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*2014-15 Hot Stove Thread: The Padres won it I guess (1 Viewer)

I like the idea of implementing these changes in teh minors so they just carry over to the MLB. Don't make the vets do any of this weird #### and mess with the game I already love.

Do the pitch clock and foot-in-face box rule in the minors and the game will eventually just be faster over time.
I think the Cubs will be fine, they have a lot of young players. We have nothing to worry about.
66 wins.
betting window is open
50 wins.

 
Interesting trade involving Travis Snider.

Post post post post...post hype sleeper?

Plenty of opportunity in Baltimore's outfield.
At some point you're no longer a sleeper, and you're just ####ty.
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.

ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
10th best WAR last year amongst all OF. :shrug:
Prime example of why I think WAR is a bogus statistic. Overrates the value of the defense of a corner outfielder. The defensive aspect of the stat on a whole seems so unreliable to me that I just can't put the same emphasis on WAR that I see placed on it a lot of places.

 
Interesting trade involving Travis Snider.

Post post post post...post hype sleeper?

Plenty of opportunity in Baltimore's outfield.
At some point you're no longer a sleeper, and you're just ####ty.
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.

ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
10th best WAR last year amongst all OF. :shrug:
Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.

I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.

 
Interesting trade involving Travis Snider.

Post post post post...post hype sleeper?

Plenty of opportunity in Baltimore's outfield.
At some point you're no longer a sleeper, and you're just ####ty.
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.

ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
10th best WAR last year amongst all OF. :shrug:
Only because of defense... the guy is one of the most overrated hitters I can remember. With the way he's spoken of, you'd think he was hitting .290 with 30 homers every year. He had 11 home runs last year... 11. Let that sink in -- George Springer hit 9 more home runs in 300 less at bats.

Heyward is a .260 hitter that'll get you 10-15 homers a year.

 
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GPJ's head is going to explode after all these blasphemous posts. Be ready to be called idiots... or worse.

 
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The best thing about Heyward's B-R page are his comps. Even after 2800 MLB PAs, he's a very unique talent. His age 24 comps include both Barry Bonds and Jeff Francoeur, which should just about cover the entire range of possible outcomes.

 
The best thing about Heyward's B-R page are his comps. Even after 2800 MLB PAs, he's a very unique talent. His age 24 comps include both Barry Bonds and Jeff Francoeur, which should just about cover the entire range of possible outcomes.
I think J-Hey is a great defensive ball player and club house guy, but I'd bet good $ that he doesn't hit 1/3 of the homers that Bonds had in his entire career.

Edit: Out of curiosity I ran the numbers on the Bonds thing... 1/3 of Bonds homers is 254. Heyward has 84, so he needs 171 more to pass a 1/3 of Bonds' total. Heyward is averaging a homer approximately every 30 ABs right, so at that pace and assuming he gets 600 ABs a year, he should reach that mark sometime in his age 33 season. So, maybe he reaches that, maybe not.

 
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All of the shoulder (and other) injuries seemed to really have sapped Heyward's power, imo. He looked so explosive when he first came up..and may not ever get there again.

 
All of the shoulder (and other) injuries seemed to really have sapped Heyward's power, imo. He looked so explosive when he first came up..and may not ever get there again.
Heard him on STL radio this off-season saying that he believes his lack of power numbers recently has to do with the approach he's been taking at the plate since Atlanta asked him to take on being their lead-off hitter. Says he feels he's capable of being a run producer in the middle of the order. With Carpenter already in place as a pretty good lead-off guy, the Cardinals likely will give him a chance to prove that this season.

 
RnR said:
Notorious T.R.E. said:
All of the shoulder (and other) injuries seemed to really have sapped Heyward's power, imo. He looked so explosive when he first came up..and may not ever get there again.
Heard him on STL radio this off-season saying that he believes his lack of power numbers recently has to do with the approach he's been taking at the plate since Atlanta asked him to take on being their lead-off hitter. Says he feels he's capable of being a run producer in the middle of the order. With Carpenter already in place as a pretty good lead-off guy, the Cardinals likely will give him a chance to prove that this season.
Wonder if he added any pounds of muscle too?

