Is Hernandez the new Finley? Dude misses half seasons at a time, yet somehow the guy that just acquired him is always the winner of the trade.
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2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread (for completed trades) (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
People need to stop selling him at wholesale prices.
I can't get him in any league I dont own him unless I pay through the nose.
One More Rep
Footballguy
Team A gets Hakeem Nicks/2013 rookie pick 1.6
Team B gets Justin Blackmon/2013 rookie pick 1.5/2013 rookie pick 1.11
Team B gets Justin Blackmon/2013 rookie pick 1.5/2013 rookie pick 1.11
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hmm, basically pick 11 to move up from Nicks to Blackmon (though I can understand at this point if someone said they prefer Blackmon to Nicks straight up).One More Rep said:
I will take Nicks side
cstu
Footballguy
Very little difference between the 1.05 and 1.06 IMO. I view this as Blackmon and the 1.11 for Nicks - I'll take the Blackmon side.
BrainDeadGenius
Footballguy
I'll take Blackmon all day here.
I guess sometimes it doesn't hurt to ask. I was scrolling through rosters, saw an owner who's best rb was Turner and figured what the heck, may as well ask. Never know what people are thinking -- he may view Hernandez as an injury risk or panicked at the need for rb -- of course, I wrote it up that way in the trade offerghostguy123 said:
. Either way, I now have Hernandez at a good price.
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In a 12 team PPR QB flex (can start two 2 QB, but only 4 Points for passing TD vs 6 for receiving/rushing), I made this trade. I got stafford. To give some context, with this trade, he owns 7 picks in top 8 of this draft. What do you all think?
- Rammer Jammer Crimson Tiders gave up Stafford, Matthew DET QB;Moore, Lance NOS WR;Williams, Mike TBB WR
- Offseason sucks! gave up Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.01;Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.02;Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.03
JPeso
Footballguy
Concur here. I like Nicks' as a talent over Blackmon, but when we discount for injury, the 1.11 is more than enough to bridge the gap.
I see this just as vernon for all 3.I do not like it for the vernon side. Think gave up too much value
JPeso
Footballguy
I couldn't deal Dez for AJ. Just don't see that 370-400 point upside with AJ. If I was the holder of RG3/Dez, I would add nothing to get Luck/AJG, but instead would want a mid 2nd or so as a dart come draft day.
JPeso
Footballguy
Have to think at some point in time, even after 1 week, that Holmes will have more flip value than Kolb will ever have.
garlicduck
Footballguy
12 Team PPR with devy picks
Team A gave up:Tate, Ben HOU RBYear 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick (probably late)
Team B gave up:Greene, Shonn TEN RBTolbert, Mike CAR RBYear 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (probably middle)
Team A gave up:Tate, Ben HOU RBYear 2014 Round 2 Draft Pick (probably late)
Team B gave up:Greene, Shonn TEN RBTolbert, Mike CAR RBYear 2014 Round 1 Draft Pick (probably middle)
EBF
Footballguy
Absolutely. Holmes is a frustrating player to own, but he's proven his quality. He's going to produce like a WR2-WR3 when he's healthy and not suspended (in other words, about 50% of the time).
Kolb is just waiver fodder. Barely worth a roster spot unless it's a start 2QB league.
JustinHawkins
Footballguy
Fresh off the press. 12 team PPR dynasty league
I gave: Matt Ryan, D. Moore
I got: Big Ben, Welker, 1.5 rookie pick
I gave: Matt Ryan, D. Moore
I got: Big Ben, Welker, 1.5 rookie pick
pghrob
Footballguy
IMO Ryan is a better dynasty QB than Big Ben due to his being younger and having better offensive passing weapons. Ben always seems to be in the range of Qb10-12. Welker should be be better than Moore this year and next with Manning, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Denver with Thomas and Decker there too. Moore is uncertain with either Flynn or Pryor. Moore has flashed great potential but misses too many games due to injury. He should be the WR1 for the Raiders with DHB gone. The 1.5 rookie pick should give you a decent shot at a good, not great player in this years rookie draft. Seems like a fairly even trade where you got older. That is not necessarily bad if you are in a win now mode and have a better qb that Big Ben.
