2008 $35,000 Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

[Dork Matter]

First time playing this contest, and I can't believe how much fun this has been.

Entry 100958...

Shared Players on My Roster (more than 100 teams) - Won't move the needle too much, but will determine the baseline

==================================

Slaton 244

Warner 208

Ricky 160

Ray Rice 136

K Walter 130

Marshall 117

Cal Johnson 108

D-Will 102

Common Players on My Roster (50-99 teams) - Will move the needle a bit, and help add to the baseline

=============================

BUF DST 94

Romo 85

Cutler 79

MIN DST 51

Fairly Unique Players (20-49 teams) - Will move the needle quite a bit

=======================

Folk 47

Crosby 38

Fitzgerald 35

S Moss 30

Witten 27

Unique Players (1-19 teams) - Will move the needle a lot

================

Crumpler 18

Lorenzo Booker 16

Kenny Watson 10

Jacob Hester 6

Des Clark 2

Slaton, Warner and D-Will are pretty standard. Had considered Chris Johnson and Steve Breaston, and actually went two days after the submission deadline thinking I had picked them. Rats. Double rats considering I spent $9 on Kenny Watson.

Only 13 teams have Romo, Cuter and Warner together. Got 14.2 points from Cutler in week 7, when Warner was on a bye and Romo was injured. Haven't scored under 24 at QB otherwise, and averaged 30.5 points/week. I'm hoping the combination really pays off in the stretch run.

Only five WRs, but obviously I spent big on them. Interesting to see how few teams have Fitzgerald, and I hope he closes strong. Didn't see any real bargains at TE when I set my team. Since the position is so rewarded by the scoring system, I took Witten.

Other than Hester, who's starting to see a little work with LT2 so ineffective, my uniques are busts. I don't expect much needle moving from these guys. And Couch Potato owes me a beer for talking up Hester during the preseason.

Here's me counting on Fitzgerald, Witten and my QB triumverate!

 

[Charley]

201 and change - looking forward to the next 3 weeks

Used 10 times - Holmes

Used 9 times - Steve Smith, Shockey

Used 8 times - DeAngelo Williams, K. Walter

Used 7 times - MJD, Chris Johnson, Slaton, Marshall

Used 6 times - Cutler

Used 5 times - Warner

 

[dancingbones]

No one has to worry about me, but seeing how it's 1 against 250 at this point I would still like a respectable showing.Shared Players on My Roster (more than 100 teams)==================================Steve Slaton - 244Kurt Warner - 208Ricky Williams - 160Thomas Jones - 139Kevin Walter - 130Some of the usual suspects . . . but the RIGHT usual suspects. I added Slaton on the last day by taking Prater as a cheaper kicker.Common Players on My Roster (50-99 teams)=============================Clinton Portis - 75Matt Prater - 58I guess I have a somewhat unique team. No one else really that close to 100 and only 2 players in this group.Fairly Unique Players (20-49 teams)=======================Derrick Mason - 48Matt Schaub - 37Tony Gonzalez - 31Houston Defense - 30Donald Driver - 28Zach Miller - 26Anquan Boldin - 25Derek Hagan - 25New England Defense - 22If I'm going to make a move, this group will be a big reason.Unique Players (1-19 teams) - Will move the needle a lot==================Phil Dawson - 19Nate Burleson - 14Fred Taylor - 6St. Louis Defense - 6Philip Rivers - 5Deion Branch - 5No one here has really been a big scorer for me, although one big week from Rivers (OAK, KC, TB) would be HUGE if Warner laid an egg for everyone. Branch may finally start to pay some dividends (NE, STL, NYJ).That gives me 15 guys on fewer than 50 other teams. Granted, not many of them are big difference makers but some could be . . .

Where to you get the player ownership info? Did you look it up for each individual and piece it together, or is there somewhere I can just pop in my team # and get the info?Happy to be alive, and looking forward to the next 3 weeks!

 

[bigfishboy]

I got Turked last week. Very dissapointed.

I blame it on my decision to gamble on Selvin Young for $23. I knew his issues, but you need to hit in some high risk people to make a dent in this contest. I also think a big factor is being lucky with injuries. Schaub, Portis, and Nugent were my only injuries, I think I was pretty lucky. Though Schaub and Portis were ill-timed.

