Xue
Footballguy
Melvin Gordon is now listed at 213lbs. http://www.uwbadgers.com/sports/m-footbl/mtt/melvin_gordon_764894.html
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2015 Rookie RB Class, Who's the BEST? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter BigTex
- Start date
EBF
Footballguy
213 is still pretty light for a RB with a listed height of 6'1". I'm not going to go on a crusade against Gordon, but I'm open to the idea that he might be overrated right now. I don't find him as impressive as other light backs like Spiller, Peterson, and Charles were in college. He's not as fast and seems a bit tighter than the latter two, though definitely not without some elusiveness and cutting ability. He's a good prospect. Perhaps not a great one, which is what he'd have to be to justify his devy ADP right now. I would not be surprised to see his teammate Corey Clement develop into a better pro. He has a much better frame for the NFL, appears to have very good speed for a stocky back, and also shows some good cutting/footwork. Surprisingly sudden at times for a big back. I'd be more likely to acquire him at his current market price than Gordon.
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jurb26
Footballguy
If you're a weight guy, which I'm not, I don't really see this as all that impressive. It's players will likely report heavier than they will actually play thanks to offseason weight training, ect. What will he weigh in week 7? Also, I don't trust team website in the least for weight. They are off way more than they are right.
Xue
Footballguy
Are you open to the idea that's he "faster" on the field than what he'll time? David Wilson "only" ran a 4.49 Official, but he's a lot faster or explosive on the field than someone like Lamar Miller, who ran a 4.40 Official. If you're saying he's not as fast as those guys based on what you think he'll time, then I agree with you. If you're saying he's not as fast based on actually watching him play, then I'd disagree with you.EBF said:
What does "better frame" mean? Does having a better frame make you a better RB overall? What do the frames of last year's leading rushers look like? The top 3 leading rushers (total yardage) McCoy, Forte, Charles, have frames that resemble nothing like Clement. Out of the top 10, I'd say only Morris, Lynch, and Gore have "stocky" frames similar to Clement, though even that's debatable.
Here are the top 20 rushers of the last 3 seasons. How any of these guys have a frame that resembles Clement's? How about running style?
While I really like Clement as well, I wouldn't take him at his current price. His current value right in the Devy drafts I've been in are in the late 2nd. I'd much rather target Greg Bryant and Ezekiel Elliott for cheaper whether that's in a draft or through a trade. Or maybe even David Williams and Justin Davis who are going for pennies.
jurb26
Footballguy
Not to derail this thread too much, but I disagree with the Wilson/Miller statement. Miller is a blur to the hole and in a straight line on the field. His acceleration out of the gate, when he knows where he's going, is unreal and displays his 40 time speed IMO. He doesn't play as fast as Wilson because Wilson has better change of direction speed and maintains his speed better through traffic. Miller is the faster player and it shows but circumstances can alter that. Perhaps Wilson's attributes more adequately reflect a larger scale of scenarios in football. I'm not sure. I only bring this up because I do in fact think it relates to Gordon. I think he maintains his speed well through traffic and change of direction. Still a high end 40 guy with true wheels like say, Mostert at Purdue, will have situations that arise to showcase that true speed that Gordon simply doesn't posses.
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EBF
Footballguy
There's a wide range of successful body types at RB, but generally speaking lighter players need to compensate with better mobility. If Gordon's listed height/weight are accurate (which they might not be) then he has a 28.1 BMI. There are a handful of good current NFL RBs in that same general ballpark: Chris Johnson, Jamaal Charles, CJ Spiller, Reggie Bush, Adrian Peterson, and DeMarco Murray. Maybe the most obvious common thread with those guys apart from size is sheer speed. That's a very, very fast group of players. All of them ran in the 4.2-4.40 range and Charles/Spiller/Peterson/Bush account for some of the fastest 100m times of any NFL RB. In order for another thin-framed RB to achieve similar success in the NFL, it's probably not a stretch to say that he needs to have similar speed and quickness. Is Gordon that fast? We'll know in February, but he doesn't have the 100m background and doesn't look as fast on film to me as guys like Spiller, Charles, and Johnson. It might seem unfair to compare Gordon to that group of players, but that's roughly the level he'll need to reach to become an effective long term NFL starter. I don't know if he's quite that good. Going back and watching Charles at Texas, he seemed looser and more compact than Gordon. Spiller and Johnson are more explosive. Gordon is good, but has an odd build for an NFL starter being tall and lean with long legs and a relatively high center of gravity. Peterson is built a little bit like that, but Peterson has some of the most active feet and best quickness of any back in the game. Gordon can move a bit, but he's not as gifted in that sense. He doesn't run quite as loose and definitely doesn't bring much functional power on the field regardless of what he might squat in a weight room.
