Anybody else follow GipsySafety on Reddit?
https://www.reddit.com/user/GipsySafety
This was his write up on the Bruce Butler trade; another example of Reggie making the right moves...
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Sept 15, 2015
( Between Week 1 and Week 2 of the regular season.)
The trade was billed as "Cowboys get talented WR prospect for late round pick swap", which later was clarified as being a 5th for a 6th swap. Most reports of the trade focused on what the Cowboys were getting and what a low price it was for them. Makes sense, the Cowboys were coming off a fantastic 12-4 season. In the offseason they signed Greg Hardy, had two "draft steals" in Randy Gregory and La'El Collins, and felt that Joseph Randle + DMC would easily replace the Demarco Murray production behind the new Great Wall of Dallas.
The fans (and some media) were not shy of praising the Cowboys and talking Superbowl.
And so when Dez Bryant injured his foot and would be lost for an extended time, getting an interesting size / speed talent like Butler to replace him was a no-brainer, especially when the cost of that seemed so low at the time.
A 12-4 Superbowl contending Cowboys team was going to swap their 5th for the 3-13 and Still Struggling (under Dennis Allen) Raiders' 6th round.
Most figured that the Cowboys' 5th would be a very late pick and the Raiders' 6th rounder would be an early pick. Dropping down 10-20 slots for a potential starting WR seemingly favored the Cowboys a lot. To obtain a player (and potential starter), the Cowboys would not even have to give up a draft pick, rather they would just move down about half a round in the latter part of Day 3 of the Draft.
And for Raiders fans, it didn't seem like much value for Butler. At the time, Raiders' fans still didn't know what to expect from the WR corps. Seth Roberts had not yet emerged into the solid #3 receiver and the jury was still out on Michael Crabtree as a contributor at all. Andre Holmes and Rod Streater will still question marks and so from outside the Raiders' Building, it seemed that Butler was still in the mix as a potential starter.
So losing a possible contributor for just a few draft slots was a bit disappointing, disappointing enough so that many of us did not give this trade a second thought and have forgotten about it.
This is the NFL and things can change quite a bit in just a few weeks. Over the course of the next 16 weeks, circumstances totally changed and as a result, the value of that trade has changed.
The trade was conditional on Butler being on the roster for 6 weeks. Butler's final stats :
- 7 G, 2 starts, 26 targets, 12 rec, 258 yards, 0 TDs.
The Cowboys were no longer a 12-4 team. Dez and Romo suffered injuries. Weeden, Cassel, and Moore didn't do much for the QB position. Greg Hardy's most notable moments were on the sideline and Randy Gregory has been a non-factor. DMC has been a nice surprise but Joseph Randle managed to get himself cut from the team and the overalll rushing attack was much less productive than a year ago.
Dallas finished 4-12 and tied with SD for the 3rd worse record in the NFL.
Since the two teams finished with the same record, a tie-breaker determines who gets the better pick in the 1st round. Chargers win that (being the "worse team") and get the 3rd pick.
In subsequent rounds, the pick rotates so that means the Cowboys get the 4th pick in odd rounds and the 3rd pick in even rounds.
- 1st, 3rd, 5th, 7th rounds : pick #4
- 2nd, 4th, 6th rounds : pick #3
Meanwhile in Oakland, the team under new HC Jack del Rio took a notable step forward with young talents making an impression League-wide. AC/DC was as advertised. Michael Crabtree shocked the League by rejuvenating his career and becoming a key component to the offense and a fan favorite. Just as surprising was young UDFA Seth Roberts making an impact as the #3 receiver; in 480 yards, 5 TDs).
The team got off to a bad start in Week 1 against Cincy, but proved to be a surprisingly solid--and at times excellent--team over the rest of the season.
The Raiders finished 7-9 and tied with 4 other teams (NO, PHI, STL, DET) for 12th worst record . The tie-breaker(s) puts OAK at the 14th pick. The picks rotate by round so ...
- 1st round : 14
- 2nd round : 13
- 3rd round : 12
- 4th round : 16
- 5th round : 15
- 6th round : 14
Now the move-up from 6th to 5th means that the Raiders give up 14th pick of the 6th round (6.14) for the 4th pick of the 5th round (5.04). That is a 42 slot move, which is more than 1 full round. In fact, Dallas' pick is better than Oakland's meaning that in the 5th round, Reggie will be using Dallas' pick 10 slots prior to his own.
Every year, there are 32 compensatory picks given out, based on gains and losses of free agents. No one really knows what formula(e) the NFL uses, but it seems to work ok.
