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2013 Dynasty Start-up Drafts (1 Viewer)

Yeah, he's likely screwed himself considering you have to start 10 but he made up his mind he had to have those 4 guys I guess.

 
ConnSKINS26 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
And that guy doesn't pick again until the 9th, and then the 12th. What the hell, I've never seen that before.
Click to expand...
Well, if he can manage to get Green, Julio, Dez, and Graham..........................fill in the blanks with waivers and draft picks the next year or two............

One bust and he is toast probably though.

 
ghostguy123 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
And that guy doesn't pick again until the 9th, and then the 12th. What the hell, I've never seen that before.
Click to expand...
Well, if he can manage to get Green, Julio, Dez, and Graham..........................fill in the blanks with waivers and draft picks the next year or two............

One bust and he is toast probably though.
Click to expand...
That's a fantastic strategy if you're only starting ~6 RB/WR/TE ... but that draft has 8(!). I think he is going to be hurting for depth... he'll probably lose a few games then trade one of those studs for less than he would have if he kept the picks and did BPA.

 
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
Lamar Miller in the 2nd round is complete lunacy. The hype on him is getting to astronomical levels. This is a guy that couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas on the depth chart last year, despite the facts that A) RB has the lowest learning curve of any position from college to NFL and B) Daniel Thomas is utter and complete garbage (one of lowest rated RBs in league according to PFF).

 
Last edited by a moderator:
meyerj31 said:
ghostguy123 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
And that guy doesn't pick again until the 9th, and then the 12th. What the hell, I've never seen that before.
Click to expand...
Well, if he can manage to get Green, Julio, Dez, and Graham..........................fill in the blanks with waivers and draft picks the next year or two............

One bust and he is toast probably though.
Click to expand...
That's a fantastic strategy if you're only starting ~6 RB/WR/TE ... but that draft has 8(!). I think he is going to be hurting for depth... he'll probably lose a few games then trade one of those studs for less than he would have if he kept the picks and did BPA.
Click to expand...
I do NOT like the strategy, just to clarify.

When you do that, you have to be PERFECT on your picks if you want to be successful. I couldn't do a strategy with such a small margin for error.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
meyerj31 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
Lamar Miller in the 2nd round is complete lunacy. The hype on him is getting to astronomical levels. This is a guy that couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas on the depth chart last year, despite the facts that A) RB has the lowest learning curve of any position from college to NFL and B) Daniel Thomas is utter and complete garbage (one of lowest rated RBs in league according to PFF).
Click to expand...
I agree it's lunacy, and I am even high on him.

However............to say he "couldn't" beat out Thomas on the depth chart isn't exactly accurate and in no way telling of his ability. He was a rookie, and had some things to learn outside of the basics of being a RB. He has a ton of talent and skill.

Now, 2nd round startup?? Yikes, he needs to live up to the hype to be worth that. And most never live up to the hype, at least not the max level of that hype

 
meyerj31 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE)

http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful.

1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
Lamar Miller in the 2nd round is complete lunacy. The hype on him is getting to astronomical levels. This is a guy that couldn't beat out Daniel Thomas on the depth chart last year, despite the facts that A) RB has the lowest learning curve of any position from college to NFL and B) Daniel Thomas is utter and complete garbage (one of lowest rated RBs in league according to PFF).
Click to expand...
Miami seems to have faith in him they let Reggie Bush walk. The guy in my league traded Miller for rookie pick 2.08 so I guess the joke's on him he way undervalued his worth.

 
The Miller pick is a reach, but then you look at the RBs taken behind him and there aren't a lot of great options.

That league is in love with the next big thing, as you look down the list and see untested players like Patterson, Hopkins, Austin, Wilson, and Miller flying off the board early. They all have the potential to justify their draft slots, but it's a dangerous game taking them that high. I'd only do it with total confidence.

Hunter in the 8th round is a much better value. Wouldn't surprise me to see him become the best WR from this class. I'd certainly rather pay an 8th for him than a 3rd for Hopkins. Sometimes if you're willing to drop down a marginal step in hype/pedigree you can get a comparable prospect for a fraction of the cost.

