2014 STOCK CONTEST- For guderian;RESULTS IN POST 379 (1 Viewer)

[QuizGuy66]

So...who called MYRA @ a 900% gainer?

The stupidity of some investors should've been more obvious when the My IRA plan was announced the other night.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-30/did-someone-insider-trade-on-obama-s-myra-.html

LMAO - somebody made a cool $98 I guess

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

It is still very early, but here are the standings one month out of the gate. After collectively lagging the S&P 500 last year by 6 percentage points, we are at least starting out ahead (+2.2% vs. -3.5% ).

By % Gain

identikit
PLUG 91.0

Mystery Achiever
FEYE 68.3

BeTheMatch

RIC 49.0

jwp

GWPRF 32.9

Nugget

SCTY 30.6

Fennis

ZGNX 28.8

Rattle and Hum

MZOR 27.6

Abraham

BBRY 27.3

Vladimir

EXK 19.3

pack100

KERX 18.2

QuizGuy66

GTAT 17.3

Eminence

FB 14.8

Warrior

PTEK 14.6

elcohiba

SZYM 14.1

Man With No Name

LBMH 11.9

fantasycurse42

GRPN 11.7

pecorino

NFLX 11.2

bucsforlife_99

RAD 10.5

The Ref

IAG 9.9

Todem

GILD 7.7

kevzilla

NBS 7.0

eoMMan

GALE 6.5

stubby

SWKS 6.0

sporthenry

GERN 5.5

Sand

DLR 4.1

Txns8

RESI -0.3

Routilla

CHTP -0.9

Wilfredo Ledezma

MPEL -2.1

bicycle_seat_sniffer

V -3.1

rustycolts

F -3.2

lakerstan

TXT -3.2

Ted Lange

ZIOP -3.2

mquinnjr

JNJ -3.7

Arid Filch

ZAGG -3.9

SteevieG

DVN -3.9

Acme CEO

FUEL -4.8

KingPrawn

RIBT -5.1

Patoons

OLED -5.2

Jayrod

KOG -5.4

Gawain

OPXA -5.5

tikigods

ACAD -6.6

Mister Martie

GS -7.0

Ignoramus

GGS -7.5

DZ2300

WMIH -7.8

Andrew74

NSPH -7.9

TheIronSheik

C -8.7

jason12vb

NXTD -9.0

GoBirds

HMPR -9.1

johnnyrock62000

SNTA -9.2

lod01

AMRN -9.6

sbonomo

AMZN -9.7

spoons

ALU -10.0

Gen Malaise

AMYGF -10.0

kutta

SGY -10.2

Peyton Marino

GRPN -10.5

Witz

SSYS -10.5

Guster

AAPL -10.9

Instinctive

APRI -11.7

Penguin

GM -12.0

Uruk-Hai

WGO -12.4

Sandeman

FCX -14.3

jamny

NOK -14.3

Buck Bradcanon

MTNOY -14.9

optionmaven

ONVO -15.3

St Louis Bob

DDD -16.1

(HULK)

TSLA -17.5

Al Czervik

SID -25.0

SouthJersey

JCP -35.1

 

[fantasycurse42]

I was short GRPN - I'm ahead not behind.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I was short GRPN - I'm ahead not behind.

Sorry, I reversed you and Peyton Marino, who is long. I have to put in manually because Google Finance nets them out to zero. Fixed now

 

[sbonomo]

oooooof - Amazon is wearing it today..........I will be lucky to break even this year. Much like when i play poker, REBUY!

 

[TheIronSheik]

I've got you all right where I want you.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Big rally for GTAT today

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Is there news, QG, or halo effect of buzz of new Apple products?

 

[QuizGuy66]

Is there news, QG, or halo effect of buzz of new Apple products?

