FUBAR
Footballguy
If this game were in the states and romo were healthy, it would be easy. But I'd avoid it now.
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2014 Suicide Pool Strategy Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter massraider
- Start date
PhillyBlood failed to adhere to the above warning about the Steelers and paid the consequences.
Congratulations to everyone else on advancing! We're now down to the Final 6 in FBG's Eliminator Challenge group.
7 weeks to go. 6 players remaining in the FBG Suicide Pool contest. Here's an early look at Week 11...
San Diego - While the rest of the Top 6 burned up the Chargers back in Week 4 against Jacksonville, I've been saving them for just this occasion. Now it's not like San Diego has looked all that great of late. Losing 3 straight prior to their bye and allowing the Chiefs to leapfrog them in the standings. The logjam of .600+ teams in the AFC North can't be too appealing for Wild Card chasers, either. I certainly wouldn't feel confident taking San Diego to beat the tenacious Rams next week no matter how much they're favored. The two weeks of prep to face a winless Raiders team at home that just got demolished by the Broncos certainly doesn't give the Chargers any room for excuses should they fail to show up. Both Detroit and Jacksonville managed to lose to winless teams following their bye weeks back in 2009 (the last time this happened - both in Week 8 oddly enough) but San Diego looks to be a far more capable squad than those teams were even if Oakland had their best game of the season to date against the Chargers when they only lost by a field goal following their own bye week in Week 6. The Raiders have now lost 15 straight games dating back to last year (2 of those games to San Diego). San Diego should be getting Ryan Mathews back for this game as well.
Denver - TarheelAlan continues to save the Broncos for a rainy day while he waits for the teams below him to gradually fall by the wayside. In the absence of better options that rainy day may well be this week. The Dolphins have been playing everyone tough since Week 4 leaving games against the Bills in Week 14 and the Raiders in Week 17 as the surest bets to use Denver. TarheelAlan has the Packers (hosting those terrible-on-the-road Falcons) in reserve for Week 14 and I wouldn't trust a Week 17 matchup that may be meaningless unless New England and the 6-3 teams continue to keep the Broncos motivated. Austin Davis may have finally managed to eclipse 200 passing yards this week but he simply doesn't have the firepower to keep pace with the horses.
New Orleans - Can you really feel good about taking an NFC South team to win right now? The Saints at least had that Superdome mystique going for them but even that's no longer something you can invest in after the 49ers just ended their 11-game home unbeaten streak in overtime. Now they host a listless Bengals team that looked like an absolute mess on Thursday night against the Browns but they will have had a full 10 days to regroup and may have Gio Bernard back in the lineup as well. TarheelAlan, OZJHawk and DharmaBums07 might entertain taking New Orleans in Eliminator this week but I wouldn't feel great about it. AFC North teams are a combined 7-1-1 against the NFC South this season.
Washington - The Redskins are presently favored by a touchdown at home over the Buccaneers. Good news - they're available for everyone to use and you'll never want to pick them again. Bad news - they're still the Washington Redskins. While they've been competitive in the three games since ending their 4-game losing skid at the start of the season, all of those games have been decided by a field goal. No reason to figure this outcome will be any different - you'll be holding your breath deep into the 4th quarter. The one saving grace is that Washington has had a full two weeks to prep for this game as they're coming off their bye.
Pittsburgh - Remember what I said about the Steelers "playing down to bad competition"? Well, the Titans offer just that in the Monday nighter. austins7601 and carmieadkins can learn the lesson from PhillyBlood or doom themselves to repeat the same mistake.
Miami - This is the pick I'm advocating for anyone that doesn't have San Diego or Denver available and hasn't used up the Dolphins yet (OZJHawk will need to look elsewhere). Granted, this is the weekly Thursday night divisional circus game (something I've traditionally discouraged from being played in Eliminator) - and the Bills are 3-1 on the road - and they've won 3 straight against Miami including a 29-10 spanking in Week 2 - but FJax and Watkins are clearly nowhere close to 100% and the short week won't help their recovery. Of course, Miller isn't close to being healthy either and they just lost Branden Albert for the season - but Miami's defense is formidable and they clearly have the edge in the passing game with Wallace and Clay receiving passes over whatever Buffalo trots out there. The Bills have been notoriously awful in prime-time night games having lost 11 straight before breaking that streak against these very same Dolphins in 2012. This game will be low-scoring but the Dolphins should find a way to persevere.
San Francisco - The 49ers will follow up their OT win in New Orleans with a trip to MetLife Stadium to play the G-Men (losers of 4 straight - albeit to some of the best teams in the league). This may appear to be a relatively safe matchup on paper given how terrible the Giants have been over the past month but I would expect a letdown by San Fran following their big win against the Saints and the absence of Patrick Willis will undoubtedly hurt if Eli decides to start peppering Larry Donnell the way he did at the start of this season. They're likely getting Rashad Jennings back from injury as well. On the bright side, Aldon Smith will return to San Francisco this week having served the balance of his suspension.
Cleveland - They didn't exactly solve their post-Alex Mack woes in Week 10 against Cincinnati - although they certainly tried by rushing the ball an insane 52 times with Hawkins out of the lineup - but they certainly didn't need to. The Browns defense stepped up in a big way to improve their record to 6-3. They've only lost once at FirstEnergy Stadium (by 2 points to the Ravens back in Week 3) and now entertain the Texans. I think Cleveland is usable this week IF Foster doesn't play. And this is still somewhat risky given that the Texans are coming off a bye and are trotting out Ryan Mallett as their new starting QB. But if Foster is removed from the equation, I like the Browns more than some of the teams I've already talked about - especially if they get Hawkins and Cameron back. Trying to run against the Texans is not a smart idea - which, of course, means Cleveland will try to run another 50+ times.
Carolina - Hey, the Falcons are visiting. That's an instant-win for the home team. Time to use the Panthers! Yeah, I don't think so...
San Diego - While the rest of the Top 6 burned up the Chargers back in Week 4 against Jacksonville, I've been saving them for just this occasion. Now it's not like San Diego has looked all that great of late. Losing 3 straight prior to their bye and allowing the Chiefs to leapfrog them in the standings. The logjam of .600+ teams in the AFC North can't be too appealing for Wild Card chasers, either. I certainly wouldn't feel confident taking San Diego to beat the tenacious Rams next week no matter how much they're favored. The two weeks of prep to face a winless Raiders team at home that just got demolished by the Broncos certainly doesn't give the Chargers any room for excuses should they fail to show up. Both Detroit and Jacksonville managed to lose to winless teams following their bye weeks back in 2009 (the last time this happened - both in Week 8 oddly enough) but San Diego looks to be a far more capable squad than those teams were even if Oakland had their best game of the season to date against the Chargers when they only lost by a field goal following their own bye week in Week 6. The Raiders have now lost 15 straight games dating back to last year (2 of those games to San Diego). San Diego should be getting Ryan Mathews back for this game as well.
Denver - TarheelAlan continues to save the Broncos for a rainy day while he waits for the teams below him to gradually fall by the wayside. In the absence of better options that rainy day may well be this week. The Dolphins have been playing everyone tough since Week 4 leaving games against the Bills in Week 14 and the Raiders in Week 17 as the surest bets to use Denver. TarheelAlan has the Packers (hosting those terrible-on-the-road Falcons) in reserve for Week 14 and I wouldn't trust a Week 17 matchup that may be meaningless unless New England and the 6-3 teams continue to keep the Broncos motivated. Austin Davis may have finally managed to eclipse 200 passing yards this week but he simply doesn't have the firepower to keep pace with the horses.
New Orleans - Can you really feel good about taking an NFC South team to win right now? The Saints at least had that Superdome mystique going for them but even that's no longer something you can invest in after the 49ers just ended their 11-game home unbeaten streak in overtime. Now they host a listless Bengals team that looked like an absolute mess on Thursday night against the Browns but they will have had a full 10 days to regroup and may have Gio Bernard back in the lineup as well. TarheelAlan, OZJHawk and DharmaBums07 might entertain taking New Orleans in Eliminator this week but I wouldn't feel great about it. AFC North teams are a combined 7-1-1 against the NFC South this season.
Washington - The Redskins are presently favored by a touchdown at home over the Buccaneers. Good news - they're available for everyone to use and you'll never want to pick them again. Bad news - they're still the Washington Redskins. While they've been competitive in the three games since ending their 4-game losing skid at the start of the season, all of those games have been decided by a field goal. No reason to figure this outcome will be any different - you'll be holding your breath deep into the 4th quarter. The one saving grace is that Washington has had a full two weeks to prep for this game as they're coming off their bye.