 
EBF said:
The Miller pick is a reach, but then you look at the RBs taken behind him and there aren't a lot of great options.

That league is in love with the next big thing, as you look down the list and see untested players like Patterson, Hopkins, Austin, Wilson, and Miller flying off the board early. They all have the potential to justify their draft slots, but it's a dangerous game taking them that high. I'd only do it with total confidence.

Hunter in the 8th round is a much better value. Wouldn't surprise me to see him become the best WR from this class. I'd certainly rather pay an 8th for him than a 3rd for Hopkins. Sometimes if you're willing to drop down a marginal step in hype/pedigree you can get a comparable prospect for a fraction of the cost.
Click to expand...
Shhhhhhh, we dont want people to know that.

 
Lavachebeadsman said:
14 team, PPR, 6 PT passing TD, start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 RB/WR, 1 WR/TE.

http://www.fleaflicker.com/nfl/team?leagueId=138428&teamId=978024
Click to expand...
This league would be a lot more interesting if you had to start 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE and 2 flex and gave TE 1.5

That would give QB big value (14 teams plus 6 TD), give RB big value (must start 2 can start up to 4), give WR big value (must start 3 and can start up to 5), and give TE big value (1.5 TE and can start up to 3)

 
bigmarc27 said:
aquablast said:
32 team with IDP's. 6 pts all TD's plus 1 point per 10 return yards. After round 40 is the rookie draft.

http://football22.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=45586&O=17
Click to expand...
How did Diabeetus get Cam Newton, Julio, Dez, and Percy in a start-up?
Click to expand...
That was me. I traded all of my rookie picks for this year and next, as well as all of my picks from rounds 3 - 10. This gave me 2 extra firsts and the 2.02. I then traded up to get 2 picks in the 9th using late round rookie picks packaged with picks from rounds 11-15. I also gave all of my waiver money for that 4th round pick which got me McFadden. It was a very aggressive strategy and I'm excited to see how it turns out long term. I will have a solid starting line up, but not much depth.

 
ghostguy123 said:
meyerj31 said:
ghostguy123 said:
ConnSKINS26 said:
Dez said:
Dragon1952 said:
started today - 16 team, 1 PPR, 4pt passing TD - 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE, 1DEF, 2 flex (RB, WR, TE) http://football5.myfantasyleague.com/2013/options?L=32092&O=17
Click to expand...
Some puzzling trades here who in the world trades a 3rd for a 9th and 11th ? That is awful. 1 guy has FOUR 1st round picks
Click to expand...
And that guy doesn't pick again until the 9th, and then the 12th. What the hell, I've never seen that before.
Click to expand...
Well, if he can manage to get Green, Julio, Dez, and Graham..........................fill in the blanks with waivers and draft picks the next year or two............ One bust and he is toast probably though.
Click to expand...
That's a fantastic strategy if you're only starting ~6 RB/WR/TE ... but that draft has 8(!). I think he is going to be hurting for depth... he'll probably lose a few games then trade one of those studs for less than he would have if he kept the picks and did BPA.
Click to expand...
I do NOT like the strategy, just to clarify. When you do that, you have to be PERFECT on your picks if you want to be successful. I couldn't do a strategy with such a small margin for error.
Click to expand...
Well, this startup is over with and that guy did about as poorly as any of us would have expected. If you look through his transactions (Mr. Miyagi) it's just one disaster after another.

 
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.

 
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.

 
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ILUVBEER99 said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I was pulling birthdays from PFR, but they have it wrong, too.

Dodds, Henry, Wood, and Tremblay have Martin projected for 33, 23, 48, and 20 more points than Richardson this year in non-PPR. Tremblay's projections have that gap shrinking to just 7 or 8 points in PPR, but all of the other guys have Martin only increasing his lead. In terms of rankings, just 10% of staffers (Parsons and Tefertiller) have Richardson over Martin in redraft, with Borbely joining them in PPR to bring it to 15%. In the Fantasy Pros expert consensus, a whopping 98% have Martin ranked over Richardson (89 for Martin, 2 for Richardson). In most of these rankings, the two are not particularly close.

