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Jones' per- numbers better be better since he's got Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez drawing coverage away. And Ryan is considerably better than Dalton.If Jones is still doing that when White and Gonzo are gone then it'll be something to use. But right now their situations are just completely different.'gianmarco said:
Yes.
As a Bengals fan....absolutely, no question.
Don't bother.'bengalbuck said:
Hmmm...probably...but hard to say at this juncture of Dalton's career. With the influx of QBs producing well in their rookie season, it is easy to forget that the conventional wisdom was that it takes 3-5 for a QB to master that position. And the learning curve is obviously not the same for everyone. We have only seen a couple years of what Dalton can do. Drew Brees took time to develop (not saying Dalton will be the next Brees) so I don't think one can definitely conclude that Ryan will be judged considerably better if we were to revisit this topic a few years down the line.
+ 100Can you imagine what A.J. Green could do with Ryan, or any QB that doesn't have a noodle for an arm. He'd be Calvin ala 2011, plus some.
That's kind of how I feel as well. Ryan has Julio, Roddy, Gonzalez, and a dome to work with, so I would certainly expect quoted numbers to favor Ryan. Listen, I had Matt Ryan as my QB2 in dynasty a couple years ago behind Rodgers, so I don't want to come across as if I've never liked Matt Ryan or think he's a bad football player. I just haven't really seen enough to where I think he's a truly elite QB. I'd suggest his upside is limited. Sure, he can win regular season games, but I'd be much more comfortable with Russell Wilson in the playoffs than I would Matt Ryan, all else being equal. "Considerably" is something I just don't feel comfortably with here. I walk away feeling like he's fool's gold, which is certainly an opinion.
So if Dalton had Roddy, Julio, Tony Gonzo, and a better running game out there, how many games does he win in ATL regular season this year? I'd suggest it's not much different.
Everyone in the NFL has talent. McFadden has great speed, but is below average in other regards. Out of the 24 RBs in the league who had 200+ carries this season, he finished dead last in YPC. He was also dead last in the Football Outsiders RB rankings. You can blame that on scheme all you want, but consider for a moment the possibility that maybe he just isn't a very good RB. A great RB doesn't need the scheme tailored to his exact skill set in order to succeed. McFadden does because he has a really narrow range of skills. Nevermind the fact that he can't stay healthy. Overall, his career has been pretty much exactly what I said it would be when he was coming out, so ironically I've probably earned more credibility on this particular player than the people who took the bait when he was touted as the next Peterson.
Yet you are still making excuses for Stewart. Stop cherry picking your correct and incorrect calls.
Dalton's career numbers match up nicely to Ryan's first 2 years.
Probably not, but I think that says more for the ATL offense, than Dalton vs. Ryan.If Ryan were on the Bengals, I think they win vs. Houston in the playoffs. That's why I feel Ryan is "considerably" better.
Stewart has always had DeAngelo as a thorn in his side. It's kind of an unprecedented situation. A team with two top 10-15 RBs who somehow found it in themselves to pay BOTH of them and extend BOTH of them. It has torpedoed their careers from a FF standpoint. Just look at D-Will. Probably one of the best all-around backs of his generation, but his FF career has been weak. If Stewart had been on the Raiders with only Bush and table scraps as competition, I think he would've logged multiple top 10-15 seasons by now. The big thing there is that I never anticipated the complete and utter lack of opportunity that has plagued his career.
And don't forget his constant pimping of Mendenhall. I can't remember which thread it was in, but SSOG made out a fool out of him a few months back pointing ou the double standard of his use of stats regarding DMC and Mendy and ignoring things like receptions/receiving yards which also count in most fantasy leagues.
I think you'd get a lot of disagreement with this statement.
I take into account that Julio had the ankle and knee issues affecting his overall production for several games. Without those issues, I think his overall PPR numbers this year would have been a lot closer to Green's (not that Julio's numbers were not already very good). Im somewhat surprised the numbers came out this way for the year. For one, Julio catches a lot of short screen passes (which you would think would reduce his yards per reception) and Julio had one game this year (when he had the hand injury) where he had 8 targets and only 1 reception (reducing his yards per target).While I consider Julio's usage on both short (I envision him getting a lot of easy PPR points that way in the long term) and long routes and his toughness down the middle an overall positive, one concern I have is that he does get beat up more than AJ Green does (whom I normally don't see getting smashed in the middle).
