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2011 Coach Otis All-Value Team (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Otis
- Start date
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Here are some players whom actually are good value:
*note all ADPs are from AntSports
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick (20th QB) After taking over last year in week 3, Fitz did everything you want from a fantasy QB. Consistency? Only 1 game without a TD. Big games? Lit up the Ravens and Bengals for 300+ yards and 4 TDs. Fitz was the 10th best QB in FF points per game last year. There is no competition and he is clearly the guy in Buffalo.
Rex Grossman (33rd QB) There are rumors of Beck being the starter, but he's hurt and Grossman is performing well right now. He may have a short leash, but for a guy that can be had at the end of nearly any draft, Grossman is good value. He started the last 3 games of 2011 and put up 840 yards and 7 TDs against Dallas, NYG and Jacksonville.
RB
Javon Ringer (53rd RB) Now this is all dependent on what happens with Johnson's contract. Ringer gives some options: a Johnson holdout and you have yourself a starting back who is likely to get 15-20 touches a game or you have a great trade bait for the Chris Johnson owner.
Thomas Jones (62nd RB) I know he is old and he really showed signs of slowing down last year. However, he has had a nice long offseason to recover and anyone that knows Thomas Jones also knows there isn't a player in the league in better physical shape. He is the #2 guy on a KC team that led the NFL in rushing last year. Since there are only a dozen or so true feature backs and everyone else is part of a platoon, why not go after the guy whom is part of the top rushing attack in the league? In addition, if Charles is hurt, Jones becomes the man by default.
WR
Mario Manningham (25th WR) Manningham only got 7 starts last year and was targeted just 92 times which was the least amount of targets of any top 20 WR last season. However, his production was excellent: 944 yards 9 TDs. Now that Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone, the Giants will likely have to throw more balls Manningham's way in 2011.
Roy Williams (44th WR) Certainly a big chance that Roy flames out because it is Roy Williams. However, he knows the offense, Chicago is going to throw the ball a lot, and we saw what Cutler can do when he has a big target to throw to. With Olson gone, he seems to be the only real redzone target they have. Roy could certainly flame out, but as the 44th WR, his ceiling makes this a very safe risk/reward play. I don't know if there are any other WRs going this late that have such a clear route to being a top 15-20 WR in fantasy.
TE
Such a deep position that is full of guys with good value: Zach Miller, Kendricks, Moeaki, Keller, Olson, Boss.
*note all ADPs are from AntSports
QB
Ryan Fitzpatrick (20th QB) After taking over last year in week 3, Fitz did everything you want from a fantasy QB. Consistency? Only 1 game without a TD. Big games? Lit up the Ravens and Bengals for 300+ yards and 4 TDs. Fitz was the 10th best QB in FF points per game last year. There is no competition and he is clearly the guy in Buffalo.
Rex Grossman (33rd QB) There are rumors of Beck being the starter, but he's hurt and Grossman is performing well right now. He may have a short leash, but for a guy that can be had at the end of nearly any draft, Grossman is good value. He started the last 3 games of 2011 and put up 840 yards and 7 TDs against Dallas, NYG and Jacksonville.
RB
Javon Ringer (53rd RB) Now this is all dependent on what happens with Johnson's contract. Ringer gives some options: a Johnson holdout and you have yourself a starting back who is likely to get 15-20 touches a game or you have a great trade bait for the Chris Johnson owner.
Thomas Jones (62nd RB) I know he is old and he really showed signs of slowing down last year. However, he has had a nice long offseason to recover and anyone that knows Thomas Jones also knows there isn't a player in the league in better physical shape. He is the #2 guy on a KC team that led the NFL in rushing last year. Since there are only a dozen or so true feature backs and everyone else is part of a platoon, why not go after the guy whom is part of the top rushing attack in the league? In addition, if Charles is hurt, Jones becomes the man by default.
WR
Mario Manningham (25th WR) Manningham only got 7 starts last year and was targeted just 92 times which was the least amount of targets of any top 20 WR last season. However, his production was excellent: 944 yards 9 TDs. Now that Steve Smith and Kevin Boss are gone, the Giants will likely have to throw more balls Manningham's way in 2011.