Pittsburgh - Remember what I said about the Steelers "playing down to bad competition"? Well, the Titans offer just that in the Monday nighter. austins7601 and carmieadkins can learn the lesson from PhillyBlood or doom themselves to repeat the same mistake.
Miami - This is the pick I'm advocating for anyone that doesn't have San Diego or Denver available and hasn't used up the Dolphins yet (OZJHawk will need to look elsewhere). Granted, this is the weekly Thursday night divisional circus game (something I've traditionally discouraged from being played in Eliminator) - and the Bills are 3-1 on the road - and they've won 3 straight against Miami including a 29-10 spanking in Week 2 - but FJax and Watkins are clearly nowhere close to 100% and the short week won't help their recovery. Of course, Miller isn't close to being healthy either and they just lost Branden Albert for the season - but Miami's defense is formidable and they clearly have the edge in the passing game with Wallace and Clay receiving passes over whatever Buffalo trots out there. The Bills have been notoriously awful in prime-time night games having lost 11 straight before breaking that streak against these very same Dolphins in 2012. This game will be low-scoring but the Dolphins should find a way to persevere.
San Francisco - The 49ers will follow up their OT win in New Orleans with a trip to MetLife Stadium to play the G-Men (losers of 4 straight - albeit to some of the best teams in the league). This may appear to be a relatively safe matchup on paper given how terrible the Giants have been over the past month but I would expect a letdown by San Fran following their big win against the Saints and the absence of Patrick Willis will undoubtedly hurt if Eli decides to start peppering Larry Donnell the way he did at the start of this season. They're likely getting Rashad Jennings back from injury as well. On the bright side, Aldon Smith will return to San Francisco this week having served the balance of his suspension.
Cleveland - They didn't exactly solve their post-Alex Mack woes in Week 10 against Cincinnati - although they certainly tried by rushing the ball an insane 52 times with Hawkins out of the lineup - but they certainly didn't need to. The Browns defense stepped up in a big way to improve their record to 6-3. They've only lost once at FirstEnergy Stadium (by 2 points to the Ravens back in Week 3) and now entertain the Texans. I think Cleveland is usable this week IF Foster doesn't play. And this is still somewhat risky given that the Texans are coming off a bye and are trotting out Ryan Mallett as their new starting QB. But if Foster is removed from the equation, I like the Browns more than some of the teams I've already talked about - especially if they get Hawkins and Cameron back. Trying to run against the Texans is not a smart idea - which, of course, means Cleveland will try to run another 50+ times.
Carolina - Hey, the Falcons are visiting. That's an instant-win for the home team. Time to use the Panthers! Yeah, I don't think so...
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Great breakdown as always. I had Carolina in, but
Trying to decide between the big Cs: Cleveland, Carolina and Chicago (could use Cincy too, but don't like that matchup)
FUBAR
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Get the agony over early, the Washington Native Americans.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
I hate taking road teams in this thing, but taking a long look at San Fran this week and maybe even Pittsburgh. Cleveland would be the first home team I would consider. Miami and Washington after that. Weeks back, I thought Chicago or Carolina would be the play, but not touching them now.
FUBAR
Footballguy
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Still alive in two contests (final 2 in one, and final 4 in the other), and I agree with most of this. Leaning towards MIA, if for no other reason than I don't think I can stand 3 more days of second-guessing my pick.
In all seriousness, Pittsburgh on the road (and without key defensive playmakers) scares me. SF (and NYG, for that matter) are Jekyll & Hyde, in terms of consistency. No way I'm touching CAR, and I have no idea how/why WAS is favored by more than a TD. That leaves MIA and CLE. As much as I think CLE will win, I'm certainly not confident in it. They and HOU are very similar... Good defense, good running game, and little else. HOU has the better WR's, and is coming off a bye, while a let-down by the Browns (after the win over Cincy) wouldn't surprise me at all. Meanwhile, MIA is facing a Bills team that isn't the same as the one that beat them early in the season. And, Miami's defense is downright tough, particularly in the Florida heat.
I don't like any of my options (burned through DEN, SD, and NO long ago), but I think I'm going to go with the TNF trend of blowouts. Not necessarily blowouts by the team that is favored, but by the team who is playing better football as of late.
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FUBAR
Footballguy
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
The Dolphins didn't take your advice on the Dolphins until late in the third quarter!
Golden Gopher
Footballguy
Exactly. I took them in both of my pools, and feel like I really dodged a bullet last night.Pip said:
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Not having pulled the trigger on Miami, I'm left with PIT, WAS or SF for my big pool (20 remaining of 300+). Hate all those options. Have PIT in there now in hopes of a "they won't let down twice in a row" scenario, such as when they (barely) beat JAX after losing to TB. Have NO left in my small pool (3 remaining) and am using them.
r0llin_game
Footballguy
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Would be nice to take SD, Denver, GB, Miami, or even NO this week....but Iv already taken them, so need to look elsewhere. The biggest favourite of the week (outside of these games), according to Vegas, is the Redskins at -7.5. If there was ever a week that scared me about being eliminated in my survivor pool, it would be this week. I really have no faith in taking the Redskins, besides the fact that there coming fresh off a bye week, and playing the lowly Bucs.
I see alot of people are thinking about taking the Brownies this week, and think that is a much bigger mistake. The Brownies have had a really soft schedule year to date, and are coming off a big win against a division rival. It has all the makings of a potential letdown game against a good Texans team.
Hope to see everybody next week! Good luck!
I see alot of people are thinking about taking the Brownies this week, and think that is a much bigger mistake. The Brownies have had a really soft schedule year to date, and are coming off a big win against a division rival. It has all the makings of a potential letdown game against a good Texans team.
Hope to see everybody next week! Good luck!
Yeah, it's going to be rough sledding for Washington without Trent Williams on the field.
It's still early, though... perhaps they'll be able to rally.
EDIT: Then again... perhaps not.
With the Redskins sinking both OZJHawk and DharmaBums07, we are now down to our Final 4.
The 49ers continue to cling to a 6-point lead in New York. Somehow the Giants are still in this game despite Eli throwing 5 interceptions.
EDIT 2: San Fran holds on to secure an 11th straight win for both TarheelAlan and austins7601.
I've got the Chargers rolling (already up a TD). carmieadkins appears to be riding with the Steelers tomorrow night.
It's still early, though... perhaps they'll be able to rally.
EDIT: Then again... perhaps not.
With the Redskins sinking both OZJHawk and DharmaBums07, we are now down to our Final 4.
The 49ers continue to cling to a 6-point lead in New York. Somehow the Giants are still in this game despite Eli throwing 5 interceptions.
EDIT 2: San Fran holds on to secure an 11th straight win for both TarheelAlan and austins7601.
I've got the Chargers rolling (already up a TD). carmieadkins appears to be riding with the Steelers tomorrow night.
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r0llin_game
Footballguy
*Insert Ice Cube's "Today Was A Good Day"*
Came into the week with 49 people left, down to 10 moving on, with 8 on Pitt tomorrow.
Came into the week with 49 people left, down to 10 moving on, with 8 on Pitt tomorrow.
bigbrownbag
Footballguy
Still alive. Was on chargers as well. Today was a massacre for the zero strikes. Went in with 31 down to 11 with 6 of them on Pittsburgh Overall. Started with 618 and down to 11. Perhaps 5 if pitt wins
This just got very interesting!
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6 weeks to go and we're down to our final 4 players remaining in the FBG Suicide Pool contest.
This time last year we were down to 3 surviving players - two survived to Week 12 and were done in at the same time by riding the 9-1 Chiefs against the 4-6 Chargers at Arrowhead. Those pesky divisional games. Surely we can avoid the same fate, right? At least ESPN provides us with a tiebreaker format to use in the event of an all-survivor takeout week.
Here are the all-time FBG Suicide Pool champions...
2007 Winner - TC
2008 Winner - Almas_4th_Child, iowa clubbers, the rainmaker
2009 Winner - Neil Beufort Zod and Don't Noonan
2010 Winner - swampdog
2011 Winner - Grid71, SammyJankis
2012 Winner - SanDawg
2013 Winner - swampdog and the Frog
How about that swampdog winning this thing twice in 4 years? Most impressive.
For nostalgia's sake, here are the four surviving players from this season using the old Survivor Week entry format...
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF | Differential = 166 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD | Differential = 137 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF | Differential = 124 Points
carmieadkins - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT | Differential = 96 Points
Now let's take a look at Week 12...
