karmarooster
Footballguy
Starting to get a little hesitant on Miller. I've been reading that the match-up against the Redskins isn't that great against the run. He's got a lot in common with Forsett. Both backs have zero competition for touches, both are on the road and have pretty solid floors. Both should handle a high number of rushes and receptions. I guess both are still solid cash plays, and are priced like borderline RB1/RB2s in the $7000s.
As Miller's favor goes down, Ivory's goes up. He's got virtually all the same positives as the above, but is playing at home, against a (much) worse defense than either of the Broncos or Redskins (against the run). And is also priced like a borderline RB3. He's probably just as good as Miller as a floor for cash games, but arguably better for tourneys as he looks to have a lower ownership percentage (ballpark 15% for Miller vs 8% for Ivory). But I think Ivory is one of the risers in ownership percentages by Sunday. Forsett is, surprisingly, only 11th in ownership percentage (around 5%), probably due to modest ceiling. Going back through a few lineups and swapping in some Ivory for Miller in a few spots.
Problem now is that there's so much value, makes it hard to use all that cap space! Not necessarily for GPPs, but across the board there are so many guys with super low prices: Taylor, Ivory, Adams, Stevie, McManus, Jets. Finding room on almost every lineup for some combo of Dez/ODB (or both). Here's a pretty stacked at WR Taylor GPP lineup:
Taylor
Forsett, Ivory (Forsett at 5%)
ODB, Dez, Cobb (Cobb at just 2%)
Olsen, McM, Jets (loss leaders, not unique)
Per the 'Crusher, this is 1/207k for Uniqueness (I assume based on projected ownership % rather than TNF data).
For comparison, this fairly 'chalk' lineup has a much higher Uniqueness (based on the 'Crusher):
Tannehill (will he really stay below 2% by Sunday?)
Forsett/Ivory
Dez/Landry/Matthews (stack with Landry also gives some uniqueness, Matthews a loss leader)
Olsen, Crosby, Jets (only Crosby here is unique)
Projected at 1 / 3.1 million. Not sure about the GPP upside here of some of these plays (21 points for Landry? 23.4 for Forsett?)
As Miller's favor goes down, Ivory's goes up. He's got virtually all the same positives as the above, but is playing at home, against a (much) worse defense than either of the Broncos or Redskins (against the run). And is also priced like a borderline RB3. He's probably just as good as Miller as a floor for cash games, but arguably better for tourneys as he looks to have a lower ownership percentage (ballpark 15% for Miller vs 8% for Ivory). But I think Ivory is one of the risers in ownership percentages by Sunday. Forsett is, surprisingly, only 11th in ownership percentage (around 5%), probably due to modest ceiling. Going back through a few lineups and swapping in some Ivory for Miller in a few spots.
Problem now is that there's so much value, makes it hard to use all that cap space! Not necessarily for GPPs, but across the board there are so many guys with super low prices: Taylor, Ivory, Adams, Stevie, McManus, Jets. Finding room on almost every lineup for some combo of Dez/ODB (or both). Here's a pretty stacked at WR Taylor GPP lineup:
Taylor
Forsett, Ivory (Forsett at 5%)
ODB, Dez, Cobb (Cobb at just 2%)
Olsen, McM, Jets (loss leaders, not unique)
Per the 'Crusher, this is 1/207k for Uniqueness (I assume based on projected ownership % rather than TNF data).
For comparison, this fairly 'chalk' lineup has a much higher Uniqueness (based on the 'Crusher):
Tannehill (will he really stay below 2% by Sunday?)
Forsett/Ivory
Dez/Landry/Matthews (stack with Landry also gives some uniqueness, Matthews a loss leader)
Olsen, Crosby, Jets (only Crosby here is unique)
Projected at 1 / 3.1 million. Not sure about the GPP upside here of some of these plays (21 points for Landry? 23.4 for Forsett?)
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