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2010 FBG Post Season Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter BassNBrew
- Start date
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
If we make the SD/Minn super bowl, it'd be your Gates, Taylor, and Lewis against my Sproles, Harvin, and Kleinsasser.Survived this week as well and will have 8 players scoring for me next week from this grouphilip Rivers LaDainian Tomlinson Vincent Jackson Antonio Gates Ray Rice Brad SmithBrett Favre Adrian Peterson Chester Taylor Sidney Rice Greg Lewis Felix Jones Steve Breaston
I will guess that 3800 of the remaining alive teams have already been elimnated
3800 out of 4000 are eliminated??!!?
Technically 4005 have no chance - they just do not know it yet.
The only teams that are mathematically eliminated are teams that have only Cincinnati, New England, Green Bay, and Philadelphia players on their roster. Everyone else still has a mathematical chance of moving on.
But not necessarily a mathematical chance of winning. If Team X has all the same (live) players that Team Y has (and possibly more), and Team X holds the first tiebreaker over Team Y, then Team Y cannot win.
This team, for example, can't win it all, even if Dallas Clark and Ray Rice score a million points each week.
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4 of 12 teams out of the playoffs. I'll guess that 10% of the original entries had one of these two teams going to the Bowl. That's roughly 900 dead teams. 90% of those teams likely advanced so I'll reduce that number to 800. I suspect 1/4 of the original entries didn't grasp the concept of the contest....roughly 2200. Probably 2/3's of those are gone leaving roughly 700. 700 + 800 = 1500 entires mathmatically eliminated.
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JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Let's see...there are 16 possible combinations for the Super Bowl. Within each of those, the "main" combinations (Indy-NO, Indy-Min, etc) will have lots of iterations, so many of them will be mathematically alive. However, some of the remaining teams picked the wrong teams (GB and NE probably the biggest impact). So...I'll guess 1500 of the remaining 4000 are already mathematically eliminated.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
I would guess that over 50% have no reasonable chance at winning but could win if the Colts play the Vikes in the Super Bowl and Garcon outscores Wayne, Addai and the Colts defense combined and no Vike scores more than 3 pointsl, for example. Strictly by the numbers I'd guess between 30-35% are currently without any hope at all.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Your guess that 10% of the original entries had one of the eliminated teams going to the Super Bowl is probably not far off, but what makes you think that 90% of them survived this week? That sounds crazy. The overall survival rate was ~45%.
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I know people like crunching the numbers, but am I the only one that thinks we should let it play out without telling people how impossible it is that they will win?
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I'll guess 1071-QG
HULLOBUDMAN
Footballguy
I second this. I really enjoyed this weekend and would like to enjoy next weekend too. I probably am one of the teams eliminated but would rather not know.
Wadsworth
Footballguy
I agree. It's like when people tried to tell me there wasn't a good reason for my wife going on all those vacations with the pool boy. Obviously they were just scouting better pool cleaning products at all those exotic locations where, hello, they have great pool. It's better to just ignore it.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Well, there's some interesting stuff. I was actually quite glad that Rodgers had such a big game since I made the cut. Bringing some "dead entries walking" was pretty helpful IMO.
