ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
Oh don't get me wrong, I like him a lot. But I think that even though his lower body is strong, he plays with less power than Spiller or Best.
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2010 Rookie Draft Picks, Looking Ahead! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Iron_Far
- Start date
If Florida's Aaron Hernandez continues to perform in his next two games (SEC Championship and BCS game) do you think he can squeeze his way into the 1st round? I know he is a TE, but he is the leading receiver of the #1 team in the country. He's a bit undersized but he's freakishly talented. What's everyone's thoughts should he decide to come out his junior year?
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No Way Jose
Footballguy
Motario Hardesty will be one of the top 5 backs to be selected in my opinion. He plays in a pro style offense and can be counted on as an every down back. He has the combination of size and speed, and the guy is always falling forward. He will be a very good back at the next level.
Here are a few stats for you:
6'1" 210lbs
This year: 264 attempts 1306 yds 12 tds
Last 2 games: VANDY: 32 carries for 171 and 1 TD
Kentucky:39 carries for 179 and 3 TD
0 fumbles from scrimmage all year.
Don't waste a draft pick on one of these speedsters like Best and Spiller. These guys are not Chris Johnson, nobody is. They are Darren Sproles. Yea they might break one and score some points that week, or they might not. I would rather have a player that I know will score points every week as opposed to someone like sproles, who either give you 25 pts but most likely get you 4.
He has proven that he can stay healthy for an entire season and I look for him to go in the second or early third of the NFL draft. Draft him at the end of round 1 in your rookie draft and you will be rewarded.
Check him out
Spin move
Here are a few stats for you:
6'1" 210lbs
This year: 264 attempts 1306 yds 12 tds
Last 2 games: VANDY: 32 carries for 171 and 1 TD
Kentucky:39 carries for 179 and 3 TD
0 fumbles from scrimmage all year.
Don't waste a draft pick on one of these speedsters like Best and Spiller. These guys are not Chris Johnson, nobody is. They are Darren Sproles. Yea they might break one and score some points that week, or they might not. I would rather have a player that I know will score points every week as opposed to someone like sproles, who either give you 25 pts but most likely get you 4.
He has proven that he can stay healthy for an entire season and I look for him to go in the second or early third of the NFL draft. Draft him at the end of round 1 in your rookie draft and you will be rewarded.
Check him out
Spin move
EBF
Footballguy
I may have to re-consider re-considering Mardy Gilyard's pro prospects. I caught the second half of today's game against Pittsburgh and thought he looked very good. Crisp routes. Good hands. Explosive speed and quickness. There's no way I can justify ranking him ahead of Dez Bryant, but he might be the 2nd best WR prospect in the draft. As I've mentioned previously, I see shades of Santonio Holmes. Gilyard is just a hair thinner. Otherwise they're very similar in terms of body type, playing style, and skill set. You can see a couple of today's highlights here:
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4716801&a...egoryid=2564308
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4716801&a...egoryid=2564308
Instinctive
Footballguy
Chaos Commish
Footballguy
I haven't been paying much attention to these threads until recently but I thought you were Gilyard's biggest fan around here dating back to last year. Whatever you're reconsidering is a mystery to me, but I agree he should be rated very high. The group of players behind Bryant is difficult to sort as usual, but no player has made his case any stronger. I give him a little separation from that tier for now.
Hitchcock Presents
Footballguy
Ryan Matthews had some afternoon. 170-plus rushing yards, three td's.
With a top-four pick, I can see myself taking this stud-in waiting.
With a top-four pick, I can see myself taking this stud-in waiting.
Spiller's killing GT right nowGuy just brought his draft stock up huge today.
EBF
Footballguy
Some interesting games today:
- Washington QB Jake Locker played absolutely out of his gourd as the Huskies pulled off an emphatic 42-10 upset of Cal. Locker was 19-23 for 250 yards and 3 passing TDs along with 13 carries for 82 yards and 2 scores. This could be the kind of big game he needed to push him into the draft. Some teams will prefer Sam Bradford and his pinpoint accuracy, but others will fall in love with Locker's upside. If he declares he could be QB1-QB2 and a top 15 overall pick.
- Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews did it again with 170+ rushing yards and 3 scores against a BCS opponent. His production this season has been totally insane and he strikes me as the type of workout warrior who will put up staggering numbers at the combine. I think he's a first round NFL draft pick in April.
- Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard almost single-handedly beat Pittsburgh. He had a crucial 99 yard kickoff return TD with less than two minutes left in the half when the Bearcats trailed 31-10. He added a long TD reception in the third quarter and another long kick return to set up the decisive drive. Given his ability in the passing game and his skills as a return man, it won't be surprising to see him work his way into the first round of the NFL draft. If he runs a sub 4.5 40, he should be a top 35 pick.
- Clemson RB CJ Spiller made his case for the Heisman in a losing effort against Georgia Tech. 20 carries for 233 rushing yards and 4 TDs at a gaudy 11.7 yards per carry. Yea, that's not a bad day at the office. There's no doubt he'll be a first round pick. The only question is how high. Top 30? Top 20? Top 10? He may not be an every down back at the next level, but he makes a lot of game-changing plays.
- Meanwhile Georgia Tech's pair of draft-eligible skill position stars did what they've been doing all season. RB Jonathan Dwyer had a solid day with 110 yards and 2 rushing TDs. WR Demaryius Thomas made the most of limited opportunities, catching 2 passes for 77 yards (including a 70 yard TD).
All of the guys mentioned above should figure prominently into upcoming rookie drafts.
- Washington QB Jake Locker played absolutely out of his gourd as the Huskies pulled off an emphatic 42-10 upset of Cal. Locker was 19-23 for 250 yards and 3 passing TDs along with 13 carries for 82 yards and 2 scores. This could be the kind of big game he needed to push him into the draft. Some teams will prefer Sam Bradford and his pinpoint accuracy, but others will fall in love with Locker's upside. If he declares he could be QB1-QB2 and a top 15 overall pick.
- Fresno State RB Ryan Mathews did it again with 170+ rushing yards and 3 scores against a BCS opponent. His production this season has been totally insane and he strikes me as the type of workout warrior who will put up staggering numbers at the combine. I think he's a first round NFL draft pick in April.
- Cincinnati WR Mardy Gilyard almost single-handedly beat Pittsburgh. He had a crucial 99 yard kickoff return TD with less than two minutes left in the half when the Bearcats trailed 31-10. He added a long TD reception in the third quarter and another long kick return to set up the decisive drive. Given his ability in the passing game and his skills as a return man, it won't be surprising to see him work his way into the first round of the NFL draft. If he runs a sub 4.5 40, he should be a top 35 pick.
- Clemson RB CJ Spiller made his case for the Heisman in a losing effort against Georgia Tech. 20 carries for 233 rushing yards and 4 TDs at a gaudy 11.7 yards per carry. Yea, that's not a bad day at the office. There's no doubt he'll be a first round pick. The only question is how high. Top 30? Top 20? Top 10? He may not be an every down back at the next level, but he makes a lot of game-changing plays.
- Meanwhile Georgia Tech's pair of draft-eligible skill position stars did what they've been doing all season. RB Jonathan Dwyer had a solid day with 110 yards and 2 rushing TDs. WR Demaryius Thomas made the most of limited opportunities, catching 2 passes for 77 yards (including a 70 yard TD).
All of the guys mentioned above should figure prominently into upcoming rookie drafts.
EBF... I really respect your opinions on here, I'm curious, do you think Spiller can be counted on for 20+ touches a game in the NFL?
I watched the game tonight and obviously I was impressed with Spiller's speed even though he was slowed by the turf toe. Are you concerned with his ability to run between the tackles at the next level?
I was also impressed with Dwyer, it was the first time I really watched him, he runs with a lot of power and leg drive. It was kinda hard to gauge him for the first 3/4 of the game because of the role he plays in the GT offense, but they really leaned on him at the end of the game, I think he has some serious skills for the next level.
I watched the game tonight and obviously I was impressed with Spiller's speed even though he was slowed by the turf toe. Are you concerned with his ability to run between the tackles at the next level?
I was also impressed with Dwyer, it was the first time I really watched him, he runs with a lot of power and leg drive. It was kinda hard to gauge him for the first 3/4 of the game because of the role he plays in the GT offense, but they really leaned on him at the end of the game, I think he has some serious skills for the next level.
EBF
Footballguy
Hard to say. I didn't think Chris Johnson could be a full time back, but he's doing it. Maybe Spiller can too. We know he can make big plays, but we don't know if he can hold up to 250+ NFL touches and do the dirty work between the tackles. I think he has some natural limitations in those areas.
corpcow
Footballguy
I know it's obviously very early, but how do you guys see the round shaking out in general in terms of position distribution / tiers? Is this a top-heavy draft? Is the draft deeper but no clear top standouts? Should I be trying to move up, or stockpile as many picks as possible, or what? With the uncapped year/rookie cap/etc, any reason to think this year will be great or terrible or whatever compared to the future?
