21 of my 22 playing in week 10 should be a plus.

 
Based on the team sample at fantasy star, the SNF cut line is currently at 123...We'll see what the Turk has to say in the morning!
Unofficial pre-MNF cutoff would be 123.55
:excited:
Cha-Ching!That was impressive. Especially since there is an "adjustment factor" that I basically had to make up to hit the last 2 weeks, and I wasn't very confident in it! The Fantasy Star database actually scores quite a bit higher than the general contest for now, so I have to ratchet it down by a factor of about .9. I am also chopping our entries down every week, to kill the eliminated teams, and we will probably need to get a new group of teams in a few weeks.We locked the computation at the 425 valid entries on his site. Just over 500 were submitted, but they were invalid for one reason or another. Those of you that want to be part of the estimate in the future should double check your rosters to make sure you have exactly 22 players, that you picked the right guy (i.e the Steve Smiths, the Mannings, etc.), and that you add up to less than 250 (which is dependent on using the right guy!). Fixing/eliminating all the bad entries is what took us the longest to set things up. OC is trying to put on a valid team filter so that the next batch goes faster, but it will be kicking out live teams that are improperly submitted to him.
Nice Job on the cut prediction CTR :thumbup:I should have the rules in place to check the teams sometime this week...
I have 5 teams entered on your site, my contest team and the next best 4 teams I almost entered which I'm very interested in tracking as well.To help with tabulating the cutoff perhaps you could add a check box to the teams - I'd be happy to indicate which team is my actual contest team.
 
I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in

 
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I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in
Thanks for the um, compliment. May I add that maybe you should have picked a better team? :confused:
 
I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in
Thanks for the um, compliment. May I add that maybe you should have picked a better team? :confused:
Nahhhh, that's not it. He should've known better than to pick guys who were going to get injured.

 
I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in
Thanks for the um, compliment. May I add that maybe you should have picked a better team? :goodposting:
cold man, very cold
 
I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in
Thanks for the um, compliment. May I add that maybe you should have picked a better team? :goodposting:
cold man, very cold
Gotta take it if you're gonna give it! Good luck anyway, maybe you can win one with your kicker!
 
I HATE http://thefantasystar.com/fbg35k/

My score? 125.2 (with Kaeding -10)

The new "feature" - the estimated cut off, growing ever closer - it's like the chinese water torture

Thanks guys - YOU SUCK

No, not really - its a great service. Just tonight it looks like I am out. Injuries (and Brandon Jacobs sucking every week) has done me in
Thanks for the um, compliment. May I add that maybe you should have picked a better team? :goodposting:
cold man, very cold
Gotta take it if you're gonna give it! Good luck anyway, maybe you can win one with your kicker!
If SD stops scoring TD's and kicks FG's. Kaeding (-10) and I am not in good shape
 
projecting the cut at just over 133. Last update (11:45) is missing the final INT, but I don't think that will move us beyond a tenth or so. We'll see how things hold up with the Turk, but based on this morning, we should have it wihin a couple of points.

 
Done at 189.30 (per FantasyStar). Nice to have at least one week where the Turk's not breathing down my neck :unsure:

Of course next week I'll probably be back to :confused:

Kinda was hopin' LT2 would have a bad week this week to thin some of the competition from my fellow LT2ers, but alas he's too good to keep down too long :ph34r:

-QG

 
My most expensive player, Braylon Edwards, has done jack squat. If he ever remembers how to play, I could last for a while.

 
Glad to be here.

I like my Big 5 combo of: Romo, MBIII, MJD, Calvin Johnson, and Cotchery. I like it even better that I'm one of only 2 teams with that Combo.

 
In at 195.4. Third week in a row I've been in the top 300 scoring (second week in a row in the top 200). Hope these high scores early don't hurt me later, wish I could carry these points over!!

I'll be missing 7 players because they're on bye week four, so this will be my roster next week, hopefully it's enough to carry me through. Really hope Westy can go, I'm gonna need the help:

Jay Cutler

Brian Westbrook (?)

Reggie Bush

Ray Rice

Fred Jackson

Steve Slaton

Brandon Marshall

Jerricho Cotchery

Santana Moss

Steve Breaston

Alge Crumpler

Dustin Keller

Phil Dawson

Matt Prater

Buffalo Bills

 
#37 this week and only missing Ted Ginn next week. Really tried to space out my bye weeks. Still have several players who haven't contributed to the scoring so far, including Ben Roethlisberger at $21. Shouldn't have made the homer pick. Also nothing out of Ben Watson ($10) Shaun Suisham ($1) or the Jets defense ($2). That's $34 worth of dead weight on my roster.

Ugh.

 
Anthony Borbely said:
Is it just my imagination or are we getting rid of those pesky staffers earlier than last year?Like my team so far, only 3 players not used after week 3 (Matt Ryan,Deangelo Williams and Chester Taylor).

Loss of Shockey will hurt but hopefully Lee and Fasano will carry the load.

 
On to week 4. The top combos for each team should be getting uniquer. Here are mine:

Combos of 5

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Combo of 4

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Players off week 4: Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, Jason Hanson, Miami defense. Shouldn't hurt at all, because the only one I've used from this heap so far is Hanson. I also have Delhomme and Warner who have yet to count for me. It will be nice to get MoMo back at some point though.

 
161.5, no significant byes next week. Slow and steady wins the race!
:unsure: Right with you. 161.2 here.Robert Royal and Keller find the lineup this week after Burress and Owens stink it up. :thumbup: Waiting for Romo to save the day, has not counted yet.....or else that was a big waste of cap. :mellow: Maybe some Romo owners are flopping out making him more valuable down the road???
 
On to week 4. The top combos for each team should be getting uniquer. Here are mine:

Combos of 5

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Combo of 4

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Players off week 4: Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, Jason Hanson, Miami defense. Shouldn't hurt at all, because the only one I've used from this heap so far is Hanson. I also have Delhomme and Warner who have yet to count for me. It will be nice to get MoMo back at some point though.
I was they only top 5 of Grant Portis, Clavin Johnson, Homes, Steve Smith from the start.
 
On to week 4. The top combos for each team should be getting uniquer. Here are mine:

Combos of 5

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Brandon Marshall, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Jerricho Cotchery, Tony Gonzalez

Combo of 4

Maurice Jones-Drew, Clinton Portis, Steve Smith, Tony Gonzalez

Players off week 4: Maurice Morris, Ricky Williams, Jason Hanson, Miami defense. Shouldn't hurt at all, because the only one I've used from this heap so far is Hanson. I also have Delhomme and Warner who have yet to count for me. It will be nice to get MoMo back at some point though.
I was they only top 5 of Grant Portis, Clavin Johnson, Holmes, Steve Smith from the start.
 
Loss of Shockey will hurt me. I have Keller & Utecht, but Utecht is hurt. If he's not back in week 4, then I'll only have Keller at TE. Week 5 is Keller's bye, so I hope Utecht is back by then.

 

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