Just for fun, here's the survival percentage for each of the 12 starting QBs:
Warner 1,300 out of 1,669 still alive (77.89%)
Rodgers 2,526 out of 4,163 still alive (60.68%)
Palmer 220 out of 389 still alive (56.56%)
McNabb 689 out of 1,241 still alive (55.52%)
Brady 817 out of 1,503 still alive (54.36%)
Sanchez 154 out of 286 still alive (53.85%)
Romo 1,677 out of 3,229 still alive (51.94%)
Flacco 462 out of 932 still alive (49.57%)
Rivers 1,735 out of 4,179 still alive (41.52%)
Manning 1,845 out of 4820 still alive (38.28%)
Favre 730 out of 2,241 still alive (32.57%)
Brees 823 out of 2,630 still alive (31.29%)
And here for some sort of comparison is the survival percentage for each of the 13 (possibly) starting PK:
Cundiff 384 out of 630 still alive (60.95%)
Rackers 434 out of 745 still alive (58.26%)
Feely 156 out of 287 still alive (54.36%)
Graham 215 out of 411 still alive (52.31%)
Suisham 1041 out of 2046 still alive (50.88%)
Crosby 610 out of 1,349 still alive (45.22%)
Akers 216 out of 483 still alive (44.72%)
Gostkowski 273 out of 648 still alive (42.13%)
Stover 312 out of 902 still alive (34.59%)
Hartley 280 out of 938 still alive (29.85%)
Kaeding 477 out of 1598 still alive (29.85%)
Longwell 273 out of 958 still alive (28.50%)
Vinatieri 85 out of 443 still alive (19.19%)
-QG
Just for fun, here's the survival percentage for each of the 12 starting QBs:
Warner 1,300 out of 1,669 still alive (77.89%)
Rodgers 2,526 out of 4,163 still alive (60.68%)
Palmer 220 out of 389 still alive (56.56%)
McNabb 689 out of 1,241 still alive (55.52%)
Brady 817 out of 1,503 still alive (54.36%)
Sanchez 154 out of 286 still alive (53.85%)
Romo 1,677 out of 3,229 still alive (51.94%)
Flacco 462 out of 932 still alive (49.57%)
Rivers 1,735 out of 4,179 still alive (41.52%)
Manning 1,845 out of 4820 still alive (38.28%)
Favre 730 out of 2,241 still alive (32.57%)
Brees 823 out of 2,630 still alive (31.29%)
And here for some sort of comparison is the survival percentage for each of the 13 (possibly) starting PK:
Cundiff 384 out of 630 still alive (60.95%)
Rackers 434 out of 745 still alive (58.26%)
Feely 156 out of 287 still alive (54.36%)
Graham 215 out of 411 still alive (52.31%)
Suisham 1041 out of 2046 still alive (50.88%)
Crosby 610 out of 1,349 still alive (45.22%)
Akers 216 out of 483 still alive (44.72%)
Gostkowski 273 out of 648 still alive (42.13%)
Stover 312 out of 902 still alive (34.59%)
Hartley 280 out of 938 still alive (29.85%)
Kaeding 477 out of 1598 still alive (29.85%)
Longwell 273 out of 958 still alive (28.50%)
Vinatieri 85 out of 443 still alive (19.19%)
-QG
John Zaleski
Footballguy
I went through many teams that had 5 SD players and then looked to see if they had 5 DALL players, and vice-versa. There were hardly any. There are just a FEW of these that have 8+ guys for Week 2. Most will be eliminated this week because they have 5 or less players going. This guy has 11, but do McLain, L.Moore and Patrick really count? It will be interesting to see the sim this week. There were not many teams in this batch that had 8 or more players going Week 2.This was the only team that scared me. I have LT and VJ.. He has Gates and Sproles.
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Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Focusing in on this subset of QBs and kickers that were on bye in week one:10.00% of teams that took all five of these kickers survived (1/10)14.29% of teams that took exactly four of these kickers survived (3/21)18.92% of teams that took exactly three of these kickers survived (14/74)20.06% of teams that took exactly two of these kickers survived (143/713)35.39% of teams that took exactly one of these kickers survived (1082/3057)55.11% of teams that took none of these kickers survived (2770/5026)33.61% of teams that took all four of these quarterbacks survived (80/238)22.79% of teams that took exactly three of these quarterbacks survived (211/926)34.72% of teams that took exactly two of these quarterbacks survived (1127/3246)52.80% of teams that took exactly one of these quarterbacks survived (1926/3648)79.36% of teams that took none of these quarterbacks survived (669/843)
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
These are the teams that have 5+ players from each of SD and DAL. There may be one or two more but the querier cut off the end of the results so I'm not sure (specifically there are 11 live teams with 5+ Chargers that didn't get returned, so no idea if they also had 5+ Cowboys).100354100787101116102710103022103277103360
PantherPower
Footballguy
I was shocked to see how few teams had at least the big 4 of from the Colts (Manning, Wayne, Clark, Addai)
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
PantherPower said:
There were a lot of those, albeit most of them have been eliminated already.
