**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (2 Viewers)

[Doctor Detroit]

So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.

 

[E-Z Glider]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season.

They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

 

[larch]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season. They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Bonds is the best hitter of our lifetime.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season. They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Bonds is the best hitter of our lifetime.*

 

[Grahamburn]

Preller already trying to dump Kimbrel, Shields, and Cashner, as well as his expirings. TGunz, to the white courtesy phone.

Dave Cameron's completely speculative deal with the Cubs:

[SIZE=110%]Chicago Cubs[/SIZE]

Andrew Cashner, Justin Upton, Joaquin Benoit, Jedd Gyorko

Here’s my speculative blockbuster. The Cubs are in a position to make a run this year, and while they may prefer not to pay a high price for rentals, getting a guy like Cashner back might just be the carrot they need to give the Padres a good return for their other two pieces. And the two teams line up in a lot of ways, with the guys the Padres are selling checking a lot of boxes for the Cubs.

My guess on something this size is that the Cubs would send both Starlin Castro and Javier Baez (along with some lower level guys) to San Diego, as this trade would give the Cubs a guy who could slide in at second base and allow Addison Russell to go back to shortstop. The Padres get a brand new middle infield and get out from under Gyorko’s deal (though they take on Castro’s contract in the process), as well as restock their farm system to some degree, while the Cubs push in heavily on 2015 while also getting a couple of guys who will be around next year as well. Yeah, it’s probably too large and unwieldy a deal to get done in July, but we know A.J. Preller is up for shock-and-awe trades, and maybe Theo Epstein will go along for the ride.

 

[E-Z Glider]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season.

They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Actually, the only number I was looking at were 32 (his age) and 240 (his under-estimated weight). Guys his size dont normally age well. Has nothing to do with how good he is when healthy.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Oh man, don't trade Baez to San Diego please.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Preller already trying to dump Kimbrel, Shields, and Cashner, as well as his expirings. TGunz, to the white courtesy phone.

Dave Cameron's completely speculative deal with the Cubs:

[SIZE=110%]Chicago Cubs[/SIZE]

Andrew Cashner, Justin Upton, Joaquin Benoit, Jedd Gyorko

Here’s my speculative blockbuster. The Cubs are in a position to make a run this year, and while they may prefer not to pay a high price for rentals, getting a guy like Cashner back might just be the carrot they need to give the Padres a good return for their other two pieces. And the two teams line up in a lot of ways, with the guys the Padres are selling checking a lot of boxes for the Cubs.

My guess on something this size is that the Cubs would send both Starlin Castro and Javier Baez (along with some lower level guys) to San Diego, as this trade would give the Cubs a guy who could slide in at second base and allow Addison Russell to go back to shortstop. The Padres get a brand new middle infield and get out from under Gyorko’s deal (though they take on Castro’s contract in the process), as well as restock their farm system to some degree, while the Cubs push in heavily on 2015 while also getting a couple of guys who will be around next year as well. Yeah, it’s probably too large and unwieldy a deal to get done in July, but we know A.J. Preller is up for shock-and-awe trades, and maybe Theo Epstein will go along for the ride.

I think Chicago would make that deal 10 times out of 10. Would depend on the lower-level guys I guess, but at this point with a contending club they probably have a better idea of who's possibly blocked.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season.

They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Actually, the only number I was looking at were 32 (his age) and 240 (his under-estimated weight). Guys his size dont normally age well. Has nothing to do with how good he is when healthy.

You mean like David Ortiz, Jim Thome and Frank Thomas?

 

[E-Z Glider]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season.

They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Actually, the only number I was looking at were 32 (his age) and 240 (his under-estimated weight). Guys his size dont normally age well. Has nothing to do with how good he is when healthy.

You mean like David Ortiz, Jim Thome and Frank Thomas?

Ill give you Ortiz, but dont think Thome or Thomas are good physical comps. Mo Vaughn on the other hand....

Miggy also wont have the benefits of PEDs to keep him going like many of the other recent fatties did.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

I agree that Cabrera's bat is other-worldly and could hold up way into his 30's. Martinez having that phenomenal 2014, at that age, could be a fluke. And even if he does manage to get back to 2014 levels, he, like Miggy, should be a DH.

