2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

[Kirby]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.

Cotchery, Keller and Watson have me off to a great start. 99.0% Hopefully the rest of the team doesn't choke.

 

[wolfie]

Hey, This Owner, is me. 99% to survive week 11.

 

[Itchy Amos]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.

I am amazed at how accurate this application is in predicting the general week-to-week outcome. It beautifully illustrates just how accurate the projections are. Nice work.

 

[BR33ZE]

It will be interesting to see how many of the 514 teams remaining with Portis go down this week if he can't go on Sunday.

 

[Jayrod]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.

Just having TJones & Keller moved me up from 70% to 84%.I think that is primarily because my TE's of Shockey, Utecht & Keller are considered a weak group. Getting a 20 out of Keller is a huge boost.

 

[Dr. Seuss]

You'd think I'd be higher than 43.5% with Jones, Cotchery, and Keller. I guess I'm getting hammered because I have Portis and no Betts.

QB - Matt Schaub - 13

QB - Vince Young - 12

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - Brian Westbrook - 54

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - Thomas Jones - 21

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Ray Rice - 4

RB - Lorenzo Booker - 2

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Donald Driver - 16

WR - Mark Clayton - 9

WR - Drew Bennett - 6

WR - Kevin Walter - 6

WR - Derek Hagan - 4

WR - DeSean Jackson - 4

TE - Owen Daniels - 19

TE - Dustin Keller - 2

PK - Mason Crosby - 3

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

TD - Buffalo Bills - 3

TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

 

[Jayrod]

-------- Percentiles -------- Team Surv% AvScore MAX 80 60 40 20 MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------> 215 181 173 168 161 146I find this very interesting.It looks like the odds are that the cut line will land around 170. That's pretty high, but I guess with no byes, a higher % cut and only quality teams left, it is to be expected.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

Apparently having only Keller last night does not help you, it hurts you. My odds of survival dropped 9 points.

ETA: Were any other projections in the simulation updated other than last night's game? Because that just doesn't make sense.

 

[meeka]

Just Keller for me. Nice game.

 

[nashua55]

I had Jones and Cotchery. I was hoping my percentage of survival would move up higher than the 65.6% to 70.2%. Unfortuneatly I chose the wrong Jet TE. I took Baker instead of Keller.

 

[Scarpaggio]

It will be interesting to see how many of the 514 teams remaining with Portis go down this week if he can't go on Sunday.

For me I'd like to see most of them go. I have portis but also have a 96% survival rate after last nights game, which is up from 85%. I had T. Jones, Cotchery, Keller and the Jets D. I'll be banking on Slaton and Deangelo if Portis is out. Then if I make it past this week maybe Felix Jones will be back as one of those wildcard RBs.

 

[ctriopelle]

Sheesh! No dogs in the race last night and I drop from 70's to 40's. I do see Portis is now pegged as a 0 by Dodds, but he also has Bush coming back and throwing in a relatively meaningful 13 points. I'd have figured by dropping a popular RB and keeping me with a rare RB would help some. Oh well, 40's worked last week, time to defy the odds again and make a Sunday push!

 

[bengalboy]

It will be interesting to see how many of the 514 teams remaining with Portis go down this week if he can't go on Sunday.

As a Portis owner, I'm hoping lots. I should be OK with over a 90% chance to survive this week thanks in large part to Keller, Jones, and Cotchery.

 

[Jayrod]

You'd think I'd be higher than 43.5% with Jones, Cotchery, and Keller. I guess I'm getting hammered because I have Portis and no Betts.QB - Matt Schaub - 13QB - Vince Young - 12QB - Kurt Warner - 5RB - Brian Westbrook - 54RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Lorenzo Booker - 2WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23WR - Donald Driver - 16WR - Mark Clayton - 9WR - Drew Bennett - 6WR - Kevin Walter - 6WR - Derek Hagan - 4WR - DeSean Jackson - 4TE - Owen Daniels - 19TE - Dustin Keller - 2PK - Mason Crosby - 3PK - Mike Nugent - 1TD - Buffalo Bills - 3TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

You only have one QB alive, so anytime the simulation gives Warner a bad game, you are going to be way behind.Also, you have a weak WR group since Bennett & Hagan are giving you zeros and the others are very streaky. Also, Owen Daniels doesn't look as good without Schaub because a good game from him could be a valuable flex play.Like I pointed out above, the cut will likely be around 170, so any and all weaknesses become major liabilities at this point.