I have a devy draft coming up on Saturday in which I have picks 1.05 and 1.06. Gurley/Yeldon/Tyner/Dyer are gone. Everyone else of note is available, so I've been catching up on watching some clips of them. I was more impressed with Clement than I expected to be, but at the same time I'm not necessarily sold yet. Just felt he had surprising speed and cutback ability for a big back. He seemed to run a bit high/narrow though. I don't disagree that other players offer more value for what they cost. Elliott in particular is a good value. DLF has Clement really high, though much of that is due to Wisconsin homer Russell Clay ranking him higher than most would. I think he'd fall out of the top 12-14 in a lot of dev drafts, which makes him exponentially cheaper in practice than Gordon. Truth is that I don't know if I'd be likely to roster either right now.
While I kinda hate the current devy WR crop, the RB group is deep and you can get a good prospect at almost any level of a draft. That means there's less incentive to pay over the odds for one of the marquee names.
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Bob Barker
Footballguy
I dont follow college much but does anyone have any early rankings of the top 5-10 RB in next years draft
Xue
Footballguy
Here's my early rankings based who I think will declare:
- Todd Gurley
- Melvin Gordon
- Karlos Williams
- Jay Ajayi
- Mike Davis
- TJ Yeldon
- Ameer Abdullah
- Duke Johnson
- Tyreek Hill
- Paul James
- Javorius Allen
- Keith Marshall
- Tevin Coleman
- Corey Grant
Nero
Footballguy
Right now, my top 5 is:1. Melvin Gordon
2. Duke Johnson
3. Karlos Williams
4. TJ Yeldon
5. Todd Gurley
Xue
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
That's pretty much where I'm at as well. There are a lot of moving parts after Davis but the top 3 are pretty well established IMO. Gurley is easily the best RB in the class and in the last several years for that matter. I've got Gordon and Davis pretty close. Then a drop off. I like Duke Johnson a lot but want to see him this year for confirmation. He could be the 4 guy for me.
Nero
Footballguy
jurb26
Footballguy
Nero
Footballguy
Richardson is nothing like Richardson. Also, being a track star doesn't make you sub 4.45.
jurb26
Footballguy
You said, 2x, he has "some speed." That is blatantly false.
Xue
Footballguy
Sounds like the same description for Karlos Williams. I guess you don't value strength/power and Yards After Contact from Gurley? He's has very good hands and runs some solid routes; something that can't be said for Gordon and Williams yet.
Also, I don't see much creativity from Gordon as well, certainly not more than Gurley.
Richardson was a great prospect. He just forgot how to run once he got to the NFL.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't think you're totally off the mark. If I had to cite a weakness in his game, it would be suddenness/explosiveness. He's light on his feet with good agility, but he's not a flashy prospect in terms of his fast-twitch. He also runs pretty high through the line of scrimmage, which negates some of his physical strength. I know he ran a 10.70 in high school, but he doesn't play to that speed and has likely gained a lot of weight since then. I would expect him to run solid times in his workouts, but not freaky stuff. I could see him looking more ordinary in the NFL because he doesn't have the "wow" level mobility of guys like MJD, Peterson, Charles, and McCoy. There's a little bit of sluggishness to his game and he'll be punished for that more at the next level. However, he's a big dude and he can catch the ball. If he pans out, I think it will be as sort of a Steven Jackson type.
jurb26
Footballguy
Gurley posted a personal best 60m hurdle time of 8.54 in high school, the same year he ran the 10.7 100m. He bested that time last year at UGA, by a LOT, running a 8.12. That time was 8th best in UGA history and he ran it 2 years later with the added weight. Gurley added functional weight because his frame allow it. He didn't just add weight.
