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2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
Also the delay of game on the first missed field goal.
Thanks for the save, I certainly needed it.
Looks like all of the early game favorites held serve this week. Leaving only Cleveland and Dallas to potentially trip people up.
EDIT: Browns deliver as well... just leaves the most heavily favored team of the week to come through on Monday night.
EDIT: Browns deliver as well... just leaves the most heavily favored team of the week to come through on Monday night.
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Looks like my Dolphins (as well as those people that took KC, CLE) are on a total free-roll!
LETS GO SKINS!!!
Dark Matter
Footballguy
The Cowboys losing took down all of my remaining opposition in one of my Eliminator pools this week.
Still waiting to hear back on my local one (which was already down to just me and one other guy).
7 teams still alive in the FBG pool on ESPN. Congrats to the survivors as we move on to Week 9.
Still waiting to hear back on my local one (which was already down to just me and one other guy).
7 teams still alive in the FBG pool on ESPN. Congrats to the survivors as we move on to Week 9.
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Time to cover the best Survival pool bets for Week 9...
Cincinnati - Briefly considered the best team in football after dominating terrible Falcons/Titans opposition at home, the Bengals 3-game winless skid brought them back to Earth before their crucial win against the Ravens in Week 8. Clearly Cincy plays much better at Paul Brown (where they have yet to be beaten) and on the menu this weekend are the 1-7 Jaguars who have lost 5 consecutive road games and whose only victories away from EverBank Field last season were against the 7-9 Titans, the 4-12 Browns and the 2-14 Texans. I'm sure we all consider Cincinnati to be better than those teams. Now it's likely they won't have A.J. Green back from his toe injury thanks to drawing the all-important Thursday divisional game Week 10 against the Browns. They'll want him healthy for that. And afterwards that they've only got Pittsburgh and Denver at home so you probably won't be using the Bengals at all unless you're saving them for a risky Week 13 road contest in Tampa Bay. The Jags haven't exactly been competitive on the road apart from when they faced Checkdown Charlie Whitehurst so I would expect this to be a relatively safe play. While Cincy did lose to the Chargers in the playoffs at home last season, they haven't lost at home in the regular season since getting edged out by Dallas by a single point in Week 14 of 2012 (a stretch spanning 13 games). Vegas currently has the Bengals favored by 12 points.
Cleveland - The Browns found a way to win against the Raiders in Week 8 (now winless in 16 games in the Eastern time zone). This despite still not solving their offensive line woes post-Alex Mack and tabulating a pathetic 39 rushing yards. They now face an equally pathetic Buccaneers squad that has surrendered a league worst 31.86 points per game. Now this might seem like a mismatch but I think I would still fade this contest. Since getting embarrassed by Atlanta, Tampa Bay has beaten the Steelers on the road and taken both the Saints and Vikings to overtime. And they get Charles Sims back this week to give them a competent run game. I would steer clear.
Kansas City - For those of you who are still alive and didn't take the Chiefs this week and still have them available, well Arrowhead beckons as Michael Vick will take a stab at being a QB again when the hapless Jets (losers of 7 straight) come to town. Alex Smith has settled back into the steady game manager role that he had last season as KC has won 4 of their last 5 including two decisive home victories over the Patriots and Rams by a combined score of 75-21. I would expect this contest to be just as lopsided. Kansas City is currently favored by 10 points. They still have two games left against Oakland so you may want to consider holding onto them for later.
San Francisco - This is another of those divisional games which seems to be an easy call on paper but may not work out that way in practice. The Rams are a complete mess thanks in large part to Schottenheimer's dreadful play calling. And now they've lost Brian Quick for the season. Meanwhile, the 49ers are well-rested coming off their bye week having won 3 straight against St. Louis. I mean, this is probably a safe game to pick but the Rams will keep the score close. San Fran is NOT running well (38 yards out of Gore led the team in their Week 6 victory) while every other team that has played St. Louis this season has destroyed them in the run game. The 49ers should be big favorites later this season at home against the Redskins in Week 12 and across the Bay in Oakland in Week 14 if you want to save them for later.
