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**2015 MLB Season Thread: This is how the chapter ends (1 Viewer)

Peyton Marino said:
pretty interesting article from one of the authors of 'The Book' on why WAR is actually not ideal for evaluating an MVP race. he suggests WPA as a possible alternative. Donaldson has a greater WPA as of tonight :shrug:
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That seemed dumb to me. No offense. The whole point of war is to attempt to eliminate luck and give due to the players who perform the best.

Most Valuable = contributes the most value = does the most to help his team win.

The fact that the rest of the team may suck doesn't make a player more or less intrinsically valuable...

 
Instinctive said:
Peyton Marino said:
pretty interesting article from one of the authors of 'The Book' on why WAR is actually not ideal for evaluating an MVP race. he suggests WPA as a possible alternative. Donaldson has a greater WPA as of tonight :shrug:
Click to expand...
That seemed dumb to me. No offense. The whole point of war is to attempt to eliminate luck and give due to the players who perform the best.

Most Valuable = contributes the most value = does the most to help his team win.

The fact that the rest of the team may suck doesn't make a player more or less intrinsically valuable...
Click to expand...
Right, that's what WPA measures. Context matters when evaluating who was most valuable to a team in a given year. I think WAR is a really good way for evaluating 'true talent', but that's not really what the MVP award is for, IMO. If a guy hits a bunch of walk offs in a season, even though that is luck-based that he came up in those situations, and there's arguably no 'skill' to performing in those situations vs. low leverage situations, I think the player should be rewarded for that.

I don't think WPA precludes players on bad teams from winning. 3 of the top 5 in WPA right now are Cruz, Goldy, and Votto. Rizzo is #1 FWIW.

 
Peyton Marino said:
Instinctive said:
Peyton Marino said:
pretty interesting article from one of the authors of 'The Book' on why WAR is actually not ideal for evaluating an MVP race. he suggests WPA as a possible alternative. Donaldson has a greater WPA as of tonight :shrug:
Click to expand...
That seemed dumb to me. No offense. The whole point of war is to attempt to eliminate luck and give due to the players who perform the best.

Most Valuable = contributes the most value = does the most to help his team win.

The fact that the rest of the team may suck doesn't make a player more or less intrinsically valuable...
Click to expand...
Right, that's what WPA measures. Context matters when evaluating who was most valuable to a team in a given year. I think WAR is a really good way for evaluating 'true talent', but that's not really what the MVP award is for, IMO. If a guy hits a bunch of walk offs in a season, even though that is luck-based that he came up in those situations, and there's arguably no 'skill' to performing in those situations vs. low leverage situations, I think the player should be rewarded for that.

I don't think WPA precludes players on bad teams from winning. 3 of the top 5 in WPA right now are Cruz, Goldy, and Votto. Rizzo is #1 FWIW.
Click to expand...
I should clarify: Context means absolutely nothing in what you contribute to your team's chances of winning, IMO. I think we just have a different view based on the bolded in your reply. I'm trying to reward someone who provided the most value, not someone who provided some value at the time that was most visible.

To me, a 2-run walk-off HR is exactly the same as a 2-run HR in the 4th in a game you end up winning by one either way. A run is a run. WAR doesn't evaluate true talent at all, really. It evaluates the value of contributions on the field. True talent would better be measured by something like ZiPS, perhaps. For instance, Carlos Correa is more talented than, say, McCutchen, IMO. But McCutchen generated more WAR this year (he likely will, at least. It would be incredible if Correa passed him). He's producing more value for his team, and is a more viable MVP candidate (in large part because he has played more, which produces more value).

I think it's perfectly acceptable to view an MVP like you do. I'll probably never convince anyone holding that viewpoint of anything else, just like I think it's unlikely I can ever be convinced that context should matter for a baseball MVP. But I do think it is a poor way to look at value, and it sucks that to screws a guy just because he's on a bad team. To me, "Who is the MVP?" should have the same answer as, "If we were starting the season over and you got to draft 1st overall, who would you take knowing how they'd perform?" Because in this magical new season, they could get the same production but with less luck around what the score happened to be in some games or around who managed to get on base ahead of them in others. It's a similar approach as to why I think looking at a stat like RBI is a dumb way to evaluate a player.

