*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)

[pantagrapher]

5 years $85 million for Martin. Shows the power of pitch framing. Understandable the Cubs got beat on that bidding war though.

 

[Balco]

Like that deal for the Cards. Wonder if the will stretch out Carlos Martinez now.

 

[Balco]

5 years $85 million for Martin. Shows the power of pitch framing. Understandable the Cubs got beat on that bidding war though.

Oof. That contract is going to look horrid sooner rather than later.

 

[shadyridr]

Russ Martin to Toronto for "McCann money"? Peter Gammons tweeted.

Link to more

Brian McCann isnt even worth Brian McCann money

 

[shadyridr]

5 years $85 million for Martin. Shows the power of pitch framing. Understandable the Cubs got beat on that bidding war though.

Oof. That contract is going to look horrid sooner rather than later.

By sooner you mean like now?

 

[whoknew]

Shelby Miller and stuff for Jason Heyward and stuff.

St. Louis Cardinals

✔ @Cardinals
FollowSt. Louis Cardinals trade RHP Shelby Miller & RHP Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for OF Jason Heyward & RHP Jordan Walden.

Isn't Jenkins one of Cards top prospects?

 

[pantagrapher]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

 

[MAC_32]

5 years $85 million for Martin. Shows the power of pitch framing. Understandable the Cubs got beat on that bidding war though.

 

[MAC_32]

Shelby Miller and stuff for Jason Heyward and stuff.

St. Louis Cardinals

✔ @Cardinals
FollowSt. Louis Cardinals trade RHP Shelby Miller & RHP Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for OF Jason Heyward & RHP Jordan Walden.

Isn't Jenkins one of Cards top prospects?

There are some things in this game I don't question and the Cardinals evaluation of pitching is one of them. If they're moving Miller and Jenkins that tells me they know something I don't. Although I'm not that crazy about Miller, so there's that.

Walden's interesting though. I think Rosenthal's leash just got real short.

 

[RnR]

FWIW -- Rosenthal would prefer to be a starter. While Martinez is likely the guy that gets a crack at it, it is something to keep in mind.

 

[Eephus]

Shelby Miller and stuff for Jason Heyward and stuff.

St. Louis Cardinals

✔ @Cardinals
FollowSt. Louis Cardinals trade RHP Shelby Miller & RHP Tyrell Jenkins to the Braves for OF Jason Heyward & RHP Jordan Walden.

Isn't Jenkins one of Cards top prospects?

He's had injury problems and hasn't advanced very far up the ladder yet. I think he's a lottery ticket at this point.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

Not really a fan of Miller at all. Put me in the camp that thinks an issue with his arm/shoulder will pop up sooner rather than later.

 

[bigmarc27]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

 

[RnR]

Not really a fan of Miller at all. Put me in the camp that thinks an issue with his arm/shoulder will pop up sooner rather than later.

Why would you say that?

 

[pantagrapher]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

Exactly. But since framing should not have any influence over whether a pitch is a strike or a ball, is there a way to teach umps to nullify this effect?

Toronto's Martin contract loudly proclaims: we will pay this guy a lot of money because he's good at influencing the strike zone. I'd guess MLB's official stance on the matter would be that pitch framing should have no effect.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

Braves gave up a potential first round pick, too. It's not like good players fly the coop and you're left empty-handed anymore.

 

[Eephus]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

Braves gave up a potential first round pick, too. It's not like good players fly the coop and you're left empty-handed anymore.

There was draft pick compensation under the previous CBA too. The biggest difference now is that trades during the season nullify the compensation. So potential FAs like Heyward have more value now than they will at the deadline.

I am surprised that the deal happened so early in the off-season. The package going to Atlanta isn't overwhelming by any means. I'm sure the Braves made a lot of calls but I wonder why they pulled the trigger now instead of waiting until they y'know hire a General Manager and stuff

 

[bigmarc27]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

Braves gave up a potential first round pick, too. It's not like good players fly the coop and you're left empty-handed anymore.

Sure but we'll pick one up for Santana this year - those things come and go. I'm excited for the prospect of a rebuild in Atlanta, it's better than trying to patch the wound with a band aid year after year.

 

[Eephus]

I guess it makes sense for the Braves to recalibrate their window around their 2017 move to Cobb Country. But that's really good news for the Nationals.

 

[Wrigley]

Well the cards did just lose an outfielder.

 

[dparker713]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

Exactly. But since framing should not have any influence over whether a pitch is a strike or a ball, is there a way to teach umps to nullify this effect?

Toronto's Martin contract loudly proclaims: we will pay this guy a lot of money because he's good at influencing the strike zone. I'd guess MLB's official stance on the matter would be that pitch framing should have no effect.