I don't necessarily fall into either of these camps. I'm just interested in the mathematics of the thing. I've learned over the years that it's dang near impossible to have a set-it-and-forget-it-before-the-wildcard NFL playoff contest that isn't essentially decided (or at least down to just a small handful) before the Super Bowl even kicks off. [That's what gave rise to last season's format, which was not very popular.] Here's the answer:331 currently-live teams are mathematically eliminated by virtue of the fact that there is at least one other team with all the same players and the first tiebreaker advantage.There are other situations where a team might actually be mathematically eliminated, but in a more subtle way. For example, Team A has two players left: Manning and Rivers. Team B has Manning, Favre, and Brees. Team C has Rivers, Favre, and Brees. Both B and C have the tiebreaker over A. Team A could beat B, and Team A could beat C. But Team A can't beat both B and C in the Super Bowl. [thinking out loud]Well, hold on now. I guess it's possible that the Colts could beat the Chargers while Rivers outperforms Manning. This might allow Team A to advance while Team B is eliminated. Then Manning could outscore Favre+Brees in the SB, allowing Team A to beat Team C[/tol].Yeah, this is kind of complicated. Bottom line: at least 331 teams are mathematically eliminated. Maybe a few more, but probably not many more. And then, as Wadsworth points out, there are probably lots more teams that need some sequence of minor miracles to transpire in order for them to win. But that's OK.Ignoratio Elenchi said:I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.ConstruxBoy said:
OK, this is real ugly, but I show all these teams as having at least 5 Chargers and at least 5 Cowboys (so either there is something wrong with the querier or something wrong with this):Ignoratio Elenchi said:
Code:
+--------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+| team | bolts | boys |+--------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+| 100354 | RivePh00,SproDa00,JackVi00,GateAn00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,OgleKe00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 100787 | JackVi00,FloyMa00,GateAn00,WilsKr00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,AustMi00,HurdSa00,BennMa00,PhilJo00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 101116 | RivePh00,JackVi00,ManuBr00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,ChoiTa00,AustMi00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 102710 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,JackVi00,GateAn00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,WittJa00,dalxxx99 || 103022 | RivePh00,JackVi00,FloyMa00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 103277 | RivePh00,SproDa00,JackVi00,FloyMa00,GateAn00 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,JoneFe00,AustMi00,CrayPa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 103360 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,SproDa00,NaanLe00,KaedNa44 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,WittJa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 103560 | RivePh00,SproDa00,FloyMa00,GateAn00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,CrayPa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 103583 | RivePh00,SproDa00,JackVi00,GateAn00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | JoneFe00,ChoiTa00,CrayPa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 104046 | RivePh00,HestJa00,GateAn00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,WittJa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 104056 | RivePh00,JackVi00,FloyMa00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,JoneFe00,AustMi00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 104452 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,SproDa00,JackVi00,GateAn00 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,AustMi00,WittJa00,BennMa00,SuisSh44 || 105196 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,JackVi00,NaanLe00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,WillRo04,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 105356 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,HestJa00,JackVi00,ManuBr00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,OgleKe00,WittJa00,SuisSh44 || 105397 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,JackVi00,FloyMa00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,JoneFe00,AustMi00,dalxxx99 || 105646 | RivePh00,SproDa00,TolbMi00,FloyMa00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,WillRo04,HurdSa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 105847 | RivePh00,SproDa00,JackVi00,WilsKr00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,JoneFe00,AustMi00,dalxxx99 || 107597 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,JackVi00,GateAn00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,WittJa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108094 | SproDa00,TolbMi00,HestJa00,FloyMa00,NaanLe00,WilsKr00,ManuBr00,KaedNa44 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AustMi00,CrayPa00,HurdSa00,SuisSh44 || 108320 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,FloyMa00,GateAn00,KaedNa44 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,AustMi00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108433 | RivePh00,SproDa00,FloyMa00,NaanLe00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,ChoiTa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108546 | RivePh00,SproDa00,FloyMa00,GateAn00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,ChoiTa00,CrayPa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108643 | RivePh00,TomlLa00,JackVi00,GateAn00,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,AustMi00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108719 | RivePh00,JackVi00,GateAn00,KaedNa44,sdgxxx99 | RomoTo00,BarbMa01,AustMi00,WittJa00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 || 108748 | TolbMi00,HestJa00,NaanLe00,DaviCr00,WilsKr00,ManuBr00 | RomoTo00,JoneFe00,AndeDe01,AustMi00,HurdSa00,OgleKe00,BennMa00,PhilJo00,SuisSh44,dalxxx99 |+--------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------+
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Take a look at the post 4-6 below your post. Teams with players that actually played this week4end survived at a much higher rate than teams with players who didn't play. Therefore I assumed teams with alot of players that played this weekend survived at a better rate.Ignoratio Elenchi said:
PantherPower
Footballguy
You are right. I meant to say I'm shocked at how few teams are left that have those 4. (I am one of them)PantherPower said:There were a lot of those, albeit most of them have been eliminated already.
