2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (2 Viewers)

[Bamac]

Spare parts??Since when is Robert Griffin a spare part?? PLus three 1sts (not great 1sts, but 3 1sts). Plus Reggie Bush who can easily get another 1st.So let's say the deal is Griffin and four 1sts. I do think he could have got more from that specific owner though, since the guy was desperate for a top RB. But I can't call that a "spare parts" for a Stud deal. It's more like a lesser stud and four 1sts for a top stud deal.

+1.

 

[Danish Bengal]

Team A (rebuilding) gaveP. ManningP. GarconA. HernandezTeam B (contender) gaveA. RodgersAJ JenkinsB Scott2013 1.07

 

[ghostguy123]

Team A (rebuilding) gaveP. ManningP. GarconA. HernandezTeam B (contender) gaveA. RodgersAJ JenkinsB Scott2013 1.07

I like the side getting Hernandez. Manning and Rodgers will probably score pretty close for the next 2-3 years (total scoring balanced out by the addition of Hernandez), and in a couple years, I think Hernandez wil,l be worth more than Rodgers

 

[cstu]

Yes, the above trade with Cruz is REAL bad, wow. Blockbuster went down tonight in the FFPC dynasty world.TEAM A gives:RG3Reggie Bushpick 6pick 8a projected late 2014 1stTEAM B givesoug MartinThe team that traded away Martin just took over the team, and the team was VERY thin all over the place. I do think overall team B got more value. However, team A didn't trade a starter in the deal (unless you count Bush maybe). If team B can do well with those draft picks, and maybe flip Reggie Bush for something of younger significance, this deal could really help. Sucks that team A also has picks 1,2,3. Seems crazy team B couldn't get at least one of those picks.

I refuse to believe that trading a way at least in the conversation for #1 dynasty RB for spare parts is the correct way to rebuild.ETA: There should be a lockout period for new owners. How many of these lopsided deals have been made by guys who just came into a league?

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

 

[Gawain]

Yes, the above trade with Cruz is REAL bad, wow. Blockbuster went down tonight in the FFPC dynasty world.TEAM A gives:RG3Reggie Bushpick 6pick 8a projected late 2014 1stTEAM B givesoug MartinThe team that traded away Martin just took over the team, and the team was VERY thin all over the place. I do think overall team B got more value. However, team A didn't trade a starter in the deal (unless you count Bush maybe). If team B can do well with those draft picks, and maybe flip Reggie Bush for something of younger significance, this deal could really help. Sucks that team A also has picks 1,2,3. Seems crazy team B couldn't get at least one of those picks.

I refuse to believe that trading a way at least in the conversation for #1 dynasty RB for spare parts is the correct way to rebuild.ETA: There should be a lockout period for new owners. How many of these lopsided deals have been made by guys who just came into a league?

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

In my defense, i totally didn't see RG3. That makes me think it was pretty even.

 

[One More Rep]

Team A (rebuilding) gaveP. ManningP. GarconA. HernandezTeam B (contender) gaveA. RodgersAJ JenkinsB Scott2013 1.07

I will take the Rodgers side

 

[Tibereas]

•Rolling Prairie Dogs gave up Williams, Mike TBB WR;Pitta, Dennis BAL TE•Joe C's Midget Killers gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR;Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08

 

[cusefan115]

•Rolling Prairie Dogs gave up Williams, Mike TBB WR;Pitta, Dennis BAL TE•Joe C's Midget Killers gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR;Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08

Awesome deal for prairie dogs.

 

[One More Rep]

•Rolling Prairie Dogs gave up Williams, Mike TBB WR;Pitta, Dennis BAL TE•Joe C's Midget Killers gave up Floyd, Michael ARI WR;Gonzalez, Tony ATL TE; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08

I like Floyd and the pick

 

[Concept Coop]

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

It looks like it, but in startup value, it's actually pretty fair. Martin is a top 5 pick. RG3 is going in the 3rd, Bush in the 6th, the picks later than that. Most of us would reject the following offer in a startup:Give:1.05Get3.056.058.0510.05Not saying startup value is accurate here, just providing some context.

 

[The Comedian]

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

It looks like it, but in startup value, it's actually pretty fair. Martin is a top 5 pick. RG3 is going in the 3rd, Bush in the 6th, the picks later than that. Most of us would reject the following offer in a startup:Give:1.05Get3.056.058.0510.05Not saying startup value is accurate here, just providing some context.

Just curious - what is your primary source for ADP data?

 

[jonboltz]

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

It looks like it, but in startup value, it's actually pretty fair. Martin is a top 5 pick. RG3 is going in the 3rd, Bush in the 6th, the picks later than that. Most of us would reject the following offer in a startup:Give:1.05Get3.056.058.0510.05Not saying startup value is accurate here, just providing some context.