Phenix
Footballguy
- Flying Ninja Monkeys gave up Ballard, Vick IND RB;Decker, Eric DEN WR
- Kiss My Ring gave up Turner, Michael FA* RB;Gordon, Josh CLE WR; Year 2013 Draft Pick 1.05
cstu
Footballguy
Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Great point! I like the pick but can see the win now potential on the other side
East Bay Rounder
Footballguy
I'm the Flying Ninja Monkeys and agree... I made the trade because I prefer Gordon over Decker and I think 1.05 player has more potential than Ballard. I think Ballard will be solid, but not great. The kicker for me... and a pure gamble... is seeing what I might be able to squeeze out of Turner for a year... it looks grim now, but if he can get into a solid situation and become a solid contributor, I think he can offer similar "one year value" as Ballard.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Age dont win titles, production does. I understand FBGers love youth regardless of production and I love Gordon... but you guys prefer a WR for the Browns over one who has a HoFer throwing to him?
People are more worried about winning titles 3 years from now they forget about this year. Take the upside instead of a virtually for sure producer. Not to mention ADP is 4th round for Decker and 7th for Gordon. Its a value game kids, you will lose yourself trying to score on upside. Heck Ballard even has a 6th round ADP. the 5th pick is an average 10 or lower round ADP. So again, based on opinion I lost the deal I guess, based of facts, ADP and production... there is no way I lost the deal. Oh, and is Turner even on a Team?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Fact???? Pretty sure it isn't a fact that the 5th rookie will go in the 10th round or later in startup dynasty drafts. Maybe redraft, but that is a worthless measure. Actually the 5th rookie is going before the 10th round in the total point redrafts I have just finished.
I mean, I prefer the Decker/Ballard side to this, even though I don't care for Ballard at all (anyone taking him in the 6th is crazy IMO), but don't use the word "fact" and then spew out crap that clearly isn't factual.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
That last line of yours is pretty normal for Phoenix it seems... He can't stand it when ANYBODY thinks that his side lost in a deal so he puts in his justification for why he thinks he won EVERYTIME... I don't have a problem with him listing his reasoning on what he was thinking about in said deals but I do have a problem when he remains close minded and comes across like his opinion (and that's all it is) is the ONLY opinion that is relevant. Trading (especially in dynasty leagues) is very subjective as far as value goes and even more so with different types of scoring. Without knowing what each teams Now goals are or what direction they plan on taking with their team we are really just taking a look at all of these trades in a vacuum... It's fun to discuss and we can get a decent barometer at times with what REAL value some of these players are going for rather than counting so heavily on March or early April ADP...Edit to add: oh yeah and he likes to throw in little condescending barbs in his posts like calling us kids (perhaps inferring that he is an adult)
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ghostguy123
Footballguy
Lol, hard to argue with any of that. However, problem is, we are giving him what he wants........attention. As of this moment, I am off the Phenix wagon. He can get a rise out of other if he wishes I suppose, just won't be from me any more. My idiocy took me too long to realize what I was dealing with. Live and learn. I await his highly intellectual reply to that, because you damn well know there will be one.
It must suck to go through life without ever being able to deal with someone disagreeing with you in an appropriate manner. Good god.
I changed my mind anyway. I prefer Gordon and pick 5. Ballard is totally worthless, or at least will be when they draft/sign someone, or when they give him carries and realize how average he is. And Decker is hurt BADLY by the signing of Welker. Be lucky to score 200 in PPR.
I wish guys would stop using ADP to assess deals. ADP is based on team need at time of draft instead of actual value of the player. According to ADP, Chris Johnson is being drafted before Crabtree, Nicks, Russell and RG3 for example. I don't know anybody who will move either of those players for Chris Johnson straight up.
