2009 Redraft ADP (1 Viewer)

[BusMan]

BusMan!! What a cool thread to start to help us transition to the non-fantasy football season!I wonder if you'd consider taking this a step further and maybe list your "initial, non-scientific" top 12 at EACH "standard" position? Or maybe top 6 for the "start one" positions like QB, TE, PK, Def, and the top dozen or so for the RB and WR positions? I'd like to hear what folks think, along with their "why's or why not's" on certain players. For example, Leroy's Aces reply to your initial post explained why he thought Michael Turner's schedule next year would have such a huge effect on his numbers. I thought that was a cool analysis. I know, I know, we're 6 months away from having any real data, but I love this topic and am kinda hoping you'll take it to the next level!! Thanks!

football newbie,I'm down with this approach. My current plan is to try to knock out the first three rounds of ADP. Then I'll move on to positional lists. Feel free to post your own and I'll be sure to comment. I'm no expert though---I started this thread to get access to the collective (impressive) knowledge of the SP.BusMan

 

[Islander]

Great thread! Thanks BusMan. It is much better when we focus on predicting ADP than arguing about various opinions in rankings.

Regarding M Turner, I am in thatguy's camp. I am almost certain the Falcons will make it public knowledge during the offseason that they intend to involve Turner in the passing offense. Therefore, projections in July of Turner's number of receptions will include a significant increase in 2009 compared to 2008.

Regarding the number of carries, people will knock down the number of his carries with good cause, for reasons mentioned earlier in this thread.

Regarding YPC, I think it's a mixed bag. You could say he will revert to the mean, he will have a tougher schedule, etc. True. However M Ryan's development means defenses will be less likely to stack the line. I don't mean to say that Turner = LT of the good old days, but several good RBs had an increase in YPC when their QB improved - like what happened to LT's average per carry when his QB developed.

Number of TDs could revert to the mean, but again if Falcons score more TDs in total, Turner might have a small share of the total, but his own total might not go down much.

I foresee quite a bit of excitement over the Falcons' up and coming offense during the offseason and in non-PPR I am pretty confident Turner's ADP will be RB2. He might not be the most solid RB2 ever, but when you look at what other options are, I think he's safe to be RB2 based on ADP.

Westbrook: injuries in 2008 and before, lack of production in 2008 playoffs will stay in people's mind. Getting up there and age although wear & tear is mild relative to his age.

DW + CJ: RBBC means no RB2.

MJD: has a legitimate shot at RB2 but lack of fire power in Jax's offense will prevent him from getting up there. I would not be surprised to see him one notch above Westbrook unlike where BusMan currently has him. F Taylor's possible departure could trigger some hype in favor of MJD.

Forte: similar situation to Turner, but worse off in almost all aspects except the passing game

 

[puckalicious]

Given that Turner had 377 regular season carries, 1699 yards and 17 TDs, he is likely to regress to the mean in all 3 categories. He is also more likely to get injured via the curse of 370 (plus his playoff carries add up, too). His catches are not likely to increase much in 2009, as there is no reason for him to get more catches. They simply throw to the WRs, Norwood and other players in that offense, which is likely to be unchanged.

Atlanta's schedule was quite easy in 2008, but they now play the NFC East, and AFC East in 2009 and Chicago intraconference (vs. NFC North and AFC West in 2008), so that is 4-5 tough rushing match ups, so a tougher schedule is likely. He won't be playing the Lions, Chiefs or Rams in 2009, where he totaled 532 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games.

He also had 4 games of under 6 points (PPR), which is a lot of variance and a big negative for a first round pick.

On the plus side, he did have a solid yards per carry, but I could not take him in the top 6 or 7 in a point per catch league, as it would appear impossible for him to exceed 290 fantasy points, given his lack of receptions. If I take a player in the top 6-7, he has to at least have a chance to be the #1 overall running back. I don't see that possibility in Turner in ppr leagues.

Everyone with a 369 carry RB can all breathe a sigh of relief. You avoided the dreaded curse!!

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Given that Turner had 377 regular season carries, 1699 yards and 17 TDs, he is likely to regress to the mean in all 3 categories. He is also more likely to get injured via the curse of 370 (plus his playoff carries add up, too). His catches are not likely to increase much in 2009, as there is no reason for him to get more catches. They simply throw to the WRs, Norwood and other players in that offense, which is likely to be unchanged.

