*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)

[dparker713]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

 

[Eephus]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

He got that last year coming off a steroids suspension. I'd say his agent hangs up if you are offering less than 3 years at an AAV of $12-14M

 

[Hilts]

Pat Gillick, Phils interim President on Amaro: "He's put a for sale sign out on everyone."

He was selling folks at the ASB, but was too delusional to recognize their market value was lower than he hoped. What's changed?

 

[Fly]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

No, right now one win above replacement is valued at about $6M-$7M. Ortiz has been between 2-4 WAR the past four years and on average has been worth ~$15M/yr.

 

[shadyridr]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

 

[Bojang0301]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

I just put up stats for 5/6 DH's in the 36-40 y/o category and I would say definitely. Paul Molitor and Edgar Martinez beasted up to 40 and Ortiz is doing the same.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Hard to say it was hanging up his catcher gear, because he barely caught in 2013 either. I dunno.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Boras said that Zito was "the hen that laid the eggs" in re: Cain, Lincecum, and that he's pitching in 2015.

 

[shadyridr]

Wtf corey kluber bested felix and sale for the cy young?

 

[dparker713]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

He got that last year coming off a steroids suspension. I'd say his agent hangs up if you are offering less than 3 years at an AAV of $12-14M

I'm not saying he'd sign for that. I'm saying that's more about what his actual value would be.

 

[shadyridr]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

 

[dparker713]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

No, right now one win above replacement is valued at about $6M-$7M. Ortiz has been between 2-4 WAR the past four years and on average has been worth ~$15M/yr.

I was valuing an above average DH, not Ortiz who has been significantly better than that.

 

[Eephus]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

He got that last year coming off a steroids suspension. I'd say his agent hangs up if you are offering less than 3 years at an AAV of $12-14M

I'm not saying he'd sign for that. I'm saying that's more about what his actual value would be.

His actual value is determined by what the most optimistic GM is prepared to offer him.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

Sometimes baseball players figure things out and take a leap late in their careers. It happens to pitchers, too.

 

[shadyridr]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

Sometimes baseball players figure things out and take a leap late in their careers. It happens to pitchers, too.

sorry i thought you were making a subtle PED joke with the vein reference

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

Sometimes baseball players figure things out and take a leap late in their careers. It happens to pitchers, too.

OPS by season:

2009 .861

2010 .844

2011 .850

2012 INJURED

2013 .785 but .913 in the 2nd half

2014 .974

He's had eight seasons where he has had at least 590 plate appearances, .850 has been his lowest OPS in those years. Numbers of 23/100/.310/.380/.480 is what I'd predict over the next few years if he's healthy. He's as professional a hitter as anyone and he reminds me of Edgar Martinez who had some really good years beyond 35. Repeating his 2014 will not be something I expect though .

 

[shadyridr]

^so not a good keeper in a keep 5 league?

 

[RnR]

Have we fully dissected the Cervelli trade to Pittsburgh? Life after Russell Martin...

 

[Hilts]

Wtf corey kluber bested felix and sale for the cy young?

Not understanding the outrage. It's a fine choice.

 

[shadyridr]

Wtf corey kluber bested felix and sale for the cy young?

Not understanding the outrage. It's a fine choice.

who said i was outraged?

 

[Hilts]

Wtf corey kluber bested felix and sale for the cy young?

Not understanding the outrage. It's a fine choice.

who said i was outraged?

Fair enough. Perhaps I mistook your 'wtf'.

 

[shadyridr]

Wtf corey kluber bested felix and sale for the cy young?

Not understanding the outrage. It's a fine choice.

who said i was outraged?

Fair enough. Perhaps I mistook your 'wtf'.

yeah more surprised. For some reason i thought it was between the other two only

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

Sometimes baseball players figure things out and take a leap late in their careers. It happens to pitchers, too.

OPS by season:

2009 .861

2010 .844

2011 .850

2012 INJURED

2013 .785 but .913 in the 2nd half

2014 .974

He's had eight seasons where he has had at least 590 plate appearances, .850 has been his lowest OPS in those years. Numbers of 23/100/.310/.380/.480 is what I'd predict over the next few years if he's healthy. He's as professional a hitter as anyone and he reminds me of Edgar Martinez who had some really good years beyond 35. Repeating his 2014 will not be something I expect though .

He's been a tremendous hitter for years now, by "leap" I mean his power specifically.

 

[dparker713]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

He got that last year coming off a steroids suspension. I'd say his agent hangs up if you are offering less than 3 years at an AAV of $12-14M

I'm not saying he'd sign for that. I'm saying that's more about what his actual value would be.