The 2014 1st is also likely add some value. Regardless, the deal basically hinges on how much value one places on RG3, post-injury. Prior to his injury, he was mostly viewed as the QB2 (sometimes even QB1) and drafted often in the top 15 overall. Post-injury, he has fallen to almost pick #50 at times.I find that the 'hit' that RG3 has taken to his start-up value is quite significant, but I doubt that those that have him on their teams view him this low.

 

[One More Rep]

Side a gets Matt Forte/ 2013 rookie pick 3.10Side b gets Randall Cobb/ 2013 rookie pick 1.10

 

[floods]

Team A gives:Ingram (3 yrs)1.10Team B gives:Harvin (4 yrs)Pead (taxi)One note: in this league you must have a first to bid on franchised RFAs, therefore a late 1st has a little better value than in a traditional dynasty. Team has the option to match RFAs or concede, winning team must give up RFA$ (disappear) and 1st round pick (to conceding team).

 

[coolnerd]

Team A (rebuilding) gaveP. ManningP. GarconA. HernandezTeam B (contender) gaveA. RodgersAJ JenkinsB Scott2013 1.07

Not sure whay the team "rebuilding" would essentially get rid of a young TE and young enough clear NFL WR1 just to get younger at QB.

 

[One More Rep]

Team A gives:Ingram (3 yrs)1.10Team B gives:Harvin (4 yrs)Pead (taxi)One note: in this league you must have a first to bid on franchised RFAs, therefore a late 1st has a little better value than in a traditional dynasty. Team has the option to match RFAs or concede, winning team must give up RFA$ (disappear) and 1st round pick (to conceding team).

I like the Harvin side

 

[ghostguy123]

That's a ridiculous amount of value for Martin.

It looks like it, but in startup value, it's actually pretty fair. Martin is a top 5 pick. RG3 is going in the 3rd, Bush in the 6th, the picks later than that. Most of us would reject the following offer in a startup:Give:1.05Get3.056.058.0510.05Not saying startup value is accurate here, just providing some context.

Let's say the future 1st is also in that 10th round range (though I think the 6th and 8th rookies will go before the 8th and 10th rounds).I am gonna say in startup it more like this:Martin (say pick 5)for3rd (RG3 strong possibility to gain value, and the guy getting him isn't winning this year anyway even with Martin)6th8th9th10thAlso, what startup pick (or player) could a 6th, 8th, 9th, and 10th get you if you traded up? In this case it would be Bush, pick 6, pick 8, and a future 1st. I would imagine that could get you a stud-ish player/So that "stud-ish player" plus RG3 for Martin.I think for a team rebuilding that needs a ton, the quantity over quality will work as long as that quantity has a lot of quality in it (if that makes sense, lol)Plus, 4 of the 5 thing he got in the trade have quite a significant chance of INCREASING in value. Not Reggie Bush, he he can be traded for something that will.

 

[SSOG]

This went down in one of my 12 team PPR's today. I was not involved.Team A gives: 1.02 and 1.03Team B gives: Ray RiceSeems like selling very low on Rice to me.

That's horrible value for Team B even if he is rebuilding and Rice is the only stud he has. Could have at least traded him for a handful of established studs going in rounds 2-4 of startups + picks.. not just two picks.Overreaction & rookie fever at its finest.

I have 1, 2, 4, and 5 and wouldn't even get a sniff from Rice owner in that league for all 4

I'd wait to see where everyone landed first, but there's a decent possibility I'd trade Rice for four top5 picks, even in a weak draft like this one.

 

[Kevrunner]

This trade just went down in a 10 Team Dynasty - Non-PPR

Team A Gave - Greg Jennings

Team B Gave - Kenny Britt

 

[flc735]

this was a "need" trade, but i was wondering what you guys thought about the general value of this dealwin win? or did one team bea the other here?16 team ppr full dynostart 1 qb, 3 WRs. no flexTeam A gave garcon, antonio bryantTeam B gave brees, shorts, fred davis, 2015 2ndBefore trade...team A rosterpalmer, foles, flynncruz, garcon, antonio, austin, f moore, dhbTeam B rosterbrees, wilson, kolblloyd, sidney, shorts, mclusters

 

[xtreme11]

Team A Gets: Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Vic BallardTeam B Gets: Calvin Johnson, Shane Vereen (Ridley owner), Beanie Wells

 

[Donsmith753]

this was a "need" trade, but i was wondering what you guys thought about the general value of this dealwin win? or did one team bea the other here?16 team ppr full dynostart 1 qb, 3 WRs. no flexTeam A gave garcon, antonio bryantTeam B gave brees, shorts, fred davis, 2015 2ndBefore trade...team A rosterpalmer, foles, flynncruz, garcon, antonio, austin, f moore, dhbTeam B rosterbrees, wilson, kolblloyd, sidney, shorts, mclusters

Antonio Bryant? Really

 

[jonboltz]

this was a "need" trade, but i was wondering what you guys thought about the general value of this dealwin win? or did one team bea the other here?16 team ppr full dynostart 1 qb, 3 WRs. no flexTeam A gave garcon, antonio bryantTeam B gave brees, shorts, fred davis, 2015 2ndBefore trade...team A rosterpalmer, foles, flynncruz, garcon, antonio, austin, f moore, dhbTeam B rosterbrees, wilson, kolblloyd, sidney, shorts, mclusters

Antonio Bryant? Really

Probably Brown.

