2012 DRAFT projected top ten order (1 Viewer)

[Bracie Smathers]

So many bad teams this season makes it difficult to project which teams will make top-ten picks in next year's draft.

Here is my guesstimate of how next year's first round draft order will go.

1. Indianapolis Colts 0-10

Projected finish 0-16

Remaining schedule Week 11 BYE, Nov 27 Carolina 1:00 pm

Dec 4 @New England 1:00 pm, Dec 11 @Baltimore 1:00 pm, Dec 18 Tennessee 1:00 pm, Dec 22 Houston 8:20 pm, Jan 1 @Jacksonville 1:00 pm

The Colts are 0-10 and are possibly the worst NFL in recent history. Over the last four games they have been outscored 137 to 27. UNBELIEVABLY BAAAAAAAAAAAD. Great news. I can guarantee Indy will not loose this Sunday, yep the over-used bye week joke but after the bye the Colts have a legitimate shot to win their first (and possibly only) game of the season when they face Carolina.

2. St. Louis Rams 2-8

Project finish 2-14

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Seattle 4:05 pm, Nov 27 Arizona 1:00 pm, Dec 4 @San Francisco 4:15 pm, Dec 12 @Seattle 8:30 pm, Dec 18 Cincinnati 1:00 pm, Dec 24 @Pittsburgh 1:00 pm, Jan 1 San Francisco 1:00 pm

The Rams have won two of their last three and face Seattle twice and Arizona once but Seattle has a decent defense and the Cards are on a win streak. Although the Rams narrowly beat Cleveland Sunday they won on a botched 22 field goal attempt by the Browns with less than two minutes remaining. They also lost two starters to IR and QB Sam Bradford re-aggravated his ankle injury so the talent on a talent deprived team grew worse down the home stretch.

3. Minnesota Vikings 2-7

Project finish 2-14

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Oakland 1:00 pm, Nov 27 @Atlanta 1:00 pm, Dec 4 Denver 4:05 pm, Dec 11 @Detroit 1:00 pm, Dec 18 New Orleans 1:00 pm, Dec 24 @Washington 1:00 pm, Jan 1 Chicago 1:00 pm

The Vikings only wins have been against Carolina and Arizona. They have one winnable game left when they square off against Washington but that game is played in DC ON CHRISTMAS EVE! I don’t think that their hearts will be that game and the rest of their schedule is really rough.

4. Carolina Panthers 2-8

Project finish 3-13

Remaining schedule Nov 20 @Detroit 1:00 pm, Nov 27 @Indianapolis 1:00 pm, Dec 4 @Tampa Bay 1:00 pm, Dec 11 Atlanta 1:00 pm, Dec 18 @Houston 1:00 pm

Dec 24 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm, Jan 1 @New Orleans 1:00 pm

The Panthers have beaten Jacksonville and Washington and lost a close game to Minnesota so they may win their game against Indianapolis but that is the only game that appears winnable on the rest of their schedule.

5. Cleveland Browns 3-6

Project finish 3-13

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Jacksonville 1:00 pm, Nov 27 @Cincinnati 1:00 pm

Dec 4 Baltimore 1:00 pm, Dec 8 @Pittsburgh 8:20 pm, Dec 18 @Arizona 4:15 pm, Dec 24 @Baltimore 1:00 pm, Jan 1 Pittsburgh 1:00 pm

The Browns face Jacksonville this Sunday without Peyton Hillis or Monterio Hardesty or TJ Ward coming off a dumbfounding loss to the St. Louis Rams. Cleveland has only scored 1 TD over the last month and haven’t scored a TD in the first quarter ALL-YEAR! I don’t see them beating Jacksonville and the only other winnable game they have the remainder of the season is Arizona but they play them in Arizona.

6. Washington Redskins 3-6

Project finish 4-12

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Dallas 1:00 pm, Nov 27 @Seattle 4:05 pm

Dec 4 N.Y. Jets 1:00 pm, Dec 11 New England 1:00 pm, Dec 18 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm, Dec 24 Minnesota 1:00 pm, Jan 1 @Philadelphia 1:00 pm

The Redskins are terrible but I see them taking one from Seattle who have to travel across country to play a 1:00 PM game in DC.

7. Miami Dolphins 3-6

Project finish 4-12

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Buffalo 1:00 pm, Nov 24 @Dallas 4:15 pm, Dec 4 Oakland 1:00 pm, Dec 11 Philadelphia 1:00 pm, Dec 18 @Buffalo 1:00 pm, Dec 24 @New England 1:00 pm, Jan 1 N.Y. Jets 1:00 pm

Miami is on a two-game win streak and I think Daniel Thomas can and will contribute more. I see them winning one more game down the stretch but I don’t know who the victim will be.

8. Arizona Cardinals 3-6

Projected finish 4-12

Remaining schedule Nov 20 @San Francisco 4:05 pm, Nov 27 @St. Louis 1:00 pm, Dec 4 Dallas 4:15 pm, Dec 11 San Francisco 4:05 pm, Dec 18 Cleveland 4:15 pm, Dec 24 @Cincinnati 1:00 pm, Jan 1 Seattle 4:15 pm

The Cards have their game at home against Cleveland for at least one more victory down the stretch.

9. Kansas City Chiefs 4-5

Project finish 5-11

Remaining schedule Nov 21 @New England 8:30 pm, Nov 27 Pittsburgh 8:20 pm, Dec 4 @Chicago 1:00 pm, Dec 11 @N.Y. Jets 1:00 pm, Dec 18 Green Bay 1:00 pm, Dec 24 Oakland 1:00 pm, Jan 1 @Denver 4:15 pm

KC has one more win in them but I don’t know who.

10. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-6

Project finish 5-11

Remaining schedule Nov 20 @Cleveland 1:00 pm, Nov 27 Houston 1:00 pm, Dec 5 San Diego 8:30 pm, Dec 11 Tampa Bay 1:00 pm, Dec 15 @Atlanta 8:20 pm, Dec 24 @Tennessee 1:00 pm, Jan 1 Indianapolis 1:00 pm

Jacksonville play Cleveland this Sunday and their last game is against the Colts, otherwise I see no other victories on their schedule.

How do others see the top-ten and lets see some top-ten draft projections and which names might go if the top-ten falls this or a similiar way.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

OK what I was hinting at was what happens with the top ten picks, specifically I was hoping to project how the draft would go if Peyton Manning comes back next year and the Colts are convinced his injury is healed and he is good to go.

I would imagine they are set at QB for the next three years and that would be too long to put Luck in a holding pattern.

Would Indianapolis put out their shingle for the top pick if Peyton Manning is back and ready by the time the draft rolls around?

I don't know which sort of players are available at this time or how they will fall out but it looks like if Manning is back that the Colts need to do some major work on their defense and possibly would be interest in a blue chip RB like Richardson if he comes out and projects as many have speculated. They may even be tempted to take the second or third best QB from the draft if they could also land more picks to help acquire players for the defense.

So if the top-ten picks go as follows and Manning is back with the Colts and is good for three more years I think the top pick could be available and many teams would be putting their hats in the ring to get Luck.

* need QB

1. Colts

2. Rams

3. Vikings

4. Panthers

5. Browns

6. Redskins

7. Dolphins

8. Cardinals

9. KC

10. Jaguars

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I shot the guys a question on their top-ten prospects and this is what Cecil came up with:

top10 regardless of position:

Andrew Luck (Stanford QB), Matt Barkley (USC QB), Matt Kalil (USC LT), Justin Blackmon (OkSt WR), Trent Richardson (Alabama RB), Johnathan Martin (Stanford OT), David DeCastro (Stanford OG), Quinton Coples (N. Carolina DE), Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama CB), Morris Claiborne (LSU CB)

To plug in top prospects with my projected top-ten I come up with the following:

1. Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (JR) 6' 4" 235

No one can pay the rumored price of three number ones and two second round draft selections to move up. If Peyton Manning comes back and is good to go his contract and age would make it tough to move him for fair market value so the question the Colts need to ask themselves is. If Peyton comes back and they are sure he is good for a few years would it be wise to consider taking less for Luck but gaining more value for the overall team?