Saw a study on pitch framing that basically said the gap between the best and worst framers is already closing. The ceiling of value added has stayed about the same, but the floor has significantly risen.

 

[Bob Sacamano]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

You've watched AJ Pierzynski play, right?

 

[dparker713]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

Braves gave up a potential first round pick, too. It's not like good players fly the coop and you're left empty-handed anymore.

There was draft pick compensation under the previous CBA too. The biggest difference now is that trades during the season nullify the compensation. So potential FAs like Heyward have more value now than they will at the deadline.

I am surprised that the deal happened so early in the off-season. The package going to Atlanta isn't overwhelming by any means. I'm sure the Braves made a lot of calls but I wonder why they pulled the trigger now instead of waiting until they y'know hire a General Manager and stuff

Not too long ago Shelby Miller was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. He's since posted a 2 WAR season with stretches of dominance. He's still got 1 pre arb season left and 3 arb seasons. That's a pretty whelming asset to get for a 1 year rental.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

If Jason Heyward is afraid of ghosts, this might not work out.

 

[Eephus]

Miller finished off the year strong. I guess it's a good deal for ATL if they really don't see any chance of re-signing Heyward? He's pretty awesome with the glove.

Heyward has been adamant that he's testing free agency. We tried to sign him last year in the flurry of deals with Freeman, Simmons, Teheran, and Kimbrel and it just didn't happen. I think him being a Brave opening day 2016 was a 1% chance, so I guess the deal is fine.

I was hoping for a bigger return, but you can only get what's offered.

Braves gave up a potential first round pick, too. It's not like good players fly the coop and you're left empty-handed anymore.

There was draft pick compensation under the previous CBA too. The biggest difference now is that trades during the season nullify the compensation. So potential FAs like Heyward have more value now than they will at the deadline.

I am surprised that the deal happened so early in the off-season. The package going to Atlanta isn't overwhelming by any means. I'm sure the Braves made a lot of calls but I wonder why they pulled the trigger now instead of waiting until they y'know hire a General Manager and stuff

Not too long ago Shelby Miller was a top 5 prospect in all of baseball. He's since posted a 2 WAR season with stretches of dominance. He's still got 1 pre arb season left and 3 arb seasons. That's a pretty whelming asset to get for a 1 year rental.

Whelming still isn't overwhelming. I don't know what was wrong with Miller last year but his declining SO/9 and increasing BB/9 rates are concerning.

Jesus Montero was a top 5 prospect too

 

[pantagrapher]

Some wonkish stuff on pitch framing from March 2013.

Prescient statement in that article:

Teams with analytically minded front offices are already making seven-figure decisions based on numbers like these.

 

[Brady Marino]

Not really a fan of Miller at all. Put me in the camp that thinks an issue with his arm/shoulder will pop up sooner rather than later.

Why would you say that?

A big, hard-throwing Texan barely struck out more batters per 9 innings than Jeremy Guthrie last season. Big red flag. May just be a mechanical wonk, but it's still concerning to me.

 

[RnR]

Not really a fan of Miller at all. Put me in the camp that thinks an issue with his arm/shoulder will pop up sooner rather than later.

Why would you say that?

A big, hard-throwing Texan barely struck out more batters per 9 innings than Jeremy Guthrie last season. Big red flag. May just be a mechanical wonk, but it's still concerning to me.

Now imagine he's a big, hard-throwing New Hampershirite. #Carp

 

[guru_007]

5 years $85 million for Martin. Shows the power of pitch framing. Understandable the Cubs got beat on that bidding war though.

I think too much is being placed on the pitch framing.

Now, I'm not of the opinion that signing a 31-32 year old catcher to a 5 year/82 million dollar deal is necessarily a good idea...but Martin's 2014 season was a top 10 OFFENSIVE WAR season in the NL. His 4.2 oWAR is on par with Brian McCann's best years back when he was in his early 20's.

And Martin has had shown a pretty good propensity to get on base for most of his career (yes, his Yankee days were pretty terrible).

He's been quite a bit better than average offensive catcher for all his career really.

Now, you add in the fact he is much better than average defensively - the only active catcher ahead of him in dWAR is Yadi Molina, and well, someone is going to give him a big contract to get him in there.

I think the length is a bit too long, but the yearly average salary is probably what his performance should command.

If I were a Cub fan, I would be pleased they didn't win this bid. But, there is a dearth of legitimate full-time catchers that are good offensively and defensively (usually you either get one or the other). He is getting paid more than Yadier Molina which just goes to show what a shrewd move that the Cards made in locking up a younger, better catcher.