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Phenix
Footballguy
No, sir, the fact is the Deckers production is better then Gordon that is FACT, I have proof if you like. Hence why I said Facts, ADP and production. Maybe you should read everything, not just the part you see fit.
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Great pt... Middle of last yr I couldn't get anything of value for Chris Johnson and eventually sold him for Vick and Alex Green and some late picks
Phenix
Footballguy
Pot meet kettle! It must suck to go through life without ever being able to deal with someone saying something you dont like, oh wait isnt that what u said? Odd. Sure sounds like you do the same thing.
You sure do know a lot about a dudes life just from a fantasy football message forum, lol. Also must suck going through life thinking your opinion is fact when in actuality its horrible rhetoric. Decker will be lucky to get 200 points? He will get 80 alone from catches. lol Thats with a decrease last year, you know, because when you get an old washed up player like Welker who wasnt even resigned by his team he actually did well with, whats that tell you? It tells you that they plan to do away with a guy like Decker huh? You win any titles?
I love how opinions change just cause I make a deal, but hey I'm the childish one looking for attention, not you.
ETA: Ghostwhatever, I'm still waiting for you to show links of your contributions?
Top 20 QBs of 2012 - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651557&hl=
Top 20 RBs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651603&hl=
Top 20 WRs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651696&hl=
Top 20 TEs of 2012 -http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=651560&hl=
Video Film for Rookies - http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680000&hl=
Some of my effort, now show me yours? Don't worry just like the previous two posts, I will not expect a response. Its also quite obvious you do not have m on ignore.
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Phenix
Footballguy
Yup great point, start of last year I couldnt get ANYTHING for Peterson. How did that turn out?
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GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
FWIW I still have Gordon (a Browns WR) higher than Decker for THIS season and certainly higher than Decker going forward... Not to mention that if u are planning to get Gordon I believe now is the time to do it....
And good pt... I will now officially ignore Phenix as I too have wasted too much time with him
And good pt... I will now officially ignore Phenix as I too have wasted too much time with him
Phenix
Footballguy
Yup and some have Decker higher, including many respected people, one of them being Steve Holloway.
Also, what else can you do when your point is shot down? Yup ignore the dude. LOL
Funny some are allowed opinions, but not others. Weird.
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JustinHawkins
Footballguy
GoodLloydHaveMercy
Footballguy
Ugh... Why do I even respond? Maybe I'm bored? U could have still gotten plenty for Peterson last yr... In one of my leagues one guy traded a 1st and 2nd rd pick and gates for him... Still underpaid as it turns out...Comparing an RB with a serious knee injury and an undisputed starter in Chris Johnson with no health concerns is kinda dumb... You did make my pt for me though so thanks for that... Value is subjective and increases or decreases really quickly based on circumstance.
Phenix
Footballguy
No dispute there what so ever. I notice the majority of people who win have that player no one else wanted because they were old. Age is over rated, thats all, however my opinion is unpopular.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I agree with the bolded, but also find the "no way I lost the deal" kind of funny. Gordon had a real good (productive) rookie season and has very impressive measurables. Sure Manning is much much better than Weeden, but Decker will likely be the third option in the passing game while Gordon is likely to be the first option. Weeden's improvement (which isn't a given) and a Norv Turner offense could lead to a better season from Gordon. If I had to bet though I'd go with Decker having the better season.
I'm not a Ballard fan at all but willing to admit I could be wrong on that one and at this point there seems to be a better than average chance that he'll see the significant carries in Indy this season. I'm not sure they will spend a high draft pick on a RB.
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JPeso
Footballguy
Sorry to further rain on your parade but you lost the deal badly in my eyes. Gordon and Decker are wash at best although I'd much prefer Gordon and 1.5 >>> Ballard - this the view of not 3 years from now, but now, plus an exit, that enjoys being competitive every year.