If you believe it's a coin flip who has the better season this year, then I think it's totally reasonable to think that Richardson is the slam-dunk choice in dynasty; he's significantly younger, has substantially better pedigree, and equally productive. Just understand that the overwhelming, crushing consensus strongly disagrees on Richardson's immediate prospects. It's not that the people selecting Martin over Richardson are crazy, it's that they just fundamentally disagree with you on how long it will take for Richardson to become as productive as Martin. According to the consensus narrative, Richardson is younger and arguably more talented, but plays in a much worse situation and will take years to reach Martin's level of productivity, if he ever does (see: Jackson, Steven). And then it will take more years for Richardson to chip away at the early lead that Martin raced out to. I think that's a rational set of beliefs and assumptions- I don't share them, but I think they're reasonable conclusions based on the evidence at hand. Martin dramatically outperformed Richardson last year. Richardson has an injury history and is currently hurt. The Browns are an absolute mess, if their 30-year-old sophomore QB doesn't improve immediately they're going to have to go QB-hunting all over again, and who even knows what's going to happen with their ownership (which is an underrated issue- look at NBA franchises with uncertain ownership structures to see how difficult it is for them to improve). Martin is a much, much safer choice who should immediately pay noticeably higher dividends.

Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I tend to think injury risk is dramatically overblown. I think that Richardson's top-5 draft position is still very relevant. I tend to weigh current seasons less than most owners, so that extra 2 years at the back of their careers means more to me than most. I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.

 
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I was pulling birthdays from PFR, but they have it wrong, too.

Dodds, Henry, Wood, and Tremblay have Martin projected for 33, 23, 48, and 20 more points than Richardson this year in non-PPR. Tremblay's projections have that gap shrinking to just 7 or 8 points in PPR, but all of the other guys have Martin only increasing his lead. In terms of rankings, just 10% of staffers (Parsons and Tefertiller) have Richardson over Martin in redraft, with Borbely joining them in PPR to bring it to 15%. In the Fantasy Pros expert consensus, a whopping 98% have Martin ranked over Richardson (89 for Martin, 2 for Richardson). In most of these rankings, the two are not particularly close.

If you believe it's a coin flip who has the better season this year, then I think it's totally reasonable to think that Richardson is the slam-dunk choice in dynasty; he's significantly younger, has substantially better pedigree, and equally productive. Just understand that the overwhelming, crushing consensus strongly disagrees on Richardson's immediate prospects. It's not that the people selecting Martin over Richardson are crazy, it's that they just fundamentally disagree with you on how long it will take for Richardson to become as productive as Martin. According to the consensus narrative, Richardson is younger and arguably more talented, but plays in a much worse situation and will take years to reach Martin's level of productivity, if he ever does (see: Jackson, Steven). And then it will take more years for Richardson to chip away at the early lead that Martin raced out to. I think that's a rational set of beliefs and assumptions- I don't share them, but I think they're reasonable conclusions based on the evidence at hand. Martin dramatically outperformed Richardson last year. Richardson has an injury history and is currently hurt. The Browns are an absolute mess, if their 30-year-old sophomore QB doesn't improve immediately they're going to have to go QB-hunting all over again, and who even knows what's going to happen with their ownership (which is an underrated issue- look at NBA franchises with uncertain ownership structures to see how difficult it is for them to improve). Martin is a much, much safer choice who should immediately pay noticeably higher dividends.

Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I tend to think injury risk is dramatically overblown. I think that Richardson's top-5 draft position is still very relevant. I tend to weigh current seasons less than most owners, so that extra 2 years at the back of their careers means more to me than most. I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
Median PPR PPG of last 8 games played in 2012:

Martin 19.5

Richardson 19.05

Wait, that excludes Martin's 2 monster games! Let's look at the Median PPR PPG for all games played instead:

Martin 17.35

Richardson 18.5

And Richardson had broken ribs.