 

[ctriopelle]

--------  Percentiles --------	   Team		   Surv%   AvScore   MAX   80   60   40   20  MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------>  215  181  173  168  161  146

I find this very interesting.It looks like the odds are that the cut line will land around 170. That's pretty high, but I guess with no byes, a higher % cut and only quality teams left, it is to be expected.

That's interesting, before the game yesterday it was more like 161. I suppose the end result of all of those calculations is that some players that were projected to not do fantastically did well enough to push things up a fair amount.

 

[nashua55]

--------  Percentiles --------	   Team		   Surv%   AvScore   MAX   80   60   40   20  MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------>  215  181  173  168  161  146

I find this very interesting.It looks like the odds are that the cut line will land around 170. That's pretty high, but I guess with no byes, a higher % cut and only quality teams left, it is to be expected.

That's interesting, before the game yesterday it was more like 161. I suppose the end result of all of those calculations is that some players that were projected to not do fantastically did well enough to push things up a fair amount.

I was wondering what the projected cutline might be if Portis was taken out of the equation. Plus I wonder how the survival percentage indicator would change too. Portis is on a high percentage of teams. His injury might have a significant impact on this week.

 

[BAT1man]

Any bad weather games this week that might impact popular high-point-scorers?

 

[Marvin88]

Simulation results updated to include results of NYJ/NWE game.

This owner of Gaffney, Jones, Keller, and Cotch moves up from 78% to 99%.

Cotchery, Keller and Watson have me off to a great start. 99.0% Hopefully the rest of the team doesn't choke.

Bumped me up to 92.4. Cotchery, Keller, and TJ get 20 apiece.

 

[Sheriff66]

Is FantasyStar not updating last nights stats?

 

[ctriopelle]

Is FantasyStar not updating last nights stats?

For whatever reason, his stats service only updates on Sunday/Monday. Not sure if it is because he needs to turn it on/off manually, or if it is just a function of the service. I'll see if we can get that changed.

 

[Dr. Seuss]

You'd think I'd be higher than 43.5% with Jones, Cotchery, and Keller. I guess I'm getting hammered because I have Portis and no Betts.QB - Matt Schaub - 13QB - Vince Young - 12QB - Kurt Warner - 5RB - Brian Westbrook - 54RB - Clinton Portis - 33RB - Thomas Jones - 21RB - Ricky Williams - 8RB - Ray Rice - 4RB - Lorenzo Booker - 2WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23WR - Donald Driver - 16WR - Mark Clayton - 9WR - Drew Bennett - 6WR - Kevin Walter - 6WR - Derek Hagan - 4WR - DeSean Jackson - 4TE - Owen Daniels - 19TE - Dustin Keller - 2PK - Mason Crosby - 3PK - Mike Nugent - 1TD - Buffalo Bills - 3TD - New Orleans Saints - 2

You only have one QB alive, so anytime the simulation gives Warner a bad game, you are going to be way behind.Also, you have a weak WR group since Bennett & Hagan are giving you zeros and the others are very streaky. Also, Owen Daniels doesn't look as good without Schaub because a good game from him could be a valuable flex play.Like I pointed out above, the cut will likely be around 170, so any and all weaknesses become major liabilities at this point.

True, I guess there has to be some likelihood of a mid-game Warner injury hurting the projections too. Even with Portis out, I figure with Westbrook and Warner I have a good shot at 160 points this week, but that may not be good enough. Daniels had a huge game the week that Schaub went down, so hopefully Rosenfels will feed him this weekend. I really need Driver to step up with a big game.

 

[ditka...mike ditka]

my survival went up to 52% from like 20% because of Watson...about time he did somthing. And i have betts to back portis, so hopefully I can squeeze by.

