ghostguy123
Footballguy
Overpaying helps you with future deals?? No way, lolHowever, i dont think you overpaid on this one
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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
I think there's some truth to it. If you know that an owner is willing to accept borderline deals, you might cut him some slack in one deal knowing that he'll probably do the same for you down the road. On the flipside, if you know that an owner never does trades that aren't grossly lopsided in his favor, you'll eventually view every offer that he sends with extreme skepticism. Obviously you want to win every trade and come out ahead long term, but if you're never willing to play ball then it might discourage people from sending you offers or accepting the offers that you send.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
"Slight overpaying" is okay in my book. Blatant overpaying I would not advise. I get the lol in it though. You don't want to become everyone's B****, but it helps to not "blatantly win" every time.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Obviously I don't like to root for people to fail but for me I just felt like I was done with the roller coaster of Hakeem Nicks... Maybe he gets healthy and stays healthy and puts up ridiculous top 5 WR numbers... or maybe he has another season like last yr or worse and his situation changes from somebody they want to extend and commit to on their team to somebody that really is never the same because their body for whatever reason can't seem to deal with the toll that football puts on it.I like Nicks and I like to root for him because I think he is a freak but I also feel like he may never fully live up to what I THOUGHT he could be because his body just won't hold up long enough.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
I think that's an under-rated strategy (at least in my dynasty league)... I typically don't mind overpaying a little to get what I covet at the time and I have a reputation for being willing to part with just about anyone as long as I feel I have enough in the cupboard to compensate for the loss of said player. Im also perhaps a little too confident in my ability to draft good productive players who don't bust and sometimes that seems to get me in trouble too. I guess my "style" is a little bit like Scrat the Squirrel from the Ice Age movies... I seem to fixate on that shiny nut a little too much to the point that sometimes I "give away" a productive player for little more than a lottery ticket.If you know your league mates understand that you are prone to maybe give up on a player a little early you may be surprised when you see some of the offers that you get. Example: I WAS a huge fan of Jermichael Finley a few years back but I also had Hernandez and Cook so I was able to turn that "man crush" on Finley into a 1st and Vernon Davis... Then I traded VD for a 1st Rd pick as well later in that season...With those rookie picks (1.7 & 1.8) I took Cam Newton (lucky... picked for upside) & Randall CobbBottom line is that I believe KNOWING your league mates well and what THEY value is an important piece of information to have. I believe understanding your own strengths and weaknesses can also be an important factor as to the success you will have with your trades.I feel I prolly overpaid for the 1.2 in my Nicks trade but only time will tell if that move made sense.'King of the Jungle said:'ghostguy123 said:
JamboTaylor
Footballguy
16-team 0.5ppr
GAVE
1.03
2.06
GOT
Justin Blackmon
GAVE
1.03
2.06
GOT
Justin Blackmon
Donsmith753
Footballguy
Blackmon Not close
jurb26
Footballguy
Huh? I'd say that is close, very close. Seems like a fair trade. I'd probably take the picks side personally.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I'll take Blackmon over pick 3 easily.
I totally agree with the guy who said "Blackmon, not close".
The perceived value of the deal is probably close, but I rank blackmon ahead of anyone in this draft by far
I totally agree with the guy who said "Blackmon, not close".
The perceived value of the deal is probably close, but I rank blackmon ahead of anyone in this draft by far
jurb26
Footballguy
Well, I'd clearly take Lacy over Blackmon. There are a couple of others I'd rank right about the same as Blackmon but it's close.
EBF
Footballguy
There are some receivers in this draft who have a chance to be better than Blackmon, but there's nobody who will grade out as high or get picked as high. I don't think I'd give him up for the 1.01 this year. In another year, it would probably be a different story. This draft lacks bankable first round talent at the skill positions though.
It's a deal that could work out for the guy getting the 1.03, but he'll have to pick well. The only thing I really like about the deal is getting the 2nd rounder. Sometimes you whiff on a deal like this and the second rounder ends up becoming a star. It's rare, but it happens.
It's a deal that could work out for the guy getting the 1.03, but he'll have to pick well. The only thing I really like about the deal is getting the 2nd rounder. Sometimes you whiff on a deal like this and the second rounder ends up becoming a star. It's rare, but it happens.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
No, its not close. Ive been trying to unload the 1.01 plus picks for blackmon but the owner won't bite.