2. Rams - OT Matt Kalil, USC (JR) 7' 6" 295

Rams got a bargain in WR Bradon ‘Money’ Lloyd so that takes the onus off of drafting a wide receiver with the top pick. The Rams drafted OT Jason Smith but they were playing him on the strong side but had to move back to OLT when Rodger Saffold struggled on the blind side. They have to do a better job of Sam Bradford.

3. Vikings - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (JR) (6' 1" 211 lbs).

QB Christian Ponder is a keeper. WR Percy Harvin is dynamic but is undersized and has migraine issues. Harvin is also fast and explosive, a perfect slot receiver. Blackmon is a legit number one wideout. Ponder needs to have a consistent go-to weapon to grow with to have any chance try to keep pace with the Packers.

4. Panthers - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama 6' 3" 190

The Panthers would prefer a blue-chip wideout but they need impact players so they go with a tall corner.

5. Browns - QB Matt Barkley, USC (JR) 6' 2" 230

Mike Holmgren will chime in on any franchise QB selection so this could be any of the top signal callers, the Big-Show will find the best available franchise quarterback to ensure his legacy in NFL history. Barkley has outplayed the field and there are whispers that Griffin may not come out and will stay in school so we will slot Barkley in as the pick for now.

6. Redskins - QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor (JR) 6' 3" 210

Skins are happy to drive away with the best available quarterback whoever it is so long as they leave John Beck and Rex Grossman in a dust cloud their rear-view mirror. If RGIII doesn’t come out they go with Lance Jones.

7. Dolphins - QB Landry 'Lance' Jones, Oklahoma (6' 4" 229 lbs).

Miami needs a franchise QB. Dade county had a hanging Chad issue in the past and the Dolphins have hung with Henne long enough. Current starter Matt Moore is suited to be a backup. The Phins reach but not too far for Jones.

8. Cardinals - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama 5' 11" 220

Chris Wells is there but one look at Dallas shows the impact that a true blue-chip RB can has on an offense. Richardson opens up play-action and gets a team to more easily convertible third and short situations.

9. KC - CB Morris Claiborne, LSU (JR) 6' 0" 177

The Chiefs have Brandon Flowers who makes big plays but he can get eaten up by the top NFL receivers.

10. Jaguars - DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina 6' 6" 272

The Jags have solid defensive tackles but would like to upgrade Matt Roth and Jeremy Mincey on the edges.

=================

I feel that if Peyton Manning is back that Bill Polian would take less for the top pick especially if he could get a top-ten pick in this draft to get a crack at Matt Barkley. Polian is almost seventy years old. He would keep and start Manning since it gives him his best shot to win now and that is more important for a 69 year old GM than someone younger who is looking further down the road. He could settle for a Matt Barkley if Peyton is able to give him a few more years of high quality play while at the same time he could get a blue-chip QB in the pipeline AND an extra first round pick this year with some extra later round picks thrown into the mix.

That is why I think if Manning makes it back he will start for Indy and Polian will trade the rights for Andrew Luck. I think the Browns would make the most sense provided they have a top-ten pick where Polian can find a blue-chip QB to put in the pipeline while he keeps the Colts operating at a high level with Peyton thereby gettnig the best of both worlds.

Seems to make more sense than taking Luck and letting him eat cap space on the bench.

Thoughts?

 

[BeTheMatch]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

 

[Gatorman]

Dolphins currently 2-7, not 3-6. Hopefully they stay at 2 wins, but I figure they have 1 more win in them.

 

[mtyson]

3. Vikings - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (JR) (6' 1" 211 lbs).

QB Christian Ponder is a keeper. WR Percy Harvin is dynamic but is undersized and has migraine issues. Harvin is also fast and explosive, a perfect slot receiver. Blackmon is a legit number one wideout. Ponder needs to have a consistent go-to weapon to grow with to have any chance try to keep pace with the Packers.

Sorry to pick at a little detail but Harvin hasn't had a migraine issue since they properly diagnosed the cause last year, sleep apnea. Ever since seeing Harvin played against him in college, Ponder has marveled at his skill and when drafted by Minnesota he was thrilled to have the opportunity to throw to him. Once they get their chemistry down, Ponder to Harvin should be a deadly combo. So, I don't see the Vikings dying to draft a WR.

 

[dgreen]

6. Washington Redskins 3-6

Project finish 4-12

Remaining schedule Nov 20 Dallas 1:00 pm, Nov 27 @Seattle 4:05 pm

Dec 4 N.Y. Jets 1:00 pm, Dec 11 New England 1:00 pm, Dec 18 @N.Y. Giants 1:00 pm, Dec 24 Minnesota 1:00 pm, Jan 1 @Philadelphia 1:00 pm

The Redskins are terrible but I see them taking one from Seattle who have to travel across country to play a 1:00 PM game in DC.

That game is in Seattle. I think the Redskins best chance at another win is Minnesota.

 

[noneother]

Beanie, ryan Williams and Trent... Wow...18 months ago... No way! Now. Oomph.

 

[mr roboto]

3. Vikings - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (JR) (6' 1" 211 lbs).

QB Christian Ponder is a keeper. WR Percy Harvin is dynamic but is undersized and has migraine issues. Harvin is also fast and explosive, a perfect slot receiver. Blackmon is a legit number one wideout. Ponder needs to have a consistent go-to weapon to grow with to have any chance try to keep pace with the Packers.

Sorry to pick at a little detail but Harvin hasn't had a migraine issue since they properly diagnosed the cause last year, sleep apnea. Ever since seeing Harvin played against him in college, Ponder has marveled at his skill and when drafted by Minnesota he was thrilled to have the opportunity to throw to him. Once they get their chemistry down, Ponder to Harvin should be a deadly combo. So, I don't see the Vikings dying to draft a WR.

Harvin is not the same type of receiver as Blackmon

 

[Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub]

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.

If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

You do know that you predicted Jacksonville to win 2 more games and then said you only see 1 more win on their schedule.

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

Plus they have Ryan Williams.

 

[Saint]

5. Browns - QB Matt Barkley, USC (JR) 6' 2" 230

Mike Holmgren will chime in on any franchise QB selection so this could be any of the top signal callers, the Big-Show will find the best available franchise quarterback to ensure his legacy in NFL history. Barkley has outplayed the field and there are whispers that Griffin may not come out and will stay in school so we will slot Barkley in as the pick for now.

8. Cardinals - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama 5' 11" 220

Chris Wells is there but one look at Dallas shows the impact that a true blue-chip RB can has on an offense. Richardson opens up play-action and gets a team to more easily convertible third and short situations.

Have to admit I differ on these a bit. Where the Browns are concerned, are we sure they are ready to move away from McCoy at this point? They have had zero running game this year and Colt has been under duress with literally no receivers or running game. I would think the Browns would love to take Richardson here. The Hillis fiasco is still going on and Hardesty hasn't really shown himself as the long-term solution.So if Richardson goes early, where do the Cards go? I could see either OT or DE here for them to improve their protection or pass rush. My guess they go best available at those two slots.

My 2 cents...

 

[Bracie Smathers]

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.