QB - Drew Brees - 23

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

QB - Matt Ryan - 4

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew - 34

RB - Clinton Portis - 33

RB - Chester Taylor - 14

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Ladell Betts - 6

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Terrell Owens - 36

WR - Brandon Marshall - 23

WR - Donald Driver - 16

WR - Santana Moss - 14

WR - Darrell Jackson - 5

WR - Derek Hagan - 4

WR - Demetrius Williams - 3

TE - Ben Watson - 10

TE - Chris Baker - 1

PK - Ryan Longwell - 3

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

TD - Baltimore Ravens - 5

TD - Miami Dolphins - 1

 

[Sheriff66]

Is FantasyStar not updating last nights stats?

For whatever reason, his stats service only updates on Sunday/Monday. Not sure if it is because he needs to turn it on/off manually, or if it is just a function of the service. I'll see if we can get that changed.

Great, thanks !

 

[Otis]

85%, snitches!

 

[weiner]

T. Jones, Keller and the Jets.

Up to 97.4%.

Nugent hasnt been performing so well for me though.

 

[CrossEyed]

It will be interesting to see how many of the 514 teams remaining with Portis go down this week if he can't go on Sunday.

As a Portis owner, I'm hoping lots. I should be OK with over a 90% chance to survive this week thanks in large part to Keller, Jones, and Cotchery.

I really need FWP to play and play well against SD this week. Then I need Portis to get healthy...quickly.ETA: And I only moved from 69% to 70%.

 

[apalmer]

--------  Percentiles --------	   Team		   Surv%   AvScore   MAX   80   60   40   20  MIN--------------------+--------+-------+-------------------------------------- CUT LINES ------------------>  215  181  173  168  161  146

I find this very interesting.It looks like the odds are that the cut line will land around 170. That's pretty high, but I guess with no byes, a higher % cut and only quality teams left, it is to be expected.

That's interesting, before the game yesterday it was more like 161. I suppose the end result of all of those calculations is that some players that were projected to not do fantastically did well enough to push things up a fair amount.

Yeah, my projected percentile scores (all but my Max) went up anywhere from 6-15 points, with my Avg. score going up 6 points, but my Surv% went down from 79.2 to 77.6 (only had Cotch active last night).

 

[The Duff Man]

Jones and Cotchery from last night, almost no change for me, 70% chance to move on

QB - Tony Romo - 23

QB - Jake Delhomme - 12

QB - Kurt Warner - 5

RB - Marion Barber - 40

RB - Thomas Jones - 21

RB - DeAngelo Williams - 15

RB - Ricky Williams - 8

RB - Steve Slaton - 1

WR - Calvin Johnson - 25

WR - Santonio Holmes - 24

WR - Jerricho Cotchery - 23

WR - Lee Evans - 21

WR - James Jones - 5

WR - Mark Bradley - 1

TE - L.J. Smith - 12

TE - Robert Royal - 2

PK - Mike Nugent - 1

PK - Jason Hanson - 1

PK - Rian Lindell - 1

TD - Seattle Seahawks - 4

TD - Tennessee Titans - 3

TD - Houston Texans - 2

Fairly diverse team. The only players who have counted more than 6 times out of 10 are T Jones (7), Cal Johnson (9), Evans (7). The only guys who have scored for me fewer than 3 times are Delhomme (1), James Jones (1), Nugent (0), Houston (1)

 

[apalmer]

Sheesh! No dogs in the race last night and I drop from 70's to 40's. I do see Portis is now pegged as a 0 by Dodds, but he also has Bush coming back and throwing in a relatively meaningful 13 points. I'd have figured by dropping a popular RB and keeping me with a rare RB would help some. Oh well, 40's worked last week, time to defy the odds again and make a Sunday push!

Just got a little tougher: Bush Out

 

[Scarpaggio]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

 

[EBF]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

 

[jdoggydogg]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

I feel your pain, though I have been very lucky with injuries this year. I am thinking that if you eliminate the whacky teams or the teams that were assembled very hastily, injuries have to be a giant factor here. Aside from Boldin, I've had almost zero injury problems.

 

[wraith5]

Had Cotchery and TJ last night, and my survival % actually dropped a few points - that shocked me. The TE's seem to have been the ones to have in that game.