Green Bay Packers
- Only TarheelAlan has them available
- Winners of 6 of their last 7 games, undefeated at Lambeau Field - 4 consecutive home games by blowout victory (3 TDs or greater)
- Beat the Vikings in Week 5 by a score of 42-10
- Upcoming lineup = @ MIN (-10), vs. NE, vs. ATL, @ BUF, @ TB, vs. DET
The nice thing about the Packers is that the Lions have kept them honest up until now. So long as Detroit doesn't slide following their loss in Arizona, Green Bay will continue to show up for these games they'll be favored highly in - including their visit to Minnesota this weekend. The Vikings have beaten 4 teams this season - none of whom sport an above .500 record. The Pack should mow right through them.
Indianapolis Colts
- Still available for both austins7601 and carmieadkins
- Only 4 teams in the AFC have coughed up more points than the Colts; thankfully for Indianapolis, they play one of those teams this week
- Beat the Jaguars at EverBank Field in Week 3 by a score of 44-17; now face them at home albeit without Ahmad Bradshaw and possibly without Dwayne Allen as available weapons
- Indy has won 4 straight games against Jacksonville
- Upcoming lineup = vs. JAX (-14), vs. WAS, @ CLE, vs. HOU, @ DAL, @ TEN
Aside from their home games against the AFC North, Indy has largely underachieved against stiff competition this season. Thankfully, they face very little of that in their upcoming schedule with the next two weeks being the most appetizing. I would be more inclined to ride Indy this week as the Redskins do boast a capable defensive unit and that game could prove to be closer than one might like if the absence of Bradshaw derails the rhythm of Indy's offense at all.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Still available for both TarheelAlan and carmieadkins
- Winners of 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 games; have now tied the Broncos for the AFC West lead and aim to take it outright by putting their boots to the throats of the winless Raiders on Thursday night
- Why not to use KC this week? They draw Oakland again at Arrowhead in Week 15 which boasts fewer appetizing matchups - although if you've got the Ravens in reserve (as TarheelAlan does) that's not as much of an issue; if you've still got Baltimore in your holster, feel free to fire away here
- Upcoming lineup = @ OAK (-7.5), vs. DEN, @ ARI, vs. OAK, @ PIT, vs. SD
Anthony Fasano returned to practice today so it's likely that Kelce will be back working marginal snap counts again on Thursday. I don't have pleasant things to say about Oakland - they have a bottom 6 rush defense and will be flirting with worst in the league status after entertaining Charles twice in the next month.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Still available for both Lascelle and carmieadkins
- Have won 9 consecutive regular season games at Lincoln Financial Field; their remaining opponents don't get any better than hosting the Titans on a short week after they blew a 4th quarter lead in the "Battle of the 'Bergers"
- Fun fact: The Titans have owned Philly whenever they've faced each other; Tenny has won their past 4 matchups
- Upcoming lineup = vs. TEN (-11), @ DAL, vs. SEA, vs. DAL, @ WAS, @ NYG
I'm likely going to be riding the Eagles this week. Boiled down to using either them or the 49ers and San Fran still has an Oakland game on their schedule. It's either divisional road games or the defending Super Bowl champs the rest of the way for Philly. That head-to-head series against Dallas should determine who wins the NFC East.
San Francisco 49ers
- Still available for both Lascelle and carmieadkins
- They're the NFC equivalent of the Steelers in that they play to their level of competition and have a tendency to not show up for games
- Favored by 9 points at home over the Redskins, I'd rather fade what will be a low-scoring game than ride it with my Survivor pool fate on the line
- Upcoming lineup = vs. WAS (-9), vs. SEA, @ OAK, @ SEA, vs. SD, vs. ARI
There's not much more to say about the 49ers that I haven't said already. I'd advise saving them for Week 14 if you have them - San Fran is 4-2 away from Levi's Stadium this season. Only the Cardinals and Cowboys sport better road records this year so that trip across the Bay isn't worth sweating over and San Francisco hasn't lost to the Raiders since the year 2000.
Not too keen on many of the other matchups this week - do you really want to gamble on the Bears at home against the Bucs? With both Josh McCown and Lovie Smith returning to Chi-Town? Have fun with that!
Based on the above, I would say that austins7601 should take the Colts this week, I'm taking the Eagles, TarheelAlan should take the Chiefs and carmieadkins has the most flexibility but should probably ride Philly with me. Of course, feel free to make up your own minds - I certainly won't be complaining.
This time last year we were down to 3 surviving players - two survived to Week 12 and were done in at the same time by riding the 9-1 Chiefs against the 4-6 Chargers at Arrowhead. Those pesky divisional games. Surely we can avoid the same fate, right? At least ESPN provides us with a tiebreaker format to use in the event of an all-survivor takeout week.
Here are the all-time FBG Suicide Pool champions...
2007 Winner - TC
2008 Winner - Almas_4th_Child, iowa clubbers, the rainmaker
2009 Winner - Neil Beufort Zod and Don't Noonan
2010 Winner - swampdog
2011 Winner - Grid71, SammyJankis
2012 Winner - SanDawg
2013 Winner - swampdog and the Frog
How about that swampdog winning this thing twice in 4 years? Most impressive.
For nostalgia's sake, here are the four surviving players from this season using the old Survivor Week entry format...
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF | Differential = 166 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD | Differential = 137 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF | Differential = 124 Points
carmieadkins - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT | Differential = 96 Points
Now let's take a look at Week 12...
Green Bay Packers
- Only TarheelAlan has them available
- Winners of 6 of their last 7 games, undefeated at Lambeau Field - 4 consecutive home games by blowout victory (3 TDs or greater)
- Beat the Vikings in Week 5 by a score of 42-10
- Upcoming lineup = @ MIN (-10), vs. NE, vs. ATL, @ BUF, @ TB, vs. DET
The nice thing about the Packers is that the Lions have kept them honest up until now. So long as Detroit doesn't slide following their loss in Arizona, Green Bay will continue to show up for these games they'll be favored highly in - including their visit to Minnesota this weekend. The Vikings have beaten 4 teams this season - none of whom sport an above .500 record. The Pack should mow right through them.
Indianapolis Colts
- Still available for both austins7601 and carmieadkins
- Only 4 teams in the AFC have coughed up more points than the Colts; thankfully for Indianapolis, they play one of those teams this week
- Beat the Jaguars at EverBank Field in Week 3 by a score of 44-17; now face them at home albeit without Ahmad Bradshaw and possibly without Dwayne Allen as available weapons
- Indy has won 4 straight games against Jacksonville
- Upcoming lineup = vs. JAX (-14), vs. WAS, @ CLE, vs. HOU, @ DAL, @ TEN
Aside from their home games against the AFC North, Indy has largely underachieved against stiff competition this season. Thankfully, they face very little of that in their upcoming schedule with the next two weeks being the most appetizing. I would be more inclined to ride Indy this week as the Redskins do boast a capable defensive unit and that game could prove to be closer than one might like if the absence of Bradshaw derails the rhythm of Indy's offense at all.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Still available for both TarheelAlan and carmieadkins
- Winners of 5 straight and 7 of their last 8 games; have now tied the Broncos for the AFC West lead and aim to take it outright by putting their boots to the throats of the winless Raiders on Thursday night
- Why not to use KC this week? They draw Oakland again at Arrowhead in Week 15 which boasts fewer appetizing matchups - although if you've got the Ravens in reserve (as TarheelAlan does) that's not as much of an issue; if you've still got Baltimore in your holster, feel free to fire away here
- Upcoming lineup = @ OAK (-7.5), vs. DEN, @ ARI, vs. OAK, @ PIT, vs. SD
Anthony Fasano returned to practice today so it's likely that Kelce will be back working marginal snap counts again on Thursday. I don't have pleasant things to say about Oakland - they have a bottom 6 rush defense and will be flirting with worst in the league status after entertaining Charles twice in the next month.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Still available for both Lascelle and carmieadkins
- Have won 9 consecutive regular season games at Lincoln Financial Field; their remaining opponents don't get any better than hosting the Titans on a short week after they blew a 4th quarter lead in the "Battle of the 'Bergers"
- Fun fact: The Titans have owned Philly whenever they've faced each other; Tenny has won their past 4 matchups
- Upcoming lineup = vs. TEN (-11), @ DAL, vs. SEA, vs. DAL, @ WAS, @ NYG
I'm likely going to be riding the Eagles this week. Boiled down to using either them or the 49ers and San Fran still has an Oakland game on their schedule. It's either divisional road games or the defending Super Bowl champs the rest of the way for Philly. That head-to-head series against Dallas should determine who wins the NFC East.
