*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (2 Viewers)

[Notorious T.R.E.]

DECEMBER 17, 1:22pm: The Dodgers have heard nothing to indicate that the deal is in jeopardy, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Here's a recap on the Myers deal that just got updated on mlbtraderumors too. No Wisler or Hedges according to this...

Reports emerged yesterday that the Padres and Rays were discussing a deal that would send outfielder Wil Myers to San Diego. Subsequent reports greatly expanded the possibilities of that deal, including multi-team concepts, different packages from San Diego, and spin-off deals. If you would like to catch up on the earlier rumors, follow the page break link.

Various reports have indicated that a deal is close but that multiple different permutations are still in play. Here’s the latest, from this morning on:

• Another element of the deal being discussed is a swap of catchers Ryan Hanigan and Rene Rivera, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweets.

Earlier Updates

• The primary deal under contemplation includes 19-year-old first baseman Jake Bauers, right-handed pitching prospect Joe Ross, the fellow young righty Burch Smith, and two other players from San Diego’s side, Jim Bowden of ESPN.com tweets. A draft comp pick may also be involved in the swap, but prospects Matt Wisler and Austin Hedges are not believed to be, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets.
• Joel Sherman of the New York Post indicates in a tweet that the Nationals and Rays have an agreement in place involving outfielder Steven Souza in the event that the primary deal is consummated. He says that Tampa “will spin players” to D.C. if the Myers trade goes down. Earlier reports from Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter) and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (on Twitter) connected the teams on that player, after Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports tweeted that the Nats had become involved.
• Ben Zobrist is not expected to be part of the potential deal between the Nationals and Rays, Sherman tweets. Indeed, neither Zobrist nor Evan Longoria are involved in any of the scenarios under consideration, Topkin tweets.

 

[tommyGunZ]

DECEMBER 17, 1:22pm: The Dodgers have heard nothing to indicate that the deal is in jeopardy, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets.

Yeah, I think this deal happens. It's too important for the Padre franchise for this to blow up unless there truly is some unforeseen issue.

 

[Notorious T.R.E.]

Romo back to Giants for 2/15

 

[RnR]

Sabean is alive.

 

[the moops]

I'd guess 3.5-4 WAR for Kemp next year, assuming he's healthy.

He played in 150 games last year and put up 1.8 WAR. His defense is atrocious these days by just about any measurement.

He has only put up two seasons (2009 and 2011) in his career that were greater than 3.5 WAR.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Kemp failing his physical would be an enormous win for Preller.

Nope. You guys are putting far too much weight into defensive metrics. The idea that the Padres would be better off w/o a bat like Kemp (17 Hrs in the 2nd half of 2014) while holding on to their backup catcher who has already torn his ACL once is beyond silly.

It's peculiar that you mention grandal's injury, yet dont mention kemp's dozens of injuries. Even as he may or may not have failed a physical. Too busy cherry picking stats, i guess.

How many wars do you think he'll be worth next year?

Are any of Kemp's injuries as serious as a catcher tearing an ACL?

Kemp certainly carries risk. Some of that risk is mitigated by the contract (5/$75M is a bargain for a bat of Kemp's caliber).

I'd guess 3.5-4 WAR for Kemp next year, assuming he's healthy. Bat should grade out around there, and I think he'll likely be anywhere from replacement level in LF to -1.0 defensively.

I'm not nearly as sold on defensive metrics as I am offensive metrics. And that's not due to Kemp; I just think that we have a way to go before those metrics accurately reflect true defensive value.

Up to $100 on o/u 3.5 WAR next year? You can choose either fangraphs or BR now, either is fine with me.

 

[RnR]

Won't make him a superhero by any means, but a permanent move to a corner OF spot should help Kemp's defensive metrics.

 

[tommyGunZ]

I'd guess 3.5-4 WAR for Kemp next year, assuming he's healthy.

He played in 150 games last year and put up 1.8 WAR. His defense is atrocious these days by just about any measurement.

He has only put up two seasons (2009 and 2011) in his career that were greater than 3.5 WAR.

Right. His WAR is extremely low due mostly to either injury or his poor defense in CF.