Roy Williams (44th WR) Certainly a big chance that Roy flames out because it is Roy Williams. However, he knows the offense, Chicago is going to throw the ball a lot, and we saw what Cutler can do when he has a big target to throw to. With Olson gone, he seems to be the only real redzone target they have. Roy could certainly flame out, but as the 44th WR, his ceiling makes this a very safe risk/reward play. I don't know if there are any other WRs going this late that have such a clear route to being a top 15-20 WR in fantasy.
TE
Such a deep position that is full of guys with good value: Zach Miller, Kendricks, Moeaki, Keller, Olson, Boss.
Maybe this will be the year that Larry Johnson and Eddie Royal blow up. Right, Otis?
Serious pwnage happening here.....
I'm not sure which is better and more entertaining- the original post by Otis or the responses by people taking the original post as a dead-serious-meant-to-be-used-as-a-rankings-bible-this-is-how-he-would-actually-draft type post. In a mild upset, I think I'm actually giving the nod in humour to the posters attempting to criticize Otis for his "calls" in such a serious manner. Well played, my friend.
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njherdfan
Footballguy
Otis
Footballguy
No kidding.
Joe T
Footballguy
Actually, no I don't remember it that way. I remember the guy being extremely overrated.Please see 2005 when he was the #5 RB on the FBG RB list. He never ever lived up to his draft position.'Otis said:
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR, but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.'BobbyLayne said:
CalBear
Footballguy
By his own predictions, he hit on exactly one, Matt Forte, and that was a fairly weak hit. Many of the others were misses by the length of several football fields.Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR, but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.'BobbyLayne said:
Touchdown There
Footballguy
After reading this, I now realize that anyone on the Hardesty train is doing so because they think that Hardesty is a much better "talent" than Hillis. No matter how many times you tell the Hardesty owners to go watch some Hillis tape, they never seem to listen.Otis, imagine you are a safety in the NFL. Hillis takes a pitch to the outside and you have to come up hard to get him. Hillis reaches full speed and you are at full speed, what do you do? Do you shoot his knees? Maybe you want to drive him back? Maybe you can catch him from the side or behind?Let's start with the obvious. Gore and McGahee got hurt in college which impacted their draft day perceptions. They were on the road to recovery when the teams selected them. Hardesty, already perceived as an oft injured got, tore his ACL last summer! So he's much further behind in his road to recovery than either McGahee or Gore were. As if that weren't enough, Hardesty attempted to come back and yet again missed 2+ weeks of camp with, you guessed it, a sore knee. On top of that, he's been outplayed in camp (since he return on Monday) by Brandon Jackson. :XRB
Montario Hardesty
Remember when Willis McGahee came into the league and everyone was all "oh man he's so injured and toast, I ain't touching him," and then the guy actually ended up being really good? And then the same sort of thing happened with this guy Frank Gore and he ended up being one of the best running backs in football, period? Well sweet bejeezus, here we are again. It's like Zeus himself reached down from the sky and poured sweet godly nectar right into my beak. It's that easy. If I've learned anything through all my years of shark killing, it's that the super talent shines through eventually. Hardesty is a ridiculously naturally gifted running back. It's like a bunch of geneticists sat around in a lab 20 years ago and pieced together the perfect running back from scratch, and out popped baby Montario.
"But Otis, that big Hillis guy is so good."It's 2011 now, gang. Not 2010. Stop living in the past. And in 2011, things are different, and Hardesty is the starting running back for the Browns by week 5, and he puts up gaudy numbers for the rest of the year, and then in 2012 we're all sitting around this time of year talking about how he's a top 5 pick in 2012 drafts.
And last but not least, Hillis is being CRIMINALLY undervalued. But I already articulated my thoughts on that in the Player Spotlight, so folks can go read that if they want to understand my views further.
Do you see why coaches like Hillis? He creates a problem for defenders. He is much more than a one trick pony and will take what you give him.
Otis, look at the facts. Hillis is a fan favorite. Colt McCoy wants Hillis behind him. Hardesty is still having knee issues. The only way Hardesty breaks out this year is if Hillis goes down with a major injury (assuming Hardesty is even suited up with his knee). I cannot understand why you would put Hardesty on your all-value team. I would put the odds of a Hardesty breakout at 5%.