 

[guru_007]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

 

[Eephus]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

I hate Jeffrey Loria more than I hate the deal so it's a net positive.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

Maybe they're actually going to start spending again? Obviously a deal like this depends on a team's long-term plans, and we don't really know what those are with Miami.

 

[Eephus]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

Maybe they're actually going to start spending again? Obviously a deal like this depends on a team's long-term plans, and we don't really know what those are with Miami.

The Marlins have had several bursts of spending dating back to the Huizenga regime. Whenever their window approached, they'd ramp up payroll, take their shot and then liquidate assets win or lose. Maybe that's their current thinking. They do have a bunch of young players who will be arbitration eligible in the next couple of years so some payroll inflation is going to happen regardless. We'll see if they add another bat this offseason.

I don't see the Marlins as particularly close to contention right now. They had the same record as the Padres last year. But if Fernandez comes back strong and Heaney is decent, their rotation might not suck.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

Maybe they're actually going to start spending again? Obviously a deal like this depends on a team's long-term plans, and we don't really know what those are with Miami.

The Marlins have had several bursts of spending dating back to the Huizenga regime. Whenever their window approached, they'd ramp up payroll, take their shot and then liquidate assets win or lose. Maybe that's their current thinking. They do have a bunch of young players who will be arbitration eligible in the next couple of years so some payroll inflation is going to happen regardless. We'll see if they add another bat this offseason.

I don't see the Marlins as particularly close to contention right now. They had the same record as the Padres last year. But if Fernandez comes back strong and Heaney is decent, their rotation might not suck.

Loria is not just an art dealer, he's also a performance artist.

Maybe they're going to get serious now? Who knows. Obviously you can't just pay one really good player, skimp everywhere else, and expect to get anywhere. Not continuing to ramp up payroll is just silly, otherwise you figure they'd just deal Stanton.

 

[pantagrapher]

Looks like Cubs are certain Lester will return to Red Sox.

 

[the moops]

Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick

Hearing Pablo Sandoval has discussed deals in the 5-year, $80-90 million range with#sfgiants and #redsox.

 

[Eephus]

Jerry Crasnick @jcrasnick

Hearing Pablo Sandoval has discussed deals in the 5-year, $80-90 million range with#sfgiants and #redsox.

My link

 

[the moops]

You wouldn't want SF to sign him to that deal?

 

[Eephus]

You wouldn't want SF to sign him to that deal?

I love the guy and it's not my money but I worry about the Giants being log-jammed at 1B in a few years. Sabean obviously values continuity more than I do. It's hard to argue with the success it's brought.

 

[Kraft...]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

With the exception of Pierzynski, he's brutal back there

 

[Kraft...]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

You've watched AJ Pierzynski play, right?

 

[Kraft...]

I really hate that Stanton deal for the Marlins.

Unless they hit with a high percent of their prospects, I have a hard time seeing them building a contending team there this year, next year, or really anytime.

They've handcuffed themselves with a huge percentage of their payroll to one player. They play to empty crowds, and that's not real likely to change. Where are they going to get additional money to attract free agents?

And sure, he can opt out - but wtf is going to trade for a guy with such a gaudy contract? How many teams that are playoff bound can fit that contract on their payroll? And has any team not learned from past massive contracts that didn't work out???

And not for nothing, but this guy is one year removed from a .249, 24 homer, 62 rbi, 62 run campaign.

Tons of risk and I just don't see all that much upside.

I know the Marlins need to sign this guy if they want to seem serious about winning, but now that they have, who else can they afford to sign/keep? Assuming Fernandez comes back healthy, is there any chance they can sign him to a long term deal with the STanton anchor they currently have?

Maybe they're actually going to start spending again? Obviously a deal like this depends on a team's long-term plans, and we don't really know what those are with Miami.

I heard the deal is back loaded so they can get some talent in before the opt out year

 

[pantagrapher]

I'm thinking about pitch framing now. It's clearly a valuable asset. It has proven results. But my worry would be what's going to happen when MLB goes to the umps and says "we're getting a inconsistent result here based on catcher behavior; we need to be mindful of this." The Martin contract really lets the cat out of the bag on this issue.

I remember early last season fangraphs had a breakdown on how Cubs pitchers were getting the smallest strike zone in the league. They clearly wanted to address this.

Every catcher tries to frame, some are better at it than others.

With the exception of Pierzynski, he's brutal back there

Article I linked earlier had Ryan Doumit as the worst ever, with Jason Kendall and Jorge Posada right on his heels.

 

[Annyong]

White Sox make a splash and give $15 mildo to Zach Duke

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Good for Zach.

 

[Annyong]

Billy Butler to Oakland 3/30

 

[shadyridr]

A fat, slow declining dh with no power is worth 30mil? Wow

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Billy Butler to Oakland 3/30

What the ####?