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**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (3 Viewers)

Current defensive metrics are all we have so that's what we can make observations from. Until they come out with the defensive f/x models, which are coming soon, we'll have to go with them and the eye test. Some people want to make them work for one guy and not another though so I guess you have to pick your poison and stick with it, especially if a SS you are always bashing has great UZR numbers.

BP had a great article on Kiermaier showing his defensive value with and without metrics, his DRS and UZR numbers are off the chart and the eye test agrees with those lofty numbers.

I'm pretty sure they deployed defensive f/x cameras this year so maybe when the seasons over we'll see what they found.

 
I actually agree with you about defensive outliers like KK, but Ya... Votto is having a better year than McCutcheon or Machado.

 
cheese said:
I actually agree with you about defensive outliers like KK, but Ya... Votto is having a better year than McCutcheon or Machado.
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Walking more than you K is pretty good shtick in today's game for sure. I'd take Cutch or Machado over him any day of the week as overall players though.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Current defensive metrics are all we have so that's what we can make observations from. Until they come out with the defensive f/x models, which are coming soon, we'll have to go with them and the eye test. Some people want to make them work for one guy and not another though so I guess you have to pick your poison and stick with it, especially if a SS you are always bashing has great UZR numbers.

BP had a great article on Kiermaier showing his defensive value with and without metrics, his DRS and UZR numbers are off the chart and the eye test agrees with those lofty numbers.

I'm pretty sure they deployed defensive f/x cameras this year so maybe when the seasons over we'll see what they found.
Click to expand...
I'm just glad they're figuring out some way to try to quantify defensive contributions to the game. That's right in my wheelhouse as far as baseball interest goes.

I just shake my head that the Red Sox "clickclickclicked" their computer numbers and thought playing Hanley in LF was a remotely positive idea. (Of course, I'm not a Sox fan, so mostly I just use it to torment my friends and co-workers ... but as a baseball fan, it infuriates me nonetheless).

 
The post-Zduriencik era in Seattle begins with the demotion of Mike Zunino. Zunino has been beyond terrible for sure but what's the point in demoting a player on August 28th. :shrug: They're bringing up CA John Hicks who's hitting .245/.282/.362 in the Coast League so it seems like a pretty lateral move.

 
Dickie Dunn said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Current defensive metrics are all we have so that's what we can make observations from. Until they come out with the defensive f/x models, which are coming soon, we'll have to go with them and the eye test. Some people want to make them work for one guy and not another though so I guess you have to pick your poison and stick with it, especially if a SS you are always bashing has great UZR numbers.

BP had a great article on Kiermaier showing his defensive value with and without metrics, his DRS and UZR numbers are off the chart and the eye test agrees with those lofty numbers.

I'm pretty sure they deployed defensive f/x cameras this year so maybe when the seasons over we'll see what they found.
Click to expand...
I'm just glad they're figuring out some way to try to quantify defensive contributions to the game. That's right in my wheelhouse as far as baseball interest goes.

I just shake my head that the Red Sox "clickclickclicked" their computer numbers and thought playing Hanley in LF was a remotely positive idea. (Of course, I'm not a Sox fan, so mostly I just use it to torment my friends and co-workers ... but as a baseball fan, it infuriates me nonetheless).
Click to expand...
Predicting IF to OF switches is probably going to remain outside the realm of defensive analytics. At best, they can quantify the talent playing a specific (or closely related) defensive position. There's no obvious reason for Hanley to have failed so badly. He's never been a plus defender anywhere but he can still run and has a decent arm. If he continued to hit, I think he would have been tolerable in LF but he didn't and the ship went down with him.

I'm not convinced he'll be any better at 1B. It seems like a lot of his troubles in the IF were concentration lapses and positioning issues. He's going to face yet another position switch at age 32. The footwork will be totally different and handling errant throws could expose him.

 
cheese said:
Doctor Detroit said:
cheese said:
I actually agree with you about defensive outliers like KK, but Ya... Votto is having a better year than McCutcheon or Machado.
Click to expand...
Walking more than you K is pretty good shtick in today's game for sure. I'd take Cutch or Machado over him any day of the week as overall players though.
Click to expand...
Based on what? Position? Offensively, I don't think its very close. Defensively, who knows.
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I mean, if I were starting a team I would too, but only because Votto's much older than the other two. And because from a marketing standpoint the other two are far more exciting.