:shrug:

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.
Click to expand...
There seems to be some minor conflicting info such as voter registration putting birthdate as July 1990. But let's go with 1991 for a moment. Had his first kid when we was 15 years old, damn. http://www.al.com/sports/index.ssf/2010/10/trent_richardson_dedicates_per.html

ETA: This article put birth of first child at 16, but could be working off the incorrect birthdate: http://www.ohio.com/news/top-stories/browns-rookie-trent-richardson-believes-everything-he-has-overcome-will-help-him-succeed-in-the-nfl-1.321907

ETA2: This article puts both the birth of his child and his surgeries as a sophmore in HS at age 16, again could be working off of incorrect info - but haven't seen anywhere that indicates he had first child at 15. http://clevelandmagazine.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=E73ABD6180B44874871A91F6BA5C249C&nm=Article+Archives&type=Publishing&mod=Publications::Article&mid=1578600D80804596A222593669321019&tier=4&id=6CD2BAA37E394535A5504CF06D3CE4B3

I think this is a legit question as to Richardson's age. Would be interested if anyone had something definitive.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Adam Harstad said:
I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
My thoughts too. His injury history kind of offsets the appeal of his age.

He's still my dynasty #1, but that is due to a weak dynasty RB class. No problem with anyone taking Martin over him.

 
ZWK said:
Hard to get more definitive than Wikipedia, and they identify him as:

Trenton Jamond "Trent" Richardson (born July 10, 1990)
Click to expand...
Also, in the sidebar under "Personal Information" they list:

Date of birth: July 10, 1991 (age 22)
Click to expand...
Well, damn.
Click to expand...
Not sure why some places have his birthdate wrong.

Here is an article about his 21st birthday last year, he was born in 1991.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/07/11/trent-richardson-jamie-foxx-21st-birthday-dinner-hollywood/

 
Concept Coop said:
Adam Harstad said:
I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
My thoughts too. His injury history kind of offsets the appeal of his age.

He's still my dynasty #1, but that is due to a weak dynasty RB class. No problem with anyone taking Martin over him.
Click to expand...
Is his injury history really that concerning? It's pretty overblown, he's also fine for training camp.

minor knee scopes that didn't cause him to miss any games. Rib injury which he played through and won't cause any lingering issues.

He was healthy through college as well.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
ZWK said:
Hard to get more definitive than Wikipedia, and they identify him as:

Trenton Jamond "Trent" Richardson (born July 10, 1990)
Click to expand...
Also, in the sidebar under "Personal Information" they list:

Date of birth: July 10, 1991 (age 22)
Click to expand...
Well, damn.
Click to expand...
Not sure why some places have his birthdate wrong.

Here is an article about his 21st birthday last year, he was born in 1991.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/07/11/trent-richardson-jamie-foxx-21st-birthday-dinner-hollywood/
Click to expand...
Do we have anything more official than TMZ?

Here is yet another one for the other side: http://flvoters.com/ESC/16622352.html

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
Is his injury history really that concerning? It's pretty overblown, he's also fine for training camp.

minor knee scopes that didn't cause him to miss any games. Rib injury which he played through and won't cause any lingering issues.

He was healthy through college as well.
Click to expand...
The concerns could be overblown. The Browns investing so much in him after their research was a good sign. But I think there has to be some concern - multiple knee scopes, screws in his feet, shin injury this year. I am not calling him injury prone yet, but I think there is some risk there.

 
cdubz said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
ZWK said:
Hard to get more definitive than Wikipedia, and they identify him as:

Trenton Jamond "Trent" Richardson (born July 10, 1990)
Click to expand...
Also, in the sidebar under "Personal Information" they list:

Date of birth: July 10, 1991 (age 22)
Click to expand...
Well, damn.
Click to expand...
Not sure why some places have his birthdate wrong.

Here is an article about his 21st birthday last year, he was born in 1991.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/07/11/trent-richardson-jamie-foxx-21st-birthday-dinner-hollywood/
Click to expand...
Do we have anything more official than TMZ?

Here is yet another one for the other side: http://flvoters.com/ESC/16622352.html
Click to expand...
wikipedia shows both 1990 and 1991.

I think Trent needs to produce a birth certificate or something, his birthdate is a mess online.

 
Concept Coop said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Is his injury history really that concerning? It's pretty overblown, he's also fine for training camp.

minor knee scopes that didn't cause him to miss any games. Rib injury which he played through and won't cause any lingering issues.