If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

Plus they have Ryan Williams....You do know that you predicted Jacksonville to win 2 more games and then said you only see 1 more win on their schedule.

I thought I mentioned Jacksonville's game this Sunday against the Browns and their last game against Indy for the two wins. I am not going to stake anything on a very early projection and don't expect to be entirely correct on final standings or on the players who will eventually be selected in May.==============

Per- Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.

If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

On Trent Richardson/Demarco Murray topic.

I think Demarco Murray is something very special and a SPECIAL RB like that is make for more than an average rushing game. If you look at Romo's game since Murray has busted out and where Garrett is utilizing him as a special RB it shows the effect. Example, this last game Romo had his highest QB Passer rating of his entire career. It wasn't just a matter of Murray breaking out, Garrett is changing his game plan in a way to accentuate the entire offense due to having a special RB.

Trent Richardson is a different RB but I think he can provide his own brand of being a 'special' RB and have that sort of effect on an offense.

I do not believe Beanie or Ryan Williams can provide that sort of an effect but more than likely the Cards will stand with those two so your point is solid.

======================

Per- BeTheMatch

Dolphins currently 2-7, not 3-6. Hopefully they stay at 2 wins, but I figure they have 1 more win in them.

Per- Gatorman

Dolphins currently 2-7, not 3-6. Hopefully they stay at 2 wins, but I figure they have 1 more win in them.

Then they would more than likely take Barkley but in this scenario I could see the three QBs going to those teams.

=====================

Per - mtyson

Sorry to pick at a little detail but Harvin hasn't had a migraine issue since they properly diagnosed the cause last year, sleep apnea. Ever since seeing Harvin played against him in college, Ponder has marveled at his skill and when drafted by Minnesota he was thrilled to have the opportunity to throw to him. Once they get their chemistry down, Ponder to Harvin should be a deadly combo. So, I don't see the Vikings dying to draft a WR.

I think Ponder has the potential to be a top QB so I would love to see him put in the best possible situation to succeed. The Vikes could use help in a few areas but I think if they are smart they will realize that accentuating the potential of Ponder will get them the best bang for their drafting buck and that a WR like Blackmon has potential to move safeties back and thereby opening up the running game with AdP.

If an offense has a RB like Peterson and a playmaker like Harvin and a young QB like Ponder, if they added a #1WR like Blackmon that sort of talent could explode like the Packers. I'd love to see it.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'd be really surprised if Indy traded the 1st pick. If Polian isn't fired, I think leaving the team with a franchise QB and set for the long term is even bigger for his legacy than going all in and trying to win short term with Manning. Plus, its unlikely they'll have any 100% guaranteed answers on Peyton's injury situation in the next 5 months.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'd be really surprised if Indy traded the 1st pick. If Polian isn't fired, I think leaving the team with a franchise QB and set for the long term is even bigger for his legacy than going all in and trying to win short term with Manning. Plus, its unlikely they'll have any 100% guaranteed answers on Peyton's injury situation in the next 5 months.

Peyton Manning is one the best QBs in NFL history. If Peyton Manning is healthy then the window of opportunity is open for the Colts. Their entire offense and defense is constructed around his talents or the offensive production that he can provide.If Peyton comes back and is healthy he should be fine for the next three or four years. If Manning comes back helath and the Colts drafted Luck then they get no help and the window of opportunity doesn't shut but Manning plus two first round picks to help out or even Manning plus a high first round QB AND extras seems like a smarter way to go. If the Colts take Luck and Manning comes back then it seems like a waste for, Manning since he would get no help out of the top pick, Luck since he would sit behind Manning, the Colts since their chance to win would decrease.I don't think the Colts could or would trade Manning.

 

[Proximo]

The colts are going to draft Luck; you're delusional if you think they'll rest their fate on Manning's neck.

 

[bengalbuck]

I'd be really surprised if Indy traded the 1st pick. If Polian isn't fired, I think leaving the team with a franchise QB and set for the long term is even bigger for his legacy than going all in and trying to win short term with Manning. Plus, its unlikely they'll have any 100% guaranteed answers on Peyton's injury situation in the next 5 months.

Peyton Manning is one the best QBs in NFL history. If Peyton Manning is healthy then the window of opportunity is open for the Colts. Their entire offense and defense is constructed around his talents or the offensive production that he can provide.If Peyton comes back and is healthy he should be fine for the next three or four years. If Manning comes back helath and the Colts drafted Luck then they get no help and the window of opportunity doesn't shut but Manning plus two first round picks to help out or even Manning plus a high first round QB AND extras seems like a smarter way to go. If the Colts take Luck and Manning comes back then it seems like a waste for, Manning since he would get no help out of the top pick, Luck since he would sit behind Manning, the Colts since their chance to win would decrease.I don't think the Colts could or would trade Manning.

We'll have to agree to disagree here. Manning turns 36 soon and he has had 3 neck surgeries in the past year and a half. He hasn't thrown a football in 6 months and still can't. Even in the absolute best case scenario, he gets some good medical news in the next couple months and can start throwing before April. But even then, there are absolutely no guarantees as to how long he'll be able to play. He'll retire before taking major risks with his neck. And if he is able to come back, there are no guarantees that he'll be able to play at a crazy high level where he can carry an entire bad team on his back. They almost have to take Luck.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'd be really surprised if Indy traded the 1st pick. If Polian isn't fired, I think leaving the team with a franchise QB and set for the long term is even bigger for his legacy than going all in and trying to win short term with Manning. Plus, its unlikely they'll have any 100% guaranteed answers on Peyton's injury situation in the next 5 months.

Peyton Manning is one the best QBs in NFL history. If Peyton Manning is healthy then the window of opportunity is open for the Colts. Their entire offense and defense is constructed around his talents or the offensive production that he can provide.If Peyton comes back and is healthy he should be fine for the next three or four years. If Manning comes back helath and the Colts drafted Luck then they get no help and the window of opportunity doesn't shut but Manning plus two first round picks to help out or even Manning plus a high first round QB AND extras seems like a smarter way to go. If the Colts take Luck and Manning comes back then it seems like a waste for, Manning since he would get no help out of the top pick, Luck since he would sit behind Manning, the Colts since their chance to win would decrease.I don't think the Colts could or would trade Manning.

We'll have to agree to disagree here. Manning turns 36 soon and he has had 3 neck surgeries in the past year and a half. He hasn't thrown a football in 6 months and still can't. Even in the absolute best case scenario, he gets some good medical news in the next couple months and can start throwing before April. But even then, there are absolutely no guarantees as to how long he'll be able to play. He'll retire before taking major risks with his neck. And if he is able to come back, there are no guarantees that he'll be able to play at a crazy high level where he can carry an entire bad team on his back. They almost have to take Luck.

You are correct, Peyton Manning has had three surergies on his neck. He got injured and played with a bad neck. His injury continued so he had his first surgery and played with continuing pain. He then had a second surgery and he played. He then had this third surgery and could not play but he has not retired.He seems determined to recuperate and play to me. If he didn't feel he could come back I think he would have announced his retirement. It is obvious that the Colts are nothing without him. I would imagine they would want him back so if he does come back and is good to go I don't think they have to draft Luck. That is my opinion.

 

[Assani Fisher]

the skins and vikings play each other, so one of them has to have one more win than you have them at

 

[Assani Fisher]

You are correct, Peyton Manning has had three surergies on his neck. He got injured and played with a bad neck. His injury continued so he had his first surgery and played with continuing pain. He then had a second surgery and he played. He then had this third surgery and could not play but he has not retired.He seems determined to recuperate and play to me. If he didn't feel he could come back I think he would have announced his retirement. It is obvious that the Colts are nothing without him. I would imagine they would want him back so if he does come back and is good to go I don't think they have to draft Luck. That is my opinion.

