HellToupee
Footballguy
thefantasystar.com
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2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Makavity
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HellToupee
Footballguy
I haveBuffalo(-10)& Lindell(-15). I hope its a low scoring affair
after ctriopelle ran the 11:15 I'm 165.90 with the cut at 145
after ctriopelle ran the 11:15 I'm 165.90 with the cut at 145
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ctriopelle
Footballguy
I'll do the FStar one at the 11:15 update in a couple of minutes. Drinen does it about 7:00 AM EST
bengalboy
Footballguy
ctriopelle
Footballguy
that would be a negative, Ghostrider....only got me 2 stinkin' points.Sitting at 136.15 with everything KWII has to throw tomorrow, plus Buf D (-5). Seeing as I'm currently about 10 down from the cut, I need a bit of a miracle...Pre MNF estimate from FS is roughly 145. I don't think there are any widely held players tomorrow, so I'm guessing a 5ish point rise right now. Looks like the 160s call was a bit high.
bengalboy
Footballguy
If KWII does half of what he did last week, you'll make it. Who knows, those 2 points from Portis might be BIG.
Unoffficially (by my math - I am not in Fantasy Star database) I am at 165.3 and only have Bills DST remaining. Hopefully that will be enough to sneak by.
Will be more than a bit frustrated if I don't make it as I have several that scored, but just not enough. Did not use at least four players that got into double digits, but could not score a TD.
Will be more than a bit frustrated if I don't make it as I have several that scored, but just not enough. Did not use at least four players that got into double digits, but could not score a TD.
nashua55
Footballguy
Dont think you have a thing to worry about. I will go out on a limb and say there is no chance you dont move on.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Glad to hear that. In the clubhouse at 159.45. Should live to fight another day.
CrossEyed
Footballguy
Erin Go Bragh
Footballguy
According to Fantasy Star, I'm at 163.85 once I account for Kurt Warner's three kneel downs at the end of the game. I have Lindell (-10) tomorrow.
I am probably jinxing myself but I'm not too worried about the Browns and Bills moving this cut 18+ points. Having a low scoring Sunday night game was key for me.
I am probably jinxing myself but I'm not too worried about the Browns and Bills moving this cut 18+ points. Having a low scoring Sunday night game was key for me.
Das Boot
Footballguy
.com
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
191.65 with the Buffalo Defense (-3) remaining.
Unofficial pre-MNF cut = 158.85
OK, this could be real iffy, but here is a simulation thing with the Thursday/Sunday games accounted for.
Remember that each player is simulated independently of the others, which is wrong. In the entirety of a whole week's worth of players, I think this effect is pretty minor. But with only a single game left, it could make a substantial difference. If you have Trent Edwards and Lee Evans, your chances might be different from what this simulation estimates.
This is just for fun.
Remember that each player is simulated independently of the others, which is wrong. In the entirety of a whole week's worth of players, I think this effect is pretty minor. But with only a single game left, it could make a substantial difference. If you have Trent Edwards and Lee Evans, your chances might be different from what this simulation estimates.
This is just for fun.
Cantonese32
Footballguy
Wow HUGE difference compared to FS estimate of 145. It should be interesting to read the replies of those who went to bed thinking they were safe.
Dirty Weasel
Footballguy
Of the 1600 teams fighting for the top 1000 spots:- 860 teams have a survival expectation of at least 90%
- 400 teams have a survival expectation of less than 10%
So, we have about 340 nervous teams left...
kevzilla
Footballguy
HellToupee
Footballguy
BuckeyeArt
Footballguy
Doug, hWile looking at the results, I see a lot that look like they are finished but have a real high Max score like this:22. Team 109681 | 100.0 | 201 | 681 200 200 200 200 200
That guy doesn't have anyone left but shows a max of 681. Am I reading this wrong?
Uh, yep. That's got to be a bug of some sort. And there are several other teams with similar freakishy-high scores on the max. Unfortunately, I won't have any time to look at it until tonight. So let the record indicate that the above-linked simulation results are to be viewed with suspicion (even more than usual).
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Ha! I think I found the bug. One moment please....
Bug fixed. This particular bug, anyway. The page at the original link has been altered. You may now return to the usual amount of suspicion.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
And as porky Pig says......that's all folks! Doug's redo has me at 10% (was at 13% 
). I'll need roughly 25 out of KWII and 12 out of Buf D. Not very confident in that.
The simulation estimate actually has required me to knock down it's score most weeks to hit the actual number (about 5% on average). This week, the pre-MNF cut is pretty much the same as the full value of the sample, probably because the remaining teams are getting more similar, therefore making the sample more accurate. Sorry to have gotten so many people's hopes up so high this week, including my own.
). I'll need roughly 25 out of KWII and 12 out of Buf D. Not very confident in that.The simulation estimate actually has required me to knock down it's score most weeks to hit the actual number (about 5% on average). This week, the pre-MNF cut is pretty much the same as the full value of the sample, probably because the remaining teams are getting more similar, therefore making the sample more accurate. Sorry to have gotten so many people's hopes up so high this week, including my own.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Still some goofy stuff in there, as with only 2 players to go, I doubt any circumstance would have me dropping 120+ on my score. Some others towards the bottom are also still getting some oddly big bumps. If I had to guess, it looks like all the oddballs have Buf D on their rosters, so maybe their score is haywire.
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Random
Footballguy
I have 160.35 + Buf D (-5) and a 34% chance according to the sim. I really hope something is wrong.
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apalmer
Footballguy
I saw the same thing. With only the Buf D (-4) left, my Max score is 96 points higher than my present score. Even Quinn can't throw that many Int's.ETA: On the other hand, maybe Doug is expecting Anderson to come back in for the Browns. That might explain projecting 100 points for the D.
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Random
Footballguy
Mine too
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Please tell me this is real....I had a big week, still have a couple of players left and only have 34% chance of making it. I figured I was safe last night and now will have to go out and add up my totals.Mine too
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Actually, you can get a decent idea of your current total by looking at your bottom projected score in the sim. It should be pretty much whatever you already have.
ctriopelle
Footballguy
Based on the sim, it looks like the estimated final cut will be 161.X Basically, it shoudn't rise much based on his calculations. The max is still goofed up by the strange high scores, but the middle ranges look pretty locked down. Gotta find a way to hit my last 2 guys up for 26 points that count!
apalmer
Footballguy
While you're at it, could you also find a way to get the Buf D a pick 6? TIA.
I'm at 163 with noone left and a 93% chance .... doesn't seem right.
Glad to see Doug so active in the contest with his reports. Still hoping FBG.com implements something next year eliminate the mass of similiar teams going into the contest. It's almost impossible to buck picking the "no-brainers". When they go off, you're giving up ground to too many teams, especially as the cut percentages increase. I still think a weekly per-season adjustment of players values would be the way to go. As long as you don't modify your team you keep the team you first submitted at those values. If you decide to make changes, you have to work from the latest revision of values. I suspect this would smooth out the % owned going into the first week of the contest.
Jayrod
Footballguy
That's basically saying that there is only a 7% chance that the cut line moves above you. Since it is in the ghigh 150's right now, it would take a lot of substantial scores to move it above your 163. Seems about right.