Phenix
Footballguy
So Welker is gonna come in and take over the #2 role? Thats pretty bold considering he has never worked with Manning and Decker has, and worked more then well. I like Gordon, A lot, I see how that could be missed since I traded him.
Depth Charts dont see it that way....
http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/depthchart.php?type=noidp&lite=no&exclude_coaches=yes
http://www.rotoworld.com/teams/depth-charts/NFL.aspx
Now its not the official team depth chart, but some sure do see it as he is the #2 WR.
What has shown that Gordon is better then Decker, however? Not stats, just opinion and hope.
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Rolling_akg
Footballguy
Team a gives 2.02 (15th pick)
Team b gives Sidney rice
Team b gives Sidney rice
JPeso
Footballguy
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Aren't most trades made because it addresses team needs? I wish guys would stop using the 2013 Off Season Dynasty Trade Thread to assess trade value because a lot of those trades are "based on need at time of trade instead of actual value of the player."
Chris Johnson's value is inflated due to the dearth of RBs and the amount of players who stick to 00s dogma of having to have two RBs to win. ADP is an indication of market value. It is not a measure of expected points; it is a measure of what everyone else in the community is thinking. Just like this thread.
You should not be surprised when someone turns down your offer of Johnson for Nicks, but given his ADP you should be somewhat confident you can find someone else who will give you a similar WR or QB or enough picks to find one.
JPeso
Footballguy
I cringe every time I see ADP mentioned in this thread. The problem is though that many are not willing to make their own calls, instead relying on ADP to run their squads for them. I use to use ADP more my first few years and often times would draft to it to be able to trade to it later.
In 2009 I went in with the idea of one of my start-ups that I would draft to ADP to see what happened. It was the worst draft ever and I found post-draft that my leaguemates didn't care much for those players despite they were getting great ADP offers. Luckily the team came out OK in the end but it was not without discounting those players much more than I "should" have had to based on ADP. That is how I'd feel even if I drafted Ballard in the 8th-10th round despite his ADP of 6th round. Even in the 10th round there are 20 more guys I'd much rather build around, but you have to be willing to make your own call rather than to suggest "but, but, I got a great deal on Ballard cause ADP says so".
Worst part of this draft I speak of was that when I wasted my 4th, 5th, and 6th round picks for "value", I missed out on a number of pieces I knew would have more value - enter regret, but luckily the Book of Hov has taught me to live with those regrets. I just won't make the same mistake again.
JPeso
Footballguy
You can make offers based on ADP, and in the same, as you note above, expect a reject because the offer you sent was not fair based on ADP. It's the trade seeker or the owner that puts a piece like Ballard on the trade block that should not be concerned so much with ADP (in my eyes), once they have determined said player is overvalued.
JPeso
Footballguy
Feels about right as well. I'd probably rather the pick but can see both sides depending on need and if a Foster owner.
JPeso
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I think ADP is very valuable and should be used as context for any trade. Not the end-all, but context. If the large majority are drafting Chris Johson over those players, it is for a reason; because of how rare consistent production from the RB spot is becoming. If you don't have that need, of course you are going to greatly devalue CJ. Just as you will greatly devalue RG3 and Russell if they're not your starting QB. ADP is no more flawed than any other hypothetical context we apply to a trade.
I understand it is not for everyone, and that you can make your team better going against it; but it's solid context, in my opinion.
ETA: Or, in other words, what Thrifty said in less detail.
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Concept Coop
Footballguy
I'm pretty low on Britt right now, so this is close to me. But I'd take Wallace and Britt, too. After lowering Wallace's value after the trade, it's starting to rebound with the more thought I give it. The money is a very good sign, and I have read some nice things about Tannehill's arm. I'd still take Blackmon, but it's closer for me that it is to most, I think.
Britt, as much as I hate having him on my roster, is worth a good deal more than the 1.12.
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