He's fully healthy now, and he's now strictly a LF, so I expect his defensive metrics to improve. And if they don't, he'll still likely be putting up 3-4 oWAR, which IMO is a far more accurate measure of his offensive value than the negative dWAR is of his defensive value. Not to mention that the Padres need offense far more than defensive right now.

 

[HellToupee]

So when do the flood gates open on Cuba?

When do the cuban stripper floodgates open?

The Donkey shows will be

 

[the moops]

umm. Matt Kemp only started 34 games in CF last year

 

[Premier]

Deal is done.

Enjoy Jeff Franceo....errr, Wil Myers gunz.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I am a bit gay for Souza.

 

[RnR]

I am a bit gay for Souza.

Dave Cameron, Steven Souza and Good Posting Judge enter teh steemer together...

 

[Premier]

I am a bit gay for Souza.

Rays fans seem pleased.

 

[RnR]

Edinson Volquez gets 2/20 from Royals.

 

[the moops]

Deal is done.

Enjoy Jeff Franceo....errr, Wil Myers gunz.

how quickly we turn...

 

[Captain Hook]

from ESPN

The San Diego Padres have agreed to a three-way trade, pending physicals, that would land them Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers, a source confirmed to ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.

[+] EnlargeAl Bello/Getty ImagesWil Myers played in only 87 games in 2014, a season after winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

In the deal, which includes theWashington Nationals, San Diego also receives catcher Ryan Hanigan, left-hander Jose Castillo, and right-hander Gerardo Reyes from the Rays.

Heading to Tampa Bay is right-handerBurch Smith, first baseman Jake Bauers and catcher Ren Rivera from the Padres, and outfielder Steven Souzaand left-hander Travis Ott from the Nationals.

Washington will receive right-hander Joe Ross and shortstop Trea Turner as a player to be named later on June 14.

 

[Captain Hook]

Nationals made out like bandits for being the third team in this deal

 

[Premier]

Deal is done.

Enjoy Jeff Franceo....errr, Wil Myers gunz.

how quickly we turn...

I turned last year actually. Watching him constantly flail away at 2-strike offspeed pitches in the dirt drove me to drink.

I was worried (but also thrilled) when the Rays traded for him due to his 28% K rate in AAA but then ecstatic his first year. I think he will end up being a good player, but this is the second franchise to punt on him.

 

[RnR]

So I assume this effectively kills the Upton to SD talk?

 

[Captain Hook]

So I assume this effectively kills the Upton to SD talk?

Likely Unless ATL lowers their demands - they wanted more than they got for Heyward and several teams who would deal for JUp are reluctant to give up too much in prospects for a one year player

 

[shadyridr]

Thank God! He killed the Yankees (and thats about all he killed)

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I'd guess 3.5-4 WAR for Kemp next year, assuming he's healthy.

He played in 150 games last year and put up 1.8 WAR. His defense is atrocious these days by just about any measurement.

He has only put up two seasons (2009 and 2011) in his career that were greater than 3.5 WAR.

Right. His WAR is extremely low due mostly to either injury or his poor defense in CF.

He's fully healthy now, and he's now strictly a LF, so I expect his defensive metrics to improve. And if they don't, he'll still likely be putting up 3-4 oWAR, which IMO is a far more accurate measure of his offensive value than the negative dWAR is of his defensive value. Not to mention that the Padres need offense far more than defensive right now.

Kemp's biggest deficiency is his range, whereas he has a good arm and is pretty sure-handed on the balls that he does manage to get to, so I agree that a switch to a corner is to his advantage, and it's a bit alarming that the Doyers didn't move him long ago.

Still, even in LF, range matters. And that seems to be declining with age and injuries. I would think that he's not going to be as bad, but he's still going to be a negative defender. And I think 3-4 oWAR is extremely, extremely generous. 2 WAR seems closer to a mean projection for him.

It's intriguing that the Nats appeared to have cashed in on Souza right when he's (apparently) on the cusp of being able to contribute to the big club, and coming off an IL MVP season to boot. They don't strike me as the type of club that needs or wants to recycle their players into future returns. OF was full, I guess.

Interesting that Preller's first two significant trades are with noted SABR/statdork-run teams.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

from ESPN

The San Diego Padres have agreed to a three-way trade, pending physicals, that would land them Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Wil Myers, a source confirmed to ESPN Insider Jim Bowden.