It's going to be interesting to see how much they spend this off-season.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I agree that Cabrera's bat is other-worldly and could hold up way into his 30's. Martinez having that phenomenal 2014, at that age, could be a fluke. And even if he does manage to get back to 2014 levels, he, like Miggy, should be a DH.

It's going to be interesting to see how much they spend this off-season.

Miggy will be a full time DH at 34 when VMART retires. VMART can flat out hit, last year was definitely an aberration as far as power and I know I didn't expect anything close to that going forward. Something like his career averages

.304 .371 .471 .842 with say 17-22 homers is what I sort of expect. They need to sign JDM long-term, and get some starting pitching from somewhere. What happens in the next five days will determine what happens in the offseason, hard to ever predict what Dombrowski is going to do.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

My phone just had an alert that says they're not selling.

 

[Limp Ditka]

How are Thome and Thomas not good physical comps? Are they too big?

 

[Bogart]

Miggy turns 36 two weeks into the season after VMARTs contract is up. Hopefully he has a few more miles at 1B after 34.

 

[Capella]

I wish I could set my google alerts to "dr Detroit + internet fight"

 

[larch]

anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds.

Howard was never the same after the injury. Something about Miggy makes you think he's immune from injury? He looks to me like exactly the type of player/body type that will not age well.

Cabrera is the best hitter of your lifetime, and he doesn't strike out 200 times over a two year period yet in one season. Cabrera's worst career OPS year was .879, Howards career OPS is .872. He's obviously not immune to injury based on his current status, but if that's the horse you're going to ride then have at it. Cabrera has averaged 155 games played over his career, Howard's reached that number three times in a season. They aren't comparable players, Cabrera is a Hall Of Famer and the best hitter since Ted Williams. Howard is a good player who had three or four terrific seasons.

Bonds is the best hitter of our lifetime.*

He still is.

 

[the moops]

Victorino to LA Angels for Josh Rutledge.

Blockbuster

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Clippard to the Metropolitans for Casey Meisner.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Supposedly Dan O'Dowd thought his mic was cut and dropped some bombs on MLBN. Haven't heard it yet, but did hear the apology

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Farts?

 

[Limp Ditka]

More like

 

[Limp Ditka]

@Seth_SportsTalk: Did Dan ODowd or Joel Sherman just say ####ers live on the mlb network?

 

[Long Ball Larry]

So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.

Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?

I was just saying that they do have a lot of money tied up in a few players and I don't know that they are really going to get full value from that. I don't know exactly how much money they are willing to spend, so maybe it won't be that big of a deal.

And I do think that from a value standpoint, it probably is a bad idea to sign guys at 30 and beyond. I know that it is sometimes a reality, but I don't know how you really construct an appropriately-valued team through free agency. But that's really a separate conversation than the instant case anyway. I agree that the long-term deals for pitchers are scary.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I wish I could set my google alerts to "dr Detroit + internet fight"

Every fiber of my being knew that posting about the Tigers would lead to a debate with DrD, but I was distracted by work and decided to post anyway, even without fully thinking it all through.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

How are Thome and Thomas not good physical comps? Are they too big?

Both American.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

I wish I could set my google alerts to "dr Detroit + internet fight"

Every fiber of my being knew that posting about the Tigers would lead to a debate with DrD, but I was distracted by work and decided to post anyway, even without fully thinking it all through.

It was a good debate.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

I wish I could set my google alerts to "dr Detroit + internet fight"

Every fiber of my being knew that posting about the Tigers would lead to a debate with DrD, but I was distracted by work and decided to post anyway, even without fully thinking it all through.

It was a good debate.

agreed.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

So basically every player beyond 28 who signs a long-term deal is signed with the expectation that their best years are behind them. Right? That's fine, but VMART had his best season at 35 and anyone thinking Miguel Cabrera is going to fade like Albert Belle or Ryan Howard is out of their minds. Neither the Sanchez or Kinsler contracts are bad now, or going forward. Sanchez at $16mm a year is less than Brandon McCarthy, CJ Wilson, Jared Weaver and Matt Cain guys that I think he compares well with.

