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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (2 Viewers)

All Cespedes net Oakland was two months of Lester. Sox shouldn't get much with him being even closer to free agency. Why would teams give up a player for one year of him when they could have kept that player and signed LaRoche for an extra year? Different players, different positions, yes, but whatever Cespedes gains in the field/against lefties is offset by their respective obp's.

 
Rosenthal says A's are up to something, but Samardjiza not involved.
I think that Beane is up to something.

Not Moss, either. They don't have much in the farm. Maybe moving Jaso? Can't imagine he'd net a lot, but he does need to be traded.

 
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I'd say so. Lawrie sucks
Yes. Yes he does. He's a ####### bandaid. But the rest of it was concerning. How long is Donaldson under contract for?
He's under team control through 2018.

Barreto could be extremely good, but he's several years away and guys that young often flame out. This trade isn't making a lot of sense for Oakland right now, but if Beane keeps making moves I'm sure things will start fitting together better.

 
I'd say so. Lawrie sucks
Yes. Yes he does. He's a ####### bandaid. But the rest of it was concerning. How long is Donaldson under contract for?
Four more years.

If you go by Steamer projections, Donaldson to Lawrie is a loss of about two wins in 2015. But with a lot of players hitting FA next year, this is a peculiar time for such a major revamp/stocking of the ML system. The A's already figure to do much better next year given that they were terribly unlucky in 2014, but this is a pretty hard one to figure, you have to assume this trade would still be here next year.

This one's going to go over like a kale fart at a funeral with the fanbase, and maybe well it should.

 
I'd say so. Lawrie sucks
Yes. Yes he does. He's a ####### bandaid. But the rest of it was concerning. How long is Donaldson under contract for?
He's under team control through 2018.

Barreto could be extremely good, but he's several years away and guys that young often flame out. This trade isn't making a lot of sense for Oakland right now, but if Beane keeps making moves I'm sure things will start fitting together better.
Guys who are worth 6-7 WAR and have four more years of team control left don't just fall off trees. And yeah, Barreto's extremely far off.

 
This one's going to go over like a kale fart at a funeral with the fanbase, and maybe well it should.
Yep. If they're rebuilding, why take Lawrie? He's under control one year less than Donaldson. If they're not rebuilding, why trade Donaldson? Don't care how great Barreto may be years down the road - it hurts their chances of winning next year.

There will surely be a lot more deals coming from Beane, but this is thoroughly baffling right now.

 
I'd say so. Lawrie sucks
Yes. Yes he does. He's a ####### bandaid. But the rest of it was concerning. How long is Donaldson under contract for?
He's under team control through 2018.

Barreto could be extremely good, but he's several years away and guys that young often flame out. This trade isn't making a lot of sense for Oakland right now, but if Beane keeps making moves I'm sure things will start fitting together better.
Guys who are worth 6-7 WAR and have four more years of team control left don't just fall off trees. And yeah, Barreto's extremely far off.
Jonah Keri just tweeted in his next "trade value column" he has Donaldson as 22nd most valuable in MLB. He's better than Lawrie's ceiling and Lawrie will actually be a free agent before Donaldson.

 
Explain to me why you give Butler 3/30 and trade Donaldson for a much lesser version and prospects in the same offseason.
I'm not going to explain the reasons behind this trade, because I doubt anyone could, but Donaldson is a third baseman, Lawrie plays second. Lesser player, sure. Lesser version isn't accurate.

 
Explain to me why you give Butler 3/30 and trade Donaldson for a much lesser version and prospects in the same offseason.
I'm not going to explain the reasons behind this trade, because I doubt anyone could, but Donaldson is a third baseman, Lawrie plays second. Lesser player, sure. Lesser version isn't accurate.
Lawrie has been a third basemen for all but a handful of innings in his major league career.

 
Explain to me why you give Butler 3/30 and trade Donaldson for a much lesser version and prospects in the same offseason.
I'm not going to explain the reasons behind this trade, because I doubt anyone could, but Donaldson is a third baseman, Lawrie plays second. Lesser player, sure. Lesser version isn't accurate.
Lawrie has been a third basemen for all but a handful of innings in his major league career.
:goodposting:

 
Explain to me why you give Butler 3/30 and trade Donaldson for a much lesser version and prospects in the same offseason.
I'm not going to explain the reasons behind this trade, because I doubt anyone could, but Donaldson is a third baseman, Lawrie plays second. Lesser player, sure. Lesser version isn't accurate.
Lawrie has been a third basemen for all but a handful of innings in his major league career.
Fair enough. I'm pretty sure Oakland will use him as their second baseman, but with this GM I have no idea.

 
@susanslusser: Beane says that Lawrie goes straight to 3B, emphasizes that he is only 23 years old. Both pitchers ML ready.

 
@susanslusser: Beane says that Lawrie goes straight to 3B, emphasizes that he is only 23 years old. Both pitchers ML ready.
Well...####.
Lawrie is an awesome defensive 3B (though I think Donaldson is too). Lawrie's absolute upside is likely a bit south of what Donaldson has done the past two seasons. I don't think the arms the A's get will be difference makers, it sounds like they love Barreto.

