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2015 Fanduel -- Week 1 (1 Viewer)

Starting to get a little hesitant on Miller. I've been reading that the match-up against the Redskins isn't that great against the run. He's got a lot in common with Forsett. Both backs have zero competition for touches, both are on the road and have pretty solid floors. Both should handle a high number of rushes and receptions. I guess both are still solid cash plays, and are priced like borderline RB1/RB2s in the $7000s.

As Miller's favor goes down, Ivory's goes up. He's got virtually all the same positives as the above, but is playing at home, against a (much) worse defense than either of the Broncos or Redskins (against the run). And is also priced like a borderline RB3. He's probably just as good as Miller as a floor for cash games, but arguably better for tourneys as he looks to have a lower ownership percentage (ballpark 15% for Miller vs 8% for Ivory). But I think Ivory is one of the risers in ownership percentages by Sunday. Forsett is, surprisingly, only 11th in ownership percentage (around 5%), probably due to modest ceiling. Going back through a few lineups and swapping in some Ivory for Miller in a few spots.

Problem now is that there's so much value, makes it hard to use all that cap space! Not necessarily for GPPs, but across the board there are so many guys with super low prices: Taylor, Ivory, Adams, Stevie, McManus, Jets. Finding room on almost every lineup for some combo of Dez/ODB (or both). Here's a pretty stacked at WR Taylor GPP lineup:

Taylor

Forsett, Ivory (Forsett at 5%)

ODB, Dez, Cobb (Cobb at just 2%)

Olsen, McM, Jets (loss leaders, not unique)

Per the 'Crusher, this is 1/207k for Uniqueness (I assume based on projected ownership % rather than TNF data).

For comparison, this fairly 'chalk' lineup has a much higher Uniqueness (based on the 'Crusher):

Tannehill (will he really stay below 2% by Sunday?)

Forsett/Ivory

Dez/Landry/Matthews (stack with Landry also gives some uniqueness, Matthews a loss leader)

Olsen, Crosby, Jets (only Crosby here is unique)

Projected at 1 / 3.1 million. Not sure about the GPP upside here of some of these plays (21 points for Landry? 23.4 for Forsett?)

 
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Lacy had 50-54% ownership in those GPP and cash games I entered last night. I expect that to drop a little on Sunday but that is NBA DFS-esque ... and indicates a fade in GPP play but a pretty safe play for cash.

Read earlier about this results against the Bears last year and Rodgers history of wearing the Bears lock a sock via Joe T. The Bears appear to be bad on defense ... really bad ... and the Packers are down a Nelson with a gimpy Cobb ... giggle ... and I think game script is let's get the win on the road in division and get out healthy. Enter a load of Lacy.

This is where I differ in cash games with high totals. I used Brady, D Lewis and Gronk last night for cash and GPP. Game script called for an blank kicking and highly probable the QB, RB and WR all do well. That stack was a fumble away from disaster but ... yeah ... that TD went to Gronk so all good. Not out of reason to use Rodgers, Lacy and Adams in my opinion but I am looking at Lacy in most cash line-ups.

Like CJ Anderson a lot. Like some Ellington. Like the price/ROI presented on Ivory and Martin.

Only so-so on J Hill, as I think the Raiders make that competitive and there is a division of labor between him and Bernard in this game.

Forte ... if Jeffery is out (currently 50/50 to play) ... and Royal is gimpy ... the Packers have Forte and Bennett to stop. If I am the DC, we are stopping Forte at all cost and letting a Black Unicorn loose to try and score 30 against us. That's just me. By default Forte sees the ball I just think he is what the Packers remove first and foremost. Let Royal or less than healthy Jeffery beat you and stop the run.

T Taylor had 25% ownership in my cash games. I am there ... using him for cash in a few line-ups. Colts are missing one DE and Mathis has not played in a season and is no lock to go Sunday. From a Thursday-Sunday perspective ... Taylor paired with Gronk created some amazing line-ups. I feel safe using Taylor in Sunday Only and Sunday-Monday games.