Atlanta's schedule was quite easy in 2008, but they now play the NFC East, and AFC East in 2009 and Chicago intraconference (vs. NFC North and AFC West in 2008), so that is 4-5 tough rushing match ups, so a tougher schedule is likely. He won't be playing the Lions, Chiefs or Rams in 2009, where he totaled 532 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games.

He also had 4 games of under 6 points (PPR), which is a lot of variance and a big negative for a first round pick.

On the plus side, he did have a solid yards per carry, but I could not take him in the top 6 or 7 in a point per catch league, as it would appear impossible for him to exceed 290 fantasy points, given his lack of receptions. If I take a player in the top 6-7, he has to at least have a chance to be the #1 overall running back. I don't see that possibility in Turner in ppr leagues.

I think there is plenty of reason to get him more involved in the passing game, as I stated in an earlier thread. Getting him the ball on some screen plays or dump offs on first and second down will add more unpredictability to their offense. As it is, defenses know that if Turner is on the field, he's not getting the ball unless it's handed off to him. That is never a good thing if you ask me - there should at least be the possibility that the RB will get the ball through the air, to keep defenses honest. Turner is pretty good in space for as big as he is and I really think Atlanta would be wise to get him about 30 receptions next season.

I agree with what you are saying and would gladly project Turner to 30 catches next year...if you worked for the Falcons. I see this every year, a player with crappy catch numbers and everyone projects him to get increased receptions - because he "should". See Willie Parker heading into 2007, he was a top 6-7 overall pick off a record-setting season, with career highs in yards and TDs. His only area of issue was receptions, with just 31 in 2006. He finished 2007 with only 2 TDs (talk about regression to the mean) and only 23 catches. I realize you will say it is apples and oranges, but a lot of the 2007 pre-season hype was about Parker developing into the "next LT" a well-rounded 3 down back, yada, yada, yada. Guess what? It didn't happen. He didn't stay in on 3rd down. Same thing with Turner. Why would he all of sudden go from effectively NO catches to 30? Was Jerious Norwood ineffective? No, he was excellent in his role. Did the offense struggle? No, it did well with Turner not catching passes. Will Brandon Jacobs all of a sudden start to catch passes, too? Jamal Lewis? No, no, no. As to the guy laughing at the curse of 370, you can disregard it and take the Larry Johnsons of the world off of career-high 400 carry workloads (just like Turner) and then take last place in your league with him on your team, all while crying why me, why me? <_<

This is a little dated now: (courtesy of Footballoutsiders.com)

Player Year Carries Comments

J. Anderson 1998 410 Blew out ACL in 1999, mediocre in 2000

J. Wilder 1984 407 As good in 1985, but limited by injuries afterwards

E. Dickerson 1986 404 The Randy Johnson of running backs

E. George 2000 403 Fell from 3.7 to 3.0 yd/carry, replacement level since

G. Riggs 1985 397 Fell from 4.3 to 3.9 yd/carry in 1986, part-time player from 1987 on

R. Williams 2003 392 We'll never know now, will we?

T. Davis 1998 392 Blew out ACL in 1999, more aborted comebacks than The Monkees

B. Foster 1992 390 9 games in 1993, 11 games in 1994, then gone

E. Dickerson 1983 390 Ran better than he enunciates

E. Dickerson 1988 388 First full Colts season; finally broke down in 1990

E. James 2000 387 Blew out ACL in 2001, hasn't been same since return

J. Lewis 2003 387 Uh-oh

Player Year Carries Comments

R. Williams 2002 383 Will forever be seen as a fluke year

W. Payton 1984 381 ED-like exception, still great until 1987

M. Allen 1985 380 Fell from 4.6 to 3.6 yd/carry

E. Dickerson 1984 379 The all-time record, 2105 yards

G. Rogers 1981 378 Injuries in 1982-1983, poor 1984 followed by two-year Redskins comeback

E. Smith 1995 377 Fell from 4.7 to 3.7 yd/carry and never topped 4.2 yd/carry again

J. Bettis 1997 375 Fell from 4.4 to 3.8 yd/carry, didn't top 4.0 again until fluky 2001

J. Riggins 1983 375 Fine in 1984, but battled injuries in 1985 and retired

E. Campbell 1980 373 Fell from 5.2 to 3.8 yd/carry, broke down so bad he can hardly walk now

E. Smith 1992 373 Still great until season listed above

L. Tomlinson 2002 372 So far no effects, actually better in 2003 with fewer carries

C. Okoye 1989 370 Part-time player by the following year, done after 1992

 