When a 35 year old player has had the same injury 3 times and misses and entire season "wanting to come back" definitely does not mean that theres a good chance he will come back at full strength.

 

[bigfeet_88]

2. Rams - OT Matt Kalil, USC (JR) 7' 6" 295

Rams got a bargain in WR Bradon ‘Money’ Lloyd so that takes the onus off of drafting a wide receiver with the top pick. The Rams drafted OT Jason Smith but they were playing him on the strong side but had to move back to OLT when Rodger Saffold struggled on the blind side. They have to do a better job of Sam Bradford.

I think he may be playing the wrong sport.

 

[bud reid gov job]

Per- Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.

If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

On Trent Richardson/Demarco Murray topic.

I think Demarco Murray is something very special and a SPECIAL RB like that is make for more than an average rushing game. If you look at Romo's game since Murray has busted out and where Garrett is utilizing him as a special RB it shows the effect. Example, this last game Romo had his highest QB Passer rating of his entire career. It wasn't just a matter of Murray breaking out, Garrett is changing his game plan in a way to accentuate the entire offense due to having a special RB.

Trent Richardson is a different RB but I think he can provide his own brand of being a 'special' RB and have that sort of effect on an offense.

I do not believe Beanie or Ryan Williams can provide that sort of an effect but more than likely the Cards will stand with those two so your point is solid.

======================

Not to split hairs here, but I think you misunderstood his point. Your comments about what a 'special' runningback can do to a team are certainly valid, however, his point was likely that Murray was not a top 10 pick, but was rather a 3rd rounder - thus, at that position, it's possible to add that special player later in the draft. For a team that has invested several other early draft picks on other potentially special RBs over the last several years, it seems unlikely to me they will give it another try, especially without really knowing what they have in Williams at this point. My guess is that they would rather use that 1st round pick on another position of need(unless of course they higher Matt Millen as GM before the draft next year).

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Per- Sudoku_in_the_Bathtub

With no 2nd round pick (and Beanie) thanks to that stiff Kevin Kolb, no shot Cardinals go RB. Too many defensive needs.

If anything with your Cowboy RB example, it shows you can wait on RB. I'd put the odds Cardinals go RB in the 1st at 50:1.

On Trent Richardson/Demarco Murray topic.

I think Demarco Murray is something very special and a SPECIAL RB like that is make for more than an average rushing game. If you look at Romo's game since Murray has busted out and where Garrett is utilizing him as a special RB it shows the effect. Example, this last game Romo had his highest QB Passer rating of his entire career. It wasn't just a matter of Murray breaking out, Garrett is changing his game plan in a way to accentuate the entire offense due to having a special RB.

Trent Richardson is a different RB but I think he can provide his own brand of being a 'special' RB and have that sort of effect on an offense.

I do not believe Beanie or Ryan Williams can provide that sort of an effect but more than likely the Cards will stand with those two so your point is solid.

======================

Not to split hairs here, but I think you misunderstood his point. Your comments about what a 'special' runningback can do to a team are certainly valid, however, his point was likely that Murray was not a top 10 pick, but was rather a 3rd rounder - thus, at that position, it's possible to add that special player later in the draft. For a team that has invested several other early draft picks on other potentially special RBs over the last several years, it seems unlikely to me they will give it another try, especially without really knowing what they have in Williams at this point. My guess is that they would rather use that 1st round pick on another position of need(unless of course they higher Matt Millen as GM before the draft next year).

I think Demarco Murray is special. Special RBs can be found late in the draft or early in the draft the tough thing is finding them not wherer or not a team can find one later in the draft. I think Trent Richardson is special and have't seen any other RBs quite like him in the last few drafts.

 

[Marauder]

I admit that I don't watch enough college football to consider myself qualified to disagree with any of these picks, but 6 out of the top 8 picks being offensive skill position players seems unlikely. Clearly this list was made by a fantasy football player.

 

[BigTex]

It would not surprise me one bit if the Rams drafted Trent. At some point they need to address the replacement at RB.

 

[Fensalk]

As a Browns fan I'd pass on Barkley because he doesn't have a strong arm. Arm strength is found in round 1. What do they say about Barkley? "His deep ball throw can be inconsistent, but there is enough evidence to say it shouldn't trouble him at the NFL level." That sounds suspiciously like how they described Brady Quinn as "NFL ready" and "he can make all the throws".

I'd take Barkley in round 2 or lower, or let someone else overpay.

Landry Jones has a strong arm. Now the negatives. He's raw. He locks onto receivers. He doesn't handle pressure well. If he doesn't have a work ethic at the pro level, maybe he turns into JaMarcus Russell.

You could go with the rule of 26-27-60. If an NFL prospect scores at least a 26 on the Wonderlic test, starts at least 27 games in his college career and completes at least 60 percent of his passes, there's a good chance he will succeed at the NFL level..

I would want to see Landry Jones' wonderlic score. If its high enough, I could be persuaded to take him. Otherwise, I'd suggest the Browns draft RB Trent Richardson, who is an excellent safe pick and great fit for the Browns offense.

 

[Fensalk]

It would not surprise me one bit if the Rams drafted Trent. At some point they need to address the replacement at RB.

####...If THAT happens, the Browns should probably consider trading down to someone who wants Barkley or Jones.

 

[Fensalk]

5. Browns - QB Matt Barkley, USC (JR) 6' 2" 230

Mike Holmgren will chime in on any franchise QB selection so this could be any of the top signal callers, the Big-Show will find the best available franchise quarterback to ensure his legacy in NFL history. Barkley has outplayed the field and there are whispers that Griffin may not come out and will stay in school so we will slot Barkley in as the pick for now.

8. Cardinals - RB Trent Richardson, Alabama 5' 11" 220

Chris Wells is there but one look at Dallas shows the impact that a true blue-chip RB can has on an offense. Richardson opens up play-action and gets a team to more easily convertible third and short situations.

Have to admit I differ on these a bit. Where the Browns are concerned, are we sure they are ready to move away from McCoy at this point? They have had zero running game this year and Colt has been under duress with literally no receivers or running game. I would think the Browns would love to take Richardson here. The Hillis fiasco is still going on and Hardesty hasn't really shown himself as the long-term solution.So if Richardson goes early, where do the Cards go? I could see either OT or DE here for them to improve their protection or pass rush. My guess they go best available at those two slots.

My 2 cents...

The Browns' brass is coming to the conclusion that McCoy is a game manager at best. If there is something clearly better than that in the draft, they'd take it. Otherwise, they'll just stick with him for another year.

 

[Fensalk]

Bret Favre and Cam Newton both scored low on the wonderlic but were fine in games started and completion percentage. But so was JaMarcus Russell. All 3 had strong arms. Landry Jones has a strong arm. You're going to have to convince me which player Landry Jones is going to be.

 

[Fensalk]

If you wanted to sum up the Browns problems since 1999, they took Tim Couch and Brady Quinn in round 1, neither of which had a strong arm. Should we make it three and take Barkley too?

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If you wanted to sum up the Browns problems since 1999, they took Tim Couch and Brady Quinn in round 1, neither of which had a strong arm. Should we make it three and take Barkley too?