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SYMPHONY X
Footballguy
I was gonna pass on Hillis this year, and grab either Gore or Ingram instead, UNTIL I watched that Hillis highlight reel from last year...what the heck is everyone missing here? Hillis finished as the #2 fantasy RB in PPR leagues last year, so why not an encore? Top ten appears to be his floor, barring injury of course. I am firmly aboard the Hillis bandwagon!Very entertaining read OTIS..props to you for adding some humor to a hobby that a lot of people take too seriously..including myself! While I agree that Benson is a nice value this year, I just can't bring myself to owning ANY Bengals player. I think it brings bad karma to your team or something. My advice to anyone who has a Bengal on their fantasy squad: Travel to India (the flight will pay for itself**) and go to the temple, pray to that hindu goddess lady, light a coconut on fire, and toss it to the ground with ALL YOUR MIGHT, hoping and praying that it breaks in half!! If the coconut don't break, then your team is surely doomed. Send any Bengal player immediately to the waiver-wire would be my advice.After reading this, I now realize that anyone on the Hardesty train is doing so because they think that Hardesty is a much better "talent" than Hillis. No matter how many times you tell the Hardesty owners to go watch some Hillis tape, they never seem to listen.Otis, imagine you are a safety in the NFL. Hillis takes a pitch to the outside and you have to come up hard to get him. Hillis reaches full speed and you are at full speed, what do you do? Do you shoot his knees? Maybe you want to drive him back? Maybe you can catch him from the side or behind?Let's start with the obvious. Gore and McGahee got hurt in college which impacted their draft day perceptions. They were on the road to recovery when the teams selected them. Hardesty, already perceived as an oft injured got, tore his ACL last summer! So he's much further behind in his road to recovery than either McGahee or Gore were. As if that weren't enough, Hardesty attempted to come back and yet again missed 2+ weeks of camp with, you guessed it, a sore knee. On top of that, he's been outplayed in camp (since he return on Monday) by Brandon Jackson. :XRB
Montario Hardesty
Remember when Willis McGahee came into the league and everyone was all "oh man he's so injured and toast, I ain't touching him," and then the guy actually ended up being really good? And then the same sort of thing happened with this guy Frank Gore and he ended up being one of the best running backs in football, period? Well sweet bejeezus, here we are again. It's like Zeus himself reached down from the sky and poured sweet godly nectar right into my beak. It's that easy. If I've learned anything through all my years of shark killing, it's that the super talent shines through eventually. Hardesty is a ridiculously naturally gifted running back. It's like a bunch of geneticists sat around in a lab 20 years ago and pieced together the perfect running back from scratch, and out popped baby Montario.
"But Otis, that big Hillis guy is so good."
And last but not least, Hillis is being CRIMINALLY undervalued. But I already articulated my thoughts on that in the Player Spotlight, so folks can go read that if they want to understand my views further.
Do you see why coaches like Hillis? He creates a problem for defenders. He is much more than a one trick pony and will take what you give him.
Otis, look at the facts. Hillis is a fan favorite. Colt McCoy wants Hillis behind him. Hardesty is still having knee issues. The only way Hardesty breaks out this year is if Hillis goes down with a major injury (assuming Hardesty is even suited up with his knee). I cannot understand why you would put Hardesty on your all-value team. I would put the odds of a Hardesty breakout at 5%.
(disclaimer: I do not endorse the Hindu religion, but saw this ceremony on one of those Green channel documentary's. **Your airfare to India will only be worth it if you play in a high-stakes league where the prize money will cover your flight expenses.)
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jwb
Footballguy
Indeed. This is even more entertaining than the "Otis now lives in the back country of Long Island - let's help him plant grass and pick out some tools" thread. At least he hoped for (a little) real feedback there.
This year I see value in a STL WR, GB WR, SD WR, Carolina RB, Denver RB, NE TE.Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR'BobbyLayne said:
Clevland RB
A WR name Williams
Indy WR
NE WR
Washington RB
but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.
TheFanatic
Footballguy
Right. Easy as pie...This year I see value in a STL WR, GB WR, SD WR, Carolina RB, Denver RB, NE TE.Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR'BobbyLayne said:
Clevland RB
A WR name Williams
Indy WR
NE WR
Washington RB
but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Otis has assured me this is just a preliminary list. The full report will be out next week.
Thank God. My draft is in 2 weeks and I can't do it without these picks.
Podcast
Footballguy
Bulsh.