He was healthy through college as well.
Click to expand...
The concerns could be overblown. The Browns investing so much in him after their research was a good sign. But I think there has to be some concern - multiple knee scopes, screws in his feet, shin injury this year. I am not calling him injury prone yet, but I think there is some risk there.
Click to expand...
Weren't the ankle's from when he was a junior in high school? As far as i know he hasn't had issues related to that since.

His knee scopes are really the only concerning injury issue, and they haven't been major surgeries. The shin thing was obviously a media thing they over blew as he's back in full already.

 
ILUVBEER99 said:
cdubz said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
ZWK said:
Hard to get more definitive than Wikipedia, and they identify him as:

Trenton Jamond "Trent" Richardson (born July 10, 1990)
Click to expand...
Also, in the sidebar under "Personal Information" they list:

Date of birth: July 10, 1991 (age 22)
Click to expand...
Well, damn.
Click to expand...
Not sure why some places have his birthdate wrong.

Here is an article about his 21st birthday last year, he was born in 1991.

http://www.tmz.com/2012/07/11/trent-richardson-jamie-foxx-21st-birthday-dinner-hollywood/
Click to expand...
Do we have anything more official than TMZ?

Here is yet another one for the other side: http://flvoters.com/ESC/16622352.html
Click to expand...
wikipedia shows both 1990 and 1991.

I think Trent needs to produce a birth certificate or something, his birthdate is a mess online.
Click to expand...
Here it shows in 2010 it was his 19th birthday, so that would mean he's 22 now, born in 1991.

http://www.yardbarker.com/college_football/articles/pix_bama_booster_at_t_richardson_birthday_party/6456616

the intellus people search site shows him as 23. I give up, he's an enigma.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
cdubz said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I was pulling birthdays from PFR, but they have it wrong, too.

Dodds, Henry, Wood, and Tremblay have Martin projected for 33, 23, 48, and 20 more points than Richardson this year in non-PPR. Tremblay's projections have that gap shrinking to just 7 or 8 points in PPR, but all of the other guys have Martin only increasing his lead. In terms of rankings, just 10% of staffers (Parsons and Tefertiller) have Richardson over Martin in redraft, with Borbely joining them in PPR to bring it to 15%. In the Fantasy Pros expert consensus, a whopping 98% have Martin ranked over Richardson (89 for Martin, 2 for Richardson). In most of these rankings, the two are not particularly close.

If you believe it's a coin flip who has the better season this year, then I think it's totally reasonable to think that Richardson is the slam-dunk choice in dynasty; he's significantly younger, has substantially better pedigree, and equally productive. Just understand that the overwhelming, crushing consensus strongly disagrees on Richardson's immediate prospects. It's not that the people selecting Martin over Richardson are crazy, it's that they just fundamentally disagree with you on how long it will take for Richardson to become as productive as Martin. According to the consensus narrative, Richardson is younger and arguably more talented, but plays in a much worse situation and will take years to reach Martin's level of productivity, if he ever does (see: Jackson, Steven). And then it will take more years for Richardson to chip away at the early lead that Martin raced out to. I think that's a rational set of beliefs and assumptions- I don't share them, but I think they're reasonable conclusions based on the evidence at hand. Martin dramatically outperformed Richardson last year. Richardson has an injury history and is currently hurt. The Browns are an absolute mess, if their 30-year-old sophomore QB doesn't improve immediately they're going to have to go QB-hunting all over again, and who even knows what's going to happen with their ownership (which is an underrated issue- look at NBA franchises with uncertain ownership structures to see how difficult it is for them to improve). Martin is a much, much safer choice who should immediately pay noticeably higher dividends.

Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I tend to think injury risk is dramatically overblown. I think that Richardson's top-5 draft position is still very relevant. I tend to weigh current seasons less than most owners, so that extra 2 years at the back of their careers means more to me than most. I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
Median PPR PPG of last 8 games played in 2012:

Martin 19.5

Richardson 19.05

Wait, that excludes Martin's 2 monster games! Let's look at the Median PPR PPG for all games played instead:

Martin 17.35

Richardson 18.5

And Richardson had broken ribs.