[Islander]

I agree with what you are saying and would gladly project Turner to 30 catches next year...if you worked for the Falcons. I see this every year, a player with crappy catch numbers and everyone projects him to get increased receptions - because he "should". See Willie Parker heading into 2007, he was a top 6-7 overall pick off a record-setting season, with career highs in yards and TDs. His only area of issue was receptions, with just 31 in 2006. He finished 2007 with only 2 TDs (talk about regression to the mean) and only 23 catches. I realize you will say it is apples and oranges, but a lot of the 2007 pre-season hype was about Parker developing into the "next LT" a well-rounded 3 down back, yada, yada, yada. Guess what? It didn't happen. He didn't stay in on 3rd down. Same thing with Turner. Why would he all of sudden go from effectively NO catches to 30? Was Jerious Norwood ineffective? No, he was excellent in his role. Did the offense struggle? No, it did well with Turner not catching passes. Will Brandon Jacobs all of a sudden start to catch passes, too? Jamal Lewis? No, no, no.

Every year? Yes, this is apples and oranges here. It's not like there have been tons of RBs in Turner's situation: first season as established starter, many carries, only 6 receptions, and the RB has adequate receiving abilities. How can we predict the number of receptions in year 2? We don't have much to go by in the history. Turner's situation is rare.Also, increasing receptions when you had 31 is not the same as increasing receptions when you had 6. I would not use Parker as a comparison here.

In my humble opinion, B Jacobs is not as good a receiver as Turner. J Lewis is averaging almost 30 rec per year during his career so bringing up his name in the Turner discussion goes against your argument. I could easily see Turner having Lewis-type number of receptions so about 30.

If this happens, assuming yards per catch are more or less equal to twice yards per carry, Turner could go down to 320 carries (down 50 carries) and still produce the same yardage (up 25 receptions).

 

[Leroy's Aces]

I agree with what you are saying and would gladly project Turner to 30 catches next year...if you worked for the Falcons. I see this every year, a player with crappy catch numbers and everyone projects him to get increased receptions - because he "should". See Willie Parker heading into 2007, he was a top 6-7 overall pick off a record-setting season, with career highs in yards and TDs. His only area of issue was receptions, with just 31 in 2006. He finished 2007 with only 2 TDs (talk about regression to the mean) and only 23 catches. I realize you will say it is apples and oranges, but a lot of the 2007 pre-season hype was about Parker developing into the "next LT" a well-rounded 3 down back, yada, yada, yada. Guess what? It didn't happen. He didn't stay in on 3rd down. Same thing with Turner. Why would he all of sudden go from effectively NO catches to 30? Was Jerious Norwood ineffective? No, he was excellent in his role. Did the offense struggle? No, it did well with Turner not catching passes. Will Brandon Jacobs all of a sudden start to catch passes, too? Jamal Lewis? No, no, no.

Every year? Yes, this is apples and oranges here. It's not like there have been tons of RBs in Turner's situation: first season as established starter, many carries, only 6 receptions, and the RB has adequate receiving abilities. How can we predict the number of receptions in year 2? We don't have much to go by in the history. Turner's situation is rare.Also, increasing receptions when you had 31 is not the same as increasing receptions when you had 6. I would not use Parker as a comparison here.

In my humble opinion, B Jacobs is not as good a receiver as Turner. J Lewis is averaging almost 30 rec per year during his career so bringing up his name in the Turner discussion goes against your argument. I could easily see Turner having Lewis-type number of receptions so about 30.

If this happens, assuming yards per catch are more or less equal to twice yards per carry, Turner could go down to 320 carries (down 50 carries) and still produce the same yardage (up 25 receptions).