 

[Concept Coop]

Just curious - what is your primary source for ADP data?

The startup thread/mocks.

 

[Concept Coop]

So that "stud-ish player" plus RG3 for Martin.

I think that's fair. The stud RB is very rare and the stud QB simply isn't. 2x RG3's is likely fair value for Martin. In a 12 team league, only 2 guys, on average, won't have one of these starting at QB:RodgersNewtonLuckRG3KaepWilsonBreesRyanStaffordBradyAnd they'll have Romo, Eli, Peyton, Ben to pick from, as well as a lot of potential, like Locker, Dalton, Geno, etc. I'm not even a huge Martin fan, outside of his situation, but I would consider sending that package for him.

 

[ghostguy123]

So that "stud-ish player" plus RG3 for Martin.

I think that's fair. The stud RB is very rare and the stud QB simply isn't. 2x RG3's is likely fair value for Martin. In a 12 team league, only 2 guys, on average, won't have one of these starting at QB:RodgersNewtonLuckRG3KaepWilsonBreesRyanStaffordBradyAnd they'll have Romo, Eli, Peyton, Ben to pick from, as well as a lot of potential, like Locker, Dalton, Geno, etc. I'm not even a huge Martin fan, outside of his situation, but I would consider sending that package for him.

I think they guy that traded FOR Martin made a nice trade also. It's one of those rare trades that I think has a great chance to be good for both teams.The guy getting Martin traded RG3, but he has Newton. He also traded picks 6 and 8 that likely wouldnt start for him. Bush was probably a flex, but not now with Martin there instead. And the 2014 1st will PROBABLY be later 1st. So he got a top dynasty RB without giving up a starter. Can't argue with that even if the sum total of the value he gave is more than Martin.For the other guy, the team is VERY shallow all over the place. Martin could score 500 a year and that team wouldn't win anything. He also did NOT have any of the top 15 QBs, so RG3 is a giant QB upgrade. If I was him I would trade Bush, since he isn't going to win anything this year. And the three 1st rounders (4 if he trades Bush for one) have a fairly significant chance of landing him a couple nice players by drafting, or one of two nice players by trade. Also in a rebuild, I can't argue with trading a top stud RB because RB value fluctuates like crazy. It only took one year for Mathews to go from top 10 to about 50. Meanwhile Kenny Britt was going around pick 50 has 2 nice games then tears his ACL, and goes even HIGHER in drafts the following year. Not that I want to start any player-specific debates on that, just saying, a RB can fall of the map much easier than any other position. So if I am rebuilding I will target the Wilsons (before his perceived value exploded to abnormal levels), Lamar Millers, Kendal Hunters, and Ben tates of the world and try to stock up on the younger ones with potential. Just gotta make sure if you DO trade one of those guys you get a lot. I think he got enough. Coulda PROBABLY got more, but he did get enough.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think they guy that traded FOR Martin made a nice trade also. It's one of those rare trades that I think has a great chance to be good for both teams.

I agree. If I have Newton already, I make this trade every day of the week. If I am rebuilding, same thing, I'd give Martin for this package. Of course, assuming I did my homework and this was my league's market value for said players.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think they guy that traded FOR Martin made a nice trade also. It's one of those rare trades that I think has a great chance to be good for both teams.

I agree. If I have Newton already, I make this trade every day of the week. If I am rebuilding, same thing, I'd give Martin for this package. Of course, assuming I did my homework and this was my league's market value for said players.

Well, I made some offers for Martin, and pretty sure other people did also. He is also new to the league, but he definitely entertained offers. One of my offers was three 2014 1sts (ALL (at minimum 2)of which I think will be top 6 picks, and in the FFPC the losers bracket they could go anywhere 1-6), plus one or two guys out of Maclin, Shorts, and Stevie Johnson. I also offered five 2014 1sts (two of which I woulda have gotten with another deal to be able to make that deal).

 

[One More Rep]

Team A Gets: Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Vic BallardTeam B Gets: Calvin Johnson, Shane Vereen (Ridley owner), Beanie Wells

I have to go Calvin side

 

[Concept Coop]

Team A Gets: Michael Crabtree, Mike Wallace, Vic BallardTeam B Gets: Calvin Johnson, Shane Vereen (Ridley owner), Beanie Wells

I have to go Calvin side

Yes. Calvin > Crabtree + Wallace, and I'll gladly turn Ballard into Vereen and Wells.