Dinsy Ejotuz
Footballguy
I'd give up Blackmon for Lacy in a heartbeat assuming it's a start two RB league.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Lacy? The guy ran behind the best offensive line in college football and cant stay healthy during the off season before even playing a down in the nfl. I'll pass.
jurb26
Footballguy
Seriously, this is a reason?
squistion
Footballguy
You got that right. In one league I made two trades with the same owner last year that looked even at the time, but he ended up the clear winner in both. Maybe he was lucky but more likely he is a better judge of talent than I am. The next trade we do will have to lean in my favor, because if it seems like an even trade, then I am probably again on the losing side.'cstu said:
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ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
You could be talking about Trent Richardson here.
EBF
Footballguy
Lacy is good, but he's hardly a special prospect in his own right. He might not even be a first round pick when the dust settles.
As of right now here's his overall ranking on some of the draft sites:
CBS/NFL Draft Scout - 33rd
Scout.com - 30th
NFL.com (draft prospects sorted by grade) - 51st
SI.com (Chris Burke) - 35th
The consensus seems to have him as a late 1st-early 2nd rounder.
That doesn't mean he won't end up being a good pro. With his frame and well-rounded skill set, I like his chances to be successful. But part of the reason why we rate him so high in FF is because the rest of this RB class is so putrid. When you view him in the context of this weak draft, he looks awesome. When you put him in the context of all NFL RBs, he's not really that amazing. Put a Peterson, Stewart, Mathews, or Spiller in this draft and he'd be seen as a second tier prospect.
It's likely that a couple WRs from this draft will be picked higher. And I'd bet that none of these guys will be picked higher than where Blackmon went. He would almost certainly be the first WR/RB picked if he were available this year. He wasn't quite an elite prospect either, but shifting him for a guy like Lacy/Patterson/Rogers/Allen/Hunter is a lateral move at best if you take positional scarcity out of the equation.
As of right now here's his overall ranking on some of the draft sites:
CBS/NFL Draft Scout - 33rd
Scout.com - 30th
NFL.com (draft prospects sorted by grade) - 51st
SI.com (Chris Burke) - 35th
The consensus seems to have him as a late 1st-early 2nd rounder.
That doesn't mean he won't end up being a good pro. With his frame and well-rounded skill set, I like his chances to be successful. But part of the reason why we rate him so high in FF is because the rest of this RB class is so putrid. When you view him in the context of this weak draft, he looks awesome. When you put him in the context of all NFL RBs, he's not really that amazing. Put a Peterson, Stewart, Mathews, or Spiller in this draft and he'd be seen as a second tier prospect.
It's likely that a couple WRs from this draft will be picked higher. And I'd bet that none of these guys will be picked higher than where Blackmon went. He would almost certainly be the first WR/RB picked if he were available this year. He wasn't quite an elite prospect either, but shifting him for a guy like Lacy/Patterson/Rogers/Allen/Hunter is a lateral move at best if you take positional scarcity out of the equation.
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ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I See more Mark Ingram than I do Trent.
I see this from time to time, but...he really was.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Fair enough, we have to trust our own eyes in cases like this, and I respect that.I was just making the point that those specific criticisms seem underwhelming, overall. There are plenty of other criticisms you could put forth, I admit that even as a huge Lacy believer.
cstu
Footballguy
Not close at all for me either. That's not to say the player at 1.03 couldn't be as good but I was sold that he was going to be a stud last year and he did nothing to change my mind.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
Yeah I hear you and I agree with that. I actually like lacy more than Ingram. He falls forward at the end of his runs which is a trait I look for in running backs. Doesn't dance all that much. Picks his hole and goes forward. I see some good things but I just see Blackmon having a much better career imo.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
there will be some players from this draft that end up better and more valuable than Blackmon..............but WHO???????
This year of all years I personally don't rank pick 10 that much lower than pick 1.
Not like last year where I wouldnt have traded pick 1 for five or six pick 10s.
All I hear people say is "lets see where player X and player Y land.........."........sorry, but if you need a guy to land in a desirable spot, chances are he isn't that special of a talent.
This year of all years I personally don't rank pick 10 that much lower than pick 1.
Not like last year where I wouldnt have traded pick 1 for five or six pick 10s.
All I hear people say is "lets see where player X and player Y land.........."........sorry, but if you need a guy to land in a desirable spot, chances are he isn't that special of a talent.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
I'd take the two picks. Especially in a 16 teamer where depth is tougher to come by, making the 2nd rounder more valuable than normal and also making RBs worth more since there are so few to go around. Especially with only 0.5 PPR.
