*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)

[pantagrapher]

‏@thekapman Three MLB sources this afternoon tell me Lester likes Cubs and Chicago a lot but all 3 would be surprised if he didn't go back to Boston.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Still, just having played fantasy baseball...

Dumb analogy, I know. But the principle is the same.

Ummm, no.

Google "transaction cost" and report back with your findings. Go ahead and take your time, I'll wait. If you need any help with big words, feel free to shoot me a pm.

What if as some have stated that teams like the Cubs and Red Sox believe bats to be the new market inefficiency? The Red Sox could be rudderless or they could also just be trying to exploit the market. Why did the Cubs trade for La Stella when they seem to have too many MI options, same as why the Red Sox seem to be stacking up OFers. Teams can't get enough hitting these days and it would seem some teams are betting that others will overpay in prospects or pitching for hitters.

It's the same reason a young FA like Moncada may end up costing a team $80M. There is decreasing lack of power in the game and teams are trying to get it where they can.

Sure, that's possible. And quite clearly a good bat is more valuable during a pitching-dominant era (e.g. now), as opposed to how things were 10-15 years ago. At the same time, Allan Craig sucks just as much in 2014 as he would've in 2002 or 1950 or 1897. He's a guy who can wear a baseball jersey who can mimic baseball-like things, but I wouldn't consider his intersection of skill-set and salary an "asset."

Can a one-year rental of Cespedes fetch a better SP than Lester could have four months ago? If we assume that 0.5 years of Lester is = to 1.5 years of Cespedes, then 0.5 years of Lester is > to 1.0 years of Cespedes, which is what they're presumably going to try and trade now.

 

[the moops]

I think the thing with the Cespedes deal was that Cherington had no idea that Castillo would be available, and that Mookie Betts would perform as well as he did for the duration of the season. I think his plan was to keep Cespedes and hope to extend him during the offseason, for while he has his warts, slugging RH outfielders aren't exactly all that common. Good on him for changing course when the landscape changed

 

[Annyong]

‏@thekapman Three MLB sources this afternoon tell me Lester likes Cubs and Chicago a lot but all 3 would be surprised if he didn't go back to Boston.

14 year old is now saying Cubs have upped their offer.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I think the thing with the Cespedes deal was that Cherington had no idea that Castillo would be available, and that Mookie Betts would perform as well as he did for the duration of the season. I think his plan was to keep Cespedes and hope to extend him during the offseason, for while he has his warts, slugging RH outfielders aren't exactly all that common. Good on him for changing course when the landscape changed

So if you trade for a guy that's only going to help you in 2015, why then trade away a guy that's only going to help you in 2015 in Lackey?

 

[The Flying Elvis]

I think the thing with the Cespedes deal was that Cherington had no idea that Castillo would be available, and that Mookie Betts would perform as well as he did for the duration of the season. I think his plan was to keep Cespedes and hope to extend him during the offseason, for while he has his warts, slugging RH outfielders aren't exactly all that common. Good on him for changing course when the landscape changed

So if you trade for a guy that's only going to help you in 2015, why then trade away a guy that's only going to help you in 2015 in Lackey?

Moops seems to be saying that he thinks the original plan was to extend Cespedes so it wouldn't have been just for 2015. Tends to be easier to extend a player if he joins your team and likes playing there. We are also assuming that Lackey would have actually played for the Red Sox under his previous deal. What if Lackey told the Sox there was no way he was going to play for the minimum? Lackey seems like a guy who doesn't give a crap and could just retire if he didn't like the situation.

 

[shadyridr]

Gammons said sandoval was offered the same exact contract by the giants. Kind of strange he didnt resign.

 

[Hilts]

That scenario is possible, but Lackey made it very clear he's going to play for the Cardinals. Very possible he tried bluffing Boston or simply didn't want to play there, but I'm skeptical he would have changed course so quickly.

 

[Baloney Sandwich]

14 year old was on the Sports Hub tonight and sounded pretty sharp. I guess he is from St Louis and a Card's fan. Mike Felger, one of the hosts, thinks the kid's source inside the Red Sox organization is actually John Henry.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

That scenario is possible, but Lackey made it very clear he's going to play for the Cardinals. Very possible he tried bluffing Boston or simply didn't want to play there, but I'm skeptical he would have changed course so quickly.