Seattle - The defending Super Bowl champs - at home again after losing for the first time at CenturyLink Field in a game that mattered since 2011 - are favored by 15 points against a winless Raiders team that has lost 13 consecutive games. Not only that but you have every reason to ride the Seachickens now because all that's enticing in their upcoming schedule is a Week 17 matchup against the Rams where they may be benching their starters and a not-as-desirable matchup hosting the Giants in Week 10. Now I'm not saying you should worry about New York because they've also hit the skids and will be coming off a short week (they host the Colts in the Monday nighter) but there are LOTS of choice matchups in Week 10 - so why not take the sure thing here?
Cincinnati - Briefly considered the best team in football after dominating terrible Falcons/Titans opposition at home, the Bengals 3-game winless skid brought them back to Earth before their crucial win against the Ravens in Week 8. Clearly Cincy plays much better at Paul Brown (where they have yet to be beaten) and on the menu this weekend are the 1-7 Jaguars who have lost 5 consecutive road games and whose only victories away from EverBank Field last season were against the 7-9 Titans, the 4-12 Browns and the 2-14 Texans. I'm sure we all consider Cincinnati to be better than those teams. Now it's likely they won't have A.J. Green back from his toe injury thanks to drawing the all-important Thursday divisional game Week 10 against the Browns. They'll want him healthy for that. And afterwards that they've only got Pittsburgh and Denver at home so you probably won't be using the Bengals at all unless you're saving them for a risky Week 13 road contest in Tampa Bay. The Jags haven't exactly been competitive on the road apart from when they faced Checkdown Charlie Whitehurst so I would expect this to be a relatively safe play. While Cincy did lose to the Chargers in the playoffs at home last season, they haven't lost at home in the regular season since getting edged out by Dallas by a single point in Week 14 of 2012 (a stretch spanning 13 games). Vegas currently has the Bengals favored by 12 points.
Cleveland - The Browns found a way to win against the Raiders in Week 8 (now winless in 16 games in the Eastern time zone). This despite still not solving their offensive line woes post-Alex Mack and tabulating a pathetic 39 rushing yards. They now face an equally pathetic Buccaneers squad that has surrendered a league worst 31.86 points per game. Now this might seem like a mismatch but I think I would still fade this contest. Since getting embarrassed by Atlanta, Tampa Bay has beaten the Steelers on the road and taken both the Saints and Vikings to overtime. And they get Charles Sims back this week to give them a competent run game. I would steer clear.
Kansas City - For those of you who are still alive and didn't take the Chiefs this week and still have them available, well Arrowhead beckons as Michael Vick will take a stab at being a QB again when the hapless Jets (losers of 7 straight) come to town. Alex Smith has settled back into the steady game manager role that he had last season as KC has won 4 of their last 5 including two decisive home victories over the Patriots and Rams by a combined score of 75-21. I would expect this contest to be just as lopsided. Kansas City is currently favored by 10 points. They still have two games left against Oakland so you may want to consider holding onto them for later.
San Francisco - This is another of those divisional games which seems to be an easy call on paper but may not work out that way in practice. The Rams are a complete mess thanks in large part to Schottenheimer's dreadful play calling. And now they've lost Brian Quick for the season. Meanwhile, the 49ers are well-rested coming off their bye week having won 3 straight against St. Louis. I mean, this is probably a safe game to pick but the Rams will keep the score close. San Fran is NOT running well (38 yards out of Gore led the team in their Week 6 victory) while every other team that has played St. Louis this season has destroyed them in the run game. The 49ers should be big favorites later this season at home against the Redskins in Week 12 and across the Bay in Oakland in Week 14 if you want to save them for later.