 

[flc735]

this was a "need" trade, but i was wondering what you guys thought about the general value of this dealwin win? or did one team bea the other here?16 team ppr full dynostart 1 qb, 3 WRs. no flexTeam A gave garcon, antonio bryantTeam B gave brees, shorts, fred davis, 2015 2ndBefore trade...team A rosterpalmer, foles, flynncruz, garcon, antonio, austin, f moore, dhbTeam B rosterbrees, wilson, kolblloyd, sidney, shorts, mclusters

Antonio Bryant? Really

lol, im sorry. antonio brown

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Yes. Calvin > Crabtree + Wallace, and I'll gladly turn Ballard into Vereen and Wells.

That's WR1, RB43 and RB44 for WR12, WR18 and RB24Still like the Calvin side (best player wins), but it's not as crazy in terms of market value as some of them.

 

[jonboltz]

Yes. Calvin > Crabtree + Wallace, and I'll gladly turn Ballard into Vereen and Wells.

That's WR1, RB43 and RB44 for WR12, WR18 and RB24Still like the Calvin side (best player wins), but it's not as crazy in terms of market value as some of them.

Well, those are last years stats and not indicative of future results. I'd imagine most people that view this as a slam dunk also don't put a lot of faith/trust in Ballard.If I had to rate them based purely on who I'd have on my team (i.e. if I wasn't allowed to trade/flip them) I'd have Ballard last in that group of 3 RBs.

 

[Concept Coop]

Yes. Calvin > Crabtree + Wallace, and I'll gladly turn Ballard into Vereen and Wells.

That's WR1, RB43 and RB44 for WR12, WR18 and RB24Still like the Calvin side (best player wins), but it's not as crazy in terms of market value as some of them.

The RBs are a wash; Ballard might be RB24 in terms of ADP, but the gap bewteen he and Vereen is nothing, in my mind. Vereen is more talented but in a lesser situation. I don't expect Ballard to have this value going into the season; he won't be the clear cut starter as he is today.So its WR1 (#1 player overall) for WR12+WR18. I think that is pretty clear. In startup value it is the 1.01 for 3.05 + 5.05 or so.

 

[cstu]

This trade just went down in a 10 Team Dynasty - Non-PPR

Team A Gave - Greg Jennings

Team B Gave - Kenny Britt

I have these guys very close but I took Britt over him in a startup.

 

[SSOG]

this was a "need" trade, but i was wondering what you guys thought about the general value of this dealwin win? or did one team bea the other here?16 team ppr full dynostart 1 qb, 3 WRs. no flexTeam A gave garcon, antonio bryantTeam B gave brees, shorts, fred davis, 2015 2ndBefore trade...team A rosterpalmer, foles, flynncruz, garcon, antonio, austin, f moore, dhbTeam B rosterbrees, wilson, kolblloyd, sidney, shorts, mclusters

Strongly prefer the Brees/Shorts side. I actually prefer Shorts to Brown straight up, so then you're looking at Brees and change for Garçon. I like Garçon, but not anywhere near that much.

I think they guy that traded FOR Martin made a nice trade also. It's one of those rare trades that I think has a great chance to be good for both teams.

I agree. If I have Newton already, I make this trade every day of the week. If I am rebuilding, same thing, I'd give Martin for this package. Of course, assuming I did my homework and this was my league's market value for said players.

Well, I made some offers for Martin, and pretty sure other people did also. He is also new to the league, but he definitely entertained offers. One of my offers was three 2014 1sts (ALL (at minimum 2)of which I think will be top 6 picks, and in the FFPC the losers bracket they could go anywhere 1-6), plus one or two guys out of Maclin, Shorts, and Stevie Johnson. I also offered five 2014 1sts (two of which I woulda have gotten with another deal to be able to make that deal).

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

 

[gianmarco]

1 ppr league:Team A receives: Bowe/2014 2ndTeam B receives: Gordon

 

[Concept Coop]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this. A startup I am in just had two owners trade future first rounders to move up from the 9th, to the 7th.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

12 team ppr - start 3 WRs•Team N gave up Wayne, Reggie IND WR•Team SF gave up Avery, Donnie IND WR;Broyles, Ryan DET WR

 

[Steed]

1 ppr league:Team A receives: Bowe/2014 2ndTeam B receives: Gordon

Someone is a big believer in Gordon.

 

[ghostguy123]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this. A startup I am in just had two owners trade future first rounders to move up from the 9th, to the 7th.

There are quite a few players that I WOULD trade four 1sts for.For example, the three future 1sts I have SHOULD all be high picks (at least two for certain), and I was willing to give all three plus a guy like Maclin, Shorts, or Stevie Johnson (all of which at MINIMUM would get a future 1st in trade). There have to be like a dozen players or so I would do this for.If I thought a couple of those future 1sts would be playoff picks, I would probably up that number to 20-25 players.