He has a divorce. There is no way he was going to walk away from 10-15mm more after his 500k year.

 

[RnR]

May I interject? Allen Craig had a rough 2014 for a myriad of reasons and he's never been known for his glove work, but the guy is a very good hitter when he's right. He's being terribly undersold by GPJ.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

May I interject? Allen Craig had a rough 2014 for a myriad of reasons and he's never been known for his glove work, but the guy is a very good hitter when he's right. He's being terribly undersold by GPJ.

I agree with most of what GPJ is laying down in here, but I also think Craig will be fine in 2015. Actually hoping the Tigers can get him somehow if the Sux have an excess.

 

[RnR]

May I interject? Allen Craig had a rough 2014 for a myriad of reasons and he's never been known for his glove work, but the guy is a very good hitter when he's right. He's being terribly undersold by GPJ.

I agree with most of what GPJ is laying down in here, but I also think Craig will be fine in 2015. Actually hoping the Tigers can get him somehow if the Sux have an excess.

"He's a guy who can wear a baseball jersey who can mimic baseball-like things, but I wouldn't consider his intersection of skill-set and salary an "asset."

Seems like a silly thing to say about a guy that slashed 315/362/555, 307/354/522 & 315/373/457 over the previous three seasons. In fact, it makes me wonder how much he knows about the guy at all.

 

[Eephus]

I think the Red Sox' current model is interesting for the tactical short-term moves that they're making. The conventional wisdom has always been to construct teams that will contend for a period of time. But the Red Sox have been in a rapid cycle building up and breaking down. They were behind in July 2012 and 2014 so sell; contending in July 2013 so buy. It's kind of like what the Marlins have been doing for year but at a much quicker churn and payroll level. The jury is still out as to whether the talent they added last deadline makes them a better team on opening day. I think they were unfortunate that their acquisitions did nothing to improve their trade value after arriving in Boston. Their payroll is probably going to approach the luxury tax but it should be a one year thing...unless it isn't.

 

[Eephus]

Hyeon-jong Yang wait!

 

[the moops]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

May I interject? Allen Craig had a rough 2014 for a myriad of reasons and he's never been known for his glove work, but the guy is a very good hitter when he's right. He's being terribly undersold by GPJ.

I agree with most of what GPJ is laying down in here, but I also think Craig will be fine in 2015. Actually hoping the Tigers can get him somehow if the Sux have an excess.

"He's a guy who can wear a baseball jersey who can mimic baseball-like things, but I wouldn't consider his intersection of skill-set and salary an "asset."

Seems like a silly thing to say about a guy that slashed 315/362/555, 307/354/522 & 315/373/457 over the previous three seasons. In fact, it makes me wonder how much he knows about the guy at all.

That's a very creative use of the phrase "previous three seasons."

I don't think his 2013 and 2012 numbers are as relevant as what's being described here. There's not a 100% chance that it's irreversible, but Boston obviously couldn't fix him. Maybe Chili has some ideas?

 

[Eephus]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

 

[the moops]

Except that Kennedy kinda blows.

 

[dparker713]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

A true talent .500 team is just a couple of good months from being legit playoff contenders. The second wild card really lowers the bar for the playoffs. There's a large middle class of teams that have a shot every year now.

 

[RnR]

May I interject? Allen Craig had a rough 2014 for a myriad of reasons and he's never been known for his glove work, but the guy is a very good hitter when he's right. He's being terribly undersold by GPJ.

I agree with most of what GPJ is laying down in here, but I also think Craig will be fine in 2015. Actually hoping the Tigers can get him somehow if the Sux have an excess.

"He's a guy who can wear a baseball jersey who can mimic baseball-like things, but I wouldn't consider his intersection of skill-set and salary an "asset."

Seems like a silly thing to say about a guy that slashed 315/362/555, 307/354/522 & 315/373/457 over the previous three seasons. In fact, it makes me wonder how much he knows about the guy at all.

That's a very creative use of the phrase "previous three seasons."

I don't think his 2013 and 2012 numbers are as relevant as what's being described here. There's not a 100% chance that it's irreversible, but Boston obviously couldn't fix him. Maybe Chili has some ideas?

How so? I addressed 2014 as an utter failure in that thread of posts, later referencing the "previous three seasons". 2013, 2012, and 2011 were the previous three seasons to the 2014 season, no?

