2009 Redraft ADP (1 Viewer)

[BusMan]

12 team, 15 rounder.

First Round (non-PPR) First Round (PPR)01.01 - Adrian Peterson 01.01 - Adrian Peterson01.02 - Michael Turner 01.02 - Brian Westbrook01.03 - Brian Westbrook 01.03 - Michael Turner01.04 - Maurice Jones-Drew 01.04 - Matt Forte01.05 - Matt Forte 01.05 - Maurice Jones-Drew01.06 - DeAngelo Williams 01.06 - Chris Johnson01.07 - Chris Johnson 01.07 - Steven Jackson01.08 - Steven Jackson 01.08 - DeAngelo Williams01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald 01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald01.10 - Andre Johnson 01.10 - Andre Johnson01.11 - Calvin Johnson 01.11 - Calvin Johnson01.12 - Drew Brees 01.12 - Drew BreesCandidates (listed in 2008 positional ranking order)eAngelo Williams

Michael Turner

Adrian Peterson

Matt Forte

Thomas Jones

Steve Slaton

LaDainian Tomlinson

Clinton Portis

Maurice Jones-Drew

Brian Westbrook

Chris Johnson

Brandon Jacobs

Steven Jackson

Larry Fitzgerald

Andre Johnson

Calvin Johnson

Greg Jennings

Steve Smith

Roddy White

Drew Brees

Aaron Rodgers

Jay Cutler

Kurt Warner

Philip Rivers

Peyton Manning

Who am I missing?

Maybe Marion Barber?

Help me out SP, who should go 01.01?

How do you see the first round shaking out?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

for PPR:

1 - ADP

2 - Brian Westbrook

3 - M. Turner

4 - DeAngelo

5 - MJD

6 - Forte

7 - Barber

8 - Bush

9 - LT

10 - A.Johnson

11 - Fitzgerald

12 - C.Johnson

 

[Winning IS Everything]

I still think Peterson goes #1 overall. He will be in his 3rd year and will still be improving (as scary as that sounds)....

I am starting to warm to the idea of Turner at #2. It is very tough to put him that high but the body of work is there.

As good as Deangelo was this year, I have a hard time putting him in the top 3. I still like Westbrook to put up nice totals and Steven Jackson will put up monster numbers if he can manage to stay healthy.

I like Fitz to start making the 1st round in these type of drafts, and likely 1 or 2 more WR. A QB will likely get drafted too.

 

[Yitbos69]

for PPR:

1 - ADP

2 - Brian Westbrook

3 - M. Turner

4 - DeAngelo

5 - MJD

6 - Forte

7 - SJAX

8 - BushBarber

9 - LT

10 - A.Johnson

11 - Fitzgerald

12 - C.Johnson

Fixed

 

[BusMan]

Maybe we should have a list for PPR and a list for non-PPR? I'll work on that.

My current non-PPR Top 6 list:

1) Peterson

2) Turner

3) Westbrook

4) Jones-Drew

5) Steven Jackson

6) DeAngelo Williams

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

for PPR:

1 - ADP

2 - Brian Westbrook

3 - M. Turner

4 - DeAngelo

5 - MJD

6 - Forte

7 - SJAX

8 - BushBarber

9 - LT

10 - A.Johnson

11 - Fitzgerald

12 - C.Johnson

Fixed

Sjax while as talented as anyone, we have seen the same song and dance for a few years now. Bad QB, Bad D, catches down, cant stay on the field and a whole new coaching staff coming in.He might provide excellent value next year, but I'd rather pass.

Bush is an enigma too, he was top 5 in PPR before hurting his knee. and was having a phenominal PPR league season. But I can see passing on him too.

Barber is no slam dunk either had a hard time putting him that high

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Maybe we should have a list for PPR and a list for non-PPR? I'll work on that.My current non-PPR Top 6 list:1) Peterson2) Turner3) Westbrook4) Jones-Drew5) Steven Jackson6) DeAngelo Williams

That's a pretty solid list. I might move MJD to 6-8 range and move Jackson and Deangelo up 1 spot each but that is personal preference only.

 

[puckalicious]

While I'm a big Turner supporter, I am not so high on a top 3 ranking for him. His floor is top-10 I think, but will ATL really use him as much next year? Doesn't it seem likely that Ryan will improve and the passing game will increase while the running game (at least Turner's # of carries) will likely decrease? I can see as much as a 10% dip in his numbers next year based on this alone.