 

[One More Rep]

1 ppr league:Team A receives: Bowe/2014 2ndTeam B receives: Gordon

I would trade Gordon straight up for Bowe so the 2nd is gravy for me

 

[SSOG]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this.

Wait, what? Since when is the typical 1.01 worth pick 4.10 in a startup? I understand that this year's is, but this year's is not a typical #1 overall, now is it? I didn't say I'd trade him for 2013 picks, now did I? You're jousting with a straw man, now aren't you ? Typically, the top rookie is a late 2nd or early 3rd pick. Some go in the first round of startups (Richardson, I'm looking at you).Just for fun, I went to an online dice roller and rolled until I got 4 unique numbers. I wound up with 2, 7, 8, and 11. Here are what those picks would have gotten you in my last 6 rookie drafts:Martin, David Wilson, Pead, Russell WilsonIngram, Little, Hankerson, Cam NewtonSpiller, McCluster, Demaryius, HernandezWells, Nicks, Crabtree, StaffordForte, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Desean JacksonCalvin, Jacoby Jones, Bowe, Brady QuinnKeep in mind, this exercise was completely random. I did not preselect any of those numbers. On the one hand, the 11 wound up being an insane money pick in my league, which was lucky... but on the other hand, I only rolled one pick in the top half of the first round, which was unlucky. That's not the point, though- the point is I trusted to complete, blind, total luck, and those were the 6 packages I wound up with them. Four of the 6 blow the 27 year old Calvin Johnson out of the freaking water. Even the two packages that wound up worse than Calvin (Ingram/Little/Hank/Newton and Wells/Nicks/Crabtree/Stafford) are not major value losses.If you think I just got lucky, or that these results are somehow not representative, you can feel free to repeat this exercise for yourself. Here's an online dice roller for you to play with. I've done this exercise a lot, though, and so I can tell you that these results were not at all an aberration. I found myself in my main dynasty league this year holding 5 future firsts. I was approached by the Calvin/Green owner looking to acquire them. I spent a lot of time crunching the numbers, running scenarios, and simulating outcomes. When I say that there's no player I'd take over 4 firsts in a startup, that is not an idle claim. Sure, if I wound up with four of the last 6 picks, I could wind up losing big (although those picks produce a lot of studs, especially at QB and WR). On the other hand, if I wound up with four top 6 picks, I'd double my value. Looking at best case or worst case scenarios aren't the best way to go, though- look at typical scenarios, and calculate the EV of the picks. If you do that, you'll quickly see it's extremely high. And besides, getting 4 rookie picks isn't risky, it's diversifying. It's possible to roll snake eyes, for sure, but it's also possible that you take Calvin and he gets Daunte Culpepper'd, Johnny Knox'd, Austin Collie'd, or Jahvid Best'd.Edit: ZWK crunched the numbers and found that the average top-3 pick has an EV of about 275 career VBD, while picks 4-12 have an EV of about 110 career VBD. Assuming you land one top3 pick and three later picks, you're looking at an EV of about 605 VBD. Now, obviously VBD is more valuable when concentrated in a single player than when spread out over four (although this wouldn't be spread out over four- just because all four have positive EV doesn't mean we'd expect all four to be positive value players- we'd expect 1-3 to substantially out produce their EV, and 1-3 to be essentially without value). Still, 605 VBD is a TON. It's more than Holt produced over his entire career. Randy Moss only produced 344 VBD from age 28 onwards. Calvin is hardly a lock to put up 600 more VBD over the rest of his career.

 

[cstu]

1 ppr league:Team A receives: Bowe/2014 2ndTeam B receives: Gordon

I would trade Gordon straight up for Bowe so the 2nd is gravy for me

I'm the one who traded Gordon and it wasn't easy. I'm higher than most on him and have him ranked in the mid-20's right now.

 

[Concept Coop]

Just for fun, I went to an online dice roller and rolled until I got 4 unique numbers. I wound up with 2, 7, 8, and 11. Here are what those picks would have gotten you in my last 6 rookie drafts:Martin, David Wilson, Pead, Russell WilsonIngram, Little, Hankerson, Cam NewtonSpiller, McCluster, Demaryius, HernandezWells, Nicks, Crabtree, StaffordForte, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Desean JacksonCalvin, Jacoby Jones, Bowe, Brady Quinn

These results are surprising. But I have to question the sample size, too, however. This suggests the 1.11 hits nearly as often as the 1.02. It also doesn't measure the value of 3 extra roster spots, or the 300 VBD you are likely to lose out on over the first year+. Or the potential that you sell guys like Crabtree, Ryan, Bowe, Stafford, etc, before they hit peak value. I have to ask you, however - if you stand by these results and the claim that 4 1st > Calvin - where do you draw the line? Would you trade Nicks for 2 random 1sts? Cruz? Crabtree? How many future firsts is Drew Brees worth? Calvin is worth more than 2 Brees, based on ADP and in my opinion. Is Brees only worth 2 random firts?

