The Captain
Footballguy
12 team non-PPR dynasty.
Rebuilding team gave Lynch
Borderline playoff team gave Daniel Thomas.
Rebuilding team gave Lynch
Borderline playoff team gave Daniel Thomas.
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Some people seem to miss the point that Dynasty is not just about potential future value, it is also about present value. I find absurd the idea that swapping a 26 year old elite RB for an unproven rookie WR and some yet to be determined draft picks is a good trade.We have a pretty good idea of ADP is worth and the probability is that he is one of the few players that can single-handedly propel your Dynasty squad to the playoffs for the next 2-3 years (assuming you can assemble a supporting cast of marginal yet productive players).To most competitive dynasty teams, draft picks are just another piece of the puzzle--and more often than not, they are the pieces that are flipped for high value, to bolster an already strong team. Baldwin was a 2nd round rookie pick in many leagues, just this year. That mid-round 1st in 2012 and mystery 1st in 2013 don't have anywhere near the value to swing this deal towards being fair. Even if you MUST rebuild and covet draft picks, this was selling low.
What I'm saying, EBF, is that for a competitive, well-built dynasty team, Baldwin and two future firsts is NOT a lot of value to "dump" for a guy like Peterson, even if he is nearing the end of his prime. The 2nd and 3rd are just throw-ins for a deal like this.
Gronk's value isn't close to Matthews'. You start 2 RB, only 2 WRs and only 1 TE. The value of a top RB in this format is much more thant he value of a top TE. Matthews is an early 2nd round start up pick in this format, and Gronk is a 4th or so. And career length is an easy way to make bad trades. The fact that TEs last longer than RBs does NOTHING to make Gronk more valuable than Matthews.if I could flex Gronk in a PPR, I would rather have him over Mathews in dynasty. Right now he is in the Top 12 (excluding QBs) and would be the #2 TE, #4 WR or #8 RB. He is about 30 pts higher than Mathews right now and I would bet he scores more points the rest of 2011... Mathews is dinged, behind an injured OL on a team that is stuggling. Gronk has Brady and a team on the upswing. Plus TE's have a longer career than RBs.Of course, i build my dynasty teams around WR/QB/TE and fill in the RBs, so YMMV
I may be in the minority, but I think Gronk is a huge sell high. I doubt he keeps up this level of production; NE will eventually find a deep threat, Hernandez isn't going away, and I think there's a good chance Gronk regresses a bit so that he becomes a solid starter but not an uberstud. If I could get Matthews for him I'd do it in a heartbeat.Gronk's value isn't close to Matthews'. You start 2 RB, only 2 WRs and only 1 TE. The value of a top RB in this format is much more thant he value of a top TE. Matthews is an early 2nd round start up pick in this format, and Gronk is a 4th or so. And career length is an easy way to make bad trades. The fact that TEs last longer than RBs does NOTHING to make Gronk more valuable than Matthews.if I could flex Gronk in a PPR, I would rather have him over Mathews in dynasty. Right now he is in the Top 12 (excluding QBs) and would be the #2 TE, #4 WR or #8 RB. He is about 30 pts higher than Mathews right now and I would bet he scores more points the rest of 2011... Mathews is dinged, behind an injured OL on a team that is stuggling. Gronk has Brady and a team on the upswing. Plus TE's have a longer career than RBs.Of course, i build my dynasty teams around WR/QB/TE and fill in the RBs, so YMMV
I agree with you specifically about Gronk v. Matthews. However I think most people vastly underestimate the value of a top TE in dynasty. It is a position with very little turnover from year to year. Plus, the difference between Gronk's PPG and TE12 could very well be higher than the difference between Matthews' PPG and RB24. So far this season, Gronk is at 19 PPG (1 point PPR) and TE 12 Kellen Winslow is at 10.6 PPG. As of now, Gronk gives you 8 PPG over the lowest starter.Gronk's value isn't close to Matthews'. You start 2 RB, only 2 WRs and only 1 TE. The value of a top RB in this format is much more thant he value of a top TE. Matthews is an early 2nd round start up pick in this format, and Gronk is a 4th or so.if I could flex Gronk in a PPR, I would rather have him over Mathews in dynasty. Right now he is in the Top 12 (excluding QBs) and would be the #2 TE, #4 WR or #8 RB. He is about 30 pts higher than Mathews right now and I would bet he scores more points the rest of 2011... Mathews is dinged, behind an injured OL on a team that is stuggling. Gronk has Brady and a team on the upswing. Plus TE's have a longer career than RBs.
Of course, i build my dynasty teams around WR/QB/TE and fill in the RBs, so YMMV
And career length is an easy way to make bad trades. The fact that TEs last longer than RBs does NOTHING to make Gronk more valuable than Matthews.
