GOB
Footballguy
Same. But had you told me in October that Channing Frye was going to play in the Finals this year, I would have agreed with you.
Go Frye!
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2015 NBA Thread: I felt a great disturbance in the trolls, as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter Capella
- Start date
Go Frye!
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Yep, I get the Kyrie defense angle (while ignoring the other end of the court) and potential coaching mismatch, but still waiting for something interesting on the depth superiority in this series.
When comparing the Finals last year to now, the Cavs essentially add Kyrie, Love, and Frye to their rotation...moving their depth and other pieces back to the roles they excel in or should be in. Delly won't have to be hospitalized after Game 3. Frye fits much better against GS than Mozgov (who won't see the floor now) and has been draining 3's. Shump can concentrate on defense instead of also trying to moonlight as the 3rd offensive option (and JR as the 2nd option, that was cute). Jefferson was also added and has found a fountain of youth the last couple months and in these playoffs. He matches up well with the GS length, moving James Jones to the motivational role he should be in. And they got rid of Andy, who just might be one of Kerr's heady adjustments. Facts are, the Cavs are more prepared for anything GS will, or maybe have to (like last year), throw at them this year.
I'm also hearing talk about how the Cavs need to slow it down (like they attempted in the Christmas game) and grind out wins. Forget that. GS misses a 3, run and get open looks. Play the way you play best. Like all playoffs against those Eastern Conf teams that should be in the D-League. Make adjustments like slowing the pace when something isn't working.
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encaitar
Footballguy
Kyrie on defense is going to be a problem for Cleveland for sure. They'll likely try to hide him on Iggy and Barnes, but GS will find a way to get him matched up on Curry and Thompson.
However, I still don't see how GS stops Cleveland's offense. LeBron and Kyrie are every bit as good at breaking down defenses as KD/WB are and the biggest difference is that Cleveland doesn't have a Roberson you can leave open and help off of.
I think it'll be a high scoring series and I think the only reason I favor GS is because of the home court.
However, I still don't see how GS stops Cleveland's offense. LeBron and Kyrie are every bit as good at breaking down defenses as KD/WB are and the biggest difference is that Cleveland doesn't have a Roberson you can leave open and help off of.
I think it'll be a high scoring series and I think the only reason I favor GS is because of the home court.
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
GOB
Footballguy
I hate Bleacher report. I don't want to go through your slideshow. This isn't high school. ####.
Frostillicus
Footballguy
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
GOB
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Clev 4-0 +3000
Clev 4-1 +1200
Clev 4-2 +485
Clev 4-3 +670
GS 4-0 +900
GS 4-1 +325
GS 4-2 +500
GS 4-3 +310
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Just admit you would applaud Andy if he did that. You know you would!
Honestly...GS is rightfully favored, extra home game, will probably win the title again, but of course I'm going to think my team would win. Why wouldn't I? I think the series will be closer than some are predicting.
In true Cleveland sports team form, they go from potentially playing OKC (who I think the Cavs would have beat in 5 or 6), to getting the champs riding high after being down 3-1 in their series. Trust me, I was silently right with you GS homers knowing the outcome of the OKC series. That's how it's worked for a long time.
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Sammy3469
Footballguy
Totally agree.
As for the defense, the Cavs only real chance is that they put Kyrie on Curry and hope he plays decent enough defense to force GS to need to run PnR (as opposed to Westbrook...I mean Kyrie just falling asleep and giving him open looks from 3). I'd assume GS would then run the PnR with Love's man. While Love is bad defensively, he is at least OK when he knows how he needs to play the PnR (ie trap in this case to force the ball out of Curry's hands). That will create a mismatch down the line, but at that point you have to hope LeBron's good enough to cover up whatever's coming at him. The Cavs will have to let Iggy, Barnes, and Green shoot from 3, but frankly that's not horrendous from their perspective....
because...the Cavs are an even more efficient offensive team and they present unique matchup problems for GS on the other end. Barnes can't handle LeBron, so that falls to Iggy or Green (once Iggy gets in foul trouble). The entire Cavs team has been lethal from the corner this postseason, so once one of those defenders collapses to help on LeBron, they are going to get an open look from 3, and they've been shooting them better than GS this postseason. As long as they continue to make their fair share of those open 3s, this will be a close series.