:shrug:
Click to expand...
Median points is a fairly odd metric that you don't see people using very often. What is it supposed to be measuring? If you want to be measuring consistency, median points is a bad way to do it. Even if median points was the best way to measure consistency, though, consistent is not at all the same thing as productive. And the PPR restricts the applicability of the comparison, because PPR leagues are the only context where receptions are inherently productive. If a back had 48 receptions for 160 yards, the only people on the planet who would consider that "productive" are PPR leaguers.

I don't think you'll find anyone who will honestly argue that Trent Richardson was as productive as Doug Martin last year. Martin averaged 2.5 more points per game, 1 more yard per carry, and 2.5 more yards per reception. In PPR, Martin had fewer "bad games" (whether you define bad games as a game under 5 points, a game under 8 points, a game under 10 points, or a game under 12 points- Martin had fewer in each category). And few people expect Richardson to be in Martin's class this year in terms of production, too- I mentioned the Fantasy Pros expert consensus has 89 out of its 91 participants ranking Martin over Richardson in redraft. I don't think it's at all unfair to say that there has been a production gap between Martin and Richardson, or that the overwhelming consensus is that this gap is unlikely to close this year.

 
Concept Coop said:
Adam Harstad said:
I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
My thoughts too. His injury history kind of offsets the appeal of his age.

He's still my dynasty #1, but that is due to a weak dynasty RB class. No problem with anyone taking Martin over him.
Click to expand...
I don't trust Richardson because of that civil suit he had against him. If even part of it were true, it makes it sound like he has a huge ego. Martin just seems more grounded and less likely to run into trouble down the road.

 
Adam Harstad said:
cdubz said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Adam Harstad said:
ILUVBEER99 said:
Crazy people are picking Martin over Trent.

Trent is 2.5 yrs younger and a better talent. Only thing Martin has right now is situation and that changes quickly.

I like Martin, but he's not on the same planet as Trent dynasty wise.

2.5 years is a huge gap for a RB
Click to expand...
Not that crazy. I've got Richardson over Martin, but it's a pretty small gap. Richardson may be younger, but his injury history is... extensive. And situations may change, but if Martin builds up enough of a VBD lead in the next season or two while we're waiting for Richardson's situation to change, it could take Richardson a long time to finally get even again. And the age difference is only 1.5 years, not 2.5 (January 1989 for Martin, July 1990 for Richardson).

Again, I've got Richardson as my #1 overall player in dynasty, but I think the case for Martin is also pretty compelling, and I have him at #3.
Click to expand...
I think it's pretty much a coin flip on who has a bigger season this year, so don't expect Martin to get some huge VBD gain, if any.Also richardson is 2.5 years younger, he was born in July 1991. FBG's has his birthdate wrong.

His injury history is overblown. He doesn't miss games, he had minor knee scopes and broken ribs. If anything his ability to play with pain is a plus as many players would have sat out with broken ribs.
Click to expand...
Thanks. I was pulling birthdays from PFR, but they have it wrong, too.

Dodds, Henry, Wood, and Tremblay have Martin projected for 33, 23, 48, and 20 more points than Richardson this year in non-PPR. Tremblay's projections have that gap shrinking to just 7 or 8 points in PPR, but all of the other guys have Martin only increasing his lead. In terms of rankings, just 10% of staffers (Parsons and Tefertiller) have Richardson over Martin in redraft, with Borbely joining them in PPR to bring it to 15%. In the Fantasy Pros expert consensus, a whopping 98% have Martin ranked over Richardson (89 for Martin, 2 for Richardson). In most of these rankings, the two are not particularly close.

