2018 Redraft: What does the first round look like? (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Assuming 12-Team PPR (.1/1 Ru/Re, .1/2 Pa, 6 pt all TDs) give me your 1st round in 2018 redrafts. Feel free to hedge a bit & give rationalization for why you put who where if you’d like.

here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP. 

For bonus points, gimme your two surprises, and 1 head scratcher! 

1.01 - A Brown

1.02 - Nuk Hopkins

1.03 - Bell 

1.03b - DJohnson*

1.04 - Gurley

1.05 - Elliott 

1.06 - Allen

1.07 - Kamara

1.08 - MThomas

1.09 - Gordon 

1.10 - Hunt

1.11 - Ingram

1.12 - McCoy 

*i initially left DJ off my list, which was a mistake. That said, I’m not sure who’d drop off, or whether AZ’s QB issues will make DJ a top 5 pick or cause him to drop. If it’s Gabbart, hmmm. 

Maybe Kamara over Allen, maybe Hunt over Gordon, maybe MThomas in the bottom 3 picks. 

Surprises: Julio & AJGreen fall out of the 1st round.  

Head scratcher: Two top 12 picks from the same team. 

 

[-OZ-]

Assuming 12-Team PPR (.1/1 Ru/Re, .1/2 Pa, 6 pt all TDs) give me your 1st round in 2018 redrafts. Feel free to hedge a bit & give rationalization for why you put who where if you’d like.

here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP. 

For bonus points, gimme your two surprises, and 1 head scratcher! 

1.01 - A Brown

1.02 - Nuk Hopkins

1.03 - Bell 

1.04 - Gurley

1.05 - Elliott 

1.06 - Allen

1.07 - Kamara

1.08 - MThomas

1.09 - Gordon 

1.10 - Hunt

1.11 - Ingram

1.12 - McCoy 

Maybe Kamara over Allen, maybe Hunt over Gordon, maybe MThomas in the bottom 3 picks. 

Surprises: Julio & AJGreen fall out of the 1st round.  

Head scratcher: Two top 12 picks from the same team. 

Both Kamara and Ingram over DJ?

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Both Kamara and Ingram over DJ?

Oooooops! 

I left off DJ.  

DJ is top uh, 5? 

Maybe Ingram falls off. Or (gasp) maybe McCoy. 

 

[mikel2014]

Odell seems to be a forgotten guy. I've seen him omitted from a few lists like these. He's definitely mid first worthy regardless of QB situation. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Odell seems to be a forgotten guy. I've seen him omitted from a few lists like these. He's definitely mid first worthy regardless of QB situation. 

Yeah; but does that mean he’s a 2nd round bargain or that it’s an omission? 

Rememver, this isn’t a ranking list - it’s not where I think these players belong. It’s where I think they’ll be drafted.

i can’t see ODB in the top 12 next year given the disaster that the NYG are. Eli benching, coaching changes, still no run game - will the ‘sperts really make him a top 12? 

 

[BobbyLayne]

I’m pretty sure the consensus top 6 next year are going to be Bell, Brown, Elliott, Gurley, Hopkins, Johnson. In 2016 DJ was pretty dominant - in full PPR, 75 more than Elliott, 91 more than Bell, 99 more than Brown. I don’t think a wrist injury is going to deter anyone.

Gurley

DJ

Brown

Bell

Elliott

Hopkins

I don’t think OBJ will fall out of the first.

 

[barackdhouse]

I don't have any issue with your list. Except OBJ. He should go before Gordon and Allen. Who would I bump to include DJ and OBJ? Michael Thomas and either Gordon or McCoy. But I'm splitting hairs. Lots of RBs in the top 12. I also think Gronk should be in the discussion.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I don't have any issue with your list. Except OBJ. He should go before Gordon and Allen. Who would I bump to include DJ and OBJ? Michael Thomas and either Gordon or McCoy. But I'm splitting hairs. Lots of RBs in the top 12. I also think Gronk should be in the discussion.