[+] EnlargeAl Bello/Getty ImagesWil Myers played in only 87 games in 2014, a season after winning the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

In the deal, which includes theWashington Nationals, San Diego also receives catcher Ryan Hanigan, left-hander Jose Castillo, and right-hander Gerardo Reyes from the Rays.

Heading to Tampa Bay is right-handerBurch Smith, first baseman Jake Bauers and catcher Ren Rivera from the Padres, and outfielder Steven Souzaand left-hander Travis Ott from the Nationals.

Washington will receive right-hander Joe Ross and shortstop Trea Turner as a player to be named later on June 14.

Any relation to Jack? Guy can probably tear #### up if so.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Steve Souza is the son of John Phillip.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

So does Zobrist go, too?

 

[Premier]

So does Zobrist go, too?

Is this a fire sale? I feel like they just hated Myers.

 

[Grahamburn]

So does Zobrist go, too?

Is this a fire sale? I feel like they just hated Myers.

Hanigan was a money dump, but I agree they just seem to have soured on Myers.

 

[Chemical X]

as a 40 yr met fan, these moves are simply gut punches.........my franchise doesn't even pretend to try anymore. hyper risk adverse and piss poor broke.

here's the thing, i keep hearing about the pitching and that's fine, but other teams are trying to improve too. this isn't a vacuum.

i think the marlins, nats and braves are better. at some point the phils may remember and try again too.

 

[pantagrapher]

Steve Souza is the son of John Phillip.

Cousin of Kaiser Souza

 

[Captain Hook]

So does Zobrist go, too?

unlikely - they have said no

 

[Captain Hook]

So does Zobrist go, too?

Is this a fire sale? I feel like they just hated Myers.

Hate is the wrong word - BUT they did not like his attitude and preparation especially heading into last season (even Myers admits he wasn't prepared last spring) so considered keeping him a gamble thus they tried to (and did) get more players for the organization some of whom have considerable upside

 

[Premier]

So does Zobrist go, too?

unlikely - they have said no

I halfway wonder if they are going to use this money to try and extend him.

He is incredibly valuable to the organization.

 

[pantagrapher]

The holdup in Matt Kemp trade is because the physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The #Padres continue to consult medical experts.

 

[the moops]

The holdup in Matt Kemp trade is because the physical revealed arthritis in both hips. The #Padres continue to consult medical experts.

That is going to take away at least 1 WAR from tommy's projections

 

[pantagrapher]

This was funny:

@howardmegdal 4m4 minutes ago

MURDER?!? RT @Ken_Rosenthal: If deal falls apart, #Dodgers almost certainly would respond in strongest possible fashion.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

So does Zobrist go, too?

unlikely - they have said no

I halfway wonder if they are going to use this money to try and extend him.

He is incredibly valuable to the organization.

I like his wife's music.

 

[tommyGunZ]

AJ Preller is ruthless. I ####### LOVE IT!

 

[the moops]

AJ Preller is ruthless. I ####### LOVE IT!

 

[Good Posting Judge]

AJ Preller is ruthless. I ####### LOVE IT!

Nice job sidestepping my bet offer yesterday.

 

[tommyGunZ]

AJ Preller is ruthless. I ####### LOVE IT!

Nice job sidestepping my bet offer yesterday.

Yeah, I don't fell strongly enough in the 3.5 WAR projection to wager a Cnote on it. And like I said, I'm not a big believer in the accuracy of defensive metrics at this point to put wagers on WAR since dWAR plays such a big part.

 

[Hilts]

Royals sign Medlen.

 

[RnR]

Royals sign Medlen.

That's a pretty attractive deal, even if he is only usable for a small portion of this season.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I loathe Kevin Millar.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Royals sign Medlen.

That's a pretty attractive deal, even if he is only usable for a small portion of this season.

Love the move. No brainier risk, at that price, that 29 other teams will probably lament not taking.

 

[Limp Ditka]

I loathe Kevin Millar.

He is quite dislikable

 

[RnR]

BOYS CLUB, ROSEY!

 

[Limp Ditka]

Right now my loathing of mlb network personalities is being distributed evenly among anyone that refers to James Shields as 'Big Game'

Just stop

 

[Limp Ditka]

Kevin Millar = the Guy Fieti of MLB Network