Reading some of what has been written ... souring on Bradford. The Pokes game and Romo, as mentioned, becoming attractive. He only had 2.8% ownership last night. Beason is out. So are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and every body from the practice squad safeties from the Giants. REALLY long night coming chasing Dez around. Still, Bradford's price tag attractive, as is this game total and the eye test from preseason

Adams had 47% ownership

Stevie Johnson 3% ... secret not out

Like all the insight from the group
Most of this I agree with, with varying degrees of conviction. A couple of spots at which I see things a little differently:

Dallas-NYG: I like Romo and Dez for the reasons you say. But I'm not sure Eli and ODB aren't equally good plays, if not better. Dallas's secondary doesn't look good overall and is even worse right now. NYG don't look like they can run the ball. I could see NYG falling behind by 10 to 14 and having Eli sling it all over the yard. As noted by Kirk Goldsberry in a recent Grantland piece:

"When targeting Beckham, Manning had a passer rating of 128.5; when targeting Randle, he had a rating of 75.2. In other words, Manning was better than Aaron Rodgers when targeting Beckham and worse than Geno Smith when throwing to Randle."

Even with Cruz back, I think Eli goes to the freak with a ton of those passes. I also worry about Dallas getting up and working on their running game in the 2nd half.

That said, good Eli giveth and bad Eli taketh away. I'm not sure if I will use Eli in my cash games or not, but he is more appealing than anyone seems to be giving him credit for.

Tyrod Taylor: I know I'm in the minority here, but he's worrisome to me. I get that he's a super-cheap QB who is starting for a team that has some weapons. But the guy was a below-average back-up for years for a reason. In all honesty, how many teams in the NFL would he start for right now other than Buffalo? 1 or 2 max? I see a much worse floor than everyone else seems to be seeing. He might hit "value", but if he doesn't crush "value" I'm not sure he's that worthwhile given the sheer volume of what appear to be attractive cheap plays at RB and WR. In other words, the $3000 in savings might not be quite as valuable this week as in others.

Forte: I'm finding myself more and more drawn to him as an against-the-grain play. I think his real value this week comes as a pass catcher. I agree that GB focuses on him, but teams have been doing that for awhile. I think Cutler has no time to throw downfield, meaning the short stuff and outlets should be commonplace. He may not have a ton of yards rushing, but I can envision a lot of game scripts with him catching 6-8 balls for 70-80 yards. The questions are just how many yards will he find on the ground and/or will he find the endzone.
Agree on Eli. Scandrick per PFF ... only one of 5 CB last season that had 50 balls thrown against them that did not allow a TD. He covered up A LOT of holes n that secondary. Well, he is out and you are right. Giants look like they are going to be down and lots of OBJ, Randle and Vereen. Not sure i would go there for cash but GPP ... makes sense. OBJ for cash ... using him. Expect R Randle to have high ownership at WR3 in cash and Eli/OBJ/Donnell or Eli/Randle/Donnell in GPP. Prime time ... W1 ... guys with the itch ... GPP makes total sense

My thoughts on Taylor ... he can turn it over 2x; score once and get 30 yards rushing and 140 yards passing to hit cash value. The Colts are without both starting DE. Mathis is not going to play and or, if he does per Rotoworld, it will be limited. Colts are weak up the middle and Bills have Clay. I see some Zone Read coming. I see some No Huddle coming. I see 2 Read-Run coming ... look long; look short; single side of field neither there run. Only way they win is by getting simple yet creative with Taylor. Against a team weak in the middle; weak at DE and weak at TE with a fast yet untested NFL QB ... why not go college offense against the Colts?

Not a play for everybody but I love him tomorrow.

If you do it right, you can end up with him at QB and your favorite 3 WR in your line-up in addition to one REALLY good RB and one Ivory or Martin. I am going to use another cash line-up without him but I think Taylor works out. Not for those risk adverse.