Seattle - The defending Super Bowl champs - at home again after losing for the first time at CenturyLink Field in a game that mattered since 2011 - are favored by 15 points against a winless Raiders team that has lost 13 consecutive games. Not only that but you have every reason to ride the Seachickens now because all that's enticing in their upcoming schedule is a Week 17 matchup against the Rams where they may be benching their starters and a not-as-desirable matchup hosting the Giants in Week 10. Now I'm not saying you should worry about New York because they've also hit the skids and will be coming off a short week (they host the Colts in the Monday nighter) but there are LOTS of choice matchups in Week 10 - so why not take the sure thing here?
FUBAR
Footballguy
Pipes
Footballguy
Going Sea here since I still have them left. KC scares me since they are not an offensive juggernaut by any means and Vick is the type that can catch lightning in a bottle. It's doubtful but still somewhat frightening.FUBAR said:
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Going SEA in the pool where I have them available and CIN in the pool where I already used SEA. Saving KC, who still gets to play OAK twice. (As much as I hate taking division games, as the season goes on, you have less of a choice about these things.)
I warned of Seattle against St. Louis two weeks ago, and I warned about Dallas at home to Washington this past week. This weeks warning forecast: KC Chiefs! Avoid at all costs! Vick will come in and catch alot of people off guard. The Jets are playing for Rex Ryans job, and I fully expect them to keep this alot closer than the Chiefs - 10 line indicates. Just a heads up.
Going with Seattle this week. Safest bet on the board.
Good luck.
Going with Seattle this week. Safest bet on the board.
Good luck.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Agree! Going Seattle all day. After that, cincy, San Francisco, and Cleveland would be other picks.J-LEW said:
FUBAR
Footballguy
True, Cincy or Seattle would be easy picks if available. Think I'm sticking with KC but will consider others.
I'd like to use Cleveland but that team scares me.
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
I am going Cincinatti as I feel they have no value after this week. Perhaps next week against Cleveland, but those Thursday night games scare me and inter-division games scare me, especially in that division. Not to mention in my pool you can't use the Thursday game. So this all has me leaning towards Cincinatti over KC and Seattle.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Cinci also is the 2nd biggest favorite of the week after the probably already used Seattle. Hard to see the Jags coming in there and winning.
higgins
Footballguy
CIN plays TB in week 13, and we have a better idea that AJ will be back healthy by then.
djjosee
Footballguy
So 3 people left and was going to go Seattle. Noticed that the other two already used KC (last week) and will most likely pick Seattle as well, would this information make you change and go with KC and hope to win it out or do you take Seattle across the board and move on to week 10?
Am I over-thinking this?
Am I over-thinking this?
Over-thinking it in my opinion. Take Seattle and move on. Even if you go KC, and they both go Seattle, the risk of Jets and Seattle winning (thus knocking me out), would be too great for me to even consider that strategy. Do as you wish! Good luck!
THIS. Currently I have Cinci plugged in for week 13 @ Tampa Bay. Sure its a road game, but we will know alot more as to the health of AJ Green. Sure, without AJ Green the Bengals should probably still handle the Jags, but why risk it? Take Seattle this week which is a monster LOCK, and worry about take the Bengals later on.
If your interested, I have penciled in the following:
week 9 - Seattle over Oakland
week 10 - Baltimore over Tenne
week 11- Wash over Tampa
week 12- Indy over Jags
week 13 - Cinci over Tampa
week 14 - Lions over Tampa
week 15 - KC over Oakland
I don't have the arrogance to presume I'll still be alive in Week 17 to bother saving a team for then. Especially when the dynamics of whether that game will mean anything or essentially be an exhibition contest are factored in.
Pipes
Footballguy
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
FUBAR
Footballguy
r0llin_game
Footballguy
I chopped a pool in like '07? We had just a bit under 500 people and we got to week 16 with 24 entrants, had 16 knocked out, and only lost two others after we split most of the pool eight ways.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Same weeks 9 and 10.