Gronk is a possibility...but I’m not sure his adp will be that high. Kelce was better on a per game basis I believe, plus the perception that he misses games every year. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I’m pretty sure the consensus top 6 next year are going to be Bell, Brown, Elliott, Gurley, Hopkins, Johnson. In 2016 DJ was pretty dominant - in full PPR, 75 more than Elliott, 91 more than Bell, 99 more than Brown. I don’t think a wrist injury is going to deter anyone.

Gurley

DJ

Brown

Bell

Elliott

Hopkins

I don’t think OBJ will fall out of the first.

Agree with your top 6, in some order. AB/Gurley will likely be 1-2, but I could see Hopkins sneak in there. 

Exciting to see how deep the 1st will be for a change. It’s been pretty top heavy the last couple of years, with the top 1-3 being a consensus and the bottom 9 a total crap shoot.

I’m drooling at the possibility of AJ Green, Hunt, Julio, McCoy or ODB as 2nd rounders. It’s possible. 

Seems like picks 9-12 are going to be really profitable in 12-team redrafts next year. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Exciting to see how deep the 1st will be for a change. It’s been pretty top heavy the last couple of years, with the top 1-3 being a consensus and the bottom 9 a total crap shoot.

I’m drooling at the possibility of AJ Green, Hunt, Julio, McCoy or ODB as 2nd rounders. It’s possible. 

Seems like picks 9-12 are going to be really profitable in 12-team redrafts next year. 

Yes yes and yes. I think it will be remarkably deep. It also seems there is a RB renaissance, especially with next year's rookie crop. I believe the FF world will see it that way, too, whether it is real or imagined.

 

[barackdhouse]

Gronk is a possibility...but I’m not sure his adp will be that high. Kelce was better on a per game basis I believe, plus the perception that he misses games every year. 

Yeah I mean I think he goes late 1st round in a number of leagues. Early mid 2nd in more leagues, though. He was mostly healthy this year, but that question will always follow him.

 

[Ack88]

Assuming 12-Team PPR (.1/1 Ru/Re, .1/2 Pa, 6 pt all TDs) give me your 1st round in 2018 redrafts. Feel free to hedge a bit & give rationalization for why you put who where if you’d like.

here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP. 

For bonus points, gimme your two surprises, and 1 head scratcher! 

1.01 - A Brown

1.02 - Nuk Hopkins

1.03 - Bell 

1.03b - DJohnson*

1.04 - Gurley

1.05 - Elliott 

1.06 - Allen

1.07 - Kamara

1.08 - MThomas

1.09 - Gordon 

1.10 - Hunt

1.11 - Ingram

1.12 - McCoy 

*i initially left DJ off my list, which was a mistake. That said, I’m not sure who’d drop off, or whether AZ’s QB issues will make DJ a top 5 pick or cause him to drop. If it’s Gabbart, hmmm. 

Maybe Kamara over Allen, maybe Hunt over Gordon, maybe MThomas in the bottom 3 picks. 

Surprises: Julio & AJGreen fall out of the 1st round.  

Head scratcher: Two top 12 picks from the same team. 

I'll give this a whirl:

1. Zeke

2. Bell

3. Gurley

4. Brown

5. Hopkins

6. ODB

7. Julio

8. David Johnson

9. Kamara

10. AJ Green

11. Gordon

12. Gronk

 

[menobrown]

Yes yes and yes. I think it will be remarkably deep. It also seems there is a RB renaissance, especially with next year's rookie crop. I believe the FF world will see it that way, too, whether it is real or imagined.

If they don't they probably are not very good at this since we are wrapping up two seasons in row of the RB renaissance.

But here is what is interesting to me. Since RB is now deeper than I've ever seen it and stud WR's on the thin side, would it now make more sense than ever to not go RB the first few picks? I've always preferred RB to WR myself, but I know right now if I had pick 1.1 I'd take Brown and feel like I'd easily get two RB's at 2/3 turn if I was so inclined.

 

[-OZ-]

Are people still taking aj green in the first? He's barely a wr1 this year. Maybe Marvin leaving helps but it seems way too early. 

Julio too, to a lesser extent, seems a reach now. At least he should be better next year than his current #10 wr ranking.