 

[BusMan]

As more and more comments come in, I'll update the first post with where I see the various ADPs heading. Feel free to blast the rankings as we go along.

 

[BusMan]

While I'm a big Turner supporter, I am not so high on a top 3 ranking for him. His floor is top-10 I think, but will ATL really use him as much next year? Doesn't it seem likely that Ryan will improve and the passing game will increase while the running game (at least Turner's # of carries) will likely decrease? I can see as much as a 10% dip in his numbers next year based on this alone.

A 10% dip would still have him as the 3rd or 4th best RB in 2008.

 

[David Yudkin]

If the news that Bush had microfracture surgery turns out to be true, I'd be hard pressed to rank him anywhere near the Top 10.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

If the news that Bush had microfracture surgery turns out to be true, I'd be hard pressed to rank him anywhere near the Top 10.

agreed

 

[moondog]

I think Barber will be giving up carries to both Felix Jones and Tashard Choice next year, especially Felix.

 

[FUBAR]

non-PPR

1. Peterson

2. Turner

3. Westbrook

4. MJD

5. Portis

PPR

1. Peterson

2. Westbrook

3. MJD

4. Turner

5. Forte

I'd like to list CJ3 and D-Will in the top 5 (CJ3 for PPR), but can't see myself drafting part of a RBBC in the top 5. I could easily see myself drafting both backs if I get a later 1st and early 2nd.

 

[Moe Green]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

 

[Garts]

If Bush is dinged next year, Pierre Thomas is gonna be BIG.

He can do everything and has the trust of Payton and almost importantly Brees.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

4th OC in 4 years coming for this team. He was very solid until getting banged up. Let's see who singletary brings in, but my guess is he will continue to underwhelm

 

[TidesofWar]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

In Gore we trust - especially with Mad Mike S in and Mad mike Martz out I like Forte to be in the top 3 in PPR, especially with some WR helpI think the boys deal one of those 3 backs, and I think Choice would thrive as a #1 back with them - could they deal Barber?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

In Gore we trust - especially with Mad Mike S in and Mad mike Martz out I like Forte to be in the top 3 in PPR, especially with some WR helpI think the boys deal one of those 3 backs, and I think Choice would thrive as a #1 back with them - could they deal Barber?

after Mike S took over the team then gore numbers drop? not sure I see losing martz as a good thing at all

 

[gonzobill5]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

In Gore we trust - especially with Mad Mike S in and Mad mike Martz out I like Forte to be in the top 3 in PPR, especially with some WR helpI think the boys deal one of those 3 backs, and I think Choice would thrive as a #1 back with them - could they deal Barber?

after Mike S took over the team that gore numbers drop? not sure I see losing martz as a good thing at all

and how would a wr help forte's ppr numbers? he get's so many dumpoffs because they have no wr.

 

[puckalicious]

Gore no where near the Top 10?

I like Gore, but the dings here and there amd the lack of TD's seem to hurt him. In my PPR league though he was a great producer. I think he is a possible Top 10 guy depending how well that team does next year.

In Gore we trust - especially with Mad Mike S in and Mad mike Martz out I like Forte to be in the top 3 in PPR, especially with some WR helpI think the boys deal one of those 3 backs, and I think Choice would thrive as a #1 back with them - could they deal Barber?

Choice may go, but no way on Barber due to salary cap hit as discussed in another thread (sorry no link). I don't think any changes will happen at RB in Dallas.

 

[BusMan]

First post updated. I'm struggling at 01.03 in PPR leagues between MJD, Forte, Turner, and DeAngelo.

 

[bucsbaby]

Gore seriously gets no love on these forums.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Where's Portis on these lists ?!?

And apparently LT is out of the top 10

 

[BusMan]

Gore seriously gets no love on these forums.

RB 14 - 2008RB 9 - 2007RB 4 - 2006Where would you draft him in the first round of a 2009 redraft?

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

I was getting Gore in the first few picks of the 2nd round this season and he will probably be there again for 2009. I don't see his ADP moving into the top 10. People who didn't own him may not realize how dependable he was for most of the year because he faded at the end.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Hmm, no mentions of Randy Moss yet. If you're picking at 9th or later I would love to get him.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I have no idea how you can rank MJD behind Peterson and Turner given that he outscored both them in 2008 with limited carries, playing on an offense with zero NFL-caliber WRs and running behind an offensive line that was in tatters.