Just trying to figure out what kinds of moves I should be making.
E.g., in one league, I have picks #1 & 2. My team is terrible. At this point, #1 & 2 are obviously valued highly... but if it's one of those years where there are no clear top 2-4 types, maybe I'm better off trading back/trading for studs.
In another another I also have 2x 1sts, but they are mid-late. I finished 1st overall but draft obviously depends on playoff results and the other pick I thought would be top 4 but he made playoffs (12 of 16 make it) and now his team is competing. I have great, generally young talent at RB/WR (CJ, Wells, T.Jones, D.Brown, B.Scott, Avery, Maclin, Rice, Holmes, Driver, Floyd, etc), but I desperately need a backup QB (had Ryan/Jamarcus).
Will a guy like McCoy/LeFevour/Tebow/Jrs be worth a 1st rounder and/or have a chance to start early? Are there more WRs than RBs, what's the relative tier value, etc?
Just looking for a general sense of what this draft looks like.
Just trying to figure out what kinds of moves I should be making.
E.g., in one league, I have picks #1 & 2. My team is terrible. At this point, #1 & 2 are obviously valued highly... but if it's one of those years where there are no clear top 2-4 types, maybe I'm better off trading back/trading for studs.
In another another I also have 2x 1sts, but they are mid-late. I finished 1st overall but draft obviously depends on playoff results and the other pick I thought would be top 4 but he made playoffs (12 of 16 make it) and now his team is competing. I have great, generally young talent at RB/WR (CJ, Wells, T.Jones, D.Brown, B.Scott, Avery, Maclin, Rice, Holmes, Driver, Floyd, etc), but I desperately need a backup QB (had Ryan/Jamarcus).
Will a guy like McCoy/LeFevour/Tebow/Jrs be worth a 1st rounder and/or have a chance to start early? Are there more WRs than RBs, what's the relative tier value, etc?
Just looking for a general sense of what this draft looks like.
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offdee
Footballguy
At this point there is a clear cut "Big 5"1) Dez Bryant2) Jonathan Dwyer3) Ryan Mathews4) C.J. Spiller5) Jahvid BestIf you can get a top 5 pick you should be sitting pretty.
BeTheMatch
Footballguy
I think that's how I see it too at this point. Some RB(s) will end up in a crummy situation, so that might elevate a guy like Gilyard into the top five.
Maroney=Speed
Footballguy
I don't think you will get a shot at Spiller unless you have a top 2 pick. Even if he doesn't project to an every down back he will still go to a team that will use him a lot.I haven't scouted Mathews yet. Linky?
ConstruxBoy
Kate's Daddy
I like that list a lot. I'd move Spiller to #2. Unsure of Dwyer or Mathews at 3. GT's offense seems to sort of bog down Dwyer this year, but in past years I thought he looked ridiculously good and he's probably faced better competition than Mathews.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Why would you use a first round pick on a backup QB in a dynasty? Backup/fill-in QBs are easy easy easy to find in dynasty leagues. It's not bad to have a project QB onboard, but not as your backup when there are solid producers that would make perfect backups for absurdly cheap out there in dynasty leagues. Approach it like a fantasy football draft, not like you're the GM of an NFL team.
Not always the case, play in a 12 team dynasty, start 1QB/2RB/3WR/1TE and 1 Flex (QB/RB/WR/TE)... basically a start 2QB league.The top FA QBs available are...Batch and Gutierrez...All other QBs with any sort of points this year are rostered.
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Great observations there, EBF. I watched all of the guys you mentioned here yesterday except Ryan Mathews and Jake Locker. I have to get some film on those two.Spiller looked pretty fantastic to me yesterday. Like Chris Johnson, he is a very sudden player and really breaks to the outside fast for those home run type runs. I'm not sure if he can be an every down back, but he can certainly carry most of the load (say 65:35 ratio).
This is not the case in the dynasty leagues I am in.
Milwaukees_best
Footballguy
If you put Crabtree in this draft, how does he compare to Dez?
A
awesomeness
Guest
Dez is better.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Calvin Johnson, Fitzgerald, and maybe Rogers/AJ are the only WRs taken this decade who are arguably better prospects.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Same here. I find people are reluctant to draft QBs in the first but once they're starting they're actually hard to get.