If Stewart were (top 10-15) he would've been a starting RB in the NFL by now. "Potential" messes with people's minds. After a while, "They are who we thought they were" by Denny Green makes sense. Or else we could twist every players situation into whatever makes us feel better: Ryan Mallett is a top 3 QB, but Tom Brady is the best QB...in due time.
I don't agree with that. Williams and Stewart are in the same boat. Really talented guys with the misfortune of being stuck on the same team throughout most of their prime. Carolina's decision to keep both of them indefinitely was strange and probably not very wise. It's good for Stewart and Williams because they haven't taken the beating that they would've elsewhere, but it's bad for their stats because neither guy has really had an extended opportunity to be the man. I think if either of these guys had been drafted by almost any other team in the league, you would've seen some really great FF seasons by now. But that's just not how it worked out. I don't think it has a lot to do with ability, as both of those guys have it in droves. Even if you don't rate Stewart, Williams is walking proof for how a really good all-around back can have his value decimated by the lack of opportunity. He's been an excellent NFL player for years, but nearly useless in FF for the last few years.
DeAngelo had one good season and has been underwhelming the rest. He is not an excuse. Also, I'd rather the guy who has and will average 20 in a friendly scheme rather than the guy who I have seen no sign of doing so, re: DMC vs. Stewart. I hate to make this a comparison thread, but it just seems odd that you are willing to make whatever excuse possible for being on Stewart's bandwagon, yet every excuse possible to hate DMC.
When people post trades, they'll still be seen.
He has a 4.9 career YPC. He has been consistently excellent throughout his career.I think you're confusing lack of opportunity with lack of performance.
I think there's a pretty clear difference in their situations. One guy has been given countless opportunities to be the focal point of his team and has consistently disappointed. The other guy has been forced to split carries with a Pro Bowl caliber RB his entire career.
No, no, he's right. I apologize petenice, I enjoy keeping more to myself anyway. Carry on.
4.9 YPC = Pro Bowl Caliber now? If it makes you feel better to use DeAngelo as a shield for Stewart, so be it, but you are essentially suggesting if DeAngelo were healthy for full 16 games that he'd be in consideration for Pro Bowls. Many would suggest the very same for DMC.
Now I'm done. Carry on learning so much from completed trades, most of which are extremely lopsided to the seasoned dynasty veteran.
The individual opinion on players is the best part of the thread. No point posting page after page of Player X for Player Y, Z and Pick A if that doesn't lead to a discussion of the value and consequently the players themselves. The guys on here know far more than I could hope to and the discussions that come from completed trades are priceless for someone who takes this hobby seriously. imo
Actually I come here more for the discussions. That is how I gauge the trade value of players, seeing just a trade listed in isolation doesn't tell me if my opinion of the trade is correct.Yes, this annual thread always occasionally goes off the rails a bit debating an individual trade, but it always self corrects. And as noted earlier one can always skip the discussions by scrolling past them, even though it might take a page or 2.
There has to be a typo here. Even if one did not believe in Givens and thought his rookie season was a mirage, his production as a rookie would surely garner more than a 4th round pick two drafts away. Why settle for that?
Both trades are a result of the following factors: (1) The smaller rosters. In season, roster size is 20, but in the offseason, we have to cut down to 16 (including K and Def) by February 28. That leaves guys like Chris Givens sometimes a waiver wire casualty. In fact, there is a chance Chris Givens doesn’t make my roster at cut down and I just wasted a 4th rounder. In the case of Owen Daniels, the other team was a very good one and trading Owen Daniels allowed that team to keep another good fantasy asset while pocketing a 2nd rounder in the process (that, and Owen Daniels performance from mid-season on probably left a bad taste). Neither was a "couldn't hit accept fast enough" type of situation. (2) Rookie draft includes free agents. With the smaller rosters, there is a larger pool from which to draft, making a 2.08 a little more valuable imo. That value may be offset, however, by the fact that several rookies drafted at 2.08 end up on the waiver wire at some point during the season anyway (again, due to the smaller rosters). On the other hand, we have to fill our rosters with enough producing players to compete, and as far as veterans go, one could have drafted a Heath Miller or Kellen Winslow type at 2.08, usually later.