- In 2015, there were 8 5th round compensatory picks given out.
- In 2014, there were 4
- In 2013, there were 3
- In 2012, there were 3
We can probably expect between 3 and 5 5th round compensatory picks to be given out; the actuals will be released prior to the draft.
That means the trade up is probably worth more than 42 slots, more like 45 to 47 slots.
For a frame of reference :
- 6.14 is about pick #186 overall
- +45 slots is pick #141
For an idea of the kind of players that are available at those spots, here's a look back at the past 4 drafts and some of the players that were taken in the middle fo the 6th round around the 186 pick or so and the players that were taken in the early 5th round. This just gives an idea of the type of players that are typically available at those slots and what that may mean for the upcoming draft.
2012
Mid 6th :
- Ryan Lindley
- James Hanna
- Danny Trevathan
- Christo Bilukidi
- Dan Herron
Early 5th :
- Robert Blanton
- Brandon Marshall (LB)
- Josh Norman
2013
Mid 6th :
- Latavius Murray
- Kenjon Barner
- Mychal Rivera
- Devonte Holloman
- Andre Ellington
- Cornelius Washington
- Rex Burhead
- Bacarri Rambo
Early 5th :
- Tharold Simon
- Stepfan Taylor
- Lavar Edwards
- Jonathan Meeks
- Kenny Stills
- AJ Klein
2014
Mid 6th :
- Robert Herron
- Lache Seastrunk
- EJ Gaines,
Early 5th :
- Telvin Smith
- David Yankey
- Ricardo Allen
- Aaron Lynch
- Avery Williamson
2015
Mid 6th :
- Geremy Davis
- Evan Spencer
- Charles Gaines
- JaCorey Shepherd
Early 5th :
- David Cobb
- Rashad Greene
- Ben Heeney
- Stefon Diggs
- Brett Hundley
Day 3 picks are generally developmental picks; they are rarely counted on to be Day 1 or even Year 1 starters. Most will contribute mainly on special teams and in spot duty. These picks will be considered good picks if they are solid contributors in Year 2 or 3. Above are Special Wins for the scouting and coaching staffs.
The farther the draft goes, the more GMs are willing to take gambles or to draft on "interesting" traits or take raw potential. It becomes increasingly difficult to predict who will take whom and which players may fall since draft boards diverge significantly well before the 5th round.
That means there's quite a bit of fortune involved. In order to find an undiscovered gem or to draft that "steal", the first thing that has to happen is for the other teams to pass on him so that he is available. Who knows what may have happened if a team drafted just a few slots later much less 40+ slots later?
45 slots is a big jump; that's almost 1 1/2 rounds. On the trade value chart, slot 141 is 35.5 points and the 186 slot is 17 points, so the move is valued at more than the initial draft pick. That means a couple of things.
First, the pool of available talent is expected to be substantially better (obviously). This means that they are either more physically talented (sometimes) or more prepared and likely to contribute sooner.
Second, this draft pick gives McKenzie additional flexibility in positioning himself in the draft. Essentially he has an extra 18+ points to move up in case he is targeting a player. According to the trade value chart, 35 points could (theoretically) allow McKenzie to move from 3.12 to 3.05. In 2015, that move would be equivalent to jumping from Chris Conley (pick #76) to Tyler Lockett (pick #69).
So far, Reggie McKenzie has not shown the desire to move up in the draft, preferring to keep his picks and stay pat or even move down. But as the team's talent level rises and the holes in the roster fill up, McKenzie may grow more willing to acquire a higher (evaluated) talent in exchange for quantity.
Or if Reggie opts for more bodies as he has in the past, that 5th provides an additional valuable position where another team may be interested in trading to. So if Reggie is of that mind, he could get back a couple of picks, likely valued better than his original 6th rounder.
Having a early 5th instead of a mid 6th is not likely to make or break the team, but it does means that this player should have a stronger chance of contributing to the team's success.
The price for this was a WR who had no real role with the team. Brice Butler was a nice player and flashed some potential in 2014. Cooper, Crabtree, and Roberts form a very nice primary unit. Andre Holmes fills in nicely as a big bodied Grinder who does the dirty work on running plays, adds a complementary big play here and there, and plays special teams. With those 4, there's not spot for Rod Streater much less Brice Butler. By Week 8 (maybe sooner) was any Raiders' fan missing Brice?
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very well summarized, good things ahead if front office can add some more pieces and keep the core together for couple more years. that and the development of the offensive pieces that everyone already mentioned.