 

[JohnnyU]

I would draft Barkley over McCoy, Gordon and Ingram, even in a redraft.  Especially Gordon.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I'll give this a whirl:

1. Zeke

2. Bell

3. Gurley

4. Brown

5. Hopkins

6. ODB

7. Julio

8. David Johnson

9. Kamara

10. AJ Green

11. Gordon

12. Gronk

ODB over DJ, Kamara & Gordon. 

Not sure the fantasy community will have that much faith in ODB next year but you might be right.  

Hard to know where the ‘sperts will put him. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Are people still taking aj green in the first? He's barely a wr1 this year. Maybe Marvin leaving helps but it seems way too early. 

Julio too, to a lesser extent, seems a reach now. At least he should be better next year than his current #10 wr ranking.

Yeah - I wouldn’t touch any of ODB, AJG or Julio until the 2nd. 

Julio invariably has that 1 monster game where everyone goes, “imagine that for 16 games!!!  “

fool’s gold. 

I trust AJG to be more consistent, but the Bengals are a mess at QB. 

So yea - tough to see them as 1st rounders. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would draft Barkley over McCoy, Gordon and Ingram, even in a redraft.  Especially Gordon.

Doesn’t that depend on what team drafts him? 

 

[JohnnyU]

Doesn’t that depend on what team drafts him? 

I expect he will be the bell cow to whatever team drafts him.  Don't look for a team with a stud RB to draft him.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

If they don't they probably are not very good at this since we are wrapping up two seasons in row of the RB renaissance.

But here is what is interesting to me. Since RB is now deeper than I've ever seen it and stud WR's on the thin side, would it now make more sense than ever to not go RB the first few picks? I've always preferred RB to WR myself, but I know right now if I had pick 1.1 I'd take Brown and feel like I'd easily get two RB's at 2/3 turn if I was so inclined.

Definitely. But recency bias always plays a role. This was a tough year to nail down - on the one hand, 2018 is chalk full of RBs, yes, but a few of those are guys who got hurt in 2017 like DJ & Cook. Both elite, both likely left their owners scrambling for RB help. Especially if they went WR heavy early in the case of Cook and other 2nd-3rd round picks. 

2018 is kind of a crap shoot - I would definitely take an elite WR top 6 over a RB because of RB depth, but it’s hard to say how the fantasy world at large will handle this. 

I agree that last year was the true RB renaissance. That said, we didn’t return to the era of fantasy managers taking RB with their first 2, 3 or 4 picks.  I remember when it wasn’t that shocking to see someone go 3-4 deep.  The idea was they were adding both depth & trade-able commodities. 

We’re not quite full circle there - not sure we ever will go back to that. 

 

[barackdhouse]

If they don't they probably are not very good at this since we are wrapping up two seasons in row of the RB renaissance.

But here is what is interesting to me. Since RB is now deeper than I've ever seen it and stud WR's on the thin side, would it now make more sense than ever to not go RB the first few picks? I've always preferred RB to WR myself, but I know right now if I had pick 1.1 I'd take Brown and feel like I'd easily get two RB's at 2/3 turn if I was so inclined.

Yeah I'd have a legitimately hard time at 1.01. Many good options. Am sure we will see high variance from mid first to 4th round. I think I'd have to agree with other commenter about including Barkley in the top 12. Certainly will in many leagues. Couple other rookie RBs are sure to be ranked high. We've also left out Fournette, Mixon, Cook, Freeman, McCaffery, and with names we think might slip out of the 1st we practically have our 2nd round ADP populated. ODB, Gronk, Thomas, Keenan, Julio, and some combo of McCoy, Gordon or Ingram/Kamara. 

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I'll give this a whirl:

1. Zeke

2. Bell

3. Gurley

4. Brown

5. Hopkins

6. ODB

7. Julio

8. David Johnson

9. Kamara

10. AJ Green

11. Gordon

12. Gronk

Nice first effort. Agree that Zeke has to be top two given the opportunity and talent. I suspect he will be extremely motivated given his treatment by the league office. 

I have a hard time keeping AB out of the top 3. Julio and AJ inconsistency pushes them out of the 1st Rd IMO. I would also pass on Gronk in the 1st as well due to his injury history. 

