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2010 FBG Post Season Contest (1 Viewer)

JB Breakfast Club said:
I'll do some Vikings combinations (my other SB team):Favre + Peterson - 1077 (start) - 233 (alive)Favre + Rice - 1026 - 252Favre + Harvin - 352 - 72Favre + Shiancoe - 629 - 145Favre + Peterson + Rice - 534 - 89Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin - 100 - 8Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Shiancoe - 72 - 4Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Kleinsasser (mine) - 8 - 1
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My team isn't looking great, but I checked and I'm the only guy alive in the contest with Favre, ADP, and the Jets' Greene and Feely. Not much of a shot, but a shot. (I never planned on having a shot, so it's all good.)
 
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Das Boot said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
I'll do some Vikings combinations (my other SB team):

Favre + Peterson - 1077 (start) - 233 (alive)

Favre + Rice - 1026 - 252

Favre + Harvin - 352 - 72

Favre + Shiancoe - 629 - 145

Favre + Peterson + Rice - 534 - 89

Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19

Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin - 100 - 8

Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Shiancoe - 72 - 4

Favre + Peterson + Rice + Harvin + Kleinsasser (mine) - 8 - 1
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Interesting... my team has this combo:Favre + Peterson + Rice + Shiancoe - 204 - 19
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My team is huge if I can make the Super Bowl with SD/MINN...feel comfortable this week's 9 players...it's next week that could get ugly. I will have no players from the Colts/Ravens game, and my only player in Saints/Cards is Doucet...so I'd basically be a four man roster for the conference finals...yipe.
 
With the huge number of entrants, I am guessing that you will need at least 8 guys going in the Superbowl to have a chance- for me, I need SD and NO to make it to get 8 guys.....that is if I survive.

Just curious....Im new to the site. How are you guys making all these queries into the data?

 
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Pura Vida said:
With the huge number of entrants, I am guessing that you will need at least 8 guys going in the Superbowl to have a chance- for me, I need SD and NO to make it to get 8 guys.....that is if I survive.Just curious....Im new to the site. How are you guys making all these queries into the data?
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See the first post in this thread for a link.
 
Teams that rostered Manning, Warner and Romo:

279

Still alive: 234

Survival rate: 83.87

Add Rivers:

133

Still alive:113

Survival rate:84.96

Add Brees:

78

Still alive:66

Survival Rate: 84.62

One would have to think that all of these teams will likely advance, but can the teams that took 4 or 5 QB's get to the SB? If they do, they have no chance in the SB week. No cap left for enough other players in the final week. In many cases, likely not enough for the AFC or NFC Championship week either. Probably down to 100 left of the cap by then. Thing is, people that did this have no shot at winning the whole thing, but they will take out a lot of teams that are stockpiled for the SB and are just praying to make the cut with multiple players from 2 or 3 teams.

Players who took rosters like this, 4 and 5 QB's are the wild card. They have no chance to win, but will take out teams that are in a position to win the week of the SB. I have 5 players who won't score foe me this week. That may be too many.

 
These are the survival rates for teams with n players that were on bye in week 1:

n All teams Still alive Rate1 84 72 85.71%2 136 125 91.91%3 345 308 89.28%4 861 710 82.46%5 1363 907 66.54%6 1597 757 47.40%7 1540 476 30.91%8 1132 233 20.58%9 657 104 15.83%10 375 44 11.73%11 216 8 3.70%12 131 3 2.29%This confirms the intuitive difficulty and the nuance of this contest. If you really think two of the bye-week teams will meet in the Super Bowl, you'd theoretically want to load up on players from those two teams. However, doing so drastically reduces your chances of surviving the first week. We all expect that the winner will be a team that has 10+ players going in the Super Bowl or something, but that may not be the case. Of course, if the Super Bowl ends up being Ravens-Cowboys, then I think you'd definitely need a ton of those players to stand a chance. But if it ends up being Colts-Saints, you may not need as many players as you think, since most of the teams that loaded up on Colts and Saints were eliminated this week.

