2015 Coach Otis All-Value Team <(^v^)> (1 Viewer)

[Warrior]

Next year I'll listen to the monkey with darts instead.

 

[Otis]

Excellent, I have zero overlap!

Sorry to hear that. Then I guess you missed out on Rivers, Hurns, Duke Johnson and Ladarius Green all outperforming their draft slots. Better luck next year.

I paired Eifert and Green together in just about every league, thinking Green would look so good they wouldn't give Gates his job back, but it appears we were both wrong and the Chargers did give Gates his job back, so I don't know why you are beating your chest about that one. Green was great value while Gates was out, but he won't matter during the important part of fantasy football. =/ I'm not any happier about it than you are, but I'm at least willing to admit the reality of the situation. The salt in the wound is that he's now injured, too.

Duke Johnson is a middling play at best in standard leagues. You forgot to stipulate he was a PPR only pick. Half credit.

You hit on Hurns, but he's not "the best and most effective receiver on that team." Still get full credit.

Rivers was just outside the top 5 and now he's lost his top target. He'll be a sketchy play down the stretch. I'll still give full credit.

Davis and Wheaton are terrible.

You get credit for 2.5 out of 6. Not bad. Not braggable, either.

I'm sorry to hear about your losing record.

 

[BassNBrew]

Excellent, I have zero overlap!

Sorry to hear that. Then I guess you missed out on Rivers, Hurns, Duke Johnson and Ladarius Green all outperforming their draft slots. Better luck next year.

I paired Eifert and Green together in just about every league, thinking Green would look so good they wouldn't give Gates his job back, but it appears we were both wrong and the Chargers did give Gates his job back, so I don't know why you are beating your chest about that one. Green was great value while Gates was out, but he won't matter during the important part of fantasy football. =/ I'm not any happier about it than you are, but I'm at least willing to admit the reality of the situation. The salt in the wound is that he's now injured, too.

Duke Johnson is a middling play at best in standard leagues. You forgot to stipulate he was a PPR only pick. Half credit.

You hit on Hurns, but he's not "the best and most effective receiver on that team." Still get full credit.

Rivers was just outside the top 5 and now he's lost his top target. He'll be a sketchy play down the stretch. I'll still give full credit.

Davis and Wheaton are terrible.

You get credit for 2.5 out of 6. Not bad. Not braggable, either.

2.5 out of 6 is the career high water mark for the Coach!

 

[FF Ninja]

Excellent, I have zero overlap!

Sorry to hear that. Then I guess you missed out on Rivers, Hurns, Duke Johnson and Ladarius Green all outperforming their draft slots. Better luck next year.

I paired Eifert and Green together in just about every league, thinking Green would look so good they wouldn't give Gates his job back, but it appears we were both wrong and the Chargers did give Gates his job back, so I don't know why you are beating your chest about that one. Green was great value while Gates was out, but he won't matter during the important part of fantasy football. =/ I'm not any happier about it than you are, but I'm at least willing to admit the reality of the situation. The salt in the wound is that he's now injured, too.

Duke Johnson is a middling play at best in standard leagues. You forgot to stipulate he was a PPR only pick. Half credit.

You hit on Hurns, but he's not "the best and most effective receiver on that team." Still get full credit.

Rivers was just outside the top 5 and now he's lost his top target. He'll be a sketchy play down the stretch. I'll still give full credit.

Davis and Wheaton are terrible.

You get credit for 2.5 out of 6. Not bad. Not braggable, either.

I'm sorry to hear about your losing record.

Actually, I didn't listen to you, so I'm fine. Eifert alone has me at least above .500 in all leagues.

 

[BroncoFreak_2K3]

Next year I'll listen to the monkey with darts instead.

Yet another unsatisfied customer...

 

[Bankerguy]

I was already awarded the Championship trophy a few weeks early. Thanks coach Otis.