So it is a 16 keeper. It might have been better to give the roster and cut down requirements when you first posted, only because "smaller roster" is ambiguous. Some people who play in really deep roster leagues (30+) consider a roster of 24 smaller.
Don't go anywhere bro. Anyone who's been here a while knows what you bring to the table. Watching you and EBF debate players is valuable info. I don't care to see just players trades without some chatter regarding them.
First let me if Ernol is not the best Dynasty fantasy football player I've ever witnessed at a minimum he's put together the best team and best set of teams I've ever seen anyone put together and he did so against some of the stiffest competition that exists in fantasy football.I'm the guy who traded Owen Daniels for pick 2.8. Actually posted that trade on here earlier and did describe the leagues format when I did. I thought it was a fair trade. If I'd waited longer I might have got a better deal but in the two weeks I shopped him in that league that was the by far the best offer I got. I also had OD and traded him in another league with this same format and in both leagues when I made offers to teams that included Daniels in it I was almost always met with "I don't much care for Daniels". In the other league I got back Dustin Keller because he's about 2 years younger, more durable over his career and decent chance he exits the Jets and if so it's going to be hard to end up on a worse offense with a worse QB than he's endured the past few years.The trade of Daniels for the 2.8 pick was for exactly the reasons Ernol stated. I was looking at a situation where I was going to cut a player I really liked but instead picked up a second round pick. Let's say that player I kept instead was Housler who was under consideration to get cut. So to me I just traded Owen Daniels for Housler and pick 2.8. I also have both Colt TE's in that league and was not ecstatic about carrying 4 TE's on a 14 position roster.BTW on Daniels. He's been injury prone his entire career and turns 31 next season and in short I don't think he has much left, at best one more usable year. At a $4+ million salary next year I would not be shocked if the Texans cut him and went with Garret Graham/Casey. Fact they don't have a decent WR2 will probably save him but his contract runs out after next year. He's an old looking 30 year old as is and he'd be hard pressed to find a better system than the one is in now. So I'd be looking to deal him even if the roster sizes did not need to be trimmed.
You should probably take a look at where that 4.9 career average puts him on the all time leaderboard. The number of current NFL RBs that would put DeAngelo Williams completely on the bench is one, and his name is Adrian Peterson. Anyone else is in RBBC with him just like Stewart has been.
I'd like to hear why. This is really interesting to think about, but I can't think of a single reason why.
By this line of thinking, with Stewart currently at 4.7 career YPC might be able to make the HOF if he has a couple years of 5.0+ YPC. GOD I WANTED TO STAY AWAY....but..I'm at the airport, have had a couple tequilas, and just could not, so apologies to the esteemed petenice!
4.9 YPC for a full-time back will lead you to the pro-bowl, yes.
Here's the simple reason why for me, which has been discussed with other players. And I'll try to use a similar example to explain.Calvin Johnson is an absolute stud. He will also be turning 28 this year. So, many will say "he's easily got 4-5 years of elite production left" and I completely agree. That said, the VALUE he will have in just 2-3 years won't remain the same, even with the name Calvin Johnson. Look no further than 3 years ago. 2010 WR rankingsThere are other threads, but these were pretty popular rankings and you'll see that many agreed that AJ was at the top of the list or just out of the top and ahead of Calvin at the time. Calvin had only been in the league 3 years, was big time hyped, had a great 2nd year, but still hadn't "convinced" everyone. Meanwhile, Andre Johnson was coming off his 2nd straight 100/1500 year and was finally living up to the hype. At that time, as you can see in that thread, A. Johnson was 29 and Calvin was 25.3 years have now passed and look at their values. A. Johnson is still putting up monster numbers as he just finished with 112/1598 this year. But he's 31 going on 32 and you can't even think about sniffing Calvin for AJ let alone other top WRs. Meanwhile, Calvin has easily surpassed him and has been universally considered the top dynasty WR for the last 2 years. Now, Calvin is the 28 year old "proven" elite stud WR and Julio and AJG are going into their 3rd years. In Calvin's 2nd year, he put up 79/1331/12. Julio just put up 79/1198/10. AJG put up 97/1350/11.Bottomline, I don't think Calvin is going to outperform either of those guys by enough in the next 2-3 yrs to justify the difference in that value in 2-3 yrs. In 3 yrs, Calvin will be 31 and Julio will be only 27. If he continues, Julio will be untouchable and Calvin will be today's Andre Johnson. Add in the fact that you can likely get extra thrown in on top, and it's a good move at this point, IMO.The difference between these guys is virtually nothing and it's not as if Calvin's value is gonna start falling today. But, it will start happening soon, likely as early as next year. So, for me, it's already gotten to the point where I have both of these guys ever so slightly ahead of Calvin.