 

[Concept Coop]

Edit: ZWK crunched the numbers and found that the average top-3 pick has an EV of about 275 career VBD, while picks 4-12 have an EV of about 110 career VBD. Assuming you land one top3 pick and three later picks, you're looking at an EV of about 605 VBD. Now, obviously VBD is more valuable when concentrated in a single player than when spread out over four (although this wouldn't be spread out over four- just because all four have positive EV doesn't mean we'd expect all four to be positive value players- we'd expect 1-3 to substantially out produce their EV, and 1-3 to be essentially without value). Still, 605 VBD is a TON. It's more than Holt produced over his entire career. Randy Moss only produced 344 VBD from age 28 onwards. Calvin is hardly a lock to put up 600 more VBD over the rest of his career.

ZWK's numbers look more in line with what I would have expected, assuming he is using standard scoring/baselines. 110 career VBD is 22/year over 5 years. You certainly can't sum the VBD of 3 guys over 5 years and use it as you seem to, unless I am misunderstanding you. Big picture, we're talking about WR20 value for 5 years. How many of those equal Calvin?

 

[jwb]

1 ppr league:Team A receives: Bowe/2014 2ndTeam B receives: Gordon

Someone is a big believer in Gordon.

Yea, but this is about what it would take to get Gordon from me.

 

[Donsmith753]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this.

Wait, what? Since when is the typical 1.01 worth pick 4.10 in a startup? I understand that this year's is, but this year's is not a typical #1 overall, now is it? I didn't say I'd trade him for 2013 picks, now did I? You're jousting with a straw man, now aren't you ? Typically, the top rookie is a late 2nd or early 3rd pick. Some go in the first round of startups (Richardson, I'm looking at you).Just for fun, I went to an online dice roller and rolled until I got 4 unique numbers. I wound up with 2, 7, 8, and 11. Here are what those picks would have gotten you in my last 6 rookie drafts:Martin, David Wilson, Pead, Russell WilsonIngram, Little, Hankerson, Cam NewtonSpiller, McCluster, Demaryius, HernandezWells, Nicks, Crabtree, StaffordForte, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Desean JacksonCalvin, Jacoby Jones, Bowe, Brady QuinnKeep in mind, this exercise was completely random. I did not preselect any of those numbers. On the one hand, the 11 wound up being an insane money pick in my league, which was lucky... but on the other hand, I only rolled one pick in the top half of the first round, which was unlucky. That's not the point, though- the point is I trusted to complete, blind, total luck, and those were the 6 packages I wound up with them. Four of the 6 blow the 27 year old Calvin Johnson out of the freaking water. Even the two packages that wound up worse than Calvin (Ingram/Little/Hank/Newton and Wells/Nicks/Crabtree/Stafford) are not major value losses.If you think I just got lucky, or that these results are somehow not representative, you can feel free to repeat this exercise for yourself. Here's an online dice roller for you to play with. I've done this exercise a lot, though, and so I can tell you that these results were not at all an aberration. I found myself in my main dynasty league this year holding 5 future firsts. I was approached by the Calvin/Green owner looking to acquire them. I spent a lot of time crunching the numbers, running scenarios, and simulating outcomes. When I say that there's no player I'd take over 4 firsts in a startup, that is not an idle claim. Sure, if I wound up with four of the last 6 picks, I could wind up losing big (although those picks produce a lot of studs, especially at QB and WR). On the other hand, if I wound up with four top 6 picks, I'd double my value. Looking at best case or worst case scenarios aren't the best way to go, though- look at typical scenarios, and calculate the EV of the picks. If you do that, you'll quickly see it's extremely high. And besides, getting 4 rookie picks isn't risky, it's diversifying. It's possible to roll snake eyes, for sure, but it's also possible that you take Calvin and he gets Daunte Culpepper'd, Johnny Knox'd, Austin Collie'd, or Jahvid Best'd.Edit: ZWK crunched the numbers and found that the average top-3 pick has an EV of about 275 career VBD, while picks 4-12 have an EV of about 110 career VBD. Assuming you land one top3 pick and three later picks, you're looking at an EV of about 605 VBD. Now, obviously VBD is more valuable when concentrated in a single player than when spread out over four (although this wouldn't be spread out over four- just because all four have positive EV doesn't mean we'd expect all four to be positive value players- we'd expect 1-3 to substantially out produce their EV, and 1-3 to be essentially without value). Still, 605 VBD is a TON. It's more than Holt produced over his entire career. Randy Moss only produced 344 VBD from age 28 onwards. Calvin is hardly a lock to put up 600 more VBD over the rest of his career.