 

[Biabreakable]

Adam Rank gets in on the Hawk strategy

 

[Otis]

Adam Rank gets in on the Hawk strategy

Was a matter of time for the "experts" to catch on. The Sharks are always playing a couple years behind.

 

[Otis]

I was already awarded the Championship trophy a few weeks early. Thanks coach Otis.

 

[CalBear]

Excellent, I have zero overlap!

Sorry to hear that. Then I guess you missed out on Rivers, Hurns, Duke Johnson and Ladarius Green all outperforming their draft slots. Better luck next year.

Are you seriously counting Duke Johnson and Ladarius Green as wins? Johnson is RB#30 and has yet to score a rushing TD. You had Ladarius Green in the top 5; he's at the Mendoza Line. Rivers and Hurns are hardly difficult calls; sharks were all over them both this year and last year.

 

[Widbil83]

Coach Otis nailed Hurns here.

 

[CalBear]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

 

[Otis]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

And Knile was picked on the basis of being the backup in KC. It ended up being the wrong guy, but folks who had West and Ware did alright.

 

[CalBear]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

And Knile was picked on the basis of being the backup in KC. It ended up being the wrong guy, but folks who had West and Ware did alright.

Woo, instead of being valued at his ADP of RB46, Duke Johnson actually wound up as RB37. Definitely worth passing on your first-round pick for! And a much better call than, say, Danny Woodhead who had an ADP of RB45.

Phillip Rivers at QB11 instead of ADP QB14 got you almost 15 points over the course of the season! If you started him every week instead of, say, Blake Bortles who probably went undrafted and outscored him by 40 points.

And Wheaton finishing at WR40 instead of ADP WR51 was clearly a much better choice than Crabtree who was ADP WR52.

As for Davis, I didn't realize you were making predictions for leagues with "TMBACKUPRB" positions. You should probably specify that next year. Also, if you call someone "probably the best backup RB in the league", you might not expect him to be beaten out by two guys on his own team.

 

[Otis]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

And Knile was picked on the basis of being the backup in KC. It ended up being the wrong guy, but folks who had West and Ware did alright.

Woo, instead of being valued at his ADP of RB46, Duke Johnson actually wound up as RB37. Definitely worth passing on your first-round pick for! And a much better call than, say, Danny Woodhead who had an ADP of RB45.

Phillip Rivers at QB11 instead of ADP QB14 got you almost 15 points over the course of the season! If you started him every week instead of, say, Blake Bortles who probably went undrafted and outscored him by 40 points.

And Wheaton finishing at WR40 instead of ADP WR51 was clearly a much better choice than Crabtree who was ADP WR52.

As for Davis, I didn't realize you were making predictions for leagues with "TMBACKUPRB" positions. You should probably specify that next year. Also, if you call someone "probably the best backup RB in the league", you might not expect him to be beaten out by two guys on his own team.

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

 

[bud29]

• Knile Davis

Priest Holmes. Larry Johnson. Jamaal Charles. Knile Davis. It's not hard to see this pattern.

Jamaal Charles has about a million miles on those wheels at this point, and it's going to start to show. Make no mistake, he WILL get nicked up. And when he does, Knile Davis, probably the best backup RB in the league, will swoop in and win championships for fantasynerds everywhere.

At RB45, you're getting a guy who is ready to bust at the seams. He's been a dynamo whenever he's gotten the playing time. This year, he'll get more of he playing time. So you draft him late, and you end up with a guy who will shoulder the load for your team come playoff time.
RB12-RB16 finish

Well, on the bright side, I guess he now rivals CMike for title of best 4th string RB in the league.

 

[CalBear]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

 

[Ookie Pringle]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

And Knile was picked on the basis of being the backup in KC. It ended up being the wrong guy, but folks who had West and Ware did alright.

 

[bostonfred]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

I agree, it's a lot easier to pick the entire field than to pick a few names each season.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Otis rocked it!

QB: Rivers had almost 4,800 yds and 29 Tds, that's solid. Obviously Rivers loaded some of his production in the 1st half but he has done that many times and I will take those pretty solid 8-10 weeks he gives you for what you paid on draft day. Rivers is a lot of folks QB2 or part of a weekly tandem pick the match up.