Hopefully 72.9% will be enough for me to squeak by again.

 

[kevzilla]

Went from 50% to 63% with the Jones/Keller combo.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Went from 74% to 84% with Leon, Cotch, Keller, and the Jets D. Dodds has my projected score at 165.3, and my starters as:

QB - Kurt Warner

RB - Maurice Jones-Drew

RB - Steve Slaton

WR - Steve Smith

WR - Jerricho Cotchery

WR - Brandon Marshall

TE - Dustin Keller

Flex - Tony Gonzalez

K - Kris Brown

D - Jets

Personally, here is who I'd rather use:

QB - Kurt Warner

RB - Steve Slaton

RB - Ricky Williams

WR - Steve Smith

WR - Jerricho Cotchery

WR - Brandon Marshall

TE - Dustin Keller

Flex - Ray Rice

K - Jason Hanson

D - Jets

If I can get a decent flex score from a 3rd RB or a 4th WR, it would be great for Gonzo to have a bad game and get "uniquer".

 

[swampdog]

Amazing how hard this game can be. I made two mistakes this year. My bye week came to late in the season, as the teams that survived got plenty of points the simple errors become magnified. Next year I will try to have my damage (one bad week) earlier in the season when the scoring cut off is much higher.

My second error which was simple, two kickers in the same bye week. Just that simple error coupled with the bye week and I was out.

Good luck to the rest of you.

Swamp

 

[nashua55]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

I feel your pain, though I have been very lucky with injuries this year. I am thinking that if you eliminate the whacky teams or the teams that were assembled very hastily, injuries have to be a giant factor here. Aside from Boldin, I've had almost zero injury problems.

The Boldin injury was a blessing in disguise for you. The injury probably helped weed out some Boldin owners. Boldin is a TD machine this year. I wish I picked him.

 

[jdoggydogg]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

I feel your pain, though I have been very lucky with injuries this year. I am thinking that if you eliminate the whacky teams or the teams that were assembled very hastily, injuries have to be a giant factor here. Aside from Boldin, I've had almost zero injury problems.

The Boldin injury was a blessing in disguise for you. The injury probably helped weed out some Boldin owners. Boldin is a TD machine this year. I wish I picked him.

Much better than my Fitzgerald pick from last year's contest and a lot cheaper.

 

[Jayrod]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

I feel your pain, though I have been very lucky with injuries this year. I am thinking that if you eliminate the whacky teams or the teams that were assembled very hastily, injuries have to be a giant factor here. Aside from Boldin, I've had almost zero injury problems.

The Boldin injury was a blessing in disguise for you. The injury probably helped weed out some Boldin owners. Boldin is a TD machine this year. I wish I picked him.

Much better than my Fitzgerald pick from last year's contest and a lot cheaper.

But Fitzgerald this year has been very solid. Not quite as much value as Boldin, but he certainly hasn't hurt any of his owners. He's my most used player at 7 out of 10 weeks.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

I keep trying to tell myself that Maurice Morris is on my bench for a reason, and has yet to count for me. Oh, who am I kidding? What a friggin' waste of $11!

 

[Dirty Weasel]

My weekly averages

QB1 - 29.85

RB1 - 22.51

RB2 - 16.95

WR1 - 24.94

WR2 - 16.08

WR3 - 11.57

TE1 - 16.60

Flex - 14.60

K - 10.90

D - 10.50

Total - 174.50

Been averaging 181.30 since my pitiful 113.35 in week 1, where I made the cut by .50. It's nice to still be alive, but I shouldn't have even made it past week 1 with only 3 players in double digits.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Went from 71% to 79% with TJ and Cotch. Still don't like seeing my team out of the 90%

Is that the grim reaper er...Turk I see?

 

[Doug Drinen]

Went from 71% to 79% with TJ and Cotch. Still don't like seeing my team out of the 90% Is that the grim reaper er...Turk I see?

I hang out here all the time, just to make sure you guys are staying in line.

 

[jdoggydogg]

With 514 owning Portis I was wondering how many owned Bush and Portis. 55 teams alive that own Bush and 14 that own Bush and Portis.

