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2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
Bridgewater is injured, Ponder is Ponder...Minnesota is usually better than most teams I would fade, but this is a tough spot for them.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
I'd really strongly highly advise against Seattle on the road. Saints are the way to go IMO.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Week 7 looks dicey with what I have left, and GB (and CHI) are the only two decent options I'm going to have available, or Arizona in Oakland. I think you go NO here, SEA next week (probably -10 against Dallas), and save GB for later. NO's a better play on paper anyway.
Love, love, love GB on a short week, at home, against a team riddled with injury, uncertainty, and chaos. I think the oddsmakers see MIN coming off the surprising curbstomp of ATL, and are trying to parlay that into a "too big to pass up" GB line.
Don't step in the trap.
GB in a laugher.
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
Don't step in the trap.
GB in a laugher.
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
snellman
Footballguy
You may be right. However, I will never take a division game on a Suicide pool Especially an NFC north one (being a Viking fan). These games never end up as they appear on paper.Love, love, love GB on a short week, at home, against a team riddled with injury, uncertainty, and chaos. I think the oddsmakers see MIN coming off the surprising curbstomp of ATL, and are trying to parlay that into a "too big to pass up" GB line.
Don't step in the trap.
GB in a laugher.
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
seahawk 17
Footballguy
Going Eagles!
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
I've narrowed it down to Packers or Saints. Really wanna save the Packers for week 7 but I really wanna get this out of the way tomorrow night. If Bridgewater sits I'll probably go Pack, if he magically plays then I'm going Saints.
Gottabesweet
Footballguy
I might roll with Denver, I've already used NO, GB, INDY and PHI
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Switched to GB in the one pool where I had them available when Bridgewater was declared inactive. Probably the best decision I will make this season.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
GB was a sweet pick. I just didn't have them available. Hoping the Saints have it just as easy.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Like most weeks, I am changing my mind again. I am going with NO. If Calvin is still hurting for Detroit, I cannot expect enough from that O.
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
Saints, Lions, or Chargers?
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'm feeling frisky and will be changing course this morning. I'm taking the G-Men. The Falcons are hideous on the road, and their defense could not have stopped a Pop Warner team last week. They made a Vikings offense - behind a QB making his first NFL start - look like the '99 Rams. I don't see how they slow down a Giants offense which has been rolling. And Atlanta's O-line is a mess.
Not many great spots to use NYG going forward. Hoping for a bloodbath by some of the other favorites.
Not many great spots to use NYG going forward. Hoping for a bloodbath by some of the other favorites.
4th&inches
Footballguy
was between DET & NO myself...but with Calvin not 100%; I'm rolling with NO this week
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'm happy for you guys in here who survived with the Saints... but DAMN, my gamble almost paid off!
Of course New Orleans won the toss in OT. And then of course they got bailed out on 3rd & long on a very questionable hands to the face call. Frustrating. That would have eliminated about 35% of my pool. The Bucs had their chances though. They just aren't good enough to consistently win games like this.
Of course New Orleans won the toss in OT. And then of course they got bailed out on 3rd & long on a very questionable hands to the face call. Frustrating. That would have eliminated about 35% of my pool. The Bucs had their chances though. They just aren't good enough to consistently win games like this.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I agree, but man does that seem unlikely. Maybe the Hawks can somehow turn it over a couple of times.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I've already mapped out and entered my picks for the rest of the season, except for week 17 when some starters could be sitting. I won't tinker with it unless a major injury occurs. It surprisingly wasn't that difficult. There are some teams which will be definitely be double-digit favorites. Not more than one or two tricky spots. I just don't want to second-guess myself every week. It gets stressful.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Tricky week this week, not getting any easier but alive is alive.
Ideas for this week?
Im leaning towards DENVER -7.5 @ NY Jets, if you havent used the Broncos already. That is the clearest lock of the week. Great way to move forward.
Also, SAN DIEGO - 7 @ Oakland is an interesting play. Be careful, however, Oakland is coming off a bye, new head coach, at home vs a division rival, all spells the recipe for a huge upset. San Diego hasnt been tested since there early win against Seattle at home. There other wins include, NYJ, JAX, Buffalo. Im not buying there 4-1 record at this point. I would stay away if I could, but if you've already used Denver, you might have to lock them in.