My questions to the 250 remaining are:

1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?

2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?

Thanks! See you next year.

 

[blend]

My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

1. Highest priced dud... probably Jonathan Stewart - $21 -- I went back and forth on this before the contest.. Stewart or Forte.. Forte or Stewart... But Stewart has counted for me 2-3 times, so I wouldn't say he's a total dud. The only person who did absolutely nothing for me was Derek Hagan - I think he was $8. I thought he'd fill the roll that Camarillo eventually did.2. Only injury was the Romo injury and the scare in Wk 7 b/c I took a zero at QB with Warner and Ryan on bye.** Other than the mentioned Stewart vs. Forte... I really considered going with a QB combo of Warner/Ryan/Neckbeard... that would have freed up quite a bit of $$$ that I could have used elsewhere, but this year has been a lot of fun. I think the farthest I got before this year was week 10 or 11.

 

[Scarpaggio]

I got Turked last week. Very dissapointed.I blame it on my decision to gamble on Selvin Young for $23. I knew his issues, but you need to hit in some high risk people to make a dent in this contest. I also think a big factor is being lucky with injuries. Schaub, Portis, and Nugent were my only injuries, I think I was pretty lucky. Though Schaub and Portis were ill-timed.My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

1. Colston, but he can have a big impact on my team here at the end. Felix Jones would be the runner up. With my RB of Portis, Slaton, T. Jones and Deangelo I could have used the 11 for felix more wisely with WR. 2. Colston, Felix Jones and now Portis were my only injuries all season.

 

[shims3]

Will there be a simulation or power ranking coming out for the top 250?

 

[del mar]

I got Turked last week. Very dissapointed.I blame it on my decision to gamble on Selvin Young for $23. I knew his issues, but you need to hit in some high risk people to make a dent in this contest. I also think a big factor is being lucky with injuries. Schaub, Portis, and Nugent were my only injuries, I think I was pretty lucky. Though Schaub and Portis were ill-timed.My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

Selvin is my highest priced dud although I did use his score three times. Mo Morris (once) and Ray Rice (twice) haven't been used often. All three could see more playing time during the balance of the year especially if Portis breaks down. I have been very lucky with regard to injuries. Obviously Selvin missing for two months hasn't helped, but since I am here I can't say it was a killer. Other than that Justin Gage missed a little time and Mike Nugent has never been used due to his injury. On the whole I can't complain.

 

[redsox14]

My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

Team 1072191. My highest priced dud is Torry Holt. I have used him a few times, but he was my third most expensive player at $32 and he has done next to nothing. The only player I have not used yet is Matt Ryan, but that is more a reflection of how good Cutler and Warner have been for me.2. My only injuries all year have been Portis, which has hurt me, M. Morris, which hurt a little, and TB TE Alex Smith, which has been a nonfactor. I have been very lucky in this regard.

 

[David Yudkin]

Where to you get the player ownership info? Did you look it up for each individual and piece it together, or is there somewhere I can just pop in my team # and get the info?Happy to be alive, and looking forward to the next 3 weeks!

I just entered one player at a time into the app linked a couple of pages ago. I do not believe that there is a way to enter your entire team at a time.

 

[wraith5]

I decided to look at my team on a "price-per-use" basis:

L.J. Smith, $12.00

Jake Delhomme, $6.00

Clinton Portis, $4.13

Ricky Williams, $4.00

Sidney Rice, $3.67

Steve Smith, $2.88

Jay Cutler, $2.80

Jerricho Cotchery, $2.56

DeAngelo Williams, $2.50

Thomas Jones, $2.33

Chris Johnson, $2.33

Zach Miller , $1.88

Derrick Mason, $1.71

Ted Ginn, $1.63

Kurt Warner, $0.83

DeSean Jackson, $0.67

Anthony Fasano, $0.60

Buffalo Bills, $0.50

Tennessee Titans, $0.43

Kris Brown, $0.40

Neil Rackers, $0.38

Steve Slaton, $0.20

Based on this, LJ Smith is the only guy I'd consider a bust.