Otis
Footballguy
HawkAlert
Are you guys scooping up Ridley + Vereen? If not, I assume it's because the hawks in your league already have them? Basically, what I'm saying here is "hey man, we're doing to do a raffle to give away a million dollars, and we're only gonna give out two tickets in the raffle. Do you want these two tickets?" Don't be a fool. Take the tickets. Profit with the cool breezes in your face and sun on your tailfeathers.
Also, I know he's already rostered in your DynaZealot IIVX Big Money League, but that doesn't mean it's too late to trade for Reggie Bush. It will be by week three, when some gup in your league is dancing around his living room and pummeling you with texts about what a genius he is and how badly he's demolishing you in this week's games due to the explosive stat-compiling machine that is Reggie Bush. It's difficult to recover from that sort of thing. So wise up, because a bird in the hand is worth less than a hawk with the Bush.
Otis
Footballguy
Supplemental HawkAlert
By the way, I totally forgot to remind you that our last year's pick of Eddie Royal is still good. In fact, it's arguably even more good, because now he's so far down below the radar he's practically floating out there in the shark-riddled sea. The reality is that he's way better than last year's 59 catches would indicate. Look for him to break 80 catches, finish at around WR23, and contribute to lots of fantasy wins this year.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Can't wait for @hawkscreech
Make it happen.
Make it happen.
Otis
Footballguy
Oh it's up and running.
Dexter Manley
Footballguy
Sidewinder16
Footballguy
:following:
zoonation
Footballguy
I haven't seen quality from you like this in years.
CalBear
Footballguy
Yeah, whatever happened to Reshard Lee? That was definitely a record in terms of number of thread pages per career NFL TD.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Can someone run an all-time Otis historical analysis? I am curious on a hit rate with long shots like this.
CalBear
Footballguy
So far, I think his hit rate is "1" (Frank Gore in 2006).
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
So he picked Harrison when Hillis was the guy. Otis hit on the Cleveland running game.By his own predictions, he hit on exactly one, Matt Forte, and that was a fairly weak hit. Many of the others were misses by the length of several football fields.Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR, but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.
He picked Royal when Lloyd was the guy. Otis hit on the Denver passing game.
No shame in that.
Sarnoff
Footballguy
Top notch stuff from the Big-O. Returning to his pre-'marriage has sucked the life out of me' form. Staff position clearly in his future now.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
RTSCREEN:
rizzler
Footballguy
How many championships do you think were won with Royal and Harrison, exactly?So he picked Harrison when Hillis was the guy. Otis hit on the Cleveland running game.By his own predictions, he hit on exactly one, Matt Forte, and that was a fairly weak hit. Many of the others were misses by the length of several football fields.Those picks weren't as bad as I thought they would be. He saw the value in a Denver WR, but missed on which one it would be. Some solid picks otherwise. Sure he missed on a few, but it's not like he's Miss Cleo. Then again, according to the Federal gubment, Miss Cleo wasn't Miss Cleo.
He picked Royal when Lloyd was the guy. Otis hit on the Denver passing game.
No shame in that.
joffer
Footballguy
you're allowed to draft a team's running game?
bushdocda
Footballguy
Already more informative than TMR.
Otis
Footballguy
:hawkscreech:
Just to keep it real. I am not addressing your picks just the philosophy. I couldnt disagree more. You never "pass" on a pick. Your value pick in the 3rd was there at 1 and 2 so if you want him why not just take him? The shark move is to trade these picks. Trade out of the first round but you want to gain an extra pick doing it. The idea is to have 6 or 7 picks at the end of 5 rounds or 7-8 picks at the end of seven rounds. Even 4 picks in 3 rounds. These are real advantages and will set you way ahead. There is a lot to be said for trading out of the first round, there have been many seasons were the top tier RBs where mostly all busts or at least seriously underperformed their ADP
Otis
Footballguy
That's a great move if you want an advantage. The point here is to disadvantage yourself -- to tie one arm behind your back and still beat your buddy in a game of one-on-one. That's hawk.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
Exactly.Following the All-Value Team picks will definitely put you at a great disadvantage. Don't you people get it?
Hawk, son!
dagwood
Footballguy
Hence the reason that Hawks are higher than Sharks on the FF foodchain.
LOL, Well good luck with that. What does the Hawk Trophy look like and giant set of Kahonas?
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
Ben Gay wants an official review.
JamesTheScot
Footballguy
So which is the alter-ego, Otis or Gianmarco?
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