The is nothing the Falcons have done that would give the slightest indication as to changing the offense. It is really quite simple. If they do not change the offense, Turner will not get more targets, not be in on 3rd down and not have more catches. In the minds of the GM and the Falcons coaches that evaluate RB talent and watch their players every single day, they chose in 2008 to throw to Jerious Norwood and not to Turner, to the point of Turner having single-digit catches. They had a top 10 offense, why would they change it? To get Turner more catches and overwork him even more??? No one has given a single reason why Turner will have more catches. And yes, EVERY YEAR, in 2008: A lot of fantasy owners thought Peterson would have more catches this year, too, because he "has the talent" or "showed flashes" or that "they should just throw to him more". He had 18 catches in 2007 and 21 in 2008.

To expect more than 12-15 catches from Turner (I will grant an upward regression to the mean) is probably wishful thinking. They simply do not use him as a receiver.

 

[Islander]

I agree with what you are saying and would gladly project Turner to 30 catches next year...if you worked for the Falcons. I see this every year, a player with crappy catch numbers and everyone projects him to get increased receptions - because he "should". See Willie Parker heading into 2007, he was a top 6-7 overall pick off a record-setting season, with career highs in yards and TDs. His only area of issue was receptions, with just 31 in 2006. He finished 2007 with only 2 TDs (talk about regression to the mean) and only 23 catches. I realize you will say it is apples and oranges, but a lot of the 2007 pre-season hype was about Parker developing into the "next LT" a well-rounded 3 down back, yada, yada, yada. Guess what? It didn't happen. He didn't stay in on 3rd down. Same thing with Turner. Why would he all of sudden go from effectively NO catches to 30? Was Jerious Norwood ineffective? No, he was excellent in his role. Did the offense struggle? No, it did well with Turner not catching passes. Will Brandon Jacobs all of a sudden start to catch passes, too? Jamal Lewis? No, no, no.

Every year? Yes, this is apples and oranges here. It's not like there have been tons of RBs in Turner's situation: first season as established starter, many carries, only 6 receptions, and the RB has adequate receiving abilities. How can we predict the number of receptions in year 2? We don't have much to go by in the history. Turner's situation is rare.Also, increasing receptions when you had 31 is not the same as increasing receptions when you had 6. I would not use Parker as a comparison here.

In my humble opinion, B Jacobs is not as good a receiver as Turner. J Lewis is averaging almost 30 rec per year during his career so bringing up his name in the Turner discussion goes against your argument. I could easily see Turner having Lewis-type number of receptions so about 30.

If this happens, assuming yards per catch are more or less equal to twice yards per carry, Turner could go down to 320 carries (down 50 carries) and still produce the same yardage (up 25 receptions).

The is nothing the Falcons have done that would give the slightest indication as to changing the offense. It is really quite simple. If they do not change the offense, Turner will not get more targets, not be in on 3rd down and not have more catches. In the minds of the GM and the Falcons coaches that evaluate RB talent and watch their players every single day, they chose in 2008 to throw to Jerious Norwood and not to Turner, to the point of Turner having single-digit catches. They had a top 10 offense, why would they change it? To get Turner more catches and overwork him even more??? No one has given a single reason why Turner will have more catches. And yes, EVERY YEAR, in 2008: A lot of fantasy owners thought Peterson would have more catches this year, too, because he "has the talent" or "showed flashes" or that "they should just throw to him more". He had 18 catches in 2007 and 21 in 2008.

To expect more than 12-15 catches from Turner (I will grant an upward regression to the mean) is probably wishful thinking. They simply do not use him as a receiver.

If every top 10 offense decided to make no change for the only reason that they are already top 10, then they would almost all drop out of the top 10. Let's agree to disagree and make a friendly bet. I take over 13.5 receptions and you take 13.5 receptions.