 

[Jayrod]

I got Turked last week. Very dissapointed.I blame it on my decision to gamble on Selvin Young for $23. I knew his issues, but you need to hit in some high risk people to make a dent in this contest. I also think a big factor is being lucky with injuries. Schaub, Portis, and Nugent were my only injuries, I think I was pretty lucky. Though Schaub and Portis were ill-timed.My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

1. I've had only one real dud, and that was Nate Burleson. He counted for me in week 1, at least. Players that didn't account for more than a week or two are Utecht & Rice. Both were really cheap, though, so I didn't lose much and they've at least counted a time or two.2. I've had Burleson's injury, which hurts the most. Shockey, Schaub & Utecht are my only other players to miss games.Just noticed that none of my 5 RB's have missed a game. MB3, TJones, CJ3, Rice & Slaton....that's pretty rare, I'm sure.

 

[wraith5]

Price per point (only weeks that scored count):

L.J. Smith, .69

Sidney Rice, .42

Ricky Williams, .25

Jake Delhomme, .23

Clinton Portis, .21

Jerricho Cotchery, .16

Zach Miller, .16

Steve Smith, .15

Ted Ginn, .12

Chris Johnson, .12

Thomas Jones, .11

DeAngelo Williams, 10

Jay Cutler, .10

Derrick Mason, .09

Tennessee Titans, .06

Buffalo Bills, .04

Anthony Fasano, .04

Kris Brown, .04

DeSean Jackson, .04

Neil Rackers, .03

Kurt Warner, .03

Steve Slaton, .01

Based on this, LJ and Sidney Rice are both weak, Ricky, Jake and Portis are iffy, and the rest are $$$.

 

[Jayrod]

I decided to look at my team on a "price-per-use" basis: L.J. Smith, $12.00 Jake Delhomme, $6.00 Clinton Portis, $4.13 Ricky Williams, $4.00 Sidney Rice, $3.67 Steve Smith, $2.88 Jay Cutler, $2.80 Jerricho Cotchery, $2.56 DeAngelo Williams, $2.50 Thomas Jones, $2.33 Chris Johnson, $2.33 Zach Miller , $1.88 Derrick Mason, $1.71 Ted Ginn, $1.63 Kurt Warner, $0.83 DeSean Jackson, $0.67 Anthony Fasano, $0.60 Buffalo Bills, $0.50 Tennessee Titans, $0.43 Kris Brown, $0.40 Neil Rackers, $0.38 Steve Slaton, $0.20 Based on this, LJ Smith is the only guy I'd consider a bust.

Interesting view of things....here's mine:Nate Burleson, $18.00Matt Schaub, $6.50Marion Barber, $5.00Drew Brees, $4.60Ray Rice, $4.00Jeremy Shockey, $3.60Larry Fitzgerald, $3.18Steve Smith, $2.56Thomas Jones, $2.33Chris Johnson, $1.75Ben Utecht, $1.67Jaguars, $1.25Seahawks, $1.00Kurt Warner, $0.83Kevin Walter, $0.67DeShaun Jackson, $0.67Nate Washington, $0.50Neil Rackers, $0.50Dustin Keller, $0.29John Kasay, $0.29Dolphins, $0.25Steve Slaton, $0.14Yup, only Burleson sticks out.

 

[Jayrod]

Price per point - points per dollar

Nate Burleson, $1.059 - 0.94

Ben Utecht, $0.307 - 3.26

Jeremy Shockey, $0.278 - 3.60

Marion Barber, $0.239 - 4.19

Matt Schaub, $0.212 - 4.71

Ray Rice, $0.209 - 4.78

Larry Fitzgerald, $0.159 - 6.31

Jaguars, $0.147 - 6.80

Drew Brees, $0.137 - 7.31

Steve Smith, $0.135 - 7.41

Thomas Jones, $0.111 - 9.03

Chris Johnson, $0.091 - 10.96

Seahawks, $0.082 - 12.25

Nate Washington, $0.041 - 24.20

Kevin Walter, $0.041 - 24.22

Neil Rackers, $0.038 - 26.67

DeShaun Jackson, $0.036 - 27.45

Dolphins, $0.030 - 33.00

Kurt Warner, $0.028 - 35.21

John Kasay, $0.026 - 38.50

Dustin Keller, $0.018 - 56.80

Steve Slaton, $0.007 - 133.90

 

[wraith5]

Jayrod - we appear to be the only ones with WAAY too much time on their hands today

Someone smarter than me (lots of options here) will have to figure out what that data really means. I know low cost is good, but at some point I think it becomes a bad thing, too, because maximizing your cost-per-point (or start) means you are really depending on that player week in / week out.