Also, I'd say pad level is one of Gurley's STRENGHTS. See this by Waldman.
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/09/16/boiler-room-rb-todd-gurley/
The thing is, Gurley makes difficult things look easy. That is an attribute I like quit a bit but disinterests the people looking for flashy.
Sorry to keep editing but I'm thinking of more... If you want to see a great example of a big RB getting small, running with great pad level and picking up tough yds I recommend you go back and watch Gurley vs. Bama in the SECCG 2 years ago. Might not be a better example out there.
Also, I'd say pad level is one of Gurley's STRENGHTS. See this by Waldman.
http://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2013/09/16/boiler-room-rb-todd-gurley/
The thing is, Gurley makes difficult things look easy. That is an attribute I like quit a bit but disinterests the people looking for flashy.
Sorry to keep editing but I'm thinking of more... If you want to see a great example of a big RB getting small, running with great pad level and picking up tough yds I recommend you go back and watch Gurley vs. Bama in the SECCG 2 years ago. Might not be a better example out there.
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Nero
Footballguy
Williams is a lot more sudden than Gurley. He seems to hit top speed in a hurry and is much more decisive. I do value strength, power and yac, however my opinion of Gurley is that he only maximizes those traits on the second level and can be slowed if he has to make a move or create in much the same way as Richardson and Andre Williams.
EBF
Footballguy
IIRC Waldman has ties to UGA and was over the moon about Moreno too. Kind of hard for me to put stock in what he says about Gurley, especially when there's footage out there that I can look at myself. I like Gurley's quickness and nimble feet. I think he's plenty fast. All the same, I don't consider him an especially explosive back by NFL draft pick standards. Solid. Especially for a big back. Not on the jaw-dropping level. The track times are nice, but hurdling isn't sprinting. I would estimate his 40 speed between 4.45-4.55, which is fine for a 220+ pound back. I would rate him as the #1 draft-eligible RB right now, but if he's going to underwhelm for football reasons then I suspect it will be due to his lack of freak level explosiveness/suddenness. The nice thing is that he's a bigger back, so it's less essential that he blaze up the track with world class times. Steven Jackson was a low 4.5 guy and that worked fine for him given the rest of the skills. That's the closest parallel I can think of for Gurley.
That doesn't mean he isn't slightly overrated. I think what tends to happen with draft prospects is that we get so used to evaluating them in the context of their college class that we exaggerate their talent level relative to the entire pool of NFL players. Being one of the top 3-4 backs in your draft class or even the clear #1 doesn't guarantee pro stardom. There are lots of guys in the NFL who were one of the top 1-2 talents in their position in their draft class, but haven't become consistent dominators on Sundays. He can be a really strong prospect and still turn out somewhere on the Dayne---Ingram---Benson----Mathews----Lynch---Peterson scale that doesn't quite please people hyping him as the next great back.
That doesn't mean he isn't slightly overrated. I think what tends to happen with draft prospects is that we get so used to evaluating them in the context of their college class that we exaggerate their talent level relative to the entire pool of NFL players. Being one of the top 3-4 backs in your draft class or even the clear #1 doesn't guarantee pro stardom. There are lots of guys in the NFL who were one of the top 1-2 talents in their position in their draft class, but haven't become consistent dominators on Sundays. He can be a really strong prospect and still turn out somewhere on the Dayne---Ingram---Benson----Mathews----Lynch---Peterson scale that doesn't quite please people hyping him as the next great back.
