I have Denver ranked 16th right now, and that's as much a byproduct of having to throw the ball a ton of times b/c of what I expect will be a horrid defense, than it is any indication I think the Broncos will be particularly successful offensively.
Of the 4 staffers with posted projections, you have Denver's fantasy QB scoring falling off the most (by 104.4 points). The average drop off was 75.7 points (21.7%).On the flip side, with Cutler going to Chicago, the same projections give the Bears an average increase of 19.9 points (7.4%). So it looks like the experts are predicting a more profound effect of Cutler leaving Denver than playing in Chicago.A lot of the projected Denver drop off, however, is likely due to the immense number of passing attempts the team had in 2008. While that 75 point drop off looks high, that's only 17.5 fantasy points fewer than in 2007.
Yes, well I've been pretty open about my skepticism of this new era in Denver. Too many people assume that Josh McDaniels can magically replicate the Patriots offense in Denver. Yet Marty Mornhinweg couldn't replicate Bill Walsh's offense in Detroit. Romeo Crennel couldn't replicate the Pats defense in Cleveland. Steve Mariucci couldn't match what Mike Holmgren did running the same WCO. My point is, people get too enamored with system and think it's plug and play. It's all about the personnel. The Pats not only have ASTOUNDING coaching, but they also are masters at finding personnel that fits that scheme. I have ZERO reason to believe that Josh McDaniels will be able to closely approximate what Bill Belichick did. People seem to forget that Shanahan is an excellent offensive coach, the reason the Broncos have a new coach is because Shanny couldn't get his defense right, plain and simple. We also empirically have every reason to think Cutler is an immensely more productive and able QB than Orton. With a new coach, who I think odds and history say will be less than the old coach, I just don't see it. Frankly I think the offensive line and the addition of Moreno should let them have quite a potent rushing attack; but will the defense be good enough to allow them to call a balanced attack? I think the most likely scenario is the Broncos have to throw more than they want to stay in games, and that's when the wheels will come off as Orton is exposed for the average [or less than average] QB we know him to be.
lots of INT's, and they'll be in the bottom 5 in time of possession due to that pathetic defense..