 

[brownies19]

* Highest Paid Player: Edgerin James $27 (used the first five weeks though!)

* All but three players on my roster have been used at least five times this season. Exceptions are Devin Hester (4), Ricky Williams (3) and Jeff Garcia (0 - despite three games in the 20's). No player has been used more than nine times (Anquan Boldin, Thomas Jones).

* Only Edgerin James and Jeff Garcia costing more than $4/game used on my roster.

* The 10 guys who comprise my best roster on a weekly basis (Pts/Game Used) total 1347 pts on the season, with my bench of 12 guys totaling 1021 pts. These 10 players total $127 of my original $250.

* My $1 guys (Slaton, Breason, Prater) have contributed 324 of 2368 total pts on the season (25 ppg out of 182 ppg)

* All but four players on my roster (Garcia, Edge, Vernon Davis, Ben Watson) have scored at least 5 points for every dollar paid.

....Just a few more interesting ways of looking at....

Player Cost Used Pts $/Game Pt/$ Pts/Use

Schaub 13 5 145 2.60 11.15 29.0

Boldin 26 9 234 2.89 9.00 26.0

D.Williams 15 6 151 2.50 10.07 25.2

Marshall 23 6 138 3.83 6.00 23.0

S.Moss 14 6 137 2.33 9.79 22.8

Slaton 1 7 149 0.14 149.00 21.3

T.Jones 21 9 190 2.33 9.05 21.1

Prater 1 7 85 0.14 85.00 12.1

Buffalo 3 7 69 0.43 23.00 9.9

Watson 10 5 49 2.00 4.90 9.8

Garcia 8 0 0 Null Null Null

Warner 5 8 219 0.63 43.80 27.4

C.Johnson 14 5 100 2.80 7.14 20.0

S.Smith 23 8 160 2.88 6.96 20.0

Walter 6 5 96 1.20 16.00 19.2

Ri.Williams 8 3 55 2.67 6.88 18.3

Breaston 1 5 90 0.20 90.00 18.0

Hester 8 4 58 2.00 7.25 14.5

James 27 5 64 5.40 2.37 12.8

Kaeding 4 6 68 0.67 17.00 11.3

Tennessee 3 6 54 0.50 18.00 9.0

V.Davis 16 8 57 2.00 3.56 7.1

 

[Charley]

I got Turked last week. Very dissapointed.I blame it on my decision to gamble on Selvin Young for $23. I knew his issues, but you need to hit in some high risk people to make a dent in this contest. I also think a big factor is being lucky with injuries. Schaub, Portis, and Nugent were my only injuries, I think I was pretty lucky. Though Schaub and Portis were ill-timed.My questions to the 250 remaining are:1. What was your highest priced dud? More than Selvin?2. How lucky were you at avoiding the injury bug?Thanks! See you next year.

1. I've had only one real dud, and that was Nate Burleson. He counted for me in week 1, at least. Players that didn't account for more than a week or two are Utecht & Rice. Both were really cheap, though, so I didn't lose much and they've at least counted a time or two.2. I've had Burleson's injury, which hurts the most. Shockey, Schaub & Utecht are my only other players to miss games.Just noticed that none of my 5 RB's have missed a game. MB3, TJones, CJ3, Rice & Slaton....that's pretty rare, I'm sure.

1. Ditto for Burleson at $18.2. Only major injury was Burleson, so very lucky that my roster avoided injuries for the most part (also have Shockey, Utecht and some others that were banged up at some point).

 

[Cowboys#1]

Jamal Lewis.

I don't even want to remember how much he cost.