But if I'm just trying to win this one season and I get the exact same level of talent at all of my other spots in either case...I don't understand why you wouldn't take Votto for the year. You're kind of just giving up additional net runs because of...no reason? Help me understand.

 
You wouldn't take Votto because its a lot easier to find a replacement at 1b than it is at CF or 3b. Almost all of Votto's above average value lies in his BB rate. His ISO is .240, Cutch is at .220 after a horrible first two months, and Macado is at .212 with six more homers. Machado is also one of the best defensive players in the game and will steal 20+ bases.

So I'll concede Votto is a better offensive player, but the discussion dealt with overall value. Machado and Cutch are better players because they play premium positions.

 
Eephus said:
Dickie Dunn said:
Doctor Detroit said:
Current defensive metrics are all we have so that's what we can make observations from. Until they come out with the defensive f/x models, which are coming soon, we'll have to go with them and the eye test. Some people want to make them work for one guy and not another though so I guess you have to pick your poison and stick with it, especially if a SS you are always bashing has great UZR numbers.

BP had a great article on Kiermaier showing his defensive value with and without metrics, his DRS and UZR numbers are off the chart and the eye test agrees with those lofty numbers.

I'm pretty sure they deployed defensive f/x cameras this year so maybe when the seasons over we'll see what they found.
Click to expand...
I'm just glad they're figuring out some way to try to quantify defensive contributions to the game. That's right in my wheelhouse as far as baseball interest goes.

I just shake my head that the Red Sox "clickclickclicked" their computer numbers and thought playing Hanley in LF was a remotely positive idea. (Of course, I'm not a Sox fan, so mostly I just use it to torment my friends and co-workers ... but as a baseball fan, it infuriates me nonetheless).
Click to expand...
Predicting IF to OF switches is probably going to remain outside the realm of defensive analytics. At best, they can quantify the talent playing a specific (or closely related) defensive position. There's no obvious reason for Hanley to have failed so badly. He's never been a plus defender anywhere but he can still run and has a decent arm. If he continued to hit, I think he would have been tolerable in LF but he didn't and the ship went down with him.

I'm not convinced he'll be any better at 1B. It seems like a lot of his troubles in the IF were concentration lapses and positioning issues. He's going to face yet another position switch at age 32. The footwork will be totally different and handling errant throws could expose him.
Click to expand...
1B is basically a white flag, you're just hiding him where he's going to do less damage, but I agree I don't think there's anywhere where he's going to not be horrible. It's not as important as LF or SS/3B.

Of course this takes them out of the running for adding a 1B in free agency, Chris Davis or the korean guy or what have you. Time to pay the piper. I think it's interesting that by going from Epstein to Cherington to Dombrowski, they're kind of headed back down the other direction of the sabrmetric -- olde time baseball scale.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
You wouldn't take Votto because its a lot easier to find a replacement at 1b than it is at CF or 3b. Almost all of Votto's above average value lies in his BB rate. His ISO is .240, Cutch is at .220 after a horrible first two months, and Macado is at .212 with six more homers. Machado is also one of the best defensive players in the game and will steal 20+ bases.

So I'll concede Votto is a better offensive player, but the discussion dealt with overall value. Machado and Cutch are better players because they play premium positions.
Click to expand...
I don't necessarily disagree (Machado's still really young), but Votto has few peers in terms of being an on-base machine. Machado and AM are going to bring way more defense to the table, but Votto could be right there with him based on how much he gets on base.

 
Votto has put up a 170 wRC+ this year. He's is the among the most elite when it comes to offense (not that anyone is disagreeing, I just wanted to state it clearly).

 
shadyridr said:
I think the Pirates are the team to beat
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Toronto is definitely the team to beat.

ETA -- I'm a Pirates fan and this isn't some attempt at a stupid reverse jinx. I firmly believe the Bucs are the best team in the NL but Toronto's lineup is ridiculously loaded, they have a bonafide ace and a good bullpen. Anything can happen but this should be the year for the Blue Jays.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
fred_1_15301 said:
shadyridr said:
I think the Pirates are the team to beat
Click to expand...
Toronto is definitely the team to beat.

