Tenacious D
Footballguy
My first impressions after last night of how these guys should be viewed in dynasty rookie drafts. More to come when the draft is complete.
Blue Chips
Sean Weatherspoon, ATL – OLB
I had a first-round grade on Weatherspoon coming out of the season and listed him as such going back to my first mock, pre-Combine. He is the most talented all-around linebacker in this class and will be a stud WLB for years.
Eric Berry, KC – S
Universally recognized as one of top talents in the entire draft, Berry lands in an ideal situation. A struggling offense will give him plenty of time on the field and a weak front seven should give him plenty of tackle opportunities. Berry could play either safety, but should start at strong safety and be an impact player from Week One. His nose for the ball in the air and ability for big returns after the pick are the reasons for comparisons to Ed Reed (BAL). DC Romeo Crennel knows how to utilize a multi-talented safety. Rodney Harrison had two of the best statistical seasons ever by a safety the two years he played all 16 games under Crennel (2003 and 2004).
Ndamukong Suh, DET – DT
A rare talent, Suh can be the rare player to make a fantasy impact on the interior line like Albert Haynesworth. You don’t want to draft him like a top defensive end, but especially in a league that segregates tackles and ends, you don’t want to ignore him like you might most rookie DTs.
Overvalued
Rolando McClain, OAK – LB
Until the linebacker situation in Oakland is sorted, McClain has to be considered overrated. As the first interior linebacker selected in the actual draft, he jumps to the top of IDP draft boards in most tackle-based leagues, which means he’ll be going too early for me until we know what is happening with the Raiders. What I think this means, and it’s not great for McClain, is that the Raiders are definitely heading towards a 3-4 defense. While the team continues to talk about their players in a 3-4 and pundits continue to ignore the clues, the evidence seem to be overwhelming. The move of DE Trevor Scott to SLB last year was the harbinger. The addition of tweeners Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves, as well as the apparent willingness to part with two of their starting linebackers (Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard, both given just mid-level tenders) in the offseason makes it seem more evident. Now with the addition of McClain, who many evaluate as his best fit a 3-4, I really think this is what is being set up. You have an experienced, and successful, 3-4 end in Richard Seymour and with Tommy Kelly a player who is probably better suited as a five-technique DE. Wimbley, Scott, Groves and Sam Williams (another player who has probably been miscast in a 4-3) are all ideal fits for the outside in a 3-4. That leaves the inside, and where I see bad news for McClain. He is probably best suited as the SILB, since he doesn’t project strongly as a pass rusher or in coverage, making him the odd man out in the nickel and dime. Morrison or Howard remain as the WILB, and probably the best fantasy producer. McClain can still be a tackle-machine, but predominantly just a run-stuffer with Earl Holmes as his ceiling. Even in the best case scenario, the Raiders remain a 4-3 and Morrison is moved, to the outside or off the team, McClain doesn’t have the elite athleticism to project his value coming from more than tackles. That still makes him valuable, but not if you are taking him expecting the next Patrick Willis, like some will expect because of his high position in the NFL draft.
Brandon Graham, PHI – DE
With all due credit to HC Andy Reid and talent evaluation capabilities of his staff, I don’t like this pick. Even though it would appear to mean less fantasy appeal, I would have preferred to see Graham as a 3-4 OLB. Graham confirmed the Eagles told him he would be playing DE. I like him even less in the extensive rotation Philly uses in the front four, i.e. it will limit his snaps. His speed and quickness is solid, for a bigger end, but not at the freakish level of a Dwight Freeney to overcome being undersized. Also, his arms are shorter than Freeney’s, which means offensive linemen can get to his body quicker and/or easier, the other reason I would have preferred to see him get an opportunity in a 3-4.
Earl Thomas, SEA – S
There is a lot to like about a guy who should be a ball-hawking immediate starter at FS with the potential to be a top corner, as well. However, a few things concern me enough to not suggest reaching for him. He’s a bit undersized for safety and while he generates some big hits with his speed and timing, he needs to bulk up to be a sure tackler at this level and I worry about his durability if he doesn’t. While he is lauded equally for his potential as a corner due to his coverage skills, this usually ends up as an albatross for a player of his profile because if he isn’t an impact player from day one, a coach is tempted to bounce him around and inhibit his development, see Michael Huff and Reggie Nelson. I see more boom or bust than lock to be a success.
Gerald McCoy, TB – DT
I think he can be a great player, but the comparisons to Warren Sapp are inaccurate and unfair. He doesn’t have the bulk or strength yet to handle NFL offensive linemen. He isn’t as good as Tommie Harris was coming out in 2004, a more realistic expectation for the type of player he could become.