San Francisco 49ers
- Still available for both Lascelle and carmieadkins
- They're the NFC equivalent of the Steelers in that they play to their level of competition and have a tendency to not show up for games
- Favored by 9 points at home over the Redskins, I'd rather fade what will be a low-scoring game than ride it with my Survivor pool fate on the line
- Upcoming lineup = vs. WAS (-9), vs. SEA, @ OAK, @ SEA, vs. SD, vs. ARI
There's not much more to say about the 49ers that I haven't said already. I'd advise saving them for Week 14 if you have them - San Fran is 4-2 away from Levi's Stadium this season. Only the Cardinals and Cowboys sport better road records this year so that trip across the Bay isn't worth sweating over and San Francisco hasn't lost to the Raiders since the year 2000.
Not too keen on many of the other matchups this week - do you really want to gamble on the Bears at home against the Bucs? With both Josh McCown and Lovie Smith returning to Chi-Town? Have fun with that!
Based on the above, I would say that austins7601 should take the Colts this week, I'm taking the Eagles, TarheelAlan should take the Chiefs and carmieadkins has the most flexibility but should probably ride Philly with me. Of course, feel free to make up your own minds - I certainly won't be complaining.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I've used PHI and GB. The best teams I have left are IND, SF and KC. Looking at Week 13, I don't like my available options except IND vs. WAS. I figured on saving KC for Week 15 when they host OAK. So I think I'm going with the "I hope WAS has turned into a dumpster fire" strategy:
Week 12: SF vs. WAS
Week 13: IND vs. WAS
Week 14: ?
Week 15: KC vs. OAK
Week 12: SF vs. WAS
Week 13: IND vs. WAS
Week 14: ?
Week 15: KC vs. OAK
r0llin_game
Footballguy
My friend and I were one of four or five people who could use SD and we saved them specifically for this week. Only eight people could use Denver, we were also one of them, but are saving them for week 14 vs Buffalo. Washington (14) and Nola (9) were the big picks this week in my pool.
fantasy stud
Footballguy
I will be taking the Colts! Have been drooling over this matchup for weeks knowing I would just have to find a way to survive week 11.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
:(
Sorry man. Three people in my pool went against the road team/division game/national TV dynamic. They were all women, incidentally.
No casualties in the FBG Eliminator group from the Raiders upset of the Chiefs. Even TarheelAlan managed to steer clear contrary to my advice. Props to him for that.
I imagine he'll roll with the Packers after fading that divisional, prime time game. (We still have two more of those this weekend with the Cowboys visiting the Giants on Sunday and the Jets-Bills game in Detroit on Monday.)
I imagine he'll roll with the Packers after fading that divisional, prime time game. (We still have two more of those this weekend with the Cowboys visiting the Giants on Sunday and the Jets-Bills game in Detroit on Monday.)
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
Currently I have the Eagles in for this week. Have considered the Colts also, but have them penciled in later.
Congrats to the Final 4 on surviving yet another Eliminator week. FIVE weeks remain. Will be throwing together a look at Week 13 quickly as we've got three games on deck early on Turkey Day and that divisional Lions/Bears game in particular could decide some Eliminator seasons.
Detroit had lost 9 consecutive Thanksgiving Day games up until last season's home blowout of the Packers. Despite losing two straight games with anemic single-digit offensive showings on the road against the Cardinals and Patriots, Detroit is presently favored to topple the Bears - winners of two straight at home (albeit against two awful Vikings & Bucs teams) - by 6 1/2 points.
Normally this would be a game one would want to fade - especially with the practice week for the Lions contracted further by tomorrow night's Jets-Bills game - but it's not like there's much that's appetizing on next week's menu. carmieadkins still has the easy decision to ride the Colts against the Redskins. The other big favorites for the week are none other than the Texans hosting the Titans... possibly with Tom Savage as their starting QB. And the Rams at home with "Mr. Turnover" Shaun Hill throwing against the no longer winless Raiders. The Texans D and Rams D could probably win both of those games on their own, but do you really want to trust that?
The best bet might well be to wait it out until Monday and take the Dolphins over the Jets (who are drawing rare back-to-back Monday games). ALL of these games are divisional except for the Rams-Raiders contest (and the likely "free win" for the Colts) so it's going to be tight sledding for us making it very difficult to reach Week 14 unscathed.
Detroit had lost 9 consecutive Thanksgiving Day games up until last season's home blowout of the Packers. Despite losing two straight games with anemic single-digit offensive showings on the road against the Cardinals and Patriots, Detroit is presently favored to topple the Bears - winners of two straight at home (albeit against two awful Vikings & Bucs teams) - by 6 1/2 points.
Normally this would be a game one would want to fade - especially with the practice week for the Lions contracted further by tomorrow night's Jets-Bills game - but it's not like there's much that's appetizing on next week's menu. carmieadkins still has the easy decision to ride the Colts against the Redskins. The other big favorites for the week are none other than the Texans hosting the Titans... possibly with Tom Savage as their starting QB. And the Rams at home with "Mr. Turnover" Shaun Hill throwing against the no longer winless Raiders. The Texans D and Rams D could probably win both of those games on their own, but do you really want to trust that?
The best bet might well be to wait it out until Monday and take the Dolphins over the Jets (who are drawing rare back-to-back Monday games). ALL of these games are divisional except for the Rams-Raiders contest (and the likely "free win" for the Colts) so it's going to be tight sledding for us making it very difficult to reach Week 14 unscathed.
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How prophetic was it that I kicked off last week's post calling out a pivotal Chiefs upset in Week 12 of last year that upset the survivor pool apple cart? And lo and behold, the Chiefs were snake-bitten once again this season - and yet we all dodged the bullet this time around. Time for a more expansive look at Week 13.
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF, DEN | Differential = 169 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD, PHI | Differential = 156 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF, IND | Differential = 144 Points
BillyJoeBob - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT, PHI | Differential = 115 Points
Apart from the Colts game, there aren't many options for your Eliminator pool that you're going to feel completely comfortable with so I've included an array of options below with perspectives you may want to consider before making your crucial decision.
Indianapolis Colts - vs. WAS (-10)
- Still available for BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ CLE, vs. HOU, @ DAL, @ TEN (only two decent matchups remaining, both against divisional opponents and only one of those at home)
- Your decision isn't about whether the Colts represent the safest bet to win of the week - they do; it's about whether you'd rather save them to use against the Texans or Titans later; that decision will depend solely on what teams you still have at your disposal
- If you have one of the Lions, Ravens or Chiefs left for Week 15 - and one of the Patriots, Texans, Dolphins or Broncos left for Week 17 - THEN you shouldn't worry too much about saving Indy for later
- In the case of BillyJoeBob, he still has KC on hand for Week 15 so this may be the best slot to have those Colts "penciled in" to - awesome Lady's Leg lamp avatar, btw (love me some A Christmas Story)
Miami Dolphins - @ NYJ (-7.5)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = vs. BAL, @ NE, vs. MIN, vs. NYJ (a monster favorite in Weeks 16-17 to close out the season; may well be worth saving them for later)
- The J-E-T-S are G-A-R-B-A-G-E - and we all know this - but they've been garbage for a while now and they've still found a way to trade wins with the Dolphins every season since 2009; so wouldn't you rather wait until after that first game takes place to know where to stack your chips on Week 17?
Detroit Lions - vs. CHI (-7)
- Still available for Lascelle and austins7601
- Remaining opponents = vs. TB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ GB (kicking off a 3-game home stand against opponents they should easily dismantle)
- I've covered most of the angles for this game in my earlier post but I'm being somewhat scared off from Detroit thanks to those cushy post-Turkey Day contests; also, was last season's breaking of the annual holiday game curse legit or a mirage? Watching the Lions lose each year just seems to be a tradition and I'd hate to bet three months of Eliminator success against it re-emerging. It would be like betting on the Bills to finally win the Super Bowl; it just feels wrong somehow
St. Louis Rams - vs. OAK (-7)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = @ WAS, vs. ARI, vs. NYG, @ SEA (nothing you'll feel great about but the NFC East matchups can at least be entertained)
- The Rams have been streak killers this season thanks to their surprising wins hosting Seattle in Week 7, visiting San Fran in Week 9 and hosting Denver in Week 11 - so why don't I feel better about taking them at home against the 1-10 Raiders?