Bobcat10
Footballguy
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
GOB
Footballguy
Varejao gets a ring regardless of the outcome. Since he played for Cleveland. If he heel turns, I guarantee you that you will hear David Stern's music shortly after.
Bah Gawd!
Britney Spears
guest speaker
I definitely think on the superstar call spectrum, LeBron is very much on the low end. He gets hammered.
Bull Dozier
Footballguy
Disagree, but I admit my own bias. I think he gets away with a lot on defense that "the others" get called on routinely (and he overreacts to almost every foul called against him).
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Britney Spears
guest speaker
Gr00vus
Footballguy
He's a bit like Shaq was in that regard. His style of play results in a lot of contact. Tough for the refs to call everything, so there will be times where it seems he's getting too many calls, or not enough.
Britney Spears
guest speaker
When OKC ran, it definitely gave the Warriors a lot of problems. I would think CLE could take some of the things that worked for OKC forward.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
I've compiled my exhaustive list of NBA players who don't overreact to calls against them. Check it out:
Notorious T.R.E.
Showdown!™ Administrator
Agreed. Almost posted the same thing, but lazy. These guys are such monsters that they either draw contact or you watch them dunk all day. Tough job for the officials.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
And like Shaq, LeBron can power through so much contact there's a lot of fouls that go uncalled because the contact doesn't impede his movement or seem to put him at a disadvantage. Shaq had hundreds, possibly thousands, of three-point play opportunities denied because he could dunk through fouls without having his position altered.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Yeah, as much of a freak as LeBron is, Shaq was an even bigger one. So many time's he'd finish with three guys grabbing his forearms, no call. So many other times he'd blast guys out of the lane with a shoulder to the chest just doing one of his natural post moves and not get a charging call. I wonder what kinds of conversations the ref crews had before games they worked in which he was playing. James is the same way, just on a slightly smaller scale.
Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Bull Dozier
Footballguy
While almost every NBA player is a 9 or 10 on the Offdee scale of complaining about calls (so admittedly it is a bit silly to compare), LeBron is certainly in the 9.9 range.
Jayrod
Footballguy
I kinda assume they all are. These guys have higher quality tail than most of us have ever seen being thrown at them every night. Not sure how one would resist living on the road as much as they do.
mr. furley
Footballguy
unless you're new to the NBA and haven't figured this out yet... wide latitude is given to the absolute superstar players in the league. always has been. nobody is paying to watch Lebron foul out in the 3rd quarter.
players, officials, coaches all know this. since they know this they are going to manipulate, argue, bicker, finagle, whatever as much as they can to massage the guidelines. and they're going to be allowed to get away with it.
superstars can explode in an insane temper tantrum and refs let it be. the 4th guy off the bench can give a blank stare in the general direction of the 3rd official who wasn't involved in the call and get run.
that's just how it has always worked
it's not different in any sport. if you are in the top handful of your sporting profession you get to do whatever the hell you want to do. it's not just an NBA phenomenon.
players, officials, coaches all know this. since they know this they are going to manipulate, argue, bicker, finagle, whatever as much as they can to massage the guidelines. and they're going to be allowed to get away with it.
superstars can explode in an insane temper tantrum and refs let it be. the 4th guy off the bench can give a blank stare in the general direction of the 3rd official who wasn't involved in the call and get run.
that's just how it has always worked
it's not different in any sport. if you are in the top handful of your sporting profession you get to do whatever the hell you want to do. it's not just an NBA phenomenon.
Capella
Footballguy
Alleged Jesus freak who wanted to change the NBA logo to Christ but then had 9 kids from 8 women?
PlasmaDogPlasma
Footballguy
I was about to say, isn't Shaq a Muslim?
Village Idiot
Pokerguy
As expected.bananafish said:
And LOL regular season games. Ask Toronto how that .667 record this season worked out. (Sorry Cliff I would have been hoping Raps win it all of they beat the Cavs).
I wanted to see how much of that sweep talk was really yeah I'll put my money where my mouth is or just what it is pure having fun and being pumped for the Finals.