Good call Otis

RB: Give him his due, he knew the team would be KC and that there would be a back up who would excel but a lot of folks thought Davis would be the back up based on last season. If you paid attention though you could have had West or others on waivers. Otis knew the injury bug was coming, that's pretty good FF-ESP and isn't that what we are looking for? Otis gave you the crystal ball if you paid attention.

Duke showed flashes but look at the dumpster fire he had to try and play through, tons of distractions. You can't hit a HR every time and you can't hit HRs if you don't strikeout once in a while.

WR: Allen Hurns? Are you kidding? Nobody was drafting this guy and Otis nailed it. 64 catches 1,031 and 10 Tds, this was free money and Otis was giving it away. He also hit in 2 of the 3 weeks of the playoffs 105/Td and then FF Bowl Week, the mother of them all Week 16 and what does the guy do? 8/107/ and not one but 2 Tds? Otis practically gift wrapped the Super Bowl to the entire Shark Pool.

Wheaton grabbed 750/5Tds but much of it came in weeks 12-16 which I'm sure was good for owners who gambled. A solid double here.

TE: Otis can't do everything for you and you could work the waiver wire and have latched on to Julius Thomas down the stretch and been OK. Ben Watson, there were WW guys you could have grabbed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTFICwlJtm4

 

[rugcleaner]

I'd like to see everyone of you criticizing to make the same number of picks next year and do better

 

[Biabreakable]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

I agree, it's a lot easier to pick the entire field than to pick a few names each season.

With the benefit of hindsight picking the field becomes much easier.

 

[CalBear]

I'd like to see everyone of you criticizing to make the same number of picks next year and do better

Doing better than hitting on one out of 25 (that's about Otis' rate in the past five years) is not difficult.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

Otis rocked it!

QB: Rivers had almost 4,800 yds and 29 Tds, that's solid. Obviously Rivers loaded some of his production in the 1st half but he has done that many times and I will take those pretty solid 8-10 weeks he gives you for what you paid on draft day. Rivers is a lot of folks QB2 or part of a weekly tandem pick the match up.

Good call Otis

This year I needed a backup to Russell Wilson and was able to trade for Phil Rivers.

Wilson started cold and Phil started hot. Took a week or two change from Russell to Phil and then later in the year once the Chargers O-Line and WRs got decimated with injuries as Wilson began to take-off I switched back and that helped drive another championship.

Didn't take anyone's advice but Phil has been a solid FF QB the past few years and I really like the combo of a solid older vet paired with a young emerging QB.

 

[CalBear]

Wilson started cold and Phil started hot. Took a week or two change from Russell to Phil and then later in the year once the Chargers O-Line and WRs got decimated with injuries as Wilson began to take-off I switched back and that helped drive another championship.

Didn't take anyone's advice but Phil has been a solid FF QB the past few years and I really like the combo of a solid older vet paired with a young emerging QB.

I've got nothing against Rivers, but he was drafted as a marginal QB1/good QB2 and that's how he performed. You could have gotten that out of Eli Manning or Joe Flacco (minus injured weeks) too. Or a lot better from a bunch of guys later in the draft.

 

[mr roboto]

Final tally:

Rivers: Predicted top 5, actual QB11

Duke Johnson: Predicted top 15, actual RB37

Knile Davis: Predicted RB12-16, actual RB110

Allen Hurns: Predicted top 25-30, actual WR14

Marcus Wheaton: Predicted top 20, actual WR40

Ladarius Green: Predicted top 5, actual TE22

So, Otis gets his first actual hit in human history. But, he got it by making a shark pick; FBG had Hurns valued significantly above his ADP as well.

Rivers, Duke and Wheaton all outperformed their ADP.

And Knile was picked on the basis of being the backup in KC. It ended up being the wrong guy, but folks who had West and Ware did alright.