- Well, the main reason is that Shaun Hill remains their starting QB despite 3 costly turnovers against San Diego last weekend and Schottenheimer's inconsistent play-calling on offense; Oakland is also coming off a long week after their Thursday night upset of the Chiefs
- Oakland has lost 8 straight road games - and 16 of their past 17 - but they haven't been so terrible in the state of Missouri where they've won 6 of their last 7 (albeit all of those wins were at the expense of the Chiefs at Arrowhead - and not the Rams)
- At this point, it may well just behoove us to fade St. Louis outright and avoid either taking teams against them or taking them against other opponents
Houston Texans - vs. TEN (-6)
- Still available for Lascelle, austins7601 and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ JAX, @ IND, vs. BAL, vs. JAX (certainly have to like those two late-season matchups with the Jaguars despite their QB uncertainty)
- I honestly can't recommend them as a play right now if they trot out unproven Tom Savage this week; they've also lost 3 straight at home, have persistent question marks surrounding Foster's health (amazing matchup against the non-existent Titans run D notwithstanding) and Mettenberger's 345 passing yards against the Eagles last week might be an indication that he's beginning to figure some things out
Buffalo Bills - vs. CLE (-5)
- Still available for TarheelAlan, Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ DEN, vs. GB, @ OAK, @ NE (only the Raiders matchup stands out as something to consider)
- Do we even know where this game is being played yet? Dominant thrashing of the lowly Jets on Monday night or not, Buffalo's record in crucial November contests is NOT good - and if there was a team with more motivation to bump them up the draft board with a loss than Cleveland, I sure can't think of one
Cincinnati Bengals - @ TB (-3.5)
- Still available for Lascelle and austins7601
- Remaining opponents = vs. PIT, @ CLE, vs. DEN, @ PIT (practically unusable the rest of the way)
- Despite being a road game, this is the matchup I'm leaning most towards taking this week. Cincy has only lost once in their last 5 including back-to-back road wins against the Saints and Texans and it's almost unfathomable that the Buccaneers will give them any more trouble than those two teams did - especially with a healthy Gio Bernard back in the lineup
- The Bucs are winless at home on the season having lost 6 straight in Tampa Bay; the last time they successfully won at Raymond James Stadium against a team with an above .500 record was Week 6 of the 2011 season against the 4-1 Saints in the game where Sean Payton tore a ligament on the sidelines after a collision with Jimmy Graham; just to spell out the math there that was over 3 years ago
- Cincinnati is back in "run it down their throats" mode - and that's a strategy that Tampa Bay's defense simply has no answer for - especially now that Lavonte David is banged up
- The AFC North's record against the NFC South this season is a sparkling 10-1-1
Baltimore Ravens - vs. SD (-3)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ MIA, vs. JAX, @ HOU, vs. CLE (have to like that remaining home sched - especially against the Jags in Week 15)
- Ravens remain one of the most consistently dominant teams at home in the NFL - having not lost more than 2 games at M&T Bank Stadium each year since 2008 (that includes the playoffs)
- The dilemma here is that they've only lost once thus far to the Bengals and they're more likely to lose to San Diego than they are to Jacksonville or Cleveland; they're also playing on a short week against a West Coast team that can handle those early 1pm Sunday starts better than most
- If you've saved Baltimore this long, might as well keep them a couple weeks longer for that Jacksonville game that's practically an automatic win
Minnesota Vikings - vs. CAR (-3)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = vs. NYJ, @ DET, @ MIA, vs. CHI (both this week and the Jets game are favorable rolls of the dice - but nothing more)
- I'm including them here because some folks will entertain taking them at home against a Panthers team that has only won a single game in its last 9 and only once on the road all season. I would still fade this matchup with Carolina coming off their bye week. Minny largely beats the bad teams they've faced at home but they only edged the Redskins by 3, needed OT to beat the Bucs the week before and haven't won a game decisively since September
Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. NO (-2.5)
- Still available for austins7601
- Remaining opponents = @ CIN, @ ATL, vs. KC, vs. CIN (nothing to see here)
- I'm actually surprised the spread is so low on this one; the Steelers are coming off their bye to host a Saints team that's on a short week, atrocious on the road and that just lost all 3 games of their recent home stand
- I've steered you clear of Pittsburgh in the past but they play hard against teams that are "perceived" to still be good like New Orleans inexplicably is; it's the trash teams the Steelers play sloppy against you need to shy away from
- The AFC North's record against the NFC South this season is a sparkling 10-1-1 (yeah, I sound like a broken record here)
Arizona Cardinals - @ ATL (-2.5)
- Still available for Lascelle, austins7601 and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = vs. KC, @ STL, vs. SEA, @ SF (should only be considered as a desperate flyer on a week-to-week basis)
- Drew Stanton or not, this is a team that has only lost twice all season on the road to last year's Super Bowl teams; the Falcons may be a 1st place team on paper but they're not credible opposition - even at the Georgia Dome where they've lost three straight to Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland
- My primary concern with the Cards here is that their defense is exploitable by teams that pass well - something Atlanta can still do; this will be a shootout with a close finish that I would prefer to shy away from if Fitzgerald remains on the shelf and can't play
New York Giants - @ JAX (-2.5)
- Still available for everybody
- I don't care how pretty Beckham's catch was and how terrible the Jags are, this is a Giants team that has lost 6 straight games and whose primary exploitable weakness is their piss-poor run defense - something even Jacksonville seems to be able to do now courtesy of Shoelace; steer clear
So with all that said, I'm taking the Bengals this Sunday. Best of luck to everyone else!
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF, DEN | Differential = 169 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD, PHI | Differential = 156 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF, IND | Differential = 144 Points
BillyJoeBob - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT, PHI | Differential = 115 Points
Apart from the Colts game, there aren't many options for your Eliminator pool that you're going to feel completely comfortable with so I've included an array of options below with perspectives you may want to consider before making your crucial decision.
Indianapolis Colts - vs. WAS (-10)
- Still available for BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ CLE, vs. HOU, @ DAL, @ TEN (only two decent matchups remaining, both against divisional opponents and only one of those at home)
- Your decision isn't about whether the Colts represent the safest bet to win of the week - they do; it's about whether you'd rather save them to use against the Texans or Titans later; that decision will depend solely on what teams you still have at your disposal
- If you have one of the Lions, Ravens or Chiefs left for Week 15 - and one of the Patriots, Texans, Dolphins or Broncos left for Week 17 - THEN you shouldn't worry too much about saving Indy for later
- In the case of BillyJoeBob, he still has KC on hand for Week 15 so this may be the best slot to have those Colts "penciled in" to - awesome Lady's Leg lamp avatar, btw (love me some A Christmas Story)
Miami Dolphins - @ NYJ (-7.5)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = vs. BAL, @ NE, vs. MIN, vs. NYJ (a monster favorite in Weeks 16-17 to close out the season; may well be worth saving them for later)
- The J-E-T-S are G-A-R-B-A-G-E - and we all know this - but they've been garbage for a while now and they've still found a way to trade wins with the Dolphins every season since 2009; so wouldn't you rather wait until after that first game takes place to know where to stack your chips on Week 17?
Detroit Lions - vs. CHI (-7)
- Still available for Lascelle and austins7601
- Remaining opponents = vs. TB, vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ GB (kicking off a 3-game home stand against opponents they should easily dismantle)
- I've covered most of the angles for this game in my earlier post but I'm being somewhat scared off from Detroit thanks to those cushy post-Turkey Day contests; also, was last season's breaking of the annual holiday game curse legit or a mirage? Watching the Lions lose each year just seems to be a tradition and I'd hate to bet three months of Eliminator success against it re-emerging. It would be like betting on the Bills to finally win the Super Bowl; it just feels wrong somehow
St. Louis Rams - vs. OAK (-7)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = @ WAS, vs. ARI, vs. NYG, @ SEA (nothing you'll feel great about but the NFC East matchups can at least be entertained)
- The Rams have been streak killers this season thanks to their surprising wins hosting Seattle in Week 7, visiting San Fran in Week 9 and hosting Denver in Week 11 - so why don't I feel better about taking them at home against the 1-10 Raiders?