Devin McCourty, NE – CB
Corner has been a fantasy wasteland in New England lately. Now mostly that’s been due to quality of players at the position recently, but the rotation HC Bill Belichick uses and the schemes he employs doesn’t help their stats. McCourty will need to be the next Ty Law or Asante Samuel to standout, which is asking a lot. I like him significantly more in leagues that count return stats. He should earn their primary kick and punt return duties, as well as be a gunner on punt coverage.
Dan Williams, AZ – NT
Most people aren’t in leagues deep enough to need to draft nose tackles, but if you are, I wouldn’t bother with Williams. Nothing to dislike about his potential, but considering he went from late round grade to first rounder based on one season, why bother assuming even this small amount of risk?
Undervalued
Jerry Hughes, DE – IND
If the Ravens, Pats or Dolphins took him, I’d classify him as a blue chipper. I like his potential enough in a 3-4 to be the next Terrell Suggs. Despite being drafted by a team with a 4-3 base, he fell in to the ideal situation. No team is less concerned with size at end than the Colts and GM Bill Polian. He’ll learn the position from two of the best undersized ends in the league.
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE – NYG
Not sure how to classify him because it is hard to predict where people will draft him. I assume he’s going to be overlooked because he doesn’t appear to have an easy path to a starting job (unless Osi Umenyiora is moved before the season). Pierre-Paul gained notoriety as a physical freak, because he didn’t have much of a resume after being a JUCO transfer and playing just one year in Division I. However, he didn’t perform off the charts at the Combine. So Pierre-Paul is all about the dreaded p-word, potential. While I think he is a boom or bust prospect, the main reason I liked him more on April 23rd was because the Giants had drafted him. They rarely make mistakes in their DLine evaluations. While opportunity is not there now, Umenyiora has not shown a return to form from injury and is likely not long for this team regardless, while Mathias Kiwanuka’s contract is up next year. I wouldn’t reach for him as if he were a lock to be an elite DE, but I think most leagues will see him slip beyond the territory where the potential reward exceeds the risk.
Joe Haden, CLE – CB
This guy took a beating for an unimpressive 40-time at the Combine and now ends up out of the limelight in Cleveland. He is flying under the radar despite being an excellent technician at corner and a guy who is not afraid to stick his helmet in there to make tackles. Look for him to be a gunner on punt coverage too, offering an extra tackle or two here and there. There are sexier picks out there at corner, so Haden can make an excellent value pick in leagues that segregate corners and safeties. Expect Sheldon Brown to move to free safety, clearing the way for Haden to start opposite Eric Wright and opposing offenses to pick on him as a rookie.
Kareem Jackson, HOU – CB
Lacks the name recognition outside draftniks and ‘Bama fans that should allow him to fall down drafts despite being a lock to start as a rookie and great upside in run support.
Patrick Robinson, NO – CB
I’m higher than most on Robinson, giving him a borderline first-round grade as I moved him in and out of the round as my mocks progressed. After flashing skills of an ball hawk in the secondary his sophomore year, he digressed the next few years, but I think that has more to say about the quality of those Seminole defenses in having offenses choose to avoid Robinson, rather than a decline in Robinson’s skills. Look for last year’s first-round pick, CB Malcolm Jenkins to shift to FS to make room for Robinson in the top three rotation at corner.
Tyson Alualu, JAX – DT
A shocker with the 10th overall pick in the draft, this reeks of a panic pick by GM Gene Smith when Rolando McClain or C.J. Spiller failed to fall to them and they weren’t able to trade down. That said, Alualu is a solid player with decent potential to have the rare ability to post sacks as an interior player and should have the opportunity with predominantly one-on-one match-ups as the future under tackle who eventually replaces John Henderson. He also offers the flexibility to work at end in certain packages, bolstering his value.
Market Performers
Value should be commensurate with where they are drafted in fantasy leagues.
Derrick Morgan, TEN – DE
I think most share my opinion that Morgan is a tremendously solid player who should put up decent numbers, but doesn’t have the ceiling of a special player at the position like Simeon Rice or Julius Peppers. And I expect he’ll be drafted as such. I can’t get that Orange Bowl film where he matched up against Bryan Buluga out of my head.
Kyle Wilson, NYJ – CB
While drafted in the first round, I don’t expect many to reach for him in fantasy drafts because he is initially slated for a slot corner role with starters Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie in place. I like him to have a very productive rookie year as he’s targeted quite frequently with teams looking to avoid throwing at their starters. He could be a starter sooner than later, as Cromartie could implode off the field at any time.
Jared Odrick, MIA – DE
Going to Miami means he’s going to be a five-technique DE and hence of limited fantasy value. I do think he has the potential to be more of a playmaker than your typical converted DT who is asked to occupy blockers in a 3-4, but that just means his upside is the next Aaron Smith (PIT). More value in real NFL terms than fantasy, but not the wasted fantasy pick most 3-4 ends turn out to be.