For the Thurs-Sun Line-ups using Taylor and Gronk ... liking how that is looking headed into tomorrow

Forte for GPP .. why not? For cash? Not liking it at his price tag. I think the biggest benefactor in this game is Bennett. One of those garbage time, meaningless yard halves ... not single quarter ... but a half of football of check down BS. On point about not having time to go downfield. I put him above Olsen, as Scam is a bad road QB and I personally think the Jags D is on the come. Higher game total; at home; could be only healthy target and a better QB ... give me Bennett. Talking cash

CJ Anderson ... Broncos heavy favorites at altitude and at home. Kubiak offense and I think he you see a whole bunch of Anderson. For the Sun-Mon slate not as high on him. For the Sun 4:05/Sun Late ... liking it a lot. Talking cash games. Broncos are minus TJ Ward but are Smith and Aiken really going to beat the Broncos CB all day? Is Forsett really going to get lose against that front 7? Having a hard time seeing both happening.

Think the Broncos hold the ball ... run a bunch ... and like CJ. Broncos D looked absolutely filthy in preseason .. FILTHY ... and Ravens O looked ... meh.

I think CJ, Hill and Forte fit into a preference category. You are either there are or not with them.

 
How do you check ownership percentages?
If you have any Thursday entries, you'll be able to see your own players' ownership percentages (but not other plays until games kick off). Or, you can peruse articles like The Fade (behind pay wall).

 
Miller and Hill are 2 guys Im going to have in cash lineups, as their floor seems very high just based on volume, but I probably wont be playing in GPPs.

Two guys Im pretty contrarian on apparently are Forsett and Brandin Cooks. Im concerned the Broncos offense is alot slower tempo than in years past, which results in Forsett getting fewer carries than expected against a tougher defense than alot of people realize. And Brandin Cooks, just going on his turf/grass splits from last year, feels like alot riskier play than the preseason hype leading into the game.

 
Miller and Hill are 2 guys Im going to have in cash lineups, as their floor seems very high just based on volume, but I probably wont be playing in GPPs.

Two guys Im pretty contrarian on apparently are Forsett and Brandin Cooks. Im concerned the Broncos offense is alot slower tempo than in years past, which results in Forsett getting fewer carries than expected against a tougher defense than alot of people realize. And Brandin Cooks, just going on his turf/grass splits from last year, feels like alot riskier play than the preseason hype leading into the game.
Agree with you here, other than Forsett should double his receptions from last year to 80+ (Forte caught 102!). I think the receptions are what give him a high floor, notwithstanding the matchup or the Baltimore offense. For Cooks, the home away/split is not great either. He's definitely gone from one of my main plays to someone I'm just mixing in (mostly in favor of JMatt and Landry).

 
Lacy had 50-54% ownership in those GPP and cash games I entered last night. I expect that to drop a little on Sunday but that is NBA DFS-esque ... and indicates a fade in GPP play but a pretty safe play for cash.

Read earlier about this results against the Bears last year and Rodgers history of wearing the Bears lock a sock via Joe T. The Bears appear to be bad on defense ... really bad ... and the Packers are down a Nelson with a gimpy Cobb ... giggle ... and I think game script is let's get the win on the road in division and get out healthy. Enter a load of Lacy.

This is where I differ in cash games with high totals. I used Brady, D Lewis and Gronk last night for cash and GPP. Game script called for an blank kicking and highly probable the QB, RB and WR all do well. That stack was a fumble away from disaster but ... yeah ... that TD went to Gronk so all good. Not out of reason to use Rodgers, Lacy and Adams in my opinion but I am looking at Lacy in most cash line-ups.

Like CJ Anderson a lot. Like some Ellington. Like the price/ROI presented on Ivory and Martin.

Only so-so on J Hill, as I think the Raiders make that competitive and there is a division of labor between him and Bernard in this game.

Forte ... if Jeffery is out (currently 50/50 to play) ... and Royal is gimpy ... the Packers have Forte and Bennett to stop. If I am the DC, we are stopping Forte at all cost and letting a Black Unicorn loose to try and score 30 against us. That's just me. By default Forte sees the ball I just think he is what the Packers remove first and foremost. Let Royal or less than healthy Jeffery beat you and stop the run.