- Well, the main reason is that Shaun Hill remains their starting QB despite 3 costly turnovers against San Diego last weekend and Schottenheimer's inconsistent play-calling on offense; Oakland is also coming off a long week after their Thursday night upset of the Chiefs
- Oakland has lost 8 straight road games - and 16 of their past 17 - but they haven't been so terrible in the state of Missouri where they've won 6 of their last 7 (albeit all of those wins were at the expense of the Chiefs at Arrowhead - and not the Rams)
- At this point, it may well just behoove us to fade St. Louis outright and avoid either taking teams against them or taking them against other opponents
Houston Texans - vs. TEN (-6)
- Still available for Lascelle, austins7601 and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ JAX, @ IND, vs. BAL, vs. JAX (certainly have to like those two late-season matchups with the Jaguars despite their QB uncertainty)
- I honestly can't recommend them as a play right now if they trot out unproven Tom Savage this week; they've also lost 3 straight at home, have persistent question marks surrounding Foster's health (amazing matchup against the non-existent Titans run D notwithstanding) and Mettenberger's 345 passing yards against the Eagles last week might be an indication that he's beginning to figure some things out
Buffalo Bills - vs. CLE (-5)
- Still available for TarheelAlan, Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ DEN, vs. GB, @ OAK, @ NE (only the Raiders matchup stands out as something to consider)
- Do we even know where this game is being played yet? Dominant thrashing of the lowly Jets on Monday night or not, Buffalo's record in crucial November contests is NOT good - and if there was a team with more motivation to bump them up the draft board with a loss than Cleveland, I sure can't think of one
Cincinnati Bengals - @ TB (-3.5)
- Still available for Lascelle and austins7601
- Remaining opponents = vs. PIT, @ CLE, vs. DEN, @ PIT (practically unusable the rest of the way)
- Despite being a road game, this is the matchup I'm leaning most towards taking this week. Cincy has only lost once in their last 5 including back-to-back road wins against the Saints and Texans and it's almost unfathomable that the Buccaneers will give them any more trouble than those two teams did - especially with a healthy Gio Bernard back in the lineup
- The Bucs are winless at home on the season having lost 6 straight in Tampa Bay; the last time they successfully won at Raymond James Stadium against a team with an above .500 record was Week 6 of the 2011 season against the 4-1 Saints in the game where Sean Payton tore a ligament on the sidelines after a collision with Jimmy Graham; just to spell out the math there that was over 3 years ago
- Cincinnati is back in "run it down their throats" mode - and that's a strategy that Tampa Bay's defense simply has no answer for - especially now that Lavonte David is banged up
- The AFC North's record against the NFC South this season is a sparkling 10-1-1
Baltimore Ravens - vs. SD (-3)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ MIA, vs. JAX, @ HOU, vs. CLE (have to like that remaining home sched - especially against the Jags in Week 15)
- Ravens remain one of the most consistently dominant teams at home in the NFL - having not lost more than 2 games at M&T Bank Stadium each year since 2008 (that includes the playoffs)
- The dilemma here is that they've only lost once thus far to the Bengals and they're more likely to lose to San Diego than they are to Jacksonville or Cleveland; they're also playing on a short week against a West Coast team that can handle those early 1pm Sunday starts better than most
- If you've saved Baltimore this long, might as well keep them a couple weeks longer for that Jacksonville game that's practically an automatic win
Minnesota Vikings - vs. CAR (-3)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = vs. NYJ, @ DET, @ MIA, vs. CHI (both this week and the Jets game are favorable rolls of the dice - but nothing more)
- I'm including them here because some folks will entertain taking them at home against a Panthers team that has only won a single game in its last 9 and only once on the road all season. I would still fade this matchup with Carolina coming off their bye week. Minny largely beats the bad teams they've faced at home but they only edged the Redskins by 3, needed OT to beat the Bucs the week before and haven't won a game decisively since September
Pittsburgh Steelers - vs. NO (-2.5)
- Still available for austins7601
- Remaining opponents = @ CIN, @ ATL, vs. KC, vs. CIN (nothing to see here)
- I'm actually surprised the spread is so low on this one; the Steelers are coming off their bye to host a Saints team that's on a short week, atrocious on the road and that just lost all 3 games of their recent home stand
- I've steered you clear of Pittsburgh in the past but they play hard against teams that are "perceived" to still be good like New Orleans inexplicably is; it's the trash teams the Steelers play sloppy against you need to shy away from
- The AFC North's record against the NFC South this season is a sparkling 10-1-1 (yeah, I sound like a broken record here)
Arizona Cardinals - @ ATL (-2.5)
- Still available for Lascelle, austins7601 and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = vs. KC, @ STL, vs. SEA, @ SF (should only be considered as a desperate flyer on a week-to-week basis)
- Drew Stanton or not, this is a team that has only lost twice all season on the road to last year's Super Bowl teams; the Falcons may be a 1st place team on paper but they're not credible opposition - even at the Georgia Dome where they've lost three straight to Chicago, Detroit and Cleveland
- My primary concern with the Cards here is that their defense is exploitable by teams that pass well - something Atlanta can still do; this will be a shootout with a close finish that I would prefer to shy away from if Fitzgerald remains on the shelf and can't play
New York Giants - @ JAX (-2.5)
- Still available for everybody
- I don't care how pretty Beckham's catch was and how terrible the Jags are, this is a Giants team that has lost 6 straight games and whose primary exploitable weakness is their piss-poor run defense - something even Jacksonville seems to be able to do now courtesy of Shoelace; steer clear
So with all that said, I'm taking the Bengals this Sunday. Best of luck to everyone else!
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r0llin_game
Footballguy
Most likely on the bengals this week as well.
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
I have the Colts in right now. Still need to review, but think I will stay with them.
I'd say both the Dolphins and Bengals are strong picks for this week.
Miami just has utility in Weeks 16-17 that Cincy doesn't have.
For instance, my best remaining options in Week 16 if I burned Miami now would be Buffalo at the Raiders and the Rams hosting the Giants - both of which would essentially be exhibition games with all 4 teams eliminated from playoff contention and playing for nothing. It's hard to feel great about either of those.
My own tentative Eliminator picks the rest of the way are...
Week 14 - San Francisco @ Oakland
Week 15 - Detroit vs. Minnesota
Week 16 - Miami vs. Minnesota (yeah, I'm dumping on the Vikes)
Week 17 - Houston vs. Jacksonville
Using Detroit in Weeks 14 or 15, Miami in Weeks 16 or 17 and Houston for one of the Jaguars games (Weeks 14 or 17) was an easy call. The lack of desirable alternatives in Week 16 kind of relegated the Dolphins to that week. So then it was a simple decision between two road matchups to decide how Houston and Detroit would be blocked. The 49ers beating Oakland next week seems safer than the Cards beating St. Louis in Week 15 (I'm trying to fade the Rams as I noted earlier).
Minnesota hasn't beaten a decent team all season, were winless on the road all last season and the Jags & Raiders have a single win apiece. That's not such a bad Eliminator situation to be in.
My opinions on those games may change obviously but I think it's important to have an end game strategy mapped out at this point.
You'll note that I'm also fading any cold weather games.
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SoCalBroncoFan
Footballguy
Just found this thread and it's a godsend. In a HUGE pool that still has about 100 people left. In fact, because there are so many left we have to pick two teams this week. This thread has made my picks much easier to make. I was locked in with Indy, but wasn't sure who to take in the second game. Was leaning toward NYG, but will now go with CIN.
Having to pick two now sucks, at least until we get a low enough number that we can go back down to one pick. Had my picks all mapped out:
Week 13 Ind vs. Was
Week 14 SF @ Oak
Week 15 Chiefs vs. Oak
Week 16 Balt @ Hou or Buff at Oak
Week 17 Mia vs. Jets
Now, unless enough teams lose, I have to pick a second game each week. Prize is 13K and I want it so bad.
Having to pick two now sucks, at least until we get a low enough number that we can go back down to one pick. Had my picks all mapped out:
Week 13 Ind vs. Was
Week 14 SF @ Oak
Week 15 Chiefs vs. Oak
Week 16 Balt @ Hou or Buff at Oak
Week 17 Mia vs. Jets
Now, unless enough teams lose, I have to pick a second game each week. Prize is 13K and I want it so bad.
My Cincy pick isn't looking too hot right now.
Bucs are doing nothing more than showcasing a mediocre Muscle Hamster so they can dupe some team out of a draft pick in the off-season and the Bengals offense is non-existent.
They're looking highly unmotivated despite their tight division race and their two big road wins the past couple weeks.
EDIT: By all rights, Cincinnati deserved to lose that game. Practically gave me a heart attack. But a win's a win.
Congrats to the Final 4 for surviving to the "final four".
Bucs are doing nothing more than showcasing a mediocre Muscle Hamster so they can dupe some team out of a draft pick in the off-season and the Bengals offense is non-existent.
They're looking highly unmotivated despite their tight division race and their two big road wins the past couple weeks.