EBF
Footballguy
I don't like Karlos that much, but would definitely back him to run a faster 40 than Gurley. One guy seems to play a little bit above his 100m time and one guy a little bit below. Karlos isn't Spiller/Ginn fast, but he still runs like he was shot out of a cannon. Bear in mind that some guys start fast and then plateau at a low top speed whereas others start slowly, but build to a crazy top speed. That can affect the relative quality of their performances across the different distances.
jurb26
Footballguy
4.45-4.55 is just fine for a 220+ back? Gurley is 230 and those times would be near elite for a player his size, not just fine. His explosiveness is good for any RB prospect, for a guy with his size and other tools, it's down right filthy. The closest parallel to him is one I've mentioned before and not entirely different from Matt's, Fred Taylor.
Like I said, Gurley makes it look easy. He does so because his feet are silky smooth for a guy his size. I see a lot of UGA football because of where I live. I'm assuming you, not so much. Do yourself a favor and watch a few games.., really watch them. This guys ability jumps off the screen. Nobody is ever fail proof and Gurley isn't either. Still, I think he's the best RB since Peterson. Hyperbole? Maybe. I'm sure you and perhaps a few other think so. The guy is a stud from what I can see.
Like I said, Gurley makes it look easy. He does so because his feet are silky smooth for a guy his size. I see a lot of UGA football because of where I live. I'm assuming you, not so much. Do yourself a favor and watch a few games.., really watch them. This guys ability jumps off the screen. Nobody is ever fail proof and Gurley isn't either. Still, I think he's the best RB since Peterson. Hyperbole? Maybe. I'm sure you and perhaps a few other think so. The guy is a stud from what I can see.
When you use Andre Williams in the same breath as Todd gurley... you lose me. That's like me comparing teddy Bridgewater to Aaron Rodgers because they're both 1st round picks.
Andre Williams has almost no later agility and super long legs. Todd gurley makes cuts subtle and decisive to gash defenses. It makes me question if you've seen them play.
jurb26
Footballguy
I was gone at questioning his speed but yeah, this too.
EBF
Footballguy
It can be hard to talk definitively about that stuff until you have the concrete numbers in front of you. Is he actually 6'1" like they list him? Taller? Shorter? Is he 226 or 236? Will he run a 4.45 or a 4.55? All of those things matter and make a difference. I'm not going to say he's a freak just yet because it's not entirely clear. He's definitely a big back with good strength and power. I think he's fast enough. Beyond that, I can only speculate as to exactly how freakish he is. Personally, I don't think he's Jonathan Stewart or MJD as a physical specimen. His speed/quickness don't really jump off the screen. They only become impressive in the context of his size. That said, long speed really isn't the issue for me so much as his initial burst and explosiveness. I think he's just average in those categories relative to a typical NFL starter. That could be something that prevents him from reaching the mega star level in the NFL, which is all I'm really saying. Good as he is, very few reach that level and those that do are insanely gifted (beyond even just a typical 1st round talent).
I knew you must live in that region because you almost exclusively hype players from the southeast. This isn't the first time that you've used the, "If you don't agree with me completely then you haven't watched him play" type of argument. I have been tracking him since his freshman year like most people. There are already three games from 2013 up on Draft Breakdown, so you can spare me the "you haven't him play" stuff.
I have Gurley as the #1 back in the 2015 draft right now like most people. Just because you rank a guy highly doesn't mean you have to think he's flawless. Likewise, just because you might nitpick 1-2 facets of his game doesn't mean you don't appreciate his ability. I can believe he's very good and still wonder if he'll be elite in the NFL. As I hinted at previously, it is a big step up from being a 1st round monster against amateurs to dominating in the NFL. He can be the best back in his draft and still barely be a top 10 NFL RB.
Xue
Footballguy
And I thought I was a contrarian.
Even if you think Gurley isn't the best RB in this class, he's one of the safest because he can play all 3 downs and he could be a workhorse.
The word "elite" is being tossed around too loosely here. You don't need to be an elite talent to be an elite producer. See: Giovani Bernard (soon enough), LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, etc.
Even if you think Gurley isn't the best RB in this class, he's one of the safest because he can play all 3 downs and he could be a workhorse.