 
Ignoratio Elenchi said:
These are the survival rates for teams with n players that were on bye in week 1:

n All teams Still alive Rate1 84 72 85.71%2 136 125 91.91%3 345 308 89.28%4 861 710 82.46%5 1363 907 66.54%6 1597 757 47.40%7 1540 476 30.91%8 1132 233 20.58%9 657 104 15.83%10 375 44 11.73%11 216 8 3.70%12 131 3 2.29%This confirms the intuitive difficulty and the nuance of this contest. If you really think two of the bye-week teams will meet in the Super Bowl, you'd theoretically want to load up on players from those two teams. However, doing so drastically reduces your chances of surviving the first week. We all expect that the winner will be a team that has 10+ players going in the Super Bowl or something, but that may not be the case. Of course, if the Super Bowl ends up being Ravens-Cowboys, then I think you'd definitely need a ton of those players to stand a chance. But if it ends up being Colts-Saints, you may not need as many players as you think, since most of the teams that loaded up on Colts and Saints were eliminated this week.
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I do wish I could have two of my picks worth $20 back, because of what you just pointed out here. If I had to do it over again, I would take 4 players from the bye team that I think will go to the SB. Then 4 players from the WC week team that I think is most likely to get to the SB. Then grab a WC week QB and WR. For the most part, I managed to do that without really projecting it out the way I should have, so I made 2 or 3 bad picks. Picking the right WC week winning teams is important too, but don't load up on them.. just one, maybe two players max.

If it's a Dallas/Indy SWB, I'm in good shape.

Manning

Clark

Wayne

Brown

Romo

Barber

Hurd

Suisham

In order to get through the next 2 weeks, I need AZ to win (Warner, Fitz) and NYJ (Jones, Keller, B Smith).

Basically, it boils down to correctly picking the entire playoffs correctly, and drafting based on when one expects each NFL team to get eliminated. Then you have to guess right, like F Jones over Barber, hope a player like D Brown or Hurd get an unlikely score in the SB, etc.

It's like trying to thread a needle with a blindfold and gloves on. Maybe even more difficult than that!

 
Here is my roster.....

* eliminated

Philip Rivers $28

Legedu Naanee $5

Antonio Gates $24

Joe Flacco $14

Ray Rice $16

Demetrius Williams $2

Mark Sanchez $13

Thomas Jones $14

Brett Favre $25

Chester Taylor $8

Percy Harvin $16

Kurt Warner $21

Anquan Boldin $16

*Donovan McNabb $23

*Leonard Weaver $6

*DeSean Jackson $19

-----------------------------------------------

WEEK 18 TOTAL 130.55

CUTOFF 128.80

Just made the cut this first week, placing 3871 of 4006. Doubt I make it to the final week. Great contest Doug!!

 
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Rovers said:
Teams that rostered Manning, Warner and Romo:279Still alive: 234Survival rate: 83.87Add Rivers:133Still alive:113Survival rate:84.96Add Brees:78Still alive:66Survival Rate: 84.62One would have to think that all of these teams will likely advance, but can the teams that took 4 or 5 QB's get to the SB? If they do, they have no chance in the SB week. No cap left for enough other players in the final week. In many cases, likely not enough for the AFC or NFC Championship week either. Probably down to 100 left of the cap by then. Thing is, people that did this have no shot at winning the whole thing, but they will take out a lot of teams that are stockpiled for the SB and are just praying to make the cut with multiple players from 2 or 3 teams.Players who took rosters like this, 4 and 5 QB's are the wild card. They have no chance to win, but will take out teams that are in a position to win the week of the SB. I have 5 players who won't score foe me this week. That may be too many.
Click to expand...
I'm one of the survivors of having Manning, Warner, Romo and Brees. I thought it was the best strategy, if your only able to keep the score of 2 players on a team to move on, then they better be consistently high scoring players. (What better than the QB's?) I did have Rice, but at the last minute exchanged him for Westbrook and 3 - $2 players. (the $2 trap). I think I have a great chance of being in the money now. I still have $227 alive. I do need Indy to be in the SB, and I like the odds of that. When I query for Indy rosters, I find very few that can match me with Indy against Arizona and Dallas (there's a couple I'll need some luck for the championship, but I should be in the money). And I couldn't find anyone with a better 8 players with Indy against New Orleans. Maybe someone can enlighten me, (hope not). But to say "NO Chance"? It may be the best chance!Team #101778 Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Austin Collie $14 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 22.40 Brad Smith $2 1.50 Drew Brees $29 0.00 Reggie Bush $13 0.00 Robert Meachem $14 0.00 Jeremy Shockey $13 0.00 Tony Romo $26 24.60 Felix Jones $8 24.30 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Kurt Warner $21 48.95 Tim Hightower $13 11.50 Steve Breaston $11 28.30 Brian Westbrook $10 3.20 Reggie Brown $2 0.00
 