You are correct...it's real ugly concerning my chances to win or place in this contest. It would be nice if the quierer could go deeper than 5.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Injuries could come into play too.I don't necessarily fall into either of these camps. I'm just interested in the mathematics of the thing. I've learned over the years that it's dang near impossible to have a set-it-and-forget-it-before-the-wildcard NFL playoff contest that isn't essentially decided (or at least down to just a small handful) before the Super Bowl even kicks off. [That's what gave rise to last season's format, which was not very popular.] Here's the answer:331 currently-live teams are mathematically eliminated by virtue of the fact that there is at least one other team with all the same players and the first tiebreaker advantage.There are other situations where a team might actually be mathematically eliminated, but in a more subtle way. For example, Team A has two players left: Manning and Rivers. Team B has Manning, Favre, and Brees. Team C has Rivers, Favre, and Brees. Both B and C have the tiebreaker over A. Team A could beat B, and Team A could beat C. But Team A can't beat both B and C in the Super Bowl. [thinking out loud]Well, hold on now. I guess it's possible that the Colts could beat the Chargers while Rivers outperforms Manning. This might allow Team A to advance while Team B is eliminated. Then Manning could outscore Favre+Brees in the SB, allowing Team A to beat Team C[/tol].Yeah, this is kind of complicated. Bottom line: at least 331 teams are mathematically eliminated. Maybe a few more, but probably not many more. And then, as Wadsworth points out, there are probably lots more teams that need some sequence of minor miracles to transpire in order for them to win. But that's OK.Ignoratio Elenchi said:I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.ConstruxBoy said:
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Doug, you're likely right. The "problem" with the querier is that it only returns 100 results, regardless of how many there actually are. There is also the issue that I was thinking about it backwards, and so instead of focusing on the fact that it only returned 100/111 teams with 5+ Chargers, I should have focused on the fact that it only returned 100/260 teams with 5+ Cowboys. Note that I got the first seven that you came up with, and the rest that you added all come after #103456, which is the 100th team with 5+ Cowboys (the last one returned by the querier).Is that done on purpose to lighten the load on the servers or something? I seem to remember that last year it wasn't limited to the first 100, but I could be wrong about that. It's typically not an issue unless I want to do something more sophisticated like cross-referencing teams with 5+ players from two different teams. Any chance you could just make the whole database available as a download?
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Anything could come into play, but you can't mathematically eliminate a team because injuries might happen. Obviously 4012 of the remaining 4013 teams will be eliminated eventually, but it doesn't mean they're eliminated yet.Injuries could come into play too.I don't necessarily fall into either of these camps. I'm just interested in the mathematics of the thing. I've learned over the years that it's dang near impossible to have a set-it-and-forget-it-before-the-wildcard NFL playoff contest that isn't essentially decided (or at least down to just a small handful) before the Super Bowl even kicks off. [That's what gave rise to last season's format, which was not very popular.] Here's the answer:Ignoratio Elenchi said:I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.ConstruxBoy said:
331 currently-live teams are mathematically eliminated by virtue of the fact that there is at least one other team with all the same players and the first tiebreaker advantage.
There are other situations where a team might actually be mathematically eliminated, but in a more subtle way. For example, Team A has two players left: Manning and Rivers. Team B has Manning, Favre, and Brees. Team C has Rivers, Favre, and Brees. Both B and C have the tiebreaker over A. Team A could beat B, and Team A could beat C. But Team A can't beat both B and C in the Super Bowl. [thinking out loud]Well, hold on now. I guess it's possible that the Colts could beat the Chargers while Rivers outperforms Manning. This might allow Team A to advance while Team B is eliminated. Then Manning could outscore Favre+Brees in the SB, allowing Team A to beat Team C[/tol].
Yeah, this is kind of complicated.