Anyhow, no reason to further argue semantics.

As for your link, it is a fair critique of his 2014 struggles. I was just saying that your dismissal of his value as a baseball asset is silly and over dramatic. Craig has been a quite valuable baseball commodity in the not-so-distant past. That's what the numbers say, and that's what my eyeballs saw.

Can he return to that form in 2015? We'll see.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

 

[RnR]

Just spit balling here, but perhaps they think the addition (and potential extension) of Cespedes increases their chances of landing fellow countryman Yasmany Tomas.

Could do worse for that lineup than pairing those two, that's for sure.

 

[Hilts]

Except that Kennedy kinda blows.

He was pretty good last season. I'm not sure pitching in Fenway will help any pitcher, but Ian could be a fine back of the rotation guy for a lot of teams.

 

[Eephus]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

 

[Balco]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

Yep. If Cashner could stay healthy, he and Ross are a solid 1-2. That offense is putrid. Cespedes would give them a much needed power bat.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

Yep. If Cashner could stay healthy, he and Ross are a solid 1-2. That offense is putrid. Cespedes would give them a much needed power bat.

For one year.

I don't know much about Preller, but I doubt he thinks that SD is realistically on the cusp of being a contender. Especially with two of the highest-spending teams in the division ahead of you.

 

[Eephus]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

Yep. If Cashner could stay healthy, he and Ross are a solid 1-2. That offense is putrid. Cespedes would give them a much needed power bat.

For one year.

I don't know much about Preller, but I doubt he thinks that SD is realistically on the cusp of being a contender. Especially with two of the highest-spending teams in the division ahead of you.

The Padres finished 12th in the league in attendance and that included a lot of Giants and Dodgers fans who come to see the visitors. They don't need to make the playoffs in 2015 but they have to appear more competitive to bring more bodies through the gates.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

Yep. If Cashner could stay healthy, he and Ross are a solid 1-2. That offense is putrid. Cespedes would give them a much needed power bat.

For one year.

I don't know much about Preller, but I doubt he thinks that SD is realistically on the cusp of being a contender. Especially with two of the highest-spending teams in the division ahead of you.

The Padres finished 12th in the league in attendance and that included a lot of Giants and Dodgers fans who come to see the visitors. They don't need to make the playoffs in 2015 but they have to appear more competitive to bring more bodies through the gates.

I think baseball fans are generally more sophisticated than that. Or at least they're more interested in a team's win/loss record than the perceived "excitement factor" of any given player.

If SD was interested in this trade, I would think that Boston would have pulled the trigger already.

 

[the moops]

@Buster_ESPN: Based on the conversations the Red Sox have had so far, evaluators believe they are going to get a good pitcher for Yoenis Cespedes.

 

[Balco]

Padres apparently interested in Cespedes. Talk of Kennedy. Sox more interested in Ross or Cashner (obviously)

Trading Kennedy for Cespedes doesn't do a rebuilding team like SD much good, much less a guy who they have more control over like Ross or Cashner.

The Padres won 77 games last year. They supposedly were involved in the Panda hunt up to the end. I don't think they're close to competing but maybe they do.

A swap for an potential FA like Kennedy would fill a gap for both teams.

Does SD have some dearth of solid starting pitching that I don't know about? Are we that sure about Luebke and Despaigne? They'd be filling one hole while opening up another, and, Kennedy is probably the better player overall.

He also can possibly net draft pick compensation, which Cespedes can't.

They felt comfortable enough to non-tender Eric Stults. When you're talking about an organization like the Padres, depth is relative but they have guys like Robbie Erlin and Casey Kelly who could take the ball every fifth day.

Their offense needs a lot of help. They were over 100 runs below NL average which is bad even in Petco; their park adjusted OPS was near the bottom. They need at least two impact bats in order to have a prayer of making up the 13 games they were out of the Wild Card this year. The Quentins, Alonsos and Gyorkos aren't going to get it done.

Yep. If Cashner could stay healthy, he and Ross are a solid 1-2. That offense is putrid. Cespedes would give them a much needed power bat.

For one year.

I don't know much about Preller, but I doubt he thinks that SD is realistically on the cusp of being a contender. Especially with two of the highest-spending teams in the division ahead of you.