I love QBs with big strong arms but I don't think that is the most important quality of a franchise QB. I won't disparage the arms of any top flight NFL QBs but I don't see big strong armstrength with Brees or Manning. I don't see special arm strength in Tom Brady or Aarron Rodgers.A few years back, I believe Boomer Easiason was asked about the arm strength argument. He had broken down film of the top QBs from the previous season so when asked about the importance of arm strength he had the stats so he asked the interviewer how many deep passes (over 40 yards in the air) that (I don't recall who it was the top QB from that season I think Farve or Manning) had attempted that season?The interviewer assumed it was a large amount but he guessed conservatively and said around fifty attempts, almost before he finished Boomer shot back 9 passes. That was all the deep balls that the top QB from that season had attempted, less than 1 deep ball attempted per game. I don't remember how many he actually completed but their really are not many deep passes attempted in a season. Deep balls are a product of good pass protection because if your QB can't make seven step drops those sort of routes aren't going to have time to develop. It would also help if you had the sort of vertical offensive philosophy and some WRs who had quicks and could get off the LOS and separate, not to mention a good play-action game with requisite running game to draw up the deep safety, etc. So its not merely a matter of having a QB with arm strength. Least that is the way I see it.

 

[ffchamp1]

I shot the guys a question on their top-ten prospects and this is what Cecil came up with:

top10 regardless of position:

Andrew Luck (Stanford QB), Matt Barkley (USC QB), Matt Kalil (USC LT), Justin Blackmon (OkSt WR), Trent Richardson (Alabama RB), Johnathan Martin (Stanford OT), David DeCastro (Stanford OG), Quinton Coples (N. Carolina DE), Dre Kirkpatrick (Alabama CB), Morris Claiborne (LSU CB)

To plug in top prospects with my projected top-ten I come up with the following:

1. Colts - QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (JR) 6' 4" 235

No one can pay the rumored price of three number ones and two second round draft selections to move up. If Peyton Manning comes back and is good to go his contract and age would make it tough to move him for fair market value so the question the Colts need to ask themselves is. If Peyton comes back and they are sure he is good for a few years would it be wise to consider taking less for Luck but gaining more value for the overall team?

No arguement here, Luck is going to go #1.

2. Rams - OT Matt Kalil, USC (JR) 7' 6" 295

Rams got a bargain in WR Bradon ‘Money’ Lloyd so that takes the onus off of drafting a wide receiver with the top pick. The Rams drafted OT Jason Smith but they were playing him on the strong side but had to move back to OLT when Rodger Saffold struggled on the blind side. They have to do a better job of Sam Bradford.

Again, best player available and fills a need.

3. Vikings - WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (JR) (6' 1" 211 lbs).

QB Christian Ponder is a keeper. WR Percy Harvin is dynamic but is undersized and has migraine issues. Harvin is also fast and explosive, a perfect slot receiver. Blackmon is a legit number one wideout. Ponder needs to have a consistent go-to weapon to grow with to have any chance try to keep pace with the Packers.

A need but not a pressing one. CB and DE will be much more important and my pick here is Dre Kirkpatrick as Winfield, Griffin and Allen are just not good enough or healthy enough anymore.

4. Panthers - Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama 6' 3" 190

The Panthers would prefer a blue-chip wideout but they need impact players so they go with a tall corner.

DE Quinton Coples stays home and is the pick here

5. Browns - QB Matt Barkley, USC (JR) 6' 2" 230

Mike Holmgren will chime in on any franchise QB selection so this could be any of the top signal callers, the Big-Show will find the best available franchise quarterback to ensure his legacy in NFL history. Barkley has outplayed the field and there are whispers that Griffin may not come out and will stay in school so we will slot Barkley in as the pick for now.

I could see Jonathan Martin here or possibly Trent Richardson but Barkley is not a large enough of an upgrade over McCoy to take him in this spot.

The rest of the first will be to difficult to predict at this point because we don't know yet who is coming out. Barkley will be the #2 QB, Blackmon #1 WR and I expect both to go in the top 10 of the draft.

I am not quite convinced yet that Barkley comes out. SC needs him one more year as I have not heard enough reports on the next great QB from Mater Dei to SC (Max Vitek). SC will be a threat next year if Barkley returns as we saw last night in Eugene.

 

[Fensalk]

If you wanted to sum up the Browns problems since 1999, they took Tim Couch and Brady Quinn in round 1, neither of which had a strong arm. Should we make it three and take Barkley too?

I love QBs with big strong arms but I don't think that is the most important quality of a franchise QB. I won't disparage the arms of any top flight NFL QBs but I don't see big strong armstrength with Brees or Manning. I don't see special arm strength in Tom Brady or Aarron Rodgers.A few years back, I believe Boomer Easiason was asked about the arm strength argument. He had broken down film of the top QBs from the previous season so when asked about the importance of arm strength he had the stats so he asked the interviewer how many deep passes (over 40 yards in the air) that (I don't recall who it was the top QB from that season I think Farve or Manning) had attempted that season?The interviewer assumed it was a large amount but he guessed conservatively and said around fifty attempts, almost before he finished Boomer shot back 9 passes. That was all the deep balls that the top QB from that season had attempted, less than 1 deep ball attempted per game. I don't remember how many he actually completed but their really are not many deep passes attempted in a season. Deep balls are a product of good pass protection because if your QB can't make seven step drops those sort of routes aren't going to have time to develop. It would also help if you had the sort of vertical offensive philosophy and some WRs who had quicks and could get off the LOS and separate, not to mention a good play-action game with requisite running game to draw up the deep safety, etc. So its not merely a matter of having a QB with arm strength. Least that is the way I see it.

Its not just 9 passes, its the amount of respect a defense has to give the deep ball. Its also muscling in those out patterns. Brady Quinn would attempt an out pattern and it would sail pathetically out of bounds. He couldn't rifle it in there. He had to get a huge arc on the pass.

 

[Fensalk]

If arm strength isn't important to you, you can find QBs with all the intangibles, smarts, and leadership skills in rounds 2-3. If you feel that way, you don't draft Barkley, you just stick with Colt McCoy and draft other positions. McCoy has a ton of intangibles - he just lacks the arm. The only reason you are looking for another QB instead of McCoy is because you're worried about his arm strength.

There is no scenario that makes sense for the Browns to draft Barkley. If arm strength matters to you, you don't draft Barkley you pick Landry Jones. If it doesn't, you stick with McCoy.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

If you wanted to sum up the Browns problems since 1999, they took Tim Couch and Brady Quinn in round 1, neither of which had a strong arm. Should we make it three and take Barkley too?

I love QBs with big strong arms but I don't think that is the most important quality of a franchise QB. I won't disparage the arms of any top flight NFL QBs but I don't see big strong armstrength with Brees or Manning. I don't see special arm strength in Tom Brady or Aarron Rodgers.A few years back, I believe Boomer Easiason was asked about the arm strength argument. He had broken down film of the top QBs from the previous season so when asked about the importance of arm strength he had the stats so he asked the interviewer how many deep passes (over 40 yards in the air) that (I don't recall who it was the top QB from that season I think Farve or Manning) had attempted that season?

The interviewer assumed it was a large amount but he guessed conservatively and said around fifty attempts, almost before he finished Boomer shot back 9 passes.

That was all the deep balls that the top QB from that season had attempted, less than 1 deep ball attempted per game. I don't remember how many he actually completed but their really are not many deep passes attempted in a season.

Deep balls are a product of good pass protection because if your QB can't make seven step drops those sort of routes aren't going to have time to develop. It would also help if you had the sort of vertical offensive philosophy and some WRs who had quicks and could get off the LOS and separate, not to mention a good play-action game with requisite running game to draw up the deep safety, etc. So its not merely a matter of having a QB with arm strength. Least that is the way I see it.

Its not just 9 passes, its the amount of respect a defense has to give the deep ball. Its also muscling in those out patterns. Brady Quinn would attempt an out pattern and it would sail pathetically out of bounds. He couldn't rifle it in there. He had to get a huge arc on the pass.