Bottom line: at least 331 teams are mathematically eliminated. Maybe a few more, but probably not many more. And then, as Wadsworth points out, there are probably lots more teams that need some sequence of minor miracles to transpire in order for them to win. But that's OK.
thehornet
Footballguy
actually it does. Read Doug's post above regarding remaining players.Anything could come into play, but you can't mathematically eliminate a team because injuries might happen. Obviously 4012 of the remaining 4013 teams will be eliminated eventually, but it doesn't mean they're eliminated yet.Injuries could come into play too.I don't necessarily fall into either of these camps. I'm just interested in the mathematics of the thing. I've learned over the years that it's dang near impossible to have a set-it-and-forget-it-before-the-wildcard NFL playoff contest that isn't essentially decided (or at least down to just a small handful) before the Super Bowl even kicks off. [That's what gave rise to last season's format, which was not very popular.] Here's the answer:Ignoratio Elenchi said:I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.ConstruxBoy said:
331 currently-live teams are mathematically eliminated by virtue of the fact that there is at least one other team with all the same players and the first tiebreaker advantage.
There are other situations where a team might actually be mathematically eliminated, but in a more subtle way. For example, Team A has two players left: Manning and Rivers. Team B has Manning, Favre, and Brees. Team C has Rivers, Favre, and Brees. Both B and C have the tiebreaker over A. Team A could beat B, and Team A could beat C. But Team A can't beat both B and C in the Super Bowl. [thinking out loud]Well, hold on now. I guess it's possible that the Colts could beat the Chargers while Rivers outperforms Manning. This might allow Team A to advance while Team B is eliminated. Then Manning could outscore Favre+Brees in the SB, allowing Team A to beat Team C[/tol].
Yeah, this is kind of complicated.
Bottom line: at least 331 teams are mathematically eliminated. Maybe a few more, but probably not many more. And then, as Wadsworth points out, there are probably lots more teams that need some sequence of minor miracles to transpire in order for them to win. But that's OK.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
I suppose I could have written, "it doesn't mean they're all eliminated yet," but I thought that was immensely obvious in the context of the post.
Ignoratio Elenchi
Footballguy
Of course they did. That has no bearing on your calculation though. You said, "4 of 12 teams out of the playoffs. I'll guess that 10% of the original entries had one of these two teams going to the Bowl. That's roughly 900 dead teams. 90% of those teams likely advanced..." While it's somewhat vague what you're actually referring to, I assume you mean that of the original entries, 10% of them stocked up on players from (at least) one team that was eliminated this weekend. That is, they were banking on at least one of the Bengals, Patriots, Packers, or Eagles to go to the Super Bowl. I think you're right that probably about 10% of the original entries did so, but there is absolutely no way that anywhere close to 90% of them survived IMO. I'd be interested to see if Doug could put a number on that, though.
Maybe 90% is high but take a look at these stats.Warner 1,300 out of 1,669 still alive (77.89%)
Rodgers 2,526 out of 4,163 still alive (60.68%)
Palmer 220 out of 389 still alive (56.56%)
McNabb 689 out of 1,241 still alive (55.52%)
Brady 817 out of 1,503 still alive (54.36%)
Sanchez 154 out of 286 still alive (53.85%)
Romo 1,677 out of 3,229 still alive (51.94%)
Flacco 462 out of 932 still alive (49.57%)
----------------------------------------------------------
Rivers 1,735 out of 4,179 still alive (41.52%)
Manning 1,845 out of 4820 still alive (38.28%)
Favre 730 out of 2,241 still alive (32.57%)
Brees 823 out of 2,630 still alive (31.29%)
Cundiff 384 out of 630 still alive (60.95%)
Rackers 434 out of 745 still alive (58.26%)
Feely 156 out of 287 still alive (54.36%)
Graham 215 out of 411 still alive (52.31%)
Suisham 1041 out of 2046 still alive (50.88%)
Crosby 610 out of 1,349 still alive (45.22%)
Akers 216 out of 483 still alive (44.72%)
Gostkowski 273 out of 648 still alive (42.13%)
Stover 312 out of 902 still alive (34.59%)
---------------------------------------------------------
Hartley 280 out of 938 still alive (29.85%)
Kaeding 477 out of 1598 still alive (29.85%)
Longwell 273 out of 958 still alive (28.50%)
Vinatieri 85 out of 443 still alive (19.19%)
Well this strongly supports my argument. I assumed that stacking these players (week one players) in mass would mean high survivor percentage. After using the query to check some specific examples, I was very wrong.