T Taylor had 25% ownership in my cash games. I am there ... using him for cash in a few line-ups. Colts are missing one DE and Mathis has not played in a season and is no lock to go Sunday. From a Thursday-Sunday perspective ... Taylor paired with Gronk created some amazing line-ups. I feel safe using Taylor in Sunday Only and Sunday-Monday games.

Reading some of what has been written ... souring on Bradford. The Pokes game and Romo, as mentioned, becoming attractive. He only had 2.8% ownership last night. Beason is out. So are 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and every body from the practice squad safeties from the Giants. REALLY long night coming chasing Dez around. Still, Bradford's price tag attractive, as is this game total and the eye test from preseason

Adams had 47% ownership

Stevie Johnson 3% ... secret not out

Like all the insight from the group
Most of this I agree with, with varying degrees of conviction. A couple of spots at which I see things a little differently:

Dallas-NYG: I like Romo and Dez for the reasons you say. But I'm not sure Eli and ODB aren't equally good plays, if not better. Dallas's secondary doesn't look good overall and is even worse right now. NYG don't look like they can run the ball. I could see NYG falling behind by 10 to 14 and having Eli sling it all over the yard. As noted by Kirk Goldsberry in a recent Grantland piece:

"When targeting Beckham, Manning had a passer rating of 128.5; when targeting Randle, he had a rating of 75.2. In other words, Manning was better than Aaron Rodgers when targeting Beckham and worse than Geno Smith when throwing to Randle."

Even with Cruz back, I think Eli goes to the freak with a ton of those passes. I also worry about Dallas getting up and working on their running game in the 2nd half.

That said, good Eli giveth and bad Eli taketh away. I'm not sure if I will use Eli in my cash games or not, but he is more appealing than anyone seems to be giving him credit for.

Tyrod Taylor: I know I'm in the minority here, but he's worrisome to me. I get that he's a super-cheap QB who is starting for a team that has some weapons. But the guy was a below-average back-up for years for a reason. In all honesty, how many teams in the NFL would he start for right now other than Buffalo? 1 or 2 max? I see a much worse floor than everyone else seems to be seeing. He might hit "value", but if he doesn't crush "value" I'm not sure he's that worthwhile given the sheer volume of what appear to be attractive cheap plays at RB and WR. In other words, the $3000 in savings might not be quite as valuable this week as in others.

Forte: I'm finding myself more and more drawn to him as an against-the-grain play. I think his real value this week comes as a pass catcher. I agree that GB focuses on him, but teams have been doing that for awhile. I think Cutler has no time to throw downfield, meaning the short stuff and outlets should be commonplace. He may not have a ton of yards rushing, but I can envision a lot of game scripts with him catching 6-8 balls for 70-80 yards. The questions are just how many yards will he find on the ground and/or will he find the endzone.
Agree on Eli. Scandrick per PFF ... only one of 5 CB last season that had 50 balls thrown against them that did not allow a TD. He covered up A LOT of holes n that secondary. Well, he is out and you are right. Giants look like they are going to be down and lots of OBJ, Randle and Vereen. Not sure i would go there for cash but GPP ... makes sense. OBJ for cash ... using him. Expect R Randle to have high ownership at WR3 in cash and Eli/OBJ/Donnell or Eli/Randle/Donnell in GPP. Prime time ... W1 ... guys with the itch ... GPP makes total sense

My thoughts on Taylor ... he can turn it over 2x; score once and get 30 yards rushing and 140 yards passing to hit cash value. The Colts are without both starting DE. Mathis is not going to play and or, if he does per Rotoworld, it will be limited. Colts are weak up the middle and Bills have Clay. I see some Zone Read coming. I see some No Huddle coming. I see 2 Read-Run coming ... look long; look short; single side of field neither there run. Only way they win is by getting simple yet creative with Taylor. Against a team weak in the middle; weak at DE and weak at TE with a fast yet untested NFL QB ... why not go college offense against the Colts?

Not a play for everybody but I love him tomorrow.

If you do it right, you can end up with him at QB and your favorite 3 WR in your line-up in addition to one REALLY good RB and one Ivory or Martin. I am going to use another cash line-up without him but I think Taylor works out. Not for those risk adverse.