Exhibig A why people hate lawyers. Even when they know they're wrong they still argue.

 

[Otis]

I'd like to see everyone of you criticizing to make the same number of picks next year and do better

Doing better than hitting on one out of 25 (that's about Otis' rate in the past five years) is not difficult.

Weren't you the guy who was telling me Frank Gore at the beginning of his career was a bump, when Coach Otis was telling you, and Joe Bryant, and everyone else that Gore was going to be a stud in this league?

 

[CalBear]

I'd like to see everyone of you criticizing to make the same number of picks next year and do better

Doing better than hitting on one out of 25 (that's about Otis' rate in the past five years) is not difficult.

Weren't you the guy who was telling me Frank Gore at the beginning of his career was a bump, when Coach Otis was telling you, and Joe Bryant, and everyone else that Gore was going to be a stud in this league?

Nope, you must be confusing me with someone else who got a player evaluation wrong once, 10 years ago.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

Wilson started cold and Phil started hot. Took a week or two change from Russell to Phil and then later in the year once the Chargers O-Line and WRs got decimated with injuries as Wilson began to take-off I switched back and that helped drive another championship.

Didn't take anyone's advice but Phil has been a solid FF QB the past few years and I really like the combo of a solid older vet paired with a young emerging QB.

I've got nothing against Rivers, but he was drafted as a marginal QB1/good QB2 and that's how he performed. You could have gotten that out of Eli Manning or Joe Flacco (minus injured weeks) too. Or a lot better from a bunch of guys later in the draft.

For the first half of the 2015 he performed far better than marginal QB 2.

SD QB Phil Rivers over the first 8 games:

- 2,750 yards or 343.75 per game average

- 18 TDs for 2.24 TDs per game average

Final 8 games:

- 2,039 yards or 254.875 per game average

- 11 TDs for a 1.37 TD per game average

 

[CalBear]

Wilson started cold and Phil started hot. Took a week or two change from Russell to Phil and then later in the year once the Chargers O-Line and WRs got decimated with injuries as Wilson began to take-off I switched back and that helped drive another championship.

Didn't take anyone's advice but Phil has been a solid FF QB the past few years and I really like the combo of a solid older vet paired with a young emerging QB.

I've got nothing against Rivers, but he was drafted as a marginal QB1/good QB2 and that's how he performed. You could have gotten that out of Eli Manning or Joe Flacco (minus injured weeks) too. Or a lot better from a bunch of guys later in the draft.

For the first half of the 2015 he performed far better than marginal QB 2.

SD QB Phil Rivers over the first 8 games:

- 2,750 yards or 343.75 per game average

- 18 TDs for 2.24 TDs per game average

Final 8 games:

- 2,039 yards or 254.875 per game average

- 11 TDs for a 1.37 TD per game average

I said marginal QB1/good QB2. A marginal QB1 will have some stretches where he puts up good QB1 numbers, and some where he doesn't; that's why he's marginal. Blake Bortles and Kirk Cousins were top-5 fantasy QBs over the last half of the season, but I wouldn't call either of them a good QB1.

 

[Arodin]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

In counterpoint, I won one championship with four Otis players: Rivers, Johnson, Davis and Green.

Disingenuous though...Davis was traded early for Johnson so never saw the field, and Green stayed firmly on the bench.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Coach Otis nailed Hurns here.

Agreed. And Wheaton clinched a playoff spot for me in week 11. Thanks, Coach!!!

 

[dickey moe]

Like my brethren cast of hawks die-hards, I look forward to this every year with bated breath.

Even the long delay didn't phase me -- I knew it was just part of the hawk psychology, letting everyone frantically collect ADP and Top 200 lists while I sat by idly sharpening my talons, waiting for the rallying screech from The Almighty Alpha Hawk Otis for us to take flight and, like the Mighty Icarus, touch the sun with gilded wings (or flame out spectacularly in a ball of hellfire trying).

But I feel a little let down with this clutch of info-eggs. The brood this season isn't as strong.