Using Rodgers/Grant/Jennings/Driver/Finley
Survival rate for ALL teams: 45.11 percent
Survival rate for teams with these players: 22.22 percent
Survival Rate Overall Contest Survival Rate
Total teams with these players 153
Still Alive 34 22.22 45.11
Pat/Bengals/Eagles combos look even worse. I stand corrected.
John Zaleski
Footballguy
Thanks for doing this.....25 teams... Here's what they have for Week 2.. I broke it down to players that have a realistic chance of scoring more than 2 points....11 players -108433 - will advance, but no LT/VJ/AG for SB... doubt it can win with that.9 players - 107597/105196 - solid teams8 players - nine of these teams. one has 12 with 4 zeros, one has 16/8, another with 11/3. I'll be surprised if these teams do not make the cut.One of these teams has 5/6 players on four teams, SD/BALT/DALL/AZ7 players - 4 teams...slim chance6 players - 3 teams... slimmer5 players - 4 teams ... no chance4 players - 2 teams... bye bye
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
I have 3* - I consciously left Wayne off as one of my 6, mainly to spread that money elsewhere. I thought Clark was likely the better/surer play to have a monster game. * - of the big 4 Colts. I also have Garcon, Colts Defense, and Baskett - the only such entry to have these 6 still alive.-QGPantherPower said:
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QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Saints big 5: Brees, Thomas, Bush, Coltson, Henderson: 0 out of 10Colts 'big' 5: Manning, Addai, Wayne, Clark, Garcon: 4 out of 89
Vikings big 5:Favre, Peterson, Rice, Harvin, Shiancoe: 4 out of 72
Chargers big 5: Rivers, Tomlinson, Gates, VJax, Floyd: 6 out of 78
Cards big 5 (no Boldin due to injury: Warner, Hightower, Wells, Fitzgerald, Breaston: 5 out of 17
Cowboys 5: Romo, Witten, Austin, Jones, Barber: 30 out of 151
Those zeroes add up no matter what way you stack 'em.
But it's the gamble you really have to take if you are going to get there at the end and actually win the thing.
Isolating this play makes it look bad - but really you just have to be shrewer with the teams you don't stack. It does seem very risk, though, to stack a bye week team compared to a wildcard team.
-QG
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Thick of this way. When you stack 5 Packers, you are going to have scores only from 2 of them. 3 of them give you 0, which is dead dollars. They typical team probably had about 12 other players that they needed to provide points, some of whom likely were on bye as well. Plus they could've stacked a 2nd team - giving them 2 or 3 more dead dollar spots.-QG
John Zaleski
Footballguy
Pretty sure that was the rate of having FIVE Packers.These are the stats for just having RodgersTotal teams with these players 4163 Still Alive 2526 60.68%
John Zaleski
Footballguy
SD stuff..