The news didn't seem all that concrete to be honest - just a positive story about its involvement with Apple from what I could tell. The outgoing CFO sold off half his stock a few days ago which dropped it down for a couple days so some of this was bounce back but it's trading close to its 52-week high. One article I read describe investigating in this stock as putting everything on black. It could be an incredible success or bankrupt by 2017. Certainly is a crazy stock to follow.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

It's up another 7.82% so far today - now trading 11.58 as I type this.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Seeking Alpha had an interesting nugget. While it's not persuaded that sapphire is better than gorilla glass it notes that Samsung owns about 7% of Corning - that might be enough to make Apple 2nd Fiddle to Samsung in terms of newest/latest Gorilla Glass products - and THAT might be enough to force Apple to rely on an alternative, presumably Sapphire.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

This was on yahoo's front page today. It's a very positive piece. The reality may be different in terms of sapphire. But this is the stuff that has GTAT trading higher.

http://news.yahoo.com/iphone-6-boast-superstrong-5-133655730.html

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

article says mean things about GTAT and the price goes down

commenters disagree

I'm just riding the coaster in this contest

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gt-advanced-technologies-gtat-overbought-140545990.html

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I don't know anything about Zacks' track record, but a pullback after the recent run is normal.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Another rally for GTAT. Maybe I should start taking my own stock advice .

Anyway it's up around 14.00 now.

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I had a feeling you'd be checking in today, QG.

Moves you up to fourth place.

 

[Eminence]

I hope Facebook splits, lol.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I had a feeling you'd be checking in today, QG. Moves you up to fourth place.

Got enjoy this before it crashes on some minor bad news like it will.

-QG

 

[QuizGuy66]

Um, so apparently my 1/2 hour of stumbling onto a stock for this contest may have been genius.

And maybe I should, y'know, actually buy some stock in said company?!?...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/26/gt-advanced-technologies-looks-incredibly-cheap-to.aspx

-QG

 

[identikit]

Um, so apparently my 1/2 hour of stumbling onto a stock for this contest may have been genius.

And maybe I should, y'know, actually buy some stock in said company?!?...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/26/gt-advanced-technologies-looks-incredibly-cheap-to.aspx

-QG

Jumped in for 400 shares @ 11.64 based on your post.

Loving the potential here.

 

[spoons]

Dude that took JCP might be in last place, but seems to be coming back a little bit last few days.

 

[Andrew74]

Um, so apparently my 1/2 hour of stumbling onto a stock for this contest may have been genius.

And maybe I should, y'know, actually buy some stock in said company?!?...

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/02/26/gt-advanced-technologies-looks-incredibly-cheap-to.aspx

-QG

Bloomberg analyst consensus is $17.50. Talked to one of my equity guys and he thinks it can go to low $20s. NSPH better get moving for me.

 

[QuizGuy66]

GTAT up to $16.12 now.

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

They are in some hot areas. At this rate, you will soon bump me out of 2nd place. None of us will catch identikit with PLUG any time soon, though. (+330%)

 

[fantasycurse42]

Short on Groupon has to have me near the top...

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Short on Groupon has to have me near the top...

16th (+26%)

 

[QuizGuy66]

Short on Groupon has to have me near the top...

16th (+26%)

The problem with shorts in this contest is you can only top out at 100%.

I did that with BGP 2 or 3 years ago - and did it in like a month's time

Couldn't win the contest though - you basically need to have the entire market get destroyed to be able to win with only 100% return.

-QG

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I didn't look up the years Sand ran, but of the ones jamny or I did, the only time a short won was guderian's pick the 1st year.

 

[identikit]

They are in some hot areas. At this rate, you will soon bump me out of 2nd place. None of us will catch identikit with PLUG any time soon, though. (+330%)

That whole area (hydrogen fuel cells) is pretty hot.

I invested in BLDP (+26% today, +116% overall for me) and HYGS (+7% today, +29% overall for me) also.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Glad you have real life profits, too. I saw the group was up big today on Tesla's Europe expansion.

 

[QuizGuy66]

I wonder how the FBG market basket index is doing

-QG

 

[identikit]

Glad you have real life profits, too. I saw the group was up big today on Tesla's Europe expansion.

Got the tip on PLUG from the FFA stock thread.