The word "elite" is being tossed around too loosely here. You don't need to be an elite talent to be an elite producer. See: Giovani Bernard (soon enough), LeSean McCoy, Matt Forte, Eddie Lacy, Arian Foster, etc.
jurb26
Footballguy
Ahh, I guess it's never a debate until the baseless personal attacks from you. Funny I was going to mention the jab you took at Waldman earlier but decided not too. Pointing out that he has ties to UGA is a classic passive aggressive dig to ruin his credibility on the topic. Seriously, can we/anyone ever disagree on a player without you just making things up out of thin air and resorting to personal attacks? I debunked your baseless claim of this before and don't care to bother with it again. You're just now figuring out where I live? It's posted in my profile right next to every post I make like yours is. Careful getting too sidetracked by my current place of dwelling because I haven't always lived in this region. There is a reason I form stronger opinions on guys from the region in which I live, both good and bad. It's because I watch a lot more of them than other players. That's what happens when you have a closer proximity and better availability to information. That's also why I openly state, many times, I need more information on west coast players. I just can't watch as much of them. I've most recently done this with players like Lee, Richardson and Ajayi. I'm glad I did with Ajayi because it opened my eyes to some things. I'm not going to pretend to know things or have insight on something I don't. Sometimes I am able to supplement my intake by making a concerted effort to watch west coast games and I will if there is a player, team or just game I'm particularly interested in. It doesn't happen as often as I'd like, though. Sorry but I do have a life outside of football. I imagine you have the same problem, hence the statement.
I mention watching him more not to be confrontational, impossible it seems, but to try and be helpful. Saying things like Gurley runs high and lacks good pad level are simply inaccurate. So, it's reasonable to believe maybe you could benefit from some additional information. I'm not sure why that is so infuriating to you. Plus, I've seen you come to conclusions about guys like Jeremy Hill after watching only a half of football. Granted that was 2 years ago... Maybe things have changed. Still when you tell me that you have a good feel for Gurley because there are 3 games up on you tube it make me laugh inside. It makes me laugh because I've seen about 12 games of his including live action. So yeah, I'll refer to my own expertise here rather than yours or anyone else's for that matter. That's not intended to be insulting. It's just the confidence of having a great deal of material to provide a solid opinion off of.
My issue isn't with your ranking of Gurley. It's with statements that you've made that don't align with the player he is. I don't really care if you rank Gurley 1 or 2 or 10. It's your ranking, not mine. I could care less that Nero list him at 5. I care that he stated his speed was just OK. Go ahead and rank him at 5 if there is a reason that makes sense. Lack of speed simply isn't 1 of them. I've never said Gurley is without faults, either. He has some but I won't bother to list them. I'll leave that to the experts I suppose.
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EBF
Footballguy
I don't think lack of speed was Nero's real argument though. Here's what he said:
That was the post I initially responded to.
Neither one of us really mentioned speed as the biggest concern.
It seems to me that with certain players you have a strong opinion on (i.e. Patterson, Gurley, Miller), you kind of shut out opinions that don't jive with what you already believe. That's all well and fine. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. The problem is that your opinion is just that -- an opinion. If you say Gurley has good pad level and I say he runs high, I don't have to agree with you any more than you have to agree with me. When talking about something subjective like pad level, I don't think you should be so outraged that people don't accept your stance verbatim. All you're bringing is another opinion. If I listened to every self-proclaimed expert on the Internet about every player all the time, I would have had 10 different RBs ranked #1 in the 2015 class. That's because you can find someone out there who believes anything. For every half decent prospect, you can find someone who thinks he's the second coming. They all believe they know what they're talking about, but if ten guys are saying ten different RBs are the best back in the draft then they can't all be right.