You are looking at raw VORP, which is more than most owners do, but still flawed. The first thing that sticks out, is that there is a flex spot. That adds value to the RB position. The obvious reason - the VBD calculation is changed. But also, because you start twice as many RBs as TEs, it does you well to have more RBs than TEs. Because there is a flex spot that gives value to RBs that you have above and beyond 3, RB2/RB3 are very valuable. On top of that, as you said, the TE position has very little turnover, while every owner in the league is going crazy looking for a RB that even offers 8-10PPG. Without going into it too much - the RB2 position, in my opinion, is the biggest way to have an advantage over your opponent. If you can come away with two RB1 in a draft, you are almost certain to compete from the beginning. If you can come away with 2x YOUNG RBs - you are one of the better teams in the league - or at least on pace to be.I agree with you specifically about Gronk v. Matthews. However I think most people vastly underestimate the value of a top TE in dynasty. It is a position with very little turnover from year to year. Plus, the difference between Gronk's PPG and TE12 could very well be higher than the difference between Matthews' PPG and RB24.
So far this season, Gronk is at 19 PPG (1 point PPR) and TE 12 Kellen Winslow is at 10.6 PPG. As of now, Gronk gives you 8 PPG over the lowest starter.
Meanwhile, Matthews is at 16.5 PPG and RB 24 is right around 12 PPG (Blount, McGahee, Mendenhall) and thus gives you only 4.5 PPG over the lowest starter.
Perhaps the "PPG over worst starter" method I use as a rough value indicator (I adjust up/down depending on a lot of other factors) is a simplistic method. However, I do think it shows that someone who values Gronk up there with guys like Matthews isn't out of their mind as he has arguably been more valuable this season and they're the same age.
I would agree with this if this were a redraft, but what Gronk and Graham are doing is rediculous. I expect a regression to the mean on both of them, and they could both have a 25% regression and still be TE1 and 2.I agree with you specifically about Gronk v. Matthews. However I think most people vastly underestimate the value of a top TE in dynasty. It is a position with very little turnover from year to year. Plus, the difference between Gronk's PPG and TE12 could very well be higher than the difference between Matthews' PPG and RB24. So far this season, Gronk is at 19 PPG (1 point PPR) and TE 12 Kellen Winslow is at 10.6 PPG. As of now, Gronk gives you 8 PPG over the lowest starter.Gronk's value isn't close to Matthews'. You start 2 RB, only 2 WRs and only 1 TE. The value of a top RB in this format is much more thant he value of a top TE. Matthews is an early 2nd round start up pick in this format, and Gronk is a 4th or so.if I could flex Gronk in a PPR, I would rather have him over Mathews in dynasty. Right now he is in the Top 12 (excluding QBs) and would be the #2 TE, #4 WR or #8 RB. He is about 30 pts higher than Mathews right now and I would bet he scores more points the rest of 2011... Mathews is dinged, behind an injured OL on a team that is stuggling. Gronk has Brady and a team on the upswing. Plus TE's have a longer career than RBs.
Of course, i build my dynasty teams around WR/QB/TE and fill in the RBs, so YMMV
And career length is an easy way to make bad trades. The fact that TEs last longer than RBs does NOTHING to make Gronk more valuable than Matthews.
Meanwhile, Matthews is at 16.5 PPG and RB 24 is right around 12 PPG (Blount, McGahee, Mendenhall) and thus gives you only 4.5 PPG over the lowest starter.
Perhaps the "PPG over worst starter" method I use as a rough value indicator (I adjust up/down depending on a lot of other factors) is a simplistic method. However, I do think it shows that someone who values Gronk up there with guys like Matthews isn't out of their mind as he has arguably been more valuable this season and they're the same age.
This sounds great in theory, but in practice teams are highly reluctant to part ways with players like those in dynasty leagues. I don't think you could get AJ Green or Dez Bryant for Peterson straight up in most PPR dynasty leagues. In my PPR league those WRs you mentioned are all averaging about 14 points per game. Peterson is averaging about 19. That's a significant difference, but when you factor in their ages and the fact that WRs can typically play longer at an elite level than WRs, I don't think trading someone like Dez for Peterson is a slam dunk. I know I wouldn't do it. People talk about overrating future production. That happens a lot in dynasty leagues, but so does the reverse. You don't get credit for what players did in the past. Peterson is 26. He'll be 27 next season. That's getting up there for a RB. He has 1300+ career carries, so he's starting to approach the number where backs start to hit the wall. I would actually argue that this might be the best possible time to trade him. 2 years from now you won't get top 10 value for him. Should you try to get more than Baldwin + picks? Maybe, but I don't think it's such a bad deal. If Baldwin becomes the player KC expects him to be then he'll be a big FF asset in his own right. Add in two additional top 12 rookie picks and there are a lot of ways this move can break positive for the Baldwin side.To most competitive dynasty teams, draft picks are just another piece of the puzzle--and more often than not, they are the pieces that are flipped for high value, to bolster an already strong team. Baldwin was a 2nd round rookie pick in many leagues, just this year. That mid-round 1st in 2012 and mystery 1st in 2013 don't have anywhere near the value to swing this deal towards being fair. Even if you MUST rebuild and covet draft picks, this was selling low.What I'm saying, EBF, is that for a competitive, well-built dynasty team, Baldwin and two future firsts is NOT a lot of value to "dump" for a guy like Peterson, even if he is nearing the end of his prime. The 2nd and 3rd are just throw-ins for a deal like this.If your are going to trade ADP because you want to rebuild, you build the trade around the best young WR/RB you can get and believe in. You don't screw around with late first round draft choices.Replace Baldwin with Bryant, Julio, Maclin, etc and then you are closer to a deal that won't set your team back another several years.