LJax said:
Rovers said:
Teams that rostered Manning, Warner and Romo:279Still alive: 234Survival rate: 83.87Add Rivers:133Still alive:113Survival rate:84.96Add Brees:78Still alive:66Survival Rate: 84.62One would have to think that all of these teams will likely advance, but can the teams that took 4 or 5 QB's get to the SB? If they do, they have no chance in the SB week. No cap left for enough other players in the final week. In many cases, likely not enough for the AFC or NFC Championship week either. Probably down to 100 left of the cap by then. Thing is, people that did this have no shot at winning the whole thing, but they will take out a lot of teams that are stockpiled for the SB and are just praying to make the cut with multiple players from 2 or 3 teams.Players who took rosters like this, 4 and 5 QB's are the wild card. They have no chance to win, but will take out teams that are in a position to win the week of the SB. I have 5 players who won't score foe me this week. That may be too many.
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I'm one of the survivors of having Manning, Warner, Romo and Brees. I thought it was the best strategy, if your only able to keep the score of 2 players on a team to move on, then they better be consistently high scoring players. (What better than the QB's?) I did have Rice, but at the last minute exchanged him for Westbrook and 3 - $2 players. (the $2 trap). I think I have a great chance of being in the money now. I still have $227 alive. I do need Indy to be in the SB, and I like the odds of that. When I query for Indy rosters, I find very few that can match me with Indy against Arizona and Dallas (there's a couple I'll need some luck for the championship, but I should be in the money). And I couldn't find anyone with a better 8 players with Indy against New Orleans. Maybe someone can enlighten me, (hope not). But to say "NO Chance"? It may be the best chance!Team #101778 Peyton Manning $29 0.00 Joseph Addai $19 0.00 Austin Collie $14 0.00 Pierre Garcon $13 0.00 Julian Edelman $11 22.40 Brad Smith $2 1.50 Drew Brees $29 0.00 Reggie Bush $13 0.00 Robert Meachem $14 0.00 Jeremy Shockey $13 0.00 Tony Romo $26 24.60 Felix Jones $8 24.30 Sam Hurd $2 0.00 Kurt Warner $21 48.95 Tim Hightower $13 11.50 Steve Breaston $11 28.30 Brian Westbrook $10 3.20 Reggie Brown $2 0.00
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I stand corrected, but I think you are a rare exception. In a Dalls/Indy final, this would be my lineup:ManningWayneClarkD BrownRomoBarberHurdSuishamAny other SB would likely sink me.Warner FitzColstonUnless, in a bizarre twist of fate:T JonesB SmithKellerI might still have a chance in a Dallas-NYJ SB, which aint gonna happen.
 
what player is on the highest percentage of teams?

i'm gonna guess brad smith is right up there. $2 and coming off that huge game vs. the bengals in week 17, a lot of people probably drank that kool-aid.

 
bweiser said:
what player is on the highest percentage of teams? i'm gonna guess brad smith is right up there. $2 and coming off that huge game vs. the bengals in week 17, a lot of people probably drank that kool-aid.
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Why not? For $2, his upside is large, and he only cost $2. He has a better chance of scoring points than any other $2 player in the contest. :confused:
 
Rovers said:
bweiser said:
what player is on the highest percentage of teams? i'm gonna guess brad smith is right up there. $2 and coming off that huge game vs. the bengals in week 17, a lot of people probably drank that kool-aid.
Click to expand...
Why not? For $2, his upside is large, and he only cost $2. He has a better chance of scoring points than any other $2 player in the contest. :confused:
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He was on my $2 list as he pretty much has a guaranteed number of snaps. Curious what the full scoring tally was of the $2 guys. Kuhn scored which kinda irked me as I had him tabbed for a while, but thankfully I didn't need him. My other $2 were Cosby (5.6 was pretty respectable and not unexpected given that they only were dressing 4 WRs of late), Kleinsasser (hopefully for a random target or two) and Baskett (total shot in the dark and figure if I'm going to grab a $2 as tie-breaker fodder, might as well have him be on one of my Super Bowl teams.Btw, Smith didn't even come close to the highest percentage. He was only on 957 teams. Of which 554 are still alive.Peyton Manning was on 4820 rosters. 1845 of those remain. Not sure if that's the most, but it appears to be the most by a QBBtw, the least-rostered guy I could find, through trial and error, was Brian Leonard who was only on 12 entries! Only 4 of those survived so far.-QG
 
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Doug Drinen said:
Divisional round sim
Click to expand...
Thanks for doing these and being involved in the thread. I am only at 55.5% which is just what I expected, as I went all fo Wild Card round players. The upside is that I have several for each of the Ravens and Cards, so I am not limited to expecting big scores from certain players. Just need two each to do outstanding. I need a big day again for Kurt and hope that he focuses in on Fitz or Breaston or one of the two RBs scores a couple TDs.Also need another normal Ray Rice day and one more score from one of several others. The others that are needed are Felis Jones, Marion Barber, Thomas Jones, and Dustin Keller. All four of these guys are on an island and need to come through. All or nothing with them.