Also, not sure what Beane is talking about, Lawrie will be 25 in January.

 
Explain to me why you give Butler 3/30 and trade Donaldson for a much lesser version and prospects in the same offseason.
Firstly, let's at least note for the record that Beane has utterly devastated trade partners when he makes an established player for prospects move. Do people realize how fast Mark Mulder fell apart after he was traded to STL? He was worth 0.5 WAR over 53 starts over the next four years. Haren was worth 12.5 in three years with the A's, and then traded for a package that included Carlos Gonzalez (THAT trade was indefensible, where the A's trade for an established player. Gonzalez was simply rushed too quickly), Brett Anderson, who has been killed by injuries, and Chris Carter, who would probably be a pretty great DH if he were used properly (and not flipped for a mediocre SS in Lowrie, but again, I'm only defending the established player for prospects deals here). Rich Harden also broke down pretty quickly after the A's dealt him to Chicago, which was the trade that netted Harden (as well as a couple of guys who went nowhere).

Swisher was dealt for Gio, and immediately had a bad year with Chicago, although he bounced back with NYY. Billy Taylor absolutely fell apart after Oakland dealt him. Andrew Bailey? Dead. Ben Grieve? Dead. Look at Cespedes' slash line for last year. Look at what he did for Boston. Turrible.

So I'd keep that in mind. And I'd also keep in mind that while some of Beane's announcement to the press was bull#### (they're a lot closer than "11 games" to the Angels in terms of pythagorean standings this year), he did mention some worry about this current team "deteriorating." If you want to make the inference, he thinks Donaldson's deteriorating.

He's the #1, pound-for-pound, undisputed champion of baseball GM's in terms of getting the most out of what he has. It's almost impossible to conceive that there isn't some hidden angle here that he isn't playing.

 
I think the A's traded Donaldson at his peak here, but not sure they got back what they could have. But Beane and Dombrowski are oft criticized for their deals, and a good majority of them turn out to be good down the road. MAC_32 judges trades the minute they happen, the reality is that trades are judged over the course of contracts and years.

We as fans love to :hophead: because we have a rooting interest or a draw to the game because we love it. But even the people who I think know baseball best lose the big picture of trades and roster maneuvers, myself included. Beane has shown in the past he knows better than most of the other guys, and I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt here also.

 
MAC_32 said:
If you always rely on hindsight then you can't ever be wrong so there's that.
:confused:

I'd be a bit troubled if the A's didn't at least knock on some other doors before they pulled the trigger on this. I trust Beane's read, but did they at least check in on Arenado? Machado, which would've been extra-hilarious?

 
MAC_32 said:
If you always rely on hindsight then you can't ever be wrong so there's that.
:confused:

I'd be a bit troubled if the A's didn't at least knock on some other doors before they pulled the trigger on this. I trust Beane's read, but did they at least check in on Arenado? Machado, which would've been extra-hilarious?
comment directed at doc, I lean towards liking this trade for Oakland. Don't trust Lawrie, at all, but I think we have seen the best we are going to from Donaldson. Prospects push this to Oakland imho
 
Thinking about taking a year off just to track down every person who says "DOOD, BEANE HAS NEVER BEEN TO THE WORLD SERIES" and kicking them into a fire.

 
Hilts said:
MAC_32 said:
@susanslusser: Beane says that Lawrie goes

straight to 3B, emphasizes that he is only 23 years old. Both pitchers ML ready.
Well...####.
Probably the most shocking part of the deal, who would have ever thought Oakland would pencil in Lawrie to play the only position he has really ever played in the majors. That Billy Beane is one giant enigma.

 
Bautista, EE, and Donaldson back to back to back? Yeesh
The AL East is going to be such a tough division next year.
looks like a two team race tome
I think Baltimore and maybe New York can keep things interesting for a while.
Their MI is atrocious. Plus they're old pretty much everywhere. Unless they suddenly go on a spending spree, I see a team with a lot of holes.

 
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I'm in the super minority here but I like the A's side. What is often craved by fans are super prospects for established stars but I think after seeing the Tigers bag the Marlins for Miggy I like the thinking to get one major league guy with some good upside. Let's not forget Donaldson will most likely always hit around .250 and goes through large stretches of frustrating cold streaks. Lawrie may not be able to match his power numbers but if healthy can have similar production and is still a young player. To get a couple arms Beane considers ready to go as well puts it over the top. He knows what he's getting in Lawrie and that's not something you can say for every trade.

 
Hilts said:
MAC_32 said:
@susanslusser: Beane says that Lawrie goes

straight to 3B, emphasizes that he is only 23 years old. Both pitchers ML ready.
Well...####.
Probably the most shocking part of the deal, who would have ever thought Oakland would pencil in Lawrie to play the only position he has really ever played in the majors. That Billy Beane is one giant enigma.
:lmao:

Fair enough. Though I'll point out fangraphs also was speculating he was going to play second. The guy played the position last year. It's not a huge stretch.

 

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