Point being, nobody can expect everyone else to accept something as fact just because they say so. I can say Mike Dyer is a top 5 RB talent in this draft class, but that doesn't mean people are going to put him in their top 5. If people disagree, they disagree. Likewise, if you disagree with what someone says about Gurley, maybe you can leave it at that without bringing all of the "but I watch more games and know more about him so let me correct your opinion" stuff, which is where it becomes irritating. It would be one thing if we were talking about things that were totally concrete. For example, if I said, "Todd Gurley is only 5'2" so he's too short to make it in the NFL" then that's faulty because the concrete facts are totally incorrect. If I say, "Todd Gurley lacks suddenness and runs too high" then it's a lot more open for interpretation because it's almost entirely subjective. Seems to me you're not very tolerant when someone has a subjective opinion that doesn't align with yours. You might be completely 100% right about Gurley being the best back since Peterson, but as obvious as it might be to you, different people are going to look at him and reach different conclusions.
As for the Waldman thing, there was nothing passive aggressive about it. He's just another guy with an opinion. He can say Todd Gurley is the best player in the entire draft. That doesn't mean he's right or that anyone has any obligation to believe him. Greg Cosell said Trent Richardson was the best player in the 2012 draft and that RG3 was the best QB. That was his opinion. It also (looks like) he was totally wrong. One of the main reasons why I read these boards is to read a variety of opinions and see which players other people are touting, but at the same time I think we all know that someone saying something doesn't make it a fact, no matter how much credibility that person thinks they have.
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EBF
Footballguy
Let me reiterate that I have Gurley ranked as the #1 RB in the draft. Nothing contrarian about that.
Nobody is saying he's junk here. Just discussing some minor points about exactly how good he is.
He's quite possibly going to have a top 4-5 dynasty RB ADP from day one based on the hype and expectations. With that being the case, I think it's fair to scrutinize him and hold him to a really high standard. He'll likely need to be better than just good to justify his ADP over the long haul.
Nero
Footballguy
When you use a Bridgewatet/Aaron Rodgers analogy to describe the difference between Gurley and Andre Williams it makes me question whether you have seen them play. Obviously what you have seen of Gurley is so deluded by preconceived notions, you haven't seen him.
I'm posting from my phone, which made me miss some words in my previous post.
I don't think this needs to get personal, but Andre Williams is never going to be Todd gurley agility wise.
I'll also take gurleys lateral agility over karlos Williams. The hype with karlos is because he's heavy and fast/ quick. But he lacks everything else IMO. Instincts, natural feel of defenses to maximize yards, hands are still a question, vision, subtle cuts, decisive cuts, goal line work, handle a big workload, pass protection. I also don't like karlos William's build at all. He looks like he is top heavy with thin legs. Combine that with his lack of ability to avoid contact and it's a big concern with injuries ( see DMC).
Too many times in this rb debate are looking for the next this or that. Identify all the areas a rb needs to be successful in the NFL. Then see how a prospect fits and what concerns are left. Todd gurley isn't quite as quick or maybe top end speed as karlos Williams ( debatable) but I'll take him in every other area hands down.
Speed gets a lot of people excited and I also think it's very overrated in the context of everything else they have to do. See david wilson, lamar miller, seastrunk, spiller(who hasn't lived up to the hype).
I'll take gurley at the goal line(one of the best rb prospects I've seen there in a long time. Or how he stiff arms defenders away regularly and some straight to the ground.
Nero
Footballguy
If you watch a highlight tape of Andre Williams, he looks plenty decisive and runs with great speed and power. However, when you see every carry of a game there plenty runs where he is bottled up and goes down rather easily at or behind the los. I see the same tendency in Gurley. He doesn't play like a 230lb man until he gets going.
I will agree that Karlos Williams is kind of like DMC. That is not necessarily a bad thing especially since he is significantly heavier.
I will agree that Karlos Williams is kind of like DMC. That is not necessarily a bad thing especially since he is significantly heavier.
I see what you're saying about Williams because that's what happened to me as well. I actually called a buddy I know in the BC athletic department to confirm my thoughts.