 
Eephus said:
The best thing about Heyward's B-R page are his comps. Even after 2800 MLB PAs, he's a very unique talent. His age 24 comps include both Barry Bonds and Jeff Francoeur, which should just about cover the entire range of possible outcomes.
He seems like a Dwight Evans type to me. Good at everything, but not top 10 ever in an offensive category. Their numbers are pretty similar in their first 5 seasons as well

 
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MAC_32 said:
hitter friendly division (again), and he's still just 27.
Yankees and Red Sox are 4th and 5th in projected pitching WAR. Blue Jays 14th. Rays 16th
I was referring to stadiums over actual arms, but these numbers still surprise me. Probably not really digging into arms until February sometime, but a starting point is always good. Also surprised the Rays are fourth and not first.

 
Dwight Evans was top 10 a multitude of times in OPS, SLG, RS, HITS, WALKS...

Oh, and he should be in the HOF
Yeah, I meant more traditional triple crown categories. Heyward has also already been in the top 10 in OBP, walks, runs. Both won gold gloves, Heyward so far is ahead in WAR (same stage of career) for reasons discussed above. Evans never hit more than 20 HR's until his age 26 season, so Heyward could still find his power in time to match as he grows older.

Their OPS+ in first 5 years:

Evans 117, 93, 110,120, 109

Heyward 131, 93, 117, 114, 108

It's not perfect, but I don't think it's too far off at this stage of their careers.

 
To bring this full circle, Dwight Evans most similar player according to Baseball Reference is Luis Gonzalez, and Luis Gonzalez's most similar player through age 24 is.... Travis Snider!

 
Dwight Evans was top 10 a multitude of times in OPS, SLG, RS, HITS, WALKS...

Oh, and he should be in the HOF
Yeah, I meant more traditional triple crown categories. Heyward has also already been in the top 10 in OBP, walks, runs. Both won gold gloves, Heyward so far is ahead in WAR (same stage of career) for reasons discussed above. Evans never hit more than 20 HR's until his age 26 season, so Heyward could still find his power in time to match as he grows older.

Their OPS+ in first 5 years:

Evans 117, 93, 110,120, 109

Heyward 131, 93, 117, 114, 108

It's not perfect, but I don't think it's too far off at this stage of their careers.
Dewey was underappreciated for a long time. Once he found his power stroke at age 29, he was a consistent league leader in HRs. Fenway helped him with 2Bs and HRs but he could hit anywhere.

Evans' (-5) OF arm in Strato-O-Matic didn't get challenged very often.

 
MAC_32 said:
hitter friendly division (again), and he's still just 27.
Yankees and Red Sox are 4th and 5th in projected pitching WAR. Blue Jays 14th. Rays 16th
I was referring to stadiums over actual arms, but these numbers still surprise me. Probably not really digging into arms until February sometime, but a starting point is always good. Also surprised the Rays are fourth and not first.
Rays aren't 4th. And zero chance anyone should be above the Nationals with their starting rotation

 
MAC_32 said:
hitter friendly division (again), and he's still just 27.
Yankees and Red Sox are 4th and 5th in projected pitching WAR. Blue Jays 14th. Rays 16th
I was referring to stadiums over actual arms, but these numbers still surprise me. Probably not really digging into arms until February sometime, but a starting point is always good. Also surprised the Rays are fourth and not first.
Rays aren't 4th. And zero chance anyone should be above the Nationals with their starting rotation
in the division.
 
Eephus said:
Interesting trade involving Travis Snider.

Post post post post...post hype sleeper?

Plenty of opportunity in Baltimore's outfield.
At some point you're no longer a sleeper, and you're just ####ty.
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.

ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
10th best WAR last year amongst all OF. :shrug:
Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.

I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.
Gordon also put up pretty amazing numbers as a corner. It's obviously less ground to cover than CF, but it's not like anyone is good enough to be able to cover an entire corner zone, to the point where a good fielder is wasted.

Heyward's a month older than George Springer. Just seems a wee bit early to write him off.

 
Eephus said:
Interesting trade involving Travis Snider.

Post post post post...post hype sleeper?

Plenty of opportunity in Baltimore's outfield.
At some point you're no longer a sleeper, and you're just ####ty.
I'm getting close to this point w/re to J-Hey.

ETA: I realize he's not "####ty", but compared to the hype, he's a monster disappointment.
10th best WAR last year amongst all OF. :shrug:
Heyward is probably the most divisive current player when it comes to measuring value under old and new stats. His Triple Crown stats (.271, 11, 58) are unremarkable but he contributes a lot of secondary value with defense, baserunning and avoiding double plays.