11 - Houston over Cleveland or Chicago over Minnesota
12 - SF over Washington
13 - Arizona over Atlanta
14 - Detroit over Tampa
15 - Cincy over Cleveland (thinking Johnny is starting by this point)
16 - Carolina over Cleveland
17 - Dallas over Washington in the rematch
Really don't like week 11, no games look like good bets right now.
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
It's also three strikes and you're out. So the strategy definitely needs to be a bit different. Teams reset for the playoffs. Every year (6th year) at least one person has made it through 17 weeks without a strike, that I can remember. One year a girl picked all 17 and the playoffs without 1 strike. A girl!
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I can see zero people getting eliminated in the next two weeks, and then week 11 having a few people get knocked out because of the ugly games on the schedule. I was also looking at Chicago over Minni originally, but with how awful the Bears have been playing lately, I really double guessed myself.Same weeks 9 and 10.
11 - Houston over Cleveland or Chicago over Minnesota
12 - SF over Washington
13 - Arizona over Atlanta
14 - Detroit over Tampa
15 - Cincy over Cleveland (thinking Johnny is starting by this point)
16 - Carolina over Cleveland
17 - Dallas over Washington in the rematch
Really don't like week 11, no games look like good bets right now.
Why are you not taking Indy over Jags in week 12 when he has virtually owned the Jags over his entire career, and this game is in INDY too??
FUBAR
Footballguy
I used Indy already.I can see zero people getting eliminated in the next two weeks, and then week 11 having a few people get knocked out because of the ugly games on the schedule. I was also looking at Chicago over Minni originally, but with how awful the Bears have been playing lately, I really double guessed myself.Same weeks 9 and 10.
11 - Houston over Cleveland or Chicago over Minnesota
12 - SF over Washington
13 - Arizona over Atlanta
14 - Detroit over Tampa
15 - Cincy over Cleveland (thinking Johnny is starting by this point)
16 - Carolina over Cleveland
17 - Dallas over Washington in the rematch
Really don't like week 11, no games look like good bets right now.
Why are you not taking Indy over Jags in week 12 when he has virtually owned the Jags over his entire career, and this game is in INDY too??
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Got Seattle today and Baltimore next week. See everybody in 2 weeks when it gets interesting.
FUBAR
Footballguy
r0llin_game
Footballguy
I've got SD in both of my pools too.
Took KC and SF. If Romo is back, looking at..
Dallas x2
SD x2
SF/Philly
Cincy x2
Den x2
Balt x2
Mia x2
Sea x2
Here's to hoping that can hold for my partners and I.
Given how much of an embarrassing performance they put on today in Miami perhaps that isn't such a slam dunk victory after their bye. But I think I'd still trust San Diego over anything else in Week 11.FUBAR said:
We lost Overland Park Jayhawk from the FBG Eliminator Challenge group on ESPN this weekend as the 49ers failed to deliver at home against those always stubborn Rams. We're down to 7 teams left alive with 8 weeks to go.
Time to cover the best Survival pool bets for Week 10...
Denver - Of the 7 owners hanging in there in the FBG Eliminator Challenge group, only TarheelAlan has managed the 9-week journey without taking the Broncos. And the nice thing about Denver is they have a smorgasbord of ideal opportunities to use them lined up the rest of the way... although I would still advise against waiting too long. Old Man Peyton doesn't like that cold weather and took another frosty hit in the loss column just this past weekend. Of course, the Broncos would probably trounce these winless Raiders in a sub-zero blizzard with Brock Osweiler as the starting quarterback. The toasty temps in the upper-70s and the Oakland sunshine will suit Manning just fine so you may want to use them here. If not, he gets to beat up on the Rams in a dome in Week 11. I'd be a little more leery about those other "blowouts on paper" in Week 12 against Miami, Week 14 against Buffalo and Week 17 against Oakland. (Well, okay, maybe not that last one.)