The only time I saw gurley as nonexplosive was vs Florida in the 2nd half. However, that was his first game back after his ankle injury. So I'm willing to give him a 1 half pass. Outside of that, I've seen none of the things discussed.
jurb26
Footballguy
I agree and I don't see any of those things when I watch Gurley,either. The Florida game is an interesting one because he looked so dominate in the 1st half. He displayed all of the things that are being said he doesn't do well. On his 1st carry he made a sick jump cut in the hole, exploded up field to run through a closing window and pick up extra yds. On his 1st TD he again made a silky smooth jump cut in the hole, powered thru a tackle attempt in the hole by lowering his pad level an driving his legs and proceeded to run thru 2 more tackle attempts before stretching for the end zone. He later that half had another nasty cut back at the LOS, ran thru a tackle before generating momentum and burst upfield for 30+. In the 2nd had he simply got gassed for the reason you stated.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
It's hard to make too big of a declaration on only 91 career carries, but personally I didn't notice any vision/instinct/goal-line work deficiency in Karlos Williams to be concerned about last year. Dude was cutting and sifting sifting through traffic quite well to my eyes. He looks to be too stiff in the hips to make multiple sharp cuts in quick succession, but he's more of a 1-cut-and-go back anyway so it's not a big deal imo. I do agree that his build is not exactly ideal, but I think those concerns may be a bit exaggerated. He definitely has real skinny calves for some reason, but he looks to have big powerful thighs which is more important for having a strong core anyway.
Some will argue that all things considered Karlos Williams has a higher bust likelihood than other backs but I'd probably argue the opposite. He's such a physical freak that I find it near impossible that he doesn't find himself in some meaningful role in the NFL. His combination of size and initial burst is just crazy. In that regard, and some others, he reminds me more of Adrian Peterson than about any RB prospect of the past 5ish years. He has the potential to be the consensus top RB in the NFL at some point in his career imo. Obviously he's not there yet, he needs to prove he can be successful in the pass game both receiving and blocking for starters, but I'd be more than willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in devy leagues right now.
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EBF
Footballguy
I think if Karlos were in the same ballpark as Peterson from a talent standpoint then he would've made a bigger splash earlier in his college career. James Wilder and Devonta Freeman aren't THAT good to keep a monster talent off the field. The main thing I think Peterson has on Karlos is elusiveness. While he's really fast, Peterson is also really elusive. His feet are very active and he has very loose hips to change directions. Karlos is more of a pure sprinter. He can destroy angles with his speed, but he's not adept at breaking down and making hard lateral cuts. Here's an interesting little experiment. Watch this video of Karlos and count how many times he makes a defender miss in an obvious 1v1 situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnaRCN6Vd_U
Now watch a Peterson highlight video and count the same thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwx-ZmCGi8
By my count Peterson had more after one minute than Karlos did in his entire four minute video. I think if you watch closely, the difference in their agility and elusiveness is clear. Peterson is a lot more creative overall. There are some runs on there like the two back-to-back at 1:16 that show a level of agility, balance, and footwork that I've never seen from Karlos. In my opinion Karlos is more in the vein of somebody like Darren McFadden or Knile Davis. More of a pure straight-line guy. I don't think he really belongs in a conversation with Peterson. It's an extremely optimistic comparison and IMO doesn't match his skill set.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnaRCN6Vd_U
Now watch a Peterson highlight video and count the same thing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGwx-ZmCGi8
By my count Peterson had more after one minute than Karlos did in his entire four minute video. I think if you watch closely, the difference in their agility and elusiveness is clear. Peterson is a lot more creative overall. There are some runs on there like the two back-to-back at 1:16 that show a level of agility, balance, and footwork that I've never seen from Karlos. In my opinion Karlos is more in the vein of somebody like Darren McFadden or Knile Davis. More of a pure straight-line guy. I don't think he really belongs in a conversation with Peterson. It's an extremely optimistic comparison and IMO doesn't match his skill set.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
If you re-read my post you'll see that I compared Williams to Peterson in regard to his combination of size and initial burst, not as all-around players. And I even mentioned Williams' agility "issues" earlier in that post, albeit I don't think they will be too big of a detriment in the end given his other skills; there's nothing wrong with being a 1-cut-and-go kind of RB, especially given Williams' other freakish abilities.
As for the McFadden comparison, they definitely have their similarities. But I think Williams is unquestionably heavier and more powerful. Plus I think Williams' agility is getting undersold in here. Sure it's not elite, but it's pretty damn adequate given the speed and size at which he's moving at. I think with a full workload of carries this year their will be a bigger sample size of carries where he shows off his agility.
