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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
Spin
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I guess that comes down to our own individual expectations of his rookie year. If we expected him to get a lion's share and/or be more productive his rookie season, and drafted him accordingly, then I guess we'd be right to lower his value some. But, as Meno said, suggesting Allen's production is a negative for Fleener reminds me of the Hernandez/Gronk talks over the last 3 years. I think the NFL is moving away from that, and I think the Colts want to, too, seeing as how they drafted both guys high in the same year, and even pointed to the Patriots as an example.
The good news, for both guys, is that Andrew Luck is legit and will throw a lot of TD passes. His young TEs are going to be more valuable than they are today or were on draft day. If we thought Fleener was worth a top 12 pick in an average draft last year, I personally don’t see reason to think otherwise today.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
"Both guys are in their plans" is a meaningless statement. Dreesen and Tamme are both in Denver's plans, I'm sure, but neither is going to be startable. They drafted Allen because he was the BPA and they didn't expect him to fall that far. If Allen plays so well that it makes Fleener's role less than what we thought it would be, then yes it affects Fleener's value.
Fleener vs. Allen is definitely interesting. I think Allen is a better TE. But the offense will change this year, and it will give more opportunities to both TE. It's going to take more than that to give Fleener the elite upside he was drafted for though.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
How do you know they drafted Allen due to him being BPA? They specifically mentioned using them like the Patriots used Gronk/Hernandez. I'll see if I can find the quote(s).
Even if we assume it is a competition and that one guy will be the main recipient of Luck's production, the elite upside is still there for the winner. I think it's a bit early for raising Allen's arm. And again, I hate even talking like this because it sounds a lot like the Gronk/Hernandez talks, and we see how that turned out.
I actually think whether Allen was BPA or Indy was interested in employing a two-TE offense doesn't matter that much... I think that Fleener's value was set under the assumption that he was going to be the primary benefactor at TE in Indy. Allen's strong play certainly diminishes that possibility in the eyes of many owners.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think this is valid, if those were the expectations going in. Fleener was drafted in rookie drafts after the NFL draft - we knew they invested a high pick on Allen when we took Fleener. Fleener was the top TE in the class and was drafted 33rd, and the Colts said they were surprised he fell. Allen was thought to be the top TE going into the year, before off the field issues and the combine. Both are top end talents, in my opinion. At the very least, if we assume one man wins, the play is getting both guys, each of whose value is greater than a future 2nd.
Just my opinion, and we'll see. The only place I own Fleener, I also own Allen, so I don't have a horse in the race, in that regard. I just think we're looking at two guys likely to each have TE1 production pretty soon. Maybe I'm wrong and it's one guy with top 5 production, and his handcuff.
In retrospect, it does make sense when you look at the draft position and skill set that Allen brings. However, I'm pretty sure that the consensus (right or wrong) was that it was expected that Fleener would absolutely be the primary TE to own there; and I think that the production last year really changed that and lowered Fleener's value.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Are both top end talents? Allen is sort of a Heath Miller or Alge Crumpler type of guy. Pro Bowl caliber player, reliable, but is not going to provide consistent elite production. Even if he breaks through next year, EBF will ask if he's overvalued. Fleener is tall and fast but has hands issues. The upside is there but he's a work in progress at best, right?
The future 2nd can't be underestimated especially if you're focusing on the TE position. It's easy to turn that future 2nd into Kelce or Taylor Thompson or whoever you like at TE. You could probably turn a future 2nd into Dwayne Allen given in most leagues he was drafted in the 4th.
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EBF
Footballguy
I like the Blackmon side as well. Bit of a gamble, but more upside. Maclin is who he is. And I was pretty disappointed with Torrey Smith this past season. Looks like more of a pure deep threat than a complete WR. For the time being he's the de facto "#1 WR" for Baltimore, but I expect them to add somebody significant in the draft to do all the possession stuff. Maybe Da'Rick Rogers, Quinton Patton, or Chris Harper.