I also think that while Blackmon is pretty close in talent to the top WRs this year, maybe better, this years guys will end up in better situations likely. Is there a worse situation than Jacksonville? I guess Arizona is pretty awful.
If Keenan Allen or Patterson end up in Pittsburgh for example. Or Tavon Austin lands in St. Louis.
I think there is a very good chance you get equal value at 1.03 and win the trade by getting the early 2nd rounder in a deep draft class.
I also think that while Blackmon is pretty close in talent to the top WRs this year, maybe better, this years guys will end up in better situations likely. Is there a worse situation than Jacksonville? I guess Arizona is pretty awful.
If Keenan Allen or Patterson end up in Pittsburgh for example. Or Tavon Austin lands in St. Louis.
I think there is a very good chance you get equal value at 1.03 and win the trade by getting the early 2nd rounder in a deep draft class.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
All true............but this year more than others I think it's also true the bust rate will be really high for top picks, and there is no elite talent.Like I said, if you have to draft based on the situation the player lands in, that's not a good sign.
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bengalbuck
Footballguy
You always have to take situation into account. I actually like a guy like Keenan Allen better than Blackmon from a pure talent perspective. If he ends up with Big Ben as opposed to Gabbert, that is just the icing on the cake. Also, while I do focus a lot on pure talent, I also put an equal focus on the situation. I got Alfred Morris early in most of my leagues leagues last offseason and it wasn't because I was wowed by his college highlights, but because Shanahans RBs always put up numbers and the competition was wide open. If a team with an elite QB (like Luck in Indy) drafts a WR in the first, I will bump that guy up a good amount.
SieteCinco
Footballguy
I agree with bengalbuck.If one of Keenan Allen, Cordarrelle Paterson, Justin Hunter, Tavon Austin, or even one of the other top rookie WR's lands in Carolina, Indy, Washington, STL, Pittsburgh, or Baltimore.. that WR's value will rise significantly. All of those teams have young potentially elite QBs (if not already elite - Luck/RG3/Newton) and could possibly be in the market for a true WR1. I usually draft talent and hope it eventually wins out, but I would be all over pairings like Andrew Luck/Kennan Allen, Cam Newton/Cordarrelle Patterson, or RG3/Justin Hunter.
Mighty Mice
Footballguy
If youre looking 2-3 years out, I take Ray rice, all day. I like martin, but Rice far more consistent and proven. Martin had putrid metrics last few weeks. Rookie wall? Or just a guy who started slow, ended slow, and scored a third of his points in a 3 week spurt?'ghostguy123 said:Umm, this is prolly good short AND long term.12 team, PPR, start 1/2/3/1/flex, no contractstraded Ray Ricereceived Doug MartinJust looking to get a bit younger. I like Rice a bit more in the short term, but think they have similar ceilings and floors. I like Martin for the long term. I am also a touch wary of Pierce possibly cutting into Rice's workload. Just a touch, mind you.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
•Team R gave up Alexander, Danario SDC WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.09
•Team S gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.05; Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.01
•Team S gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 2.05; Year 2013 Draft Pick 3.01
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I can very very easily see Martin outscore rice again this season, and the age/workload makes it a no brainer for me.If youre looking 2-3 years out, I take Ray rice, all day. I like martin, but Rice far more consistent and proven. Martin had putrid metrics last few weeks. Rookie wall? Or just a guy who started slow, ended slow, and scored a third of his points in a 3 week spurt?'ghostguy123 said:Umm, this is prolly good short AND long term.12 team, PPR, start 1/2/3/1/flex, no contractstraded Ray Ricereceived Doug MartinJust looking to get a bit younger. I like Rice a bit more in the short term, but think they have similar ceilings and floors. I like Martin for the long term. I am also a touch wary of Pierce possibly cutting into Rice's workload. Just a touch, mind you.
Shutout
Footballguy
I find this very true. It's almost like rope-a-dope. You sometimes can take a lot of small hits and then make a big gain when you need it. There have been lots of times where I throw a guy a bone when he needs it, give a player when his position is hit by injury, etc, and then turn around and receive the exact player i need when I need it. takes a lot of faith to do that but in a dynasty, you learn who you can partner with and who you can't. A few years ago, my QB went down and I had a great team. The sharks came out to try to rape me. Another guy offered me a very good deal on an aging Tom Brady. Worked for me and honestly, worked better than anyone probably thought at that time but then I returned the favor last year and gave him two very good young players for less than what others would offer. Its fair.'EBF said:
Shutout
Footballguy
What size league? I'm a bit surprised anyone got that much for Greene.