Someone posted about it...CSTU maybe?

Up 1074 % on that (bought 200 shares @ 57 cents, only a $113 investment).

Kicking myself for not putting more into it.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I wonder how the FBG market basket index is doing

-QG

Looks like +13.2%

 

[Fennis]

I wonder how the FBG market basket index is doing

-QG

Looks like +13.2%

+3.2% when you figure in the fees we charge

 

[QuizGuy66]

Now it's 17.50 - over 100%

-QG

 

[identikit]

PLUG up 30% today.

Oy.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Now it's 17.50 - over 100%

-QG

So, i guess that means you never bought any. FEYE dropped abput 10% based on pricing of their secondary, so you are solidly up to second place. Good luck trying to catch identikit, now up 433%!

 

[lod01]

It's over. Identikit got PLUG, we all got Butt PLUGged.

 

[Eminence]

I mean, PLUG could always come crashing down in the next 9 months.

 

[Sand]

It ain't much, but I'm sitting on a real 6% profit so far on DLR. I expect to continue to hold and collect the 6% dividend while it (hopefully) continues to recover.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Citron, the firm that loves to trash DDD, has moved onto PLUG, saying fair value is 50 cents.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Cirton, the firm that loves to trash DDD, has moved onto PLUG, saying fair value is 50 cents.

Down 20-25% today.

I'm back in it

-QG

 

[TheIronSheik]

My stock pick is still trying to get back to the price it was when I picked it. There's a reason I'm not in the stock market, I guess. Who knew randomly picking a stock was not a guaranteed success at winning a stock contest?

 

[siffoin]

Cirton, the firm that loves to trash DDD, has moved onto PLUG, saying fair value is 50 cents.

Down 20-25% today.

I'm back in it

-QG

Let's say that at some point in time Share Price and True Value Meet. If there was a continuum of Price:Value it might look something like this:

Crashing Bear Market= Extremely Undervalued

Bear Market= Undervalued

Minor Bear= Undervalued to Slightly Undervalued

Minor Bull= Slightly undervalued to Fairly Valued

Bull= Fairly Valued to Slightly Overvalued

Bubble= Extremely Overvalued

$PLUG was a $.50 stock in November.. Let's agree it was undervalued at $.50. But at the nearly $12 it was trading at early today that's an increase of more than 20x in share value in 4 months. Does it seem likely that somehow investors in the midst of a 4+ year bull market completely "missed" the value of $PLUG and are just catching up?

Does:

1) growth rate;

2) Sales;

3) PROFITS in the past 4 months validate such an extreme move?

Or has the exuberance of the crowd pushed the stock into bubble territory?

Earlier today this was a $billion market cap company with a lot of negative fundamentals and revenues of just under $25m. Perhaps the earnings report in a couple of days will show dramatic improvement. I did try to place a trade in the early part of the year for $PLUG at $1.60ish that never got filled- and I typically don't chase (which has hurt me considerably this year)

Technically $PLUG is wildly bullish even with the decline today. Though this bar will be concerning.

I'd love to hear thoughts on why it should be "honestly" valued at more than $3-$4 which was the high end of my expectation for the entire 2014 back when I tried to make the trade in Jan.

Edit: All things being equal: I would also expect that even with today's decline $PLUG will work it's way back towards the old highs and probably even exceed them. It's that kind of market. (The one caveat is the earning report)

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I'd love to hear thoughts on why it should be "honestly" valued at more than $3-$4 which was the high end of my expectation for the entire 2014 back when I tried to make the trade in Jan.

Edit: All things being equal: I would also expect that even with today's decline $PLUG will work it's way back towards the old highs and probably even exceed them. It's that kind of market. (The one caveat is the earning report)

It is hard to imagine any scenario where a stock can be so undervalued that it deserves to be 600% higher in ten weeks time. But, I know momentum stocks trade on future expectations, so a rebound wouldn't be shocking, I guess. I don't do much with momentum or low-priced stocks, so don't really know how to approach.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

I'm back in it

Quiz- The GT CEO is going to be on Fast Money (CNBC 5pm) today if you are interested. The video should be available later on their site.