The actual number of passes attempted is that number.The argument of arm strength is one thing, your point and that is the 'effect' of the-deep-ball-threat not the actual arm strength of the QB, its the effeect of the threat of the deep ball not the actual arm strength of the QB.

Arm strength is a narrow a focus that can lead to false assumptions. For instance, if a team has a QB who does not have a big arm but he might look good with offensive pieces that may be lacking such as a rushing attack or wideouts who could bust the jam off the line of scrimmage or who are not speedy the QB may not have the best pass protection, etc. The argument of desiring a QB with a big arm like a Colt McCoy would lead those fans to seek a QB prospect with big arms. Instead of taking such a narrow focus if those fans could step back and ask what is missing on their offense other than a QB without a big arm their may be other glaring issues that are more pressing.

A big arm is great but it isn't used as much as people assume. The threat of the deep pass is connected to other issues. If those peripheral issues were cleared up on teams, like the Browns, then the arm strength issue with their QBprobably would fall into the background.

Good point on the threat of the deep ball rather than the actual number of deep passes but the number of actual deep passes are not as high as people assume and the number of deep pass attempts is connected to other factors outside of arm strength. My point is that the arm strength issue probably wouldn't come up if other offensive issues were cleared up.

 

[Fensalk]

For comparison's sake, Matt Hasselbeck had adequate arm strength and Mike Holmgren only swapped first rounders with Green Bay to get him (Seattle got the 1.17 plus Hasselbeck in exchange for the 1.10 plus a third round pick in 2001.) The other offer on the table for Hasselbeck was from Miami who offered the 1.26 straight up. Hasselbeck was originally drafted in the sixth round in 1998.

No-one was going to break the bank for Hasselbeck, and that was a guy people thought would do well as a starter. He just doesn't have a cannon arm.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

For comparison's sake, Matt Hasselbeck had adequate arm strength and Mike Holmgren only swapped first rounders with Green Bay to get him (Seattle got the 1.17 plus Hasselbeck in exchange for the 1.10 plus a third round pick in 2001.) The other offer on the table for Hasselbeck was from Miami who offered the 1.26 straight up. Hasselbeck was originally drafted in the sixth round in 1998.

No-one was going to break the bank for Hasselbeck, and that was a guy people thought would do well as a starter. He just doesn't have a cannon arm.

Holmgren had an advantage with Hasselbeck. He drafted him, he coached him, he got to see him in practice. He already knew his offense. Holmgren doesn't have that sort of an advantage with the upcoming class but he has seen Colt McCoy. Colt isn't the same QB I saw last year or even from the preseason this year. He is feeling heat, he lacks a running game, we don't know about the wideouts. It would be unacceptable to assume Colt plays no role in the offensive woes of the team and that the Browns should not think about checking out QB prospects who project better than McCoy.

If the Browns have a shot to trade up for Luck or flat out take Barkley then I believe Holmgren/Heckertt would pull the trigger and they would not wait to see who could fall to them later in the draft. I think one of the reasons they traded down last year was to cover their bases just in case Colt McCoy struggled this year and so far Colt has struggled. They have two first round picks. I'm sure they will check out the top QB prospect throroughly and their is a given that they will try to make a big play for Luck but that is unlikely to fall into place. If Barkley is on board for their first pick I can see them taking him.

I'm not sure he will be there when they select because the order will more than likely wind up being vastly different from this early projection. The Browns may very likely win today and drop out of the top-ten picks entirely so this is more of a snapshot to start to assemble how things might happen.

 

[Fensalk]

For comparison's sake, Matt Hasselbeck had adequate arm strength and Mike Holmgren only swapped first rounders with Green Bay to get him (Seattle got the 1.17 plus Hasselbeck in exchange for the 1.10 plus a third round pick in 2001.) The other offer on the table for Hasselbeck was from Miami who offered the 1.26 straight up. Hasselbeck was originally drafted in the sixth round in 1998.

No-one was going to break the bank for Hasselbeck, and that was a guy people thought would do well as a starter. He just doesn't have a cannon arm.

Holmgren had an advantage with Hasselbeck. He drafted him, he coached him, he got to see him in practice. He already knew his offense. Holmgren doesn't have that sort of an advantage with the upcoming class but he has seen Colt McCoy. Colt isn't the same QB I saw last year or even from the preseason this year. He is feeling heat, he lacks a running game, we don't know about the wideouts. It would be unacceptable to assume Colt plays no role in the offensive woes of the team and that the Browns should not think about checking out QB prospects who project better than McCoy.

If the Browns have a shot to trade up for Luck or flat out take Barkley then I believe Holmgren/Heckertt would pull the trigger and they would not wait to see who could fall to them later in the draft. I think one of the reasons they traded down last year was to cover their bases just in case Colt McCoy struggled this year and so far Colt has struggled. They have two first round picks. I'm sure they will check out the top QB prospect throroughly and their is a given that they will try to make a big play for Luck but that is unlikely to fall into place. If Barkley is on board for their first pick I can see them taking him.

I'm not sure he will be there when they select because the order will more than likely wind up being vastly different from this early projection. The Browns may very likely win today and drop out of the top-ten picks entirely so this is more of a snapshot to start to assemble how things might happen.

The rest of the Browns schedule is brutual. They will likely end up with 3 or 4 wins.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I'd be really surprised if Indy traded the 1st pick. If Polian isn't fired, I think leaving the team with a franchise QB and set for the long term is even bigger for his legacy than going all in and trying to win short term with Manning. Plus, its unlikely they'll have any 100% guaranteed answers on Peyton's injury situation in the next 5 months.

Peter King provides the details of the Manning decision. Peter King MMQB blurb on Indy/Luck problem

... *** Can Manning and Luck live happily ever after, together?

The cogent points you need to know about Peyton Manning's contract, and how it impacts the 2012 draft plans of the Indianapolis Colts:

1. Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck, together, would count $21.2 million against the 2012 salary cap, which is not prohibitive. The 2012 cap number for each team will be approximately $121 million.

You can substitute any player for Luck if you choose, because since the new CBA came out, the first-round picks are paid sanely. Manning's number will be $17 million if the Colts exercise his contract option after the season. The first pick in the draft will have a cap number of about $4.2 million (Cam Newton's in 2011 was $4 million) in a total deal of four years and about $23 million.

This means the Colts, who have to make hard decisions on veteran producers who will be unrestricted free agents next March -- like Reggie Wayne, Robert Mathis and Jeff Saturday (combined 2011 cap number: $17.94 million) -- will certainly be able to clear the money to keep Manning and draft his heir. In case you doubt the Colts' willingness to clear the decks, keep this in mind: In 2006, then-GM Bill Polian ignored the fan howlings and let Edgerrin James walk in free agency; he drafted Joseph Addai in the first round the next year, and the Colts won their only Super Bowl of the Manning Era that season.

Maybe the Colts try to get Saturday back for a year to smooth the transition, but they won't blink about losing very good veterans, such as the 33-year-old Wayne, if history is a judge.

2. The Colts can't trade Manning before his huge $28 million option bonus is due. The bonus is payable several days before the start of the 2012 league year, traditionally around March 1. Trades can't be made until the league year begins. So if Manning and his agent, Tom Condon, don't agree to extend the deadline for payment of the option, the Colts will have to let him go for nothing or exercise the option and pay him huge money ... and perhaps not know for sure if he's going to be whole with his neck injury for 2012.