Again, all of this is colored by my career choice as well, rather than fandom.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Instinctive said:
Peyton Marino said:
Instinctive said:
Peyton Marino said:
pretty interesting article from one of the authors of 'The Book' on why WAR is actually not ideal for evaluating an MVP race. he suggests WPA as a possible alternative. Donaldson has a greater WPA as of tonight :shrug:
Click to expand...
That seemed dumb to me. No offense. The whole point of war is to attempt to eliminate luck and give due to the players who perform the best.

Most Valuable = contributes the most value = does the most to help his team win.

The fact that the rest of the team may suck doesn't make a player more or less intrinsically valuable...
Click to expand...
Right, that's what WPA measures. Context matters when evaluating who was most valuable to a team in a given year. I think WAR is a really good way for evaluating 'true talent', but that's not really what the MVP award is for, IMO. If a guy hits a bunch of walk offs in a season, even though that is luck-based that he came up in those situations, and there's arguably no 'skill' to performing in those situations vs. low leverage situations, I think the player should be rewarded for that.

I don't think WPA precludes players on bad teams from winning. 3 of the top 5 in WPA right now are Cruz, Goldy, and Votto. Rizzo is #1 FWIW.
Click to expand...
I should clarify: Context means absolutely nothing in what you contribute to your team's chances of winning, IMO. I think we just have a different view based on the bolded in your reply.
Click to expand...
Probably so, and that's fine. I like the MVP award as a separate award from who was the 'best' player during a given season. WPA also says nothing of defense, so that's obviously a shortcoming.


WAR doesn't evaluate true talent at all, really. It evaluates the value of contributions on the field. True talent would better be measured by something like ZiPS, perhaps. For instance, Carlos Correa is more talented than, say, McCutchen, IMO. But McCutchen generated more WAR this year (he likely will, at least. It would be incredible if Correa passed him). He's producing more value for his team, and is a more viable MVP candidate (in large part because he has played more, which produces more value).
Click to expand...
While true that WAR is only a measure of 'what happened' and not what is likely to happen in the future, I think it's among the best non-projection 'predictive' measure of a player's value going forward. I would agree ZIPS is a better measure of 'true talent' going forward, but (good) projections in general are going to be better forward-looking metrics when compared to measurements of what already happened. FWIW, ZIPS RoS projections have Correa at .322 wOBA and 104 wRC+, right around league average, whereas McCutchen is at .380 wOBA and 184 wRC+ (though on a WAR/Game basis, you are right, Correa has outperformed McCutchen this year). Seems we've gotten pretty far off of the MVP discussion at this point, though :nerd:
 
Yes, we're pretty far afield at this point. And I just grabbed a good rookie and a guy who played all year and took the first ones I saw with a big WAR/game difference to try and demonstrate the point.

I think we've reached a point of understanding though, and just agreeing to disagree on what the MVP "should" be for. This is pretty mild on the :nerd: scale compared to the stuff we discuss in the intern room at work all day HAHA.

:thumbup:

 
So in 24 hours Utley has gone from definitely staying to probably going to L.A.

What do the Dodgers give up for a rental like Utley that make it worthwhile for the Phils to trade him? Single-A pitching prospect?

 
I don't get the Utley interest. **** Hernandez has been a very good fill in for Howie Kendrick.

Utley won't help the Dodgers' bullpen.

 
Jim Johnson in the 8th only down 1, and it takes the bases loaded no out for them to get somebody else up. Even if they skate out of this inning I do not get this.

 
Limp Ditka said:
Outside of watching STL celebrate winning the '82 World Series, has there been a sadder day in Brewer history than today?
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I'll go with the trade of Gorman Thomas for Rick Manning

 
Eephus said:
Limp Ditka said:
Eephus said:
Limp Ditka said:
Outside of watching STL celebrate winning the '82 World Series, has there been a sadder day in Brewer history than today?
Click to expand...
I'll go with the trade of Gorman Thomas for Rick Manning
Click to expand...
Meh... Getting rid of the stein of beer, for Bernie to slide into, probably trumps all 3 events.
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How about the morning after George Webb's gave out all those hamburgers.
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Had to google that one. Awesome!

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Was Cherington really a :nerd: ? It never seemed like it to me.
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Cherington was scheduled to be one of the speakers at a SABR event this weekend in Boston. He's an Amherst College grad.

Henry and Werner definitely love their sabermetrics, so Cherington certainly was an extension of that (and often considered to be a puppet for management, FWIW). He's pretty much a Theo Epstein disciple.