Milwaukees_best
Footballguy
Wow. I honestly did not know that, I felt like we were saying the same things abotu crabtree last year. Walterfootball doesnt even have him as the top WR in this class. Maybe I need to check where I get my info from!
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
Rogers?
I assume that would be Charles Rogers, drafted #2 overall by the Lions in 2003, whom, IIRC, was an extremely good prospect.Rogers?
el centro
Footballguy
I've been looking at some of the stats of some of the Draft-Eligible RB's, and it seems there's quite a few "BIG" RB's coming out. Obviously Gerhart's production speaks for itelf, but can someone offer some feedback on these guys:
1. Anthony Dixon, Sr - Miss.St., 6'1" 235lbs!; 257-carries; 1391-yds; 12-TDs
2. John Clay, Soph - WI; 6'2", 247lbs; 265, 1396, 16-TDs
3. Daniel Thomas, Jr. KSU, 6'2" 227lbs; 247, 1265, 11-tds
This guy I asked about earlier in the season, but didn't get much feedback on him. Since then his #s have been a bit more pedestrian, but he does seem to have classic NFL RB size:
4. Bent Tate, Sr, Aub; 5'11" 218; 243, 1254, 8-td's.
1. Anthony Dixon, Sr - Miss.St., 6'1" 235lbs!; 257-carries; 1391-yds; 12-TDs
2. John Clay, Soph - WI; 6'2", 247lbs; 265, 1396, 16-TDs
3. Daniel Thomas, Jr. KSU, 6'2" 227lbs; 247, 1265, 11-tds
This guy I asked about earlier in the season, but didn't get much feedback on him. Since then his #s have been a bit more pedestrian, but he does seem to have classic NFL RB size:
4. Bent Tate, Sr, Aub; 5'11" 218; 243, 1254, 8-td's.
coolnerd
Footballguy
Dixon- big running back, not dynamic, but should go mid-rounds and to me looks like the power side of RRBC. Clay- has speed for his size, not sure if he runs with pure power that his size suggests, guessing 2nd/3rd rounder at the moment, reminds me of Oakland's BushThomas- did not see them this seasonTate- Solid player, productive, decent power as I remember, another RRBC/Back-up type, but frame/production suggest that there might be more to him than I believe. think he is 4th/5th round type
peter griffin
Footballguy
I thought John Clay was a true sophomore. I could be mistaken but unless he took a PG year he is not draft eligible.
corpcow
Footballguy
... for the same reason I still have Russell rostered. This is a 16 team league with deep rosters and 6 pts per TD. Something like 55 QBs are rostered including those who have no chance of starting any time soon. Any 1st round NFL QB who has a good chance of starting in the next year or two will be gone by pick 8-10 at the latest. NFL backup QBs often trade for late 2nds, early 3rds and a starting QB like Collins went for a couple of 2nds.
EBF
Footballguy
Good news. USC RB Stafon Johnson plans to forgo a potential medical hardship and enter the draft.
http://www.examiner.com/x-5385-USC-Trojans...ding-to-the-NFL
I'm interpreting this news as a positive indicator that he's expected to make a 100% recovery from his weightlifting accident.
As I've mentioned before, I think Johnson could be a good sleeper in rounds 3-4 assuming his health checks out.
http://www.examiner.com/x-5385-USC-Trojans...ding-to-the-NFL
I'm interpreting this news as a positive indicator that he's expected to make a 100% recovery from his weightlifting accident.
As I've mentioned before, I think Johnson could be a good sleeper in rounds 3-4 assuming his health checks out.
Ilov80s
Footballguy
He was very good. His first 5 games as a rookie he racked up 250 yards and 3 TDs. It looked like he was going to be a beast for Detroit, but injuries and drugs ruined him. As WR prospects go, only AJ, CJ, and Fitz compare to Charles' combo of size, speed, body control, and athleticism.I assume that would be Charles Rogers, drafted #2 overall by the Lions in 2003, whom, IIRC, was an extremely good prospect.Rogers?
lyon812
Footballguy
Washington quarterback Jake Locker announced Monday he will return to Washington for his senior season, quickly putting to rest any lingering questions about his future.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/foo...on-locker_N.htm
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/college/foo...on-locker_N.htm
coolnerd
Footballguy
I am always cynical about announcement this early from teh deadline, but Locker could use the year of polishing and his baseball bonus probably keeps from being a normal starving college kid. Still want to see if his mind changes when he keep hearing he is a top 10 if not top 5 pick.
lyon812
Footballguy
I agree, but my gut feeling is that he means it. I'm certain he's well aware of his draft stock--how could he not be?