:( No Bush and no Portis this week = I am probably dead meat. I put together a good team, but I couldn't afford to lose two of my three most expensive players during the same stretch of the season.

I feel your pain, though I have been very lucky with injuries this year. I am thinking that if you eliminate the whacky teams or the teams that were assembled very hastily, injuries have to be a giant factor here. Aside from Boldin, I've had almost zero injury problems.

The Boldin injury was a blessing in disguise for you. The injury probably helped weed out some Boldin owners. Boldin is a TD machine this year. I wish I picked him.

Much better than my Fitzgerald pick from last year's contest and a lot cheaper.

But Fitzgerald this year has been very solid. Not quite as much value as Boldin, but he certainly hasn't hurt any of his owners. He's my most used player at 7 out of 10 weeks.

I have Fitz in my dynasty league, so I am a fan. But he killed me last year and he was a pricey player to boot.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Been averaging 181.30 since my pitiful 113.35 in week 1, where I made the cut by .50. It's nice to still be alive, but I shouldn't have even made it past week 1 with only 3 players in double digits.

I made the cut twice by about 2 points - so I feel lucky to still be in this thing.

 

[rzrback77]

I was curious as to the effect of the numbers produced in the Thursday night game to a participant who had no Jets or Patriots, so I looked at my team.

Drinnen Week 11 predictor before the Thursday Night game first followed by post game

#45 86.7% ave 188 max 332 80-210 60-194 40-179 20-163 min 104

#694 66.8% ave 182 max 285 80-24 60-187 40-173 20-157 min 116

Using Dodds projections, my score will be 162 or so, but I have six players projected in double digits that will not be counted due to slightly higher projections for other team members.

Since 1000 of the 1600 will advance, you need to score top 63.5%. Will my predicted 60% score of 187 not be enough to make the cut? Does that call for a cut around 190? Wow!

Interesting that even though none of my roster played, my percentages dropped mightily. I guess the projections also were modified for players now projected as out. In my case the loss of Portis might have dropped the survival percentage even more than the success of the players in the Thursday night game. I do still have DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Slaton, Ricky Williams and Ray Rice, so I could survive without Portis.

Thoughts?

 

[CrossEyed]

I keep trying to tell myself that Maurice Morris is on my bench for a reason, and has yet to count for me. Oh, who am I kidding? What a friggin' waste of $11!

I feel your pain. Add Lorenzo Booker to the list of wasted RB $ on my roster.

 

[jdoggydogg]

I keep trying to tell myself that Maurice Morris is on my bench for a reason, and has yet to count for me. Oh, who am I kidding? What a friggin' waste of $11!

I feel your pain. Add Lorenzo Booker to the list of wasted RB $ on my roster.

Dude, I spent $18 on Fred Taylor. I win.

 

[apalmer]

Interesting that even though none of my roster played, my percentages dropped mightily. I guess the projections also were modified for players now projected as out. In my case the loss of Portis might have dropped the survival percentage even more than the success of the players in the Thursday night game. I do still have DeAngelo Williams, Chris Johnson, Slaton, Ricky Williams and Ray Rice, so I could survive without Portis.Thoughts?

Because Keller, Jones, etc. scored higher than their projections, the people who have them now project to higher scores. Since your projections didn't rise, a lot of teams moved past you, lowering your chances of survival.

 

[Jayrod]

I was curious as to the effect of the numbers produced in the Thursday night game to a participant who had no Jets or Patriots, so I looked at my team.

Drinnen Week 11 predictor before the Thursday Night game first followed by post game

#45 86.7% ave 188 max 332 80-210 60-194 40-179 20-163 min 104

#694 66.8% ave 182 max 285 80-24 60-187 40-173 20-157 min 116

Using Dodds projections, my score will be 162 or so, but I have six players projected in double digits that will not be counted due to slightly higher projections for other team members.

Since 1000 of the 1600 will advance, you need to score top 63.5%. Will my predicted 60% score of 187 not be enough to make the cut? Does that call for a cut around 190? Wow!

You aren't reading this part right. That 60th percentile is your individual 60th percintile score, not anything related to the cut line.The cut line numbers are at the top of the page and point to a cut around 170 pts (approx. 50th percentile of the cut)