For the Thurs-Sun Line-ups using Taylor and Gronk ... liking how that is looking headed into tomorrow

Forte for GPP .. why not? For cash? Not liking it at his price tag. I think the biggest benefactor in this game is Bennett. One of those garbage time, meaningless yard halves ... not single quarter ... but a half of football of check down BS. On point about not having time to go downfield. I put him above Olsen, as Scam is a bad road QB and I personally think the Jags D is on the come. Higher game total; at home; could be only healthy target and a better QB ... give me Bennett. Talking cash

CJ Anderson ... Broncos heavy favorites at altitude and at home. Kubiak offense and I think he you see a whole bunch of Anderson. For the Sun-Mon slate not as high on him. For the Sun 4:05/Sun Late ... liking it a lot. Talking cash games. Broncos are minus TJ Ward but are Smith and Aiken really going to beat the Broncos CB all day? Is Forsett really going to get lose against that front 7? Having a hard time seeing both happening.

Think the Broncos hold the ball ... run a bunch ... and like CJ. Broncos D looked absolutely filthy in preseason .. FILTHY ... and Ravens O looked ... meh.

I think CJ, Hill and Forte fit into a preference category. You are either there are or not with them.
Really good take and explanation for the take. You may have convinced me on CJ. I'm currently very heavily invested in Lacy -- too invested. My lineups keep coming back around to him. CJ might be a great alternative.

I'm going to somewhat reluctantly run out a Taylor lineup. He lets me go Dez, ODB, Julio at WR. He might suck (I think he will actually), but that trio seems great, especially when I can still come strong at RB1.

 
How are you 1PM Only guys handling that slate? There seems to be no point to Taylor as there are no top WRs to consider. That leaves Tannehill and Rodgers IMO. Cash game error to go Rodgers/Lacy/Adams?

600 leftover:

Rodgers

Lacy

Ivory

Landry

Robinson

Adams

Bennett

Hauschka

Seattle

 
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How are you 1PM Only guys handling that slate? There seems to be no point to Taylor as there are no top WRs to consider. That leaves Tannehill and Rodgers IMO. Cash game error to go Rodgers/Lacy/Adams?

600 leftover:

Rodgers

Lacy

Ivory

Landry

Robinson

Adams

Bennett

Hauschka

Seattle
If he looks peppy and you can handle a potential set-back, Cobb is in play.

You just have to mitigate how many Packers you use or do you?

I built the same line-up. You can tinker around but, opinion, those players with Cobb, Olsen and Jets D are your cash guys. Oh, and Rodgers, Tannehill or ...

Tyrod

G Roman ... The man who brought you C Kap. Yeah, Kap's soured but remember that first year? Remember how good he and Davis looked?

Tyrod to Clay

Sorry ... Couldn't help it. Given the cash handy in that early slate ... Rodgers is beyond safe and logical play.

 
Anyone running private tourneys for this week? Relatively new to daily and want to avoid these dreaded "bots" and "pros"
Go to the Lobby on Fan Duel

Select League and or 50/50 Multiplier

Set the Entry fee in the $1-$5 range

MANY single entry, non pro events

Find the 100 man, single entry 50/50 ... safe zone in that price range
This. Single entry double ups at any number of entrants are generally safe at that price point as well.
Thanks guys!

 
I think I have settled on 2 cash lineups:

Sunday Only:

Taylor

Lacy

Hill

OBJ

Dez

Adams

Olsen

McManus

Jets

Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets

Any advice? I like Hiil but not sure if he is better than CJ Anderson who could be used in this spot. I also just paid up for Dan Bailey because I had a few extra hundred left over and don't think i can upgrade any position unless I go up from Bradford. Bradford will likely be well owned compared to Stafford, etc.

 
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Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets
My tentative Bradford lineup is similar. I have Dez instead of Julio just to diversify my game exposure, but Julio is in my tentative Taylor cash lineup. I'm trying to keep my Adams exposure down somewhat, especially in my lineups with Lacy, but he looks to be the safest play in recent cash game history.