Right now his coaches are probably a big influence.. wait until agents start getting into his head talking top 5 pick and millions of dollars, jevon snead, injury risk etc.
Brides Maids
Footballguy
Yeah I'm from Wis and follow the Badgers closely. I think there is NO WAY Clay comes out this year. As for his numbers and how they may transfer to the NFL you have to remember the offensive line he is running behind and the type of offense Wis runs (RUN first). After watching Clay for 2 years now his first year was not very impressive not being the number 1 guy didn't help because PJ Hill was still there. I actually compare him to Ron Dane's just run style. He just runs "smaller" and with way less vision of the field.
Rogers is/was the second best WR prospect I've ever seen, behind Calvin and just ahead of Fitz.
Agree that there looks like a "big five" tier with the mentioned names. In my opinion there's not a lot of separation amongst 1-5, though, in terms of talent. The things that will determine how the top five picks grade out in terms of value is the situations- Personally I'd wait until the NFL draft is done and one or two of these guys go to juicy-looking situations, then trade down to four or five to scoop up one of the equally-talented guys who doesn't get the hype boost.Overall, this is one of the deepest dynasty drafts I've ever seen, but lacks those one or two uber-elite guys at the very top. There are probably 20+ guys who I think have good shots at becoming fantasy relevant, which compares very well to most years. This isn't to say that 20 players actually will become fantasy relevant, just that when I look at the class there's probably sixteen to twenty names right now that I wouldn't mind getting with my first pick (#14 ) in the upcoming rookie draft.I think the value picks are 3-5, and probably 10-15 or so, again depending on situations.
EBF
Footballguy
My rankings are still a work in progress and will remain so for a couple months. Most of these guys will be playing in bowl games, which will give me a good opportunity to assess their skills over four quarters. The combine will also be an important factor. I don't expect to have a firm set of rankings for another two or three months. Right now I see a pretty clear top 5 in no particular order:RB Ryan MathewsRB Jonathan DwyerRB Jahvid BestRB CJ SpillerWR Dez BryantThe four RBs all have first round NFL draft potential. They seem to be a clear notch above the other backs in the draft. There are a few WRs with first round potential, but Bryant is the only stone cold lock. The next grouping includes:QB Sam BradfordQB Jimmy ClausenQB Tony PikeRB Montario HardestyRB Anthony DixonRB Stafon Johnson *RB Toby GerhartWR Demaryius ThomasWR Mardy GilyardWR Arrelious BennWR Golden TateWR Brandon LaFellWR Dezmon BriscoeWR Danario AlexanderBradford and Clausen will be common considerations in the 6-12 range of rookie drafts if they go high in the NFL draft as expected. The RBs and WRs will jockey for the remaining spots in the top 12. Whoever distinguishes themselves in workouts and all-star games will have the advantage. I think Thomas will emerge as a first round WR prospect and I think Gilyard will nip at his heels with a good 40 time. I think Hardesty, Dixon, and Gerhart could solidify spots in this range with good workouts and a favorable landing spot on draft day. I think the other WRs will fall to the rounds 2-4 range of the NFL draft and slip into the 10-20 range of rookie drafts.
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Agreed on the clear top five, that's why I was curious to to see you segregate the "top six" picks as having value. I figured that it was just kind of an approximation, or alternatively a projection based on the belief that one of the "next grouping" will make a big leap over the next couple of months based on surprising combine results or a dream situation...There are two names on your "next grouping" list I'm completely unfamiliar with at this point (Tony Pike, Danario Alexander) that I'll be interested to start learning more about. Geez, I love NFL/Fantasy draft season.
EBF
Footballguy
Yea, pretty much. You have to figure someone like Hardesty or Thomas is going to blow up in the postseason. It seems to happen every year. Hence the "big 5" will probably become a big 6-7 when it's all said and done.
rabidfireweasel
Footballguy
He is draft eligible. Some think with Locker staying (allegedly) and no rookie cap, that he may come out. I think he is a very interesting prospect- but you better be prepared to sit on him for 2-3 years with no results if you draft him (and most people saying he is a bust) because he is very raw and will likely take some time. Physically, he is off the charts, with good production.
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