How else to explain the fascination with signing/overpaying for Hanley and then trying to hammer that square peg into a round hole. Or this year's ridiculous "five aces" plan and all the money given to Rick Porcello. The Sox were considered to be ahead of the curve on driving up pitch counts and it's impact on the game, but now it's come back around and bit them with umpires calling bigger strike zones.

It will be interesting to see how Dombrowski adjusts and fits, because he definitely is more of the old-school baseball scouting type.

 
Dickie Dunn said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Was Cherington really a :nerd: ? It never seemed like it to me.
Click to expand...
Cherington was scheduled to be one of the speakers at a SABR event this weekend in Boston. He's an Amherst College grad.

Henry and Werner definitely love their sabermetrics, so Cherington certainly was an extension of that (and often considered to be a puppet for management, FWIW). He's pretty much a Theo Epstein disciple.

How else to explain the fascination with signing/overpaying for Hanley and then trying to hammer that square peg into a round hole. Or this year's ridiculous "five aces" plan and all the money given to Rick Porcello. The Sox were considered to be ahead of the curve on driving up pitch counts and it's impact on the game, but now it's come back around and bit them with umpires calling bigger strike zones.

It will be interesting to see how Dombrowski adjusts and fits, because he definitely is more of the old-school baseball scouting type.
Click to expand...
I don't know if there is any sort of modern/sabrmetric thinking that would lead one to think you could put Ramirez in LF and it'd work out.

And I think driving up pitch counts is a nice by-product of simply having good hitters who, duh, swing at strikes and don't at balls. But then how do you explain Sandoval, who swings at nearly everything? And he's just simply continued to decline at a pretty normal rate, it's not like his bat has fallen off a cliff. He's just continued to do everything a little worse.

I also don't think there's anything necessarily wrong with not having an "ace" if you have an otherwise-strong staff (although it certainly helps come playoff time), but the Sox by and large just got ####ty pitchers. Wade Miley, Joe Kelly, and Justin Masterson stink.

I would hesitate to just lump in any young GM who went to a good school as being sabr-friendly. Or at least more sabr-friendly than the league average. Daniels has an economics degree from Cornell and he clearly isn't a Beane/Friedman type.

 
Good Posting Judge said:
Eephus said:
Marlon Byrd to the World Champions for minor league RHP Stephen Johnson
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So as a Blanco owner (my OF is that grim), I should continue to expect seeing him play against all righties for the time being?
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Blanco has been excellent this year. I think he's the regular CF until Pagan comes back. Aoki was activated today but Pence went on the DL in the corresponding move.

Byrd replaces Justin Maxwell for now. I don't think the Giants need six OF on the roster so either Juan Perez or Lollis gets sent down before the weekend.

No idea what happens when everybody gets healthy.

 
Eephus said:
Good Posting Judge said:
Eephus said:
Marlon Byrd to the World Champions for minor league RHP Stephen Johnson
Click to expand...
So as a Blanco owner (my OF is that grim), I should continue to expect seeing him play against all righties for the time being?
Click to expand...
Blanco has been excellent this year. I think he's the regular CF until Pagan comes back. Aoki was activated today but Pence went on the DL in the corresponding move.

Byrd replaces Justin Maxwell for now. I don't think the Giants need six OF on the roster so either Juan Perez or Lollis gets sent down before the weekend.

No idea what happens when everybody gets healthy.
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Keep Blanco in CF and stop pretending that Pagan isn't trash?

 
I don't remember Marlon Bryd on the Nationals, or really on half the ten teams he's played for. Must be getting old like Eephus.

 
Doctor Detroit said:
Eephus said:
Doctor Detroit said:
I don't remember Marlon Bryd on the Nationals, or really on half the ten teams he's played for. Must be getting old like Eephus.
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...or like Marlon Byrd
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Marlon Dyrb
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Byrd was one of the original Nationals after the team moved from Montreal/San Juan. Looking back at the roster, it's an remarkably unremarkable team. There's probably not a "Ball Four" book in them. John Patterson had a nice season but blew out his arm the following year. Nick Johnson somehow managed to play in 131 games. Livan Hernandez ate innings.

 
That was it. Came on after the game was over. Don't remember that happening before, but maybe I could just always watch the late game since it's rare for a Central team to play out there...

 
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