His actual value is determined by what the most optimistic GM is prepared to offer him.

That would be his market value, not the value he provides to the team that signs him.

 

[Northern Voice]

BlueJays announce the trade of Anthony Gose to the Tigers for 2B Devon Travis, who played in AA in 2014.

#Pompey2015

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Jesus Gose sucks.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Vmart signed with DET for 4 yrs/ 68 mil

Fantasy related, is he a good keeper next year? We keep 5

The plate discipline's always been there, it was his power that returned this year. No telling if it's a blip or he did something and tapped into a vein of ISO that was previously unmined.

yeah he had a HuGH year

Sometimes baseball players figure things out and take a leap late in their careers. It happens to pitchers, too.

OPS by season:

2009 .861

2010 .844

2011 .850

2012 INJURED

2013 .785 but .913 in the 2nd half

2014 .974

He's had eight seasons where he has had at least 590 plate appearances, .850 has been his lowest OPS in those years. Numbers of 23/100/.310/.380/.480 is what I'd predict over the next few years if he's healthy. He's as professional a hitter as anyone and he reminds me of Edgar Martinez who had some really good years beyond 35. Repeating his 2014 will not be something I expect though .

He's been a tremendous hitter for years now, by "leap" I mean his power specifically.

In theory in today's game it is possible pitchers are getting a little lazy, and there just aren't too many hitters that are locked in like VMART. I can see him sending 25 or so into the seats next year, but 32 is a whole lot for what I've always thought of as a doubles hitter. His swing is a gap magnet and he one-hops a lot of balls off the wall. I'd like to see a spray chart of his homers this year, I remember him pulling the ball much more than he has in the past.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Jesus Gose sucks.

He's not likely going to win any silver slugger awards during his career.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Jesus Gose sucks.

He's not likely going to win any silver slugger awards during his career.

Defense is awesome, but Travis seems pretty solid. Even if he's blocked, it seems like they should've gotten more.

 

[Northern Voice]

Jesus Gose sucks.

He's not likely going to win any silver slugger awards during his career.

He's so extremely, ridiculously good defensively and that speed. You keep thinking if he can hit just a little...

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Jesus Gose sucks.

He's not likely going to win any silver slugger awards during his career.

Defense is awesome, but Travis seems pretty solid. Even if he's blocked, it seems like they should've gotten more.

Dombrowski is rarely wrong on these prospects, that's the only thing that gives me some comfort. Should have gotten more though, yeah. I think what they are doing is trying to be more like KC with defense and speed, but they probably could have gotten Gose for a Hernan Perez. Then again, maybe Dombrowsi prefers Perez, who knows. Travis has been a solid minor league hitter, pretty consistent.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Well at the very least, Devon Travis is trending on Twitter right now.

 

[Eephus]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

He got that last year coming off a steroids suspension. I'd say his agent hangs up if you are offering less than 3 years at an AAV of $12-14M

I'm not saying he'd sign for that. I'm saying that's more about what his actual value would be.

His actual value is determined by what the most optimistic GM is prepared to offer him.

That would be his market value, not the value he provides to the team that signs him.

Guys who can slug .500 have value even if that's the only thing that they do really well. He's averaged 2 3/4 offensive wins over the past six years through suspension and multiple injuries. His game has some huge holes but the DH minimizes a bunch of them. He'll get paid a lot more than $7-8M over the next few years.

 

[RnR]

Jeff Francoeur inks a minor league deal with the Phillies, which seems like an awesome fit to me.

Eephus keeps trying to bury this guy, and he just keeps coming back.

 

[Eephus]

Jeff Francoeur inks a minor league deal with the Phillies, which seems like an awesome fit to me.

Eephus keeps trying to bury this guy, and he just keeps coming back.

The Phillies need to sign a deaf guy to a minor league deal.

They also signed AAAA guy Russ Canzler who could be a good platoon partner for Ruf or Howard but will probably just be organizational depth.

 

[Fly]

Am I crazy for thinking Cruz can be a Big Papi type DH for the next 5 years? Sluggers in this day and age are few and far between. He may be worth a 5 year deal.

Last year he had 3 great months and 3 average months at the plate. He's completely inept in the field and it seems entirely insane to give the guy 5 years based on 3 months of production at his age.

I see no reason why Cruz can't be an above average DH for 3-4 years. But Ortiz has performed at a completely different level since he arrived in Boston.

That's worth what, 7-8M per?

No, right now one win above replacement is valued at about $6M-$7M. Ortiz has been between 2-4 WAR the past four years and on average has been worth ~$15M/yr.