Also got through the Reggie Bush injury. Did it with Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton and some decent weeks by my WRs

 

[brownies19]

Jamal Lewis. I don't even want to remember how much he cost.Also got through the Reggie Bush injury. Did it with Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton and some decent weeks by my WRs

As a Browns fan, I know how it's been with Jamal Lewis...but that said, 15+ points in Weeks 4, 6, 8 and 10 isn't all that bad. Unfortunately, in quickly looking, I don't think he has 20 pts in any game this season. Still, at least he offers "hope" of contributing for you in Week 14, 15 and 16 for the $32 you and two others paid for him Mr. 106961. I'd gladly swap Edgerin James ($27) and Vernon Davis ($16) for Jamal Lewis ($32) and Dustin Keller ($2) and even send you a $9 check in the mail.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Here is a simulated Week 14 thing. It shows your average score, and your chances of finishing in the top 10 (at the end of this week, not the end of the contest), in position 11--50, and in position 51--100.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here is a simulated Week 14 thing. It shows your average score, and your chances of finishing in the top 10 (at the end of this week, not the end of the contest), in position 11--50, and in position 51--100.

Hey Doug -Is there a way to add my team to all these apps you put together? I can never tell where I stand on anything as I am not included.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Here is a simulated Week 14 thing. It shows your average score, and your chances of finishing in the top 10 (at the end of this week, not the end of the contest), in position 11--50, and in position 51--100.

Hey Doug -Is there a way to add my team to all these apps you put together? I can never tell where I stand on anything as I am not included.

You're in there, DY. I forgot to include names for the staff members, but your number (101394) is listed.Your team provides a good excuse to talk about the value of uniqueness. In terms of expected score, it ranks 186th, but a 4.5% chance of finishing top 10 is better than some people who are ranked 150 slots higher in terms of expected score. A guy like Donald Driver probably isn't going to outscore, say, Steve Smith by a wide margin. But if he does, you've got an advantage over almost the whole field. Same with guys like Schaub and Rivers and Fred Taylor. You've got a bunch of potential difference-makers.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here is a simulated Week 14 thing. It shows your average score, and your chances of finishing in the top 10 (at the end of this week, not the end of the contest), in position 11--50, and in position 51--100.

Hey Doug -Is there a way to add my team to all these apps you put together? I can never tell where I stand on anything as I am not included.

You're in there, DY. I forgot to include names for the staff members, but your number (101394) is listed.Your team provides a good excuse to talk about the value of uniqueness. In terms of expected score, it ranks 186th, but a 4.5% chance of finishing top 10 is better than some people who are ranked 150 slots higher in terms of expected score. A guy like Donald Driver probably isn't going to outscore, say, Steve Smith by a wide margin. But if he does, you've got an advantage over almost the whole field. Same with guys like Schaub and Rivers and Fred Taylor. You've got a bunch of potential difference-makers.

Another quick question . . .Can you list all 251 teams in terms of total points scored to date? So a basic #1 to #251 based on points scored to date. Thx.

 

[kevzilla]

The sim has me near the bottom, but I'm not concerned. Dodds' projections for my squad have been low for some time now.

 

[Charley]

The sim has me near the bottom, but I'm not concerned. Dodds' projections for my squad have been low for some time now.

Interesting ... I've been wondering about this. My $.02 are below.---

Here is a simulated Week 14 thing. It shows your average score, and your chances of finishing in the top 10 (at the end of this week, not the end of the contest), in position 11--50, and in position 51--100.

My team is also ranked low again -- this time in the bottom 31%. My odds of finishing in the top-100 are less than 35%, where the highest ranked team's odds are 64%.----

FWIW, this team here is the currently-live team with the lowest week 2 power rating.

The above team (103582) got eliminated in week 13.My team was also ranked pretty low (#4223) in the week 2 power rankings, but somehow is still alive.

I was fortunate with injuries (only Burleson out for the season), and there was one week where I squeaked by. But in general, I've been comfortably above the cut line. I've been thinking about why my team was consistently ranked low in the power rankings through week 9 (#4223, #3698, #4522, #3601, #3381, #2064, #1615, #1740) plus the simulations for individual weeks and the "rest of season" simulations since week 10 (with a single exception). For example, I was ranked team #336 in the week 13 simulation and team #428 in the "rest of season" simulation last week.

Although my roster has no high-priced studs, the team is loaded with quality players -- some like Cutler, MJD, Holmes, Steve Smith, and Marshall who were expected to do well -- some like Chris Johnson ($15) and DeAngelo Williams ($14) who were solid investments for their prices -- and some low-priced "value players" like Warner, Slaton, K. Walter who substantially exceeded expectations (but who had good prospects at the end of training camp).