Good Luck Everybody!

 
Late to the party at checking out the scores from week 1...when I looked at it, I thought how the hell did people get 300 points from 2 players?!

"In the first three rounds, ONLY YOUR TWO HIGHEST-SCORING PLAYERS FROM EACH NFL TEAM WILL COUNT TOWARD YOUR SCORE. In the Super Bowl, ALL your players count toward your score."

Hmm..I guess that makes more sense than getting scoring from only 2 players each week until the superbowl :unsure:

 
1742.... 60.2%, 5pts above expected cut off... yuk.. kinda sucks the guys at the top of the sim have zero chance at winning if they make the SB.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
John Zaleski said:
1742.... 60.2%, 5pts above expected cut off... yuk.. kinda sucks the guys at the top of the sim have zero chance at winning if they make the SB.
Click to expand...
wow, only 46.9% chance with 9 players...here's to another big game for Doucet!
Click to expand...
You may be in better shape than you think. I have 15 players at 99%. However, only the scores from 10 of those players will count. Out of 4 Cowboys, only 2 will count, ditto for Indy. I have 3 Jets, so only 2 will count. So I lose 5 players, and the simulation doesn't account for that.
 
Rovers said:
JB Breakfast Club said:
John Zaleski said:
1742.... 60.2%, 5pts above expected cut off... yuk.. kinda sucks the guys at the top of the sim have zero chance at winning if they make the SB.
Click to expand...
wow, only 46.9% chance with 9 players...here's to another big game for Doucet!
Click to expand...
You may be in better shape than you think. I have 15 players at 99%. However, only the scores from 10 of those players will count. Out of 4 Cowboys, only 2 will count, ditto for Indy. I have 3 Jets, so only 2 will count. So I lose 5 players, and the simulation doesn't account for that.
Click to expand...
Are you sure about it not accounting for that? I have 10 SD/DALL players and it appears it is and I'm not getting credit for the 6 non scores on my average. My listed average (147) is what I expect from the 8 I have scoring this weekend.
 
28.5

Got like a million Colts (minus Wayne), Flacco and McGahee

Tomorrow I've got uh...Brad Smith and Crayton and, oh yeah, Kleinsasser.

I'm just a spoiler now if even that :wall:

:moneybag:

-QG

 
Good Lord, I'm 3,815th on the sim with a .4% of advancing. I thought I had a much better shot than that. All I had was Doucet in the Cards' game -- no NO at all. Go Chargers!

 
Sittin at 84.6 with 5 players left. I'll get through this week, but if Dallas loses, I'm sunk next week, unless the Jets pull off the unlikely upset. I could be in worse shape, only lost Warner and Fitz. Still have Colston. Still need a Dallas -Indy SB, or a Jets-Dallas SB.

 
Well, the update dropped me to 518, 98.8.

It's been fun having something to fool around with after FF season. Thanks Doug.

 
I might possibly skate by this week (probably not), but if I do I am no threat to all the survivors. Only have two Jets and two Cowboys left alive.

It was a great contest and probably the toughest decision making of any that I have played in here at FootballGuys. Thanks also to Doug Drinnen for the interaction on the thread and sims and queries. Great fun!

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
good enough game for Doucet. Nobody in tonight's game, so I end the day with 14.8...Fully loaded tomorrow though.
Click to expand...
47% up to 86.1% - big thanks to the Indy D for keeping Rice somewhat under wraps and the Indy O for really spreading the ball around. 8 players today and need the #2 seeds to win both!
 
Up to 4.1% chance ... need huge games from my Cowboys and Chargers plus TJones and BSmith after losing my Pats and Packers players last week. I'm thinking the best strategy would have been to take one from each WC weekend player instead of 2 to hedge rather than go all-in and pick winners for that week. Now I had to be right for every game instead of just the Superbowl participants.

 
Went from 147-60.2% to 140-84.8%

Thank you Warner and Addai for sucking so bad.

All I had was Rice and Mason yesterday.

5 SD, 5 Dall and TJones/Cotchery today.

 
Wow. That's my team at #1 overall. Crazy. Sure it will change, but I will bask in the glory of Dodds' simulations for the remainder of the day. Good luck!

Thanks FB Guys for this game.

 
If I'm seeing this right, there is only 5 teams left that have Farve, Sidney Rice, Manning, Wayne, and Clark. Of those 5, a few have additional colts and vikings players. I'm thinking our contest winner is gonna come from that group. Oh yeah, I'm one of those 5 teams :lmao:

 
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