 
Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets
My tentative Bradford lineup is similar. I have Dez instead of Julio just to diversify my game exposure, but Julio is in my tentative Taylor cash lineup. I'm trying to keep my Adams exposure down somewhat, especially in my lineups with Lacy, but he looks to be the safest play in recent cash game history.
The thing with Adams is that he is more of a percentage pick than anything else. He is going to be very highly owned so if he scores big you are going to want him, but if he does not score big he won't hurt you.

 
Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets
My tentative Bradford lineup is similar. I have Dez instead of Julio just to diversify my game exposure, but Julio is in my tentative Taylor cash lineup. I'm trying to keep my Adams exposure down somewhat, especially in my lineups with Lacy, but he looks to be the safest play in recent cash game history.
The thing with Adams is that he is more of a percentage pick than anything else. He is going to be very highly owned so if he scores big you are going to want him, but if he does not score big he won't hurt you.
Agreed I don't see how with likely really high ownership you can keep him out of cash game lineups. But fading him in GPP is certainly a play to use sometimes.

 
Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets
My tentative Bradford lineup is similar. I have Dez instead of Julio just to diversify my game exposure, but Julio is in my tentative Taylor cash lineup. I'm trying to keep my Adams exposure down somewhat, especially in my lineups with Lacy, but he looks to be the safest play in recent cash game history.
The thing with Adams is that he is more of a percentage pick than anything else. He is going to be very highly owned so if he scores big you are going to want him, but if he does not score big he won't hurt you.
Exactly. Which is why I called him the safet cash game play in recent memory.

On more of a football analysis, I'm actually considering getting some exposure on Rodgers instead of Adams in at least 1 lineup because I can see A.A. Ron Rodgers looking to him instead of Adams/Janis as a #2 option.

 
I think I have settled on 2 cash lineups:

Sunday Only:

Taylor

Lacy

Hill

OBJ

Dez

Adams

Olsen

McManus

Jets

Regular:

Bradford

Lacy

Miller

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen

Dan Bailey

Jets

Any advice? I like Hiil but not sure if he is better than CJ Anderson who could be used in this spot. I also just paid up for Dan Bailey because I had a few extra hundred left over and don't think i can upgrade any position unless I go up from Bradford. Bradford will likely be well owned compared to Stafford, etc.
I have enjoyed this forum so much that I had to sign up. A lot of you guys are making great points and counterpoints. I had to quote this post because based on the lineup, I can tell that this guy has put in his hours. I know that I have and interestingly, I have the exact same lineup. We win or lose together, brother!

 
Which of the two? I have nervously optimistic. When making these lineups you keep thinking am I not playing a better option, but I feel these two lineups are pretty solid in general.

 
Got in on some sweet overlays at Yahoo:

$25 GPP = 65% filled, pays out top 38.5% now

$10 GPP = 68% filled, pays out top 37% now

$5 GPP = 60 % filled, pays out top 41.6% now

 
You'd have a good start if you had James Jones, Kleece and Tyrod at QB right now.Sadly, other then Tyrod in one lineup I don't have the others. :kicksrock:

 
In Bradford lineup I doubt I win because I have Lamar Miller and Olsen. The game script went away from Miami, they were down 0-10. Need to be careful when picking against great rushing defense. It is usually a losing proposition because the RB can't get good yardage and probably won't score.

Olsen also did nothing. My Taylor lineup could still cash with Olsen, hopefully Hill has a great game compared to what Lamar did.

 
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I'm rolling with Doug Martin, Ameer Abdullah, and Tyler Eifert almost everywhere. Gonna play a big role in determining what kind of day I have.

 
Fantasysports1 said:
In Bradford lineup I doubt I win because I have Lamar Miller and Olsen. The game script went away from Miami, they were down 0-10. Need to be careful when picking against great rushing defense. It is usually a losing proposition because the RB can't get good yardage and probably won't score.