I was valuing an above average DH, not Ortiz who has been significantly better than that.

The average DH who has qualified with minimum PA over the past two years has posted ~2 WAR. An average DH is worth somewhere in the $12M/yr range. It's not crazy to think he could be worth $15M in '15 and '16.

 

[Eephus]

One of the biggest problems with WAR as a metric is the nebulous definition of replacement level. Fangraphs and B-R make different adjustments for DHs (-17.5 vs -15 runs). I don't think that baseline matters for comparative purposes but I think it has to be considered when building a real roster.

DH is the at the edge of the defensive spectrum; the only job requirement is to hit the ball. But a dedicated DH takes up a roster spot and a chunk of payroll which limits a team's flexibility to deal with platoon splits, minor injuries, give a catcher or veteran a half day off, etc.

Maybe it's because I primarily follow the NL but I'd be wary about devoting 10% of team payroll for a guy who can't play the field.

 

[Chemical X]

you know, i wish The NL would adopt The DH already. vmart gives AL teams such an advantage. but, then The WS comes and he cant play. this seems ridiculous.

 

[Billy Bats]

@rosenthal: Sources: Stanton, #Marlins discussing $300M deal.

5:19pm - 13 Nov 14

 

[Eephus]

you know, i wish The NL would adopt The DH already. vmart gives AL teams such an advantage. but, then The WS comes and he cant play. this seems ridiculous.

 

[Billy Bats]

Pat Gillick, Phils interim President on Amaro: "He's put a for sale sign out on everyone."

He was selling folks at the ASB, but was too delusional to recognize their market value was lower than he hoped. What's changed?

He now has Gillick to oversee his trades. But my post was more in surprise that he would come out and openly admit that about his GM and team.

 

[Annyong]

@rosenthal: Sources: Stanton, #Marlins discussing $300M deal.

5:19pm - 13 Nov 14

I cannot believe for a second that Stanton wants to stay in Miami.

 

[Chemical X]

take teh money then force a trade seems like teh play here.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

you know, i wish The NL would adopt The DH already. vmart gives AL teams such an advantage. but, then The WS comes and he cant play. this seems ridiculous.

It will happen eventually whether or not it is the best for the purity of the game. There is no way the player's union would allow the AL to eliminate the DL as it would eliminate jobs. Eventually both leagues with choose to play with the same rules and it will be with a DH.

 

[Chemical X]

what is The equivalent of teh nfl if they had different rules? extra down? 12 players? no PAT? a league having seperate rules is just stupid, but it doesnt get much play.....

 

[dparker713]

you know, i wish The NL would adopt The DH already. vmart gives AL teams such an advantage. but, then The WS comes and he cant play. this seems ridiculous.

It will happen eventually whether or not it is the best for the purity of the game. There is no way the player's union would allow the AL to eliminate the DL as it would eliminate jobs. Eventually both leagues with choose to play with the same rules and it will be with a DH.

Eliminating the DH doesn't eliminate jobs. Still 25 men per team.

There is zero reason to change the rules for either league. Its not like the fans of NL teams are clamoring for a DH.

 

[The Flying Elvis]

you know, i wish The NL would adopt The DH already. vmart gives AL teams such an advantage. but, then The WS comes and he cant play. this seems ridiculous.

It will happen eventually whether or not it is the best for the purity of the game. There is no way the player's union would allow the AL to eliminate the DL as it would eliminate jobs. Eventually both leagues with choose to play with the same rules and it will be with a DH.

Eliminating the DH doesn't eliminate jobs. Still 25 men per team.

There is zero reason to change the rules for either league. Its not like the fans of NL teams are clamoring for a DH.

It may not technically eliminate jobs but it eliminates the livelihood of players who are primarily DHs. Additionally those players tend to make quite a bit more than an extra utility man off the bench. That is good for the players union. They want players making $15M a year and DHs help that.

You have guys like V-Mart, Ortiz, Cruz to an extent who rely on the DH. I am not saying that it is going to happen soon but I think eventually it will happen and if/when it does it will be to add a DH to the NL not subtract one from the AL.

 

[Bojang0301]

I'm not a purist that hates the DH. I respect the NL and think no DH forces their managers to be more creative with their lineups and have a more comprehensive understanding of their bullpen that gives them an advantage over AL managers in the WS. Or maybe I just think that because they played ol Jimmy Leyland like a harp.

 

[shadyridr]

@rosenthal: Sources: Stanton, #Marlins discussing $300M deal.

5:19pm - 13 Nov 14

I cannot believe for a second that Stanton wants to stay in Miami.

for 300 mil id play in north korea