EBF
Footballguy
I also like the 1.05 side. That pick should still net you a good player and the 2014 1st has the potential to be very valuable.
cstu
Footballguy
I had the opportunity to meet Dwayne Allen after the draft last year and he's an absolute beast of a man. I immediately regretted not taking him in my draft. I still question his upside vs. Fleener but he's going to remain a big part of the offense. Like Jared Cook, Fleener is basically a WR playing TE because of his size. As long as he's healthy I expect him to put up TE1 numbers in that offense.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
Not Gronk-top-end, but Rudolph, sure. Pitta, Finley (or whomever else after the top 3 and 2 HOFers), sure. Both were good enough prospects to be one of the first 2 drafted in most drafts - Allen fell despite that, for other reasons. Couple their talent with their opportunity – playing and growing with a guy we all expect to be a pro-bowl regular, at least - that’s where the value and potential comes in. In a vacuum, I wouldn’t be as excited about either of these guys, while I’d still like their individual talent. But I like investing in Luck’s likely future, pass-catching TE(s).
If you're trading for a future 2nd, hoping for a TE - what's the point? TE's take a year to provide your fantasy team value. The play is to target the TE's coming into their second seasons, if their owners are willing to sell at a discout. Sure, you get some Kendricksses, but you'll cash in plenty too.
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
Now is a good time to take a shot on Fleener for a 2nd round rookie pick. I saw many Stanford games over the past few years and I think he's a much better athlete than Ertz, who some tab as a potential late first round pick tonight. Long term, I still think he has a chance to be the better FF weapon than Allen. And I'm of the mind that Indy's passing game has a chance to be like Green Bay and New Orleans with its ability to elevate the production of its players.
The downside with Fleener is that he's a bit old for a 2nd year player and he has a tendency to get dinged up. He's never had a serious injury, but gets nicked up very easily.
The downside with Fleener is that he's a bit old for a 2nd year player and he has a tendency to get dinged up. He's never had a serious injury, but gets nicked up very easily.
Sure, what I'm saying is that I think most people expected him to get a lion's share and to have a better season than he did. I remember hearing how he was NFL ready and should step right in and produce with his college QB, etc. I don't think most people expected those results or the splits. Nothing catastrophic, and it could all change this year, but I do think it impacts his current value some.
To clarify, Allen is only one reason why I think his value is lower- Fleener being a bit less productive, Allen being a bit more, and the emergence of other TEs for fantasy purposes all are factors. To me, these factors add up to a somewhat lower value than a year ago, and I think it will be reflected in trades and adp as well.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Added this after your quote:
TE's take a year to provide your fantasy team value. The play is to target the TE's coming into their second seasons, if their owners are willing to sell at a discount. Sure, you get some Kendricksses, but you'll cash in plenty too.
It all goes back to this, again, in my opinion (which is only that): If you liked Fleener's talent a year ago, I don't see reason to sell for less than you paid. And it's not a stubborn thing - it's just that I don't think his value dropped. He's still a talented kid whose QB and team love him, likely to play in a high-powered offense with a top 5 QB.
If we sold Fleener because of hands issues, we'd have sold Hernandez and Graham too. If we sold him because he was outplayed by another TE on the roster, we'd have sold Gronk (then Hern), and Pitta. If we sold him becuase he didn't give us fantasy points, we'd have sold on Rudolph, most recently, and just about every TE outside of NE and Shockey.
ETA: I remember F&L getting blasted for having both Hernadez and Gronk top 10. People claimed that that he need to pick a winner. I couldn't count how many times I read "Hernandez can't be X - he's not even the top TE on his team". The NE situation is ideal and rare, and it's never a likely outcome. But it's a model in which it worked, and can work, even if not at that level.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think you're right. His value does seem to be down, and for the reasons you mention. I just question whether or not it should be. Luck looked great last year and that was a plus for every potential target on the roster.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
The guy that was offered Murray snapped this up faster than a fly in a frog farm. He wasn't enamored with MJD anyway, but I think I'd rather have MJD for a couple more years than to deal with Murray (or someone like Ryan Mathews who you could probably get for Murray). I don't think Murray will ever be healthy enough to count on and even when he's been healthy the TD's just aren't there....same with Mathews.Dragon1952 said:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think MJD is a better re-draft option, so I agree somewhat. But his knee is a hot potato and he'll be harder to move than Murray due to age. If I was looking to move Murray due to injury concern, it wouldn't be for MJD.