Lastly, Cinci -6.5 @ home to Carolina. Cinci is great play at home, even despite there embaressing loss to NE last night. Not sure I like them more than SD, which is why I have them listed as my #3 pick of the week. If you can wait a couple weeks, the Bengals are home to Jacksonville, and a much easier pick to make against the hapless Jags. Best of luck if you roll with the Bengals!
week 1: PITS
week 2: GB
week 3: NE
week 4: SD
week 5: NO
week 6: DENVER
Im leaning towards DENVER -7.5 @ NY Jets, if you havent used the Broncos already. That is the clearest lock of the week. Great way to move forward.
Also, SAN DIEGO - 7 @ Oakland is an interesting play. Be careful, however, Oakland is coming off a bye, new head coach, at home vs a division rival, all spells the recipe for a huge upset. San Diego hasnt been tested since there early win against Seattle at home. There other wins include, NYJ, JAX, Buffalo. Im not buying there 4-1 record at this point. I would stay away if I could, but if you've already used Denver, you might have to lock them in.
Lastly, Cinci -6.5 @ home to Carolina. Cinci is great play at home, even despite there embaressing loss to NE last night. Not sure I like them more than SD, which is why I have them listed as my #3 pick of the week. If you can wait a couple weeks, the Bengals are home to Jacksonville, and a much easier pick to make against the hapless Jags. Best of luck if you roll with the Bengals!
week 1: PITS
week 2: GB
week 3: NE
week 4: SD
week 5: NO
week 6: DENVER
FUBAR
Footballguy
I went through week 17, though I'll tinker.
I have Denver in for week 6 even though it goes against my guideline of using home teams.
Don't like weeks 7 or 8 - taking both Cardinals and Browns over Oakland. or week 12 - Dallas in NY. But it's the best I can figure out right now.
week 1: Philly
week 2: GB
week 3: Indy
week 4: SD
week 5: Pitt
week 6: Denver
Last edited by a moderator:
Glad you kicked off the discussion for Week 6. Saves me from doing it this week. Love the points made on the Chargers not necessarily "being real"... although it's not like the Raiders will make them look any more real than the Jags, Jets and Manuel-quarterbacked Bills did. Would still prefer to keep San Diego for later when they're not relying on UDFA running backs as a makeshift bellcow... although Oliver has looked great thus far. I still have San Diego locked in for Week 11 until I have a reason to go elsewhere.
Denver certainly seems the safest... although I'm not sure I want to use them yet either due to the "they haven't played the Raiders yet" factor.
Arizona at home against the Redskins on a short week seems like a strong play... granted, they have their road date with Oakland in Week 7 with few alternatives that look better. For me, I'm either looking at taking Arizona that week if I have them... or Buffalo. Ick.
I doubt Seattle has trouble at home with the 4-1 Cowboys but I don't see any reason to waste them in a matchup against an opponent that's actually good when other options remain on the table.
Some people will try to get cute and take the terrible Titans at home against the equally terrible Jaguars. I haven't gotten to Week 6 just to make a blunder of that magnitude. I already used up my crap team beats up on someone even worse card in Week 1 in some of my pools by taking the Jets... who haven't won since.
So yeah... I'm leaning Broncos with the rest of you guys as well. I'm glad San Diego's racking up wins against small fry competition because it forces Denver to continue playing lights out to keep pace. Don't want to have to worry about Peyton holding up once the cold weather hits, either.
Denver certainly seems the safest... although I'm not sure I want to use them yet either due to the "they haven't played the Raiders yet" factor.
Arizona at home against the Redskins on a short week seems like a strong play... granted, they have their road date with Oakland in Week 7 with few alternatives that look better. For me, I'm either looking at taking Arizona that week if I have them... or Buffalo. Ick.
I doubt Seattle has trouble at home with the 4-1 Cowboys but I don't see any reason to waste them in a matchup against an opponent that's actually good when other options remain on the table.
Some people will try to get cute and take the terrible Titans at home against the equally terrible Jaguars. I haven't gotten to Week 6 just to make a blunder of that magnitude. I already used up my crap team beats up on someone even worse card in Week 1 in some of my pools by taking the Jets... who haven't won since.