I would consider adding D. Cook and Freeman to the top 12.

 

[-OZ-]

I expect he will be the bell cow to whatever team drafts him.  Don't look for a team with a stud RB to draft him.

While that's probably true, I trust McCoy to perform and Gordon is a known bell cow. Might be at risk of slowing down and he seems to need the workload. 

Ingram is hard to judge. Presuming he stays in NO (and I suspect he will) he'll probably lose more carries to Kamara and I don't know that the offense can support two top ten backs next year. 

If Barkley lands in Cleveland or Tampa Bay he's behind McCoy, close to Gordon imo.  Giants, 49ers or colts? He becomes a top 5 possibly.

 

[menobrown]

I would draft Barkley over McCoy, Gordon and Ingram, even in a redraft.  Especially Gordon.

As would I

 

[barackdhouse]

1.01 Brown

1.02 Nuk

1.03 Gurley

1.04 Bell

1.05 Zeke

1.06 DJ

1.07 ODB

1.08 Barkley

1.09 Hunt

1.10 Cook

1.11 Ingram

1.12 Julio

2.01 Kamara

2.02 Gordon

2.03 McCoy

2.04 Gronk

2.05 Green

2.06 Fournette

2.07 Freeman

2.08 Mixon

2.09 McCaffery

2.10 Keenan

2.11 MThomas

2.12 rookie RB #2

A lot of this is interchangeble. My first pass at this but wow.

 

[menobrown]

1.01 Brown

1.02 Nuk

1.03 Gurley

1.04 Bell

1.05 Zeke

1.06 DJ

1.07 ODB

1.08 Barkley

1.09 Hunt

1.10 Cook

1.11 Ingram

1.12 Julio

2.01 Kamara

2.02 Gordon

2.03 McCoy

2.04 Gronk

2.05 Green

2.06 Fournette

2.07 Freeman

2.08 Mixon

2.09 McCaffery

2.10 Keenan

2.11 MThomas

2.12 rookie RB #2

A lot of this is interchangeble. My first pass at this but wow.

Good list, I like it a lot. I had same top 7 as you, in different order, but same top 7. I'd have probably gone a little more off direction after that but a good list.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I would consider adding D. Cook and Freeman to the top 12.

Freeman may slide a little if Coleman is back,  but I agree he will likely be eight through 12 pack. 

I think cook faster the second, but doesn’t make it to the third. Injury discount. 

 

[barackdhouse]

Good list, I like it a lot. I had same top 7 as you, in different order, but same top 7. I'd have probably gone a little more off direction after that but a good list.

That second round is full of first round talent. And the top 7 is insane. And I wouldn't argue with any of those 2nd rounders being in the 1st. 

 

[-OZ-]

1.01 Gurley 

1.02 zeke

1.03 AB

1.04 Bell

1.05 NUK

1.06 DJ

1.07 Hunt

1.08 McCoy

1.09 Barkley

1.10 Fournette

1.11 ODB

1.12 Cook

2.01 Kamara

2.02 Gronk

2.03 Gordon

2.04  Julio

2.05 Green

2.06 Ingram

2.07 Freeman

2.08 Mixon

2.09 MThomas

2.10 Keenan

2.11 Hill

2.12 McCaffrey

I might have Ingram too low. And I actually own him in a dynasty. And too high on fournette, whom I own nowhere.

 

[Pwingles]

In no particular order;

Bell, Zeke, DJ, Kamara, Hunt, Gurley, Gordon, Fournette

AB, Nuk, ODB, Thomas

 

[TheJewru]

1 Bell

2 Gurley

3 Zeke

4 Brown

5 David Johnson

6  Hopkins

7  Kamara

8 ODB

9 Hunt

10 Cook ( Well I would take him here)

11 Julio

12 Fournette 

 

[NYRAGE]

1.01 - Bell -  Injury concerns aside, people move back to taking him first.