I was born and raised in Cleveland I am hoping against hope for the win, but like a true native expecting some heart breaking loss or the Cavs get smashed.
Under 209.5 for Thursday? Interesting, Lue has said he wants to run with GSW.
I'd expect the over to hit, unless multiple players shoot the ball badly.
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Good Posting Judge
Footballguy
Green was pretty bad, overall, against OKC too.
I think a lot of that had to do with how exhausting of a matchup OKC was especially trying to battle Adams.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Cleveland had a lot of trouble against Lowry and Derozan on the road and it cost them 60 + points and 2 games, if they have the same trouble against these guards it will cost them 80+ points and the series.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Back in the day I would bet point lines and over/unders. Help an old man get clear. For every hundred you bet you return $900 if G.S. sweeps so your payout here is $2700 on your $300 wager, is that right?bananafish said:
I don't know how folks seem to weigh these probabilities. Points always seemed so natural to me, over/unders as well. Predicting one team has an 80% chance of an outright win, or a 11% probability, in this case, of accomplishing something. It seems less natural to me. Of Course if you are placing this particular bet you obviously feel they have greater than a 12% chance of accomplishing a sweep, is that right?
Do you look at historic numbers, this years playoffs, regular season matchups, which to me seem only somewhat indicative of playoff ball? Do you prefer these lines to point lines, and if so can you articulate why? Just curious.
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Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
See these numbers interest me too. Counterintuitive movement sometimes, but not so if you think road closeouts are unlikely in some scenarios. This is interesting, but I am not sure I can get a handle on this sort of thinking. Fascinating.tjnc09 said:
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I would never say he does not get hammered. Jut that he initiates as often as he does, and he does always get the call. Now Durant, he gets away with lots of reaching and grabbing on defense, and he gets every benefit on the offensive end. Certainly if folks came at him as hard as they do Lebron many of those would be called flagrant. Given that, if you say Lebron does not get the flagrant calls he should I would agree. He does take some hard fouls. Of course when he initiates, and then gets hard fouled in that same play I can see the refs balancing, though they probably should not.Britney Spears said:
Hard game to ref in full speed. I get to see everything in slow motion on high def from the comfort of my recliner and a bit of an elevated view. They are right down there with giants screening them half the time. Not a job I would want.
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Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I do admire the way Clevelanders have supported their teams in spite of returns. If they get a Championship I will be happy for them, the fans. They seem like good folks.
Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
Bananafish,
Have you ever gone the other way on these long odds things. Have you risked say $900 for a return of $100? Seems that would be a difficult emotional choice, one much more likely to be made by institutions, not persons. Almost undoubtedly it is the smart play to be going long to short, but it seems emotionally nearly impossible for the small time player just looking for some juice on a game or series.
Have you ever gone the other way on these long odds things. Have you risked say $900 for a return of $100? Seems that would be a difficult emotional choice, one much more likely to be made by institutions, not persons. Almost undoubtedly it is the smart play to be going long to short, but it seems emotionally nearly impossible for the small time player just looking for some juice on a game or series.
sports_fan
Footballguy
I'm not as confident in the Warriors beating the Cavs as I was in the Spurs beating the Thunder but it's close.
Each team has a win probability set by the books for each individual game. For example, GS is 70.25% to win game 1 and Cleveland is 29.75% to win game 1. GS should be about 47% to win game 3 or 4. You can calculate these win probabilities with a simple formula that excludes the vig. The probability GS wins at home <> wins on the road. All you are doing is calculating the different ways the above outcomes can happen.
So, the probability GS sweeps is just P(wins game 1 at home) x P(wins game 2 at home) x P(wins game 3 away) x P(wins game 4 away)
GS wins 4-1 is:
P(WWWLW)+P(WWLWW)+P(WLWWW)+P(LWWWW)
etc
ETA: plus vig on each option
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Ditkaless Wonders
Footballguy
I get the math of it. The win probabilities projectors have gotten close over the years but how does a human set their win probabilities? Big swings in math if your numbers are even say 5% different than the projectors times say four games. How does one start thinking in percentages instead of point differentials, just watchin and practicing?
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