So yeah... I'm leaning Broncos with the rest of you guys as well. I'm glad San Diego's racking up wins against small fry competition because it forces Denver to continue playing lights out to keep pace. Don't want to have to worry about Peyton holding up once the cold weather hits, either.
gmoney56
Footballguy
We do a survival pool but its called a Marginal Pool.
Same rules as a survivor pool except you aren't eliminated if you make a wrong pick. (you just get minus points)
You need to pick the team that will have the biggest marginal win for that week. (the total difference between the winning team and the losing team.)
the person with the most points at the end of the year wins.
its makes it more exciting and takes more research to make your pick each week.
we have 48 player in the pool.
Wk1 - Philly 17 points
Wk2- GB 7 pts
Wk3 - Indy 27 pts
Wk4 - SD 19 pts
Wk5 - NO - 6 pts.
Im currently 2nd with +76 points
Same rules as a survivor pool except you aren't eliminated if you make a wrong pick. (you just get minus points)
You need to pick the team that will have the biggest marginal win for that week. (the total difference between the winning team and the losing team.)
the person with the most points at the end of the year wins.
its makes it more exciting and takes more research to make your pick each week.
we have 48 player in the pool.
Wk1 - Philly 17 points
Wk2- GB 7 pts
Wk3 - Indy 27 pts
Wk4 - SD 19 pts
Wk5 - NO - 6 pts.
Im currently 2nd with +76 points
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
I like the home teams whenever possible, so Cinci might be the bounce back special this week, or "spend" Seattle @ home.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Lurker/occassional poster here...FUBAR said:
You guys care to share your long range view?
Have 3 picks (from original number of 7) left in a pool that is down to around 1550 (with expected Seattle win tonight) from appx 5000. Survived with PHI, DAL, and PIT, though all made it more interesting than I would have liked. Unfortunate that some of my riskier picks that paid off initially went down (Tampa Bay singled handedly scrapped three of them in two weeks), as I have burned through more quality teams than I would have liked.
Pick 1: Pit, Den, NE/Cin, Bal, Phi
Pick 2: Phi, Den, NE/Ind, Mia, Pit
Pick 3: Den, GB, NE/Phi, Ind, Dal
Week 3, both picks had to survive (coming up again in weeks 13, 15, and 17)
Haven't started analysis on this week yet, but will weigh in.
Futz
Footballguy
Detroit, GB, NE, Indy, SD
I'm not digging the options this week and that's when I go conservative and Denver seems like the choice.
HOWEVER, I do like Arizona (home) vs Washington on a shortened week. Arizona stops the run well which makes Washington one dimensional and we just saw on MNF when that happens, Washington is very beatable. I just don't know that I can hitch my wagon to Stanton.
I'm not digging the options this week and that's when I go conservative and Denver seems like the choice.
HOWEVER, I do like Arizona (home) vs Washington on a shortened week. Arizona stops the run well which makes Washington one dimensional and we just saw on MNF when that happens, Washington is very beatable. I just don't know that I can hitch my wagon to Stanton.
Dark Matter
Footballguy
Especially if Stanton remains concussed.
Philly
GB
NE
SD
NO
Going with Cincinnati in a bounce back.
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
Already used Denver week 2, I'm going Chargers. After last weeks home win against the Bears, Carolina could carry some momentum into Cinci and play like the playoff team they were last year. I don't like divisional games or road games but San Diego has been rock solid and Oakland sucks.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
No love for Seattle? Dallas' defense is abysmal.
I like Seattle, but don't love them here. Still not quite sure about the prognosis on their defense -- was the SD game a simple road hiccup? Or a sign of bigger problems...Good Posting Judge said:
That, plus, I'm still not sure quite what we've got with Dallas. I don't think the O is less talented than SD's, and I'm baffled by their D. I'm planning to stay as far away from DAL games as possible all year.
I think Seattle wins, but I wouldn't want to be my season on it.While I'm not exactly a huge fan of division games or road games, I can't see a path to victory for OAK over SD this week. I'm doubting it'll end as blowout-y as I want to believe, but still, I can't see SD losing.
So...
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
WK 6: SD
Too risky for me, anyway.