1.02 - Gurley - Top offense that should get better

1.03 - Brown -  As sure of a thing as it comes

1.04 -David Johnson - Recency bias causes him to slip to 4

1.05 - Hopkins - Not only is he QB-proof now, he gets Watson to boost his value

1.06 -  Kamara - Shiny new toy moves him ahead of others

1.07 - Elliott  - Quite the value at this point

1.08 -  Beckham - People just love Odell

1.09 - Hunt - Late performance will make people forget about the mid-season lull and hype builds again

1.10 -  Ingram - Underrated by many

1.11 -  K. Allen-  Lots of RBs on the way back, so time to get a top WR

1.12 -  M Thomas - Lots of RBs, so people will take Thomas or Julio here

Top 25 (no rookies yet)

13. Julio (always dinged up so finally slips out of the first round), 14 McCoy (age concerns) 15 D. Cook (most won't be concerned about the ACL),  16 Green, 17 Fournette, 18 Gordon (people will call him an average talent and worry about Ekeler or other RB taking snaps), 19 McCaffrey, 20 Freeman , 21 Gronk,  22 Adams, 23 Drake (like Ajayi this year will get offseason hype), 24 Nelson, 25 Kelce

 

[Aunt Jemima]

I think a few things need to be determined first. 1 - Is Ben back in Pittsburgh or does he hang it up? If he does retire, what does that do to Brown's value? don't think he'd be 1.1 unless they got Cousins or equivalent. 2 - Does Ingram make all-pro? if he does 18 contract is voided and he is a free agent, where does he wind up and what does that do to his and Kamara's value?

 

[hardcoredx]

Fournette, Hunt, and  Freeman>>> Julio 

 

[TheDirtyWord]

1.01 - 1.08 would be some combination of LeVeon, Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt, Antonio, Hopkins.  Surprised by how Fournette isn’t registering that high, but he’s an undisputed workhorse.  Production this year hampered by injury/suspension.  Would caveat Hopkins on Watson health reports.

Right in this area has to also be Saquon Barkley.  Record of Top 5 RB picks last two years has been very high and Barkley has this pedigree.  I don’t even think it matters what team he winds up on.

McCoy is a guy I feel like the drafting community will decide has gotten old during the off-season.  His YPC down from 5.4 in 2016 to 4.1.  Drafters will trend that to below 4 in their evals.  Melvin Gordon feels like a pure volume play so any effort to decrease his snap counts (veteran compliment or Day1/2 RB pick) should be viewed with trepidation.  Devonta should also be considered late Round 1...even with Sark screwing the pooch, his per game metrics still very good. 

As far as dark horse plays, Run-CMC could wind up being a big riser considering Stewart could be a cap casualty.  But he’s likely Round 2.  Dalvin as well...the darkest of horses could be Carlos Hyde.  SF will have to ‘declare their intentions’ with him this off-season and if they re-sign him...that offense looks like it could be in for a quick turnaround.  Same in CHI with Jordan Howard.  New regime there will be huge.

I love Kamara, but his efficiency levels in 2017 don’t feel repeatable and coaches will spend the bulk of the off-season building a knowledge base of how to slow him down.  Likely still a late first rounder, but I’d exercise caution.  The time share with Ingram worked, but their production feels maxed out so long as they are together.

The next tier of WR seems less than first round worthy to me given recent production.  

Julio - can’t get into the EZ and gets nicked up a lot

Keenan - the lack of TD’s here concerning as well and while he made it out of 2017 unscathed, durability echoes might still exist.

OBJ - too early to know.  w/Manning - possible.  No Manning (rookie) - no way.  Even if Manning is there, but they draft a QB in Top 5, no way.

MThomas - consolation 1/2 turn guy.

AJ - feel him dropping to Round 2.  Don’t know if Marvin is the issue as much as Dalton is.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I think a few things need to be determined first. 1 - Is Ben back in Pittsburgh or does he hang it up? If he does retire, what does that do to Brown's value? don't think he'd be 1.1 unless they got Cousins or equivalent. 2 - Does Ingram make all-pro? if he does 18 contract is voided and he is a free agent, where does he wind up and what does that do to his and Kamara's value?