The reason why Turner will have more catches is because he has decent receiving skills and because it brings an extra dimension to the Falcons' offense when he's on the field.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

I agree with what you are saying and would gladly project Turner to 30 catches next year...if you worked for the Falcons. I see this every year, a player with crappy catch numbers and everyone projects him to get increased receptions - because he "should". See Willie Parker heading into 2007, he was a top 6-7 overall pick off a record-setting season, with career highs in yards and TDs. His only area of issue was receptions, with just 31 in 2006. He finished 2007 with only 2 TDs (talk about regression to the mean) and only 23 catches. I realize you will say it is apples and oranges, but a lot of the 2007 pre-season hype was about Parker developing into the "next LT" a well-rounded 3 down back, yada, yada, yada. Guess what? It didn't happen. He didn't stay in on 3rd down. Same thing with Turner. Why would he all of sudden go from effectively NO catches to 30? Was Jerious Norwood ineffective? No, he was excellent in his role. Did the offense struggle? No, it did well with Turner not catching passes. Will Brandon Jacobs all of a sudden start to catch passes, too? Jamal Lewis? No, no, no.

Every year? Yes, this is apples and oranges here. It's not like there have been tons of RBs in Turner's situation: first season as established starter, many carries, only 6 receptions, and the RB has adequate receiving abilities. How can we predict the number of receptions in year 2? We don't have much to go by in the history. Turner's situation is rare.Also, increasing receptions when you had 31 is not the same as increasing receptions when you had 6. I would not use Parker as a comparison here.

In my humble opinion, B Jacobs is not as good a receiver as Turner. J Lewis is averaging almost 30 rec per year during his career so bringing up his name in the Turner discussion goes against your argument. I could easily see Turner having Lewis-type number of receptions so about 30.

If this happens, assuming yards per catch are more or less equal to twice yards per carry, Turner could go down to 320 carries (down 50 carries) and still produce the same yardage (up 25 receptions).

The is nothing the Falcons have done that would give the slightest indication as to changing the offense. It is really quite simple. If they do not change the offense, Turner will not get more targets, not be in on 3rd down and not have more catches. In the minds of the GM and the Falcons coaches that evaluate RB talent and watch their players every single day, they chose in 2008 to throw to Jerious Norwood and not to Turner, to the point of Turner having single-digit catches. They had a top 10 offense, why would they change it? To get Turner more catches and overwork him even more??? No one has given a single reason why Turner will have more catches. And yes, EVERY YEAR, in 2008: A lot of fantasy owners thought Peterson would have more catches this year, too, because he "has the talent" or "showed flashes" or that "they should just throw to him more". He had 18 catches in 2007 and 21 in 2008.

To expect more than 12-15 catches from Turner (I will grant an upward regression to the mean) is probably wishful thinking. They simply do not use him as a receiver.

If every top 10 offense decided to make no change for the only reason that they are already top 10, then they would almost all drop out of the top 10. Let's agree to disagree and make a friendly bet. I take over 13.5 receptions and you take 13.5 receptions.

The reason why Turner will have more catches is because he has decent receiving skills and because it brings an extra dimension to the Falcons' offense when he's on the field.

How about I will take Turner is worse than RB7 in PPR scoring? RB1-RB7 you win, and RB8 or worse, I win. He was RB4 this year, so that is a required drop of 4 spots for me to win. My primary assertion is that Turner is not worth the high draft pick he will command, as I feel he maxed out with carries, TDs, and touches in 2008 while remaining injury-free, and the lack of receptions is only a part of that. You stated he will be RB2 overall, so this should be a no-brainer for you. Either way, it's all good.

 

[Islander]

How about I will take Turner is worse than RB7 in PPR scoring? RB1-RB7 you win, and RB8 or worse, I win. He was RB4 this year, so that is a required drop of 4 spots for me to win. My primary assertion is that Turner is not worth the high draft pick he will command, as I feel he maxed out with carries, TDs, and touches in 2008 while remaining injury-free, and the lack of receptions is only a part of that. You stated he will be RB2 overall, so this should be a no-brainer for you. Either way, it's all good.

Are you backtracking on me man? First off I think his ADP will be RB2 in non-PPR. I do not participate in PPR leagues so I am not qualified to make a statement on those leagues . Second I made no comment about where I will rank Turner myself. I am predicting his ADP. I have not made my rankings yet - I might put him RB2 or I might not. Not sure yet.

Third, if you think Adrian Peterson will be RB1, would you take a bet that if he finishes RB1 you win, otherwise you lose? Of course not, nobody has more than 50% chance of finishing RB1 regardless how good they are. So even if I thought Turner was RB2 I would not make a bet on RB1-RB7 or some other kind of range. It would simply mean that other than Peterson there is no single RB I would take ahead of Turner.