MJD

Westbrook

SJax

D Williams

ADP

Turner

Tomlinson

Gore

Lynch

Any one of a half-dozen guys

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I have no idea how you can rank MJD behind Peterson and Turner given that he outscored both them in 2008 with limited carries, playing on an offense with zero NFL-caliber WRs and running behind an offensive line that was in tatters.MJDWestbrookSJaxD WilliamsADPTurnerTomlinsonGoreLynchAny one of a half-dozen guys

outscored them in what scoring system???

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I was getting Gore in the first few picks of the 2nd round this season and he will probably be there again for 2009. I don't see his ADP moving into the top 10. People who didn't own him may not realize how dependable he was for most of the year because he faded at the end.

thats my concern with him, faded due to injury and a change in coaching

 

[BusMan]

I have no idea how you can rank MJD behind Peterson and Turner given that he outscored both them in 2008 with limited carries, playing on an offense with zero NFL-caliber WRs and running behind an offensive line that was in tatters.

MJD

Westbrook

SJax

D Williams

ADP

Turner

Tomlinson

Gore

Lynch

Any one of a half-dozen guys

2008 FBG Scoring:1 RB Williams, DeAngelo

2 RB Turner, Michael

3 RB Peterson, Adrian

4 RB Forte, Matt

5 RB Jones, Thomas

6 RB Slaton, Steve

7 RB Tomlinson, Ladainian

8 RB Portis, Clinton

9 RB Jones-Drew, Maurice

10 RB Westbrook, Brian

11 RB Johnson, Chris

12 RB Jacobs, Brandon

 

[BusMan]

Just a brief aside/reminder: I'm looking for 2009 ADP, not necessarily your rankings. Maybe you have MJD #1 overall, but does that mean you think his ADP will be 01.01? Probably not.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

outscored them in what scoring system???

Sorry... PPG in PPR leagues. All my leagues are PPR and forgot to say so.ETA: also sorry for the hijack Bus. Didn't read closely enough.

 

[ceo3west]

A lot of guys are listing players I will be avoiding in the first round next year.

D. Williams - 20 TD's will be almost impossible to repeat or come close to again IMO; I beleive Stewart will be the value pick next year. Reminds me of Ahman Green's 20 TD season where he came crashing back to earth the next year.

LT2 - Injuries piling up. A classic case of guys living in the past. Someone will take him in the first round and will be VERY disappointed. The writing is on the wall, open your eyes.

S Jax - Until he can stay healthy and produce like a first rounder for a full year, count me out. To risky for my taste.

S. Slaton - I need to see one more year before I spend a top 10 pick here. Of all the rookie RB's that emerged this year, I think Slaton is the least likely to repeat. Gut feeling.

Westbrook - I don't like picking 30 year old RB's in the top 10. Had him this year and survived despite him. Would be obvious top 3 pick if he played even 14 games, but given his history and age, I will pass and go with a safer pick.

 

[Black]

for PPR:

1 - ADP

2 - Brian Westbrook

3 - M. Turner

4 - DeAngelo

5 - MJD

6 - Forte

7 - Barber

8 - Bush

9 - LT

10 - A.Johnson

11 - Fitzgerald

12 - C.Johnson

For PPR, I'd be more likely to bump DeAngelo down some. He had 22 receptions in 16 games, which puts him around 45th for RBs in receptions in 2008, around the same as Jamaal Charles, JLewis, Jason Wright, EGraham, LBetts, LWeaver, TChoice, CBenson.

 

[Moe Green]

Gore seriously gets no love on these forums.

RB 14 - 2008RB 9 - 2007RB 4 - 2006Where would you draft him in the first round of a 2009 redraft?

Somewhere in the bottom of the 1st Round, but I'd be surprised if he doesn't go in the 1st in most 12-team drafts.

 

[bucsbaby]

I see him going near the bottom of the 1st round as well. I forgot to mention I play in ppr leagues though, where his value is significantly increased. If Martz is gone next year I see his value going up as well. His ADP will likely be lower than it should be but that just means he will represent good value next year imo. Show me 9-11 guys you would rank ahead of him and I will point out reasons why they may be question marks as well.

 

[BusMan]

I see him going near the bottom of the 1st round as well. I forgot to mention I play in ppr leagues though, where his value is significantly increased. If Martz is gone next year I see his value going up as well. His ADP will likely be lower than it should be but that just means he will represent good value next year imo. Show me 9-11 guys you would rank ahead of him and I will point out reasons why they may be question marks as well.

I'd probably put at least six or seven RBs, three WRs, and maybe even Brees ahead of him as I type today.