1. Ben retires, Bell is still in my top 3, but AB’s value depends on replacement QB. 

2. Ingram moves, Kamara’a value skyrockets to top 4, easily. Ingram’s future value will depend on where he goes. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

1.01 - 1.08 would be some combination of LeVeon, Gurley, DJ, Zeke, Fournette, Hunt, Antonio, Hopkins.  Surprised by how Fournette isn’t registering that high, but he’s an undisputed workhorse.  Production this year hampered by injury/suspension.  Would caveat Hopkins on Watson health reports.

Good post - lots of good takes. 

On this first one, I’d say Hopkins is QB-proof at this point. He has to be in the top 8 regardless of Watson. Almost better for redraft value to both if Watson’s recovery is slow & he isn’t back until game 2 or 3. 

Right in this area has to also be Saquon Barkley.  Record of Top 5 RB picks last two years has been very high and Barkley has this pedigree.  I don’t even think it matters what team he winds up on.

on this one I dunno - if the Niners take him at 1.05 and go RBBC with Hyde that would likely matter for he worse...  

Or if Seattle trades up to take him & also improves their OL it would matter for the better. 

Top 9 seems awfully high for a rookie RB due to the depth at the position & also the known commodities in the top 12. Dalvin Cook had tremendous pedigree & looked legit AF in the preseason & still only rose to mid-to-late 2nd in ADP this year.

McCoy is a guy I feel like the drafting community will decide has gotten old during the off-season.  His YPC down from 5.4 in 2016 to 4.1.  Drafters will trend that to below 4 in their evals.

Agreed. And the overall sorry state of the Bills offense as well. But the future is bright and IMO shady will again become a value pick in the 2nd round. 

 Melvin Gordon feels like a pure volume play so any effort to decrease his snap counts (veteran compliment or Day1/2 RB pick) should be viewed with trepidation.  Devonta should also be considered late Round 1...even with Sark screwing the pooch, his per game metrics still very good. 

Love freeman, hate his OC. But Year 2 things might improve - still, with Coleman in there, I’m not sure he’ll be viewed as top 12. 

love Gordon’s volume, but man is this dude disappointing on a per touch basis. With Gordon you’re basically drafting for his floor since his ceiling just isn’t that great. That said, I could see the fantasy community propping him up top12 based on volume 

As far as dark horse plays, Run-CMC could wind up being a big riser considering Stewart could be a cap casualty.  But he’s likely Round 2.  Dalvin as well...the darkest of horses could be Carlos Hyde.  SF will have to ‘declare their intentions’ with him this off-season and if they re-sign him...that offense looks like it could be in for a quick turnaround.  Same in CHI with Jordan Howard.  New regime there will be huge.

I love Kamara, but his efficiency levels in 2017 don’t feel repeatable and coaches will spend the bulk of the off-season building a knowledge base of how to slow him down.  Likely still a late first rounder, but I’d exercise caution.  The time share with Ingram worked, but their production feels maxed out so long as they are together.

The next tier of WR seems less than first round worthy to me given recent production.  

Julio - can’t get into the EZ and gets nicked up a lot

Keenan - the lack of TD’s here concerning as well and while he made it out of 2017 unscathed, durability echoes might still exist.

OBJ - too early to know.  w/Manning - possible.  No Manning (rookie) - no way.  Even if Manning is there, but they draft a QB in Top 5, no way.

MThomas - consolation 1/2 turn guy.

AJ - feel him dropping to Round 2.  Don’t know if Marvin is the issue as much as Dalton is.

Agree on AJG, ODB, Julio & Keenan. I could easily see all 3 falling to the 2nd. Or late 1st where someone will be sitting at 10,11 or 12 with 4 RB on the board they like and only one Julio Jones - having been in that position I know how much better Jones looks at that point. I still think he’s fool’s gold. 

Michael Thomas seems like a better pick than those guys based on his floor, while having a strong ceiling as well. But when draft day hits I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see at least 2 of them go before MT on brand recognition. 

 

[Ack88]

ODB over DJ, Kamara & Gordon. 

Not sure the fantasy community will have that much faith in ODB next year but you might be right.  

Hard to know where the ‘sperts will put him. 