 

[identikit]

I'm back in it

Quiz- The GT CEO is going to be on Fast Money (CNBC 5pm) today if you are interested. The video should be available later on their site.

Watched this.

A lot of secrecy about just what the Sapphire screens will be made for. The new operation facility seems like it should bring their cost down.

Gut feeling that there's a very good chance that they will be in all Apple devices in time (as QG has posted).

400 shares in for the long haul.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

1st Quarter Update

Our average gains is 3.2% compared to S&P 500 gain of 1.3%.

identikit continues to lead with PLUG. At the other end, Ignoramus' Global Geophysical pick unfortunately just declared bankruptcy.

% Gain Through 3/31:

identikit PLUG 358.1

QuizGuy66 GTAT 95.5

Mystery Achiever FEYE 41.2

BeTheMatch RIC 41.0

jwp GWPRF 40.9

fantasycurse42 GRPN 33.4

pack100 KERX 31.6

stubby SWKS 31.4

Routilla CHTP 24.6

bucsforlife_99 RAD 23.9

kutta SGY 21.3

Vladimir EXK 18.7

DZ2300 WMIH 15.3

Eminence FB 10.2

Nugget SCTY 10.2

Warrior PTEK 9.4

Abraham BBRY 8.6

Jayrod KOG 8.3

SteevieG DVN 8.2

Sand DLR 8.1

mquinnjr JNJ 7.0

lakerstan TXT 6.9

elcohiba SZYM 6.6

Arid Filch ZAGG 6.2

The Ref IAG 5.7

Ted Lange ZIOP 5.5

Txns8 RESI 4.8

Rattle and Hum MZOR 4.7

pecorino NFLX 4.4

kevzilla NBS 3.4

Gawain OPXA 1.7

rustycolts F 1.0

Uruk-Hai WGO -0.2

Buck Bradcanon MTNOY -2.1

tikigods ACAD -2.6

bicycle_seat_sniffer V -3.1

Guster AAPL -4.3

Todem GILD -5.7

SouthJersey JCP -5.8

Andrew74 NSPH -6.1

Patoons OLED -7.1

Mister Martie GS -7.6

Wilfredo Ledezma MPEL -7.6

lod01 AMRN -8.1

Gen Malaise AMYGF -8.2

Man With No Name LBMH -8.6

TheIronSheik C -8.7

GoBirds HMPR -9.1

jamny NOK -9.5

spoons ALU -11.4

Sandeman FCX -12.4

jason12vb NXTD -14.8

sbonomo AMZN -15.7

Penguin GM -15.8

Fennis ZGNX -17.2

Instinctive APRI -18.9

Witz SSYS -21.2

KingPrawn RIBT -23.5

johnnyrock62000 SNTA -26.7

Al Czervik SID -29.7

Acme CEO FUEL -30.3

optionmaven ONVO -31.0

Peyton Marino GRPN -33.4

St Louis Bob DDD -36.4

(HULK) TSLA -38.6

eoMMan GALE -49.6

sporthenry GERN -55.9

Ignoramus GEGSQ -92.6

 

[Ignoramus]

1st Quarter Update

Our average gains is 3.2% compared to S&P 500 gain of 1.3%.

identikit continues to lead with PLUG. At the other end, Ignoramus' Global Geophysical pick unfortunately just declared bankruptcy.

Ignoramus GEGSQ -92.6

On the plus side, stock is up 2.7 cents intraday which is like 20%! Follow me on Twitter for my other picks... I'll make you rich!

 

[TheIronSheik]

1st Quarter Update

Our average gains is 3.2% compared to S&P 500 gain of 1.3%.

identikit continues to lead with PLUG. At the other end, Ignoramus' Global Geophysical pick unfortunately just declared bankruptcy.

Ignoramus GEGSQ -92.6

On the plus side, stock is up 2.7 cents intraday which is like 20%! Follow me on Twitter for my other picks... I'll make you rich!