You obviously have to adjust for flex spots, but it doesn't change the math all that much at all. There are a lot of WR/RB/TEs pretty tightly grouped in that 10-12 point range so even if you switch the numbers to look at RB 28 or RB 30 (depending upon how many of the 12 flex spots are used by RBs). Also, I didn't use the game Matthews was injured for his PPG total, just the games he has played in. But that's besides the point, because I personally would value Matthews higher than Gronk.You are looking at raw VORP, which is more than most owners do, but still flawed. The first thing that sticks out, is that there is a flex spot. That adds value to the RB position. The obvious reason - the VBD calculation is changed. But also, because you start twice as many RBs as TEs, it does you well to have more RBs than TEs. Because there is a flex spot that gives value to RBs that you have above and beyond 3, RB2/RB3 are very valuable. On top of that, as you said, the TE position has very little turnover, while every owner in the league is going crazy looking for a RB that even offers 8-10PPG. Without going into it too much - the RB2 position, in my opinion, is the biggest way to have an advantage over your opponent. If you can come away with two RB1 in a draft, you are almost certain to compete from the beginning. If you can come away with 2x YOUNG RBs - you are one of the better teams in the league - or at least on pace to be.I agree with you specifically about Gronk v. Matthews. However I think most people vastly underestimate the value of a top TE in dynasty. It is a position with very little turnover from year to year. Plus, the difference between Gronk's PPG and TE12 could very well be higher than the difference between Matthews' PPG and RB24.
So far this season, Gronk is at 19 PPG (1 point PPR) and TE 12 Kellen Winslow is at 10.6 PPG. As of now, Gronk gives you 8 PPG over the lowest starter.
Meanwhile, Matthews is at 16.5 PPG and RB 24 is right around 12 PPG (Blount, McGahee, Mendenhall) and thus gives you only 4.5 PPG over the lowest starter.
Perhaps the "PPG over worst starter" method I use as a rough value indicator (I adjust up/down depending on a lot of other factors) is a simplistic method. However, I do think it shows that someone who values Gronk up there with guys like Matthews isn't out of their mind as he has arguably been more valuable this season and they're the same age.
And, Matthew's has been injured - using his total numbers is not a fair or wise way to measure his value against players at other positions.
Prior to the injury yesterday, Peterson would likely be able to get you any WR in the game except Calvin. If you did a startup dynasty last week, he would be drafted before every single WR not named Calvin. Even with the current injury, I would be doubtful you would find many teams that would decline a trade of Dez or Green for him. I have no problem if someone thinks Baldwin will shine and be the next "Fill in the Blank WR".What this owner should have done if cut out the guesswork and asked for "Fill in the Blank WR" and those picks.This sounds great in theory, but in practice teams are highly reluctant to part ways with players like those in dynasty leagues. I don't think you could get AJ Green or Dez Bryant for Peterson straight up in most PPR dynasty leagues. In my PPR league those WRs you mentioned are all averaging about 14 points per game. Peterson is averaging about 19. That's a significant difference, but when you factor in their ages and the fact that WRs can typically play longer at an elite level than WRs, I don't think trading someone like Dez for Peterson is a slam dunk. I know I wouldn't do it. People talk about overrating future production. That happens a lot in dynasty leagues, but so does the reverse. You don't get credit for what players did in the past. Peterson is 26. He'll be 27 next season. That's getting up there for a RB. He has 1300+ career carries, so he's starting to approach the number where backs start to hit the wall. I would actually argue that this might be the best possible time to trade him. 2 years from now you won't get top 10 value for him. Should you try to get more than Baldwin + picks? Maybe, but I don't think it's such a bad deal. If Baldwin becomes the player KC expects him to be then he'll be a big FF asset in his own right. Add in two additional top 12 rookie picks and there are a lot of ways this move can break positive for the Baldwin side.To most competitive dynasty teams, draft picks are just another piece of the puzzle--and more often than not, they are the pieces that are flipped for high value, to bolster an already strong team. Baldwin was a 2nd round rookie pick in many leagues, just this year. That mid-round 1st in 2012 and mystery 1st in 2013 don't have anywhere near the value to swing this deal towards being fair. Even if you MUST rebuild and covet draft picks, this was selling low.What I'm saying, EBF, is that for a competitive, well-built dynasty team, Baldwin and two future firsts is NOT a lot of value to "dump" for a guy like Peterson, even if he is nearing the end of his prime. The 2nd and 3rd are just throw-ins for a deal like this.If your are going to trade ADP because you want to rebuild, you build the trade around the best young WR/RB you can get and believe in. You don't screw around with late first round draft choices.Replace Baldwin with Bryant, Julio, Maclin, etc and then you are closer to a deal that won't set your team back another several years.
That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.
Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.The other thing missing from above is that you talk about getting into the playoffs with "mediocre" players surrounding ADP. The point of Dynasty leagues isn't to squeak into the playoffs and hope to get lucky, it's to dominate your league for multiple years(aka - create a "dynasty"). In the early stages of a rebuild, it's all about getting as many lottery tickets as you can, and building your team around whichever ones pay off. Do you care which pick actually pays off? Not even a little. But you are much more likely to get the next stud (or 2) if you can pick 4 guys.
Wow, nice work. The MJD for Charles, Hernandez and a 1st is ridiculous. I'm guessing the guy way undervalued Hernandez. The only one of those trades I don't like for you is the trade for SJax. Seems like too much to give up for a RB with that many carries on a bad offense with a lot of injuries, but maybe I'm just a little too high on Rice.'Concept Coop said:A series of trades in the last 7-10 days.
MOX 8 (Q/R/R/W/W/F/F; WR=TE, No PPR)
Gave: Darren McFadden
Got: MJD, Deji Karim, 2012 1st, 2014 2nd
Then
Gave: MJD, Karim
Got: Jamaal Charles, 2012 1st, Aaron Hernandez
Then
Gave: Santonio Holmes, 2012 1st
Got: Dwayne Bowe
Then
Gave: Sidney Rice, 2012 1st, 2x 2nds (2014)
Got: Steven Jackson
In summary:
Gave: Darren McFadden, Santonio Holmes, Sidney Rice, x2 2nds (2014)
Got: Jamaal Charles, Steven Jackson, Dwayne Bowe, Aaron Hernandez
This is my best dynasty team and I am pretty proud of what I did in 12 months time. Through A LOT OF trading, I turned
Schaub
Peterson
MJD
A. Bradshaw
A. Johnson
2014 1st
2014 2nd
into:
Newton
A. Foster
L. McCoy
J. Charles
S. Jackson
D. Bowe
B. Marshall
P. Manning
A. Hernandez
S. Vereen
I agree with this. I had to do a little bit of a rebuild after a bad startup draft and instead of trading older guys (Brady, Gates, etc.) and guys in their prime (G. Jennings) for draft picks and rookies, I decided to try to build around those guys one player at a time and it went well. I went mostly in the direction of trading draft picks for older vets that I thought were undervalued instead of trying to assemble a team of all rookies.I'd personally be all about building around ADP as opposed to trying to trade him.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.The other thing missing from above is that you talk about getting into the playoffs with "mediocre" players surrounding ADP. The point of Dynasty leagues isn't to squeak into the playoffs and hope to get lucky, it's to dominate your league for multiple years(aka - create a "dynasty"). In the early stages of a rebuild, it's all about getting as many lottery tickets as you can, and building your team around whichever ones pay off. Do you care which pick actually pays off? Not even a little. But you are much more likely to get the next stud (or 2) if you can pick 4 guys.
My experience with dynasty leagues is that owners are very reluctant to sell top picks for anything less than elite value once those picks show some promise. Julio has three 100+ yard games in the first seven games of his career. Do you really think whichever owner in your league spent a top 3 rookie pick on him is itching to trade him? On the contrary, it's highly likely that whoever owns him expects him to become a top player and values him accordingly. This is just how it works in dynasty leagues. Earlier in the season I approached the AJ Green owner in one of my PPR leagues about a swap involving Ray Rice for AJ Green. He said he would be hesitant to even do Green for Rice straight up since he views Green as a top 5 dynasty WR.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.
The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.
Those two things aren't mutually exclusive. I've seen teams succeed by constantly trading their rookie picks for players, but I've also seen it come back to haunt them. On the flipside, I've seen teams build long term winners by accumulating rookie picks and prospects. Both strategies can work. The key is picking the right players. If you draft well in the rookie draft, you WILL hit some home runs. As I said earlier, if you throw 3-4 rookie picks against the wall, something's going to stick. The odds of you getting a Greg Jennings/Ochocinco/Vincent Jackson/DeSean Jackson/Dwayne Bowe/Roddy White/Reggie Wayne are actually quite decent.Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.
The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.
I agree with this. I had to do a little bit of a rebuild after a bad startup draft and instead of trading older guys (Brady, Gates, etc.) and guys in their prime (G. Jennings) for draft picks and rookies, I decided to try to build around those guys one player at a time and it went well. I went mostly in the direction of trading draft picks for older vets that I thought were undervalued instead of trying to assemble a team of all rookies.I'd personally be all about building around ADP as opposed to trying to trade him.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.
The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.The other thing missing from above is that you talk about getting into the playoffs with "mediocre" players surrounding ADP. The point of Dynasty leagues isn't to squeak into the playoffs and hope to get lucky, it's to dominate your league for multiple years(aka - create a "dynasty"). In the early stages of a rebuild, it's all about getting as many lottery tickets as you can, and building your team around whichever ones pay off. Do you care which pick actually pays off? Not even a little. But you are much more likely to get the next stud (or 2) if you can pick 4 guys.