 

[thatguy]

While I'm a big Turner supporter, I am not so high on a top 3 ranking for him. His floor is top-10 I think, but will ATL really use him as much next year? Doesn't it seem likely that Ryan will improve and the passing game will increase while the running game (at least Turner's # of carries) will likely decrease? I can see as much as a 10% dip in his numbers next year based on this alone.

I'd like to see his carries dip to the 330-340 range - but I also think it's very likely that his action in the passing game will increase. I realize Norwood is their receiving back, but Turner was mildly effective with the 6 receptions he did get this season. Hopefully he'll be in the 20-30 reception range next season. I think it would behoove Atlanta to get him the ball on some screen passes on first or second down at least once or twice per game - if for no other reason than to keep defenses on their heels. Turner is far better in space than a lot of people realize and I think he could be very productive on plays like this if given the opportunity.

 

[BusMan]

Players I'm extremely uncertain of where to slot:

Steven Jackson

LaDainian Tomlinson

Larry Johnson

Also pretty sure the first round should include Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, at a minimum.

 

[David Yudkin]

Hmm, no mentions of Randy Moss yet. If you're picking at 9th or later I would love to get him.

Not sure what to make of this. No one knows who the Pats QB will be next year, whether Brady will come back strong (if at all), and who the OC will be. If things look rosy like 2007, then sure, Moss is a first round option. But given that we are a long way from knowing how things will play out in NE, I'd stay clear of Moss in the first round.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Players I'm extremely uncertain of where to slot:Steven JacksonLaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonAlso pretty sure the first round should include Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, at a minimum.

LJ should be nowhere near the first round unless he's traded

 

[David Yudkin]

Players I'm extremely uncertain of where to slot:Steven JacksonLaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonAlso pretty sure the first round should include Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, at a minimum.

LJ should be nowhere near the first round unless he's traded

Where could he go where he would be worth considering in the first round? Denver?

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Players I'm extremely uncertain of where to slot:Steven JacksonLaDainian TomlinsonLarry JohnsonAlso pretty sure the first round should include Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, at a minimum.

LJ should be nowhere near the first round unless he's traded

Where could he go where he would be worth considering in the first round? Denver?

I dunno, but I probably wont consider him even if he was traded. Good point

 

[BusMan]

First Round (non-PPR)						 First Round (PPR)01.01 - Adrian Peterson					   01.01 - Adrian Peterson01.02 - Michael Turner						01.02 - Brian Westbrook01.03 - Brian Westbrook					   01.03 - Michael Turner01.04 - Maurice Jones-Drew					01.04 - Matt Forte01.05 - Matt Forte							01.05 - Maurice Jones-Drew01.06 - DeAngelo Williams					 01.06 - Chris Johnson01.07 - Chris Johnson						 01.07 - Steven Jackson01.08 - Steven Jackson						01.08 - DeAngelo Williams01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald					  01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald01.10 - Andre Johnson						 01.10 - Andre Johnson01.11 - Calvin Johnson						01.11 - Calvin Johnson01.12 - Drew Brees							01.12 - Drew Brees

OP updated. Fire away.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Given that Turner had 377 regular season carries, 1699 yards and 17 TDs, he is likely to regress to the mean in all 3 categories. He is also more likely to get injured via the curse of 370 (plus his playoff carries add up, too). His catches are not likely to increase much in 2009, as there is no reason for him to get more catches. They simply throw to the WRs, Norwood and other players in that offense, which is likely to be unchanged.

Atlanta's schedule was quite easy in 2008, but they now play the NFC East, and AFC East in 2009 and Chicago intraconference (vs. NFC North and AFC West in 2008), so that is 4-5 tough rushing match ups, so a tougher schedule is likely. He won't be playing the Lions, Chiefs or Rams in 2009, where he totaled 532 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games.

He also had 4 games of under 6 points (PPR), which is a lot of variance and a big negative for a first round pick.

On the plus side, he did have a solid yards per carry, but I could not take him in the top 6 or 7 in a point per catch league, as it would appear impossible for him to exceed 290 fantasy points, given his lack of receptions. If I take a player in the top 6-7, he has to at least have a chance to be the #1 overall running back. I don't see that possibility in Turner in ppr leagues.