LT and VJ
Total teams with these players 877
Still Alive 175
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LT and Gates
Total teams with these players 653
Still Alive 124
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LT and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1188
Still Alive 310
---------------
LT, VJ, and Gates
Total teams with these players 415
Still Alive 52
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LT, VJ, and Rivers
Total teams with these players 675
Still Alive 123
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LT, gates, Rivers
Total teams with these players 521
Still Alive 85
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VJ and Gates
Total teams with these players 1425
Still Alive 443
----------------
VJ and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1866
Still Alive 591
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VJ, gates and Rivers
Total teams with these players 750
Still Alive 162
------------------
Gates and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1866
Still Alive 591
--------------------
ALL FOUR
Total teams with these players 362
Still Alive 40
--------------------
Floyd
Total teams with these players 715
Still Alive 319
--------------------
Rivers, LT, VJ, Floyd, SD (mine lol)
Total teams with these players 50
Still Alive 6
LT and VJ
Total teams with these players 877
Still Alive 175
-------------
LT and Gates
Total teams with these players 653
Still Alive 124
-------------
LT and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1188
Still Alive 310
---------------
LT, VJ, and Gates
Total teams with these players 415
Still Alive 52
---------------
LT, VJ, and Rivers
Total teams with these players 675
Still Alive 123
--------------
LT, gates, Rivers
Total teams with these players 521
Still Alive 85
-----------------
VJ and Gates
Total teams with these players 1425
Still Alive 443
----------------
VJ and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1866
Still Alive 591
-----------------
VJ, gates and Rivers
Total teams with these players 750
Still Alive 162
------------------
Gates and Rivers
Total teams with these players 1866
Still Alive 591
--------------------
ALL FOUR
Total teams with these players 362
Still Alive 40
--------------------
Floyd
Total teams with these players 715
Still Alive 319
--------------------
Rivers, LT, VJ, Floyd, SD (mine lol)
Total teams with these players 50
Still Alive 6
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Rivers, LT, Sproles, VJ (mine)Total teams with these players = 176Still Alive = 15
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
I'll do some Vikings combinations (my other SB team):
Favre + Peterson - 1077 (start) - 233 (alive)
Favre + Rice - 1026 - 252
Favre + Harvin - 352 - 72
Favre + Shiancoe - 629 - 145
Favre + Peterson + Rice - 534 - 89
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin - 100 - 8
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Shiancoe - 72 - 4
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Kleinsasser (mine) - 8 - 1
Favre + Peterson - 1077 (start) - 233 (alive)
Favre + Rice - 1026 - 252
Favre + Harvin - 352 - 72
Favre + Shiancoe - 629 - 145
Favre + Peterson + Rice - 534 - 89
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin - 100 - 8
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Shiancoe - 72 - 4
Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Kleinsasser (mine) - 8 - 1
lol. i took 16 just for the tiebreaker. none of them will score any points, though, and i'll have zero chance of getting to the final week. fun contest, though.Went with a Chargers-Packers Superbowl strategy. Despite losing 4 Packers yesterday, I made the cut. I'm not sure what my prospects are for making it past week 2, but here are my remaning horses:
Philip Rivers, Darren Sproles, Antonio Gates, Malcom Floyd, Nate Kaeding, Jacob Hester
Derrick Mason
New York Jets Defense
Devery Henderson, Lynell Hamilton
Shaun Suisham, Dallas Cowboys Defense
Minnesota Vikings Defense
Steve Breaston
The players I lost after Wildcard weekend:
Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Grant, Donald Driver, Jermichael Finley
Julian Edelman
Reggie Brown
I had 9 possible in WK1, 10 players in Wk2, Best case 6 players in WK3, and 8 players in Superbowl if it is Chargers vs. Cowboys or Saints.
If I somehow tie for first in the Superbowl weekend, I have 3 players for $2 to win the tie breaker.
Back to the Packer example , say out of thier five that they had at least two of Rodgers, Finley, and Jennings. Their score from just two of those three would have resulted in a score in the 70s and they did not have enough other players to grab 50 or so additional points? That seems bizarre that they would get that quantity of production from their Packers and still not be able to advance. Not only that, but the advancers were only at the rate of 1 in 5.
just as important as injuries coming into play - because you can't predict them - is the fact that early doucet's 25 points will probably be 3 next week if anquan boldin is healthy.Anything could come into play, but you can't mathematically eliminate a team because injuries might happen. Obviously 4012 of the remaining 4013 teams will be eliminated eventually, but it doesn't mean they're eliminated yet.Injuries could come into play too.I don't necessarily fall into either of these camps. I'm just interested in the mathematics of the thing. I've learned over the years that it's dang near impossible to have a set-it-and-forget-it-before-the-wildcard NFL playoff contest that isn't essentially decided (or at least down to just a small handful) before the Super Bowl even kicks off. [That's what gave rise to last season's format, which was not very popular.] Here's the answer:Ignoratio Elenchi said:I'd rather know now if I have a shot or not. DD should just post a link to a list of all the mathematically eliminated teams. Then it's up to you if you want to look at it or not.ConstruxBoy said:
331 currently-live teams are mathematically eliminated by virtue of the fact that there is at least one other team with all the same players and the first tiebreaker advantage.