Decided to do this out of interest. Wound up with 1,4,9 and 12 here's the results (QB Heavy):Richardson RG3 Miller HillmanGreen Williams Little Torrey SmithBryant Bradford DThomas ClausenMoreno Donald brown Greene DHBMcfadden Felix Rice Limas SweedADP Jamarcus Quinn OlsenDoesn't look as favourable with those results...

 

[Ernol]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this.

Wait, what? Since when is the typical 1.01 worth pick 4.10 in a startup? I understand that this year's is, but this year's is not a typical #1 overall, now is it? I didn't say I'd trade him for 2013 picks, now did I? You're jousting with a straw man, now aren't you ? Typically, the top rookie is a late 2nd or early 3rd pick. Some go in the first round of startups (Richardson, I'm looking at you).Just for fun, I went to an online dice roller and rolled until I got 4 unique numbers. I wound up with 2, 7, 8, and 11. Here are what those picks would have gotten you in my last 6 rookie drafts:Martin, David Wilson, Pead, Russell WilsonIngram, Little, Hankerson, Cam NewtonSpiller, McCluster, Demaryius, HernandezWells, Nicks, Crabtree, StaffordForte, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Desean JacksonCalvin, Jacoby Jones, Bowe, Brady QuinnKeep in mind, this exercise was completely random. I did not preselect any of those numbers. On the one hand, the 11 wound up being an insane money pick in my league, which was lucky... but on the other hand, I only rolled one pick in the top half of the first round, which was unlucky. That's not the point, though- the point is I trusted to complete, blind, total luck, and those were the 6 packages I wound up with them. Four of the 6 blow the 27 year old Calvin Johnson out of the freaking water. Even the two packages that wound up worse than Calvin (Ingram/Little/Hank/Newton and Wells/Nicks/Crabtree/Stafford) are not major value losses.If you think I just got lucky, or that these results are somehow not representative, you can feel free to repeat this exercise for yourself. Here's an online dice roller for you to play with. I've done this exercise a lot, though, and so I can tell you that these results were not at all an aberration. I found myself in my main dynasty league this year holding 5 future firsts. I was approached by the Calvin/Green owner looking to acquire them. I spent a lot of time crunching the numbers, running scenarios, and simulating outcomes. When I say that there's no player I'd take over 4 firsts in a startup, that is not an idle claim. Sure, if I wound up with four of the last 6 picks, I could wind up losing big (although those picks produce a lot of studs, especially at QB and WR). On the other hand, if I wound up with four top 6 picks, I'd double my value. Looking at best case or worst case scenarios aren't the best way to go, though- look at typical scenarios, and calculate the EV of the picks. If you do that, you'll quickly see it's extremely high. And besides, getting 4 rookie picks isn't risky, it's diversifying. It's possible to roll snake eyes, for sure, but it's also possible that you take Calvin and he gets Daunte Culpepper'd, Johnny Knox'd, Austin Collie'd, or Jahvid Best'd.Edit: ZWK crunched the numbers and found that the average top-3 pick has an EV of about 275 career VBD, while picks 4-12 have an EV of about 110 career VBD. Assuming you land one top3 pick and three later picks, you're looking at an EV of about 605 VBD. Now, obviously VBD is more valuable when concentrated in a single player than when spread out over four (although this wouldn't be spread out over four- just because all four have positive EV doesn't mean we'd expect all four to be positive value players- we'd expect 1-3 to substantially out produce their EV, and 1-3 to be essentially without value). Still, 605 VBD is a TON. It's more than Holt produced over his entire career. Randy Moss only produced 344 VBD from age 28 onwards. Calvin is hardly a lock to put up 600 more VBD over the rest of his career.

Decided to do this out of interest. Wound up with 1,4,9 and 12 here's the results (QB Heavy):Richardson RG3 Miller HillmanGreen Williams Little Torrey SmithBryant Bradford DThomas ClausenMoreno Donald brown Greene DHBMcfadden Felix Rice Limas SweedADP Jamarcus Quinn OlsenDoesn't look as favourable with those results...

It doesn't? Those results, except for the Moreno group, look great.

 

[gianmarco]

There is not a player in the league I wouldn't trade for 5 firsts. If we're talking 2014 firsts and there's a good mix (i.e. not all from the four strongest teams in the league), there isn't a player in the league that is worth 4 picks, IMO. Obviously there are situations where I might prefer a player to 4 2014 firsts (say I'm the prohibitive favorite, I'm not selling Calvin for future firsts, or if my roster is deep and I won't have room to carry the players for a while), but if we had a startup draft, and "four random 2014 firsts" was bundled together into a single player, I'd take it #1 overall.