Green Bay - TarheelAlan is once again the only remaining holdout who has kept the Packers available for Survival Pool use. They remain unbeaten at Lambeau Field on the season and return from their bye week to host a struggling Bears team that is in disarray on both sides of the field... albeit one that seems to play better away from the bright lights and pressure of the home Chicago crowd. Despite being favored by over a touchdown, this is one divisional rivalry I'd rather not test in this format... the road team has won the past 3 times these teams have squared off. The Pack have enticing matchups ahead hosting the Falcons in Week 14 and visiting Tampa Bay in Week 16.
Seattle - carmieadkins still has the defending Super Bowl champs in his holster electing not to burn them this week against the Raiders. They host the G-Men on a short week who just got obliterated at home by the Colts. You're either using them now or waiting until the final weekend of the season to roll the dice in a game that may be played by backups. Given that choice, I'd rather use them now.
Philadelphia - We haven't talked about the Eagles much in this thread despite their impressive 6-2 record and their 8-game regular season home winning streak. Most of you used them in Week 1 against the Jaguars. And the reward that carmieadkins and myself have been given for keeping them available... is the return of Mark Sanchez? Yay? The Panthers should pose very little threat having won just once since Week 2 and only beating terrible Tampa Bay on the road but I'm not ballsy enough to take the Sanchize's team in his first start as an Eagle. Would rather save Philly for Week 12 against the Titans when we'll have a better idea that transition at QB has gone smoothly.
Pittsburgh - Is there a hotter passing offense in the NFL than the Steelers? Probably not. That feeble Jets secondary certainly doesn't scare them. And yet Pittsburgh is the kind of team that plays up to - or down to - their level of competition. They're the kind of team that can blow out a Super Bowl contender one week and then struggle against the Jags or Bucs the next. 3 of the 7 surviving owners in FBG's Eliminator Challenge pool have the Steel Curtain still available - PhillyBlood, austins7601 and carmieadkins. Pitt's future schedule is kind of ugly and there's certainly nothing you'd feel as good about as taking them here... then again, given what I just stated above, an ugly schedule is probably a "good" thing for a team that plays up to their level of competition. That home matchup against the Saints in Week 13 certainly doesn't scare me. Have you seen New Orleans on the road this year? (Well, okay, they did just beat Carolina but they're practically neighbors.) I would exercise EXTREME caution with this matchup - especially now that both Shazier and Polamalu have already been ruled out.
New Orleans - Might as well transition into talking about the Saints because they're NOT on the road this week. They're in the welcoming confines of the SuperDome where they've won 11 consecutive games - which includes a game against their opposition this week (the 49ers) in Week 11 of last season. That's a streak that will be put to the test the next three weeks by San Fran, Cincy and Baltimore and I'm fairly certain I'd hold off on using the Saints until after that string of games if I still had them. I don't, however - used them up against the Bucs in Week 5 as did carmieadkins and austins7601. Probably better to keep them on hand for some of those weak divisional opponents (this division's so bad you WANT to play divisional games in Eliminator) in Carolina and Atlanta in Weeks 14 & 16, respectively. They also get to visit the Bucs in Week 17 - don't foresee too many benched starters for that game, either.
Baltimore - 5 of the 7 surviving owners still have the Ravens at their disposal (both PhillyBlood and myself used them in Week 7 against those woeful-on-the-road Falcons). At first glance, this matchup against the Titans appears inviting. Baltimore will be cranky after getting abused by Big Ben and his 6 passing scores and Tennessee hasn't been able to beat anyone except Jacksonville since the opening week of the season. You know the Ravens don't want to head into their bye week where they stand right now - dead last in the AFC North. And yet Tenny has had two weeks to prepare and perhaps Mettenberger will play with poise after getting the butterflies of his first start out of his system. I've stressed before that Baltimore is one of the best home teams in the league when it comes to consistently racking up wins so this should be safe. That Week 15 matchup where they host the Jags is probably even safer. Vegas currently has them favored by 10 points.
Might as well start talking about teams I may actually use this week...