 

[Imagine]

First Round (non-PPR)						 First Round (PPR)01.01 - Adrian Peterson					   01.01 - Adrian Peterson01.02 - Michael Turner						01.02 - Brian Westbrook01.03 - Brian Westbrook					   01.03 - Michael Turner01.04 - Maurice Jones-Drew					01.04 - Matt Forte01.05 - Matt Forte							01.05 - Maurice Jones-Drew01.06 - DeAngelo Williams					 01.06 - Chris Johnson01.07 - Chris Johnson						 01.07 - Steven Jackson01.08 - Steven Jackson						01.08 - DeAngelo Williams01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald					  01.09 - Larry Fitzgerald01.10 - Andre Johnson						 01.10 - Andre Johnson01.11 - Calvin Johnson						01.11 - Calvin Johnson01.12 - Drew Brees							01.12 - Drew Brees

OP updated. Fire away.

BusMan!! What a cool thread to start to help us transition to the non-fantasy football season!I wonder if you'd consider taking this a step further and maybe list your "initial, non-scientific" top 12 at EACH "standard" position? Or maybe top 6 for the "start one" positions like QB, TE, PK, Def, and the top dozen or so for the RB and WR positions? I'd like to hear what folks think, along with their "why's or why not's" on certain players. For example, Leroy's Aces reply to your initial post explained why he thought Michael Turner's schedule next year would have such a huge effect on his numbers. I thought that was a cool analysis. I know, I know, we're 6 months away from having any real data, but I love this topic and am kinda hoping you'll take it to the next level!! Thanks!

 

[thatguy]

Given that Turner had 377 regular season carries, 1699 yards and 17 TDs, he is likely to regress to the mean in all 3 categories. He is also more likely to get injured via the curse of 370 (plus his playoff carries add up, too). His catches are not likely to increase much in 2009, as there is no reason for him to get more catches. They simply throw to the WRs, Norwood and other players in that offense, which is likely to be unchanged.

Atlanta's schedule was quite easy in 2008, but they now play the NFC East, and AFC East in 2009 and Chicago intraconference (vs. NFC North and AFC West in 2008), so that is 4-5 tough rushing match ups, so a tougher schedule is likely. He won't be playing the Lions, Chiefs or Rams in 2009, where he totaled 532 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games.

He also had 4 games of under 6 points (PPR), which is a lot of variance and a big negative for a first round pick.

On the plus side, he did have a solid yards per carry, but I could not take him in the top 6 or 7 in a point per catch league, as it would appear impossible for him to exceed 290 fantasy points, given his lack of receptions. If I take a player in the top 6-7, he has to at least have a chance to be the #1 overall running back. I don't see that possibility in Turner in ppr leagues.

I think there is plenty of reason to get him more involved in the passing game, as I stated in an earlier thread. Getting him the ball on some screen plays or dump offs on first and second down will add more unpredictability to their offense. As it is, defenses know that if Turner is on the field, he's not getting the ball unless it's handed off to him. That is never a good thing if you ask me - there should at least be the possibility that the RB will get the ball through the air, to keep defenses honest. Turner is pretty good in space for as big as he is and I really think Atlanta would be wise to get him about 30 receptions next season.

 

[Imagine]

Given that Turner had 377 regular season carries, 1699 yards and 17 TDs, he is likely to regress to the mean in all 3 categories. He is also more likely to get injured via the curse of 370 (plus his playoff carries add up, too). His catches are not likely to increase much in 2009, as there is no reason for him to get more catches. They simply throw to the WRs, Norwood and other players in that offense, which is likely to be unchanged.

Atlanta's schedule was quite easy in 2008, but they now play the NFC East, and AFC East in 2009 and Chicago intraconference (vs. NFC North and AFC West in 2008), so that is 4-5 tough rushing match ups, so a tougher schedule is likely. He won't be playing the Lions, Chiefs or Rams in 2009, where he totaled 532 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games.

He also had 4 games of under 6 points (PPR), which is a lot of variance and a big negative for a first round pick.

On the plus side, he did have a solid yards per carry, but I could not take him in the top 6 or 7 in a point per catch league, as it would appear impossible for him to exceed 290 fantasy points, given his lack of receptions. If I take a player in the top 6-7, he has to at least have a chance to be the #1 overall running back. I don't see that possibility in Turner in ppr leagues.

I think there is plenty of reason to get him more involved in the passing game, as I stated in an earlier thread. Getting him the ball on some screen plays or dump offs on first and second down will add more unpredictability to their offense. As it is, defenses know that if Turner is on the field, he's not getting the ball unless it's handed off to him. That is never a good thing if you ask me - there should at least be the possibility that the RB will get the ball through the air, to keep defenses honest. Turner is pretty good in space for as big as he is and I really think Atlanta would be wise to get him about 30 receptions next season.

Bump