If you believe it's a coin flip who has the better season this year, then I think it's totally reasonable to think that Richardson is the slam-dunk choice in dynasty; he's significantly younger, has substantially better pedigree, and equally productive. Just understand that the overwhelming, crushing consensus strongly disagrees on Richardson's immediate prospects. It's not that the people selecting Martin over Richardson are crazy, it's that they just fundamentally disagree with you on how long it will take for Richardson to become as productive as Martin. According to the consensus narrative, Richardson is younger and arguably more talented, but plays in a much worse situation and will take years to reach Martin's level of productivity, if he ever does (see: Jackson, Steven). And then it will take more years for Richardson to chip away at the early lead that Martin raced out to. I think that's a rational set of beliefs and assumptions- I don't share them, but I think they're reasonable conclusions based on the evidence at hand. Martin dramatically outperformed Richardson last year. Richardson has an injury history and is currently hurt. The Browns are an absolute mess, if their 30-year-old sophomore QB doesn't improve immediately they're going to have to go QB-hunting all over again, and who even knows what's going to happen with their ownership (which is an underrated issue- look at NBA franchises with uncertain ownership structures to see how difficult it is for them to improve). Martin is a much, much safer choice who should immediately pay noticeably higher dividends.

Again, I'm just playing devil's advocate here. I tend to think injury risk is dramatically overblown. I think that Richardson's top-5 draft position is still very relevant. I tend to weigh current seasons less than most owners, so that extra 2 years at the back of their careers means more to me than most. I'd take Richardson over Martin and feel pretty comfortable about it. Still, Martin is my second ranked RB, and I can very easily see how non-crazy people who just have different risk tolerances and projection windows would feel differently.
Click to expand...
Median PPR PPG of last 8 games played in 2012:

Martin 19.5

Richardson 19.05

Wait, that excludes Martin's 2 monster games! Let's look at the Median PPR PPG for all games played instead:

Martin 17.35

Richardson 18.5

And Richardson had broken ribs.

:shrug:
Click to expand...
Median points is a fairly odd metric that you don't see people using very often. What is it supposed to be measuring? If you want to be measuring consistency, median points is a bad way to do it. Even if median points was the best way to measure consistency, though, consistent is not at all the same thing as productive. And the PPR restricts the applicability of the comparison, because PPR leagues are the only context where receptions are inherently productive. If a back had 48 receptions for 160 yards, the only people on the planet who would consider that "productive" are PPR leaguers.

I don't think you'll find anyone who will honestly argue that Trent Richardson was as productive as Doug Martin last year. Martin averaged 2.5 more points per game, 1 more yard per carry, and 2.5 more yards per reception. In PPR, Martin had fewer "bad games" (whether you define bad games as a game under 5 points, a game under 8 points, a game under 10 points, or a game under 12 points- Martin had fewer in each category). And few people expect Richardson to be in Martin's class this year in terms of production, too- I mentioned the Fantasy Pros expert consensus has 89 out of its 91 participants ranking Martin over Richardson in redraft. I don't think it's at all unfair to say that there has been a production gap between Martin and Richardson, or that the overwhelming consensus is that this gap is unlikely to close this year.
Click to expand...
So if I understand correctly, the response has 2 planks:

1) Median points is an "odd" metric

2) PPR points are not a good measure of productivity

On 1) you can ignore median points if you would like, but I think it is more useful than average points in describing impact on win/loss records. If you play in a total points league, then boom bust is great. But I would rather have 2 25 point games than 1 50 point game and 1 0 point game if I am playing in a league where records matter. I am pretty sure head-to-head is still used in most leagues. You seem to equate median with consistency - but you can average zero points a game and be consistent. In order to score well on a median metric you both need to be consistent and productive.

On 2) you are describing theoretical "real-world" performance to be a better measure than fantasy points. I understand where you are coming from, but if we are ultimately trying to predict PPR production, why shouldn't we look at PPR production? Put another way, if you have an issue with PPR leagues not being "real-world" then don't play them, but since most high-stakes leagues are PPR it is relevant. But let's examine the idea he is less productive in "real-world" situations. Chase Stuart had a nice article on Richardson's YPC and the relevance for future production on his blog http://www.footballperspective.com/why-trent-richardsons-3-6-ypc-average-does-not-matter/.

One of the things he looked at was success rate on 1st and 10 runs, success in this situation being gaining 4 or more yards.

Martin had a success rate of 46.7% on such runs

Richardson has a success rate of 47.3% on such runs

I don't have an issue with people putting Martin over Richardson, but to think there is some massive gap in current per-game production is a little silly IMHO.

 
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