Cincinnati - Only carmieadkins and TarheelAlan have used up Cincy at this point and they draw the tasty Thursday night matchup against the Browns. As a rule, I'd prefer to avoid divisional Thursday games and that doesn't really change this week. Green won't be on as much of a snap count. Bernard will likely still be out but Cincy can run just fine leaning on Hill. Cleveland can't run at all no matter who they lean on. And Hoyer's safety valve in Hawkins got himself nicked up last week. I think Cleveland's 5-3 record is rather spurious - the problems that were exposed in that Jacksonville loss remain. They just haven't had to face capable competition to expose those flaws. Oooh... they beat Oakland and Tampa Bay at home and their combined 1 win between them. Am I supposed to be impressed by that? I'm not. The upcoming sched for Cincinnati isn't rife with opportunity. They draw those terrible Bucs on the road in Week 13... so there's that.
Arizona - The Cardinals have the best record in football right now at 7-1... their only loss coming on the road in Denver (and who doesn't lose in Denver?) Well, okay, the Chargers didn't lose in Denver in that Thursday night game last season that bounced a bunch of Peyton Manning owners from the fantasy playoffs... but, apart from that, it's a pretty rare event. And while this IS a divisional game, it's also the best matchup remaining on the Cards schedule... and, in this instance, everyone BUT TarheelAlan has Arizona still in play. These Rams are a tenacious lot. They're the textbook example of a team you don't bet against in division games. They've beaten Seattle. They've beaten San Francisco at Levi's Stadium. Why in the world would we think Arizona is any more invulnerable and worthy of being favored by 7.5 points? Well, let me tell you why - and I'm going to employ the same approach I used to discourage you from taking San Fran last week. The Cardinals ARE built to run - running the ball down their throats won't be a problem for Arizona the way it was for the 49ers. They've got Ellington and have no qualms about giving him the ball 30 times if needed. And in order to beat the Cardinals, you need to be able to throw because you can't run against them (something even the mighty Dallas running attack struggled with this week). Austin Davis hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in his past three starts.
Dallas - Everyone BUT carmieadkins still has the Cowboys in play - and we were probably feeling pretty good about keeping them secure for this London matchup against the Jaguars. And then Tony Romo had to get himself hurt. It's likely that he returns this week and this isn't exactly a matchup that should scare anybody. Jacksonville has lost 6 straight away from EverBank Field and only shocked the Browns this season when the reality of trying to run the ball in the post-Alex Mack era smacked them right in the face. The 'Boys have the best line in football and the Jags can't be too keen on making the first of what will be MANY trips for them to their new home away from home in Wembley Stadium. If you're deciding between Dallas, Baltimore and Arizona as the majority of us are - there is literally nothing appetizing in the future on Dallas' schedule to look forward to. We either use them here or we don't use them at all. And you can't use them if Weeden starts. I'm not sure there's much else left to say.
Tampa Bay - Hey, the Falcons are visiting. That's an instant-win for the home team. Time to use the Buccaneers! Yeah, I don't think so...
As for right now, I'm leaning Dallas if Romo doesn't have any question marks during practice this week. If he does, I'll take the Cardinals instead.
Denver - Of the 7 owners hanging in there in the FBG Eliminator Challenge group, only TarheelAlan has managed the 9-week journey without taking the Broncos. And the nice thing about Denver is they have a smorgasbord of ideal opportunities to use them lined up the rest of the way... although I would still advise against waiting too long. Old Man Peyton doesn't like that cold weather and took another frosty hit in the loss column just this past weekend. Of course, the Broncos would probably trounce these winless Raiders in a sub-zero blizzard with Brock Osweiler as the starting quarterback. The toasty temps in the upper-70s and the Oakland sunshine will suit Manning just fine so you may want to use them here. If not, he gets to beat up on the Rams in a dome in Week 11. I'd be a little more leery about those other "blowouts on paper" in Week 12 against Miami, Week 14 against Buffalo and Week 17 against Oakland. (Well, okay, maybe not that last one.)