First, we need league information. Because Jeter supplied the roster information, I am under the impression that it is an HA league QRWTFFF (Blind bid)If this is a league in which you only start one RB, Peterson's value takes a major hit. Then, we start comparing the projected duration of his career to other positions - not good for any RB.Next, we shouldn't pretend to know what the owner COULD have fetched for Adrian. In a start 1 format, AP is NOT more valuable than Mike Wallace and like WRs, in my opinion. They score right around him and will do so for a lot longer than he will. They also have less injury concern. Finally, the guy is rebuilding. Assuming this is the best offer he felt he could get, good for him. Adrian Peterson is a 26 year old RB who has missed time in two consecutive seasons, on a poor team. Adrian Peterson has NEGATIVE value to a team that has no shot at winning for 2-3 years, if trading were not an option. He hurts the likelihood of drafting 1st overall, yet, doesn't put the team over the hump. Peterson is worth more than 3x 1sts (counting Baldwin as one) and 2x 2nds, in most situations. But, assuming another deal wasn't an option, to a team that can't compete for 2-3 years, 3x 1sts and 2x 2nds > Adrian Peterson.I was about to say the exact same thing. If one is skilled at working the waiver wire and makes a few good draft picks and trades, it is not that difficult to establish a winning Dynasty squad built around an elite talent. My experience is that people who are always living years in the future usually are disappointed when that time arrives, as unforeseen variables seem to come into play and their future dream team turns out to be a mirage. Better to work with what you got IMO than to constantly trade it away always hoping that you will eventually grab the brass ring.
It is an HA league and I agree with most of what you said. The only detail left out of this discussion is how quickly the deal went down. He posted the ADP and another player were available and about 30 minutes later, this deal came through. I am not sure I was going to make an offer (I am currently the #1 seed) but I did not even have a chance to look. Just for reference, I have Wallace, Julio and Calvin in this league and likely would not give any of them for ADP.First, we need league information. Because Jeter supplied the roster information, I am under the impression that it is an HA league QRWTFFF (Blind bid)If this is a league in which you only start one RB, Peterson's value takes a major hit. Then, we start comparing the projected duration of his career to other positions - not good for any RB.Next, we shouldn't pretend to know what the owner COULD have fetched for Adrian. In a start 1 format, AP is NOT more valuable than Mike Wallace and like WRs, in my opinion. They score right around him and will do so for a lot longer than he will. They also have less injury concern. Finally, the guy is rebuilding. Assuming this is the best offer he felt he could get, good for him. Adrian Peterson is a 26 year old RB who has missed time in two consecutive seasons, on a poor team. Adrian Peterson has NEGATIVE value to a team that has no shot at winning for 2-3 years, if trading were not an option. He hurts the likelihood of drafting 1st overall, yet, doesn't put the team over the hump. Peterson is worth more than 3x 1sts (counting Baldwin as one) and 2x 2nds, in most situations. But, assuming another deal wasn't an option, to a team that can't compete for 2-3 years, 3x 1sts and 2x 2nds > Adrian Peterson.I was about to say the exact same thing. If one is skilled at working the waiver wire and makes a few good draft picks and trades, it is not that difficult to establish a winning Dynasty squad built around an elite talent. My experience is that people who are always living years in the future usually are disappointed when that time arrives, as unforeseen variables seem to come into play and their future dream team turns out to be a mirage. Better to work with what you got IMO than to constantly trade it away always hoping that you will eventually grab the brass ring.
If ADP was eligible for your rookie draft, the 1.3 owner wouldn't have had a chance at him. If you have an owner that grabbed Julio at 1.3 in a rookie draft, but isn't willing to swap him for what is basically the 1.3 OVERALL...I dunno.Then you have another owner that would have to consider parting with AJ Green for Rice.I mean--I'm going to sound like a schmuck here, but frankly-- if you got these two owners in your leagues, be thankful because you should be able to come out ahead of them. And if you are a rebuilding team with ADP in one of those leagues, it likely means you will have an early pick. You can probably trade that 1.1-1.3 pick to whatever random owner that overvalues it and get back Foster...cause you know he is 26 and they better trade him know while they can. ADP and Foster and now you have yourself a playoff teamMy experience with dynasty leagues is that owners are very reluctant to sell top picks for anything less than elite value once those picks show some promise. Julio has three 100+ yard games in the first seven games of his career. Do you really think whichever owner in your league spent a top 3 rookie pick on him is itching to trade him? On the contrary, it's highly likely that whoever owns him expects him to become a top player and values him accordingly. This is just how it works in dynasty leagues. Earlier in the season I approached the AJ Green owner in one of my PPR leagues about a swap involving Ray Rice for AJ Green. He said he would be hesitant to even do Green for Rice straight up since he views Green as a top 5 dynasty WR. Nobody wants to trade the next big thing, even if that player is just as likely to become Roy Williams as Larry Fitzgerald. So again, regardless of where Peterson would go in a startup draft, you might have a hard time actually trading him for players like Dez, Green, and Julio. And if you did manage to get a deal like that, it almost certainly wouldn't include two firsts and a second. This is one of those cases where message board reality differs from actual practice. I put Ray Rice and Larry Fitzgerald on the block in one of my leagues. No one made anything resembling a crazy offer. For the most part, all I got were those "4 junky players + a 2nd round rookie pick for your top 5 stud" type of offers. Everybody wants to get something for nothing and nobody wants to part with premium young players, even for an established star.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.