There is some validity in your point but also some flaws. The main one being you seem to want to compare 28 year old Andre with 28 year old Calvin and 28 year old Andre or any age Andre was never as good as Calvin last year. From a fantasy standpoint he was never as good as Calvin was last year when he was actually better than he was this year. In short, Andre may be great but he's never been as good as Calvin either and I consider that the major flaw of your argument.That being said I was in one my first Dynasty startup drafts in 2010 and drew the #4 pick. Chris Johnson, Rice and ADP were close to a consensus top 3 and most leagues saw MJD and Andre going #4 or #5. So I get on the clock and the 3 aforementioned RB's are gone. I did not trust MJD, felt that due to his size his shelf life was about 2-3 more years and I'm not a "just a 3 year down the road guy". I felt the same way about Andre. I felt he'd be good longer than MJD but soon, probably as soon as next season, I'd have spent my first round pick and foundation of my team on a declining asset. The guy I wanted to pick was Calvin who at the time I was seeing usually go in the 7-10 range. So in man ways similar to where you might see Calvin go now vs a guy like Julio or AJ Green. In the end I held up the draft about a few hours frantically trying to trade the pick and finally found a taker that enabled me to trade back and still get Calvin. So on one hand I see your point, but again the flaw is Calvin is better than Andre ever was.
Between 2003 (his rookie year) and 2010, Andre Johnson played in all sixteen games 5 of those 7 years. He missed 3 games in his 3rd year (2005) and missed 7 games in 2007. His injury risk was way overblown.
Technically, yes, but the difference is far less than what you represented. I think you're either overvaluing what Calvin has done or forgetting how good AJ was. In PPR leagues, here is how they have stacked up.AJ's 4 best years:321 fantasy points (2008, year 6 of his career)313 fantasy points (2009, year 7 of his career)296 fantasy points (2012, year 10 of his career)He also had 193 fantasy points in just 9 games in 2007 (year 5 of his career), prorated out to 343 points. Calvin's 4 best year;283 fantasy points (2008, year 2 of his career)264 fantasy points (2010, year 4 of his career)361 fantasy points (2011, year 5 of his career)348 fantasy points (2012, year 6 of his career)Now, I know we're not looking at a full season when looking at AJ's best, but that prorated year he was unstoppable. His peak is comparable to Calvin's peak. They are both 300+ point WRs at their best and their top years compare pretty favorably. Yes, Calvin has been better than AJ ever was, but not by a very large amount at all. And AJ's 3 year stretch from 2007-2009 was as dominant as any other.It's easy to forget and overlook things like this.'menobrown said:
Not really. We've seen Andres peak and it's 40 fantasy points under Calvin's best year. That's fairly close but not sure I'd call that comparable.As for Calvin I don't think we've seen his peak yet, that would be coming close to the yardage he had this year with his typical amount of TD's. When I look at "peak" I look at it this way:If you took Andres career and combined his best years for receptions, yardage and TD's you would have a 115 receptions, 1,598 yards and 9 TD's. That would be 328 fantasy points.If you took the same formula for Calvin you would have 122 catches, 1,964 yards and 16 TD's. That would be 414 fantasy points.