EDIT: By all rights, Cincinnati deserved to lose that game. Practically gave me a heart attack. But a win's a win.
Congrats to the Final 4 for surviving to the "final four".
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Early look ahead to Week 14...
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF, DEN, STL | Differential = 221 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF, IND, STL | Differential = 196 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD, PHI, CIN | Differential = 157 Points
BillyJoeBob - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT, PHI, IND | Differential = 137 Points
Missing out on the Rams' 52-point slaughter of the Raiders likely cost me any hope of winning this thing via tiebreaker... but at least I'm still alive.
Green Bay Packers - vs. ATL (-13)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ BUF, @ TB, vs. DET
New Orleans Saints - vs. CAR (-10)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ CHI, vs. ATL, @ TB
Detroit Lions - vs. TB (-10)
- Still available for austins7601 and Lascelle
- Remaining opponents = vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ GB
Denver Broncos - vs. BUF (-10) (not available for anyone)
- Remaining opponents = @ SD, @ CIN, vs. OAK
San Francisco 49ers - @ OAK (-9)
- Still available for Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ SEA, vs. SD, vs. ARI
Minnesota Vikings - vs. NYJ (-6)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = @ DET, @ MIA, vs. CHI
Houston Texans - @ JAX (-6)
- Still available for austins7601, Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ IND, vs. BAL, vs. JAX
Not sure we even want to consider any of the other matchups this week.
I'll have some analysis on these matchups (and word on whether I'll be sticking with my planned pick of the 49ers this week) in a couple days.
TarheelAlan - Winners: DET, ARI, IND, SD, SEA, PHI, PIT, HOU, CIN, DAL, SF, DEN, STL | Differential = 221 Points
austins7601 - Winners: PHI, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, BUF, KC, SEA, BAL, SF, IND, STL | Differential = 196 Points
Lascelle - Winners: PIT, GB, NE, IND, NO, DEN, BAL, KC, SEA, DAL, SD, PHI, CIN | Differential = 157 Points
BillyJoeBob - Winners: NYJ, GB, NE, SD, NO, DEN, DAL, DET, CIN, BAL, PIT, PHI, IND | Differential = 137 Points
Missing out on the Rams' 52-point slaughter of the Raiders likely cost me any hope of winning this thing via tiebreaker... but at least I'm still alive.
Green Bay Packers - vs. ATL (-13)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ BUF, @ TB, vs. DET
New Orleans Saints - vs. CAR (-10)
- Still available for TarheelAlan
- Remaining opponents = @ CHI, vs. ATL, @ TB
Detroit Lions - vs. TB (-10)
- Still available for austins7601 and Lascelle
- Remaining opponents = vs. MIN, @ CHI, @ GB
- Remaining opponents = @ SD, @ CIN, vs. OAK
San Francisco 49ers - @ OAK (-9)
- Still available for Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ SEA, vs. SD, vs. ARI
Minnesota Vikings - vs. NYJ (-6)
- Still available for everybody
- Remaining opponents = @ DET, @ MIA, vs. CHI
Houston Texans - @ JAX (-6)
- Still available for austins7601, Lascelle and BillyJoeBob
- Remaining opponents = @ IND, vs. BAL, vs. JAX
Not sure we even want to consider any of the other matchups this week.
I'll have some analysis on these matchups (and word on whether I'll be sticking with my planned pick of the 49ers this week) in a couple days.
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Time to address this week's Eliminator options more extensively.
Green Bay - The 1st place Atlanta Falcons have done the unthinkable. They've won two consecutive road games. Granted, those wins came at the expense of the dregs of their division - the 2-10 Bucs and the 3-8-1 Panthers - but they're still wins. Winning two straight on the road is a milestone Atlanta had not cleared in over two years. And now they go to Lambeau on Monday night. The Falcons are a team the Pack have historically had a hard time defending their home turf against. Since 2001, they've lost three times to the visiting birds and the largest margin of their two wins was a mere field goal. But that was then and this is now. This Packer team not only defends their home field; they obliterate the spread on their home field and have done so all season long.
So the question isn't whether Green Bay will win but whether to use them now or save them for Week 16 against the Bucs. Let's approach this from TarheelAlan's perspective.
First off, he has the Saints favored huge against the Panthers this week (which I'll get to shortly) so it's not like he doesn't have an enticing favorite (albeit in a division game) to lean on instead. He's also still got the Patriots in reserve who get the Jets in Week 16 and host the Bills in Week 17. He's also got the Dolphins in reserve who host the Vikings and Jets to close the season. That's a real nice situation to be in. Personally, if I'm in his shoes I avoid the underachieving Saints altogether and take Green Bay now. Then again, knowing him - he'll skirt both games and take Minnesota. He's been shrewdly making plays like that all season long to ensure a stacked deck at the end. Then again, we're in the final month of the season - time to start cashing in those chips.
New Orleans - It feels weird seeing an NFC South team billed as a huge favorite against anybody this season. Let alone a home team that has lost three straight at the Superdome. But that's the situation we're looking at here as Carolina limps in to Louisiana having only won a single game since Week 2. It is now Week 14 - and they could still win that division. How pathetic is that? Hell, they'd be in great shape with a win this week because Atlanta is going to lose. The Saints are an undisciplined team with a terrible defense that can choke away a lead on any given week. Perhaps if they had decisively beaten Pittsburgh last week instead of lazing about in garbage time and allowing them to rack up a bunch of points, I'd feel differently. Their offense remains incredibly potent but their defense can be abused - and it probably helps Carolina that DWill got himself hurt again so Rivera should be forced to lean on a revitalized Jonathan Stewart between the 20s. I suspect this game will be appreciably closer than the 28-10 drubbing the Saints pasted on the black cats on Thursday night in Week 9. New Orleans probably wins ugly and you may not have better options this week so you'll take it... but I'd prefer to look the other way.
Detroit - Oh look... it's another NFC South underdog team in an expected blowout. Yeah, Tampa Bay deserved to win last week against the Bengals - and thankfully for my Eliminator survival they found a way to lose - but that was at home against turnover prone Andy Dalton whereas THIS game is on the road in Motown. This is a revenge game for the Lions; a 2-8 Tampa Bay team waltzed in to their building last season in Week 12, won after picking off Stafford 4 times and effectively derailed Detroit's entire season. You had better believe everyone in that locker room remembers that game. They will play hard and play angry - determined to not let these Bucs embarrass them at Ford Field once again. This will be a statement game for Detroit - one they've had 10 full days to prep for - and I suspect Megatron will single-handedly carry a lot of fantasy teams through Money Week. If I had better Week 15 Eliminator options I'd be giving serious pause to stepping away with my plan and rolling with the Lions here. I like this matchup a lot more than their game against the Vikings next week. Detroit's losses this year have all come against teams with potent defenses and Minny's D ain't that bad. In fact, their pass D and secondary is pretty damn good. Unfortunately for both austins7601 and myself - we really don't have better options next week especially now that the Cardinals are in a freefall. So we'll likely have to look elsewhere here.
Will be back to tackle the non-NFC South embarrassment games later.
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Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
I'm one of 6 left in a pool that started with 341. These are my most reliable options for the rest of the season:
Week 14:
HOU @ JAX
MIN vs. NYJ
STL @ WAS
Week 15:
KC vs. OAK -- 100% going with this if I get there
Week 16:
STL vs. NYG
BUF @ OAK
MIA vs. MIN
Week 17:
HOU vs. JAX
MIA vs. NYJ
Right now I've got MIN as my Week 14 pick because I can't conceive of the Jets going on the road in a short week and winning against a pretty good D. That would also leave things more flexible for Weeks 16 and 17. However, MIN is not exactlty a juggernaut and a lot of people got burned this year by picking games like WAS over TB, NYG over JAX, etc.
Week 14:
HOU @ JAX
MIN vs. NYJ
STL @ WAS
Week 15:
KC vs. OAK -- 100% going with this if I get there
Week 16:
STL vs. NYG
BUF @ OAK
MIA vs. MIN
Week 17:
HOU vs. JAX
MIA vs. NYJ
Right now I've got MIN as my Week 14 pick because I can't conceive of the Jets going on the road in a short week and winning against a pretty good D. That would also leave things more flexible for Weeks 16 and 17. However, MIN is not exactlty a juggernaut and a lot of people got burned this year by picking games like WAS over TB, NYG over JAX, etc.
Time to wrap up the rest of this week's Survival Pool slate...