Didn't realize it was this type of league. It makes ADP a little less valuable, but I'm still not trading him for lottery balls.It is an HA league and I agree with most of what you said. The only detail left out of this discussion is how quickly the deal went down. He posted the ADP and another player were available and about 30 minutes later, this deal came through. I am not sure I was going to make an offer (I am currently the #1 seed) but I did not even have a chance to look. Just for reference, I have Wallace, Julio and Calvin in this league and likely would not give any of them for ADP.First, we need league information. Because Jeter supplied the roster information, I am under the impression that it is an HA league QRWTFFF (Blind bid)If this is a league in which you only start one RB, Peterson's value takes a major hit. Then, we start comparing the projected duration of his career to other positions - not good for any RB.Next, we shouldn't pretend to know what the owner COULD have fetched for Adrian. In a start 1 format, AP is NOT more valuable than Mike Wallace and like WRs, in my opinion. They score right around him and will do so for a lot longer than he will. They also have less injury concern. Finally, the guy is rebuilding. Assuming this is the best offer he felt he could get, good for him. Adrian Peterson is a 26 year old RB who has missed time in two consecutive seasons, on a poor team. Adrian Peterson has NEGATIVE value to a team that has no shot at winning for 2-3 years, if trading were not an option. He hurts the likelihood of drafting 1st overall, yet, doesn't put the team over the hump. Peterson is worth more than 3x 1sts (counting Baldwin as one) and 2x 2nds, in most situations. But, assuming another deal wasn't an option, to a team that can't compete for 2-3 years, 3x 1sts and 2x 2nds > Adrian Peterson.I was about to say the exact same thing. If one is skilled at working the waiver wire and makes a few good draft picks and trades, it is not that difficult to establish a winning Dynasty squad built around an elite talent. My experience is that people who are always living years in the future usually are disappointed when that time arrives, as unforeseen variables seem to come into play and their future dream team turns out to be a mirage. Better to work with what you got IMO than to constantly trade it away always hoping that you will eventually grab the brass ring.
You don't sound like a schmuck. Just ignorant. If you haven't played in the format, that is understandable. Adrian Peterson is not the 1.03 overall. In fact, I don't know if he is a first round pick. You have WRs who are scoring on pace with Peterson in PPR formats, that are 24-26 years old and project to have 6-8 years left, with less injury concern. Again, you only start one RB, one WR, one TE and then flexes fill out the rest of the starting lineup. Especially to a team that can't compete for 2 years, what value will Peterson offer at 28-29 years old? How will that compare to that of Julio Jones at 25?If you would take AP at 1.03 in any PPR format, the owners drafting after you would be better for it and likely to come out ahead of you.If ADP was eligible for your rookie draft, the 1.3 owner wouldn't have had a chance at him. If you have an owner that grabbed Julio at 1.3 in a rookie draft, but isn't willing to swap him for what is basically the 1.3 OVERALL...I dunno.Then you have another owner that would have to consider parting with AJ Green for Rice.I mean--I'm going to sound like a schmuck here, but frankly-- if you got these two owners in your leagues, be thankful because you should be able to come out ahead of them. And if you are a rebuilding team with ADP in one of those leagues, it likely means you will have an early pick. You can probably trade that 1.1-1.3 pick to whatever random owner that overvalues it and get back Foster...cause you know he is 26 and they better trade him know while they can. ADP and Foster and now you have yourself a playoff teamMy experience with dynasty leagues is that owners are very reluctant to sell top picks for anything less than elite value once those picks show some promise. Julio has three 100+ yard games in the first seven games of his career. Do you really think whichever owner in your league spent a top 3 rookie pick on him is itching to trade him? On the contrary, it's highly likely that whoever owns him expects him to become a top player and values him accordingly. This is just how it works in dynasty leagues. Earlier in the season I approached the AJ Green owner in one of my PPR leagues about a swap involving Ray Rice for AJ Green. He said he would be hesitant to even do Green for Rice straight up since he views Green as a top 5 dynasty WR. Nobody wants to trade the next big thing, even if that player is just as likely to become Roy Williams as Larry Fitzgerald. So again, regardless of where Peterson would go in a startup draft, you might have a hard time actually trading him for players like Dez, Green, and Julio. And if you did manage to get a deal like that, it almost certainly wouldn't include two firsts and a second. This is one of those cases where message board reality differs from actual practice. I put Ray Rice and Larry Fitzgerald on the block in one of my leagues. No one made anything resembling a crazy offer. For the most part, all I got were those "4 junky players + a 2nd round rookie pick for your top 5 stud" type of offers. Everybody wants to get something for nothing and nobody wants to part with premium young players, even for an established star.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.![]()