Green Bay - TarheelAlan is once again the only remaining holdout who has kept the Packers available for Survival Pool use. They remain unbeaten at Lambeau Field on the season and return from their bye week to host a struggling Bears team that is in disarray on both sides of the field... albeit one that seems to play better away from the bright lights and pressure of the home Chicago crowd. Despite being favored by over a touchdown, this is one divisional rivalry I'd rather not test in this format... the road team has won the past 3 times these teams have squared off. The Pack have enticing matchups ahead hosting the Falcons in Week 14 and visiting Tampa Bay in Week 16.
Seattle - carmieadkins still has the defending Super Bowl champs in his holster electing not to burn them this week against the Raiders. They host the G-Men on a short week who just got obliterated at home by the Colts. You're either using them now or waiting until the final weekend of the season to roll the dice in a game that may be played by backups. Given that choice, I'd rather use them now.
Philadelphia - We haven't talked about the Eagles much in this thread despite their impressive 6-2 record and their 8-game regular season home winning streak. Most of you used them in Week 1 against the Jaguars. And the reward that carmieadkins and myself have been given for keeping them available... is the return of Mark Sanchez? Yay? The Panthers should pose very little threat having won just once since Week 2 and only beating terrible Tampa Bay on the road but I'm not ballsy enough to take the Sanchize's team in his first start as an Eagle. Would rather save Philly for Week 12 against the Titans when we'll have a better idea that transition at QB has gone smoothly.
Pittsburgh - Is there a hotter passing offense in the NFL than the Steelers? Probably not. That feeble Jets secondary certainly doesn't scare them. And yet Pittsburgh is the kind of team that plays up to - or down to - their level of competition. They're the kind of team that can blow out a Super Bowl contender one week and then struggle against the Jags or Bucs the next. 3 of the 7 surviving owners in FBG's Eliminator Challenge pool have the Steel Curtain still available - PhillyBlood, austins7601 and carmieadkins. Pitt's future schedule is kind of ugly and there's certainly nothing you'd feel as good about as taking them here... then again, given what I just stated above, an ugly schedule is probably a "good" thing for a team that plays up to their level of competition. That home matchup against the Saints in Week 13 certainly doesn't scare me. Have you seen New Orleans on the road this year? (Well, okay, they did just beat Carolina but they're practically neighbors.) I would exercise EXTREME caution with this matchup - especially now that both Shazier and Polamalu have already been ruled out.
New Orleans - Might as well transition into talking about the Saints because they're NOT on the road this week. They're in the welcoming confines of the SuperDome where they've won 11 consecutive games - which includes a game against their opposition this week (the 49ers) in Week 11 of last season. That's a streak that will be put to the test the next three weeks by San Fran, Cincy and Baltimore and I'm fairly certain I'd hold off on using the Saints until after that string of games if I still had them. I don't, however - used them up against the Bucs in Week 5 as did carmieadkins and austins7601. Probably better to keep them on hand for some of those weak divisional opponents (this division's so bad you WANT to play divisional games in Eliminator) in Carolina and Atlanta in Weeks 14 & 16, respectively. They also get to visit the Bucs in Week 17 - don't foresee too many benched starters for that game, either.
Baltimore - 5 of the 7 surviving owners still have the Ravens at their disposal (both PhillyBlood and myself used them in Week 7 against those woeful-on-the-road Falcons). At first glance, this matchup against the Titans appears inviting. Baltimore will be cranky after getting abused by Big Ben and his 6 passing scores and Tennessee hasn't been able to beat anyone except Jacksonville since the opening week of the season. You know the Ravens don't want to head into their bye week where they stand right now - dead last in the AFC North. And yet Tenny has had two weeks to prepare and perhaps Mettenberger will play with poise after getting the butterflies of his first start out of his system. I've stressed before that Baltimore is one of the best home teams in the league when it comes to consistently racking up wins so this should be safe. That Week 15 matchup where they host the Jags is probably even safer. Vegas currently has them favored by 10 points.