Olsen also did nothing. My Taylor lineup could still cash with Olsen, hopefully Hill has a great game compared to what Lamar did.
Olsen was a real let down. Bradford - Matthews can still hit and having Julio helps.

 
snogger said:
You'd have a good start if you had James Jones, Kleece and Tyrod at QB right now.Sadly, other then Tyrod in one lineup I don't have the others. :kicksrock:
Ok, at least so far, it looks like Mariota was the play at QB... through 2 quarters.. 175 yards 4 TD's :eek:

 
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What happened with Olsen? Was he helping pass block? double covered? He was a lock on my and many other people's lineups without much thinking and was such a letdown.

 
What happened with Olsen? Was he helping pass block? double covered? He was a lock on my and many other people's lineups without much thinking and was such a letdown.
Hindsight being 20/20 I guess we should have seen no other receiving options, Ted Ginn is one of the starting WR :X , then the D knows who to triple team... after the breakout of 2 or 3 others I'll be fading him for a bit.
 
EBF said:
I'm rolling with Doug Martin, Ameer Abdullah, and Tyler Eifert almost everywhere. Gonna play a big role in determining what kind of day I have.
Could've been a brilliant week for me, but the TB/TEN game went about the opposite of how I expected. Thought it would be Mariota who would struggle. Doug didn't have much of a chance to do anything. Still very pleased with the Abdullah/Eifert calls. Big value. Also had Stevie Johnson as my flex in every DraftKings team, which worked out well.

As of right this minute I am on track for a modest profit this week. Got Calvin'd in a few leagues and also swapped out Eifert for Olsen in a couple lineups. Woops. Still have Julio and Dez going in a number of entries where I didn't pick Megatron. That's where my hope is.

 
T Taylor ... Boom!

He was on 37/40 H2H games I entered by both owners.

The kid actually looked good today

Kelce ... 4% and anyone that went there for cash ... Chiefs Fan; squirrel found nut, as Olsen was on 58% of teams and, then, Bennett and some Eifert/Walker/Jenkins

Eifert ... Finally!!!! Please stay healthy

The Giants/Pokes at a current pace to kill a lot of teams

 
Got in on some sweet overlays at Yahoo:

$25 GPP = 65% filled, pays out top 38.5% now

$10 GPP = 68% filled, pays out top 37% now

$5 GPP = 60 % filled, pays out top 41.6% now
FantasyDraft had basically the same overlays. Unfortunately I don't think any of them will let it happen again in week 2.

 
T Taylor ... Boom!

He was on 37/40 H2H games I entered by both owners.

The kid actually looked good today

Kelce ... 4% and anyone that went there for cash ... Chiefs Fan; squirrel found nut, as Olsen was on 58% of teams and, then, Bennett and some Eifert/Walker/Jenkins

Eifert ... Finally!!!! Please stay healthy

The Giants/Pokes at a current pace to kill a lot of teams
The Dallas game will obliterate 2 of my lineups at this pace. I think (hope) things will open up a bit.

 
Right there with you

Sitting on

Taylor

Lacy/Ameer

Dez/Julio/OBJ

Eifert

McManus

Jets

Sort of banking on those 3 WR at this stage of the weekend

 
I don't even know what to make of that Dallas game. Some of the most bone-headed decisions by players and Coughlin I can remember seeing.

 
As of now I would be losing money but almost all lineups had either Bradford or Ryan at QB and more than half had Julio so its all going to come down to tonight.

 
Sunday Only: 109 Points cash

Taylor

Lacy

Hill

OBJ

Dez

Adams

Olsen

McManus

Jets

Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.

Bradford

Lacy

Miller 8

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen 2

Dan Bailey

Jets

Had a bit more of the Bradford lineup in cash games. I think making lineups is tough because you have to try to create a near optimal lineup. You have to figure which players are most likely going to do well, like Jeremy Hill. Its tricky because once I go with Bradford, Lacy, Adams, Matthews and Olsen, it really limits who I can use at # 2 RB. I admit seeing Ivory bruise his way while Lamar Miller had like 3 yards at halftime was frustrating because he was cheaper.

A lot depends on game script, if Jets fell behind it would be different. You have to recognize prime matchups and players with heavy workload. Lamar should have gotten more work though and Miami played a wierd game where they fell behind 0-10 and they didn't get much offense going the whole game. Still Washington has a strong rush defense. It can happen to any RB because even clear favorites can fall behind and the run game is dashed. Also note which teams use their RBs no matter if they fall behind so a Forte is safe but Lamar maybe not so much as seen in week 1.