And I have decent-to-excellent depth at QB, RB and WR -- QB (Delhomme, Cutler, Warner), RB (MJD, Slaton, CJohnson, DWilliams, Ricky Williams, Leon Washington, Ray Rice), WR (Holmes, SSmith, Marshall, Walter, JPorter, RegWilliams).

Although my team was carried most weeks by Cutler, Warner, MJD, Chris Johnson, DWilliams, Slaton, SSmith, Marshall, Holmes and Walter, significant contributions were made by the supporting cast of Delhomme (used 2 times, 51.1 pts), Ricky Williams (3 times, 44.5 pts), Leon Washington (3 times, 51.5 pts), Rice (3 times, 41.1 pts), RegWilliams (3 times, 37.3 pts), Porter (2 times, 17.1 pts), and Burleson (1 time, 17 pts) -- a total of 259.6 pts or about 20 pts per week -- and a key in avoiding elimination for at least 4 weeks when several of the "major" players had off weeks.

The depth at RB and WR was also critical for producing high pts at the flex position almost every week, especially down the stretch in weeks 10-13 where the flex produced double digit pts every week (11.3, 11.3, 13.4 and 10.8).

IMO, I think there are 3 reasons why a team with my characteristics was ranked so low in the power rankings and the simulations. First, I think the models overvalue the consensus studs who almost always have high projected pts each week. Second, the models undervalue roster depth in general and depth for the flex position in particular. Third, I think there is more variability, across players on a week-to-week basis, than is predicted by the log-normal distribution.

I can't prove the 3rd point about the standard deviation of actual pts being higher than the standard deviation used in the models, but it could be tested. For example, I think scoring can be decomposed into "TD scoring" vs. "other scoring" (yardage, receptions). The contribution of TD scoring is very discontinuous -- either 0 pts or 6 pts or 12 pts or 18 pts, etc.

Pure speculation - For each week, if you look only at players who scored no TDs, there's a cluster of total pts for that week by that group of players -- and the average is low. Similarly, if you look only at players who scored exactly 1 TD, there's another cluster. Similarly, for players who scored 2 TDs, etc. But I think the problem is that the sum of the individual clusters is not consistent with or generated by the log-normal distribution. On average, players who score 2 or more TDs have substantially more yardage and receptions than players who score 1 TD who have significantly more than players who don't score a TD. This is related to the fact that, every week, some players with low "projected" pts score 1 or 2 TDs, along with a lot of yardage and a bunch of receptions, and have high "actual" pts. I think this is also related to the fact that roster depth at key positions is critical to success in the contest, but is hard to capture adequately in models because of the high level of week-to-week variation.

If the pattern over weeks 1-13 holds this week, then I'll finish in the top half, rather than the bottom 80 as predicted by the model. Regarding the less than 35% odds of being in the top-100 teams this week, I can't really argue against that. Only 10 teams currently have Delhomme, SSmith and DWilliams. If these 3 Carolina players explode for some reason, then I'll definitely finish high this week -- but the odds are against it. Only 4 teams have Delhomme and Holmes. Again, if these 2 players have huge weeks, then I'll be in very good shape because I have the majority of the widely-owned players on my roster. Time will tell.

 

[del mar]

A very interesting point about the tendency to rate studs too high in the projections. I doubt that is the case. The actual performances of the studs probably have no greater statistical variance than for other players. I think we should keep in mind that the Dodds numbers are not created for this game. For example, it makes good sense to project a stud RB to do 20 points because some days he will do 24 and others only 16 (I am sure that Drinen can supply the appropriate bell curve). If you have to make a weekly lineup choice between Barber and Lewis almost any sane person would want Barber and that is the direction that the Dodds numbers point. However, there will be a day when Lewis turns out to be a better choice. In this game (or any salary cap game) having a player like Barber means scrimping elsewhere. On those days when Barber does a 11.0 his owners will likely hurt a lot. This tends to lead to large fallout rates because those owners probably don't have a lot of middle ground players to take up the slack. Bye weeks are a bigger problem with large amounts tied to one ot two players. Injuries in this group also tend to be catastrophic.