Shutout
Footballguy
Yeah, I think if i was the one on the draft pick side of that deal, I would be ok with it. I would take whatever I took at 1.03 and probably hedge the bet on the 2.06 or make soemthing else out of it in another deal. I know its hard to carry the name value of Blackmon right now but I could easily see this being a "win" for the draft pick side of this deal.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Adrian Peterson likely ran behind the best line in football, in his college years. Same with the great Miami trio; Gore, Portis, Willis. That's what happens when you're one of the best prospects in the nation and go to one of the best schools; you have a talent advantage, on average, on a weekly basis. And a hamstring pull? You're passing based on a single hamstring pull?
Lott's Fingertip
Footballguy
As I said, I regard them similarly in the short term.Regarding their output, let's take out their best and worst games (which should favor Rice considerably since Martin had a monster game for his best and Rice had a 3 carry game in week 17 for his worst) and look at the remaining numbers:Rice: 230 carries - 1031 yards = 4.48 ypc55 receptions - 427 yards = 7.76 ypr=1458 yfs / 14g = 104.14 yfs/gMartin:285 - 1187 = 4.16 ypc42 - 432 = 10.28 ypr= 1619 yfs / 14g = 115.64 yfs/gClose enough for government work. Add in the return of two Tampa pro bowl Olinemen, subtract the possible Bernard Pierce effect... We get the picture.I don't blame anybody for preferring Rice, the dude is for real. But a rookie RB getting 1900+ yards from scrimmage is for real too.I can very very easily see Martin outscore rice again this season, and the age/workload makes it a no brainer for me.If youre looking 2-3 years out, I take Ray rice, all day. I like martin, but Rice far more consistent and proven. Martin had putrid metrics last few weeks. Rookie wall? Or just a guy who started slow, ended slow, and scored a third of his points in a 3 week spurt?'ghostguy123 said:Umm, this is prolly good short AND long term.12 team, PPR, start 1/2/3/1/flex, no contractstraded Ray Ricereceived Doug MartinJust looking to get a bit younger. I like Rice a bit more in the short term, but think they have similar ceilings and floors. I like Martin for the long term. I am also a touch wary of Pierce possibly cutting into Rice's workload. Just a touch, mind you.
ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I'm hearing its a tear. I think that's a pretty good reason to like Blackmon over lacy.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Strain = Pull = muscular-fiber tears =/= complete tear. He simply pulled his hamstring.
Banemorth
Footballguy
Wright for me.
Very much agreed. Nice sell-high for the team giving up SV.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think I'd take Wright. But I actually think Vereen's upside is higher. It's not a bad gamble, in my opinion. I really like that they let Woodhead walk and think this offense can produce two viable fantasy options at RB.
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I do agree that Vereen is a lot higher upside; and I also agree that New England can produce two viable options at RB. My reasoning for liking the trade is that I don't think Vereen is the second-best RB on the Patriots.
EBF
Footballguy
I like Wright a lot more. He may not ever become a WR1, but give me him over Vereen all day. Vereen is looking more and more like one of the most overrated players of the offseason. He's not going to be the three down back in New England. More like the third down back. And while he's a decent player, he's much more Kevin Faulk than Darren Sproles. 4.0 career YPC. Has never busted a 20+ yard run. Has never rushed for 50+ yards in a game. One good playoff game and suddenly people are tripping over themselves to buy. Definitely a great time to pawn him off if you somehow got stuck with him.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
He had a 22 yard run this year, and averaged over 4.0 if you include the playoffs. He had an 83 yard recpetion. But I don't think any of this matters for a guy with 62 regular season carries. The sample size is clearly very small. The upside is in his talent. I know you're not high on him, but plenty are, including the Patriots who used a 2nd round pick on the kid. Woodhead had 750 yards, 7 TDs, and 40 receptions last year. Vereen had 400 yards and 4 TDs. I am not projecting 1,150/11 TDs and 50 receptions for him. But that is pretty clear evidence that the Patriots offense can support that production outside of their 2 down back, Ridley. Then there's the potential that he carves into Ridley's touches some.
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ctrlaltdefeat
Footballguy
I think it was on rotoworld but cant tell right now because every time I go to the site it takes me to the nbcsports site which I cant stand.