3. There is some logical financial pressure on the Colts to make the Manning decision before the option is due. In terms of cash paid to Manning in 2012, if the Colts hold onto him for the 2012 season, the number is $35.4 million (the $28 million bonus and $7.4 million salary). For a franchise like Indianapolis, which is not among the leaders in revenue production, a $35.4 million cash outlay for a guy who may not last a full season is a pretty big risk.

4. It's complicated, and I won't bore you, but the Colts would save $6.6 million on the cap next year by jettisoning Manning before the option bonus is due. Cap number in 2012 if they keep Manning is $17 million. Cap number if they sever ties before the league year begins: $10.4 million.

5. Luck's a ridiculous bargain, whoever gets him. Just think: Manning will make $28 million in late February if the Colts exercise his option, with no guarantee that he'll play one play for them. Luck will make $23 million for the next four years, max. And Manning, if kept and active in 2012, will make $12 million more in 2012 than Luck makes in four years.

6. If the Colts draft Luck and cut Manning, it would be cheaper on the cap than if they keep Manning. Combined cap hit for cutting Manning and first-year cap number for Luck: $14.6 million, some $2.4 million less than keeping Manning and trading the first overall pick. Of course, that depends how far down in the draft Indianapolis goes -- and what the cap hits are of the picks they get if they make a deal.

Bottom line: The cap hit for keeping Manning and drafting Luck would be quite tolerable, but there's significant motivation for the Colts to have hard proof that Manning can play by February. It's almost inconceivable to think if he were still struggling physically come early February that the Colts would shell out $35 million to keep a 36-year-old player whose health they aren't sure about.

It boils down to this decision tree:If Manning shows signs he can play or if Manning shows signs he cannot play or would be impacted by his injury the decision is whether or not to cut him.

If they cut him they have the same team they have today with Luck. A horrible team with a rookie QB and not much else to build around. That leads to a series of questions related to that sort of scenario that is for others to speculate on.

If they keep Manning and Luck they would have to jettison veterans to afford both salaries which destroys the incentive to bring Manning back in the first place.

If they keep Manning and trade the rights to Luck for at least three first round draft picks and a young QB who would at least provide a bridge to a long-term replacement from this draft or a future draft. In this scenario they are not forced to jettison veterans, they get Manning back and we've seen how much he is missed on both that offense and defense. They know they have huge holes that Manning was hiding on both sides of the ball so those extra picks would help fill those holes and keep their window open.

They have the inside information on Peyton's injury and they have months more to evaluate his progress. They are calculating everything, the cap, the opportunity cost, and their revenue stream which is another factor that King didn't mention.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Fiver regular NFL games left before the top of the draft is set in place.

This is how it looks today:

1. 0-11: Indianapolis Colts

Projected selection = QB Andrew Luck, Stanford (JR) 6' 4" 235

If Peyton is able to come back I do not think the Colts would or could trade Manning nor do I think they could afford to pass up the opportunity to trade the rights of Luck for one last run at another Super Bowl championship.

2. 2-9: St. Louis Rams

OT Matt Kalil, USC (JR) 7' 6" 295

Kalil looks like a sure thing offensive left tackle. The rookie WRs haven't yet panned out but that trade for Brandon Lloyd took pressure off of taking Blackmon.

3. 2-9: Minnesota Vikings

CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama 6' 3" 190

The Browns have probably the best up-and-coming young CB in Joe Haden. Haden is a stud, he's fantastic, and he just got eaten up by AJ Green. Haden is 5'11, Green is 6'4. Megatron is 6'5. A 6'0 corner is considered tall in the NFL but no 6'0 or under CB is ever going to stand a chance against Calvin Johnson. Dre Kirkpatrick could be the only guy who could cover Megatron. Add the Vikes need help in their defensive backfield.

4. 3-8: Carolina Panthers

WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State (JR) 6' 1" 211 lbs

Steve Smith is a stud but they need an heir and they've been seeking someone to take the heat off of Smith for years.

5. 3-8: Jacksonville(?) Jaguars

DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina 6' 6" 272

They need more heat off the edges. Roth is ok but need to upgrade Mincey if they want a pass rush. Coples would compliment Roth.

6. 3-8: Miami Dolphins

QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor (JR) 6' 3" 210

Sparono has the Phins playing very tough down the stretch. He may keep his job. He likes big, strong armed QBs. RB III is a huge upgrade over Henne and Moore but he might need time. Barkley isn't big, doesn't have the strong arm, and is suited for a West Coast offense.

7. 4-7: Cleveland Browns

QB Matt Barkley USC, (JR) 6' 2" 230

Colt McCoy has a leaky offensive line, his WRs are not that great, he hasn't had an effective running game that he could rely on all year but he also has struggled in many areas and his accuracy has lead to some of the drops. I like Colt but the Browns need an upgrade at the trigger position and Matt Barkley is a perfect fit for the West Coast and Pat Shurmur/Mike Holmgren/Tom Heckertt. The Browns can address the O-Line with their other first round pick.

8. 4-7: Arizona Cardinals

QB Landry 'Lance' Jones, Oklahoma (6' 4" 229 lbs)

The Cards have to upgrade from Kolb and Skelton so they reach a bit for Jones.

9. 4-7: Washington Redskins

RB Trent Richardson, Alabama 5' 11" 220

Shannaham will try to move up for a QB but if he can't pull of a deal then he goes with a sure thing and possibly the best RB he has coached since Terrell Davis.

10. 4-7: Kansas City Chiefs

CB Morris Claiborne, LSU (JR) 6' 0" 177

KC has to upgrade their QB position and may make a free agent move or possibly for a backup, Matt Flynn(?) Ryan Mallet(?) or even stick with Orton and build a dominate defense/rushing attack around him. Claiborne would be an upgrade over Flowers (their best CB) and with Eric Berry coming back they would have one of the best defensive backfields in the league to go with an already stout front seven.

Eagles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Buccaneers,

 

[r0llin_game]

2. 2-9: St. Louis Rams

OT Matt Kalil, USC (JR) 7' 6" 295

Kalil looks like a sure thing offensive left tackle. The rookie WRs haven't yet panned out but that trade for Brandon Lloyd took pressure off of taking Blackmon.

Hope he has Yao as his QB!

 

[sbonomo]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

I can't imagine what the trade would have to be to get the first overall pick next year....at least two first rounders, a player and some future pics...don't see this happening.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

I can't imagine what the trade would have to be to get the first overall pick next year....at least two first rounders, a player and some future pics...don't see this happening.

This could become a big story if Peyton Manning makes enough progress where he would come back. The Colts can't trade Manning. If Manning is able to play he is better than any rookie QB and probably most QBs in the history of the NFL so Luck would sit. They would have to cut veteran players to fit that much cap space at the QB position so if the Colts could get three first round picks and a young QB with starting experience I think they would seriously consider that sort of deal.If Cleveland winds up with a top-ten pick this year, very likely then the table is set.Oliver Luck (Andrew's dad) went to school in Cleveland, Andrew grew up there. The Browns hold two-first round picks this year and one may very well be a top-ten selection wich is worth twice as much as late first round pick. The Browns have Colt McCoy and Senenaca Wallace, both have starting experience and either would be an upgrade over Painter and company in Indy. Either would be better insurance for Peyton and would be a bridge to a young QB down the line.If Peyton makes strides and is healthy enough for a comeback I think that the Colts HAVE to consider making a trade that could pave the way for another Super Bowl run.

 

[Wyld Stallyns]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

I can't imagine what the trade would have to be to get the first overall pick next year....at least two first rounders, a player and some future pics...don't see this happening.