Want some proof? I arbitrarily took all players selected by any team in the contest who cost more than $33 and I looked at their survival percentages. The overall survival rate in the contest is 1.98% of the teams which started out. Those high priced players had these rates (in order from top to bottom): 3.32, 2.28, 2.27, 1.83, 1.66, 1.21, 1.15, 0.83, 0.70, 0.66, 0.53, 0.47, 0.44, 0.30, 0.24, and 0.00. So of 16 players only 3 had higher survival rates than the overall survival rate. Perhaps even more telling, nine of the 16 had survival rates less than half of the overall survival rate.

Those 16 players collectively appear 218 times on the rosters of the remaining 250 teams and Barber accounts for about 1/3rd of the total. This suggests that since most survivors have a stud it is possible to beat the odds, but you need to be right on target with the rest of your roster.

I will be rooting for 16 broken legs as I have none of those players

 

[Jayrod]

2 Members: Jayrod, wraith5 Dude, you and I need a life. And FYI, I'm a HUGE St. Louis Cards fan.

 

[scooterpea]

I have spent a little time and compiled a stat sheet for the remaining 250 teams in the contest. It includes how many teams have certain players, team's total points for the year, etc. If you would like a copy, email me @ skipv at hotmail dot com.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

Looking strong and unique for the playoffs...

QB

Peyton Manning - $27 - 4 owners left

Eli Manning - $15 - 3 owners left

RB

Chester Taylor - $14 - 8 owners left

Justin Fargas - $11 - 8 owners left

Pierre Thomas - $10 - 5 owners left

Sammy Morris - $9 - 1 owner left

Warrick Dunn - $7 - 1 owner left

Steve Slaton - $1 - 244 owners left

WR

Reggie Wayne - $42 - 1 owner left

Wes Welker - $32 - 2 owners left

Roddy White - $23 - 2 owners left

Donnie Avery - $5 - 2 owners left

Jason Hill - $2 - 7 owners left

Mark Bradley - $1 - 8 owners left

TE

Antonio Gates - $29 - 1 owner left

Visanthe Shiancoe - $4 - 4 owners left

K

David Akers - $3 - 2 owners left

Matt Bryant - $2 - 4 owners left

Jason Elam - $2 - 4 owners left

D

Giants - $5 - 1 owner left

Ravens - $5 - 1 owner left

Cardinals - $3 - 1 owner left

Just kidding. I got ousted last week (but I did have Steve Slaton from this list).

 

[dancingbones]

Where to you get the player ownership info? Did you look it up for each individual and piece it together, or is there somewhere I can just pop in my team # and get the info?Happy to be alive, and looking forward to the next 3 weeks!

I just entered one player at a time into the app linked a couple of pages ago. I do not believe that there is a way to enter your entire team at a time.

Thanks David, I'll check it out to see which of my guys to REALLY root for.

 

[wraith5]

2 Members: Jayrod, wraith5

Dude, you and I need a life. And FYI, I'm a HUGE St. Louis Cards fan.

Cards, eh? They used to be good, right? :mestandingonveryverythinice:

 

[Doug Drinen]

Random stat o' the night:

Only 17 of the 250 remaining teams have never been within 10 points of being cut. And this team here wins the award for least sweat during the course of the contest. The closest it came to being cut was 22.8 points. That's living right.

 

[Das Boot]

4 pts for Kaeding already....

Maybe he's in for a 4 FG night.

 

[Das Boot]

4 pts for Kaeding already....

Maybe he's in for a 4 FG night.

4-1 OAK26 (1:14) P.Rivers up the middle to OAK 24 for 2 yards (W.Joseph).

 

[Das Boot]

Not that I'm among them, but there are 5 happy Phillip Rivers owners so far.

 

[David Yudkin]

Not that I'm among them, but there are 5 happy Phillip Rivers owners so far.

 

[fasteddie_21]

Zach Miller having a decent first half.

 

[David Yudkin]

Zach Miller having a decent first half.

I have him too.

 

[Das Boot]

4 pts for Kaeding already....

Maybe he's in for a 4 FG night.

4-1 OAK26 (1:14) P.Rivers up the middle to OAK 24 for 2 yards (W.Joseph).

+3 to close out the first half! 9 points for Kaeding so far.

 

[fasteddie_21]

Zach Miller having a decent first half.

I have him too.

Me too (not so w/ Rivers though, but I DO have Kaeding)

 

[Das Boot]

Zach Miller having a decent first half.

I have him too.