I think the appropriate friendly bet if I thought Turner was RB2 would be to ask you to pick any RB you want besides Peterson and Turner and let Turner go head to head against your guy. This would imply 50/50 odds in theory.

I think if we go back throughout history, I am not sure that the RB2 finishes in the top 7 a lot more than 50% of the time and in addition, whoever is RB2 in 2009 will be a much weaker RB2 than Peterson was in 2008. If RB2 finishes RB7, it does not mean that the particular RB2 was a bad prediction, it just means he had a higher chance of finishing high than others ranked lower.

For example (purely made up numbers)

Probability of finishing top 5 based on ADP

RB1 = 50%

RB2 = 45%

RB3 = 40%

etc.

It's just one year but for what it's worth, here are the 2008 ADP and final rankings

RB1 LT finish RB7

RB2 A Peterson finish RB3

RB3 Westbrook finish RB10

RB4 S Jackson finish RB13

RB5 Addai finish RB39

RB6 MB3 RB16

RB7 Gore RB14

RB8 Portis RB8

RB9 Lynch RB15

RB10 LJ RB29

In any random year, if you tell me with my second overall pick the guy will finish RB7, I might take it. It's not bad. Of course I would love for RB2 to finish second but you don't know in advance so you have to go by probabilities, not after the fact certainties.

Not sure if I am being clear or confusing with my post. Sorry!

 

[joefootball]

I think Leroy's point was that Turner didnt catch the ball this year and wont catch it next year. Their offense is set up where Norwood is the 3rd down back and catches most of the balls coming out of the backfield. I watched the majority of Falcons games this year and Turner came out most 3rd downs and wasnt thrown to at all. I agree Turner will not catch many balls at all again next year. I got your Parker comparison because I remember in WCOFF the guy right after me took him at 7 and I thought to myself how can you take a RB in ppr who didnt catch any balls and just came off career highs in yards and tds. Turner is the same scenario, great back this year and did very well in the yardage and td department but when you are talking ppr leagues I would much rather take a back who will catch more than 10 balls. Turner will never be a pass catching rb its just not in his cards, Norwood is very good in that role.

 

[BusMan]

I'd like to restate that Turner would've still be RB2 with a 10% dip in production.

 

[joefootball]

I think Turner is a great runner and worthy of a 1st rounder in most all leagues. I will however caution to those in ppr's players like Turner are much more likely to disapoint because of the lack of receptions. I just dont see him being a factor in the passing game and thats big to me in a ppr. I think his carries, yards and tds this year are a peak for him. Expecting anything more than that would be irresponsible in my opinion. I would love to have Turner on my team but I wont be taking him in a ppr over guys like S Jackson, Westy, Forte, AP, MJD. So he he still sits in the middle or back half of the 1st round but just know you arent getting a back who catches the ball.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Non-PPR

1) AP - the safest guy for this pick

2) DeAngelo - everyone is saying he can't sustain the TDs, but don't forget this guy was also a yardage machine

3) Stephen Jackson - an animal when he plays, and if Rams go with the 'bama OT at #2 overall, he'll have more room to run

4) MJD - this guy gets knocked every preseason, it seems like he's finally earned some respect

5) Brandon Jacobs - maybe higher if Ward is gone

6) Turner - gut feeling says the '08 Falcons = '07 Browns

7) CJ3 - he'll only get better and TN will continue to figure out ways to get him the ball in space

8) Portis - all this guy does is put up top season after top season

9) Gore - never gets enough love, similar to MJD

10) Forte - pass catching ability makes him productive, even if Bears regress

11) Marion Barber - huge disappointment in '08, Cowboys will make major changes, at least to play calling, and it'll be back to basics with the running game and Barber leading the way

12) Calvin Johnson - I know everyone has Fitz-love right now, myself included, but we can't forget how good Megatron was with Bebe's Kids throwing the ball to him. ANYTHING is an improvement.

PPR

1) ADP

2) SJax

3) MJD

4) CJ3

5) DeAngelo

6) Forte

7) Gore

8) Calvin Johnson

9) Fitz

10) AJ

11) Marion Barber III

12) Jacobs