I don't agree with this at all. What is the hit rate for rookies first rounders? 50%? I don'l like those odds. Give me Calvin over the below:1.02, 1.04, 1.08, 1.10In startup value, you're giving 1.01 for 4.10 (1.01) + 6.0 + 8.0 + 8.5. Awful value. Calvin is worth Cruz + Crabtree. Would you trade each of those 2 for 2 random 2014 1sts?ETA: In a startup that allows the trade of future picks, you should be able to turn the 1.01 into 5+ 1st rounders, or equal value.Trading from 1.01 to 1.07 - 1st rounder1.07 to 2.05 - 1st rounder2.05 to 3.05 - 1st rounder3.05 to 4.08 - 1st rounder4.08raft 1.01-1.03 (or keep trading down)A lot depends on your league, as far as specifics go, but value wise, I'd be shocked if you couldn't do this.

Wait, what? Since when is the typical 1.01 worth pick 4.10 in a startup? I understand that this year's is, but this year's is not a typical #1 overall, now is it? I didn't say I'd trade him for 2013 picks, now did I? You're jousting with a straw man, now aren't you ? Typically, the top rookie is a late 2nd or early 3rd pick. Some go in the first round of startups (Richardson, I'm looking at you).Just for fun, I went to an online dice roller and rolled until I got 4 unique numbers. I wound up with 2, 7, 8, and 11. Here are what those picks would have gotten you in my last 6 rookie drafts:Martin, David Wilson, Pead, Russell WilsonIngram, Little, Hankerson, Cam NewtonSpiller, McCluster, Demaryius, HernandezWells, Nicks, Crabtree, StaffordForte, Matt Ryan, Chris Johnson, Desean JacksonCalvin, Jacoby Jones, Bowe, Brady QuinnKeep in mind, this exercise was completely random. I did not preselect any of those numbers. On the one hand, the 11 wound up being an insane money pick in my league, which was lucky... but on the other hand, I only rolled one pick in the top half of the first round, which was unlucky. That's not the point, though- the point is I trusted to complete, blind, total luck, and those were the 6 packages I wound up with them. Four of the 6 blow the 27 year old Calvin Johnson out of the freaking water. Even the two packages that wound up worse than Calvin (Ingram/Little/Hank/Newton and Wells/Nicks/Crabtree/Stafford) are not major value losses.If you think I just got lucky, or that these results are somehow not representative, you can feel free to repeat this exercise for yourself. Here's an online dice roller for you to play with. I've done this exercise a lot, though, and so I can tell you that these results were not at all an aberration. I found myself in my main dynasty league this year holding 5 future firsts. I was approached by the Calvin/Green owner looking to acquire them. I spent a lot of time crunching the numbers, running scenarios, and simulating outcomes. When I say that there's no player I'd take over 4 firsts in a startup, that is not an idle claim. Sure, if I wound up with four of the last 6 picks, I could wind up losing big (although those picks produce a lot of studs, especially at QB and WR). On the other hand, if I wound up with four top 6 picks, I'd double my value. Looking at best case or worst case scenarios aren't the best way to go, though- look at typical scenarios, and calculate the EV of the picks. If you do that, you'll quickly see it's extremely high. And besides, getting 4 rookie picks isn't risky, it's diversifying. It's possible to roll snake eyes, for sure, but it's also possible that you take Calvin and he gets Daunte Culpepper'd, Johnny Knox'd, Austin Collie'd, or Jahvid Best'd.Edit: ZWK crunched the numbers and found that the average top-3 pick has an EV of about 275 career VBD, while picks 4-12 have an EV of about 110 career VBD. Assuming you land one top3 pick and three later picks, you're looking at an EV of about 605 VBD. Now, obviously VBD is more valuable when concentrated in a single player than when spread out over four (although this wouldn't be spread out over four- just because all four have positive EV doesn't mean we'd expect all four to be positive value players- we'd expect 1-3 to substantially out produce their EV, and 1-3 to be essentially without value). Still, 605 VBD is a TON. It's more than Holt produced over his entire career. Randy Moss only produced 344 VBD from age 28 onwards. Calvin is hardly a lock to put up 600 more VBD over the rest of his career.

Decided to do this out of interest. Wound up with 1,4,9 and 12 here's the results (QB Heavy):Richardson RG3 Miller HillmanGreen Williams Little Torrey SmithBryant Bradford DThomas ClausenMoreno Donald brown Greene DHBMcfadden Felix Rice Limas SweedADP Jamarcus Quinn OlsenDoesn't look as favourable with those results...

It doesn't? Those results, except for the Moreno group, look great.

Right. You can't look at current values from a draft class years ago and say it was a fail. The DMC/Felix/S. Rice group doesn't look great now, but 3 years ago was chock full of value. And 4 of those 6 groups netted a guy with elite value that has carried over (Richardson, Green, Bryant, ADP).