Blue Chips
Sean Weatherspoon, ATL – OLB
I had a first-round grade on Weatherspoon coming out of the season and listed him as such going back to my first mock, pre-Combine. He is the most talented all-around linebacker in this class and will be a stud WLB for years.
Eric Berry, KC – S
Universally recognized as one of top talents in the entire draft, Berry lands in an ideal situation. A struggling offense will give him plenty of time on the field and a weak front seven should give him plenty of tackle opportunities. Berry could play either safety, but should start at strong safety and be an impact player from Week One. His nose for the ball in the air and ability for big returns after the pick are the reasons for comparisons to Ed Reed (BAL). DC Romeo Crennel knows how to utilize a multi-talented safety. Rodney Harrison had two of the best statistical seasons ever by a safety the two years he played all 16 games under Crennel (2003 and 2004).
Ndamukong Suh, DET – DT
A rare talent, Suh can be the rare player to make a fantasy impact on the interior line like Albert Haynesworth. You don’t want to draft him like a top defensive end, but especially in a league that segregates tackles and ends, you don’t want to ignore him like you might most rookie DTs.
Overvalued
Rolando McClain, OAK – LB
Until the linebacker situation in Oakland is sorted, McClain has to be considered overrated. As the first interior linebacker selected in the actual draft, he jumps to the top of IDP draft boards in most tackle-based leagues, which means he’ll be going too early for me until we know what is happening with the Raiders. What I think this means, and it’s not great for McClain, is that the Raiders are definitely heading towards a 3-4 defense. While the team continues to talk about their players in a 3-4 and pundits continue to ignore the clues, the evidence seem to be overwhelming. The move of DE Trevor Scott to SLB last year was the harbinger. The addition of tweeners Kamerion Wimbley and Quentin Groves, as well as the apparent willingness to part with two of their starting linebackers (Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard, both given just mid-level tenders) in the offseason makes it seem more evident. Now with the addition of McClain, who many evaluate as his best fit a 3-4, I really think this is what is being set up. You have an experienced, and successful, 3-4 end in Richard Seymour and with Tommy Kelly a player who is probably better suited as a five-technique DE. Wimbley, Scott, Groves and Sam Williams (another player who has probably been miscast in a 4-3) are all ideal fits for the outside in a 3-4. That leaves the inside, and where I see bad news for McClain. He is probably best suited as the SILB, since he doesn’t project strongly as a pass rusher or in coverage, making him the odd man out in the nickel and dime. Morrison or Howard remain as the WILB, and probably the best fantasy producer. McClain can still be a tackle-machine, but predominantly just a run-stuffer with Earl Holmes as his ceiling. Even in the best case scenario, the Raiders remain a 4-3 and Morrison is moved, to the outside or off the team, McClain doesn’t have the elite athleticism to project his value coming from more than tackles. That still makes him valuable, but not if you are taking him expecting the next Patrick Willis, like some will expect because of his high position in the NFL draft.
Brandon Graham, PHI – DE
With all due credit to HC Andy Reid and talent evaluation capabilities of his staff, I don’t like this pick. Even though it would appear to mean less fantasy appeal, I would have preferred to see Graham as a 3-4 OLB. Graham confirmed the Eagles told him he would be playing DE. I like him even less in the extensive rotation Philly uses in the front four, i.e. it will limit his snaps. His speed and quickness is solid, for a bigger end, but not at the freakish level of a Dwight Freeney to overcome being undersized. Also, his arms are shorter than Freeney’s, which means offensive linemen can get to his body quicker and/or easier, the other reason I would have preferred to see him get an opportunity in a 3-4.
Earl Thomas, SEA – S
There is a lot to like about a guy who should be a ball-hawking immediate starter at FS with the potential to be a top corner, as well. However, a few things concern me enough to not suggest reaching for him. He’s a bit undersized for safety and while he generates some big hits with his speed and timing, he needs to bulk up to be a sure tackler at this level and I worry about his durability if he doesn’t. While he is lauded equally for his potential as a corner due to his coverage skills, this usually ends up as an albatross for a player of his profile because if he isn’t an impact player from day one, a coach is tempted to bounce him around and inhibit his development, see Michael Huff and Reggie Nelson. I see more boom or bust than lock to be a success.
Gerald McCoy, TB – DT
I think he can be a great player, but the comparisons to Warren Sapp are inaccurate and unfair. He doesn’t have the bulk or strength yet to handle NFL offensive linemen. He isn’t as good as Tommie Harris was coming out in 2004, a more realistic expectation for the type of player he could become.