As for why he didn't make a splash earlier in his career, that's quite simply explained by the fact that last year was his first at RB, he was playing on the other side of the ball as a Safety for his freshman and sophomore seasons. I think I remember reading that he didn't even start playing RB til midway through the FSU's training camp or something. There's even a highlight video of him as a safety where he makes some massive hits, further showing the power this guy has.
As for the McFadden comparison, they definitely have their similarities. But I think Williams is unquestionably heavier and more powerful. Plus I think Williams' agility is getting undersold in here. Sure it's not elite, but it's pretty damn adequate given the speed and size at which he's moving at. I think with a full workload of carries this year their will be a bigger sample size of carries where he shows off his agility.
As for why he didn't make a splash earlier in his career, that's quite simply explained by the fact that last year was his first at RB, he was playing on the other side of the ball as a Safety for his freshman and sophomore seasons. I think I remember reading that he didn't even start playing RB til midway through the FSU's training camp or something. There's even a highlight video of him as a safety where he makes some massive hits, further showing the power this guy has.
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jurb26
Footballguy
Gurley, not sudden easily slowed at the LOS and lack of explosiveness? Read this.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/47907/349/preseason-look-todd-gurley
Oddly enough, one of the plays I was referencing from the UF game is thoroughly dissected for all it's ridiculousness.
It isn't mentioned in the article but again these runs display the great pad level Gurley plays with. Notice his dip in pad level in the first clip vs. Auburn. He initiates contact, gets low and runs with high knees (see there is a reason every coach in America makes kids do the high knee drill in practice and it isn't to be annoying or punish) to generate momentum through the contact. It is a common trait of his and why he nearly always needs to be gang tackled. He isn't just big, fast and athletic. He's a big, athletic guy who knows how to use his size to his advantage.
http://www.rotoworld.com/articles/cfb/47907/349/preseason-look-todd-gurley
Oddly enough, one of the plays I was referencing from the UF game is thoroughly dissected for all it's ridiculousness.
It isn't mentioned in the article but again these runs display the great pad level Gurley plays with. Notice his dip in pad level in the first clip vs. Auburn. He initiates contact, gets low and runs with high knees (see there is a reason every coach in America makes kids do the high knee drill in practice and it isn't to be annoying or punish) to generate momentum through the contact. It is a common trait of his and why he nearly always needs to be gang tackled. He isn't just big, fast and athletic. He's a big, athletic guy who knows how to use his size to his advantage.
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Much more to playing RB than size/speed...I don't think Karlos Williams has "it." I also don't buy the well he played safety, etc. If you're "special" when you have a football in your hands, you know what to do. Hasn't he been playing football all his life and just suddenly forgot how to cut back across a defense? When I watched that AP college video(thanks EBF for posting, gosh I missed AP in college) special just jumps off the page. Watch Arian Foster with the ball in his hands(pre-injuries) and you see he has a natural feel for how to gash defenses/where to cut. Jahvid Best also was special in college. Karlos Williams bounces outside often, unless a huge hole is open in the middle. Maybe a light will click on for him, but I think it's something either you have or you don't.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_Vy61HobfM
Compare Gurley's highlights to Karlos and I just can't see how anyone rates Karlos higher. Gurley stiff arms more defenders away than Karlos makes miss in his whole highlight.
Compare Gurley's highlights to Karlos and I just can't see how anyone rates Karlos higher. Gurley stiff arms more defenders away than Karlos makes miss in his whole highlight.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Karlos Williams runs like a freight train but what concerns me so far is his lack of wiggle in the second level once he gets going. I almost think he will have to slow down or else he will have to rely on trying to either out run or run people over. From my LIMITED viewing of him it seems that he can't change directions at all once at top speed. I like him and think the DMC comparison is a very good one. Please post any video of him being at all elusive or having wiggle in the second level and beyond. I'm very open to changing my views on him but just haven't seen enough yet.