I think when you evaluate it, which is more surprising- Luck looking great or Fleener and Allen doing what they did? Granted, Luck probably looked even better than many expected, but pretty much everyone knows he's a stud, so that was already mostly factored into Fleener's long term value.
What about the other TEs? Besides the mainstays, guys like Pitta, Olsen, Rudolph, Bennett, Myers, etc. all got a nice boost in value, and now we have Eifert and Ertz coming into the league as well. Value is relative, so Fleener's can drop even if his expected production does not if others catch up to him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think Luck showed to be a stud faster than most thought. And, again, I agree with you about his market value being low, and I do understand the reasoning behind it.
As for the TE field being flooded - honestly, that pushes me more towards Fleener/Allen. It gives me incentive to invest in upside over current production, which is now at a discount. Give me Fleener/Allen/Bennett over Pitta (or Davis, or Olsen, or Finley)/Bennet, for example. Swing for the fences and baseline replacements are everywhere if you miss.
I think it's been a good, productive conversation, and I've enjoyed having it. But I think I've said everything, at this point. I do understand why the market could value him less. I personally don't, and would look to acquire Allen before moving Fleener for a future 2nd rounder.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
I read an "a" in the middle of Kendricksses at first. What are your thoughts on Jermaine Gresham? Gresham had a historically great rookie year and has improved statistically every year he's been in the league. He has more pedigree, more production and more upside than Fleener, but his value keeps decreasing. There's a couple trades that focus on him in this thread, one for 1.11 and one for a 2014 2nd (although both much more complicated, that's the gist). If Fleener's career arc follows Gresham's (which is actually asking a lot, right?) then I'm not sure giving up on him is a bad idea. It's only a bad idea if you think he's going to start looking like a great TE. When discussed above, you mentioned Pitta/Finley. I'm not sure that's enough.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don’t think his value should be decreasing, especially after a good season. He’s only 24 or 25 and, as you said, he has the pedigree and talent. The reason his value is falling is because every season he has outside of the top 5, the more the market comes to the conclusion that he’s met his potential. I’d disagree with that. Jason Witten wasn’t who he is until his 5th season in the league. Greg Olsen the same, on a smaller level. Heath Miller later than that. All due to coaching/team changes.
As for his value in relation to Fleener/Allen – we have to look outside of the vacuum, and look situation. As you know, I’m a Dalton guy, but everyone is a Luck guy, for good reason. Different levels of future production and different probabilities of that happening. Because of that, I think Fleener/Allen have a more clear path to top 5 numbers. Not that it’s likely, but the path is more clear.
I’d likely take Gresham over either of the two, but I’d gladly take both over him, and, correct me if I’m wrong, but based on ADP, I’m likely to get both for the same price.
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kutta
Footballguy
I would take Jackson over Britt and Austin over Britt individually. Britt is waaaay too brittle for me to trade two pretty decent guys for him.
Winning IS Everything
Footballguy
Not involved in this trade.........
Team A Gave: Mark Ingram
Team B Gave: Steve Johnson
Team A Gave: Mark Ingram
Team B Gave: Steve Johnson
Sabertooth
Footballguy
One More Rep
Footballguy
I like Blackmon, but same with Torrey. While I would trade Torrey for Blackmon, I would not be comfortable adding Maclin to the trade.
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Definitely Hernandez in the second one, I'm struggling with the other.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Spin
Footballguy
Hernandez, by quite a bit, and I like Gresham, just think Maclin is very overrated
Hmm, this is close. But I probably lean towards Blackmon here. But I could easily see the Stewart side.
Scooby
Footballguy
I need to shop Blackman in my leagues, i do like him, but it seems his value is going up and up...
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Wasn't going to post this since it's NMT but since there's so much Blackmon movement
12 team PPR
Pead
DRich
CGivens STL
Britt
for
Ingram
Blackmon
Torrey
12 team PPR
Pead
DRich
CGivens STL
Britt
for
Ingram
Blackmon
Torrey
Completely lopsided. I think the bottom team is getting the best three players in the deal.