In general, I don't believe in the idea of looking very far ahead in these things. All it takes is one key injury to any one team, any week, to turn a game you felt really confident about into a total coinflip, or a total coinflip into a game you suddenly feel really confident about. And in the NFL, those injuries happen pretty much weekly.
I'd rather take matchups I feel better about in the moment, and let the future play out as it will.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Thought about it but I'm not putting my suicide pool fortunes in the hands of Chuck Whitehurst.
I'm on Denver. I want to see Geno match points with Manning.
I'm on Denver. I want to see Geno match points with Manning.
GreenBaySnackers
Footballguy
freeannyong
Footballguy
Putting your season on SD @ OAK is crazy. These teams have a very ugly rivalry. It is not going to be a surprise if Oakland wins this game. Oakland +7 lock of the week.I like Seattle, but don't love them here. Still not quite sure about the prognosis on their defense -- was the SD game a simple road hiccup? Or a sign of bigger problems...That, plus, I'm still not sure quite what we've got with Dallas. I don't think the O is less talented than SD's, and I'm baffled by their D. I'm planning to stay as far away from DAL games as possible all year.
While I'm not exactly a huge fan of division games or road games, I can't see a path to victory for OAK over SD this week. I'm doubting it'll end as blowout-y as I want to believe, but still, I can't see SD losing.
So...
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
WK 6: SD
I am going with Seattle as them going 8-0 at home is a near lock.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Putting your season on SD @ OAK is crazy. These teams have a very ugly rivalry. It is not going to be a surprise if Oakland wins this game. Oakland +7 lock of the week.I like Seattle, but don't love them here. Still not quite sure about the prognosis on their defense -- was the SD game a simple road hiccup? Or a sign of bigger problems...
That, plus, I'm still not sure quite what we've got with Dallas. I don't think the O is less talented than SD's, and I'm baffled by their D. I'm planning to stay as far away from DAL games as possible all year.
While I'm not exactly a huge fan of division games or road games, I can't see a path to victory for OAK over SD this week. I'm doubting it'll end as blowout-y as I want to believe, but still, I can't see SD losing.
So...
WK 1: PIT
WK 2: DEN
WK 3: NE
WK 4: IND
WK 5: GB
WK 6: SD
I am going with Seattle as them going 8-0 at home is a near lock.
freeannyong
Footballguy
Raiders are 2-2 last 4 years at home against the chargers. They haven't exactly been good the last four years.
seahawk 17
Footballguy
I went with the Bengals, coming off an embarrassing loss and at home. I look for them to rebound.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
The Chargers were 7-9 in 2012 and both SD and Oakland were 8-8 in 2011. This is a new season and the Raiders are not very talented. Rivers could throw for 500 yards tomorrow if he felt like it.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Probably a decent pick but Carolina could beat or lose to, anyone this year.
Plus isn't Green out?
FUBAR
Footballguy
I'm a Titans fan and would have to consider using the Jags here if we had to use every team. Although it is in Nashville, so maybe...
Yes, it would be a surprise.
FUBAR
Footballguy
It's a work in progress, but right now:
6: DEN
7: NE
8: DAL
9: SEA
10: ARI
11: CHI
12: ATL
13: NYG
14: DET
15: KC
16: CAR
17: HOU
Baloney Sandwich
Footballguy
I've gone NYJ, GB, NO, SD, DEN so far but really struggling with my pick this week as I think I've changed my mind 4-5 times already. Thought about Cincy until knowing Green is out, thought about TEN and Arizona but both scare me for various reasons. Seattle could be the call but Dallas is playing well. Right now I have SF but don't like taking a road team, especially in a division game.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Thanks...as previously posted, not going to be able to follow your path based on prior usage, but good to see.
For this week with my three picks, going SEA, SD, and CIN. Sadly, all have future value, but don't have a great comfort level with other options (SF on road; TEN - buyer beware...got bounced last year from my pool picking Houston over Jacksonville at home....when it's two bad teams, one never knows the outcome.
My only alternate thought is AZ with Palmer starting. But nervous about how rusty he may be...what do others think???
4th&inches
Footballguy
Personally, i'm leaning to Cincy back at home vs. CAR or AZ vs. WAS with Palmer starting.
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