The bottom line with Price is that Verlander's contract, and Verlander's only, is a roadblock to giving Price a crazy contract. Those other contracts mean nothing IMO, and the Tigers have hit well enough this year to contend anyway. But as an owner I'd have a tough time giving Price $200mm given what we've seen from Cain, Verlander, Sabathia, and even Lester. I think Price is an exception and will have many more elite then above average years, but investing in pitching at that cost over that many years is scary.

Fair enough. Kinsler I agree is not a problem at all, now that I saw that his salary goes down, and honestly he could be a bargain, considering his 5.1 WAR last year and 2.5 this year.


And I am willing to give Cabrera the benefit of the doubt for the next few years.

Sanchez has a 1 WAR this year. Is he going to get better? I would doubt that he gets much above that ever agin.


Martinez was a 2.1 in 2011, hurt in 2012, .7 in 2013, 4.3 last year, and -0.4 this year. Obviously he can be better than he was this year if he is healthy, but again he had a sudden career year in 2014. Are you really going to bank on him returning to that at 37? And on guys having career years in their mid-30s in general?

No, but teams don't sign guys in their late 20s and early 30s hoping they'll have career years at 35. Do you think the Tigers signed VMART the first time thinking he would have a career year at 34? I don't understand what you are getting at, the Cubs signed Jon Lester and the Red Sox signed Hanley Ramirez because of their long-term consistency and the fact they are among the best at their positions. Teams are fully aware that these players are going to have some off years, but are signing them for a level of performance over time, not because they are banking on career year after career year.

The Tigers signed Anibal at 28 and got a Cy Young type season out of what is supposed to be a #3/#4 pitcher. He's easily going to earn the value of his contract. Why would I or anyone else expect him to be better than his career year? His age and performance history say he's due to regress.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Oops, nevermind. Red Sox signed Hanley to play the Green Monster, you know...because they brought in the gold glove Panda to play 3B.

 

[shadyridr]

Happy 40th birthday ARod!

 

[Annyong]

Schwarber to see more time in the OF. Shocking.

 

[Good Posting Judge]

Resisting all SchwarbOffers in fantasy. Ride or die.

 

[Raider Nation]

KB!

 

[Limp Ditka]

KB!

Most handsome walk off ever

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Tulo to the Blue Jays.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Blue Jays realize they need pitching not hitting right? Where the #### is he gonna play?

 

[Limp Ditka]

Blue Jays realize they need pitching not hitting right? Where the #### is he gonna play?

He'll last 2 weeks on that turf

 

[Bruce Dickinson]

Tulo to the Blue Jays.

Did not see that coming.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Reyes and minor leaguers back to the Stones. Makes more sense now.

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Reyes and minor leaguers back to the Stones. Makes more sense now.

And Latroy Hawkins! He gets another shot of just missing the playoffs!

 

[Frostillicus]

Weird trade.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Reyes and minor leaguers back to the Stones. Makes more sense now.

From the Toronto side it does.Meanwhile, unless I heard it wrong, Colorado just took on 2/44 worth of Jose Reyes

 

[Frostillicus]

Surprised Reyes didn't have a no trade clause. Although I suppose at this point going to Colorado is a perfect set up to maybe get one last good contract.

 

[Limp Ditka]

Reyes and minor leaguers back to the Stones. Makes more sense now.

From the Toronto side it does.Meanwhile, unless I heard it wrong, Colorado just took on 2/44 worth of Jose Reyes

With the remainder of this year, make that 2.3/51 worth.....and a 4m buyout in 2018

 

[Doctor Detroit]

Reyes and minor leaguers back to the Stones. Makes more sense now.

From the Toronto side it does.Meanwhile, unless I heard it wrong, Colorado just took on 2/44 worth of Jose Reyes

So...

Donaldson

Joey Bats

Tulo

Encarnacion

Damn

 

[Doctor Detroit]

The Tulo/Reyes injury work pool will be

 

[Northern Voice]

I wonder if Colorado can convince Reyes to play somewhere else, Jays seemed afraid to tell him he isn't a SS any more despite all the evidence.

 

[Raider Nation]

Blue Jays realize they need pitching not hitting right?

Smart move, if you think about it. They ain't fixing that pitching overnight. The only way they do anything is to win an Arena Football League game every night.