OBD’s biggest issue is who will be under center. If Eli goes and a rookie comes in, think he falls back a number of spots. Still, he is an otherworldly talent that should remain in round 1, regardless of QB.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

OBD’s biggest issue is who will be under center. If Eli goes and a rookie comes in, think he falls back a number of spots. Still, he is an otherworldly talent that should remain in round 1, regardless of QB.

 Maybe… The injury bug seems to keep nickng him up, and as you mentioned, the quarterback situation is difficult. Add to that the Giants have a pretty terrible OL, and no  running game to speak of. There just seem to be too many questions surrounding this team.

 That said, you might be right in terms of how the Fantasy community views in. Personally, I wouldn’t touch them until the second round. I kind of don’t want him at all. 

 

[kutta]

If I’m drafting anywhere and DJ falls to me, I’m happy. We forget how good he was last year. I would take him at 1.01 in 10 out of 10 drafts.

Now, if Arians bails, I’d have to get a read on the new coach, but I think Arians is more important to DJ’s value than Palmer is.

 

[NYRAGE]

Lots of things can happen between here and next August/Sept. I think at this point you have to make a list based on what you know although it's always fun to speculate, too. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Lots of things can happen between here and next August/Sept. I think at this point you have to make a list based on what you know although it's always fun to speculate, too. 

Well of course - but the point is to see how the community is thinking about these guys. Who jumps into the top 12, who falls out...

The sharks here are a dedicated community - getting dialogue going now can help us all evaluate value picks come August/September. Maybe some of our consensus picks here don’t make the 1st round on the ‘sperts rankings, making them a potential draft day steal.

no on here’s claiming to be Nostradamus - just getting the conversation started has value. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Ingram in the 1st? lol.  No.  And no way Kamara deserves to be a 1st rounder.  He doesn't touch the ball enough.  I don't believe his pace is possible to continue longterm, touching the ball that few times.  Those that draft either of these in the 1st round next year will be disappointed.

He is the 4th highest scoring RB. Ingram the 5th. More points than Freeman, Gordon, McCoy, Fournette, etc. 

kamara is also the 4th best player of any RB/WR/TE, and 18th overall player this year, which includes QBs. 

Since in most leagues, folks wait past the first round on QBs, I don’t see how you can keep Kamara out of the top 12 in PPR. 

 

[joey]

If I'm sitting at an early 1st rounder, I'm loving the idea of grabbing Adams as my second WR judging by these lists (and assuming he resigns in GB)

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

That's great if we were playing 2017 all over again.  But alas, we aren't.  You really think that Kamara is going to be a top 10 player rushing the ball less than 10 times per game?  And even if you think he's going to get the rock more often next year, it is coming at the expense of Ingram.  And if he doesn't get more snaps, good luck trying to keep up this unprecedented pace.  I'll take McCoy at 1.12 over Kamara any day.

I think it’s irrelevant that he only runs the ball 10x since he has 75 receptions in 14 games (and one drive in the 15th) 

and also worth observing, his workload was increasing as the season went on. 

So yes - with 15+ touches per game (5.3 receptions) I absolutely believe he’ll be as good if not better in his 2nd year.

The saints have made him the centerpiece of their offense and it’s apparent they will continue to do so. 

Ingram is more game-script defendant, whereas Kamara is situation proof. If the saints fall behind, he’s a primary receiving target. If they get up, he’s a COP back.  His weekly floor and ceiling are among the highest in fantasy.

we can agree to disagree, but it’s disingenuous to say that Kamara only gets 10 carries while disregarding his receptions. 

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

There have been plenty of RB's that get 70 receptions.  But none of them, that also get less than 10 rushes, are worthy of a 1st round pick, let alone 1st round consideration.  He needs to keep up his TD pace, which he is 12 of them in essentially 8 full time games.  If that's the pace you that you think he is going to keep up, after the NFL has an off-season to game plan around him, be my guest and select him at 1.07-1.12.  It's just not going to be me.

I didn’t say I would. 

You seem to be missing the point of this topic. We’re not ranking players.

we’re guesstimating where we think they’ll be drafted.