Me too (not so w/ Rivers though, but I DO have Kaeding)

Only 22 teams have Kaeding, not too surprising since he cost $4With a big lead in the 2nd half maybe SD will let up a little on the TD scoring... and Kaeding gets to boot 3 in the 2nd half. <_<

 

[Country Boy]

I'm just happy to still be in, but I don't like my matchups for the next 3 weeks. MB3 and Ryan Grant would be key to me finishing high but their matchups don't look promising. In all honesty, I haven't had time to do much with this, just enjoyed opening open the team status page the last 13 weeks. Good luck to all.

 

[Das Boot]

Geez, I didn't realize 14 teams had Vince Jackson.

 

[kevzilla]

 

[A_PLUS]

Geez, I didn't realize 14 teams had Vince Jackson.

1 of 2 with the Rivers Jackson combo. They need to repeat this from here on out for me to have a shot, they are the bulk of my uniqueness. left (%)QB - Philip Rivers – 5 (2%)QB - Matt Schaub – 37 (15%)QB - Kurt Warner - 208 (83%)RB - Clinton Portis - 75 (30%)RB - Michael Turner – 49 (19.6%)RB - Thomas Jones – 139 (55%)RB - DeAngelo Williams – 102 (40.8%)RB - Ricky Williams - 160 (64%)RB - Steve Slaton - 244 (97.6%)WR - Santonio Holmes – 37 (14.8%)WR - Brandon Marshall - 117 (46.8%)WR - Steve Smith – 85 (34%)WR - Vincent Jackson - 14 (5.6%)WR - Reggie Williams – 25 (10%)WR - Kevin Walter - 130 (52%)WR - Muhsin Muhammad – 23 (9.2%)TE - Anthony Fasano – 26 (10.4%)TE - Dustin Keller – 185 (74%)PK - Mike Nugent – 60 (24%)PK - Matt Prater – 58 (23.2%)TD - Dallas Cowboys – 44 (17.6%)TD - San Francisco 49ers – 28 (11.2%)Suprisingly, Turner has been one of my biggest wastes. (28$, 4 starts, 7$ per). Although, I am most unhappy with my S. Holmes and Reggie Williams picks. They were Calvin Johnson and A. Bryant, in the 2nd from final version of my team. Although, their poor performance has made them unique, which could help. Regardless, it feels great being in the finals.

 

[fasteddie_21]

to Zach Miller's 18.4 and those of us 26 teams that have him (none of which have Jackson )

 

[Doug Drinen]

I re-ran the simulation again. This time with 5000 runs instead of 2000. Doesn't take as long since the field has been whittled down.

Before OAK-SD

After OAK-SD

The new top dog only had Vincent Jackson last night, but it really helped him a lot because his WR group is pretty weak compared to most of the field.

Here are the teams whose expected value increased by 10 points or more:

Team	   Before  After   Diff102815	 178	 194	 16101182 	186 	200 	14105435 	183 	196 	13103608 	188 	200 	12107759 	175 	187 	12108231 	188 	200 	12104903 	179 	191 	12109548 	184 	195 	11106961 	181 	192 	11105010 	190 	200 	10100474 	186 	196 	10102963 	181 	191 	10

On average, VJ owners gained 11.5 expected points last night. Rivers owners 7.6, Zach Miller owners 4.3.

 

[David Yudkin]

I re-ran the simulation again. This time with 5000 runs instead of 2000. Doesn't take as long since the field has been whittled down.

Before OAK-SD

After OAK-SD

The new top dog only had Vincent Jackson last night, but it really helped him a lot because his WR group is pretty weak compared to most of the field.

Here are the teams whose expected value increased by 10 points or more:

Team	   Before  After   Diff102815	 178	 194	 16101182 	186 	200 	14105435 	183 	196 	13103608 	188 	200 	12107759 	175 	187 	12108231 	188 	200 	12104903 	179 	191 	12109548 	184 	195 	11106961 	181 	192 	11105010 	190 	200 	10100474 	186 	196 	10102963 	181 	191 	10

On average, VJ owners gained 11.5 expected points last night. Rivers owners 7.6, Zach Miller owners 4.3.

I had both Rivers and Miller and my ranking jumped from 185 to 90, so I'll take it.

 

[wraith5]

Is there a prediction matrix set-up for the entire final 3 weeks?