It looks like San Diego made a big offer for Sandoval. I don't know if they would be out of running to re-sign Cespedes. I am not crazy about Ian Kennedy.

 

[RnR]

If I were the Padres, I'd be asking for a negotiation window before pulling the trigger on that trade. And if the pitcher they are offering is good enough, I'd be granting it if I were the Red Sox.

 

[Billy Bats]

Did anyone see Tomas signing with the D Backs? Haven't paid too close attention lately but that one surprises me. 6/68.5

 

[Eephus]

@Buster_ESPN: Based on the conversations the Red Sox have had so far, evaluators believe they are going to get a good pitcher for Yoenis Cespedes.

I don't believe it until verified by a 14 year old.

 

[Eephus]

Did anyone see Tomas signing with the D Backs? Haven't paid too close attention lately but that one surprises me. 6/68.5

Sheriff Joe Arpaio is on red alert

 

[Good Posting Judge]

He and Castillo should make sure Abreu gets at least a Christmas card and ideally some gift cards this December.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Li'l Rosenthal had a twitter post clarifying that he was NOT the one who broke the Tomas contract.

He also did this: http://instagram.com/p/v4RRqREOdH/

 

[bigmarc27]

Did anyone see Tomas signing with the D Backs? Haven't paid too close attention lately but that one surprises me. 6/68.5

I kept hearing the Braves were involved, but happy overall that we're not the winner of this sweepstakes.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

"Young Gammons" having a bit of a tough Thanksgiving eve:

@mlb_nl_al: BREAKING: Yoenis Cespedes traded to the Cincinatti Reds, not sure of rest of the details

Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al 54m54 minutes ago
UPDATE: Cespedes not a red. My source just told me this "Deal is close, ongoing, but I apologize, not quite accepted.Jumped the gun"

Jake Wesley MLB ‏@mlb_nl_al 54m54 minutes ago
I extremely apologize for my tweets regarding Yoenis. My source took this to far, and I trusted him . I am sorry. RT THIS

@mlb_nl_al: Again, extremely sorry. This was a Reds source. Clearly unreliable”

So, not only is this kid Tweeting out information he hears as "fact" without double-checking, but then throwing them under the bus when they're "wrong?" Sounds like he has a lot to learn about this business, even if he was right a couple of times.

 

[Annyong]

He and Castillo should make sure Abreu gets at least a Christmas card and ideally some gift cards this December.

Yeah no ####. Abreu is a legit hitter.

 

[Annyong]

Also, I doubt the Red Sox get anything more than a #3.5 starter for Cespedes.

Speaking of which, the White Sox should send Danks for him.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Li'l Gammons now "looking for a new Reds source."

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Li'l Gammons now "looking for a new Reds source."

oops

 

[RnR]

Time for mom and dad to shut down the Twitters.

 

[Hilts]

Mariners are reportedly determined to come away with one of Justin Upton, Nelson Cruz, Cespedes, Kemp, or Gattis.

 

[Balco]

Mariners are reportedly determined to come away with one of Justin Upton, Nelson Cruz, Cespedes, Kemp, or Gattis.

Chris Russo said on Mad Dog radio that he heard the Mariners would be willing to deal Iwakuma for Cespedes. I think they would be foolish to even think about that deal.

 

[the moops]

they seem to be of pretty equal value. Cespedes can't be offered a QO but Iwakuma makes more money.

 

[the moops]

Also, I doubt the Red Sox get anything more than a #3.5 starter for Cespedes.

Seem to be too many teams connected to his that they probably will do better than a 3.5

Have heard CIN in a deal for Latos. DET in a deal for Porcello. SEA in a deal for Iwakuma.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Also, I doubt the Red Sox get anything more than a #3.5 starter for Cespedes.

Seem to be too many teams connected to his that they probably will do better than a 3.5

Have heard CIN in a deal for Latos. DET in a deal for Porcello. SEA in a deal for Iwakuma.

From what I can tell, Latos was just postulated by Heyman with no real source, he just said it made sense. I'm sure the Sox are interested in Iwakuma and apparently the Mariners are pursuing a bat, but that doesn't mean they'd part with Iwakuma for Yoenis. Why not go after Cruz first?

I'm not believing anything until Li'L Scoop has it.