I guess I was used to the kind of Ferruginous hawk advice of years' past -- big, bold bets that strike like a giant brown bolt out of the semi-arid sky, bringing down teams as powerful as Golden eagles or thwarting cunning snipers who keep one eye on the waiver wire like so many Great Horned Owls.

This was the advice that toppled other birds of prey from their roosts by a counter-intuitive thunderclap of taking an untested WR3 who sits behind two aging stars, or correctly identifying the right sleeper out of the tens of preseason wannabes with sharp, raptor eyes.

I would also be fine with the kind of Red Tailed Hawk advice doled out in the past -- constructing a team that looks as puzzling and varied as the myriad lands this hawk dwells upon. Enduring the dry desert of forgoing any running back until the 5th round; loading up on mid-tier TEs with huge upside like so many riberries from the tropical rainforests of the meso-Americas.

This kind of advice enabled you to soar the heavenly aeries, or like the Red Tailed Hawk, dive to the cellar at over 120 mph. Either way, you were in for a thrilling ride that made all the other mangy rodents and foul weasels in your league tremble before your majestic shadow overhead while you did it.

But this year's advice is kind of like a Swainsons Hawk -- smaller, dull of feather and claw. Preferring the bland grassland habitat of known upside sleepers like Wheaton and Green; safe in its nest of vanilla selections like Rivers and flex contributors like Duke Johnson.

Maybe it's just this old bird getting older and jaded. Maybe the sheer thrill of previous hunts have made me too desensitized to this years' genius. Or maybe it's just that this year's advice seems more cobbled together last-minute than usual. Either way, I'm just not inspired as I was in years' past.

Don't get me wrong, I will still join the Otis-led echelon in the Yearly Great Migration to another championship. How could you not when faced with such ongoing Delphic predictions of genius?

But my Hawk Screech won't be as shrill this year.

This post deserves more love.Signed,

Buteo regalis

 

[Otis]

Coach Otis nailed Hurns here.

Agreed. And Wheaton clinched a playoff spot for me in week 11. Thanks, Coach!!!

you are welcome my feathered friend.

 

[Otis]

By the way, my interns are way out ahead of next year's edition. We already have some favorites brewed up for you. Oh baby. This is gonna be BIG.

 

[BassNBrew]

I'd like to see everyone of you criticizing to make the same number of picks next year and do better

Just give me Dodds projections as they beat the Coach every year.

 

[BassNBrew]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

I agree, it's a lot easier to pick the entire field than to pick a few names each season.

With the benefit of hindsight picking the field becomes much easier.

I'll put my stray dog up against the Caoch next year and spots the Coach three hits. She'll sniff out the talent the Hawks miss and knows better than to dine on turds.

 

[BassNBrew]

Best part about the Coach's advice is that you know he'll pick the wrong backup RB every year. He has an uncanny knack for this 4-5 years running. Scoop up the bench fodder he doesn't touch and you'll have a solid RB.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

I agree, it's a lot easier to pick the entire field than to pick a few names each season.

With the benefit of hindsight picking the field becomes much easier.

I'll put my stray dog up against the Caoch next year and spots the Coach three hits. She'll sniff out the talent the Hawks miss and knows better than to dine on turds.

Let's do it!

 

[BassNBrew]

Coach…get this guy on your staff asap.

https://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?/topic/730156-trips-top-5-overvalued/

 

[Biabreakable]

Don't blame me for you losing your league, fish.

As I predicted at the beginning of the season: Zero overlap with Otis = championship.

I agree, it's a lot easier to pick the entire field than to pick a few names each season.

With the benefit of hindsight picking the field becomes much easier.

I'll put my stray dog up against the Caoch next year and spots the Coach three hits. She'll sniff out the talent the Hawks miss and knows better than to dine on turds.

Let's do it!

Agreed. BasssNBrew's stray dog would be a welcome installment.

(don't tell Bass but dogs eat poo poo when he isn't looking)