Devin McCourty, NE – CB
Corner has been a fantasy wasteland in New England lately. Now mostly that’s been due to quality of players at the position recently, but the rotation HC Bill Belichick uses and the schemes he employs doesn’t help their stats. McCourty will need to be the next Ty Law or Asante Samuel to standout, which is asking a lot. I like him significantly more in leagues that count return stats. He should earn their primary kick and punt return duties, as well as be a gunner on punt coverage.
Dan Williams, AZ – NT
Most people aren’t in leagues deep enough to need to draft nose tackles, but if you are, I wouldn’t bother with Williams. Nothing to dislike about his potential, but considering he went from late round grade to first rounder based on one season, why bother assuming even this small amount of risk?
Undervalued
Jerry Hughes, DE – IND
If the Ravens, Pats or Dolphins took him, I’d classify him as a blue chipper. I like his potential enough in a 3-4 to be the next Terrell Suggs. Despite being drafted by a team with a 4-3 base, he fell in to the ideal situation. No team is less concerned with size at end than the Colts and GM Bill Polian. He’ll learn the position from two of the best undersized ends in the league.
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE – NYG
Not sure how to classify him because it is hard to predict where people will draft him. I assume he’s going to be overlooked because he doesn’t appear to have an easy path to a starting job (unless Osi Umenyiora is moved before the season). Pierre-Paul gained notoriety as a physical freak, because he didn’t have much of a resume after being a JUCO transfer and playing just one year in Division I. However, he didn’t perform off the charts at the Combine. So Pierre-Paul is all about the dreaded p-word, potential. While I think he is a boom or bust prospect, the main reason I liked him more on April 23rd was because the Giants had drafted him. They rarely make mistakes in their DLine evaluations. While opportunity is not there now, Umenyiora has not shown a return to form from injury and is likely not long for this team regardless, while Mathias Kiwanuka’s contract is up next year. I wouldn’t reach for him as if he were a lock to be an elite DE, but I think most leagues will see him slip beyond the territory where the potential reward exceeds the risk.
Joe Haden, CLE – CB
This guy took a beating for an unimpressive 40-time at the Combine and now ends up out of the limelight in Cleveland. He is flying under the radar despite being an excellent technician at corner and a guy who is not afraid to stick his helmet in there to make tackles. Look for him to be a gunner on punt coverage too, offering an extra tackle or two here and there. There are sexier picks out there at corner, so Haden can make an excellent value pick in leagues that segregate corners and safeties. Expect Sheldon Brown to move to free safety, clearing the way for Haden to start opposite Eric Wright and opposing offenses to pick on him as a rookie.
Kareem Jackson, HOU – CB
Lacks the name recognition outside draftniks and ‘Bama fans that should allow him to fall down drafts despite being a lock to start as a rookie and great upside in run support.
Patrick Robinson, NO – CB
I’m higher than most on Robinson, giving him a borderline first-round grade as I moved him in and out of the round as my mocks progressed. After flashing skills of an ball hawk in the secondary his sophomore year, he digressed the next few years, but I think that has more to say about the quality of those Seminole defenses in having offenses choose to avoid Robinson, rather than a decline in Robinson’s skills. Look for last year’s first-round pick, CB Malcolm Jenkins to shift to FS to make room for Robinson in the top three rotation at corner.
Tyson Alualu, JAX – DT
A shocker with the 10th overall pick in the draft, this reeks of a panic pick by GM Gene Smith when Rolando McClain or C.J. Spiller failed to fall to them and they weren’t able to trade down. That said, Alualu is a solid player with decent potential to have the rare ability to post sacks as an interior player and should have the opportunity with predominantly one-on-one match-ups as the future under tackle who eventually replaces John Henderson. He also offers the flexibility to work at end in certain packages, bolstering his value.
Market Performers
Value should be commensurate with where they are drafted in fantasy leagues.
Derrick Morgan, TEN – DE
I think most share my opinion that Morgan is a tremendously solid player who should put up decent numbers, but doesn’t have the ceiling of a special player at the position like Simeon Rice or Julius Peppers. And I expect he’ll be drafted as such. I can’t get that Orange Bowl film where he matched up against Bryan Buluga out of my head.
Kyle Wilson, NYJ – CB
While drafted in the first round, I don’t expect many to reach for him in fantasy drafts because he is initially slated for a slot corner role with starters Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie in place. I like him to have a very productive rookie year as he’s targeted quite frequently with teams looking to avoid throwing at their starters. He could be a starter sooner than later, as Cromartie could implode off the field at any time.
Jared Odrick, MIA – DE
Going to Miami means he’s going to be a five-technique DE and hence of limited fantasy value. I do think he has the potential to be more of a playmaker than your typical converted DT who is asked to occupy blockers in a 3-4, but that just means his upside is the next Aaron Smith (PIT). More value in real NFL terms than fantasy, but not the wasted fantasy pick most 3-4 ends turn out to be.
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