 
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Hits: Taylor, Ivory, Stevie, Landry, McManus, Panthers, Jets

Misses: Tannehill, Miller, Adams, Olsen (!), Vjax, Dez and ODB

Currently up somehow, although Matthews is my highest owned player still to go. Also got a lot on Bradford, some on AP and Julio, and a tiny hedge on Ryan.

 
Well, my Thursday cash lineup is a lock to rake (including quintuple-ups) (138.1 and counting).

After that, well, it's a bit of a different story.

My Romo lineup is sitting at 82.64 with Demarco and Julio left to play. ODB was the big blow in that one.

My Bradford lineup is sitting at 90.9 with just Bradford left to play. Olsen, Dez, and Calvin combined to hurt me in that one.

My Tyrod lineup is a guarantee whiff even though I still have Julio to go. ODB, Calvin, and CJ destroyed me in that one.

I'm still hanging around the fringes of several GPPs. If I can just squeak into hitting my doubles and triples on the Romo lineup (cut lines currently just 86-93 for all of them, but will jump tonight) I will come out OK I think. Somewhat unbelievably (to me anyway) I'm actually up at this moment, but lots of folks are invested in Phi-Atl.

 
Best lineup( so far) was my last minute decision for a Thursday -Monday Triple up:

Currently at 134.12 with DeMarco Murray left..

QB Tom Brady
RB Ameer Abdullah
WR Dez Bryant
WR Markus Wheaton
WR Davante Adams
TE Rob Gronkowski
K Brandon McManus
D New York Jets

Currently 55th, need to stay in the top 150 to cash out.. :popcorn:

 
The aftermath of the Dez & OBJ debacle ... just bad, bad, bad

Will still have a really good day but went into a 3 Sunday Only GPP inside the Top 20 and only player that had both of those WR ... 13 points ... bad, bad, bad

For cash games the sheer volume of people using Olsen, Dez, OBJ and D Adams will help limit just how badly yesterday could have gone. Just saw the news on Dez. Horrible news and tough Sunday for skill position injuries.

 
Sunday Only: 109 Points cash

Taylor

Lacy

Hill

OBJ

Dez

Adams

Olsen

McManus

Jets

Regular: Around 60 points, think if three MNF players have big game could still win some of my cash games, maybe most. A lot of top WRs had subpar games. Miller had 8 and Olsen about 2, lets see if I can comeback. Obviously if Bradford goes crazy with Matthews and Julio has a huge game I should win some of them.

Bradford

Lacy

Miller 8

Julio

Matthews

Adams

Olsen 2

Dan Bailey

Jets

Had a bit more of the Bradford lineup in cash games. I think making lineups is tough because you have to try to create a near optimal lineup. You have to figure which players are most likely going to do well, like Jeremy Hill. Its tricky because once I go with Bradford, Lacy, Adams, Matthews and Olsen, it really limits who I can use at # 2 RB. I admit seeing Ivory bruise his way while Lamar Miller had like 3 yards at halftime was frustrating because he was cheaper.

A lot depends on game script, if Jets fell behind it would be different. You have to recognize prime matchups and players with heavy workload. Lamar should have gotten more work though and Miami played a wierd game where they fell behind 0-10 and they didn't get much offense going the whole game. Still Washington has a strong rush defense. It can happen to any RB because even clear favorites can fall behind and the run game is dashed. Also note which teams use their RBs no matter if they fall behind so a Forte is safe but Lamar maybe not so much as seen in week 1.
Washington does have an above average run D (12th in 2014) but i blame the coaching staff. The Dolphins had something like 5 rushes at halftime. They went away from running the ball way to early.

 
Sitting at 98.5 and done with my Tyrod lineups. Currently winning all of them but I see many folks behind me with bguys going tonight at QB and WR. No idea if I'll still be in the money but probably not.

Good thing I entered a bunch of Brady/Gronk lineups to hedge.

 

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