Spin
Footballguy
Wow Blackmon side easily. Going to suck for team acquiring STL backs to see them draft a rb.
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
wow. Posts like this make me chuckle a little more after getting Blackmon for Pick 2/Steven Hill.
How was Gresham's rookie year historically great? Solid sure, but historically great? Very similar to rookie years from guys like Keller and Carlson. Two other TE's who did not show significant second year growth and never have and to me that's extremely important. Gresham improved each year but his improvement was meager. That's why I sold Gresham everyplace I owned him after year two because historically if you analyze TE's that are getting meaningful playing time in year two they either take a second year leap or they never do. Gresham did not take a meaningful second year leap and did not in year three either. That's why his value is dropping, he's not getting significantly better. He's barely getting better at all.
Again almost every major producing fantasy TE took a significant or major leap in year two and I define the leap as percentage of improvement in receptions and yards. Gonzo, Gates, Hernandez, Whitten, Finley, Fred Davis, Pitta, Pettigrew, Graham, Finley, Rudolph, , Daniels, Vernon, and to a lesser extent but still a big jump relative to what they did their rookie seasons you can add Housler. In terms of percentage Cook and Cameron more than tripled their production from year 1 to year 2 but the end result was poor but still marked improvement. I'm not including Olsen who took a much bigger second year leap than Gresham has shown from year one to year two but not enough for me to label it as significant.
So let's look at Coach Potato's top 10 dynasty TE's because I need some kind of point of reference. 8 out of the 10 are referenced above, they all took second year leaps. Major leaps. A 9th was Olsen who improved a good amount but I'd not label it significant and Fleener was the other so incomplete. Expand this to the top 20 and it's more of the same. Only 3 in the 11-20 group did not take a second year leap. Gresham was one. The other 2 were barely getting playing time in year two, Myers and Marty B. Than you have Cameron who I referenced earlier and while I hesitate to say he took a second year leap he did triple his production.
So again you look at that and unless a TE is riding the pine in year two it seems fairly obvious to me that they either show drastic statistical improvement in year two and if they don't they likely never will. Productive rookies like Gresham, Keller and Carlson come to mind and to many to count that did not produce in year 1 or year 2 or ever, at least so far. Guys like Kendricks, Moeaki, etc, etc. That's why Gresham is losing value. Its why I'd not be giving up on a guy like Fleener when he's entering year two.And I'm not trying to say Fleener is a lock to take that leap. I'm saying for those teams that used a high pick and a roster spot on him all year now is not the time to give up.
Dragon1952
Footballguy
Since Blackmon is a popular trade subject lately, this is one that went down a couple weeks ago.
12 team, 1 PPR
12 team, 1 PPR
- Justin Blackmon, Jared Cook, Taylor Thompson, Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.08;Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.11
- for
- Jimmy Graham
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thriftyrocker
Footballguy
That's fair. Not wanting to argue semantics or argue anything really. Just having a discussion.
The majority of Dynasty leagues I'm in the startups were done in the 2011 off season. So when Gresham, Gronk, Graham, Hernandez, and Moeaki were entering their second year. Most of these were 1.5 TE PPR leagues and I went after all these guys but got most of them except Graham who was a third round type at the time.
Between the other's I rated Gresham the highest followed in order as Gronk, Hernandez, and Moeaki. In one league I got all 4 of them but in every league I got at least Gronk and one more of the group. Gresham was a 6th-7th rounder at the time, the two NE"s were 7-8 round range and Moeaki was a late 11th-12th rounder.
So at one point I admit that I had Gresham rated over the NE's in large part because of his rookie year.. But when he did not show big second year improvement I moved him. Same for Moeaki and I"ll move Fleener and/or Allen next year in the leagues I own them if they don't spike their production up.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Don't know if Moeaki should be on that list, seeing as how he tore his ACL. And Gresham was young coming into the league, dealt with some injuries, and has still improved on his numbers every year. I personally am not ready to write him off. I'll admit he hasn't been a target of mine, as there seems to be at least one guy per league really high on him. But I certainly wouldn't be selling. And if his price keep dropping, I could send some offers.