ETA -- I'm a Pirates fan and this isn't some attempt at a stupid reverse jinx. I firmly believe the Bucs are the best team in the NL but Toronto's lineup is ridiculously loaded, they have a bonafide ace and a good bullpen. Anything can happen but this should be the year for the Blue Jays.
Click to expand...
pirates depth is unreal and their bullpen is better.
 
shadyridr said:
fred_1_15301 said:
shadyridr said:
I think the Pirates are the team to beat
Click to expand...
Toronto is definitely the team to beat.

ETA -- I'm a Pirates fan and this isn't some attempt at a stupid reverse jinx. I firmly believe the Bucs are the best team in the NL but Toronto's lineup is ridiculously loaded, they have a bonafide ace and a good bullpen. Anything can happen but this should be the year for the Blue Jays.
Click to expand...
pirates depth is unreal and their bullpen is better.
Click to expand...
Pirates have a great bullpen but how exactly is their depth "unreal"? Harrison and Mercer coming back has helped but they're not exactly studs. Other than that, the Pirates bench is pretty bad. The rotation has a ton of question marks and they don't have any realistic options in the minors to help this year (Glasnow is not ready). The starting lineup is very good but not on the same level as Toronto's lineup. Anyways, how important is depth in a short 7 game series?

 
Annyong said:
Cardinals are the best team in the NL, no doubt about it. Pirates are closer to the Cubs than they are the Cards.
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:no: When the Cardinals are healthy, I would agree. Right now, I think the Bucs are better (although it's close). The Bucs have a better lineup and bullpen and while the Cards rotation is better, I think they're overachieving. I read an article that their strand rate is the highest in MLB history. The Cubs will be the team to beat soon enough but they're not as good as the Cards or Bucs just yet.

 
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Addison Russell has a really high baseball IQ and is already a complete player at 21. Cut down on the Ks and I think this is the Cubs best prospect long-term, he's going to be a 10-time all-star.

Also Baez seems to have approved his approach, have those two manning the middle next year and you are better than you are now with Clarice Starling.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Addison Russell has a really high baseball IQ and is already a complete player at 21. Cut down on the Ks and I think this is the Cubs best prospect long-term, he's going to be a 10-time all-star.

Also Baez seems to have approved his approach, have those two manning the middle next year and you are better than you are now with Clarice Starling.
Click to expand...
I love it when you talk like that.
 
The Oakland have over $22M committed next year just on brunch (Coco Crisp and Country Breakfast). That's a ton of money for that organization.

It's interesting to watch Beane's machinations from the other side of the Bay but his hit rate on trades hasn't been great recently. It's kind of sad to go to a game at the Coliseum and see fans wearing jerseys with the names of dearly departed former A's.

 
Eephus said:
The Oakland have over $22M committed next year just on brunch (Coco Crisp and Country Breakfast). That's a ton of money for that organization.

It's interesting to watch Beane's machinations from the other side of the Bay but his hit rate on trades hasn't been great recently. It's kind of sad to go to a game at the Coliseum and see fans wearing jerseys with the names of dearly departed former A's.
Click to expand...
Is it sadder than going to the ballpark and seeing a Tim Lincecum jersey with Tim Lincecum inside of it? The Giants do some things well organizationally (having a lot of money, developing good hitters), but Sabean's cost them a shot in the playoffs by retreading Peavy and Vogelsong.

About that track record: The A's traded prospects and Jaso for Zobrist and then flipped Zobrist and got better prospects back. I would consider that a win. They got Alvarez and Hahn for Norris, who has been terrible. They got rid of Moss, who has also been terrible. They ####### destroyed the White Sox in that Samardjiza deal.

I'm not necessarily against trading Donaldson no matter what, but I think Beane erred in a) not waiting until mid-season, given that Donaldson wasn't going anywhere, value-wise, and b) not waiting to see what Lawrie looked like coming off his injury season. I think it's almost unquestionably going to go down as an L, but given Donaldson's age and rising arbitration costs, that Lawrie at least can field even though his bat's still a mess, and that it's yet to be seen what Oakland has with most of the guys they traded for, history might not judge it as harshly.

To break it down pretty cleanly, here's where Oakland ranked in third-order win percentage in the AL, against their rank in terms of how much money they spent in the AL:

2015: 6th (4th before sell off!) / 13th

2014: 1st / 11th

2013: 4th / 12th

2012: 6th / 15th

And while the Butler/Crisp money looks dead, it's more than offset by how much talent that they have that's arb/pre-arb. Oakland's actually in pretty good shape by Oakland standards, financially.

Beane's not perfect. :shrug:

 
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