tommyGunZ
Footballguy
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.
ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eephus
- Start date
ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
Brady Marino
Footballguy
Eephus
Footballguy
Age 27 season coming up. This could be his best chance to break out or die of a drug overdose.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
rodg12
Footballguy
Prime example of why I think WAR is a bogus statistic. Overrates the value of the defense of a corner outfielder. The defensive aspect of the stat on a whole seems so unreliable to me that I just can't put the same emphasis on WAR that I see placed on it a lot of places.10th best WAR last year amongst all OF.
Eephus
Footballguy
Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.10th best WAR last year amongst all OF.
I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
Only because of defense... the guy is one of the most overrated hitters I can remember. With the way he's spoken of, you'd think he was hitting .290 with 30 homers every year. He had 11 home runs last year... 11. Let that sink in -- George Springer hit 9 more home runs in 300 less at bats.10th best WAR last year amongst all OF.
Heyward is a .260 hitter that'll get you 10-15 homers a year.
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bigmarc27
Footballguy
I think J-Hey is a great defensive ball player and club house guy, but I'd bet good $ that he doesn't hit 1/3 of the homers that Bonds had in his entire career.
Edit: Out of curiosity I ran the numbers on the Bonds thing... 1/3 of Bonds homers is 254. Heyward has 84, so he needs 171 more to pass a 1/3 of Bonds' total. Heyward is averaging a homer approximately every 30 ABs right, so at that pace and assuming he gets 600 ABs a year, he should reach that mark sometime in his age 33 season. So, maybe he reaches that, maybe not.
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Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
All of the shoulder (and other) injuries seemed to really have sapped Heyward's power, imo. He looked so explosive when he first came up..and may not ever get there again.
MAC_32
Footballguy
he probably is, but opportunity, a good finish to last season, hitter friendly division (again), and he's still just 27.Worth a flier in deeper daily formats.
RnR
Footballguy
Heard him on STL radio this off-season saying that he believes his lack of power numbers recently has to do with the approach he's been taking at the plate since Atlanta asked him to take on being their lead-off hitter. Says he feels he's capable of being a run producer in the middle of the order. With Carpenter already in place as a pretty good lead-off guy, the Cardinals likely will give him a chance to prove that this season.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Wonder if he added any pounds of muscle too?RnR said:
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Northern Voice
Footballguy
He seems like a Dwight Evans type to me. Good at everything, but not top 10 ever in an offensive category. Their numbers are pretty similar in their first 5 seasons as wellEephus said:
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MAC_32
Footballguy
I was referring to stadiums over actual arms, but these numbers still surprise me. Probably not really digging into arms until February sometime, but a starting point is always good. Also surprised the Rays are fourth and not first.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
Yeah, I meant more traditional triple crown categories. Heyward has also already been in the top 10 in OBP, walks, runs. Both won gold gloves, Heyward so far is ahead in WAR (same stage of career) for reasons discussed above. Evans never hit more than 20 HR's until his age 26 season, so Heyward could still find his power in time to match as he grows older.
Their OPS+ in first 5 years:
Evans 117, 93, 110,120, 109
Heyward 131, 93, 117, 114, 108
It's not perfect, but I don't think it's too far off at this stage of their careers.
Northern Voice
Footballguy
To bring this full circle, Dwight Evans most similar player according to Baseball Reference is Luis Gonzalez, and Luis Gonzalez's most similar player through age 24 is.... Travis Snider!
Eephus
Footballguy
Dewey was underappreciated for a long time. Once he found his power stroke at age 29, he was a consistent league leader in HRs. Fenway helped him with 2Bs and HRs but he could hit anywhere.
Evans' (-5) OF arm in Strato-O-Matic didn't get challenged very often.
Eephus
Footballguy
the moops
Footballguy
Rays aren't 4th. And zero chance anyone should be above the Nationals with their starting rotation
Northern Voice
Footballguy
MAC_32
Footballguy
in the division.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Gordon also put up pretty amazing numbers as a corner. It's obviously less ground to cover than CF, but it's not like anyone is good enough to be able to cover an entire corner zone, to the point where a good fielder is wasted.Eephus said:Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.10th best WAR last year amongst all OF.
I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.
Heyward's a month older than George Springer. Just seems a wee bit early to write him off.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
It really boils down to what kind of contract Heyward sees coming up. The numbers I keep seeing floated are like 9 for $200 which is insane. A more reasonable number though and he's a player any team would be happy to have roaming the OF.Gordon also put up pretty amazing numbers as a corner. It's obviously less ground to cover than CF, but it's not like anyone is good enough to be able to cover an entire corner zone, to the point where a good fielder is wasted.Eephus said:Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.10th best WAR last year amongst all OF.
I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.
Heyward's a month older than George Springer. Just seems a wee bit early to write him off.
pantagrapher
Footballguy
Back on the speed-of-the-game/boost offense tip, Theo Epstein thinks relievers should have to face at least two batters.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I kind of like this idea ... but it's certainly bizarre. Does any other sport require players to continue to play for a certain period of time? Obviously in soccer you get a limited number of substitutions so maybe someone who's struggling has to stay out there for strategic reasons, but a situation where a guy who clearly doesn't have it on a particular day has to stay out there and keep playing would be unprecedented, yes?
I think I'd probably prefer limiting the number of pitching changes instead, just because I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that concept. Maybe say you can only use 5 pitchers per game, with allowances for injuries and extra innings?
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
I was thinking if we HAD to make a rule to speed the game it would be a RP couldn't be removed mid-inning if he hasn't given up a baserunner/hit. Kind of similar.
I prefer fixing the strike zone/do nothing though.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Pitchers have to just warm up on their own when their team is batting. Once you get the third out, you have to have your next hitter in the batter's box within 30 seconds.
Eephus
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Wrigley
Footballguy
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pantagrapher
Footballguy
The thing about limiting pitching changes or making relievers pitch to at least two batters is that these kinds of decisions even out over the course of the season. If you stretch your bullpen and use a bunch of guys for match ups in one series, you probably have to let a starter struggle through a rough start next series (not a perfect example, but that's the drift). I like keeping batters with one foot in the box, but then do they have to appeal to the ump to leave the box to brush off after hitting the dirt to avoid a pitch or something like that?
Maybe just decrease the period of time teams have to make a pitching change. Shorten it up enough that they don't need a commercial break. The reliever should already be loose. Five throws from the mound and make them pitch. Allowances can be made for a reliever coming in due to injury.
Maybe just decrease the period of time teams have to make a pitching change. Shorten it up enough that they don't need a commercial break. The reliever should already be loose. Five throws from the mound and make them pitch. Allowances can be made for a reliever coming in due to injury.
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Captain Hook
Footballguy
Find someone to hold funds and I will send the first hundred that says over
Wrigley
Footballguy
shadyridr
Footballguy
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Eephus
Footballguy
I don't mind the pace of the game while I'm at the ballpark. There are times when a lot of late inning pitching changes can get tiresome but it's part of the game, especially when the outcome hangs in the balance.
Game time seems to be largely driven by TV but broadcasters are their own worst enemies. Between inning breaks and pitching changes could be faster but they're largely dictated by the need to cram in four 30 second ads.