Might as well start talking about teams I may actually use this week...
Cincinnati - Only carmieadkins and TarheelAlan have used up Cincy at this point and they draw the tasty Thursday night matchup against the Browns. As a rule, I'd prefer to avoid divisional Thursday games and that doesn't really change this week. Green won't be on as much of a snap count. Bernard will likely still be out but Cincy can run just fine leaning on Hill. Cleveland can't run at all no matter who they lean on. And Hoyer's safety valve in Hawkins got himself nicked up last week. I think Cleveland's 5-3 record is rather spurious - the problems that were exposed in that Jacksonville loss remain. They just haven't had to face capable competition to expose those flaws. Oooh... they beat Oakland and Tampa Bay at home and their combined 1 win between them. Am I supposed to be impressed by that? I'm not. The upcoming sched for Cincinnati isn't rife with opportunity. They draw those terrible Bucs on the road in Week 13... so there's that.
Arizona - The Cardinals have the best record in football right now at 7-1... their only loss coming on the road in Denver (and who doesn't lose in Denver?) Well, okay, the Chargers didn't lose in Denver in that Thursday night game last season that bounced a bunch of Peyton Manning owners from the fantasy playoffs... but, apart from that, it's a pretty rare event. And while this IS a divisional game, it's also the best matchup remaining on the Cards schedule... and, in this instance, everyone BUT TarheelAlan has Arizona still in play. These Rams are a tenacious lot. They're the textbook example of a team you don't bet against in division games. They've beaten Seattle. They've beaten San Francisco at Levi's Stadium. Why in the world would we think Arizona is any more invulnerable and worthy of being favored by 7.5 points? Well, let me tell you why - and I'm going to employ the same approach I used to discourage you from taking San Fran last week. The Cardinals ARE built to run - running the ball down their throats won't be a problem for Arizona the way it was for the 49ers. They've got Ellington and have no qualms about giving him the ball 30 times if needed. And in order to beat the Cardinals, you need to be able to throw because you can't run against them (something even the mighty Dallas running attack struggled with this week). Austin Davis hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in his past three starts.
Dallas - Everyone BUT carmieadkins still has the Cowboys in play - and we were probably feeling pretty good about keeping them secure for this London matchup against the Jaguars. And then Tony Romo had to get himself hurt. It's likely that he returns this week and this isn't exactly a matchup that should scare anybody. Jacksonville has lost 6 straight away from EverBank Field and only shocked the Browns this season when the reality of trying to run the ball in the post-Alex Mack era smacked them right in the face. The 'Boys have the best line in football and the Jags can't be too keen on making the first of what will be MANY trips for them to their new home away from home in Wembley Stadium. If you're deciding between Dallas, Baltimore and Arizona as the majority of us are - there is literally nothing appetizing in the future on Dallas' schedule to look forward to. We either use them here or we don't use them at all. And you can't use them if Weeden starts. I'm not sure there's much else left to say.
Tampa Bay - Hey, the Falcons are visiting. That's an instant-win for the home team. Time to use the Buccaneers! Yeah, I don't think so...
As for right now, I'm leaning Dallas if Romo doesn't have any question marks during practice this week. If he does, I'll take the Cardinals instead.
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Pipes
Footballguy
great write up as always. I had Dallas penciled into this spot for a while but am having doubts. Eagle and Bengals are my next best available teams. Hate the thought of relying on Sanchez even though Carolina has been terrible so far. I also hate divisional games but I'm leaning towards the Bengals based on the QB injuries to Romo/Foles.Lascelle said:
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Held off on Baltimore in week 7 and had a heart attack with buffalo at home against Minnesota. However, today I get to reap the benefits using Baltimore against tenn. Next week looks really difficult though.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I've gone back and forth between DAL and PIT but assuming Romo plays I will use DAL and save PIT for next week. Already used BAL and don't want to take any NFC West divisional games.
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