This could become a big story if Peyton Manning makes enough progress where he would come back. The Colts can't trade Manning. If Manning is able to play he is better than any rookie QB and probably most QBs in the history of the NFL so Luck would sit. They would have to cut veteran players to fit that much cap space at the QB position so if the Colts could get three first round picks and a young QB with starting experience I think they would seriously consider that sort of deal.If Cleveland winds up with a top-ten pick this year, very likely then the table is set.

Oliver Luck (Andrew's dad) went to school in Cleveland, Andrew grew up there. The Browns hold two-first round picks this year and one may very well be a top-ten selection wich is worth twice as much as late first round pick. The Browns have Colt McCoy and Senenaca Wallace, both have starting experience and either would be an upgrade over Painter and company in Indy. Either would be better insurance for Peyton and would be a bridge to a young QB down the line.

If Peyton makes strides and is healthy enough for a comeback I think that the Colts HAVE to consider making a trade that could pave the way for another Super Bowl run.

So you're suggesting Cleveland gives both 2012 1sts, their 2013 1st & Colt McCoy (or Seneca)? ...Interesting. I could see Indy having to consider it for sure, not positive they'd pull the trigger, but it's interesting.

 

[RUSF18]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

I can't imagine what the trade would have to be to get the first overall pick next year....at least two first rounders, a player and some future pics...don't see this happening.

This could become a big story if Peyton Manning makes enough progress where he would come back. The Colts can't trade Manning. If Manning is able to play he is better than any rookie QB and probably most QBs in the history of the NFL so Luck would sit. They would have to cut veteran players to fit that much cap space at the QB position so if the Colts could get three first round picks and a young QB with starting experience I think they would seriously consider that sort of deal.If Cleveland winds up with a top-ten pick this year, very likely then the table is set.

Oliver Luck (Andrew's dad) went to school in Cleveland, Andrew grew up there. The Browns hold two-first round picks this year and one may very well be a top-ten selection wich is worth twice as much as late first round pick. The Browns have Colt McCoy and Senenaca Wallace, both have starting experience and either would be an upgrade over Painter and company in Indy. Either would be better insurance for Peyton and would be a bridge to a young QB down the line.

If Peyton makes strides and is healthy enough for a comeback I think that the Colts HAVE to consider making a trade that could pave the way for another Super Bowl run.

So you're suggesting Cleveland gives both 2012 1sts, their 2013 1st & Colt McCoy (or Seneca)? ...Interesting. I could see Indy having to consider it for sure, not positive they'd pull the trigger, but it's interesting.

If I'm Indy, I want a young impact defensive player or offensive lineman from the trading partner as well. Getting all those 1sts is great of course, but nothing is guaranteed, and they haven't exactly been on fire with selecting the right guys recently. Imagine trading the pick for a haul and three years later, you're left with Colt McCoy, a couple replacement level starters, and a guy stuck to your bench while Luck is beginning his assault on the league.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Indy trades down and loads up for one more run with Peyton. At least that's what I think. On the other hand, they have a lot of holes even with him, so is it even worth it? Can't imagine Manning not on the Colts though.

I can't imagine what the trade would have to be to get the first overall pick next year....at least two first rounders, a player and some future pics...don't see this happening.

This could become a big story if Peyton Manning makes enough progress where he would come back. The Colts can't trade Manning. If Manning is able to play he is better than any rookie QB and probably most QBs in the history of the NFL so Luck would sit. They would have to cut veteran players to fit that much cap space at the QB position so if the Colts could get three first round picks and a young QB with starting experience I think they would seriously consider that sort of deal.If Cleveland winds up with a top-ten pick this year, very likely then the table is set.

Oliver Luck (Andrew's dad) went to school in Cleveland, Andrew grew up there. The Browns hold two-first round picks this year and one may very well be a top-ten selection wich is worth twice as much as late first round pick. The Browns have Colt McCoy and Senenaca Wallace, both have starting experience and either would be an upgrade over Painter and company in Indy. Either would be better insurance for Peyton and would be a bridge to a young QB down the line.

If Peyton makes strides and is healthy enough for a comeback I think that the Colts HAVE to consider making a trade that could pave the way for another Super Bowl run.

So you're suggesting Cleveland gives both 2012 1sts, their 2013 1st & Colt McCoy (or Seneca)? ...Interesting. I could see Indy having to consider it for sure, not positive they'd pull the trigger, but it's interesting.

If I'm Indy, I want a young impact defensive player or offensive lineman from the trading partner as well. Getting all those 1sts is great of course, but nothing is guaranteed, and they haven't exactly been on fire with selecting the right guys recently. Imagine trading the pick for a haul and three years later, you're left with Colt McCoy, a couple replacement level starters, and a guy stuck to your bench while Luck is beginning his assault on the league.

Ofcourse the Colts would want and ask for more but getting a top ten pick plus two other first round selections plus a young QB with starting experience sets the foundation of the deal. Anything else would be of lessor value. The Colts do need interior offensive line help and the Browns have drafted two OGs in the last two years. With the Cleveland WRs not getting separation Colt has had to hang onto the ball longer which places more pressure on them so both could improve pass protection yet if a Peyton Manning were their QB he would make quicker reads than Colt McCoy and the Indy WRs would get separation quicker so the ball would be out of the QBs hand much quicker so both would look better in pass protection in that situation.

The Browns running game hss gone down due to injuries. One look at the health of Peyton Hillis equates to the Browns having a solid rushing attack so both of the Browns young OGs are solid run blockers.

To sweeten the deal the Browns could afford to include one of their young up-and-coming young OGs in the deal.

Defensively the Browns have good starters but no depth so it would be tougher to pry any starter from Cleveland. One player who might be a perfect fit in Indianapolis and whom the Browns might consider in any such deal is SS TJ Ward. Why would the Browns consider trading such a good young defender? Last year TJ put up HUGE tackle numbers but this year the Browns switched defensive schemes from a 3-4 to a 4-3 and they drafted DT Phil Taylor to pair with DT Ahytaba Rubin. Those two DTs freed up MLB D'Qwell Jackson so D'Qwell is making all of those tackles that went to TJ last year.

TJ Ward is a perfect fit for an Indianapolis defense where he would be a better SS than Bob Sanders who they used up-in-the-box which is how TJ Ward should be used. Right now TJ is injured and the Browns have found Osama Young and he looks good but he's older.

A final package that the Browns could offer would be:

- 2012 top-ten 1st round pick

- 2012 1st round pick from Atlanta

- 2013 1st round pick

- young starting OG either Shawn Lauvao (*selected* 3rd round 2010) or Jason Pinkston (3rd round 2011)

- young strong safety TJ Ward (2nd round 2010)

I don't know if Luck is worth that much to tell the truth and I'm sure any package would be different from the one propsed but if Peyton Manning comes back and looks healthy enough to play for a few years then the Colts would have to seriously listen to offers for the rights to Luck and Cleveland appears to be the best potential trading partner especially if they wind up with a top-ten pick to go with the extra first round pick from Atlanta this year.

Having a young QB with starting experience like McCoy and two first round picks this year is an enormous leg-up on any other team especially if Cleveland's top pick is in the top-ten and that is very likely.

If Peyton Manning comes back then I think the Colts would have to seriously consider trading the rights to Luck and Cleveland looks to be the most logical trading partner.

 

[Chris Yandek]

Can we get a new projected order?

 

[footballfever]

Indy should trade manning to the Vikings (Vikings could win it now with the right QB and Adrian Peterson- look at what Favre almost did) and Indy will get the #2 or #3 pick in addition to having the first, with the Vikings 2nd and 3rd rounders as well. Does that seem realistic?

 

[biggamer3]

If I was a Redskins fan, i would be hoping they lose out to end year with 4 wins with a possible top 6 pick so they can get one of the big 3 QB's in draft.