I have no idea how corner OF defense can possibly amount to 3.5 wins over the course of a season. I suspect it's a one year anomaly though. His dWAR over the previous three years ranged from 1.1 to 1.5. Although he missed less time in 2014, it doesn't pass the sniff test that he was more than twice as good defensively than he was in the years before. I'll bet the under on 3.0 dWAR in 2015.
Gordon also put up pretty amazing numbers as a corner. It's obviously less ground to cover than CF, but it's not like anyone is good enough to be able to cover an entire corner zone, to the point where a good fielder is wasted.

Heyward's a month older than George Springer. Just seems a wee bit early to write him off.
It really boils down to what kind of contract Heyward sees coming up. The numbers I keep seeing floated are like 9 for $200 which is insane. A more reasonable number though and he's a player any team would be happy to have roaming the OF.

 
I kind of like this idea ... but it's certainly bizarre. Does any other sport require players to continue to play for a certain period of time? Obviously in soccer you get a limited number of substitutions so maybe someone who's struggling has to stay out there for strategic reasons, but a situation where a guy who clearly doesn't have it on a particular day has to stay out there and keep playing would be unprecedented, yes?

I think I'd probably prefer limiting the number of pitching changes instead, just because I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around that concept. Maybe say you can only use 5 pitchers per game, with allowances for injuries and extra innings?

 
Was it here or somewhere else that I read if hitters weren't allowed to leave the batters box after every pitch, it would save a good bit of time?

 
Pitchers have to just warm up on their own when their team is batting. Once you get the third out, you have to have your next hitter in the batter's box within 30 seconds.

 
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The thing about limiting pitching changes or making relievers pitch to at least two batters is that these kinds of decisions even out over the course of the season. If you stretch your bullpen and use a bunch of guys for match ups in one series, you probably have to let a starter struggle through a rough start next series (not a perfect example, but that's the drift). I like keeping batters with one foot in the box, but then do they have to appeal to the ump to leave the box to brush off after hitting the dirt to avoid a pitch or something like that?

Maybe just decrease the period of time teams have to make a pitching change. Shorten it up enough that they don't need a commercial break. The reliever should already be loose. Five throws from the mound and make them pitch. Allowances can be made for a reliever coming in due to injury.

 
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I like the idea of implementing these changes in teh minors so they just carry over to the MLB. Don't make the vets do any of this weird #### and mess with the game I already love.

Do the pitch clock and foot-in-face box rule in the minors and the game will eventually just be faster over time.
I think the Cubs will be fine, they have a lot of young players. We have nothing to worry about.
66 wins.
betting window is open
50 wins.
Find someone to hold funds and I will send the first hundred that says over

 
I like the idea of implementing these changes in teh minors so they just carry over to the MLB. Don't make the vets do any of this weird #### and mess with the game I already love.

Do the pitch clock and foot-in-face box rule in the minors and the game will eventually just be faster over time.
I think the Cubs will be fine, they have a lot of young players. We have nothing to worry about.
66 wins.
betting window is open
50 wins.
Find someone to hold funds and I will send the first hundred that says over
I'll hold it

 
Was it here or somewhere else that I read if hitters weren't allowed to leave the batters box after every pitch, it would save a good bit of time?
This would be the biggest change and one everyone would be behind.
Define everyone.
fans
Meh.
I don't mind the pace of the game while I'm at the ballpark. There are times when a lot of late inning pitching changes can get tiresome but it's part of the game, especially when the outcome hangs in the balance.

Game time seems to be largely driven by TV but broadcasters are their own worst enemies. Between inning breaks and pitching changes could be faster but they're largely dictated by the need to cram in four 30 second ads.

 
I like the idea of implementing these changes in teh minors so they just carry over to the MLB. Don't make the vets do any of this weird #### and mess with the game I already love.

Do the pitch clock and foot-in-face box rule in the minors and the game will eventually just be faster over time.
I think the Cubs will be fine, they have a lot of young players. We have nothing to worry about.
66 wins.
betting window is open
50 wins.
Find someone to hold funds and I will send the first hundred that says over
I'll hold it
Wrigley? Jesus, is Zangrillololoilili not available?

49.5 wins.

 

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