Denver - Only touching on these guys briefly as nobody in the FBG pool still have the Broncos available. If you've waited this long to use Denver, I'd prefer to save them for Week 17's visit by the Raiders. Buffalo's defense is legit and, by all rights, this should be a desperate team with a desperate coaching staff that has absolutely nothing to lose. I'd honestly expected the Bills to curl up and die following their two losses in 4 days to the Chiefs and Dolphins but they've rebounded to notch their 7th win - and that 7th win was crucial. The Bills haven't delivered 8 wins in a season since 2004. That's a DECADE of losing. I can't even begin to stress how big cementing Win #8 against either Denver (this week) or Green Bay (next week) would be for that organization, that city and that coaching staff. Now, do I believe Buffalo wins this week and ends Denver's 8-game home winning streak? No, I do not. But this team is not infallible. Jeff Fisher's Rams drew up a pretty solid gameplan on how to beat this team with solid D and mediocre QB play in Week 11. A 6-7 Chargers team managed to find a way to snake-bite a Denver team "thought to be unbeatable at home" last December and used that to springboard themselves into playoff contention. No reason a 7-5 Buffalo team can't do the same thing and Kyle Orton knows a little something about winning at Mile High.
San Francisco - It's hard not to like any team playing Oakland - especially with a full 10 days to prep - even one that's offensively inept like the 49ers. Reality has come calling for San Fran after their turkey day loss to the Seachickens and this game seems more like Jim Harbaugh's job interview for the impending Raiders coaching vacancy than a game that will propel the 49ers to 8-5 and a potential Super Bowl run. Then again, it won't do wonders for Harbaugh's eligibility for said job if he travels to Oakland and loses. The nice thing about this game is that it's pretty cut-and-dry. The pirates are in complete disarray on both sides of the field. There are only two teams in the NFC with winning road records and the 49ers are one of them. I expect they'll roll over Oakland with ease and I do plan to stick with them this week as per the road map I unveiled last week. BillyJoeBob should strongly consider doing so as well unless he'd prefer to diversify with a home team like Minnesota or Houston.
Minnesota - The Vikes have been my go-to streaming defense for the early part of the fantasy playoffs thanks to their favorable schedule - but I wouldn't get too excited about taking them in a Survival pool in Week 14. They're still weak against the run and that's one thing the Jets have been able to do extremely effectively. Would you believe that for a team that's 2-10 and behind almost indefinitely that the Jets are 2nd in the league in terms of rushing yards? They just can't throw. At all. The Jets have historically dominated Minny having won 7 straight games against the Vikings. The last time they lost to Minnesota was before I was born - in 1975. You want to bet your Eliminator run on something that hasn't happened in your lifetime? I know I don't - short week for New York or not.
Houston - Only the 2nd divisional matchup for Suicide pool consideration this week, the Texans get their first of two favorable matchups against the 2-10 Jaguars... the other being in Week 17. We get the road game first. Houston hasn't beaten the Jags in regulation in their past 3 contests but they've got plenty of incentive this time around. Indy has already played their two games against the Jags. And the Texans get the Colts in Week 15 to potentially avenge their 5-point loss to Indy at Reliant Stadium in Week 6 and make a legit run at the AFC South title. If J.J. Watt's going to make a serious run at the league MVP title this year, he needs to make an example of Jacksonville in these easy contests. I like Houston to make short work of Jacksonville by running Arian Foster down their throats (my sympathies to any of you facing a team with both Megatron and Foster this week) and win their 3rd straight game on the road. They need that momentum for the Indy game. But as for whether you play them in Eliminator this week, you need to look ahead to your Week 17 options and know that you have a fallback option if Houston isn't available. I don't because I plan to use Miami in Week 16 and feel better about the 49ers in Oakland than I do about the Rams winning against the Giants or the Bills winning in Oakland in Week 16. Don't lose sight of that end game when making your all-important Survivor pool decisions.
Best of luck staying alive to see Week 15!
Denver - Only touching on these guys briefly as nobody in the FBG pool still have the Broncos available. If you've waited this long to use Denver, I'd prefer to save them for Week 17's visit by the Raiders. Buffalo's defense is legit and, by all rights, this should be a desperate team with a desperate coaching staff that has absolutely nothing to lose. I'd honestly expected the Bills to curl up and die following their two losses in 4 days to the Chiefs and Dolphins but they've rebounded to notch their 7th win - and that 7th win was crucial. The Bills haven't delivered 8 wins in a season since 2004. That's a DECADE of losing. I can't even begin to stress how big cementing Win #8 against either Denver (this week) or Green Bay (next week) would be for that organization, that city and that coaching staff. Now, do I believe Buffalo wins this week and ends Denver's 8-game home winning streak? No, I do not. But this team is not infallible. Jeff Fisher's Rams drew up a pretty solid gameplan on how to beat this team with solid D and mediocre QB play in Week 11. A 6-7 Chargers team managed to find a way to snake-bite a Denver team "thought to be unbeatable at home" last December and used that to springboard themselves into playoff contention. No reason a 7-5 Buffalo team can't do the same thing and Kyle Orton knows a little something about winning at Mile High.
San Francisco - It's hard not to like any team playing Oakland - especially with a full 10 days to prep - even one that's offensively inept like the 49ers. Reality has come calling for San Fran after their turkey day loss to the Seachickens and this game seems more like Jim Harbaugh's job interview for the impending Raiders coaching vacancy than a game that will propel the 49ers to 8-5 and a potential Super Bowl run. Then again, it won't do wonders for Harbaugh's eligibility for said job if he travels to Oakland and loses. The nice thing about this game is that it's pretty cut-and-dry. The pirates are in complete disarray on both sides of the field. There are only two teams in the NFC with winning road records and the 49ers are one of them. I expect they'll roll over Oakland with ease and I do plan to stick with them this week as per the road map I unveiled last week. BillyJoeBob should strongly consider doing so as well unless he'd prefer to diversify with a home team like Minnesota or Houston.
Minnesota - The Vikes have been my go-to streaming defense for the early part of the fantasy playoffs thanks to their favorable schedule - but I wouldn't get too excited about taking them in a Survival pool in Week 14. They're still weak against the run and that's one thing the Jets have been able to do extremely effectively. Would you believe that for a team that's 2-10 and behind almost indefinitely that the Jets are 2nd in the league in terms of rushing yards? They just can't throw. At all. The Jets have historically dominated Minny having won 7 straight games against the Vikings. The last time they lost to Minnesota was before I was born - in 1975. You want to bet your Eliminator run on something that hasn't happened in your lifetime? I know I don't - short week for New York or not.
Houston - Only the 2nd divisional matchup for Suicide pool consideration this week, the Texans get their first of two favorable matchups against the 2-10 Jaguars... the other being in Week 17. We get the road game first. Houston hasn't beaten the Jags in regulation in their past 3 contests but they've got plenty of incentive this time around. Indy has already played their two games against the Jags. And the Texans get the Colts in Week 15 to potentially avenge their 5-point loss to Indy at Reliant Stadium in Week 6 and make a legit run at the AFC South title. If J.J. Watt's going to make a serious run at the league MVP title this year, he needs to make an example of Jacksonville in these easy contests. I like Houston to make short work of Jacksonville by running Arian Foster down their throats (my sympathies to any of you facing a team with both Megatron and Foster this week) and win their 3rd straight game on the road. They need that momentum for the Indy game. But as for whether you play them in Eliminator this week, you need to look ahead to your Week 17 options and know that you have a fallback option if Houston isn't available. I don't because I plan to use Miami in Week 16 and feel better about the 49ers in Oakland than I do about the Rams winning against the Giants or the Bills winning in Oakland in Week 16. Don't lose sight of that end game when making your all-important Survivor pool decisions.
Best of luck staying alive to see Week 15!
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Clearly I had a solid read on the mess that is the Panthers-Saints game. New Orleans has a #### D and if there are two people on that field that should be throwing punches at one another, it's Sean Payton and Rob Ryan.
TarheelAlan is in extreme jeopardy of getting eliminated this week unless the Saints can regroup. They've certainly got the weapons to do just that.
EDIT: Saints are now down by 27 as nothing is going their way. Barring a miracle, we're about to be down to our Final 3.
The Lions continue to cling to a 10-point lead againt the Bucs which would pave the way to Win 14 for austins7601.
TarheelAlan is in extreme jeopardy of getting eliminated this week unless the Saints can regroup. They've certainly got the weapons to do just that.
EDIT: Saints are now down by 27 as nothing is going their way. Barring a miracle, we're about to be down to our Final 3.
The Lions continue to cling to a 10-point lead againt the Bucs which would pave the way to Win 14 for austins7601.
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