There are other situations where a team might actually be mathematically eliminated, but in a more subtle way. For example, Team A has two players left: Manning and Rivers. Team B has Manning, Favre, and Brees. Team C has Rivers, Favre, and Brees. Both B and C have the tiebreaker over A. Team A could beat B, and Team A could beat C. But Team A can't beat both B and C in the Super Bowl. [thinking out loud]Well, hold on now. I guess it's possible that the Colts could beat the Chargers while Rivers outperforms Manning. This might allow Team A to advance while Team B is eliminated. Then Manning could outscore Favre+Brees in the SB, allowing Team A to beat Team C[/tol].
Yeah, this is kind of complicated.
Bottom line: at least 331 teams are mathematically eliminated. Maybe a few more, but probably not many more. And then, as Wadsworth points out, there are probably lots more teams that need some sequence of minor miracles to transpire in order for them to win. But that's OK.
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Here's a look at this kinda backwards.
Here are the stats for the survival rates of entries with ZERO guys rostered for each given team.
Zero Colts - 988 out of 1804 alive (54.8%)
Zero Chargers - 1180 out of 2296 alive (51.4%)
Zero Saints - 1933 out of 3790 alive (51.0%)
Zero Vikings - 1422 out of 2837 alive (50.1%)
Zero Bengals - 2519 out of 6380 alive (39.5%)
Zero Eagles - 1709 out of 4672 alive (36.6%)
Zero Jets - 1639 out of 4788 alive (34.2%)
Zero Patriots - 1167 out of 3765 alive (31.0%)
Zero Cardinals - 1206 out of 4358 alive (27.7%)
Zero Ravens - 985 out of 3694 alive (26.7%)
Zero Cowboys - 463 out of 2029 alive (22.8%)
Zero Packers - 426 out of 2026 alive (21.0%)
Heh - gotta wonder what the survival rate of guys like me who have 0 Chargers, 0 Saints, and 0 Packers
Random aside - here's an entry that roster 46 (!) players and is still alive: Here
-QG
Here are the stats for the survival rates of entries with ZERO guys rostered for each given team.
Zero Colts - 988 out of 1804 alive (54.8%)
Zero Chargers - 1180 out of 2296 alive (51.4%)
Zero Saints - 1933 out of 3790 alive (51.0%)
Zero Vikings - 1422 out of 2837 alive (50.1%)
Zero Bengals - 2519 out of 6380 alive (39.5%)
Zero Eagles - 1709 out of 4672 alive (36.6%)
Zero Jets - 1639 out of 4788 alive (34.2%)
Zero Patriots - 1167 out of 3765 alive (31.0%)
Zero Cardinals - 1206 out of 4358 alive (27.7%)
Zero Ravens - 985 out of 3694 alive (26.7%)
Zero Cowboys - 463 out of 2029 alive (22.8%)
Zero Packers - 426 out of 2026 alive (21.0%)
Heh - gotta wonder what the survival rate of guys like me who have 0 Chargers, 0 Saints, and 0 Packers
Random aside - here's an entry that roster 46 (!) players and is still alive: Here
-QG
Or none that are on the Chargers, Saints, Vikings or Colts? That would have probably been a high percentage advancing in week one, but week two not so much.Here's a look at this kinda backwards.
Here are the stats for the survival rates of entries with ZERO guys rostered for each given team.
Zero Colts - 988 out of 1804 alive (54.8%)
Zero Chargers - 1180 out of 2296 alive (51.4%)
Zero Saints - 1933 out of 3790 alive (51.0%)
Zero Vikings - 1422 out of 2837 alive (50.1%)
Zero Bengals - 2519 out of 6380 alive (39.5%)
Zero Eagles - 1709 out of 4672 alive (36.6%)
Zero Jets - 1639 out of 4788 alive (34.2%)
Zero Patriots - 1167 out of 3765 alive (31.0%)
Zero Cardinals - 1206 out of 4358 alive (27.7%)
Zero Ravens - 985 out of 3694 alive (26.7%)
Zero Cowboys - 463 out of 2029 alive (22.8%)
Zero Packers - 426 out of 2026 alive (21.0%)
Heh - gotta wonder what the survival rate of guys like me who have 0 Chargers, 0 Saints, and 0 Packers
Random aside - here's an entry that roster 46 (!) players and is still alive: Here
-QG
CrossEyed
Footballguy
So where do we find out who those teams are?
Das Boot
Footballguy
Interesting... my team has this combo:Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19