And it’s a virtual lock that the fantasy community will have Kamara in the top 12.

whether he deserves it or will live up to that selection is another discussion for another topic. I’m not sure why you’re arguing it here or being so confrontational. 



ETA: also worth noting, when you have a HOF QB making you a primary red zone target, I think he will score 12-15 TDs if he stays healthy. So I might actually take him at the back end of the 1st, depending on who else is there & what I think will fall to me in the 2nd. 

 

[menobrown]

2. Ingram moves,

No that won't happen because he's not making All-Pro and neither player or team have any interest in parting ways.

 

[menobrown]

There have been plenty of RB's that get 70 receptions.  But none of them, that also get less than 10 rushes, are worthy of a 1st round pick, let alone 1st round consideration.  He needs to keep up his TD pace, which he is 12 of them in essentially 8 full time games.  If that's the pace you that you think he is going to keep up, after the NFL has an off-season to game plan around him, be my guest and select him at 1.07-1.12.  It's just not going to be me.

I was just telling a friend of mine last week when he told me Kamara would be a firs round pick next year that he needs to wait until the off season and we get 9 months of regression to the mean, can't keep up his TD talk. And here we are.

I don't buy any of it. Look my posts up if you don't believe me but I said over and over again before this season that he did not need many carries to be a RB1. I continually pointed out that Sproles and Reggie were both RB1's in this offense at less than 10 carries a game. Sproles was around 5 carries a game and Reggie a little more but neither of them were in Kamara's league as a runner.  He's real, he's legit, he's not regressing and as I said before this season he don't need a lot of carries to justify his ADP.

 

[menobrown]

That's all fine and dandy, but Bushn nor Sprolesn were never in consideration of a 1st round pick.  I'm not debating Kamara's talent.  Kid is talented.  But he's not worthy of a 1st rounder next year, and I wouldn't want to bet anything that he tops 10 TD's in 2018.

There are years Sproles and Bush should have been and is that not the point? And again, neither of those two are in his league to the talent does matter.

ETA-also your comment they were never first round picks is wrong. The first year FFPC started I drafted Reggie Bush at pick 11. That year he was RB1 till like week 7 IIRC and then suffered a knee injury. So he was not only in consideration as a first round pick, he was a first round pick and until he got hurt was worth every bit I paid for him. That's what it will take Kamara to not produce first round numbers,  get hurt.

 

[Mr. Know-It-All]

Assuming 12-Team PPR (.1/1 Ru/Re, .1/2 Pa, 6 pt all TDs) give me your 1st round in 2018 redrafts. Feel free to hedge a bit & give rationalization for why you put who where if you’d like.

here’s my best guess -  note, this isn’t my ranking. Just a prediction for 1st round / ADP. 

For bonus points, gimme your two surprises, and 1 head scratcher! 

1.01 - A Brown - (1.01)

1.02 - Nuk Hopkins (1.11)

1.03 - Bell (1.02)

1.03b - DJohnson* (1.05)

1.04 - Gurley (1.03)

1.05 - Elliott (1.04)

1.06 - Allen

1.07 - Kamara (1.06)

1.08 - MThomas (1.12)

1.09 - Gordon (1.09)

1.10 - Hunt (1.08)

1.11 - Ingram

1.12 - McCoy 

*i initially left DJ off my list, which was a mistake. That said, I’m not sure who’d drop off, or whether AZ’s QB issues will make DJ a top 5 pick or cause him to drop. If it’s Gabbart, hmmm. 

Maybe Kamara over Allen, maybe Hunt over Gordon, maybe MThomas in the bottom 3 picks. 

Surprises: Julio & AJGreen fall out of the 1st round.  

Head scratcher: Two top 12 picks from the same team. 

1.07 - McCaffrey

1.10 - Julio Jones

Think my McCaffrey might be a reach, but a lot to like.

Also know that typically my leagues have 2 QBs go in the first round, but there will be enough depth at QB that I really don't care.  I'd take a Watson/Newton/Winston/Prescott after the big name/older qbs go early.  Wilson will go too early next year.  Brady has to be getting close to the dropoff but will go early - same with Rodgers coming back from injury.