I posted above that I hadn't realized the original trade was in this type of league. My response above was in reference to what appears to be a more traditional league. If I misunderstood EBF, then my bad.You don't sound like a schmuck. Just ignorant. If you haven't played in the format, that is understandable. Adrian Peterson is not the 1.03 overall. In fact, I don't know if he is a first round pick. You have WRs who are scoring on pace with Peterson in PPR formats, that are 24-26 years old and project to have 6-8 years left, with less injury concern. Again, you only start one RB, one WR, one TE and then flexes fill out the rest of the starting lineup. Especially to a team that can't compete for 2 years, what value will Peterson offer at 28-29 years old? How will that compare to that of Julio Jones at 25?If ADP was eligible for your rookie draft, the 1.3 owner wouldn't have had a chance at him. If you have an owner that grabbed Julio at 1.3 in a rookie draft, but isn't willing to swap him for what is basically the 1.3 OVERALL...I dunno.Then you have another owner that would have to consider parting with AJ Green for Rice.I mean--I'm going to sound like a schmuck here, but frankly-- if you got these two owners in your leagues, be thankful because you should be able to come out ahead of them. And if you are a rebuilding team with ADP in one of those leagues, it likely means you will have an early pick. You can probably trade that 1.1-1.3 pick to whatever random owner that overvalues it and get back Foster...cause you know he is 26 and they better trade him know while they can. ADP and Foster and now you have yourself a playoff teamMy experience with dynasty leagues is that owners are very reluctant to sell top picks for anything less than elite value once those picks show some promise. Julio has three 100+ yard games in the first seven games of his career. Do you really think whichever owner in your league spent a top 3 rookie pick on him is itching to trade him? On the contrary, it's highly likely that whoever owns him expects him to become a top player and values him accordingly. This is just how it works in dynasty leagues. Earlier in the season I approached the AJ Green owner in one of my PPR leagues about a swap involving Ray Rice for AJ Green. He said he would be hesitant to even do Green for Rice straight up since he views Green as a top 5 dynasty WR. Nobody wants to trade the next big thing, even if that player is just as likely to become Roy Williams as Larry Fitzgerald. So again, regardless of where Peterson would go in a startup draft, you might have a hard time actually trading him for players like Dez, Green, and Julio. And if you did manage to get a deal like that, it almost certainly wouldn't include two firsts and a second. This is one of those cases where message board reality differs from actual practice. I put Ray Rice and Larry Fitzgerald on the block in one of my leagues. No one made anything resembling a crazy offer. For the most part, all I got were those "4 junky players + a 2nd round rookie pick for your top 5 stud" type of offers. Everybody wants to get something for nothing and nobody wants to part with premium young players, even for an established star.That is debatable. Julio is a good example of a WR that likely could be available since he hasn't often been started. Dez Bryant, for all of his supporters, is still barely a WR2 and an owner might decide that dropping down to their next best WR (a guy like Harvin, or Antonio Brown) isn't that big of a drop off compared with being able to secure ADP for the rest of his career.'kardplayer said:The thing missing from the above is that someone has to have a good young receiver that doesn't start for them now (or can be easily replaced in their lineup, plus lots of picks to move. For example, the Julio Jones owner in my league only has a first, second, third and fourth from next year.The challenge with trading ADP is that if someone is signing him to make a run for 2011 and 2012, they just aren't going to give up a lot of "current" talent.![]()
Very unlikely, when you're trading them someone of the caliber of Peterson.Nevermind the fact that with future rookie picks there's always a chance the team you're trading with crashes out and finishes near the bottom of the standings, in which case your lottery ticket can skyrocket in value.
Faulk fell off. LT fell off. Westbrook fell off. No one lasts forever. Peterson could be a shell of his former self come 2013.Either way, one player doesn't win you a title on his own.Very unlikely, when you're trading them someone of the caliber of Peterson.Nevermind the fact that with future rookie picks there's always a chance the team you're trading with crashes out and finishes near the bottom of the standings, in which case your lottery ticket can skyrocket in value.
Loaded team and the favorite to win it all now. I loved the move for your team, but hated it for mineI'm the owner who traded for Peterson. In this league you can start up to four RB's so I never second guessed my decision to go after him when he became available. My team is already a strong playoff contender and I feel that getting Peterson could put me over the top. Here's the core of my starting lineup after the trade:QB - BreesRB - PetersonRB - McCoyRB - Jones-DrewWR - ColstonWR - Steve Johnson / Antonio BrownTE - GonzalezIt's definitely a "win now" move but even if I don't win a championship in 2011 my team should still be in an excellent position to win for a few more years to come.
Semi-fair point. You obviously want to position yourself to at least make the playoffs, but eventually, you need to make some moves to make yourself dominant otherwise someone else will, and then you have no real chance aside from luck. The key is to get yourself to the position where you can give a bunch of picks to get Adrian Peterson, but you have to build the rest of the roster to put yourself into that position first.Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.
I think the besides picking a QB, which I find isn't as important as you might think, most rebuilding comes late in rookie drafts and from the WW and FA pool. You definitey need to make first round picks count. More importantly though you have to snag value in the 2nd round and later. For instance you can get a quality starting QB in the 2nd round of many Rookie drafts. Do you need a guy like Cam Newton to win? No, because moderate QBs usually still put up more points than other positions. You can get a Ponder or Dalton in round 2 of a rookie draft. You can get a RB like Kevin Smith or Blount off the WW, or a WR like Hankerson in the 2nd or 3rd round of rookie drafts. The second most important thing is to move any players with value who do not have an elite upside. If you got a hyped rookie or someone off the WW who is playing well but doesn't have top level ceiling, move that player at the peak of their assumed value for an unproven player with a higher upside and more. For instance sell a guy like DeSean Jackson or Mike Williams (TB) for a 1st round pick and an unproven like Greg Little or something. Then when Little improves, if he doesn't reach an elite level flip him the same as you did with DeSean or Williams until you have the likes of LeSean McCoy, Aj Green, or Demarco Murray.Semi-fair point. You obviously want to position yourself to at least make the playoffs, but eventually, you need to make some moves to make yourself dominant otherwise someone else will, and then you have no real chance aside from luck. The key is to get yourself to the position where you can give a bunch of picks to get Adrian Peterson, but you have to build the rest of the roster to put yourself into that position first.Mostly disagree with the above. The idea of "dominating for multiple years" is what often leads teams to continue to rebuild year after year, throwing darts at the rookie draft, hoping for a jackpot. There is another good formula for "dominating for multiple years"-- getting one of the best 2-3 RBs for Jonathan Baldwin and a couple draft picks.The best strategy, in my opinion, is to build a roster that will be in the playoffs as many years as often as possible. At that point, so much luck is involved with matchups, players getting injured, etc that I just want to get there as many times and have a chance at the title.
Ouch. I know many on here don't think much of Crabtree, but I do. He seems to be Smith's #1 target finally. As I've said in other threads on the subject, Harbaugh's presence in only going to make him better. Not a believer in Sanchez.i give:michael crabtree2013 3rdi get:santonio holmes
I have to agree. I think the 3rd rounder probably/hopefully isn't worth all that much. But I think Crabtree has a brighter future as well.Ouch. I know many on here don't think much of Crabtree, but I do. He seems to be Smith's #1 target finally. As I've said in other threads on the subject, Harbaugh's presence in only going to make him better. Not a believer in Sanchez.i give:michael crabtree2013 3rdi get:santonio holmes
This is a tough one. If you end up winning it all, of course it will have paid off. If not, and Charles returns to form for 3+ years, it could be a bad trade. The value of the draft pick, seeing as how it is a year away, and the owner just added Charles, is a question mark.'Andrew74 said:I am torn on this trade. Standard start 1/2/3/1 with .5 PPR.I get: SJax/ 2nd (prob 3-4)/ 2013 1st (team has been really bad, so expect to be top 6)I send: Charles/Gates/3rd (6-8)/2013 2nd (should b bottom half)I have Graham and Celek, with Rudolph and Kendricks on WW. I really needed a RB this year as I should be 2nd seed.
Not a fan of either. I think you should have given up more for a better option. Maybe the 1st + Daniels for Romo, Roethlisberger, et cetera. Vick can be had cheap right now and will be back for the playoffs.I really needed a QB for the playoff run. I was throwing up 0 or negative points most weeks from QB and barely winning games. I took a chance on two.I gave:1st Round (still have another 1st rounder)2 4th RoundI get:Flacco_______________________________________________I gave:O. Daniels (still have Gates)I get:Kolb
# of teams in the league?I really needed a QB for the playoff run. I was throwing up 0 or negative points most weeks from QB and barely winning games. I took a chance on two.I gave:1st Round (still have another 1st rounder)2 4th RoundI get:Flacco_______________________________________________I gave:O. Daniels (still have Gates)I get:Kolb
Surprised someone still had Reggie White rostered tbh.12 team Keep 11 ppr .5 Rb. 1 wr. 1.5. TeTeam a givesR whiteJ finleyTeam b givesD MooreG olsen2012 2nd
I like Crabtree significantly more than Holmes. I thought I was the only one but I'm really liking what I see out of him this season - if he can get his foot completely healthy I think he has top 10 upside.I have to agree. I think the 3rd rounder probably/hopefully isn't worth all that much. But I think Crabtree has a brighter future as well.Ouch. I know many on here don't think much of Crabtree, but I do. He seems to be Smith's #1 target finally. As I've said in other threads on the subject, Harbaugh's presence in only going to make him better. Not a believer in Sanchez.i give:michael crabtree2013 3rdi get:santonio holmes
I like Fitz over Gronk so to me that's a good fair deal.This one has caused much more chatter in 1 of my leagues than usual. 12 teams, starter 1-2-3-1-flex, ppr:Larry FitzforGronk + 2012 1stGuying trading away Gronk has Jimmy Graham as well, but was weak at WR. A lot of WR2's & 3's but no "marquee" names other than Stevie Johnson. Also a lock to make the playoffs as a wildcard on points. Team trading Fitz is a total rebuild.
I think the deal is very fair on both ends, looks similar to my deal I made with Gronk.'todisco1 said:I like Fitz over Gronk so to me that's a good fair deal.This one has caused much more chatter in 1 of my leagues than usual. 12 teams, starter 1-2-3-1-flex, ppr:Larry FitzforGronk + 2012 1stGuying trading away Gronk has Jimmy Graham as well, but was weak at WR. A lot of WR2's & 3's but no "marquee" names other than Stevie Johnson. Also a lock to make the playoffs as a wildcard on points. Team trading Fitz is a total rebuild.